Deep dive on NJ from the Fed

From Liberty Street Economics @ The NY Fed:

A Look at the New York-Northern New Jersey Region’s Pandemic Housing Boom

Since the start of the pandemic, home prices in the U.S. have increased by an astonishing 40 percent. The New York-Northern New Jersey region saw a similar meteoric rise, as home prices shot up by 30 percent or more almost everywhere—even in upstate New York, where economic growth was sluggish well before the pandemic hit. New York City is the exception, where home price growth was less than half that pace. Indeed, home prices actually declined in Manhattan early in the pandemic, though they have rebounded markedly since. Much of the region’s home price boom can be traced to the rise in remote work, which increased the already strong demand for housing at a time when housing inventories were low and declining. Home price increases have largely outpaced income gains through the pandemic boom, resulting in a reduction in housing affordability in the region. However, with mortgage rates rising, it appears that the region’s housing boom is waning, as it is for the nation as a whole, with prices leveling off, though the inventory of available homes remains historically low.

There are a number of reasons home prices increased so dramatically in such a short period of time, both in the nation and the region. First, substantial government support was provided to households early in the pandemic, which contributed to a favorable financial environment. In particular, pandemic relief—including foreclosure and eviction moratoriums—provided support to the housing market during a period of economic contraction when, historically, the housing sector tends to weaken. On top of that, mortgage rates hit historic lows, which provided a boost to housing demand.

In addition, the pandemic fundamentally altered the landscape of housing demand in unexpected ways. Dense urban cores lost some of their luster. Urban amenities that during normal times had been attractive—like bars, restaurants, museums, and public transportation—turned from a blessing to a curse early in the pandemic due to fear of contagion and social distancing. In addition, proximity to urban centers became less important for those who no longer needed to commute to a centrally located job due to the rise in remote work. At the same time, the proliferation of working from home suddenly increased the demand for space, as people looked for larger houses to accommodate spending more time at home. These forces led to a substantial migration of the population toward less dense areas. Regionally, this migration was largely from New York City to its suburbs and beyond, benefitting areas in northern New Jersey, Long Island, the lower and mid-Hudson Valley, and Fairfield County, Connecticut. It also led to increased demand for locations in upstate New York, particularly among remote workers who’d become untethered from their workplaces. Overall, recent research suggests that the increase in housing demand caused by the shift to remote work explains half of the rise in home prices during the pandemic.

All of this occurred during a time of historically low inventory of available homes. Indeed, the homebuilding response to increased demand and higher prices in terms of new construction was muted by worker shortages and supply chain disruptions. Low housing inventory has been particularly severe in upstate New York, which helps explain the significant home price growth experienced there.

This entry was posted in Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, North Jersey Real Estate, NYC. Bookmark the permalink.

58 Responses to Deep dive on NJ from the Fed

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. Libturd says:


  3. leftwing says:

    “March 11, 2022 at 7:44 pm. Just bought back into crypto. Looks like this is the bottom zone. Instead of diversifying…in exchange i can’t sell till they upgrade to ETH 2.0.”


    So on March 11 ETH was 2560. It is now trading at 1280, down 50%.

    IIRC, the upgrade happened on 15 Sep…best price between then and now is 1645 (down 36%).

    So he’s down anywhere from 36-50%.

    Next time he posts a trade you should reach out to him and just take the other side directly…a sure winner for you and no commissions!

    Bet the breadwinner of his household really regrets that she didn’t give him a larger allowance to invest.

  4. leftwing says:

    Looking at homes in a popular warmer clime…established year round community with a large dose of second homes for a seasonal population surge.

    Amazing how disrupted the market is…despite an extraordinary amount of inventory listings are all over the place…price reductions in the last four weeks or so pretty common, many not insignificant. Do not presume many are forced sales. Not interested in a condo but while doing market diligence I see for all practical purposes identical units in a ‘liquid’ building priced 25% or better apart…

    I wouldn’t consider stocks with those spreads…why am I looking at houses in that situation? [not a rhetorical question]

  5. libturd says:

    I’ve been pointing out that Crypto was worthless since day one. Sure, a few people got lucky and made some money playing the earlier momentum. But, so many people have gotten really hurt by it.

