From the Times Union:
Hudson Valley housing prices exploded in 2020. What happens now?
In the late summer of 2019, when the word “pandemic” was most likely to call up images of the Spanish flu or the Black Death, the average house in Greene County sold for $185,000, according to figures from Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress.
Three years later, in the late summer of 2022, the average home sold for $330,000 — an increase of 78 percent.
But as interest rates rise, will this trajectory be sustainable? Will it plateau? Or will there be a dreaded crash?
Gary DiMauro, the executive vice president at Four Seasons Sotheby’s, which sells high-end homes throughout upstate New York, called price increases in the Hudson Valley’s housing market during the pandemic “unheard of in U.S. history.”
The tale is by now well-known: The mad rush to escape the petri dish of New York City resulted in bidding wars for properties, often between cash buyers, that jacked up housing prices as demand lapped supply. Hudson and Kingston’s metropolitan areas (which included all of Columbia and Ulster counties, respectfully) had the biggest jump in net in-migration in the entire country, according to a New York Times analysis.
Where was Mrs. Garrett? Peekskill? Poughkeepsie? Always confuse the two, but close enough.
Yup Ms. Garrett towards the end of that show she opened a shop called Edna’s Edibles…..A bit before it’s time to be selling ganja brownies but hey she needed the dough.
Murphy wants to phase out antiquated liquor license controls in the state and make it easier to obtain one. You can now buy weed legally and smoke/ingest until you put yourself in a coma so why not more access to alcohol? Listen, we’re already more than half way to Pottersville so why not go full monty and legalize prostitution? That’s not an “if” it’s a “when”. Think of the tax dollars generated to pad democrats “go fund me” coffers while giving the riff raff what they want! Let the lefty-controlled media continue to fan the flames of rage against the traditionalists while thingamabobs get peddled in and out the back door of corruption.
Kingston real estate prices are starting to drop from what I am told by friends up there
CPI number comes as forecast. I get the impression the market priced a softish report and no favors. The market might go limp today because they loaded up to blast off. Didn’t happen.
Yup Ms. Garrett towards the end of that show she opened a shop called Edna’s Edibles
Man, that is some killer IP, I wonder who owns those trademarks. You’d clean up in the GenX market with that branding.
I wonder what would happen if NJ had similar liquor/beer/wine regulations as the state of Florida. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JLDzjSy5DxY
Fast Eddie says:
January 12, 2023 at 8:39 am
Murphy wants to phase out antiquated liquor license controls in the state and make it easier to obtain one.
Liquor licenses in NJ need to be reformed. They are a government protected monopoly, and license holders own markets.
Many bars in Hoboken do not own their licenses, they are forced to enter into partnerships with license holders, who extract huge fees. Licenseholders in Montclair attempting to create a similar market. You need to lease the space from the license holder, lease the license from the license holder, give x% of your business to the license holder.
Your business could completely fail, and the license holder walks away with a bag of money.
For all of NJ’s hype around the restaurant scene, the fact is, it’s bullshit. I’ve seen more interesting restaurant ecosystems in Memphis, or otherwise, where new chefs can open their restaurants, and get liquor licenses on a fee-basis (they are not assets to be invested and traded). Those markets have vibrant and growing restaurant scenes.
NJ’s liquor license lobby is an incredibly powerful force, with incredible influence over local and state policymakers, and regulators. They do not care for any competition at all, and in many NJ downtowns, it shows.
NJ’s liquor licensing model is antiquated and needs to go. Liquor licenses should not be transferrable, and should not have value as an asset. Should they be controlled? Absolutely. But please, don’t tell me my local grocery store shouldn’t be allowed to sell liquor. Or that the new chef who scraped together everything he had could be told that allowing customers to BYOB is now illegal (which the NJ liquor license lobby attempted to pass, by the way)..
Today was the last CPI print that will be calculated by the current methodology. February’s CPI print will be the first report based on a *new methodology*
CPI was formerly based on two years of consumption data. Now, CPI will be based on a single year of data.
Ok, so use broader time frame when rate of inflation is rising, shorter time frame when it’s rate is decreasing…hooray for metrics and standards.
