From the NYT:
U.S. Labor Market Expected to Slow
The Labor Department’s latest reading on nationwide employment is due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on Friday. Forecasters expect the report to show that payrolls grew by about 200,000 in December, down from an average of 272,000 over the previous three months.
Even with the prospect of a deceleration in job creation, the resilience of the labor market has been striking. Employers’ desire to hire remained strong going into December, the Labor Department announced this week, with only a slight decline in job openings in November and a rising share of workers voluntarily quitting their jobs.
The number of people filing initial claims for unemployment insurance reached a three-month low at the end of December, as employers remained broadly reluctant to let go of staff members despite high-profile layoff announcements from large tech firms.
That mismatch between supply and demand, particularly in the service industries where compensation drives prices, has continued to heat up wage growth faster than the Federal Reserve would like to see. The Fed’s program of interest-rate increases is meant to cool the labor market, and with it, the climb in wages.
first
second
Several of you have said the speaker situation is a healthy process. To me it feels like someone beating their head against the wall. Like the old saying, insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. This isn’t how intelligent people behave.
All sorts of nonsense will get peddled in the name of damage control. We have 13 original colonies, so why is going for the 13th vote a problem?
Hell, Trump loves any electoral policy that allows for unlimited do-overs until his team wins. Can we get that for the presidential election too?
I do wish they’d drop the nonsensical rhetoric about this being about doing the ‘will of the people’.
If we had an effective multi-party system, at this point there would be two Republican parties, if not three. Probably two Democratic parties as well.
Leadership. McCarthy has already bargained away the power of the office. Whoever becomes speaker will now be ineffective because McCarthy made the office a cuckold.
Also need to point out that this is 1/6 and of the 21 refusing to vote for McCarthy, 19 have claimed that the 2020 election was stolen. This who is driving the supposedly healthy debate.
In the end the people with the most raging case of TDS will be Republicans.
I have been driving low profile tires since 1999 (that was my first car…99 civic si in the blue). It was lowered and had 19 inch rims on it. In 2005, I bought my first bmw. Low profile tires too. I have never had a problem with potholes. Do you people not know how to drive and avoid it? Driving a sports car for god’s sake. First off, you don’t go fast on roads you don’t know. Second, keep your eye on the road so you can avoid it if there is a new pothole. 24 years…and never blew out a tire or rim.
Probably two Democratic parties as well.
Never. There is one democrat party that marches in a restrained and authoritative manner. The democrats are an analogous cluster of groundless and fatuous worshippers. To deviate from the “message” is to be cancelled and humiliated.
The labor market is weird right now. That’s for sure.
Hell is coming if the Fed is able to break this labor market. It’s a labor market dealing with supply side dynamics never seen before in our economy. Population growth has never been this low before. The availability of workers has never been this low before. We are in big trouble if they break this labor market. It means significantly smaller economy if they do. You can’t have lower unemployment in this environment unless you make the economy smaller and require less workers.
Go long Florida! Read this thread. Lmao. Idiots.
“Over 100% home owners insurance increase from 2022-23!
$2002 yearly is now $4192 !
Anyone else dealing with this ?”
https://twitter.com/liathetrader/status/1611046578747211802?s=46&t=tOsY37pSAiEUtRElukOlpA
It’s a double edge sword. The more Florida grows, the more it costs to insure. The more houses built, and the more expensive it becomes, the less insurance wants to be responsible for the costs when it gets smashed by a hurricane.
I warned people about this. I said this is why blue states became so expensive….it’s becuase they are successful economies. Successful economies drive up the price of everything over time. A place is cheap because it has no viable local economy. It’s not rocket science. Politics doesn’t make a location expensive: success does.
And you cry about your property taxes in nj which have been stagnant?
“Yes, me. Rates are soaring in Miami, and the HOA is going up 25% yoy”
Mexico out of control. Crazy chit..
Florida..lol
“Just had insurance replace a 100k roof, 3rd time in 12 years. Will my rates be going up? $4192 is cheap, I pay more than that for 1000sf investment properties that are worth maybe $500k.”
“We never had to deal with this much chaos when George Santos was Speaker.”
Jamie Raskin
So, when is Santos going to resign?
Maybe they should vote on it?
Well, I figure as long as the republican majority needs his vote to pass McCarthy, he’s sitting pretty.
Heck, he is shoe in to lead the senate communications committee.
OR, rather than focusing on the messengers how about focusing on the message. Never answered my question from yesterday. Do you think eliminating omnibus legislation is a good or bad idea?
And who’s the cuckold? The 200+ mindless minions falling in line behind anything Pelosi wants in exchange for crumbs that fall off the table or a group of people taking a stand getting brutally, publicly excoriated knowing the are likely committing career suicide?
Neutralish jobs. Left. Do I have this right? 1 1/2 hikes priced for Feb? Terminalbrate 505?
I am for eliminating omnibus legislation but unfortunately it is sometimes the only means of overcoming obstruction.
Who is a cuckold? McCarthy or whoever lands as speaker under the rules he has negotiated.
Please don’t try to make these 21 holdouts into heros.
Wage growth weakening as inflation remains elevated. Who’s making the $1,000 car payment on Karen’s Lexus LX 600?
How exactly do you eliminate the possibility on an omnibus bill? I doubt anyone can even agree on what an objective definition of one even is, other than a bill containing two or more bills. What constitutes a discrete set of new provisions in a bill?
Are 2 disparate provisions ok? Is 10 ok? Is 20 ok? What level of relatedness or unrelatedness is acceptable? I’d love seeing a prohibition on any provisions not directly related to the specific business, purpose, spirit of a bill. Would strike fear into the hearts of every lobbyist.