    The market is for investing, not gambling. Gamblers always lose in the long run. Investors win.

  6. Chicago says:

    Crypto will rebound, but I would lack confidence that it would be anywhere near this level. Look how low the VIX is. There are two potential conclusions. One I previously mentioned; the guardrails have really done a decent job so far relative to leverage and contagion. The second is more ominous; we are in the middle of a fucking mirage. What are implications? In short, don’t trust what you see.

    In that vein, private equity has done little to fully mark their books. I think we are enjoying a nice sucker’s rally. But that is just my guess. Who the fuck knows?

  7. Libturd says:

    I’m heavily onboard the sucker’s rally premise.

    I think the recession is going to be deep, painful, but short. Short, mainly because the foundation of the market will be on incredibly strong footings.

    First, the FED will have some bullets in their guns offering some downside protection (for a change). The lower debt on the government books should make our treasuries more attractive to foreign investors. Add in that our incredibly strong dollar has nowhere to go but down, making it easier for domestic interests to sell internationally plus companies will be running much more leaner, making it easier to beat year over year numbers. Look for cash rich companies (no debt), that are nimble and can buy up the bloody remains of their overborrowing competitors.

    In the meantime, I plan to watch the market closely this week to take out some more of my long positions to turn them into dry powder for this winter’s recession.

  8. Libturd says:


    I spent the last 5 days in Florida. So much to discuss. The drivers are the worst and the tolls have gotten kind of crazy, not to mention the express lanes which you have no choice but to take. By far, they are the worst drivers in the country. Housing and taxes might be cheaper, but it’s not reflected in food costs. Both the supermarket and restaurants were as expensive if not more pricey than around here. That live free thing may be going to far down there. It should not include such things as driving the wrong way down major roads or letting your 5 year-old autistic kid swim in the Atlantic unsupervised. I mean, the parents were in the hotel 3 properties away.

    And the damn humidity. It was sticky crotch weather in mid-November still.

  9. 3b says:

    Fed s Waller says market ha overreacted to softer inflation number, and that the Fed will continue to raise rates, and has a long way to go to before they have reached their goal.

  10. Hold my beer says:

    Saw Rina Sawayama over the weekend. She had a fantastic voice and puts on a great show.

  11. leftwing says:

    “Look how low the VIX is.”

    Notice how sticky it was last week especially around 22.xx as the markets were rallying? And up pretty strongly today relative to SPY open…

    “I think we are enjoying a nice sucker’s rally. But that is just my guess. Who the fuck knows?”

    Not I, just a simple man here…from that perch though at best we are in a market transitioning to a bull (unlikely IMO) and at worst experiencing another bear market rally. Seems the guardrails on the SPX recently are 3600-4200, broadly. Means we are 5% away from the upper bound and 12% from the lower. Risk downside, partly why I lightened up on Friday…

    Also, no time to post charts, but I have something I drew quite a while back I’ll look at every so often for a longer term view when I’m done with fundamentals…pull up the SPY weekly chart and draw two lines…one on the bottom starting at 8/23/10 and connecting to 4/6/20 (on the lows). One on the top 7/23/07 connecting to 2/17/20 (on the highs). Two nicely parallel. For four weeks in a row in Jun-Jul she respected the top line, touching but not breaking through after violating it. Same for the last three weeks. She breaks again and holds the lower line says 285 is the lower bound, lower if she overshoots (plus or minus slightly depending on time required to get there).

    Conforms nicely to my ranges…no bull until demonstrably through 4200, needs to hold that level after retests, with the FFR clearly on a path to exceeding inflation…So, LT buys for me start in the 350-360 range, with most likely downside to 320 (conforms with most of market and I’m strong buyer there), my exposure on any buys starts in 300 range, and my downside, wet the bed scenario where I back up truck with some realized losses and load all the stock I can is 280.


