From CNBC:
Mortgage rates fall sharply to under 7% after inflation eases
Mortgage rates fell sharply Thursday after a government report showed that inflation had cooled in October, prompting a decline in bond yields.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed plunged 60 basis points from 7.22% to 6.62%, according to Mortgage News Daily. That matches the record drop at the start of the Covid 19 pandemic. The rate, however, is still more than double what it was at the start of this year.
…
The Consumer Price Index rose in October at a slower pace than expected. As a result, bond yields dropped sharply, and mortgage rates followed, as they follow loosely the yield on the 10-year Treasury.
So what happens next?
“This is the best argument to date that rates are done rising, but confirmation requires next month’s CPI to tell the same story,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of Mortgage News Daily. “This was always about needing two consecutive reports of this nature combined with acknowledgement from the Fed that the inflation narrative is shifting.”
But Graham said rates are not out of the woods yet. They are also unlikely to move dramatically lower, as there is still plenty of economic uncertainty both in U.S. and global financial markets.
First
Trump on Thursday insisted DeSantis owed his success to him.
‘Ron came to me in desperate shape in 2017 – he was politically dead, losing in a landslide to a very good Agriculture Commissioner, Adam Putnam, who was loaded up with cash and great poll numbers,’ Trump wrote on his platform, Truth Social.
‘Ron had low approval, bad polls, and no money, but he said that if I would Endorse him, he could win.’
In the long-winded statement sent out by his PAC, Trump pointed out that the trio of News Corp media brands are ‘all in for Governor Ron DeSanctimonious’ who he called ‘an average REPUBLICAN Governor with great Public Relations.’
My youngest came down with RSV (tested, positive), feeling better now, but he was looking pretty awful for an afternoon. Got his ass whooped, at one point he fell asleep on the floor in the middle of playing. Couple of doctors visits, he hates the frog nebulizer, but resigns to doing it since he feels better afterwards. Can see how this is putting kids in the hospital, we did end up at the ER late one night. All this on the heels of the whole house being sick two weeks earlier. Not looking forward to this winter.
I had to search on RSV, wasn’t familiar with the term. There’s so many variations of virus, I’m amazed it can be identified. For most, it appears to be just a common cold.
Anyway, glad to read the young one is on the mend. TGIF folks.
Glad your Son is feeling better Grim.
Ditto Grim.
I think we can all agree that the Fed overdid it. So now when does the bottom occur from their damage? That’s the question.
Grim,
Great to hear your son is feeling better, nothing in life is as important as your kids and grandkids.
We had a sick one this week too, thankfully no doctors visit just upset stomach etc. Hope your son is felling better soon. We get spells of sickness in the winter like everyone else from colds, flu (last year) and now RSV as well hopefully this winter won’t be too bad.
Cold is term for lots of different viruses, including coronavirus.
But yeah, respiratory viruses are hitting hard this year. I went to the CVS one night for more Ibuprofen. The kids section was almost completely wiped out, nothing.
The woman in the middle is/was? the CEO of Alameda Research.
h**ps://youtu.be/Qd2enI4RvXU?t=209
If you never even heard of RSV, maybe you should just acknowledge your ignorance and be more mindful of your opinions about viruses or the pandemic. Just saying.
In other news, who knew Slavery was on the ballot in 2022, in some part of the bible belt?! And 20% voted for it. WTF!!!
https://www.newsweek.com/tennessee-slavery-vote-results-leave-internet-aghast-1758104
Donald Trump on Thursday claimed that he meddled in the 2018 election to be governor of Florida, saying that he ordered the counting of ballots be stopped to ensure DeSantis won. As DeSantis’ popularity has grown, Trump has been at pains to point out that he campaigned heavily for DeSantis in 2018, when he was running for governor for the first time. On Thursday, the former president went even further and claimed that he swung the election for DeSantis, whose race against Democrat Andrew Gillum went to a machine recount. ‘I was all in for Ron, and he beat Gillum, but after the Race, when votes were being stolen by the corrupt Election process in Broward County, and Ron was going down ten thousand votes a day, along with now-Senator Rick Scott, I sent in the FBI and the U.S. Attorneys, and the ballot theft immediately ended, just prior to them running out of the votes necessary to win,’ said Trump. ‘I stopped his Election from being stolen…’
My ignorance is noted and acknowledged!