Case in point, when NJ liquor license holders made it illegal for restaurants to advertise BYOB. Subsequently struck down as unconstitutional, but NJ’s lobbyists and regulators could care less about being “constitutional”, it’s all about money and influence.
https://norrismclaughlin.com/blogs/llb/category/let-everyone-know-they-can-bring-their-own-bottle-new-jersey-ban-on-byob-advertising-deemed-unconstitutional
NJ’s liquor license lobby has also persuaded the NJ Alcoholic Beverage Commission to ban NJ Breweries and Distilleries from basically advertising “Bring your own food”. Which is f*cking absurd. They have zero regulatory authority over this, yet they’ve codified this in regulation. I can get fined, and get my license revoked if I have a take out menu in my place. I’m not even talking about advertising food being available, simply having a take-out menu where someone can pick it up is enough. Why is it a problem if the pizza place down the road wants to deliver to my customers? I’m giving another local business the opportunity to make more money. I’m not taking away anyone’s local business. YET – the liquor license lobby, sees this as a major threat to restaurants that have liquor licenses. If I had a Rutt’s menu sitting on a table or counter someone, I’m in trouble.
Please spare me the temperance movement, teetotaler viewpoints on alcohol regulation, and how licensure protects the public, because that’s completely fucking nonsense.
Eddie,
When was the last time you had a drink or took a puff? You sound like a cranky old f#ck.
What’s fair though? For retail sellers if they change the rules all the mom and pop liquor stores go out of business and all the grocery stores and other big nationwide chains take over. Our Shoprite now has a massive liquor store, the family that owns it and other Shoprites are extremely wealthy. You can bet they would love to drive everyone else in the area out of business buy buying up all the licenses for example. The state rule is what one license per 3,000 people per town. Perhaps it should be done county wide and take the power away from the towns.
Then there are towns like Hoboken way over the license amount due to the grandfathering of licenses. They should have only 16 licenses and they have well over 100.
I don’t see the small businesses making out if they go too far, just more consolidation in favor of national chains.
Ed,
Freeway Jam Live. Always better live. Going to dust off CD today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYLYxMS2YsA
So crude and precious metals are creeping up again. Volatility is calming down again. Speculative shit like Bitcoin is heating up again and CPI comes in at 6.5%, which is still pretty friggin’ high, though the trend is your friend. What does this all add up to? Everyone thinks it will accelerate a FED pivot because the FED has been so accommodating for so long. But why do they want to risk overheating the economy again? I’ve seen some recent well reasoned articles that says inflation will come roaring back in 2024. Remember, this latest market move is all FED related. Earning season is about to start in earnest, (can I market that line?) and I have a feeling they are going to be bad. I’ve recently been taking informal surveys of friends and nearly all of them cut back on discretionary spending. Some did not, of course. Call it a 70/30 split about.
What’s the big headwind now? I think it housing. Maybe not as much here, but in markets where things got really stupid, a crash is already occurring. I’ve been tracking Las Vegas real estate as that is where I go next and they are down a solid 10% and have now given up a full 12 months worth of gains. The recent drop in mortgage rates has not helped and the pace of price declines is accelerating. It was 2.6% last month alone. If a recession occurs and layoffs become contagious, housing will again crash. It’s still very early in the downturn.
I am hyperfocused on markets these days, because I have never had so much potential to profit off of them. It’s not even close. If I’m right, I can comfortably retire when I head to Vegas. If not, I will need to take my job with me, which is fine, but I’d prefer to try something different for a change.
This earnings season should provide some clear clues. Right now, we are all guessing at best.
My uncle has been holding a liquor license in Teaneck from my family’s restaurant we closed in 1987. He wants a million dollars for it. It’s all a racket.
Lib: Fed does not want to heat the market up again, they have made that quite clear, whether the market wants to believe that or not is another thing. But, as we know there is a difference between pivot and pause; some people are using those terms interchangeably. In other news, my Brothers friends in Sweden, told him the housing market has dropped big time since they raised rates. The expectation is for prices to drop 20 to 30 percent over there.
Canada’s real estate is in freefall.
Then there are towns like Hoboken way over the license amount due to the grandfathering of licenses. They should have only 16 licenses and they have well over 100.
Not sure if this is a problem, or this is the reason why Hoboken has such a vibrant “main street” economy. I’m not so sure Hoboken would be what it is if it didn’t have this a primer for businesses.
Most downtowns in NJ have no chance of replicating even 1/100th of this, since there are simply zero licenses available – and if they are available, they are going to go to a chain on a highway.
I’m not saying we shouldn’t be smart about how licenses are provided. I’m also not saying that municipalities shouldn’t have a say in how many they will allow.
