From NJBIZ:
Industrial real estate sector closes Q3 with strong fundamentals
Rounding the corner on 2022, the industrial real estate sector closed the third quarter with strong fundamentals. The vacancy rate is under 3% while rents continue to grow as demand refuses to abate, despite potentially brewing economic headwinds. In the region, that differs slightly from the national picture where Cushman & Wakefield reported industrial supply outpaced demand for the first time in eight quarters.
But that isn’t the case in New Jersey.
Here, net absorption and demand are still neck and neck. Despite construction, fierce demand keeps preleasing strong with about 90% of under-development product spoken for. “As of yet, we have not seen the uncertainty in the national economy directly impact the imbalanced supply and demand curve found in our region,” said James Delmonte, vice president and director of research at NAI James E. Hanson.
“It’s the diversity of demand that is so key,” JLL Vice Chairman and Head of the Northeast Industrial Region Robert Kossar told NJBIZ just ahead of the close of Q3. “Industrial isn’t just e-commerce these days. Everyone’s trying to right-size their supply chain. Everybody’s trying to get closer to the customer, which goes super well for New Jersey.” On top of that, Kossar added that compared with most states, New Jersey has a “good labor story,” as well, which is becoming increasingly important to occupiers.
“[I]t doesn’t matter if you’re a brick-and-mortar store of a manufacturer, or any kind of wholesaler — it doesn’t matter what you do right now. You’re trying to expand your inventory because you don’t want to get caught without products and you’re wanting those products to be closer to the customer,” he said. “[W]hether they’re an appliance manufacturer and wholesaler or a retailer with physical brick-and-mortar stores and e-commerce, or a medical device manufacturer that needs to distribute locally. I mean, they’re all active right now.”
Construction is also on the upswing. According to JLL’s Q3 Industrial Insight, building is at “its highest level in history,” with approximately 27.2 million square feet under development – double that of 15 months ago – and 17.7 million square feet having broken ground in the Garden State year to date. According to NAI Hanson’s 3Q 2022 Industrial Report, 16.5 million square feet of new construction is expected to be delivered over the next five quarters across North and Central Jersey.
Foist!
FYI bond market closed
Keep it that way… less potential to fuck up stocks lol
As for residential construction, every piece of dirt that is leveled and construction that follows appears to be apartments/condos. And it’s not just some urban redo, they’re plowing tracks of land between houses that previously had a park-like barrier and sticking some multi-monstrosity in between. What drew me to the area where I currently live is/was the space, aesthetics and peacefulness. Since I was a kid and had relatives in various towns in the area, I always wanted to live here while growing up in the city. I thought I’d at least stay in my current abode until retirement. I’m not so sure anymore. It’s been over seven years that I’m here already… it seems like only yesterday when I had to delouse myself after visiting open houses and showings.
“Subprime is contained” just won a Nobel prize in economics.
He also said this too ““We do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime [housing] market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system.”
He certainly did have the power at the time and did test his hypothesis, that banks must be bailed out at all costs and bail them out he did. I gather time erases the real story that he bailed out the non-banks too…..What was AIG? How did a boring, ultra-safe insurance company become one of the largest bailouts in the 2008 financial crisis? Back then it was what $182 billion? A non-bank….for sure, that was not in his paper he won the Nobel for. His hypothesis is infact wrong..it wasn’t the banks that needed to be bailed out. It was the casino.
SoDoSoPa
they’re plowing tracks of land between houses that previously had a park-like barrier and sticking some multi-monstrosity in between.
re: SoDoSoPa
Is Hipsterism dead?
Juice,
Thanks for the link on that coax conversion device but my router is still the same distance from my office so, running an ethernet cable or coax cable doesn’t matter. Unless, did I miss something?
Wholesale distributors in my industry (plumbing, heating, waterworks, etc.) are pulling back on inventory. Steel, copper and plastic commodity type items prices are all also falling.
Last month was the first time in 11 years with my current company that I haven’t had a monthly increase in sales vs prior year. It was pretty much company wide (Maine to Virginia). Typically September and October are our biggest months. Last month was down and this month is off to a rough start vs last years numbers.
Speaking of Banks and bonds on Friday Credit Swiss made a cash offer to buy back $3 Billion in debt securities, and they now need to sell a hotel to book a profit this quarter.
Why does a bank run a hotel anyway?