  12. Chicago says:

    Left: do you have a forward average S&P earnings number? I am hearing shop after shop taking it down, but I haven’t seen a reference to the E. Only hearing nominal price levels. Where are we sitting at 4K? 17x? WTF is that? Upside? To 18x+? How does that possibly make any sense?

    Non-sequitur: I am hearing from Port Newark logistics guys about cancellations. It is always interesting to hear this, but sometimes it’s difficult to convert information into something usable.

  13. leftwing says:

    [TLDR: response became way too long…using my best estimate of 2023 downside earnings of 180-200 and applying historical trailing multiples of 14-16x due to limitations of forward earnings and multiples in periods of economic and market dislocation I get to 2800-3200 as ‘floors’ ]

    chi, no forward multiples for me per se….I started pulling all that apart for individual names early this year. What I found was that around major market and economic moves forward p/e became ‘n/a’ often…basically, with the huge change in earnings (sometimes negative) coupled with multiple two standard deviation moves in share price the data just didn’t give me any usable numbers…also, I found the forward earnings during the event were a moving target, being refined often more than once over a very short time frame so I couldn’t even be sure while evaluating the data that I was working with a denominator that would be reflective of what I would see on the ground real time…

    Instead, and this is still a work in process, I’m looking at trailing p/e and a multi-year stack…gives me the benefit of hard, real time numbers that are directly comparable to prior periods, trailing twelve is always trailing twelve and doesn’t change, right? Essentially I intend to look through the chaotic period of forecast earnings and share price volatility to the ‘period of stabilization’ following economic/market dislocations, which I’m comfortable with as most recessions fit that window…

    I recognize the drawbacks of TTM to forward share price expectations but went there as the combined fluctuations in each of price and earnings separately in previous cycles produced ridiculous results…for example, at some point during the worst earnings decline share prices become sticky and you end up with forward p/e on individual names that can be 30, 40, or 50x or more for companies that normally trade in the teens…not much actionable I can do with that information….

    This framework got me into GOOG, META, VNT, TREX and others I’ve suggested here to watchlist…As an aside, there’s probably a really interesting academic study buried in here somewhere as I noticed on individual names there is a definite bottom beyond which a relatively consistent trendline of price relative to forward earnings breaks down and p/e explodes to an irrational number…stated differently, if for some reason GOOG (or META even) show forward estimates of 1.00 the stocks will not go to, say, 18.00 (18x)….they will stop at some floor well above that ($50?) producing for me that ‘n/a’ forward multiple of 50x…for someone with more time, computing power, and access to free data it would be interesting to see if a good backstudy could find a relatively consistent breakpoint at which that occurs (in which case obviously one has found a formula for determining a bottom…).

    So, on the S&P in aggregate? Really back of the envelope calculations for me…this year (2022) we’ll have two years of earnings over 200 so long as 4Q earnings don’t implode (on the order of down 33% which is outside any reasonable range for a Q to Q change). Let’s say we hit 208, equivalent to last year. Let’s haircut 2023 to 180 (14% down, within historicals)…Market is definitely not expecting that, would cause a pretty major selloff.

    So where to go from there? I look at historical trailing on p/e, I do a bottom up with risk-free rate and ERP, discount CAPE, etc. and given a not unreasonable rate assumption get to a normalized trailing multiple for the market of 14-16x.

    I get my 2800 floor and 3200 most probable downside from here…15 times 180 is 2700 in the case we have a harder recession…softer slowdown and earnings hold 200 for a third year and 14x gets me 2800….30% discount on current CAPE to get me to historical average from the 1sd where I am now takes this market to 2730….for the ‘most probable’ downside I’m assuming if we can hold 200 earnings for a third year top of range at 16x is warranted…

    I would note for others that you can’t time this analysis…by the time the market knows 180 earnings are firm then 2024 forward earnings will be as well and we’ll be already exited if not out of any slowdown so forward earnings will be popping and market will have already moved…It is valuable for me though on the basis I described…ie, to get my downside targets forward multiples have too many drawbacks so to ‘frame’ my guardrails I’ll normalize earnings with a trailing historical multiple as downside….