In the spirit of either consensus or efficiency, would this now prohibit two lawmakers from combining their individual bills together into a single bill to garner the necessary support to pass both?
“Any political leader who planned, abetted, praised or excused the violent attack on our Congress and Capitol of January 6, 2021, and that insurrection against our sacred democracy should never be trusted on the issue of law and order.”
@BeschlossDC
Debate rule grim as I understand it. All the recent $1T+ bills were done by leadership then given to individual congressman as fait accompli (no time to even read the bill before the vote let alone have input). If that’s going to be the case let’s just elect seven people nationally – Pres, VP, Speaker, Senate Majority Leader, plus a handful of committee heads. Let the other 400+ just go home. That’s the practical effect now.
I believe McCarthy already agreed anyway. Don’t have the particulars.
“I am for eliminating omnibus legislation but unfortunately it is sometimes the only means of overcoming obstruction.”
please re-read your statement if you need in order to see its internal inconsistency and foolishness….
Isn’t ‘obstruction’ actually debate and your ‘sacred democracy’?
So we can have ‘debate’ as long it is approved by those in power, but when those in power can’t accomplish what they want to debate is then ‘obstructionism’ and needs to be squelched?
JFC man….
“Please don’t try to make these 21 holdouts into heros.”
I’m not, just responding to you calling them cuckolds….
My point is I know who has the set of balls and who doesn’t…I’m in a battle, of any sort? I’ll take these guys as my attorney, accountant, banker, or having my back…not any one of the 200+ liberal pussies waiting for a pat on the head from Queen Nancy.
BRT, from yesterday…what did I say….75% down is a GAIN with him, every time!!!
Hey, where do you find CW’s cost basis in her holdings? Scanned the website, not obvious to me.
Separately though, looking for it did give me a good chuckle…she’s required to post prominently that ‘past performance is not indicative of future results’ where ever she gives performance stats…as I browse line after line of down 65% or greater I’m looking at that boldfaced language going ‘well I fucking hope not!’.
Alright, back to the coalmines. Have a good day all.
Santos will resign when Pocahontas, booker, Schiff etc. resign, wouldn’t count on it.
As I’ve says before the GOP is a party of closeted homosexuals.
“…The staffer, in his late thirties, recalled that while he drove Schlapp back to the hotel, Schlapp put his hand on his leg, then reached over and “fondled” his crotch at length while he was frozen in shock, calling it “scarring” and “humiliating.” When they arrived at the hotel, the staffer said Schlapp invited him to his room. The staffer said he declined and left “as quickly as I could.”
He informed the campaign about the incident the next morning…”
Liberals love being in their version of a daycare program supported by a superb and splendid state! It removes them from the arduous task of taking responsibility for their own welfare as the kingdom supplies their mommy milk for free. Don’t think, just conform and obey and your surrogate parents will pillow your safe space. Be good!!
They’re watching. Shhhh!!!
“My point is I know who has the set of balls and who doesn’t…I’m in a battle, of any sort?”
You should work on separating brains from balls. I will take the smartest as my attorney, accountant, banker or someone leading a battle. This is exactly the R problem. Braggarts, disputants and self grandizers are seen as people with b^lls but they lack brains. It does not take b*lls to hide with 20 other people. What McCain did on health^care vote took b*lls and you hate him for it. Let’s just drop the charade. Nancy had lots of extreme liberals, chomping at her feet but they don’t air dirty laundry as publicity stunts like Boebert and Gaetz. Voting for Trump as Speaker is now leadership with b*lls? What a joke.
Can this guy get any worse?
Jim Bourg @jimbourg
Newly elected freshman Rep. George Santos (R-NY) makes gestures with his hands as he casts his vote for House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy in the 10th round of voting for Speaker of the House on the 3rd day of Congress. Reuters Photo by Evelyn Hockstein
@evelynpix
https://twitter.com/jimbourg/status/1611150918447206400
Nancy has more “balls” than of these flyover State pansies.
The GOP is filled with D students and insurrectionists.
Prove me wrong .
I guess in tds world that’s how it’s viewed. I would like to see light shed on a few things that are not pat off the swamp agenda.
Open borders, criminal fauci, weaponization of government, Ukraine war funding. None are high priorities to the insiders. Time to draw a line and separate those who will fight for the country from those who fight for the status quo.
Makes sense to me, no wonder Nancy and Paul have been together so long.
As I’ve says before the GOP is a party of closeted homosexuals.
True. Just ask Paul Pelosi.
Love em or hate em they now have some concrete results, for now you see they are a real threat to Republican power here, they can flip the vote for Speaker to the Democrats by voting either for Jeffries or abstaining.
Here are the changes to the Legislative Rules that I believe they have secured so far.
1st compromise – 72 hours before a vote can be taken on any new bill, meaning the bill will be released to all members not just committee chairs and party leaders, so no more dropping 1.7 trillion in spending in 4,000 pages of legislation in the middle of the night for vote the next day. There is probably an emergency exclusion to this.
2nd compromise – (which will fail) is a term limit vote this year. Hey this means more diversity and inclusion, down with the white patriarchy and all!!! Last time a vote was held was nearly 30 years ago in 1994. It almost passed the house! Limit Senate to two six-year terms and members of the House to six two-year terms. Vote was 227–204 but needed 290 votes a 2/3rd to pass the House. I don’t think it would have passed the Senate back then and maybe Clinton would have signed it.
3rd compromise – Only one congress person can call for a “motion to vacate” to replace speaker. I don’t like this one, it should be perhaps 5 or 1o members at least.