Lol.
The common cold a broad term for a collection of viruses rhinovirus, other coronaviruses etc…. Covid-19, omicron now fits within that category as it is both extremely mild a mutagenic. As I said in 2020, after initial infection of the population, Covid is now just another virus.
RSV was always more likely to hospitalize your child (still rare) than covid, even without prior covid infection/immunization. This was the joke that closing down schools was based off of, because it was never about actual data. Last October, I watched RSV infect 100% of my students like wildfire in a 2 week span, with 100% masking.
“In other news, who knew Slavery was on the ballot in 2022, in some part of the bible belt?! And 20% voted for it. WTF!!!”
Uhm, the actual vote was regarding labor for those incarcerated.
Newsweek’s headline and the associated embedded tweets could not be more misleading. And the Left wonders why most on the center-right distrust MSM…
I’m surprised the ‘no’ vote didn’t garner more than 20%…a criminal’s ‘repayment’ to society should include actual items that benefit society while one is incarcerated. Not just weight rooms. Picking up litter, highway work, recycling centers, whatever, should be fair game for uncompensated labor by criminals.
Don’t like it? Don’t break the law.
“Donald Trump on Thursday claimed…”
Will some Deep State, Hillary-pizzeria connected, compromised DoJ/FBI operative please just take this asshole out for the betterment of humanity…
Like any asset who has served his purpose, shut it down.
Left: Exactly. I saw the post on the slavery item, and just to weary to respond. As for the Bible Belt comment. I have seen inmates over the years in NJ, out on highways picking up trash.
Lib, VNT shares up 22% on my screen from last week after the earnings whoosh down…looks like I was lucky (broke my three day rule) and got it within one hour of the low…wish I took more…
Best advice I can give here re: investing in this environment…Have the list of companies you want to buy for reasons away from price action – valuation, fundamentals, industry leadership, earnings growth, whatever – and when the price hits that level do a quick double-check to make sure your criteria are still valid and pull the trigger if they are.
I waited for VNT to get through the binary earnings event, during which they pulled back estimates, became comfortable that the reaction to that pullback was overdone, and hit it. On any one stock I may be right or wrong, but with a portfolio of these situations which skew to the upside you can assemble positions with very favorable entries.
GL
Leftwing, even if incarcerated, there was no need for “Slavery” to be put on the ballot. There are already rules for how prisoners can and cannot be treated.
The Left is at fault for this report? Wow!
Does not fit narrative. Must suppress.
Arrest Made Over Anti-Semitic Threats
An 18-year-old New Jersey man was arrested and charged Thursday in connection to threats he allegedly made to attack a synagogue and Jewish people, an incident that prompted an FBI warning last week.
Omar Alkattoul, of Sayreville, N.J., was charged with one count of transmitting a threat in interstate and foreign commerce. Prosecutors said Mr. Alkattoul sent a document titled “When Swords Collide” to several people over social media and told one person he wrote the manifesto “in the context of an attack on Jews.”
The FBI’s office in Newark warned residents last week of a threat against an unspecified synagogue in the New Jersey area. Officials said they released the warning on Nov. 3 as a proactive measure. By the next morning, they said the threat had been mitigated.
“Covid-19, omicron now fits within that category as it is both extremely mild a mutagenic. As I said in 2020, after initial infection of the population, Covid is now just another virus.”
BRT-
Covid (mostly Omicron now) is still killing 300+ people a day (that’s 110,000+ per year).
That’s more than double the death rate of a very bad flu year. That doesn’t sound “extremely mild” to me.
“Leftwing, even if incarcerated, there was no need for “Slavery” to be put on the ballot. There are already rules for how prisoners can and cannot be treated. The Left is at fault for this report? Wow!”
Why do the liberals on this board have such difficulty with reading comprehension?
What I stated was that Newsweek’s headline and the series of repeated tweets they chose to embed misrepresented the facts. And that such misrepresentations continue to erode trust in news organizations that choose to do so.
‘Slavery’ as one normally understands it was not on the ballot…uncompensated labor as part of criminal punishment was…
The only reason ‘slavery’ had anything to do with it is that the provision of the State constitution that banned actual slavery had a carve-out that allowed involuntary labor as punishment for a crime…
Get it?