No ‘Lehman moment’ they say in the news ofcourse.
“Although rising credit risk among European banks may bring back memories of the 2008 global financial crisis, analysts have stressed that capital buffers are now significantly higher.”
Hughesrep says:
October 10, 2022 at 9:32 am
Why is your business slowing; replacement revenue or new construction?
Unless, did I miss something?
You said you had an old cable outlet in your office. I take it that means a cable was already run so that could have been used in place of the Cat cable.
Ed you said you had a cable wire already. This is a simpler solution than pulling Cat 6 cable especially if you whole house was wired with cable in every room. If you feel you need wired networking performance over wifi anyway. You can also run wifi repeaters over a cable wire, a provider like FIOS sells them or you can buy one online yourself. I have a mix of cable and Cat 6 cable with FIOS. There are a few rooms where the signal was weak so I put in two wifi repeaters that run over the a cable wire. You can also plug in Cat 6 cable to the wifi repeater as well.
I rarely use a Cat 6 cable anymore. Usually to wifi performance with 802.11ax has great performance as it now divides a single wifi channels into 64 different subcarrier frequencies all of which are used to transmit data to a single client. I regularly see over 300 Mbps performance over wifi, more than enough for really anything….
Jeff Beck tonight at the Basie, rumor is Jonny Depp might be playing too.
Depp is playing tomorrow night it seems.
https://tickets-center.com/search/count-basie-center-for-the-arts-tickets/?venueId=412&venueName=Count+Basie+Center+for+the+Arts&tagid=201&atid=30001&customExportId=20191120-100005&nid=1&accid=9493575329&campaignid=284178002&cid=398191325238&akwd=count%20basie&mt=e&network=g&dist=s&adposition=&device=c&ismobile=false&devicemodel=&placement=&target=&random=11879447113545752919&loc_physical_ms=9003689&loc_interest_ms=9003659&exid=&fiid=&vx=0&gclid=Cj0KCQjwhY-aBhCUARIsALNIC06I1_VatMkPBS84sRiKxReVTfZzVwzMAVNihCfpUeTTHkzE4LsCWLkaAjqnEALw_wcB
“…“Subprime is contained” just won a Nobel prize in economics…”
With Krugman (why does he even exist) and Obama (participation trophy) and now this award the ‘soft’ Nobel prizes are garbage. Shame to see once reputable organizations like NYT, Nobel go into the shitter. Can’t speak for the hard sciences.
I’ll have to google it but I seem to recall one of the wealthy US industrialists set a foundation that expired in a generation…the money had to be spent down. His rationale was that over time the boards become ‘institutionalized’ and can wander far from the original benefactor’s intents.
Still early, but VIX telling me people are nervous for the end of the week….
May take a ST lotto spread in the event the market shits the bed on Pepsi through JPM…
Phoenix/Juice,
Ah, okay. I do have a coaxial cable here in the office that was with a previous provider. I now have a different provider for the last few years. When I look in the basement, I’m trying to figure out where that cable is hooked into (active and inactive splitters) and whether I can just tie it into the active splitter. It’s a bit confusing but you guys gave me an idea and that conversion box might work. As it is now, I have the ethernet cable hardwired and working. I had to replace it about eight months ago because for some reason, the ethernet cable just died. I don’t know if a mouse nibbled on it or what, but the connection was simply dead. So, a friend and I snaked the new ethernet from the router/hub location in the family room, down through the floor, along the basement ceiling and up into the office.
ARK Invest, Letter to Fed
By: Catherine Wood
In ARK’s latest In The Know video, out of concern that the Fed is making a policy error that will cause deflation, we offered some data for our “data-driven” Fed to consider as it prepares for its next decision on November 2. In the face of conflicting data, the unanimity of the Fed’s last decision to increase the Fed funds rate by 75 basis points was surprising.
In this summary, we delineate first the upstream price deflation that is likely to turn into downstream deflation. Then, we focus on the two variables––employment and headline inflation––upon which the Fed seems to be making its decisions. In our view, both are lagging indicators.
Commodity prices are leading indicators, upstream in the stages of processing. Most commodity prices have peaked and, except for food and energy, are falling on a year-over-year basis, as shown below. Without question, food and energy prices are important, but we do not believe that the Fed should be fighting and exacerbating the global pain associated with a supply shock to agriculture and energy commodities caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
lol, dear Jerome, please stop raising rates, my investments don’t work without the money hose.