4th compromise – Standalone votes on each 12 annual appropriations bills, no more Omnibus at the 11th hour before end of year recess please…It does not mean there won’t be one..
5th compromise – Don’t punish by taking away committee seats.. Seems fair … BTW the older members with the longest amount of time serving hate this one. They want members seniority to take precedence… Some members feel the right to superior honor….lol….This is not the Army or a monarchy…F em….like leftwing says…
There may be more, there are lots of house rules.. Remember they did allow let women into the “men’s” cloak rooms until the 1970s…
Fab – re: Santos “Can this guy get any worse?”
Yeah He is horrible a farce on Democracy! Why did the Democrats in Queens and Long Island elect him anyway?
Serious question. Where should she have put her money in high growth so that she didn’t lose? Of course, you guys will ignore this.
Remember, high risk should be no more than 10% of your net worth and that’s pushing it. It’s the hot sauce to your portfolio. Money you don’t need or care about, and can risk to take your portfolio to the next level without hurting it much if you lose. If you are not using hot sauce, you are doing it wrong.
leftwing says:
January 6, 2023 at 9:25 am
BRT, from yesterday…what did I say….75% down is a GAIN with him, every time!!!
Nancy has more “balls” than of these flyover State pansies.
And she pegs Paul with authority!! Just like any of those dem cucks who even think about deviating from the narrative!
The money i lost on ark was nothing. Best part, it helped me save my 401k position. It helped me see that the market was turning before it turned. While everyone at the time thought this was a cathie wood chit company problem, I understood this was the canary in the coal mine. So basically, my ark loss of 8k was like buying insurance. Make the best out of every situation. Turn a small loss into a huge win. That’s how your protect your pie.
You libs really need to do some self-reflection, and at some point ask yourselves why you hold the same world view as the imbecilic dingbats on The View, and whether or not it’s healthy that your opinion of the two political parties is the same as the vast majority of teenage girls.
As it pertains to the topic of the day, you guys are saying it’s a bad thing for the conservative members of the House to use the leverage that they have as a result of the midterm election results, to try to negotiate changes that they feel are important, with the less conservative members of their own party — because it’s somehow preventing the House from being ‘effective’ — while nonsensically arguing that the past two Dem-led congresses have been effective when their ‘accomplishments’ have literally entailed spending the past two years rubber-stamping Joe’s reckless spending, and the previous two engaged in investigating the Russia Collusion hoax. You guys are nuts!
It’s been a couple of days, not weeks or months. 99% of the time, the less the government does the better. I forget who said it recently but Congress is on vacation more than anyone; this is not that big of a deal.
Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings, punish its Members for disorderly Behavior, and, with the Concurrence of two thirds, expel a member.
The speaker and majority leaders (and committee leaders) do not have a predestined amount of power; I think they all have too much power. For example, in the Senate, it’s virtually impossible for the chamber to even vote on a bill if the leader doesn’t want it.
And for those who are too old to remember way way way back to the last couple of years, I remember a senator or two holding out preventing the majority party from passing it’s desired bill.
Neither party is your friend. You are crazy if you mentally, financially or emotionally give anything resembling support to either one. Nuts n v t s nuts.
Face it we’re screwed. Just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
“Any political leader who planned, abetted, praised or excused the violent attack on our Congress and Capitol of January 6, 2021, and that insurrection against our sacred democracy should never be trusted on the issue of law and order.”
Why should anyone trust law and order?
Ex says:
January 6, 2023 at 10:02 am
Nancy has more “balls” than of these flyover State pansies.
The GOP is filled with D students and insurrectionists.
Prove me wrong .
The same Nancy that has made 140 million dollars with inside information?? Yet refused to change saying it is her God given right to be able to make $$$. The government actually prosecutes insider trading ( Martha Stewart ring a bell) , Nancy goes free, and is considered the best Democrat. Awful low bar.
There are so many things broken with our government, but there is nothing more damaging than the stranglehold on progress that the two-party system creates.
I’ve said this a million times before. We must hold our politicians responsible when they behave immorally. We don’t, because we constantly downplay their deplorable actions due to our fear of the party we support (mainly due to their positions on social issues) losing power. So we just keep giving them a pass. Like a child without a curfew, they will eventual stay out until sunrise.
And then there are the politicians themselves and their self-enrichment. We allow this too through our continued support of campaign finance blood money and the acceptance of the lobbyist model. Every single decision made is based on not what is best for our country, but how contributors and lobbyists can best be paid back for the favor they have purchased.
They are all equally as bad. We always have to choose the lesser of two evils. For a change, we need an option that is not evil. The two-party system will not allow that.
You can spend the rest of your life arguing that a rapist is not as bad as a murderer. But it doesn’t really matter if you don’t punish both of them.
Now as quickly as possible, get back to attributing everything you don’t like to Biden and Trump when there is absolutely no relationship between the two.
Jim,
So forcing woman to have rape babies is okay. But only insider trading is bad.
But I agree with you. She should be in jail with the rest of them.
“Why did the Democrats in Queens and Long Island elect him anyway?”
The GOP would never run a sham candidate to dupe the other side.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/18/politics/frank-artiles-arrested-sham-candidate-invs/index.html
A Goldilocks Labor Market?
