From Mortgage News Daily:
Another Day, Another 20 Year High in Rates
There’s no sense in beating a dead horse or wading through another “same story, different day” assessment of rates. They were already at 20 year highs yesterday, so even a modest move higher would obviously enable the same claim. And it ended up being more than modest.
New scapegoats for today’s move are in short supply. Rate momentum is broadly negative. Traders remain unwilling to catch the falling knife of bond prices (lower bond prices = higher rates, all other things being equal), and it will take a sustained shift in economic data and inflation to bring about a sustained shift in rates.
The average lender is now well into the 7s for top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate offerings–in many cases, mid-to-upper 7’s.
Foist!
First to be first
For those commuting to the city from Monmouth county, it could get messy. Prices are going up and there might be a issue with connecting north of Pier 11. There may be only one stop, no riding further to WFC.
NY Waterway lost their bid for the Monmouth County Belford stop and now Seastreak is about to take it over. Turns out Seastreak does not yet have a permit to use the World Financial Center terminal at Brookfield place, so opening was pushed back from this month until January.
WFC terminal is owned by the Port Authority and operated by NY Waterway under contract. I have heard several large companies who have execs riding that ferry have been having meetings to get it approved, I would think Gov Murphy’s phone has been ringing, it’s his neighbors after all.
SeaStreak is offering two month passes.
40 trips for $720 =$18 a ride
20 trips for $420 =$21 a ride
One Way ticket is now $28, and round trip is $49..
Parking should remain free for now.
The previous monthly pass from NY Waterway was $642. They are blaming the cost of diesel for the price increases…
BTW all this talk about the cost of diesel etc, and releasing more oil from the reserves. When oil is refined about 30% of every barrel refined becomes diesel as part of the process, they cannot just choose to make only gasoline etc. We shut down and paird back many refineries since the pandemic, so inventory is low, and will remain that way as supplies will be tight for the near term. There is something like 1 million barrels a day in the USA less being refined today in the US than just a few years ago, and about 3 million barrels a day less worldwide.
BWT it’s estimated that China will now overtake the United States as the country with the most refining capacity by year’s end. They will continue to get their discounted oil from Russia and refine it themselves to continue growing their GDP to rival ours.
Elon’s electric semi is actually a great idea. As I mentioned to get Diesel from oil you have to make gasoline too. There might be some path here to the diesel dilemma if they go electric.
Range of this new Semi is estimated to be around 500 miles, which is about a far as driver can go in one shift. I just wish they made the batteries swappable, however they are attempting to charge them quickly. “Tesla Megacharger” using a 1,000 volt system..current supercharger is 480 volts… They estimate the truck can be charged in 1/2 hour using the mega charger.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
More info on the Tesla semi from yesterdays earnings call..
from Q3 earnings call:
“Tesla Semi is a max load Class 8 heavy truck, and very important no sacrifice to cargo capacity- 500 miles range with the cargo on level ground to be fair. A long range truck even with heavy cargo. People always talking about that it is impossible to make a long range heavy duty Class 8 truck and asking what is your assumptions about Wh/kg and Wh/mi and they looking with a blank stare and say hydrogen. That is not the answer. You dont need hydrogen for heavy trucking. We will ramping up Semi production through next year…and tentatively aiming for 50,000 unit in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.”
1000 kWh battery, weight of battery pack ~11000 lbs, Semi weight ~20000 lbs..Selling price of $250,000….
Truss is out as PM in the UK.
Unemployment claims fall sharply again. 75 bp a done deal for November, and December as well.
When are they going to figure out that raising rates is not having the impact that they are looking for?
3B – She might actually be better off resigning, as it seems there will be no tea time in England this winter. There is not enough electricity to run the kettles, the may have rolling blackouts if they cannot get more LNG tankers, they have little storage in the UK, same for Ireland too.
STFU
The Great Pumpkin says:
October 20, 2022 at 9:02 am
When are they going to figure out that raising rates is not having the impact that they are looking for?
2Y 460
10Y 416
3b – Truss decided to keep a secret too it seems, and cancelled their aircraft from flying in international airspace over the Baltic Sea etc for NATO efforts. Won’t be long now before there are more incident’s like this one. We are also flying spy aircraft constantly near Russia now. The Russians send up their fighter jets to shadow our aircraft and occasionally one of their fighter jocks gets and itchy trigger finger.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/20/ukraine-news-russia-war-putin-martial-law-strikes-drones/
F U, it’s the truth.