Ed if you have mice nibbling on plastic cables running in your basement you have a bigger problem than just ethernet. Perhaps some glue traps? Make sure to use a good shovel to finish em off once the panic squeaking becomes loud.
Some economists saying 7 percent mortgages are the new normal, possibly 8 percent. The party rates of 3 percent are over, now the hangover.
Fast: Bergen Co long ago ceased being the quiet tree lined quintessential suburb. South Bergen is as urban and packed as any of the NYC boroughs. It just took time to get to your area of BC. As for all the apartments, look at the locations where they are being built,what else is going to go there? Any busy spot developers will stuff apartments on them.
Ed if you have mice nibbling on plastic cables running in your basement you have a bigger problem than just ethernet.
Lol. I don’t have a mice problem, no evidence of it anywhere, was just speculating why or how the cable was dead. Nothing else died or shorted out. It could be just the connector(s) failed. Anyway, the issue is not an issue at the moment but you opened the door for me with the coax/ethernet converter possibility.
We were at the Brownstone in Paterson for a wedding this weekend. I had forgotten how truly sad and depressing that city is. There are multiple blocks that don’t even have street lights.
3b – Lots and lots of now unproductive debt now with higher rates and inflation. Just think about the US Government debt, we now spend nearly 447 Billion on debt service alone out of the US annual budget every year. The Defense budget for this year is 773 Billion. As rates rise the annual cost of the debt service will continue to rise as well perhaps even surpassing what we spend on the defense budget every year.
An ever increasing debt load and higher interest payments could lead to a loss in confidence and nobody will want to buy our debt further exacerbating the problem.
32 SP500 companies at 52-week lows right now. Among them,
AMAT
CCL
NVDA
MSFT
SHW
MCO
PG
Oil going north of $100/barrel. The strategic reserve is at a 40 year low. Trump bought massive amounts of oil at $20/barrel to stock the reserve. O’Biden will need to restock at over $100/barrel. He compounded the problem threefold being controlled by those who answer to no one at the expense of your exponentially increasing tax dollars fueled by exponential inflation and higher rates. For every one move the left makes, it results in numerous failures.
“Last month was the first time in 11 years with my current company that I haven’t had a monthly increase in sales vs prior year. It was pretty much company wide (Maine to Virginia). Typically September and October are our biggest months. Last month was down and this month is off to a rough start vs last years numbers.”
Hughes,
Our government has spent 4 trillion dollars on the Pandemic. Over 3 trillion went to grants, subsidies, and contributions which included the stimulus, PPP, unemployment boosts, etc. Call it cash that went into people’s pockets.
So between the lockdowns and work from home, absolutely tons of money were saved. The vast majority of financial hardship occurred almost entirely in the lower class. The lower class, as we all know, has the least amount of discretionary dollars. Yet we gave out 3 trillion dollars in aid to nearly everyone. If you were in the top 7% income, you might not have qualified for stimulus payments, but many took advantage of the PPP payments which everyone knew would not need paying back. It is estimated that only 25% of the PPP payments went to people at risk of losing their job. The other 75% went to businesses that had access to the stock market, banks, etc. Of all of the PPP loans, close to 75% has been forgiven. The point I am trying to make is that the lockdowns were not nearly as detrimental to workers (except at the lowest income levels) as the government anticipated. Not only were most people not financially impacted by Covid, but most actually benefitted. And yet our government spent 4 trillion dollars. So this created massive savings as the lockdown made discretionary spending almost impossible. Outside of boat sales, spending went down everywhere. At the same time, pent-up demand was building as businesses reduced inventory to match up with the drop in customer spending.
Then the lockdowns ended and spending not only returned to where it was before, but increased. In many sectors (housing, autos, anything with semi-conductors) the lack of supply caused significant price increases as the pent up demand did its damage. These price increases then filtered through the rest of commerce as it became clear that people could afford it with all of this newfound income and savings thanks to the unnecessary stimulus, PPP and unemployment insurance. Well this cycle caused the economy to overheat which has lead to the runaway inflation we are currently experiencing. It’s so strong that the 3% increase in the FFR has done almost nothing to slow the economy down.