  14. Ex says:

    12:58 aNy qUeStIonS ?!?

  15. Very Stable Genius says:

    Lara Trump warned Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis against challenging her father-in-law, former President Donald Trump, in the 2024 GOP presidential primary.
    She told Sky News Australia that DeSantis is ‘smart enough’ to know not to fracture the Republican Party.
    ‘I can tell you those primaries get very messy and very raw,’ she said during an appearance on the network Sunday

  16. Grim says:

    Amazon lays off tens of thousands of people every year post holidays…

    Amazon with a 10k cut is simply in a whole other territory than Meta cutting 10k.

  17. Ex says:

    Alabama congressman and once-zealous Trump supporter, Mo Brooks, has a remarkable new stance on the political future of his former hero. “It would be a bad mistake for the Republicans to have Donald Trump as their nominee in 2024,” he said.

  18. leftwing says:

    Fuck the Trumps.

    So…fun with others’ lives….who wants to make odds on the following SBF outcomes 12 months from now?

    1. On the lam, whereabouts unknown
    2. Alive, location known, not incarcerated
    3. Incarcerated, alive
    4. Dead, during incarceration
    5. Dead, before incarceration

    The FTX that imploded was the one for international residents…can you imagine the profiles of some of the people who he screwed over? JFC.

  19. Grim says:

    We need elections to be decided within meaningful timelines. This dragging on is just becoming nonsensical. Are we going backwards?

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    Are we going backwards?

    You mean we didn’t save democracy?

  21. Ex says:

    Indictment watch …. tick…tick…tick

    Prediction. Trump heads to Russia.

  22. joyce says:

    According to CNN, some districts have under 40% of the vote counted. Crazy.

  23. OC1 says:

    “I wouldn’t consider stocks with those spreads…why am I looking at houses in that situation? [not a rhetorical question]”

    Is affordability the issue? Or is it that you just don’t like the idea of paying more for a house now than you might be able to get it for in the future?

    If it’s the latter, then you need to factor in the enjoyment you’re missing out on by waiting for prices to come down.

    If buying the house now is going to make your life much better than that hypotheitical money you might save by waiting then you should go for it.

  24. Libturd says:

    “According to CNN, some districts have under 40% of the vote counted. Crazy.”

    Those are all the MAGA counties. They’ve decided that school is a mandate and they are no longer sending their kids to them. Unfortunately, this has resulted in them not being able to tally the ballots because thems is bigly numbers.

  25. Ex says:

    Most of those little Trump towns are places no one actually wants to be.

  26. chicagofinance says:

    Anecdote: client considering selling place……. holdup? Has $879,000 at 2.5%…… that is an extra $3,000-$4,000 PER MONTH in just interest to obtain a similar costing house elsewhere…….

  27. Juice Box says:

    No charges against Rudy Giuliani, SNDY closes the case on the Ukraine “lobbying”.

    Oh BTW for anyone wondering if this was political or not the FBI seems to think so.

    Giuliani tells a funny story about the 6AM raid on his home when seven FBI agents showed up with a warrant for his electronics. He tried to hand them the hard drives that were clones of Hunter Biden’s he had in his possession and the FBI agents refused to take them. Lol!..

    He said in an interview. “Hunter Biden’s hard drives fall within the scope of the subpoena. The subpoena required them to take all electronics, but they decided to leave that behind and they also were completely content to rely on my word that these were Hunter Biden’s hard drives. I mean, they could have been Donald Trump’s, they could have been Vladimir Putin’s. They could have been anybody’s.”

    “But they relied on me, the man who had to be raided in the morning because I’m going to destroy the evidence” Lol!!!

  28. crushednjmillenial says:

    One would figure that by now, six days after last Tuesday’s election, that 99.9% of the ballots postmarked by Tuesday, Nov. 8 have traveled through the mail and arrived.

    I would hope almost all the races get called very soon.

    I would also hope that even those on the hard left feel that this long count is a disgrace and an embarrassment.