Goldilocks Enters the Room
What could be better than another month of robust job growth and a 53-year low in unemployment—plus waning inflation pressure? The 223,000 gain in nonfarm jobs in December, though the lowest in two years, was double the sustainable pace of an economy at full employment. Yet average hourly earnings rose just 0.3% from a month earlier, the lowest since February. Non-managerial pay edged up just 0.2%, the lowest since January 2021. Revisions to prior data show wage growth slowing rather than accelerating. Annual earnings growth has fallen to 4.6% in December from 5.2% in August. In the last three months, it was just 4.1% annualized, and 4.2% for non-managerial employees. Though still above the 3.5% to 4% level compatible with the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target, that’s headed in the right direction. —Greg Ip
Key Themes
Still a Tight Labor Market
Slower wage growth makes the Federal Reserve’s task of taming inflation easier, but barely. Employers may be shelling out fewer big, one-off raises compared to when pandemic-related shortages were far more dire. A more sustained softening in wage pressures seems unlikely because the job market remains exceptionally tight. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, tying a 53-year low, and vacancies still far outnumber the unemployed. The underemployment rate fell to 6.5%, the lowest on record. The unemployment rate dropped because employment rose by 717,000, more than the 439,000 increase in the labor force.
Take both figures with a grain of salt: they come from the survey of households which is far more volatile than the much larger survey of employer payrolls. The less volatile participation rate (the share of working-age people working or looking for work) only edged up to 62.3%, near the top of its 2022 range, and for 25 to 54 year olds, it remains in the middle of its 2022 range. There’s no sign labor supply is surging back. —Greg Ip
Strong Jobs Report Doesn’t Resolve Fed Debate on Next Rate Rise
Friday’s employment report does little to clarify how much the Fed will raise interest rates at its next policy meeting. Officials raised the central bank’s benchmark short-term rate aggressively last year and they are now keeping their options open for their Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting. The latest jobs numbers offered little evidence that the Fed’s rapid rate rises last year have significantly slowed hiring. But revisions to figures on wage growth showed recent gains weren’t as brisk as previously thought and instead indicated they continued slowing through the end of the year. —Nick Timiraos
Who’s Hiring, Who’s Firing
While the overall economy is still adding jobs at a solid pace, some sectors that saw big gains early are now fading. Others are still working to catch up to prepandemic levels.
Retailers and warehouses piled on workers as Americans splurged on goods during the early phase of the pandemic, but hiring has slowed or reversed as the buying frenzy subsided. Temporary help employment peaked in July. Temp jobs can be a bellwether for broader hiring intentions. Companies often add a contract worker before committing to a permanent hire, and temp workers are often the first to get fired. (Alternate theory: The labor market is so tight that temp hires are moving to permanent positions.)
What Economists Are Saying
“The December employment report painted a picture of a still healthy labor market with some easing of wage pressures. However, both job growth and annual earnings growth remain above the pace the Fed sees as consistent with slowing inflation, leaving the Fed on track to continue raising interest rates.” —Nancy Vanden Houten, Oxford Economics
“We still think the labor market will weaken more markedly this year as the economy slips into recession.” —Andrew Hunter, Capital Economics
“2022 was a year of tumult in many ways but it was also a year of rapid job gains, low unemployment, and strong wage hikes. The hope is the strength of the U.S. labor market can provide a solid foundation for the U.S. economy in the year ahead.” —Nick Bunker, Indeed Hiring Lab
“Overall, the data are signaling ongoing positive momentum in job growth and moderating wages.” —Rubeela Farooqi, High Frequency Economics
“With this report, it is clear the labor marketing is slowing, but not at a rapid pace.” —Aaron Terrazas, Glassdoor
“Today’s report will not lead the Fed to quickly change course with respect to the path of interest rates, and we expect a 25-basis-point hike at the next meeting.” —Mike Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association
“The December jobs report brought further signs that the labor market is beginning to soften, but remains incredibly strong.” —Sarah House, Wells Fargo
“The U.S. labor market remains historically tight despite the modest deceleration in the pace of hiring and overall wage increases.” —Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US
“Overall, job gains continue to slow, hours are normalizing and it appears nominal wage growth may be normalizing too.” —Jonathan Pingle, UBS
“A better than expected jobs report, capping off a year of excellent job growth, suggests the U.S. was not in a recession in late 2022. Other data are less upbeat.” —Bill Adams, Comerica Bank
It’s not about forcing women to have rape babies, it’s defending the unborn. Joe they are contrived is no fault of their own.
Or, as biden so eloquently put it, “ The World Is Not a Patch in Our Jeans”.
Get Ready for the Richcession
Well-off Americans could get hurt more than usual in the next downturn
Economic downturns are usually horrible for poor people, bad for the middle class and an inconvenience for the rich. But if the economy enters a recession in 2023, or even if it manages to narrowly evade one, it might be the well-heeled who take a bigger hit than usual.
Call it the richcession.
https://apple.news/Ansup41KjQzS_lzC9SWxiOg
One interesting point arising from the current McCarthy speaker battle . . .
There are essentially four real political parties in the US. Populist Right (freedom caucus and MAGA), Establishment Right (McConnell and Romney), Establishment Left (Biden, Schumer and Pelosi), and Socialist Left (Sanders, the Squad).
In Pelosi’s last Speaker vote in 2021 and a few other times over the last two years, the Establishment Left was able to whip the Socialist Left into line. The Socialist Left was either unable or unwilling to derail the Establishment Left, even though voices on the Socialist Left wanted the elected members of the Socialist Left to do so.
It turns out the Populist Right is willing to derail the Establishment Right to a greater extent than the corresponding players on the Left.
One more note – I wonder if the RNC works ahead of the next round of redistricting after the 2030 census to gerrymander districts differently. To be clear, the R’s might want to dilute how republican some districts are out there to lessen the likelihood of Populist Left candidates winning primaries and elections. Or, will maybe the RNC just better absorbs Populist Right positions to reduce this kind of impasse in the future.