So what is going to happen next? The FED will continue on it’s projected course to continue raising interest rates until they overdue it. Playing Nostradamus again, I fully expect the FED to raise another .75 in November, when realistically, we are probably where we need to be right now since the pent-up demand has clearly died. It’s just beginning to show up, but the economy is always to slow to react. Also exacerbating things is the fact that inventories have been ramped up more than necessary based on the massive increase in spending post-Pandemic. So there is a wall of likely headwinds coming (call it a Stunami) this Fall/Winter that is going to spin us into a pretty serious and necessary recession (and we’ll finally see the job losses).
1) Pent up demand spending drying up (check out the used car repo numbers)
2) Housing demand clearly drying up (Fortune – Wall Street: U.S. housing market to see the second-biggest home price decline since the Great Depression)
3) Fed overshooting on FFR
4) This upcoming Winters energy shortage (or our overconsumption of it) leading to significantly higher energy bills
5)Russia/Ukraine anyone?
From Deloitte:
“Sticky inflation brings on more aggressive Fed tightening. Global energy and food problems add to the environment of uncertainty. The residential real estate market weakens, and businesses cut back on investment because of the uncertain environment. The faltering economy does allow supply chain issues to dissipate, eventually reducing inflation, but that’s not a lot of comfort to unemployed workers and unprofitable businesses.”
The softer labor market is coming. Let’s all hope that it’s not too severe.
And Happy Columbus Day. Though he ruined things for lots of Native Americans, he is still responsible for all of us being here today. Of course, how we all got here might differ just a bit.
BRT,
We all know that deflation follows inflation. How bold and brilliant of her to point out that it will be warmer next Summer than it was this Winter. It’s quite obvious that she is simply preparing to blame her continued embarrassingly abhorrent performance on the FED.
Though, I actually think she is right (for once), in stating that the data is lagging and that the FED may be overdoing it.
“O’Biden will need to restock [the SPR] at over $100/barrel.”
Actually he won’t need to…the other benefit he got from the four years prior to his Admin was a dropoff in the amount of oil we imported…minimum levels of the SPR are mandated as a function of our imports…less imports and the formula shows the SPR ‘adequately’ stocked despite the massive drawdowns…he’s just acting like the liberal politician he is, living high off others…all that is missing is him marrying a dead conservative’s widow and jetting all over the place on her inheritance for left wing causes….
“It is estimated that only 25% of the PPP payments went to people at risk of losing their job. The other 75% went to businesses that had access to the stock market, banks, etc.”
Two incongruous statements…nothing requires a business to keep unnecessary employees by diluting shareholders or levering themselves, in fact it would be incredibly stupid to do so. Those employees would be laid off absent PPP.
The real question is did 100% of the PPP funds flow through to employees, which was the intent of the program. If not, that’s a legal issue, not economic one.
Lib; The Fed has to overshot, because they waited too long to tighten, and as insurance that they have best inflation. Additionally, it’s a way to bitch slap people into understanding that we were in a bubble courtesy of the Fed of course, but hey they realize that now.
I’ve got a Unifi system for whole house/yard wifi.
The only ethernet cable I have right now are the backhauls between access points.
I might consider adding some additional ethernet, but only so I can have POE cameras.
Most of my devices work well transitioning from AP to AP if I move about the house (as I do when I’m working). If I’m on a Teams call on my phone, I’m pretty good outside, even about a block or so away. I considered adding another AP on the roof, because why not.
Fed is always gonna make mistakes. It’s in their nature. But, we are all supposed to invest around how the fed operates, now how the fed should operate. I mean, if you control 100 billion dollars worth of investor funds, you might wanna take a few minutes to think about that one. It just goes to show you how clueless she is.
Sounds like they have progressed beyond SoDoSoPa, and now are building The Villas at Kenny’s House.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_Sda58Ftzg
BRT,
I think Cathie is using the Fed as an excuse for clients. Otherwise she might have to admit that her team is totally incompetent in fundamental security analysis and valuation, which would be more embarrassing than “the Fed made us lose money”
Left,
Yeah, I should have been more clear. But you know what I am getting at. It is very sad that as a society, morals and ethics in America have hit rock bottom. When I was a kid, we rode our bikes everywhere. Never carried a lock, never heard of a single bike being stolen. Some of them were top-of-the line too. All my friends had Mongooses or Diamondbacks. Today, if it’s not locked, it’s as good as gone. Even locked, there is still a good chance it gets stolen. What was the exception has become the norm. So I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that you find little wrong with businesses taking government money when it wasn’t necessary. Moral hazard, what’s that? We are all paying dearly for it now. And I 100% knew this was going to happen back in 2020 when they first announced it. Gator and my brother-in-law thought I was crazy, as my brother-in-law cashed his stimulus check. I told him it would cost him ten-fold. All of this aid with no proof of hardship. Sheesh.