Tennessee BANNED slavery long ago and the recent vote was to remove the provision that ALLOWED uncompensated labor by those incarcerated under that ban.
That is very far from their inaccurate, click-bait headline…
JFC…
If you never even heard of
RSVTN Amendment 3, maybe you should just acknowledge your ignorance and be more mindful of your opinions aboutviruses or the pandemicmatters of state. Just saying.Sorry, I don’t understand – inmates picking up trash on the roads is the same as slavery?
Why do you guys keep digging your own hole just to prove the Right Wing is not nut-loose?
“Sorry, I don’t understand – inmates picking up trash on the roads is the same as slavery?”
Obviously you don’t understand because, yes, that is exactly the point.
It is not the same.
‘Slavery’ was banned by TN in its Constitution long ago.
To ensure that Constitutional provision would not be used to prohibit inmate labor, inmate labor was specifically excluded.
Re-wording of that exclusion – which still exists in the new version btw – is all that was on the ballot. Had nothing to do with ‘slavery’.
So unless you actually believe enslaving a free man = forcing convicted inmates to pick up litter for free….
Man, what did you get on your Reading SATs…..400 was the minimum for just writing your name, right? Did you break 500?
Lightened up a little bit going into the end of the day….closed some META call writes for a good profit, part of a spread, I now have more longs than writes on the calls…overall still quite a bullish combined position (put write spread, call debit spread) so will see gains if she moves up next week, just not as much…if she declines same thing, will see less of a loss and will have the ability to re-write the calls I bought in for a better position…same thing I did with GOOG recently.
Threw on a SPY hedge, spread again, that will cover losses point for point between 390 and 382 out to early Dec….
Wouldn’t have done the hedge chi except I’m back through a level of account balance that is a psychological number I want to maintain so that, combined with the strong gap up and gain today, I’m willing to give up some future gains for conservatism…low cost, high return hedge, returning 3:1 coverage with a low delta.
Going to throw some shorts on and go outside to the water and enjoy the sunshine and beautiful weather.
Good Friday Night All
correction, closed META put writes today, obviously…
OC1, the problem is, your stats on COVID do not resolve dying with COVID as opposed to dying from COVID. This is the fault of our state health agencies and the CDC. No reasonable conclusions can be drawn from the so called covid death data that exists one way or another.
If you talked to any ICU people in NJ last year, they would tell you, yes the ICUs were overwhelmed, from everything except COVID. It wasn’t uncommon for them to state, they have zero covid patients.
FWIW
https://twitter.com/GordonJohnson19/status/1591062535586848768
1/6 What if I told you the CPI surprise yesterday was partially due to a periodic adjustment, that won’t be reflected in the Fed-favored “core PCE” that comes out right ahead of the Dec. Fed meeting? Well, that’s JUST what happend. That is, the CPI for health insurance (which…
2/6… accounts for 0.9% of overall CPI and 1.1% of core CPI), due to a “periodic adjustment”, PLUNGED -4.0% Oct.-to-Sep., or an aggregate +6.1% SWING from Sep’s +2.1% figure. And, this was BY FAR, the largest MoM fall in the BLS data going all the way back to 2005. However,…
Nomad: I saw that , and I went through the CPI report in depth. In short, after review in my view I don’t see how anyone can say inflation is over , or peaked, or on the way down.
They’ve always lied about inflation and their measurements constantly change. No government ever has the incentive to report the true rate of inflation.
BRT-
The “excess deaths” numbers during the pandemic strongly agreed with the reported “covid deaths” numbers.
So either there is some unknown disease suddenly killing more people than normal, or the reported “covid deaths” are pretty accurate.
Meant to mention earlier some live broadcasts.
Billy Strings on now.
Nugs.net
Monthly fee but bunch of lives once you sign up plus existing library
“They’ve always lied about inflation and their measurements constantly change. No government ever has the incentive to report the true rate of inflation.”
This is just nutty. The gov is not lying about inflation.
ok then.
I’m not going to bother to try to convince you otherwise. Go talk to an ICU doctor…ask them how many Covid patients they are seeing.
How many ICU doctors do you know? In how many hospitals? In how many states?