Libturd says:
January 6, 2023 at 11:42 am
Jim,
So forcing woman to have rape babies is okay. But only insider trading is bad.
I have never said anything against abortion EVER EVER EVER. I would be a complete hypocrite if I did. End of story.
Insider trading to the tune of 140 million dollars is OK??? Politicians are way above the law, and they flout it.
it’s defending the unborn. A rape baby needs no defending. What world are you living in? I’m sure it will be sperm and ova next. Then what? Forced intercourse? It’s for the rape baby. I’m defending the rape baby. Just wow.
Hannity interviewed Lauren Boebert on his show in the last few days. In the interview, Hannity was dismissive and sneering in the way that CNN usually interviews people on the right.
Hannity’s point was, to paraphrase, shouldn’t the 20 votes give way to the 200. Due to the Establishment Right trying to discredit the 20 dissenters, I really hope the list of demands just got longer. I hope 10 or so stick together and say we want “xyz, and, finally, all of that plus NOT Kevin.”
Force the establihsment right to get some establihsment left votes and show their Swampy hand.
Ok. I come to this website to see what is being discussed midday on a Friday. I am a little miffed at the rally.
First thing I see is multiple postings with “rape baby”.
NJ Rape Baby Report
“Republicans created a cult of personality around Trump. And now that Trump is off the main stage, the cult no longer has a personality. It’s just a cult with lots of zealotry but no actual tenets or beliefs. And even if McCarthy does eventually prevail, the chaos gripping the House GOP is just a symptom of a larger problem.
The Republican Party isn’t really a governing party anymore. It’s an incubator for right-wing celebrities.
Republicans didn’t even bother writing a new convention platform in 2020, relying on its reality television host’s demented charisma. And when that didn’t work, and Joe Biden decisively beat Trump, the majority of House Republicans tried overturning the election.”
I am changing my handle to Chicago Rape Baby
What are you doing?
Libturd says:
January 6, 2023 at 12:16 pm
The left believes in eugenics. Sanger, planned parenthood etc. Who is worthy to be born and who is not. I get it. I’m not trying to persuade anyone. Just correcting your mischaracterization.
Btw, read some of the stories of people who were conceived through rape. Your “rape babies” and see if they agree with you that they were unworthy to live.
“What are you doing?”
Oh come on Joyce.
Banana Joe, let me have some of your sperm. We can solve the labor shortage and perhaps find the scientist with a cure for cancer in there. We can mix it with one of Joyce’s eggs. Heck, sprinkle some Chicago Rape Baby DNA on it. He’s pretty smart. Where does it end?
“What McCain did on health^care vote took b*lls and you hate him for it. Let’s just drop the charade.”
LOL, that’s your comeback? What McCain did, and why I specifically dislike him, is he threw whatever very little principle he had to the side to cast a vote that went against his own stated beliefs just to piss off someone he didn’t like (DJT). Among the weaker and least principled people out there, notwithstanding his Vietnam experience.
“Nancy has more “balls” than of these flyover State pansies…Prove me wrong .”
No argument here, Nancy has balls of steel…my point is the about the cowards in her Party who won’t challenge that…
I can see why you voted for Joe. I’m sure you thought his latest brain fart was brilliant.
Again, I didn’t vote for Joe. None of the Above got my vote as usual.
crushed,
While it may appear that way, the Socialist lefts like Bernie have actual agenda and platform. The MAGA extremists are a bunch of ego-maniacal rag tags, each with their own set of conspiracies, trying to out-do each other for attention. Dolts like Small try to label them the conservatives now…JFC . There is problem. They label everyone who did not kiss the Orange tuchus as RINO and threw them over the side. You can’t keep it up and hold a party together. He got destroyed in 2020 and 2022 – an absolute loser of a person yet some brain-less Rs using him name and rhetoric to entertain the low IQ R masses and profit. Blading their brand of crazy. It is no party.
Hahaha…so, I’ve opened positions long in both MSFT and TSLA by writing puts….used some of the proceeds to throw on a nearer term, low cost, high payout SPY hedge…I;m at a portfolio value I want to keep hence the hedge, MSFT starts the strategy I used with both META and GOOG, get a foothold 20-30% down if she declines re-write and start to leg into an actual leveraged long…TSLA, had to grab, vol is near one year high and I’m encouraged it stopped declining despite the negative Chinese news this morning…this one is on a tight leash, 20% down (which it has done more than once in a day) would net me a 100% loss at which point I need to re-evaluate (depends on where we are relative to earnings announcement)…play here is vol comes in and theta does its magic and I’m out later this week/early next at 50% of maxprofit….party on!
Also feeling comfortable on the above as I cleaned out a bunch of stuff that outperformed the last few days…closed a bunch of Feb 290 SPY puts I’ve had for a while that were near maxprofit, some TGT puts I wrote last week that were around 70% of maxprofit, etc.
So basically de-risked equities in total but I am left with a disproportionate risk to the main FANG+T names, also leading to the SPY hedge.
GL all….
Libturd,
I’m fully in favor of abortions.
Christmastime abortions are even better.
youtube.com/watch?v=kXPrptYy5UU
35 years ago it seemed like only a minority of Republicans made a big deal about abortion. Now sadly it’s part of the cookie cutter platform that nearly all elected Republicans vote for. Yet according to Pew Research about 38% of the population that identify as Republican or leaning Republican say that they think abortion should be legal in all or most cases. 47% of Republicans under the age of 30 think it should be legal in most cases. Yet the Republican Party platform says that the life “of the unborn child shall not be infringed” and I think most elected officials stick to some version of that.
