From Money.com:
5 Cities Where Home Prices Are Most Likely to Fall Next Year
It’s been quite a turnaround for the once-hot housing market: Home prices are already falling in many cities, and there’s more where that came from.
New data from real estate company CoreLogic predicts the cities that are most at risk of home price declines over the next year. Here are the top five:
- Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Florida
- Bremerton-Silverdale, Washington
- Bellingham, Washington
- Boise City, Idaho
- Reno, Nevada
Each city on the list has a more than 70% chance that prices will fall, according to CoreLogic’s analysis.
In some cases, price declines are already underway. In August, home prices in Boise City were 3% lower than they were a year earlier, according to data from real estate brokerage Redfin. The city was also named by home-financing startup Knock as one of a handful of places where homebuyers now have the advantage over home sellers — a clear sign of a major shift in the real estate market there.
Frist
first to be second
Chi – Pres will be in town 3:55 PM. I surmise he is flying into the Earle base by you and then driving to Murphy’s spread on the river.. Lots of road closures, don’t get caught your only option will be to walk home if the road is closed for two hours or more.
I read that lots of celebs will be at this soirée for the DNC…
https://tinyurl.com/yc2236eh
It’s my son’s B-day too, we are supposed to go out for Hibachi…hope the roads are open in time for my reservation.
If you look at Zillow/Realtor/Trulia, etc. and search on recently reduced hovels in the NJ/NY area, you’ll come up with practically nothing. You can classify this area as stoutly wealthy or in debt up to their muppet chins. Either way, houses sell in this area and they sell for a lot. For the muppet slobs that step in shit and make a score, congratulations; you’ve joined the blind squirrel club. For the house guides that happen to be wedged between buyer and seller and score a commission check, congratulations for living to pay your bills another day.
Don’t think Earle has an airstrip? Wall would be easy but too small.
Newark or McGuire. Likely Newark.
McGuire has too many back roads to block up until you can get to 295 or 195.
Maybe fighter base near AC? Straight shot up the Parkway.
I’ll be at my golf course this afternoon near McGuire. Maybe AF1 will do a flyby.
This explains why Bon Jovi and The Boss were at Jersey Freeze together.
They flew Al Gore into Wall once and I got caught in that. They could go to Lakehurst as well?
Bon Jovi… ha. I assume you guys are aware that his voice has turned into Yoko Ono, yes? Like, his voice fell off a cliff harder than Wiley E. Coyote. If you’re into conspiracy theories, one wonders if his voice was never that great to begin with and was somehow enhanced in recordings and live performance. Come on, guys like Sinatra and Bennett, Jagger and Tyler, etc. never lost their signature voices. You could say guys like Robert Plant lost a bit off his fast ball with age but was still in the game. Bon Jovi just went into off key mode real fast. Most overrated band ever, anyway. But… hmmm…
Guy loses a job, family homeless, then it has to deal with this. America is quickly becoming the s hole country it claims other countries are. Bunch of hypocrites.
Homeless family of 5 attacked in drive-by shooting: Tampa police.
According to Tampa Police Chief Mary O’Connor, the family of five, consisting of 3 young children, a father, and a pregnant mother of nine months, were sleeping in a car when an unknown vehicle approached around 4:30 a.m., opened fire, and drove off.
Phoenix,
we are likely to approach Brazil, high GDP, but rampant crime.
Eddie,
You only have to last long enough to make a lifetime amount of money in a short period.
You are even seeing some football players quit early, they got the bucks, then get out.
Everyone laughs at the influencers- make 30M when you are 20 dancing on TikTok, you are set for life, no reason to toil in mundane job for 30 years for ungrateful Americans.
we are likely to approach Brazil, high GDP, but rampant crime.
Well, crime really is another form of capitalism, isn’t it? Money is the primary motivation.
Didn’t a capitalist say “Greed is good?” Who get’s to decide which greed is really better?
A quote from the Blacklist- “Anyone who says crime doesn’t pay isn’t doing it right.”
McGuire / Lakehurst / Ft Dix all one big base now. Called Joint MDL.
