From CNBC:
Existing home sales fall to a 10-year low in September, as mortgage rates soar
Existing homes are selling at the slowest pace since September 2012, with the exception of a brief drop at the start of the Covid 19 pandemic.
Sales of previously owned homes fell 1.5% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.71 million units, according to a monthly survey from the National Association of Realtors.
That marked the eighth straight month of sales declines. Sales were lower by 23.8% year over year.
Sharply higher mortgage rates are causing an abrupt slowdown in the housing market. The average rate on the 30-year fixed home loan is now just over 7%, after starting this year around 3%. That is making an already pricey housing market even less affordable.
Despite the slowdown in sales, inventory continues to drop. There were 1.25 million homes for sales at the end of September, down 0.8% compared with September 2021. At the current sales pace, that represents a 3.2-month supply. Six months is considered a balanced supply.
“Despite weaker sales, multiple offers are still occurring with more than a quarter of homes selling above list price due to limited inventory,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR. “The current lack of supply underscores the vast contrast with the previous major market downturn from 2008 to 2010, when inventory levels were four times higher than they are today.”
Tight supply continues to put pressure on home prices. The median price of an existing home sold in September was $384,800, an increase of 8.4% from September 2021. Prices climbed at all price points. This makes 127 consecutive months of annual increases.
First
Won’t be long now before there are more incident’s like this one. We are also flying spy aircraft constantly near Russia now. The Russians send up their fighter jets to shadow our aircraft and occasionally one of their fighter jocks gets and itchy trigger finger.
You’ll never say hello to you
Until you get it on the red line overload
You’ll never know what you can do
Until you get it up as high as you can go
Out along the edges
Always where I burn to be
The further on the edge
The hotter the intensity
Highway to the Danger Zone
Start your day right: https://youtu.be/siwpn14IE7E
Sniped for first spot between posting and commenting.
Right up until the war began we were flying USAF E-8C reconnaissance flights all the way to Russian border over the Ukraine Donbass region.
Looking forward to the next generation of startups that will be formed in the ashes of the fangs. Indeed, pigs get slaughtered.
The best and original is New York, New York.
However, Africa was unexpectedly and really cracks me up.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jY4sz9qykBw
2Y 462
10Y 430
The Ten WTF?
Would YOU buy our debt for the next ten years?
The real question is, who the hell was buying it at .7% 2 years ago?
I’ve got to imagine there is someone out there writing low-risk mortgages at 5-6% and cleaning up right now.
Tight supply continues to put pressure on home prices.
Yup. Nothing to buy. People aren’t selling with their 3.x% rates locked in. Mine is at 3.8% and I thought about refinancing when it was around 2.x% but wasn’t sure if it was worth it if I was going to sell in a couple of years and downsize. I could’ve knocked about $250 off the monthly payment. Hmmm…. oh well.
But, I’m looking at Trulia and Zillow and I see scarce listings. Is that what most view to see what’s out there? Are there any ‘go to’ sites that are more accurate?
And plenty of people in the mortgage game losing a bundle too..
“Ally Financial reported a $136 million impairment on its investment into Better.com, a figure reflecting the mortgage market’s struggles, Ally executives said Wednesday.”
https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/ally-financial-reveals-136-million-loss-in-better-com-investment
Ally is the primary sponsor for the #48 Hendrick car. Here’s one of the many cool color scheme’s of Alex Bowman’s rides:
https://heavy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/AlexBowmanRender.png?resize=1024,576
Eddie,
I’m essentially trapped in my home. I owe about $180k on the mortgage and have 13 years remaining in at 2.3% and the solar on my house allows me to purchase energy at a low rate that’s fixed at a growth rate of 2.9% over a 20 year contract. Moving out would drastically reduce my standard of living unless I purchased a smaller home for cash.
BRT,
At 2.3%, it’s practically free money. Sit back, keep building your equity and sell to the poor millennial muppets when things turn the other way again.
BRT – re: “The real question is”
Social Security Trust Fund & FED etc – 8 Trillion in UST
Foreign Holders 7 Trillion
Mutual Funds 3.7 Trillion
Banks 1.5 Trillion
State and Local Gov 1.1 Trillion
Pension Funds 1.3 Trillion
Ed oldest Millennial is now 41.