Good for people like me, I am stacking the chips and will go all in on the lows when the time comes. Feel bad for others. They are going to crash this ship if they keep this up. Mortgage industry is going to go bankrupt soon enough. Then housing will go bankrupt and the rest of the dominos will follow.
Chicago says:
October 20, 2022 at 9:08 am
STFU
I know nothing about Liz Truss, but seems to me the Truss kerfuffle says more about the state of affairs in the bloated, sclerotic welfare states of western Europe than it does about her policy goals. Ignoring the specifics of her proposal, it appears that 80+ years of welfare statism, and the resulting dependence of the general population on big govt, have made it impossible to even consider cutting taxes and streamlining govt in any way. That’s too bad, and it’s no doubt where we’re headed.
In the UK specifically, it seems the govt program with the most voracious appetite is the National Health Service. Out of curiosity, I’ve been poking around the NHS website to get a sense of what government-run health care looks like, and frankly, it looks like the DMV. Get a load of this doozy, pertaining to seeing a specialist in the UK…
“Under the NHS Constitution, if your GP refers you for a condition that’s not urgent, you have the right to start treatment led by a consultant within 18 weeks…”
Juice: Truss lasted 6 weeks, has to be a record for shortest ever term for PM. Politically she went from left wing in her earlier days (Liberal Party) to the right on the Conservative side. I understand energy costs will be increasing 80 percent this winter!! That’s insane!! Don’t know how the everyday people over there can deal with that. And rising rates, with all adjustable rate mortgages.
Ukraine/ Russia getting uglier, Putin getting desperate. It would not take much to blow it all up.
7.5 Mortgage rates, that will blow off the housing market bubble. Inflation embedded in the economy, the Fed has to keep raising. That’s what happens when you manipulate the market for a decade.
On oil & natural gas supply, I’ve been doing a lot of extra work on some natural gas, E&P companies this year. There are very large natural gas deposits underground offshore, that could have been developed years ago, but the green movement have increasingly worsened the NPV economics. Australia’s biggest offshore deposit is currently sitting in limbo almost entirely due to concerns about the cost of carbon capture. This is a sort of project that would take 5 years and $15b to get flowing, but the biggest question is how many billion dollars will it take to satisfy the CO2 regulators, to get approval, can the carbon capture actually be built at projected cost, and even more so, will the regulations change during the 20 year life of the gas field, which would need to operate till 2045 to earn an adequate return on investment. So many politicians who currently demand more investment and supply in time for their next election, have for years been saying they want to kill projects like these. Once these companies commit to FID (final investment decision), it’s nearly impossible to turn back. Would you bet your company on the whims of anti-fossil fuel regulators over the next 25 years? “Hurry up and invest in and produce my fossil fuel, voters don’t like high energy prices, grandmas are freezing!” Next year: “Drop dead, you enemies of humanity, evil fossil fuel companies”
How can the economy survive a housing market that is nonexistent? Housing sales and mortgage data says the market is nonexistent right now.
3b says:
October 20, 2022 at 9:37 am
7.5 Mortgage rates, that will blow off the housing market bubble. Inflation embedded in the economy, the Fed has to keep raising. That’s what happens when you manipulate the market for a decade.
Based on this behavior, the only thing I can figure is that Truss promised one version of herself internally to her party, and delivered something else in power.
Or maybe it’s just bad luck that she announced her plans in the midst of a financial markets blowup, discovered that the borrowing capacity of the UK isn’t unlimited, and her party found it easier to put all the blame on her personally and then throw her under the bus.
Policywise I didn’t see anything too out of the ordinary. Government subsidization of energy, government spending beyond its means. The tax “cuts” were modest, mostly the cancellation of planned hikes. The government energy subsidies were the dumbest thing, and the most expensive, but were probably the most popular with people.
Everything is going to suck a while in the UK. May as well let the commies in Labor take over so they can enjoy the misery of governing from that position.
10Y 418
More Small BS, it the neo-liberal con game of always running to give wealthy tax cuts as first response to turmoil. Piss-down economics does not work when people are suffering and the market laughed her off PM stage. Your side better wake up too if thinking their one-trick pony tax giveaway plan for billionaires will work this time.
Die, Housing industry..f-in die. I would rather it die than have ass-holes up street thinking they can sell pile of shit home for 40% more than 2021 price with zero investment. That is a much bigger problem.