“Republicans created a cult of personality around Trump. And now that Trump is off the main stage, the cult no longer has a personality.”
Study history…I would restate that Trump advantaged himself of the work of others (as usual) and that opened the door to his candidacy…there’s a long history of grassroots on the Right, most notable recent manifestation was the ‘Contract with America’ in 1994 and the Tea Party movement that bubbled up from a CNBC host in 2009….Establishment Republicans (or former grassrooters who became too comfortable with the perks of governing) ultimately dominated, and the bubbling of the grassroots Right sprang up in 2016 when heavyweights like Bush, etc were unceremoniously tossed aside in the Presidential primary….this shit isn’t going away, and I truly hope with Nancy out and ideally the populist Left re-invigored by this group of 20 antics we see greater activism by elected officials on the ‘far’ Left and Right…people on both sides of the spectrum are fed up with the Establishment and there are precious few ways for anyone outside that Establishment but aligned with the grassroots (in either Party) to express their views with results.
Or left, his “big beautiful health plan, cheaper and better than ACA Day 1” never existed nor was it ever going to exist and Dumpy’s ‘hurt Obama’ vote offered nothing of significance to American people. The ‘Do nothing, symbolic vote health care party’..what moral principle was at stake for McCain? Nothing but kissing the ring. It was so transparent.
Worse!! I liked McCain a lot better before he was “muted” by the GOP and they somehow allowed Para Salin to run with him. What a trainwreck.
Click on link for chart.
*US labor productivity (output per hour) is deep negative still👇🏻
I wrote about this early-2022 ~ if labor productivity continues negative, wages must fall and layoffs rise
Why? Because neg. productivity indicates to much saturation as labor is becoming inefficient
https://twitter.com/radicaladem/status/1611416071969595392?s=46&t=WVf6psW2P9mJdLOgEsV64g
Just got hit with a massive PSE&G bill for Dec, so I compared usage to last year. For Dec 22, gas usage was slightly higher than Dec 21, and electric usage was slightly lower — bill was almost $150 higher! Thanks Joe.
2:05 what a dunce.
The fact is that the Republicans blocking Kevin McCarthy’s bid for speaker are not crazy when they suggest that good-faith debate within the same political party can be beneficial for a democratic polity. Except that their political performance art is really about a refusal to accept a loss – the very core of the Trumpist playbook. This is not what democracy looks like; this is what acting out a belief in minority rule looks like.
SmallGovConservative says:
January 6, 2023 at 2:05 pm
Just got hit with a massive PSE&G bill for Dec, so I compared usage to last year. For Dec 22, gas usage was slightly higher than Dec 21, and electric usage was slightly lower — bill was almost $150 higher! Thanks Joe.
Worst inflation in 40 years , food costs through the roof. Inflation will get much worse . Middle class will continue to get hit with bad government, it ain’t pretty. Wait until all the new IRS agents go after ALL the little guys. What the hell has Joe done to help us??? NADA
Ex says:
January 6, 2023 at 2:07 pm
2:05 what a dunce.
I have to agree with you on that EX, Joe is a dunce. Way past his time. Self made millionaire but all he ever did was be a politician. How does that happen????
Derrrrrr
Americans forget that there’s been more job growth – 10 million jobs – during Biden’s first 20 months in office than during any previous president’s first 20 months.)
For any American who is thinking of voting Republican out of anger about inflation, here’s some advice: look before you leap. Republicans won’t do anything more than Biden has done to slow inflation. Indeed, they’ll probably do less. Despite the flood of GOP ads attacking Biden over inflation, Republicans haven’t put forward any proposals about how they would slow inflation. They talk of their plan to make Trump’s tax cuts permanent for the rich and big corporations, but that won’t do anything to reduce inflation. (By the way, inflation has been higher in many other countries – in Britain, it’s 8.8%, and in Germany, it’s 10.0% – so it’s ridiculous to suggest inflation is all Joe Biden’s fault.)
There’s another reason voters should look before they leap. Republican lawmakers actually support several policies that will increase inflation. Republicans have vowed to repeal the Biden-backed law that lets Medicare negotiate lower prescription drug prices, a law that will reduce inflation for nearly 63 million Americans on Medicare. Congressional Republicans were so eager to help big pharma instead of inflation-battered Americans that they blocked Biden from setting a $35-a-month price cap on insulin. That means higher prices – and inflation – for Americans with diabetes. Republicans are also intent on repealing Obamacare, which would push up healthcare prices for many Americans.
“Worse!! I liked McCain a lot better before he was “muted” by the GOP and they somehow allowed Para Salin to run with him. What a trainwreck.”
Uhm, Palin was McCain’s choice, not the Party’s…you know that whole ‘maverick’ thing…which is just a polite way to say someone who was privileged with a father who was among the most powerful military commanders on Earth and had a free pass into the Naval Academy but instead decided to be a drunken, useless little prick…what a waste of a life and opportunity that nearly anyone here would have killed for…
“The fact is that the Republicans blocking Kevin McCarthy’s bid for speaker are not crazy when they suggest that good-faith debate within the same political party can be beneficial for a democratic polity. Except that their political performance art is really about a refusal to accept a loss…”
Sometimes you just need to draw a line…can share a similar story from my divorce…we settled, and opposing counsel comes back with, not ironically, 21 ‘clean-up’ items that are entirely new. “Nope” to every single one. He to me, ‘you are not negotiating in good faith’; me ‘go fuck yourself’. My counsel to me, ‘you can’t do this, you’re not negotiating in good faith’; me ‘in good faith I’m not negotiating, go tell the judge we have an unsettled case and don’t raise this issue again with me until you do.’ Me, final tally, 21-0.