You may be selling to a Gen Z, oldest is now 25.
Juice,
Yes, Gen Z muppets.
Fast: 25 house for sale in my town, nothing appears to be moving. Those with super low rates, will not sell unless forced because of the recession. Still lots of older people in Bergen Co too who will at some point be selling. I know a few people who got greedy and waited and are now sorry they did not sell. This decline/ reversal is just getting started.
17 days to election day.
Early voting has been running already in a lot of places, it’s starting today in others, starting in a bunch on Tuesday (i.e., 14 days out), etc.
I remain surprised that R’s are not hitting the D’s around the country for the fact that the D’s were authoritarian and wrong about Covid. I suppose the more-effective attack is on inflation and crime. Not much messaging on the party of shutting down schools, voodoo science and Fauci.
Article in MarketWatch this morning discussing mortgage rates hitting double digits next year, FFR increases take time to seep into mortgage rates, and even if the Fed stops raising next year, previous rate increases can push mortgage rates to 10 percent.
Given the very strong dollar, my wife and I are looking at flats in Europe. Talk about a quality of life increase!
In terms of ongoing costs, property taxes are immaterial, but the overall tax picture is still muddy. I need to book time with a tax attorney to better understand if I can get below the essentially effective individual rate of 32%.
Boomer Remover at 9:54 . . .
If you are thinking of going expat, you might want to watch some Nomad Capitalist on youtube. You might be able to set residency in an extreme-low-tax jurisdiction then spend 5 months in your European flat and such, while being subject to tiny income tax.
Yea, right. They won’t sell. They will wait for prices to return. Old people are stubborn, cheap, and have been around the block.
3b says:
October 21, 2022 at 9:37 am
Fast: 25 house for sale in my town, nothing appears to be moving. Those with super low rates, will not sell unless forced because of the recession. Still lots of older people in Bergen Co too who will at some point be selling. I know a few people who got greedy and waited and are now sorry they did not sell. This decline/ reversal is just getting started.
And what do you think happens to the housing market? Would you take out a mortgage at 10%? Neither will most people.
3b says:
October 21, 2022 at 9:51 am
Article in MarketWatch this morning discussing mortgage rates hitting double digits next year, FFR increases take time to seep into mortgage rates, and even if the Fed stops raising next year, previous rate increases can push mortgage rates to 10 percent.
Old people are also limited on the time they have left. Retirement and moving out of state often occur very quickly at the drop of a hat.
PSEG bill up 25%. They raised it. I love that my district just accepted a 3% raise on a 3 year contract. Talk about getting robbed. Glad I don’t depend on paycheck to survive week to week.
Who in their right mind accepts a 1% raise per year in this environment. Good luck getting teachers in the future.
Not in this environment.
BRT says:
October 21, 2022 at 10:47 am
Old people are also limited on the time they have left. Retirement and moving out of state often occur very quickly at the drop of a hat.
Lmao…
Wall Street’s ‘Dr. Doom’ thinks you’re stupid for moving during the pandemic: ‘Florida is going to be flooded and Texas is going to be too hot to survive there’
https://www.yahoo.com/video/wall-street-dr-doom-thinks-191936442.html
9:12 as clearly and notably the stupidest f-ck on this board;
How do you even consider labeling somebody…anybody a muppet.
There are a half million people 75 years and older living in NJ. All those POS capes will be hitting the market soon.
We install penile implants in 80 year olds on Medicare.
They aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.
“There are a half million people 75 years and older living in NJ. All those POS capes will be hitting the market soon.”
11:04 honestly, Jersey is a tough sell.
Ask a corporate recruiter. Blue ribbon schools and all.
Crushed — Thanks for the recommendation, though as a parent IRS audits and evasion charges seem like a hassle. I’ll see how low the vanilla attorneys think they can do.
My other concern as we kick this around, is a dedicated internet tunnel across the Atlantic. I’m not sure a consumer grade VPN will cut it. Here I think I can rent a static IP from a US based colocation facility and rent a slice of dedicated bandwidth.
Who in their right mind accepts a 1% raise per year in this environment. Good luck getting teachers in the future.