Democratic Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams suggested having an abortion could be a solution to high inflation and claimed that “having children” is why people are worried about the price of gas and groceries.
I suggested this weeks ago as caustic satire. She’s making it a campaign message.
Die, Housing industry..f-in die. I would rather it die than have ass-holes up street thinking they can sell pile of shit home for 40% more than 2021 price with zero investment.
Ahh… nice rant! Right out of the “Fast Eddie” book of love regarding the housing industry!
Pumps,
I have more dry powder than the Returns department at J&J. I have tried to teach you how to invest instead of gambling. You told me I should have not sold my multi. In three years, that 800K is going to be worth two million and the only risk I will be taking is that of the financial collapse of the United States of America. Of course, that 800K does not even represent 1/3rd of my dry powder, though most of it is admittedly in retirement accounts, most of which is classified as ROTH, meaning I won’t pay any taxes on it in seven years when I begin withdrawals.
Last lesson, which you too will ignore:
You need not hit it out of the park to score a home run. A well placed hit combined with speedy base running and poor fielding can yield the same result. When you swing for the fences, you will usually strikeout. As a matter of fact, the league home run leaders have rarely won the MVP award. The key to successful investing is to minimize risk. The upward trend of the market, when combined with time and the power of compounding, will take care of the rest for you. The only thing you have control over is the timing of the purchases and sales. So you want to be risk adverse, and disciplined enough to wait for a bottom (not catch a falling knife) and not be so greedy that you miss the top (do you know how many times you said it’s different this time?).
It’s really quite easy to find the major tops and major bottoms. Sadly, the opportunities are rare. There have only been three opportunities in my lifetime of investing. The tech bubble, the financial crisis and now the Pandemic Stimulus debt crisis. I’ve been correct all three times, yet I’m often told, market timing is supposed to be a fool’s game. For full disclosure, I was wrong once, in December of 2019, where I suffered minimal damage as learned not to fight the FED (which saved me). I would agree with that statement as there are extremely few people that I know that have the discipline and patience to invest this way. You will never be one of them. But fear not.
Few will ever be.
So after you lick your wounds from reacting to late from your ARKK and DNA gambles, I’m sure you’ll go right back to doubling down on these same names. ARKK is forever damaged. DNA will have a fair shot to do well, but not without great risk.
I am currently taking advantage of the higher interest rates to fend off inflation. Besides maxing my treasury purchases, I have opened up 4 different checking accounts and 3 different brokerage accouns which all have introductory teasers which return upwards of 5%. They all have terms between 2 months and 6 months. For the brokerage accounts, I have opted out of allowing my shares to be lent out to avoid counterparty risk. Everything is insured by Uncle Sam. The best part of two of the brokerage promos is that they require ACAT transactions, which simply requires me to transfer some of my TDAmeritrade housed equities. I need not deposit any new money. So as the vast population who thought it was different this time loses 30% of their invested wealth this year, I will be break even or slightly down, as I still have some equities losing as I am not completely out of the market.
It sounds so simple, because it is. Just like profiting off of the casino. Again, it takes discipline and patience. Something you clearly don’t have.
Good luck Pumps. Enjoy your season.
Bystander: I agree. It was complete madness in the housing market, and now that will all be blown away, and ultimately it’s a good thing for the younger generations. As I have been saying, artificially low rates destroy economies. It’s ironic now to hear people pleading for the Fed to pivot and these high rates are hurting, when there are people warning about this for years, only to be laughed off by the cheerleaders for low rates who believed they were entitled to these low rates. The fundamentals don’t change, they may be delayed as they were this time around, but ultimately they don’t change. Its unfortunate now that innocent people will suffer in this down turn, but that’s what happens when the Fed wrecks the markets/ economy.
Lib: A very smart man at GS told me years ago( the guy is well known in the market) bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. I have always remembered that.
Artificially cheap credit is the heroin central banks have been pushing for over a decade. Withdrawal is a bitch. Not just for households but will be for governments as well.
Don’t worry, they’ll probably try to be shooting up again before too long.
400k mortgage at 3:00 interest end of last year, equals approximately a monthly payment of 1700.00. Same mortgage amount today at 7.5 interest rate equals approximately a monthly payment of 2800.00. That says it all.
“Don’t worry, they’ll probably try to be shooting up again before too long.”
Which is why I expect the recession to be short. I have no doubt that once there is blood in the streets, interest rates will be lowered to repeat our mistakes once again.