NJ is not seeing a lot of covid deaths right now, but other states are.
I’m not going to get into a circular argument with you. You obviously put your faith in the covid death numbers. I don’t. Like I said, talk to one ICU doctor….just one.
whut what? What happened in NY state? Did they not revise their numbers..Short memories folks!
We’re not having a circular argument. I’m talking about national data reported by thousands of hospitals in all fifty states, and you’re talking about anecdotes from some undefined number of ICU doctors that you’ve “talked to”.
Ha! I was in the City and didn’t have a chance to see all the fumes from LeftWing and FastEddie. While you are cutting and dicing the TN Ammendment 3, the elephant in the room is that at least 20% of Tennesseans wanted some form of slavery. If they flat out said they wanted to bring back slavery(!) you can bet your ass that a significant Tennesseans would vote for it. And LeftWing and FastEddie would continue to cut and dice the semantics of the language.
All I can conclude is that, in the current state of affairs, if you vote Republican you are just as nutso as the orange buffoon.
LIke I said, there was no resolving the people who died w/ covid from the people who died from covid. That’s a problem if you are trying to analyze the data. Moreover, I was talking specifically about Omicron, meaning, any data from Wuhan to Beta to Delta is meaningless in my analysis.
If we can’t agree on that, there’s no point in talking.
It’s Friday night, enjoy your life. I’m gonna watch a documentary with my wife.
“LIke I said, there was no resolving the people who died w/ covid from the people who died from covid.”
Say it as many times as you want- you’re still wrong, until you come up with a good explanation of why “excess deaths” match “reported covid deaths” so closely.
The most parsimonious explanation for that match is that the “reported covid deaths” were accurate.
We don’t have excess death numbers for omicron yet (too soon), but since the “reported covid deaths” were accurate for whuhan and alpha and delta, why would you think they’re not accurate for omicron??
Dude, I thought you were a science teacher? Your logic here is not very scientific.
Watching the Peripheral. Pretty good thus far. Somewhat Westworld but very different story.
I saw that Kelly won AZ and Masto in NV cut lead from 9K to 700 or so tonight with more coming. Bad news for she-clown Kari Lake as D-favored votes for Kelly will also increase her lead.
For Dump, I thought a quick jail visit would be best but watching him lose grasp of political weight along with his delusions of grandeur for 2024, well that is pretty sweet. He was already mentally unraveled but sad deep end is coming. The cult won’t know what to do, like end of Apocalypse Now.
Increase Hobbs lead.
https://calmatters.org/justice/2022/06/california-prisoners-work-involuntary-servitude/
Yes, I am a science teacher, and also, published articles in scientific journals all throughout graduate school related to HIV and understand the standard it takes to make a valid statistical argument. The CDC itself admitted after the fact that a large percentage of the reported deaths, people had multiple comorbidities. One of the reasons I’m not going to continue is because you don’t seem to be able to grasp my actual arguments.
I stated the data was unreliable, stated my reasons for doing so, and concluded, you can’t draw a conclusion for either side of the argument, including my own beliefs (that’s called being objective). You just stated you don’t have the data for omicron excess deaths yet, but have already drawn your conclusion. As I said before, this is a circular argument, because it will always come back to, “the numbers aren’t accurate, no yes they are!”. You think Omicron is dangerous. I don’t.
I spoke to the head of ICU at morristown, the head of ICU at jersey shore, my own physician at Capital health, the doctors at the Urgent Care I had to get my kids tested every 2 weeks to allow them back to school and a nurse for Monmouth. It’s clear you haven’t spoken to any. Because this isn’t even on their radar anymore.
BRT-
is it possible that what is going on in NJ right now re covid is not representative of the rest of the country?
“(I) understand the standard it takes to make a valid statistical argument.”
Well, if you’re basing your conclusions on what a handful of doctors in NJ are telling you, and completely ignoring the stats collected by every public health entity in the country, I don’t think you do!
“I was in the City and didn’t have a chance to see all the fumes from LeftWing and FastEddie. While you are cutting and dicing the TN Ammendment 3, the elephant in the room is that at least 20% of Tennesseans wanted some form of slavery.”
You’re really a dumb fuck, aren’t you?
No one was ‘cutting and dicing’, unlike you I actually read it.