Your union reps
There will be hysterical denying as we go forward.
9:12 as clearly and notably the stupidest f-ck on this board;
How do you even consider labeling somebody…anybody a muppet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1B-WndVEIcA
So it begins…lmao
FED’S DALY: WE WILL PERFORM A STEP-DOWN, BUT NOT A PAUSE, TO 50 OR 25 BPS INCREMENTS.
I’m beginning to see the light…
So much hate for the union by the right when they are doing God’s work for them. Holding these wages down.
BRT says:
October 21, 2022 at 11:31 am
Who in their right mind accepts a 1% raise per year in this environment. Good luck getting teachers in the future.
Your union reps
Who in their right mind accepts a 1% raise per year in this environment. Good luck getting teachers in the future.
There are two factors occurring right now, that are occurring at the highest level in recent history, that points to anyone sticking around in a lower paying job essentially being a complete idiot for doing it.
1) The Job Stayer “tax” (aka penalty) – The delta in wages between tenured employees and new hires has been dramatically shrinking. In many cases, there are scenarios where new hires are coming in at wages substantially higher than existing personnel in the same roles. Essentially, everyone sticking around is paying a penalty for doing so. There is no reward where tenure results in higher wages.
2) Pay Compression – Lower wage roles in the same company have been seeing wage acceleration far greater than mid-tiers. In many companies, the delta between these low and middle groups is now the smallest it’s ever been. Increases in minimum wage, living wage, etc etc. These middle groups are often being penalized by the need to increase wages at the lower end. Smaller raises, non-existent raises, etc etc.
The reality is, nobody is sticking around for a 1% raise, when they can quit and find a new job, and in many cases easily find a new job at a wage that would far outweigh any raise or bonus they might have anticipated receiving.
Anyone have thoughts on VZ? Shouldn’t these stocks be going up with sprint out of the game?
Biden cut budget deficit by half and no one talks about it here?
BREAKING
Bannon Sentenced to 4 Months in Prison for Contempt of Congress
Stephen Bannon was found guilty of two counts of contempt of Congress this summer for defying a subpoena from the House Jan. 6 committee.
Yeah. That’s what third world dictators do. They use the power of the state against their political enemies.
Fauci illegally funded dangerous research that ended up killing millions and costing trillions and then lied to congress about it. No legal problems for him because of the political cover. Banana republic stuff.
$2,772 is what it was in 2021 massive pandemic spending. It’s 1.4 trillion this year still way too much.
It should be closers to previous years.
2016 $585
2017 $665
2018 $779
1:30 I did a couple of years at a Charter School.
Weird, small place but I worked virtually through lockdown and one year post- pandemic in person. Worked very hard for $25 k below scale.
Did not return and interviewed over the summer.
Found a job working muuuuch less and making $25k a year more. Boooyah
crushednjmillenial says:
October 21, 2022 at 9:45 am
17 days to election day.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4W5aKwrsYIM
“FED’S DALY: WE WILL PERFORM A STEP-DOWN, BUT NOT A PAUSE, TO 50 OR 25 BPS INCREMENTS.”
Is this a joke? Boomer portfolios must be preserved at all costs, eh?
The non- union teaching job paid low…
It was the Union job that paid well. Shocking.
The union established the compensation steps.
A charter? Can choose to pay well … or not.
The union establishes the steps, and ensures you can never go more than a step per year. The entire idea of working hard, establishing yourself and getting rewarded for it is non-existent. You have to leave for another place to make that happen.
Stability & consistency.
The steps at least represent an attempt at fairness.
You are essentially a public servant. A gub’mint job.
Wanna make big bucks? Private industry.
Stock options.
Ex,
You pay for what you get. That’s why there is a teacher shortage.
So this Daly lady says we may tap the brakes on these interest rate hikes and J Pow said two weeks ago that they won’t stop until inflation is closer to 2%. Umm… can someone explain?
A Two issued last year with a 0.125% handle maturing next year is trading with a yield of 4.5%….. it’s what we have been discussing for weeks, but looking at inventory….. it is just shocking…… Booya …
Teacher shortage is overblown.
I don’t believe decent schools are experiencing
a shortage. It’s the bad places that feel the pinch.