Phoenix,
You’re being willfully wrong again.
Hughes – As the crow flies… I don’t think they will fly AF1 around that much, there is not allot of time between stops, definitely not enough to drive.
Here is the schedule first stop today Poughkeepsie via AF1 then perhaps a short heli flight as the crow flies of about 90 miles by air for Murphy’s fundraiser, then back to Manhattan for another fundraiser and then a flight home from Wall St Heliport to Newark airport then back on AF1 perhaps to Joint Base Andrews. It’s allot of flying for sure.
https://factba.se/biden/calendar
I was near Stewart yesterday. Maybe I’m being followed.
For the Marxists:
“Does economic freedom lead to more or less conflict? Numerous authors argue that markets create conflict, whereas many advocates of economic freedom from Adam Smith to Milton Friedman argued the opposite. This topic has not yet been investigated empirically. This article examines the various ideas regarding why economic freedom may reduce conflict and why government intervention might increase it. Then the article looks at cross-national data to determine whether measures of markets and conflict are correlated. It finds that in a cross section of countries, measures of economic freedom are significantly and negatively correlated with homicide rates. These results hold under various tests for robustness. Increases in economic freedom do appear to be associated with decreases in homicide rates.”
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1730022
“We worry that in the Treasury market today, given its fragility, any type of large shock really runs the risk of un-anchoring Treasury yields,” said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America.”
Chi, what do you think happens when the treasury rates start to fall in I-bonds. Everyone and their mothers bought their 10 to 15K in bonds this year to the tune of at least 20 billion (from treasury direct alone). The moment the FED announces they are going to lower the FFR (sometime in 2023 I would presume), everyone is hitting the off ramp at the same time. Hopefully, 20 billion in simultaneous redemptions won’t be enough to cause an issue.
“Called Joint MDL.”
I drive through there when I want to go the backway to AC due to GSP shore traffic. It adds about 45 minutes to the non-traffic trip down the GSP, but it’s so much more of a pleasurable trip.
Was this you Leftwing, BRT?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-05/wells-fargo-says-one-big-option-trade-fueled-s-p-500-midday-jump
When Regan was president he flew in and landed at my school on the baseball fields for a speech. In and out really quick, perhaps an hour or so, it was interesting to watch, they had a stage and seating all setup too.
Marine One is the preferred mode of transport, flight over motorcades as the latter require hundreds of cops for blocking roads etc. I don’t think they can motorcade it here from Newark Airport.. Shutting down major highways for hours like the Turnpike and Parkway for the 37 mile drive.
I did see an Osprey yesterday flying low right over my house, sucker is real loud too. That to me is the tipoff he will be flying into the base or even a school fields nearby, there are plenty of open fields down here to land a helicopter on. Our Mayor was on FB “complaining” said there will be 30 cops in our town alone assigned for controlling traffic and blocking roads, and we have to pay the OT for it. They also fly decoy helicopters too….should be getting real loud around 3:30 PM…
I would think there will be a few people out there holding up signs on Rt 35. They do it to our Governor as well a few times a year, are are well practiced at protesting.
Lib,
I-bonds are pegged to the inflation rate, not Treasuries.
Lib: I don’t see the Fed lowering the FFR until 2024. I believe they either continue to raise rates in early 2023, and then do nothing for the remainder of the year. I also don’t see people off loading i bonds even if the Fed lowers FFR in 2023. The October reset rate will still be attractive for another 6 months.
Governor Murphy following in Biden’s footsteps . . .
He seems to be re-growing hair on portions of his head that were previously bald, I suppose in hopes of presidential ambitions? Jarring hair difference, in my opinion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94xFHJbxBgk
Condo,
I know, thank you. But one would expect the interest rate to be pretty low when the FED gets back to lowering the FFR to restart the stalled economy that I see happening later this year or perhaps early next year. My guess is that inflation is going to curtail Xmas spending, especially travel. This will result in a further decline in earnings.
I think Murphy needs a serious haircut. I see his public image campaign continues to grow nearly as quickly as his hair.