On Trump and the SPR. It’s all pure narrative. First Trump taps it. Then he says he’s going to fill it to the top and then doesn’t. Biden taps it, and it’s the worst thing that has ever happened since Eve ate that Apple. There really is no story there. I am surprised you found one.
Speaking of narratives. Did you see Prof G’s chart of the week. For years I’ve been lamenting the IRS’ inability to audit the rich. Especially knowing that research on average has revealed that the rich pay at best, under 70% of what they owe. Of course, the IRS budget has been stripped to the bone over the past few decades, so again, moral hazard. What’s that? Yet the populist narrative is that funding the IRS is a bad thing, even when it is projected (and yes, I know these projections can often be wrong (See Trump’s Tax Act)) to actually pay for itself from audits on the wealthy.
At the end of the day, if people won’t police themselves, then sadly, it’s going to cost money to police them.
Pipes
Both sides. Vast majority of new business out there are multi families that were in process already.
Cheap / free money dragged a lot of demand forward (as Lib said in a lot more words).
“I mean, if you control 100 billion dollars worth of investor funds, you might wanna take a few minutes to think…”
“I think Cathie is using the Fed as an excuse for clients. Otherwise she might have to admit that her team is totally incompetent in fundamental security analysis and valuation…”
ARKK is HTB, didn’t check the rate, assume it’s reasonable given liquidity…she’s drilling toward 33 which was the absolute low in COVID. She breaches that you go back to Sept 2017…
Dead money, zero return for more than five years for the sector of the market that ought to command the highest returns…disgraceful.
LOL, CW…
https://imgur.com/a/9bnGprO
Lib – I don’t know where you grew up but nearly every bicycle in my town was stolen growing up. The local bike shop too was involved selling used parts etc too from all those fancy diamond back and mongoose bicycles. This was from 6th grade up etc, we locked bicycles after riding to school and would find the lock cut as the racks were near trees and the school did not care.
My son rides his bicycle to school now when he feels like it. There are no thefts I have heard of, same with going to downtown as well.
“So I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that you find little wrong with businesses taking government money when it wasn’t necessary.”
Generally agree with your reply except I did not say that…nor did I take any PPP for my business or a dime personally of anything else offered…the letters from NJ informing me of my ‘tax credit’ or whatever it was are in some landfill…
Re: SPR not making ‘a story’…just been trading /CL for a while now and it was brought to my attention to not expect the US government to be a marginal buyer…not politics, just basic math…the ‘hold’ requirement is less now than in the past.
Laid on a ST (Wed 10/19) SPY hedge….still long, but have two hedges now, one expiring 11/11 (in case the elections are screwy) and looking at reporting companies schedules by next Wed market will have its first real read on earnings given the companies reporting from this Wed through next.
Added to my VIX shorts (effectively long SPY)
BRT- re” Fed is always gonna make mistakes”
A little addition to your Fed comment.
Fed is always going to paper over their make mistakes. They started QT now, making borrowing costs for mortgages and the government bonds nearly the highest in 2 decades.
It’s going to end badly for borrowers and well taxpayers too. I cannot wait until the CBO comes out with their latest study on rising borrowing costs for the government, wait for the reaction from the press and congress when the annual debt service projection is more than our massive defense budget. The claim it is some kind of victory over defense spending.
They are also looking to increase tax collections. How much you might ask? Oh how about another trillion in annual taxes collected annually, well why so much well we go from a 6 trillion dollar a year spending spree to 8 trillion dollars a year by 2026….
Lib – I don’t know where you grew up but nearly every bicycle in my town was stolen growing up. The local bike shop too was involved selling used parts etc too from all those fancy diamond back and mongoose bicycles. This was from 6th grade up etc, we locked bicycles after riding to school and would find the lock cut as the racks were near trees and the school did not care.
My son rides his bicycle to school now when he feels like it. There are no thefts I have heard of, same with going to downtown as well.