People who believe they can run over you, particularly when they mistake your historic goodwill and acquiescence for weakness, often only just understand a big raised middle finger.
“Derrrrrr….Americans forget that there’s been more job growth – 10 million jobs – during Biden’s first 20 months in office than during any previous president’s…”
Uh, derp?
Forget to mention he was starting from a radically lower base due to the shutdown of most businesses during the pandemic?
C’mon dude, you’re better than that….
Left,
I like your trades. Glad you heard me on Amazon. Not sure you agree, but I think MSFT and AMZN are two completely different animals even if they compete in the cloud. I think there’s a place for both Azure and AWS. There are differences.
Always love the contradiction of right on military service. Clearly President Bonespurs was the hero to be backed here and McCain was the daddy-funded coward. And Kerry had actual pictures of being in Vietnam but let’s swiftboat him for the Texas Air guard prez protected by wealthy family.
I too just received what is the highest ever PSEG bill in recent memory.
“Always love the contradiction of right on military service.”
My views are expressly limited to McCain.
I’ve known too many ‘McCains’….didn’t like them way back when, like them less now.
By background most of here seemed to have worked really hard for what we have, did not start on third, and overcame a lot to get what we have.
This douchebag was born on third and ended up there.
Any one of us would have a left nut to start with the opportunity he had.
would have *given* a left nut
Lib, let’s see where SPY settles when it closes but I may be at my ATH again today. Thank you Mark Zuck, lol. Best part, I’m pretty well loaded on some SPY put spreads that will help offset any giveback next week….
This is why tesla is not just a car company. They do all this in house.
Cars
I afeela like Sony and Honda’s Afeela car—yes, that’s what it’s called—represents everything we need to know about the melding of tech and car companies. A prototype of the car, which is expected to be available for pre-order in 2025, is equipped with 45 cameras and sensors to enable automated driving and other safety features. There’s a massive screen that runs across the car’s dashboard and an exterior screen above the car’s front bumper to display info to people outside the vehicle.
Boomer, think it was September when they basically doubled the rates. Only noticeable when you use a lot of gas. Through me off so went back and looked ate the last few months.
Yup, a bunch of people looking at their energy bills with eyes wide open saying to themselves wtf?!
Hope this doesn’t cause my renters to fall into financial trouble.
My last gas bill was $175. We keep the heat at 68-70 and have a 10 year old house with great insulation. Wonder how much my neighbors who keep the heat at 78 so they can wear shorts year round are paying.
Hold,
Nailed it. Some people waste massive amounts of resources. Have some respect and stop driving the price up so high on everyone else by consuming so much more than you need. 78 is ridiculous.
I have solar. My electric bill is $10 a month.
Gas maybe $75. 2600 sq ft home. So there’s that.
Ex,
This is the way. And people cry about renewable energy.
Anything over 3850 ….spxu. Why not? See if we get a rally.
A little info for the traders..
Work it till it doesn’t work anymore.
“Market just so binary the past few months. You can basically wait for data, if it’s bad go long because people think the Fed will pause or slow hikes. If the data is good (more dependent on what data it is), just get in short. Key is to get out quickly then wait for more data.”
Can get on this idea…
“Prices Paid pointing to roughly 3% inflation by year-end as well.
Real growth down, inflation down = nominal growth down. And hard.
The bond market is staging a massive rally, and the equity market is following suit.
Why?
Muscle memory, recency bias.
For the last 10 years, this was the trick:
Weaker PMIs = the Fed must ease = I’ll front-load them and buy stocks.
While this might last for a bit, investors are in for a rude awakening – this reflexive behavior might prove to be costly.
What about the labor market?
PMIs lead, the labor market is instead a coincident to slightly lagging indicator.
It obviously paints a ”better” picture, but what this does is basically giving cover to Powell to validate his ”higher for longer” mantra.
And…
…this is well understood by markets: Fed Funds are expected to be 150 bps above (!) prevailing inflation in the next 12-18 months.
Powell has a lot of credibility with markets now, and he won’t wanna waste that.
The real issue is how to navigate short-term market reactions (muscle memory, reflexive behavior) against the medium-term trends.”
I think this a valuable lesson for newbies. At least i think it’s important. There is no middle ground with these high risk high growth stocks….they are either undervalued or overvalued. No in between like a home depot or coke. Play accordingly. Understand the cycle and the volatility that comes with it and make some money.
If you are young, and you are not DCA into tesla and meta starting now…doing it wrong.
If you are not buying some bitcoin when no one wants it, doing it wrong. Don’t go crazy, but def buy 10k worth of bitcoin if you have the means. What has happened every cycle over the last 10 years? Do not go against history until it doesn’t work. It’s a trend.
How much did you buy? Nothing? got it
You know inflation is bad when Jim Cramer and Cardi B are complaining about it.
Frigging head of romaine at Shop Rite was $4.99 today…I can do better at Whole Foods..
I’m just giving sound advice.
Myself, I am taking on more risk. I am going to try and time a good price. Might bite me in the ass, as it is difficult to beat DCA. But I believe in myself.
You read the WSJ article I shared. It was an apple link. Richsession….this recession is going to hurt rich people more than the poor which is an anomaly.
Juice Box says:
January 6, 2023 at 6:55 pm
You know inflation is bad when Jim Cramer and Cardi B are complaining about it.
Frigging head of romaine at Shop Rite was $4.99 today…I can do better at Whole Foods..