  29. Fast Eddie says:

    Biden’s Student Debt Relief Plan Is Blocked Indefinitely by Court

    (Bloomberg) — The US government can’t discharge any student loans under President Joe Biden’s massive debt forgiveness plan because a federal appeals court blocked the program indefinitely.

    The republicans should toss any notion of duty, responsibility and accountability out the window and take a page from the democrats playbook. As I said, the dems would pimp their grandmothers if it meant holding onto power. They’re masters of the bribe for votes. But, who cares anymore? As long as my S.S. checks are deposited every month, let them sell whoever they want. Free stuff for all… come and get it!!

  30. Bruiser says:

    Grim @ 1:50

    Amazon jettisoning 10,000 hourly order pickers post-Christmas =/= Amazon sh*tcanning 10,000 corporate workers in a true mass layoff.

  31. Bruiser says:

    Fast Eddie @ 2:10

    Democracy? No! We saved Democratcy!

  32. Ex says:

    Eddie. It might be time for your side to launch an offensive.
    Trump will be right behind you.

  33. Hughesrep says:

    Send in the Gravy Seals.

  34. Grim says:

    Someone’s been notably absent – hope he didn’t get crucified as an ftx account holder.

  35. Libturd says:

    Can we invite his wife to a gtg? I could only imagine what she has to put up with. She must be a saint. Saint Pepo we’ll call her.

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    Sam Bankman-Fried gave $50,000,000 to the DNC to get O’Biden elected and then funded the mid-terms… 2nd in donations to Soros. So, the DNC has to give the money back, right? And they used the Ukraine to cleanse the pipeline? And now the dems want to regulate these exchanges? lol. The level of deviousness by the left is epic!

  37. BRT says:

    Juice Box says:
    May 13, 2022 at 8:30 am
    Lol – These guys are just too much… Unregulated offshore perhaps illegal in the USA fake crypto futures market where you can ALSO bet on whether Trump will be president again buys a stake in Robinhood.

    Robinhood Markets (HOOD) – Robinhood soared 22.4% in premarket trading after Sam Bankman-Fried – who founded cryptocurrency exchange FTX – revealed a 7.6% stake in a regulatory filing. The purchase makes him the third largest shareholder in the trading platform company.

    Epic call by Juice….

    Can’t wait to see the reversal. If ark stocks get on a roll, it could be worse than the GME squeeze. So many of her stocks will pop so f/ing hard. Going to be epic to watch when it comes.

    “Robinhood Markets (HOOD) – Robinhood soared 22.4% in premarket trading after Sam Bankman-Fried – who founded cryptocurrency exchange FTX – revealed a 7.6% stake in a regulatory filing. The purchase makes him the third largest shareholder in the trading platform company.”

    Same day contrarian indicator by Pumpkin. This was literally within a day or two of when I was buying into the market to try to play bounces on the sh1ttiest companies out there. A lot of it was a big payoff. I think we are going to find that these guys were taking all that liquidity they stole and juking up various small cap tech sh1tcos.

  38. Ex says:

    9:42 let me know when we steal from a veterans charity k?

  39. Ex says:

    Donald J. Trump Pays Court-Ordered $2 Million For Illegally Using Trump Foundation Funds

    Trump Ordered to Pay Eight Separate Charities $250,000 Each

    Remaining $1.8 Million in Trump Foundation Bank Account Disbursed Among Charities

    NEW YORK – New York Attorney General Letitia James today released the following statement after Donald J. Trump was forced to pay more than $2 million in court-ordered damages to eight different charities for illegally misusing charitable funds at the Trump Foundation for political purposes:

    “Not only has the Trump Foundation shut down for its misconduct, but the president has been forced to pay $2 million for misusing charitable funds for his own political gain. Charities are not a means to an end, which is why these damages speak to the president’s abuse of power and represent a victory for not-for-profits that follow the law. Funds have finally gone where they deserve — to eight credible charities. My office will continue to fight for accountability because no one is above the law — not a businessman, not a candidate for office, and not even the president of the United States.”

  40. Chicago says:

    ……and another adrenaline shot.