Lib: Except I don’t think it will work this time. Inflation too embedded.
Lib,
“There have only been three opportunities in my lifetime of investing”
The problem is that there will be a fourth then a fifth…etc. The bailout cycles will continue because any spook in the markets causes over-reaction of printing press by Fed. It distorts and destabilizes economy each time.
Bystander says:
October 20, 2022 at 9:52 am
“wealthy tax cuts…Piss-down economics…people are suffering…tax giveaway plan for billionaires”
Exhibit A for what govt dependence sounds like. Precisely the kind of rube that votes for imbeciles like Joe Biden and Carmella Harris.
Georgia Governor candidate Stacey Abrams says abortion will reduce inflation. It’s exactly that kind of critical thinking that assures me we have the best and the brightest running for political office across this great country. Her analysis is just so thoughtful and profound.
Guys, stop getting crazy. The Infellatio Reduction Act is about to kick in any moment now.
We will always have that and music,Ed.
3b,
The simple question I have for housing market – where is the income originating to support 40% surge in home prices and 8% rates? I can assure you that businesses are not looking to higher pay wages due to housing costs or inflation. People should look around 150K is the new basic 100k, 200K is the new 150k etc. You won’t find those wages, even in NYC. The younger gen will need that income to afford life going forward..period
By,
It’s going to collapse. Just wait. Remember, housing moves like an aircraft carrier. And much of the data is 3 months behind. I would not be surprised by a 30% haircut, and could even see a 40% if contagion hits the banks again.
Bystander: I agree. 40 percent increase in prices in two years is absolute madness, and we heard the BS that the increase was all driven by demand, Millenials need housing, they have massive amounts of cash, and they all make huge amounts of money, blah, blah, blah. Yeah, driven by 3 percent mortgage rates. Now rates are 7 and rising, and no demand? Don’t the Millenials still need housing? Do they not have massive amounts of cash, and still make huge amounts of money? All rah rah BS. And now some of the same cheerleaders free market capitalism want the Fed to come back in and make it all nice again. You can’t keep screwing the younger generations and then complain when socialism starts to sound attractive to some of them.
I wonder if you can nab this with a “4” handle? I think it’s got good-sized rooms. Needs work for sure but this could be a sleeper:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/river-vale/636-athlone-ter-river-vale-nj-07675–2006757507
Lib,
Awesome job!
I am on the same exact track as you. Different paths can be taken. By 50, real estate alone, I will be worth a bunch. Mortgage free. I’m 42 right now, and by 50, I plan to absolutely kill it in the stock market buying these lows this decade, and maybe even taking some off the stock plate when it runs up and buy back into real estate for a couple of years to make money off the lows there also.
These cats are smoking diesel if they think they’re getting anything close to this price:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/hillsdale/20-chelsea-ct-hillsdale-nj-07642–2006680769
You are funny, you ignore the fact that the Fed raised rates at an insane pace, and then you cry where is the demand? Get real, dude.
You can’t have it both ways. Claim that low rates led to artificial demand and that high rates don’t lead to artificial lowering of demand. Demand is there, just because you live in your house, doesn’t mean others are in the same position. They want to buy, but the Fed cut them off.
3b says:
October 20, 2022 at 10:49 am
Bystander: I agree. 40 percent increase in prices in two years is absolute madness, and we heard the BS that the increase was all driven by demand, Millenials need housing, they have massive amounts of cash, and they all make huge amounts of money, blah, blah, blah.
Yeah. Let’s exterminate our children for financial reasons while simultaneously being a dumpster and social program for the third world. The left is full of great ideas.
Georgia in particular seems to be producing some works class morons on both sides. My guess it’s a preview of the post woke world idiocracy.
OPAI: OFFICE OF PUBLIC ALCOHOL INTOXICATION — “Attorney General’s Office detective gets arrested at N. Wildwood bar,” by Breaking AC’s Lynda Cohen: “A sergeant with the state Attorney General’s Office was arrested last month when she allegedly kept trying to sneak into a North Wildwood bar several times after she had been kicked out. Danielle Oliveira, 32, was charged with defiant trespass on Sept. 24, during the Irish Fall Festival . She told arresting officers that she worked for the State Police, which was captured on body camera footage obtained by BreakingAC. But she is actually a sergeant with the Attorney General’s Office of Public Integrity and Accountability …
“Another member of the office, Lt. Cortney Lawrence, told North Wildwood Police Lt. Adam McGraw that her friend — who is poised for a promotion to lieutenant — investigates police-involved shootings in the northern part of the state. In fact, Lawrence claimed it was a police-involved shooting that caused Oliveira to leave the bar and take a call outside. BreakingAC was unable to find any evidence of a police-involved shooting that night. There also is the question of how a detective who was determined by police to be intoxicated would be on call for such an incident.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JFlHvd3mak
Breaking AC first reported Olivera’s arrest, on Oct. 15, and published footage from police officers’ body cameras.