‘Slavery’ was not on the ballot. Unless, again, you believe misleading MSM headlines.
Lefty!! G’ morning ya cantankerous ol’ tool!
“the elephant in the room is that at least 20% of Tennesseans wanted some form of slavery. If they flat out said they wanted to bring back slavery(!) you can bet your ass that a significant Tennesseans would vote for it. ”
Nice strawman you stood up there, Rentlord. It needs a friend though. At least 20 percent of democrats in New Jersey would vote for confiscating all money from every millionaire & distribute the funds on the street corner to all registered Dems if it was on the ballot.
There. See how silly this game is?
See you don’t understand. I’m not gonna reply and watch you continuously construct straw men to take down. Have a good weekend
haha, lol, ex how you doing brother.
had some of mother nature’s finest chocolates watching the concert last night…you sign up at nugs yet?
the concerts are live video…interested in your take on the kid’s playing from a technical perspective…philly show tonight iirc, again free, for the one month signup fee.
No, I think I do understand- basically you think that the reported omicron covid death numbers for the entire country are unreliable.
Fine.
But if you believe that, then the appropriate thing to say is “we really don’t know how severe omicron is because we don’t have good stats”, and not “a few doctors in one state with very low covid cases are not seeing a lot of covid deaths right now, therefore omicron is very mild”.
Yup, tonight.
https://www.nugs.net/live-download-of-billy-strings-the-met-philadelphia-pa-11-12-2022-mp3-flac-or-online-music-streaming/30612-WEBCAST.html
Hell, you may be able to get it by signing up to the free trial.
And even if omicron is less severe than previous strains (which it probably is), and even if we have a lot of community immunity due to vaxing and previous exposure (which we do), omicron can still kill a lot of people because it much more contagious than previous variants, and infects more people.
12:58 “Nugs”….,kick asss. I’ve dabbled.
Just chillin’ like a villain.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-tricky-math-of-herd-immunity-for-covid-19/
FTX..
Ahahahahahah
Lock that freak and his girlfriend up before they skip to Russia with that $400 million.
Too late, they are in Argentina.
https://twitter.com/cathiedwood/status/1591562727943770112?s=46&t=wwRcdJPrxifvioiD5qyIDA
Musk agrees
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591569809086779392?s=46&t=wwRcdJPrxifvioiD5qyIDA
6:07 the mug on that chick.
There is a video interview of her, it’s worth watching.
Gonna be hard to flee from the long arm….Imagine Tom Brady chasing you down, that arm can still put a football fatally between your eyes. Rip off the wrong people, you flee for your life.
re: There is a video interview of her..
Total cringe, yet VCs gave them 1oos of millions….
OC1, BRT is correct it’s fatal BUT not for everyone. Heck we are all still here or is this a dream?
Down goes Masters, Down goes Laxalt..Dems take AZ and NV. Senate control debate over. Who cares about GA now? No one going to spend money on Walker. He was the useless celebrity idiot. Also, bye bye Crazy Kari. Trump extremism is dead. Thank you J6 committee. Thank you America.
Juice-
of course it’s not fatal for everyone-not even close. But when a lot of people get it, even flu-like fatality rates can run up big numbers.
300+ people per day for the past six months.
At this rate, it’s on track to kill about as many people this year as diabetes.
Still seems like a major public health issue to me.
Get your boosters folks, and get your kids boosted. Don’t be a spreader!
Left: Early returns have Harvard dusting everyone. Fuck! Another L. This time against Clarkson
A little too late for anyone involved with FTX, but great article on market geniuses:
From Elon Musk to Sam Bankman-Fried, a bad week for market geniuses
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/12/from-elon-musk-to-sam-bankman-fried-a-bad-week-for-market-geniuses.html
Also, good to see Democrats take control if the senate. If anything, FTX fiasco proves that we need more regulation, not less and Democrats are for it.
Manchin’s still keeping a lazy eye on that GA race.
? Democrats?
Also, how can regulation be placed on something with no nexus in the U.S.?
Why do you think so many are dubious of crypto?
RentL0rd says:
November 12, 2022 at 11:04 pm
Also, good to see Democrats take control if the senate. If anything, FTX fiasco proves that we need more regulation, not less and Democrats are for it