  41. Chicago says:

    Left: Blasted through 4K

  42. Juice Box says:

    re: FTX and “These guys are just too much…”

    Too bad now the nutters are out there spinning some weird kind of political money funnel from Ukraine tied to some Pedo conspiracy stories. It really ruins a good old fashioned fraud. I really want how much did Tom and his soon to be ex lose? Did they count their FTX holdings as a 100 + million dollar asset in their divorce? It has to be huge, huge loss for them too.

  43. Libturd says:

    .3% is still about 5% inflation. There’s no doubt the FED will continue raising rates for a while longer. I think the next thing to look out for is the housing crash. And of course, how will the market perform with interest rates nearly 5% higher than it’s been for a decade for the most part. I never did sell off any more, so I’m comfortable in my 50/50 position

  44. leftwing says:

    “client considering selling place……. holdup? Has $879,000 at 2.5%…… that is an extra $3,000-$4,000 PER MONTH in just interest to obtain a similar costing house elsewhere…….”

    And with SALT presumably pre-tax equals after tax interest expenditure in this case? What are people in this situation going to do? Golden handcuffs, I suppose.

    OC1, thanks for the thoughts. I often lose sight of the ‘soft’ factors. This would be a ‘second’ home so no rush…I guess over time I’ve been on the receiving and giving end of purchases at extremes and entry value does matter…IDK, I’m fundamentally cheap at heart and with no urgency or even hard parameters (don’t need to be in exactly a certain community) guess I’m at best looking for a bargain and at worst don’t want to be buying in the equivalent of 2007….

    Maybe our hardest shopper on the board who seems to be a new convert to ‘prices only go up’ would weigh in? What say you, Gary? Was it worth the wait and hard shopping? Or screw it, market is the market, hit the ask if you’re a buyer?

    I do hate paying more than I need to, pathologically so…I would actually run my gas down way below E knowing I would be on 22 the next day and gas was 30 cents a gallon cheaper than locally…save $6.00 at the risk of running dry with the ensuing hassle and cost…not the most rational behavior…so yeah, I’m definitely battling that part of my DNA…

  45. Libturd says:

    I’m fairly frugal and really weigh timing when purchasing large ticket items. There is just too much money of my hard earned money involved and this is where you really get the best bang for your buck.

    I’m not going to do the math, but timing your lock on your mortgage’s interest rate can save you tens of thousands over time. Way more than what you’ll save driving to lower-priced gas stations. Playing the interest rate lock game is pretty easy too as it moves in a clear cycle. Yet 90% of the population doesn’t even pay attention. But offer them a $1.50 hotdog and soda at Costco, and they would drive twenty miles out of the way to get it. Of course, you could make that same combo at home for about 50 cents.

    The worst part of overpaying for the house too, is that you are buying it on credit. Which means, you will be overpaying for thirty years even more so, due to the compounding of interest owed.

    The moral of the story here is that it really pays a lot to wait for the home that is priced to meet your expectations of value. It took us three years. It saved us 175K in purchase price or 244K (yes that’s what 175K will cost in interest alone at 7% over 30 years). In total, that’s $419,000 saved at today’s interest rates. That’s a whole lotta hotdogs and cokes.

  46. leftwing says:

    chi, yup. Just to be clear as we focus so much on the downside I’m not locked into it. I am bearish, generally, as the most recent hikes have not yet worked their way through the system although we are getting closer (eg, notable layoffs of dead weight in otherwise very healthy corporates). While I’m still substantially cash I do have since the summer the heaviest equity positions in a long time.

    In any case if we push the upper boundary of this recent range we should, as usual, consolidate there…at that time I’ll let the market tell me what to do with the then available data. Not sure we’ll get there, these past few days are forward looking of course but there was just a huge amount of volatility and uncertainty taken out of the market by three major events resolving last week (elections, Fed, CPI). Don’t underestimate those flows on this performance. I think lots of people were caught offsides. Like whoever came in and sold the hell out of the market in the final hour yesterday on big volume lol.