According to North Wildwood police reports on the incident, officers patrolling the festival on foot first encountered Oliveira as she tried to enter the bar through an exit. Bar employees said she was not welcome and they wanted her off the property.
A patrol officer and sergeant told Oliveira to leave the bar property, but she persisted in arguing with Keenan’s staffers and the officers. After several more warnings from the officers, Oliveira “reluctantly complied” and told the North Wildwood sergeant she was a police officer.
The North Wildwood sergeant told Oliveira if she returned to the bar, she’d be arrested.
About 10 minutes later, Oliveira did, and tried again to enter through an exit. The officers then arrested her.
An Oliveira colleague, Attorney General’s Lt. Cortney Lawrence, spoke with a North Wildwood lieutenant at the scene, the reports say and body camera footage shows.
Lawrence said Oliveira investigates fatal shootings involving police officers and had stepped out of the bar to take a call about a shooting in North Jersey, but it turned out if was not fatal and Oliveira did not have to respond. Lawrence also left the bar to make a call, and she’d asked Keenan’s if Oliveira could return, and was told no.
Oliveira is also an acting lieutenant with the police shooting unit, Lawrence said to police at the scene, according to the police reports. Lawrence was not charged.
The North Wildwood police department declined to comment on the incident.
Taxpayers gonna eat this boot as well:
https://www.nbcnews.com/video/indianapolis-police-sergeant-arrested-after-body-camera-footage-shows-him-kicking-handcuffed-man-in-the-face-123435077747
Just for the interested. UK mortgages are traditionally floating rate, not fixed as in US.
Lots of housing purchased there with rates close to zero.
Let the fireworks begin. How this spills over here is up for speculation.
Chicago says:
October 20, 2022 at 11:45 am
“UK mortgages are traditionally floating rate…Lots of housing purchased there with rates close to zero.”
I agree this is a potential disaster, but if I’m not mistaken from my experience with a floating rate mortgage in the early 90’s, each adjustment period (which for me I believe was every 3 years) came with an adjustment cap of 100bp. So while I certainly don’t know this for a fact, it’s possible that the scope of the problem may be somewhat alleviated by multi-year adjustment terms, and rate increase caps???
It was a split second decision, they based their actions on their perceptions, you were not there and do not know all the facts, do NOT Monday morning quarter back what they did.
https://www.fox19.com/2022/10/18/2-fairfield-police-officers-resign-after-failing-fire-armed-homicide-suspect/
Unless of course if you do not shoot someone, then it’s fair game.
10:46 hats off to those who locked in early or sold in time.
Damn!! The window was there but it’s closing …fast.
You pro-Trumpers are OK with the orange guy fundraising for his lie about the “stolen election”??!
As the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol wrapped up its second day of public hearings, Rep. Zoe Lofgren tied the Trump campaign’s false claims about election fraud, and its repeated litigation of the 2020 election, to its fundraising tactics.
“If the litigation had stopped on Dec. 14, there would have been no fight to defend the election and no clear path to continue to raise millions of dollars,” the California Democrat said.
The hearing, the second in a series about the committee’s findings, focused on former President Donald Trump’s role in perpetuating the lie that the 2020 election was stolen.
Lofgren played a video that featured Amanda Wick, senior investigative counsel for the committee, whose comments were interspersed with snapshots of Trump campaign fundraising emails sent to donors between Election Day and Jan. 6, many of which claimed the “left wing mob was undermining the election.”
Cont’d
“As the select committee has demonstrated, the Trump campaign knew these claims of voter fraud were false, yet they continued to barrage small dollar donors with emails, encouraging them to donate to something called an Official Election Defense Fund,” Wick said.
“Claims that the election was stolen were so successful, President Trump and his allies raised $250 million, nearly $100 million in the first week after the election,” Wick said.
She added that the committee discovered that the fund did not exist.
She detailed how Trump created a separate entity called the “Save America” PAC on Nov. 9, 2020.