Lib: Do you really expect the Fed to possibly start lowering this year? I don’t see it. Even Powell has said the risk is there of reigniting inflation were they to pivot and lower rates too soon. Way to much inflation in this economy for any pivot short term. If the economy stalls, then it stalls.
8:20 . . .
According to NJMLS, there are 281 single-family houses that have had a price drop in the last 15 days.
https://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.results&proptype=1&status=A&mlsSearch=1&minprice=&maxprice=&pricechanged=true&daysSince=15
3B, late 2023 would be my best guess. Two out of Five urinal pucks of confidence.
Some news on Murphy that his fixers have kept on the downlow.
https://nj1015.com/new-jersey-records-one-of-nations-biggest-spikes-in-poverty/
https://nj1015.com/federal-report-finds-bad-news-for-new-jersey-economy/
Lol Governor’s hair is funny…Propecia perhaps. Looks like the Gov had his choppers whitened too, he has not gone full on horse choppers with dental veneers like Biden or has done botox and probably fillers and face lift like sleepy Joe. He would need to take off a few weeks for recovery.
Mass shooting at day care center in Thailand. 37 dead. 22 children. Pretty fucked up.
Was this you Leftwing, BRT?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-05/wells-fargo-says-one-big-option-trade-fueled-s-p-500-midday-jump
No, but I was messing around with option on a single contract of SPY out of boredom on my day off and I went from up 40% to down 20% after lunch from that move. Was going for free lunch for the family and had it if I sold. I was able to sell out at 5% loss about a half hour ago.
crushednjmillenial,
Yes, 281 price reductions on listings ranging from West Milford to Howell. That’s a sizeable area. I never said it was zero. :) By “Very Little,” I should have stressed that my search was in targeted areas, primarily unicorn, rainbow and utopia areas which reveals few dots on the screen.
They also fly decoy helicopters too…
Guess they are worried that some rogue guy from NJ has kept his pea shooter from 1970.
Haha. I still remember buying one of those straws and the peas that went with them at the local soda fountain.
Don’t see those for sale anymore. They must have been outlawed as a dangerous weapon.
Haven’t checked, but I would bet NJ has a law requiring a child to get a permit from the FAA to fly a rubber band powered Guillows balsa airplane.
No license required if the propeller winds less than 50 rotations.
Juice,
This is how you fix it:
https://youtu.be/POCR55UNF-Y?t=164
I thought for sure that Phil was auditioning to run for pres and replace corrupt old Joe but perhaps it’s to replace Kamala, who is a poster child for woke idiocy. He’s cooking something up. I think appeal his will be very limited.
I thought for sure that Phil was auditioning to run for pres and replace corrupt old Joe but perhaps it’s to replace Kamala
Never happen.
jj Lives (No One Edition):
https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-high-school-golf-team-cancels-practice-encountering-adult-entertainment-clubs-tournament
Yep. Lib: the TIPS are highly correlated to moves in standard Treasuries.
1987 Condo says:
October 6, 2022 at 9:48 am
Lib, I-bonds are pegged to the inflation rate, not Treasuries.
ex: this amateur mixer created a track out of a 45 second snippet in under 24 hours…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9-ILjeDW4o
Chi, interesting share on your client yesterday, TY.
Regarding vol I only go short…with no spot security everything is based off futures…meaning you can be directionally correct and still have a poor or losing trade. The same phenomenon works for shorting it as well, the difference being the spikes up are severe and brief, while once she settles down she does for a while…took me one trade a decade ago where I was long 60 days out, had the index absolutely spike, and I saw maybe 10% or so of the spot move…there are much more efficient ways to short the market. Few things sting me more than being correct on the view and having the wrong trade fuck up good analysis….
VIX has some unique nuances, she’s an interesting animal. I am both intrigued by and attracted to her complexities. If she were human she would be like one of those uber-liberal chicks dressed in baggy, unflattering clothing intentionally wearing glasses that make her look even less attractive but when naked is smoking hot and an absolute carnivore in bed.