    Lib, I think the next chance for a real breakout is when the market can see with certainty the FFR crossing the CPI…over the summer I posted the timing related just to base effect. Subsequent CPI extended that timeframe…need to recalculate the levels and timing for current conditions (did the last one on an HP12C, not spreadsheet, grrr). Firming up of that timeline to a tradable event for market participants is not that far away.

  47. leftwing says:

    Lib, thanks on the house timing thoughts.

  48. Libturd says:

    Agreed. I think it really comes down to the impact of the coming recession and the depth of it. Yes, layoffs are finally occurring and yes, even at healthy companies. Everyone and their mother knows the recession is coming. The size of it, is friggin impossible to determine since so much shit has been manipulated that ruins the norm.
    I really wish the government would just stay out of everything financial except the basic SEC regulations and anti-monopoly watchdogging (do they even still do this?)

  49. leftwing says:

    “Someone’s been notably absent – hope he didn’t get crucified as an ftx account holder.”

    Wifey probably got the most recent brokerage statement and broke all his knuckles so he couldn’t make any more ‘investments’.

    You know them outside this board, is he OK, he was lending that stuff out…ugh. He’s totally fucking insufferable but from a human perspective I don’t wish any ill will on anyone and hope he’s alright.

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:


    I only have a small position with ETH. I was not involved at all in that ftx fiasco.

    Crypto will live on, specifically ETH. It’s the technology that matters and this technology is not going away. It’s only getting stronger and more efficient….doesn’t even need to mined anymore.

    As for FTX, human nature is a bitch. That has nothing to do with blockchain technology and everything to do with human nature. If you think the stock market doesn’t have the same chit happening right now, you are gullible. Fraud is and will always be rampant. It’s why we have to pay the price of regulation….because greedy jerkoffs always try to cheat.

  51. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I am by nature also cheap. I hate it. Find myself doing stupid chit like this too. Trying to find that balance in life. You don’t want to spend like a drunken sailor, but you also don’t want to be stressing over spending. Have to find that balance.

    Too many people end up dying with money they will never spend while sacrificing precious happiness by holding back to save a dollar. I used to be so cheap, and I am glad I see the light. Have to enjoy life too, can’t take the money with you. Odds are, you will die with a lot of extra money that you will never get to spend….isn’t that some chit….sacrificing your whole life to save money you will never spend. It’s truly a sickness.

    “I do hate paying more than I need to, pathologically so…I would actually run my gas down way below E knowing I would be on 22 the next day and gas was 30 cents a gallon cheaper than locally…save $6.00 at the risk of running dry with the ensuing hassle and cost…not the most rational behavior…so yeah, I’m definitely battling that part of my DNA…”

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This market is tough….glad I am not a trader. I would be losing my stomach with these swings if on the wrong side of it.

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:


    That’s the luck of life. Most people can’t time buying a house, some have to buy at a given time. So much of investing is pure timing….aka luck. Just being in position at the right time and place to execute….these are your biggest winners in investing (in any type of investment). Skill then comes in to keep it and grow it slowly. Simple as that.

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Like you point out, most people don’t understand compounding. Patience and understanding of this combined will easily increase your odds of getting “lucky.”

  55. Nomad says:

    Lib & Left,

    Do you look at growth in credit card balances when evaluating equities. With higher interest rates, the average consumer likely is tapped out at a lower CC balance and their money buys far less. The actal question is if you look at this as a ratio of something to determine when consumer spending approaches a major drop.

    CNBC or Bloomberg I think mentioned a big uptick in balances. WMT did well today and is the bellweather of consumer health.

  56. leftwing says:

    I’ll look at any data if it’s credible…haven’t heard of that ratio, one likely exists. Post if you find…

    Anecdotally I’m leaning toward a weak holiday season. WMT results IIRC were skewed by people moving down, CEO said something on the order that $100k+ earners are an increasing percentage of shoppers; same thing I heard on CNBC today, believe company was Planet Fitness, distinct weakness below $100k; grim sees logistics slowdown; FDX fires aggressively ahead of busy season….

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