“Most of the money raised went to this newly created PAC, not to election-related litigation,” she said, adding that the committee discovered that this PAC gave millions in contributions to pro-Trump organizations.
Lofgren said that political fundraising is part of the electoral process and allows voters to make their voices heard, but that they “deserve the truth about what those funds will be used for.”
Ex,
Orange Traitor boy’s grift is as follow. Remember he has $400 millions in loans to refinance by 2024. And only 4 properties make money for him. Trump Tower, World, the partnership with Vornado and Mar a Lago was even until he moved in there and his traitors circus moved there.
Raise money. Raised money pays for multiple contractors, events, conferences, etc that all of them the family businesses gets compensated directly or indirectly
The fundraising of money via PACS is free for all. Actual campaign expenditure outside of direct PAC paid advertising is highly regulated. The Traitor has or is creating a infrastructure that mimics his daddy’s real estate infrastructure to clean all those raised funds so it can find its way to his pockets.
10 yr. @ 4.18
Buy now or be priced out forever. Suzanne researched it.
Ba ba boyyaa!
I thought about selling my rental, and then holding the cash to throw into the stock market. It’s a tough decision. Really tough. Having the house gives me really nice passive income, and if I ever get screwed, I will never be homeless. Will provide an income and a place to live (even if I had to live in the basement for a short time…it’s a finished basement that is grandfathered in…but refuse to take the risk to rent it out).
Have thought about combining first floor/basement unit, but might end up leading to problems as people try to rent it out airbnb style and take me out. It would be a two kitchen unit, with a lot of bedrooms. Most landlords would be taking complete advantage, that’s for sure.
10 yr. @ 4.21
Ooofa. Everybody Wang Chung tonight.
Fast : We have Millenials with tons of cash and huge incomes, I don’t understand why an increase in monthly mortgage payments of only 1100.00 a month killed all the demand, that’s nothing for these uber wealthy Millenials to pay.
I locked in at 1.9 on my ten-year. Booyah!
https://963kklz.com/2022/10/18/las-vegas-housing-market-finally-slowing-down/
Say it ain’t so!
3b,
As a house tour guide once uttered to me at an open house, “The price is warranted! This town draws a particular buyer.”
Yes, words of wisdom from a menopausal, defunct hair dresser as she tried to put the cabinet door back on its hinges.
When to expect the housing market downturn to conclude, according to Wells Fargo
“Markets where home prices shot the highest are now vulnerable to a disproportionate swing to the downside, notably in previously white-hot markets in the Mountain West which saw an influx of remote workers at the onset of the pandemic. Home prices in desirable locations with comparatively tighter supply are likely to hold up much better,” write Wells Fargo researchers.
You can trust these guys…Wells Fargo Agrees to Pay $3 Billion to Resolve Criminal and Civil Investigations into Sales Practices Involving the Opening of Millions of Accounts without Customer Authorization
https://www.yahoo.com/video/still-early-innings-housing-market-083905781.html
Fast: Love it!!
“and if I ever get screwed, I will never be homeless”
I told you this years ago, we will have a war whether internal or external before you get to your steak dinner at retirement. All this on paper investment and savings would be for naught. The drums are beating..
Scary.
It’s the psychology of the market. Wake up. You think people are running to sign up with all this doom and gloom? No, they are assuming they will get it for cheaper next year. Too bad by then, they won’t have a job.
3b says:
October 20, 2022 at 1:37 pm
Fast : We have Millenials with tons of cash and huge incomes, I don’t understand why an increase in monthly mortgage payments of only 1100.00 a month killed all the demand, that’s nothing for these uber wealthy Millenials to pay.
That’s why real estate is a beautiful thing to own. Land will always carry a value, esp if it produces an income.
Bystander says:
October 20, 2022 at 2:03 pm
“and if I ever get screwed, I will never be homeless”
I told you this years ago, we will have a war whether internal or external before you get to your steak dinner at retirement. All this on paper investment and savings would be for naught. The drums are beating..
The Ten WTF?
Well, the Brits seem hell bent on doing everything possible to fuck up my vol trade…although VIX is coming in actually with the market down a point and rates topping…good sign…it’s been the opposite for too many days now.
Lib, careful on the securities in your name…may want to check with your brokerage…someone in my trading group within the last year did the same and got jammed up…can’t recall the specifics but could not sell quickly…do they have to be transferred back to Street name first, that doesn’t seem right…anyway, he definitely sat there and watched the market crater and couldn’t get out right away…just a thought…
Sell? Sell to whom?