It was the same in Bergenfield. You left your bike unlocked, it was gone in 2 minutes. I was dumb and saved up for the Dyno GT Performer. Cool bike, and it had the gyro to spin the handlebars. Older kids would openly tell me they are going to steal my bike. It was a weird environment. A lot of it had to be young adults doing the stealing in town though. Word on the street was, Steve’s Moped in Dumont was the chop house. My friends brother was one of the notorious bike thieves in town.
A few years later, I remember, being 14, my friend asked me if I wanted to go in the city with him. I said sure. His brother drove us, and he was only 16. Car was parked out by the train tracks. I was too stupid to realize he boosted it. I guess he graduated from bikes to cars. So he drives us into NYC in a stolen car and back.
Wrong thread…………….
chicagofinance says:
October 10, 2022 at 1:14 pm
You doing top down or bottom up. I would go P/E by sector if you go bottom up. Each has their own idiosyncrasies. E for AAPL is far more influential and prone to a higher P/E than XOM.
I understand your question relates to the E discussion. By definition, we are discussing a shortcut calculation/rule-of-thumb. So should the rule have any validity, it is giving a quick and dirty of a full blown DCF for each and every component of the SPX. As such, in producing the DCF, where is your E? It is the forward E’s…..
I understand the implicit nuance you are asking….. because when you consider the equation for terminal value, the numerator input is current cash flow.
Your concern is whether you are making a gross calculation error. The answer is off-course the market doesn’t give a shit…… it goes to the correct level no matter what your little spread sheet says……
leftwing says:
October 8, 2022 at 1:10 pm
Serious question for you two guys, chi, noone….
I keep hearing reiterated everywhere that ‘2023 earnings need to come in 20% to around 200’…unless I can’t read basic data that math is just not correct, the 20% referenced decline is off of forecasts, not off of 2022, which is where 20-down in a recession comes from, off prior year actual, not forward forecast….
The trajectory of earnings relative to the expectations concerns me deeply…the data says LTM earnings for SPX are 218 on an LTM basis, 20% off of there is +/- 180…that 180 puts us higher than the wide open, free money years of 2018 (162) and 2019 (163)…once you stack 2022 on top of these two years (ignoring the huge distortions of 20/21) that 180 looks not unreasonable for even a no-recession scenario….if people are running ‘downsides’ using 200 that ‘downside’ would be 25% up from those stacked years, pretty good when looking at the LT earnings series of SPX 200 is supposed to be analysts downside not yet priced in…also 200 for 2022 would imply 10% down for each of Q3 and Q4 2022, ruh-roh….if 3Q and 4Q 2022 do not decline and current forecasts hold SPX 2022 comes in at 223….that implies the recession is pushed to 2023 in which case the not-yet-priced-in-earnings of 200 in 2023 is only a 10% from 2022A? Not passing the reasonableness test here….
And, notably in the background of all the analysis is that in 2019 (a wide open free money year) earnings were rolling already, being flat essentially from the prior year.
I’m getting more and more concerned about earnings and guidance relative to expectations. Six days to figure it out before the starting gun goes off…
chicagofinance says:
October 10, 2022 at 1:21 pm
Yikes….. fucked it up…. it is forward cash….. so there…. no conflict now…. agreed?
chicagofinance says:
October 10, 2022 at 1:14 pm
I understand the implicit nuance you are asking….. because when you consider the equation for terminal value, the numerator input is current cash flow.
You are simply referring to the boom and bust cycle. Stop blaming the Fed. There were no bubbles before the Fed was created? It’s the nature of the system to boom and bust….the Fed has helped make this consistent cycle more livable for the avg individual whether you realize it or not. We could have had some massive busts if not for the Fed…busts where people literally lose it all and are starving in the street en mass.
3b says:
October 10, 2022 at 12:22 pm
Lib; The Fed has to overshot, because they waited too long to tighten, and as insurance that they have best inflation. Additionally, it’s a way to bitch slap people into understanding that we were in a bubble courtesy of the Fed of course, but hey they realize that now.
Is the Fed perfect? No.
They do serve a purpose. They make the busts much more friendly by providing liquidity.
Thanks for the thoughts chi…got my answer by the ‘market’ this morning..all over CNBC that 180 for earnings “may be on the table” and 200 ‘likely’….