“Recent turmoil in British bond and currency markets is one. That disturbance has exposed potential risks lurking in pensions and government bond markets…”
Like borrowing 4x against a bond portfolio to reinvest in other more volatile assets?
JFC….where do they find these people…..
That reminds me of a date I had about 30 years ago. Midway through I was thinking “WTF am I doing?”….. as I was grabbing the check, she grabs my wrist and says “hey…. let’s screw”……. lol
leftwing says:
October 6, 2022 at 11:53 am
If she were human she would be like one of those uber-liberal chicks dressed in baggy, unflattering clothing intentionally wearing glasses that make her look even less attractive but when naked is smoking hot and an absolute carnivore in bed.
He’s trying to raise his profile. For what, cabinet, diplomat, he’s after something. I thought for sure that Joe would be cashiered out but he’s claiming to run again. Long way away.
If she were human she would be like one of those uber-liberal chicks dressed in baggy, unflattering clothing intentionally wearing glasses that make her look even less attractive but when naked is smoking hot and an absolute carnivore in bed.
Yeah, except then she walks out, leaving you handcuffed to the headboard, naked in a hotel room.
And that’s how I met your mother.
Biden will run again, because Harris won’t be elected, Harris will stay as VP. Biden will step down some time after re-election, and then clueless arrogant Harris will be President.
If the lunatic Trump rinds again, Biden will win, in spite of him being a disaster as well.
“Wage pressure for the US service sector is relentless.”
Agency that handles special ed afterschool for my son just cancelled services because therapist(s) quit. They said impossible to hire. Firms people nothing will get you nothing. Forcing people to resign to get living wage..well companies deserve it. Unfortunately we all pay the price. I am sure health insurers won’t give these agencies higher reimbursement to off-set rise in labor costs. Phoenix is right that capitalism has f-ed this country. Always trying to f another person for your own personal gain does not work in keeping capitalist society stable. You give people 4% raises when inflation 10%..we can all expect the worst now. Falling through the cracks will become falling through craters for lots of people. I am fortunate as son is high functioning and sympathize with poorer families with heavy special ed needs. They are getting the worst of it.
If we get trump vs Biden or HRC in 2024 I’m voting for Sammy Hagar. He has more energy than then 3 of them put together and can speak coherently.
https://www.nj.com/news/2022/10/nj-could-divest-its-92b-pension-fund-from-fossil-fuels-what-it-means-financially-and-for-climate-change.html
Good strategy. Ban the only investment making money for you.
Did that inflation reduction thing kick in yet?
I’m sure for the baby boomers and old retired farts on SS that it kicked in. That was most of the target.
3b says:
October 6, 2022 at 12:53 pm
“If the lunatic Trump rinds again, Biden will win…”
I disagree, but that’s just a matter of opinion. What I think is less up for debate, is that if the Dems are again successful in foisting large scale vote-by-mail upon us, SlowJoe will win again. In fact, if they successfully institutionalize vote-by-mail, they’ll win national elections ad infinitum because they’ll always be able to harvest ‘enough’ ballots in Detroit, Philly, Atlanta, etc…
Also, as Eddie hints at, you’ll almost never see a Dem incumbent run on his/her record.
Right, ballot harvesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbFc9T7KXA0
Biden said Thursday that Putin was ‘not joking’ about using nukes in Ukraine
And he warned the world faced ‘Armageddon’ for the first time in decades.
A tactical nuke in Ukraine is not Armageddon.
Americas response to it will be.
Left
Saw this on Portnoy and shorting and thought of you. This will be my goto video when I need a laugh. “Don’t text me at opening!”
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1577236794860371970
But he does do a good Pizza review.
One for you Gary and the rest of the Charter School and Voucher Champions.
I’m doing research on school vouchers, so I called a catholic school in my district and asked if I could enroll a 2nd grader with non-verbal autism that requires 1:1 care at school. I got a flat no with no attempt to accommodate.
School vouchers WILL segregate schools.
https://twitter.com/DebCares4Iowa/status/1578072856516300803