Fast: Daly said they may scale back from 75 to 50, but not pause from continuing to raise rates. 75bp is done for November, and then December they do 50 right in the middle of 50/75. After that their next meeting is Jan 31/Feb1. They will proceed from there.
BREAKING
WASHINGTON — The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack issued a subpoena on Friday to Donald J. Trump, paving the way for a potentially historic court fight over whether Congress can compel testimony from a former president.
The subpoena was the most aggressive step taken so far by what was already one of the most consequential congressional investigations in decades. Coming as the Justice Department conducts a separate criminal inquiry into efforts to overturn the 2020 election and weeks before the midterm elections, the subpoena threatened to thrust Mr. Trump and the Jan. 6 committee into a protracted legal battle that could ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court.
Teaching programs at colleges barely have any students signing up. This is only the beginning. Instead of paying up, they will just lower the standards like they are already doing. Money talks, bs walks.
Ex says:
October 21, 2022 at 4:26 pm
Teacher shortage is overblown.
I don’t believe decent schools are experiencing
a shortage. It’s the bad places that feel the pinch.
No point in even listening. You know what they are going to do in time…why? Because they have no choice. Life is a biatch.
Fast Eddie says:
October 21, 2022 at 3:39 pm
So this Daly lady says we may tap the brakes on these interest rate hikes and J Pow said two weeks ago that they won’t stop until inflation is closer to 2%. Umm… can someone explain?
And then when they fill the schools with complete losers…they will blame the teachers for the sad performance. Who lowered the standards instead of paying up? That’s right…
Lol…
“The #bond market was in the process of crashing and just like the BoE, the #Fed folded with a soft-pivot. The Fed’s bluff has been called. Instead of a bond crash it will be a dollar crash. Of course, when the dollar crashes, the real value of bonds crashes too. #Gold will moon!” Schiff
Interesting
“JUST IN: In Taiwan, investors will no longer be able to short stocks at a price lower than the previous close if shares drop more than 3.5% the day before, the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission has said in a statement per Bloomberg. The rule is effective immediately.”
Schools of Ed., decent ones will be OK.
Return to rigor! Roooock on
A stock market crash isn’t the end of the world.
A bond market crash IS when you have $300 trillion in debt.
Never in an EXTREME drawdown for stocks have Treasuries GONE DOWN MORE THAN STOCKS.
If this doesn’t end, it’s THE end.
Which is why a melt-up in stocks is likely. $SPX
You are def correct. Bad schools (poor) will suffer as will whatever middle class schools that are left, and the rich will still be okay. Reversion to the mean as we hollow at our middle class. State of our current education system is a reflection of our current class structure. Education was strong with a broad stroke in the past because you had a huge middle class that demanded the best and supported it. Now, you see education taking a back seat for the majority as it is directly correlated to our social class structure.
Ex says:
October 21, 2022 at 8:00 pm
Schools of Ed., decent ones will be OK.
Return to rigor! Roooock on
I don’t doubt it…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/prepare-china-invade-taiwan-year-top-navy-official
Homeowner (at low rate) lock-in is a myth. About 80-90% of homebuyers are also homesellers. Every “locked in” homeowner is also one less buyer. Lock-in is almost a wash — every non-seller is also a non-buyer. You have to go pretty deep into the current numbers to get a good estimation of the future. And with the speed of information these days, things can change much more rapidly. People in the 2005-2007 housing crisis didn’t have Zillow and other tools to accurately gauge the present state of the market. It’s funny, realtors and their orgs maintain a rosy outlook (relatively), whereas third parties only concerned with housing’s role in the overall economy and affected investing are providing much more pessimistic predictions. Just as in the last housing implosion, the unmovable constraints of income vs cost of housing is the starting point. If you expect the market to sustain generally unaffordable prices then you’re not seeing the market objectively. People can’t spend what they don’t have.
Be careful with Zero Hedge, pumps. This was my first contact with purposeful misinformation about 12 years ago. It feels so good because you are the intended audience.
An acquaintance bought a house in Tenafly, razed it and build a 4K sq foot modern. It’s nice but gd’damn is the $$1.6MM outlay and the attendant carry costs a lot of money for what it is… a nice spacious house in Bergen Co.