JFC…sorry for such a convoluted post the other day…bottom line was everyone seemed to be taking 2023 forecasts and discounting them 20% down for a recession, not acknowledging that the ’20-down’ yardstick is off of prior year actual….They were actually forecasting a recession and having YoY earnings go UP…
Felt like I went down the rabbit hole…
I am more concerned now than any time recently…the June cuts haven’t yet fully worked through the economy, forget July and another 75 in Nov…we see the impact on liquid markets, eg mortgages through the roof, housing at a standstill…those hikes eventually trickle through the entire economy…these fuckers seriously are going to throw us hard into recession, intentionally….
Guess I shouldn’t be surprised though, it’s the same bunch earlier in the decade who were trying to raise rates solely for the purpose of then ‘having some room to cut’…SMH…
No matter. Powell will get the Nobel in 2035…
In other news nearly flat for the day after being down nearly 1.5%…those VIX shorts added in earlier helped…closed out my problem child, killing me because it will work out but just too much risk as we approach expiry and with all the new SPY/VIX positions I’m exposed long anyway, in superior situations. Fucker unnecessarily cost me 2% on the entire portfolio. Play stupid games, win dumb prizes….
“No matter. Powell will get the Nobel in 2035…”
Because in 2025, they will be calling him to the guillotine. In 2035, they will realize how what he did might have saved FIAT.
Lib, some names for you, know you’ll puke the first. Not for now, LMK what you think longer term.
GNRC, VNT, CENT…
BRT – Yup it was Steve’s Moped and lol they are still around since 1978..
http://www.stevesmoped.com/
Lol I know a kid who was busted for stealing and parting out the bikes, it was all washed under the rug too, he later joined the army and when home on a break got drunk and get this crashed into a tree on a bicycle! Broke he jaw and I think the army washed him out after that.
On the bike thang. I grew up in East Brunswick. Where did you guys grow up? Bergen County?
Yes Bergen…BRT and I are brothers from another mother, we used to ride the same mean streets on our BMX bikes. I could not afford a mongoose so we got cheap frames, painted them cool metallic colors and tricked them out with alloy parts and Skyway Tuff rims etc. There were wooded trails we turned into BMX jumps back by the swim club. I will save that story the one where I jumped over five kids laying on the ground for another day.
Mongoose Motomags baby.
Nothing like jumping burning pallets behind the tracks.
Regarding Baseball,
Lol at the Muts flaming out in their wild card series, even with their massive insider-trading-funded payroll.
I heard from a source close to DeGrom that he really doesn’t like being in NYC and that’s one reason he wants to opt out of his Mets contract. I’m surprised teams would be willing to pay so much for a guy who is so frequently injured, but on the other hand, if he’s healthy he’s most teams’ #1 starter, which is hard to find.
Left: Regarding the Fed, and I ask in all seriousness, since they waited too long to to tighten, and kept rates too low for a decade, what other alternative is there now then aggressive tightening?
The Fed must destroy this economy bc dopes like this exist. Bought last year for 505k and trying to sell now got 700k. Not one dime put into this dump. PT Barnum seems to be running the price estimation in housing, food and manual labor market. I call this house the very crappy Caterpillar. Shameful that Trump printed us all into oblivion in 2020.
https://ibb.co/R3TTyFx
To bystander’s point:
My BIL finally evicted his non paying tenant. Old brick home in Fairview. He gutted the bathroom, installed some new backsplash, rains shower head (over tub of course), LED lights in the hallway, new paint, raised the rent by 37% to $3,000. In Fariview, for a subway style 3/1. I told him good luck.
Price controls are awful, but couples who watch too much HGTV and raise rents 36% are a close second.
Boomer: That’s insane, and in Fairview??
“Left: Regarding the Fed, and I ask in all seriousness, since they waited too long to to tighten, and kept rates too low for a decade, what other alternative is there now then aggressive tightening?”
No disagreement on the prognosis. Serious questions on the qualifications of the chief surgeon…
Listen, if the endpoint is to punch the market in the nose and blow everything out then as everyone said – including here, including you – go 100/100 or even higher and before even the first raise make the JH speech.
Don’t signal an engine off, glide path into the airport and then throw the throttle hard on approach…
The cognitive dissonance is deafening.
Really, don’t we learn this from our mothers at a young age? Say what you are going to do and then do what you say?