BREAKING!
A 6-year-old student is in custody and his female teacher is in hospital with life-threatening injuries following a shooting in the classroom at Richneck Elementary School in Newport News, Virginia earlier today.
An armed society is where 6 yr olds shoot their teachers
re: Gas Bill.. This is what happens when your military detonates a couple of gas pipelines of EU countrym (Germany) that laughed when our former President and current President said they would not be allowed to rely on Russian Gas.
It is your price of freedom..we are exporting it so your cousins in the EU don’t freeze their asses off..
“U.S. LNG exporters boosted shipments to Europe by more than 137% in the first 11 months of 2022 from the same period in 2021.”
Home natural prices have increased but be happy your don’t live NY and other states BTW much much higher prices.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/NG_PRI_RESCOM_A_EPG0_PRS_DMCF_M.htm
Looks like McCarthy has got the votes? Gridlock broken.
Grim says:
January 6, 2023 at 7:34 pm
Looks like McCarthy has got the votes? Gridlock broken.
Great! Now they can all go home for a long weekend.
BTW speaking of Germany, they are finally agreeing to shipping better vehicles to Ukraine. 100 Marder APCs, it took them about 1o months now to commit to it. I suspect Biden put some pressure, perhaps no more gas to keep their manufacturing plants open? All in Ukraine is going to get about 700 modern armored APCs between US, Germany, France and others. They can probably cram in 10 troops in each, as they have smaller kits.
As I had mentioned the Ukrainians were driving mostly civilian vehicles to the front every day or old Russian equipment. Now with the US Bradley, the German Marders etc they at least won’t get killed by snipers, mortars and drones or even mines on their way to “work” at the front.
I say it again EU can do more, it’s not like they don’t have the gear. France is giving them a bunch of old 1980s light armored tank killers that are probably still better than the Russian equipment.
Red line is Western Tanks…We shall see if we cross it…I have a feeling we will…
The Great Pumpkin says:
January 6, 2023 at 6:55 pm
I’m just giving sound advice.
Here is more sound advice from the great Pumpkin:
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 20, 2022 at 1:07 pm
Inflation had to peak already…all deflationary now
We have learned over the years Pumpkin is just a troll making stupid statements.
Maybe we have a new Speaker of Da House…..
I heard McCarthy agreed to subpoena Hunter Biden’s Penis…
BTW on natural gas…Last year I went out and bought a bunch of cheap unfaced insulation and added another layer in spots that were thin in my two separate attics and filled some gaps including around the high hat fixtures, they have an IC rating (safe for insulation) and I run all LED lights so not too hot to set stuff on fire. I also insulated the attic ladder/door with some staple on thin R-22 insulation. My second attic has a door, and it was not insulated either so more thin insulation on the attic side.
I run Eco Bee (hat tip to Phoenix) got them free from JCP&L and have programmed it to turn heat down when we are not home and also at night. We turn it down to 63 overnight. Nobody complains as it takes hours for it to drop anyway, heat kicks on when waking up etc.. I for one hate hot air when sleeping anyway and almost always run a fan….
Jim,
You mean when I called the real estate run 8 years out while people like you mocked me on here? Or was it when BRT called me out and asked for a call? I said buy all the apple and amazon you could buy when everyone was bashing it and the price was deep in the red. I give sound advice. You didn’t. You answer a call like BRT did to me…put me on the spot. I nailed it. You make a real estate call 8 years out that seems like a pipe dream at the time of the call. You call wage inflation in 2013 to happen by end of decade at a time it almost seemed impossible…so much so I got called “The Great Pumpkin” as a mockery of my calls.
Let’s hear it, jimbo….what’s your call right now hot shot? I’m calling you out like BRT called me out. Let’s go,
Majority of people are against bitcoin right now, just like previous cycles where its death was called over and over. I ask an honest question. What makes this cycle any different? Why is it not going to rise when they release liquidity and enter a bull market? Give me one good reason. Why is this time different?
Yes, cathie, you always see the big picture
“Tesla’s goal has been to drive prices down and increase #EV adoption. At Investor Day (3/1), Elon could announce a step-function drop in pricing, much like he did for the Model 3, to ~$25,000 for the next gen EV. Gas-powered vehicles boomed at that price point.”
“Tesla’s margins, superior drivetrain efficiency and low battery costs should make it one of the best positioned to weather any cyclical slowdown for autos. As it has done in the past, it can be the first to lower prices, which puts pressure on other automakers.”
“Removing autonomous driving & any form of ride-hail, which we believe will drive >60% of Tesla’s value over the next 5 years, our 2026 price target would become roughly $500/share (post split) based on EVs alone, more than a 4X increase from current price.”
This is the way, cathie, and they mock you.
“Moreover, in our view, Tesla remains 3-4+ years ahead of the competition in battery costs and is in a world of its own in chip design and data assets for autonomous mobility: think Apple chip design for smart phones vis a vis Nokia, Motorola, Ericsson, and Blackberry. New world.”
The Great Pumpkin says:
January 6, 2023 at 9:38 pm
Jim,
You mean when I called the real estate run 8 years out while people like you mocked me on here? Or was it when BRT called me out and asked for a call? I said buy all the apple and amazon you could buy when everyone was bashing it and the price was deep in the red. I give sound advice.
Your advice is absolutely useless, and pathetic. Still pushing Cathie, who continues to sink like a rock. Let us know did you buy bitcoin like you keep pushing. How many shares ???? You are so full of BS. I made no predictions anywhere, but sold over a million dollars of real estate in the last two years, how about you??? I NEVER said anything about your one lucky prediction .