I miss BC Bob.
Markets are returning to real markets for grown ups, after the lat decade of insanity. 10 year at a 4.20.
Bystander: There will definitely be a war at some point, perhaps a major one. WSJ article says the US is poorly prepared for any kind of significant regional war, never mind a major war.
Dr Doom is at it again with a piece in Bloomberg he is even doomier and gloomier than usual.
And there is a separate piece on how we may see a repeat of the global housing crash of 30 years ago.
3b,
Bring it!
Perhaps the yield on the treasuries is going up so much because no one wants to buy our debt anymore. I don’t blame them with the recession that’s coming.
I would expect gold to make a move at some point, though I don’t play those games.
Banana Joe is hollowing out the Military. They can’t reach enlistment or retention goals because of his woke programs and pointless vaccine mandates.
My guess is it’s another intentional fvck up. He’s used the mandate to purge from other institutions.
We can rely on mercenaries just like a banana republic would. He has an affinity for third world tactics.
Left. Appreciate the warning. I don’t plan on trading any of the equities in the fly by night brokers. Worse case scenario, I transfer the ETF shares back to Ameritrade. The deals in the smaller brokerages (like Public), are only for 10K in holdings ($400 bonus). Easy money. Need to keep it there for two months.
Lib: It could have been avoided but for the reckless Fed. As for something braking, it will be a believe the treasury market, liquidity concerns. All the morons out there for years cheering this madness on. Oh and debt does matter.
4:44 says the idiot that applauds banana republic authoritarian tactics and el Presidenté Drumpf.
BidenGoat: According to the WSJ article less than one quarter of recruits in the 17 to 24 age group are eligible to serve and the reasons for disqualification include obesity, addiction, and criminal history.
Obesity.
Would love to see a chunky army. I would be like the cruise ships on Wall-E.
Lib: Oh boy!! You are too hard on yourself!!
Should N.J. schools close for religious holidays? Districts grapple with adding, eliminating days.
https://www.nj.com/education/2022/10/should-nj-schools-close-for-religious-holidays-districts-grapple-with-adding-eliminating-days.html
3b,
A remake of Full Metal Jacket 2002 – they are all Private Pyles, claiming that Sergeant Hartman abused and body-shamed them. He gets fired and they all sit around eating donuts.
2022
Katie gets her whiteboard out to school the country on the current inflation numbers and who is responsible. Hint Gary, its not Biden,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30_H33mS76Y
Now Left this is a VERY interesting take. If she’s right, you get great earnings and stocks and stocks should rip? There is only so many places you can dump excess retained earnings in a hurry. How do you hedge that?
” the reasons for disqualification include obesity, addiction, and criminal history.”
And looking at the Recruitment by state, lets see if you can join the dots. https://www.governing.com/archive/military-civilian-active-duty-employee-workforce-numbers-by-state.html
“the Truss kerfuffle says more about the state of affairs in the bloated, sclerotic welfare states of western Europe than it does about her policy goals.”
No. Truss went for the Thatcher play of hard right, grow the economy and Trickle down will take care of the rest. We need hard Austerity and tax cuts to spur growth. The markets BOE and even a lot in her own party said ‘Read the Room!”
Thatcher got away with it as she was awash in North Sea Oil Revenue so she bought her success. She P1$$ed all that Oil Revenue up the wall back stopping Privatization of National entities. Liz tried the same play without the revenue as was called for it.
The Tories can hold out until Jan 2025 to turn things around and they have to have an election. If they have one before them they will get creamed.
Feds Harker says we will be well above 4 percent FFR by end of year, also said Fed hikes so far not working, to curb inflation and so rate rises will continue.
re: Fed hikes so far not working..
It will crush housing for now and make borrowing expensive for every consumer but it will take a year of layoffs for it to trickle down into the regular metrics of inflation which is PCE, and CPI…
Juice: Housing got way out of control and the Fed knows it, and know as prices have to drop significantly, and yes it will take about a year to really filter down into CPI etc.
“I have opted out of allowing my shares to be lent out to avoid counterparty risk.”
This is bringing back memories. One of the reasons Chi is pi$$ed at me is that I made the claim that I had a role/job, ( I have since moved roles) that only 160 people in the world had. That was true and someday I will explain it to him, just not in a public forum when I’m still in the same company. I have found myself in a few niche area over the years and SBL is one (although its been a few years).