I mentioned the other day how Gundlach calls him Mr Magoo…driving around blindly bumping into things….if your intent is to get to the shore as quickly as possible hop on the GSP and be the asshole driver Lib always complains about…this fucking guy tells everyone “we’re good, we’ll get there in due time”, then hops on 1 and 9 and Mr Magoos a bunch of cyclists by driving on the right shoulder at 60 mph….
Like seriously, WTF.
I am agnostic on the goal. I am not on the process once the goal is identified.
No problem with the option of slamming on the brakes. Then just fucking do it.
More broadly, and saying this with a nearly full grey beard as I type, these fucking old men who have aged into compromise and non-offensiveness have to go….Powell, Roberts….fucking all of them think they are master diplomats and Solomon like vessels of wisdom and experience always trying to split the baby so as not to offend…
Man up, take a fucking stance, and execute….
Seriously, this is why I respect a Bernie or even AOC more than a McCain…I disagree vociferously with the former but at least I know with clarity and specificity what they are going to do and how…these other fucking intellectual equivalents of your clueless 75 year old uncle that your family feels compelled to invite to Thanksgiving because he has no where else to go and who exist solely not to offend have got to exit the world decision making stage already…
/rant off
Separately, way way too much movement in the bond markets lately…spider sense says there’s some serious shit in the background…
On those stocks you want an evaluation on Lefty, give me your best guess as to the high and low P/E for the next 5 years for each. With that info, I can give you an excellent guess of their fair value based on a whole crap load of things.
Also, two tells I don’t like…AMZN throwing on a second and early Prime Day right before earnings announcement….and Jamie Dimon, who has been Mr. Don’t-Worry-It’s-Cool, coming out today and saying another 20% down can easily be in the cards…four days before he announces earnings…
Buckle up buttercups…
Haha Lib, I can do maths…looking for your opinion, not calculator…..
Heck, I’ll send you the PDFs.
My opinions are based on my calculations. Just like yours are. I’ll get the ValueLine data, but would prefer it would come from you.
Left; I agree with most of your analysis. In short I have been saying for years the Fed kept rates too low to long. And when they finally realized they screwed up, they should have hit hard when they finally realized they screwed up , but of course they did not.
Where I disagree with is the all or none, I just don’t think it works in the real world.
Fix It Again Tony
Libturd says:
October 10, 2022 at 3:21 pm
“No matter. Powell will get the Nobel in 2035…”
Because in 2025, they will be calling him to the guillotine. In 2035, they will realize how what he did might have saved FIAT.
3BR apts in NYC metro (ex – the newarks and patersons) = minimum $2,400/ month rent right now. So, some upgrades, absolutely should be in the direction of $3k.
Meanwhile, absentee landlords are still charging $3k or so for full suburban houses in some blue ribbon towns (which, of course, don’t have rent control). Should be getting $4k+. Rare that I look at a house for sale wherein the landlord is charging market rent.
Generac is the best option of the three, but not yet. Debt is to high and there is still room to drop. It’s a green play, and they have been weathering the storm from an earning standpoint quite well. But they will drop with the housing bust. Catch them at or near their bottom and you have a great long-term growth play. Especially when people are using generators to power their cars.
Cent is ultra cheap now, but not as smart of a long-term play. They own a lot of pet and landscape related products. Me thinks fertilizer will be banned soon.
Vont, I know little about. Don’t like how many of their products are gasoline-related. This won’t bide well.
Again, shoot me P/Es and I can definitely get you some better numbers. Otherwise, we are mostly guessing/
3b we never disagreed over what they should do but over what they would do.
It’s just mind boggling that as they are hiking they are as recently as what four months ago buying in mortgage securities…
It’s like proposing to some chick on memorial day and then fucking anything that moves at the Parker House all summer long….
Like what the hell, figure it out it’s not that hard
Juice, please tell me it wasn’t Carl P.
Juice, holy crap, I remember the wooden ramps by the swim club. You got there through Vivyen St. or Harrington at the top of the hill. There was some huge satellite dish there.
oh, it was also funny. My grandfather put washers on my Pegs on the front and back wheels and tightened them so tight so the kids couldn’t unscrew them by hand when you parked you bike on the street.
Being 100% wrong on every indicator leading into the GFC apparently gets you the nobel prize. This is why Economics is the dismal science.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INmqvibv4UU