So Chi, to show my Bona Fides, what we are looking at is Rehypothification. While usually used with larger entities, it can get down to the retail user. Usually retail is holding stocks that are on the books anyway so throwing them into the pool is not really an issue. Its more the axiom “better looking at it than looking for it” If you have something like the VW short squeeze, it is nice to add all those retail holdings to the play.
Lib, opting out, means it gets flagged for Safe Custody. Check your agreement to see if they are charging you for it. Also check your agreement, Left is correct that most firms are Block Trading off the firm book, so you may have a delay while they move the stock out of Safe Keeping.
Did you mean rehypothecation?
Joyce re: Did you mean rehypothecation?
He meant contagion…. brokerage borrows “stuff” lent to them and then gambles with it. It was the main cause of the “Lehman event”.
If Fab actually worked for Lehman he is forever stained. What was it 6 million families evicted? I lost track around 2011 about 3 years after that collapse which we are only NOW trying to reconcile by stopping the bond buying that began in 2008…
Yes Joyce,
You are correct. I do have to say, it always amazes me how you take pedanticry (sic) to such high levels!
3b – You and yours and me and mine are going to see lots of sad faces. They know you and I and even GASP even PUMPKIN has some GRASP of what is going on, and worse they will be asking for advise….
I have a few cousins that are recently married….big family of Irish fuckers that we are and all. …Make sure you practice it front of the mirror, “it’s transitory”,” it will pass”, “enjoy your life you are young”, “you can always refinance” etc, and the best yet “DON’T BUY TOO MUCH HOUSE.”
Fab _ Lehman Alumni or not?
Juice,
No Rehypo,
Never worked for them but did a lot of work with them Pre and Post. I had a front seat for a lot of it and a lot of stories.
They are just finishing winding it up. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/after-14-years-lehman-brothers-brokerage-ends-liquidation-2022-09-28/
Fab – 100 Our Father and 50 Hail Mary….and off you go…
Juice: Agreed, sad it could have been prevented. I know some people who have made some absolutely insane financial decisions these last few years, and some of them. I also know quite a few none of them in the business like I have been for years, lecture me, on how I don t understand, blah, blah, they wouldn’t know a 10 year tread from an inverse floater, to FF rate or anything else. But they were the experts. I know a few family members on my wife’s side, who are the absolute stupidest and arrogant people I have ever encountered. We always knew they were not the sharpest and just smiled, but this past year has been eye opening in that regards. As for the advice we gave some about a year ago, a warming not to do something, we were nicely told to feck off!! And they doubled down from there!! Absolute dumb as dirt, and arrogant, but oh well we tried. If they come back I would like to tell them feck off, but I will certainly tell them I told you so.
Juice,
If I started that I would not stop. I can chalk of 37 off this list.
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/the-world-s-100-largest-banks-2022-69651785
Where under the rules of capitalism does this fairy tale of affordable housing exist? It doesn’t.
3b says:
October 20, 2022 at 8:07 pm
Juice: Housing got way out of control and the Fed knows it, and know as prices have to drop significantly, and yes it will take about a year to really filter down into CPI etc.
You can erroneously think whatever you want, as always. I was familiar with rehypothecation… never heard of Rehypothification, so I googled it. I thought it was a typo, but with spellcheck and the fact that it was the main part of your post, then I thought maybe it was something new so I was asked.
Fabius Maximus says:
October 20, 2022 at 10:05 pm
So you’re familiar with rehypothecation? You Googled my spelling and Google told you I had misspelled. Your familiar with the term so I assume you know the definition of your word fits into the discussion. So why point it out?
People post with misspellings and grammar mistakes all the time. Most people ignore it as it is clear what their post was trying to convey. We don’t need the Pedantic Grammar Police in here.
Your post reeks of incincerity (sic). And yes I am being pedantic.
You don’t need to intentionally misspell words; that will happen all on its own.
So you’re familiar with rehypothecation… yes, I am. Do you know how I became familiar with it? I was reading something, came across a word I didn’t know, looked it up and started reading about it. Unlike what you think about yourself, I am not all-knowing. There’s a lot about the modern banking/financial system that I am not an expert on but try to learn and understand. I thought there was a chance Rehypothification was something new that I never heard of… there are google search results for ‘Rehypothification.’
You guys make me laugh.
Should we sell our houses and wait for the crash?