If Clifton wants to redevelop a main thoroughfare into a vibrant business hub, and attract a few new restaurants, why can’t they make that decision and grant 2, 3, 4, of these new license types (that are not transferrable, carry an annual fee-based structure), etc.
The existing licenses can continue to run as they are. Might they see some devaluation? Maybe, maybe not, but keep in mind license value has more to do with the town than the license itself.
My uncle bought a commercial property in Passaic a decade ago, and it came with a license. He sold that license a few years back for $20k to some guys in Passaic Park that wanted it for a catering hall. $20k, that’s it, that was market value.
We restrict supermarket chains to 2 licenses, but that doesn’t eliminate the possibility of Shop Rite opening Shop Rite Liquors, which isn’t a supermarket chain. Stu Leonard’s in Clifton is a liquor store only. You can play past all of this with creative structuring of business entities. Even so, who says we can’t restrict them going forward to prevent this kind of dominance?
Was Pumpkin last night proposing to get BRT to teach him how to teach in return for sucking his c0ck? I don’t think BRT has a “tutor chain” kink, whatever that is. Pumpkin must have had a few too many drinks before posting.
lol jesus, I missed that one No One. I don’t know what kind of malarky that was, but my tutoring gig is purely built on my effectiveness and results. I know exactly where their teachers are coming up short and I do a better job than they do. I operate exclusively by word of mouth, and have had years where I had to tell upwards of a dozen people that I don’t have the time. I would never have any interest in a business partner or employees. They aren’t me. I am the product.
Used car prices dropped 14.9% last year and 2.7% in December. Come to papa!
“Inflation in nonenergy services prices, which affects 56% of consumer budgets, still hasn’t begun to subside. Core services prices rose 0.5% on the month and 7% from a year ago vs. 6.8% in November. However, that’s partly due to the way the Labor Department calculates housing inflation. While new rates for rental housing have been falling for months, it takes about a year for that to be fully reflected in renewed leases and the CPI.
Still, services prices excluding shelter rose 7.4% from a year ago. That includes energy services prices, which are up 15.6% from a year ago. Excluding energy and shelter, service prices are up about 6.8% from a year ago.”
I want a head to roll….. couple of $2B evaporated because of some sloppy Snapple drinking douche punched the wrong key with his greasy Smartfood fingers….
xxxxx
The ground stop and Federal Aviation Administration systems failures Wednesday morning that impacted thousands of flights across the U.S. appear to have been the result of a mistake that occurred during routine scheduled systems maintenance, according to a senior official briefed on the internal review.
An engineer “replaced one file with another,” the official said, not realizing the mistake was being made. As the systems began showing problems and ultimately failed, FAA staff feverishly tried to figure out what had gone wrong. The engineer who made the error did not realize what had happened.
“It was an honest mistake that cost the country millions,” the official said.
Libturd,
Coming soon is a drop in new car prices, maybe. Or at least an increase in discounts from MSRP. Auto companies, including Tesla, were way over-earning in the past two years. The shortage of chips created an externally-imposed capacity discipline that the auto industry doesn’t actually possess in the long run. Previously ultra low rates and surging asset prices also made buyers feel rich, alongside cash transfers from government financed with cheap government debt. Over the coming years, I’d expect a lot of these dynamics to reverse.
So you openly admit that No One’s conjecture about sucking cock is correct?
BRT says:
January 12, 2023 at 10:15 am
I operate exclusively by word of mouth, and have had years where I had to tell upwards of a dozen people that I don’t have the time.
Inflation is still here. My local garage now charges $89.99 for a synthetic oil change. It was $69 2 years ago and $79 last spring. They now charge 2.5% fee for using a credit card too. That’s a new fee.
Texas government facilities charge a 2.5% fee when you use a credit card too.
Hadn’t been in FlatIron for awhile. Didn’t realize the NY Life Building is being gut rehabbed. They are keeping the clock tower, but they are building a whole new structure east of Madison Park across 23rd to Park Avenue S.
The skunk vaping is still out of control.
We clearly need a liquor license exchange… the LLX…we can make the licenses into NFT’s..what could go wrong…
Walked into a Starbucks because the app told me that my stars were expiring. I order a grande Pike. The guy behind the counter said that’s it? Don’t you want anything in it? I said no. I started to fumble for the app, and I said screw it, I took out the old Starbucks card and handed it to him. He look at it dumfounded. I said swipe it. “oh!”
Am I this fucking old?
Chifi,
It’s ok, the FAA has been increasing its diversity, which some people claim is an unmitigated good.
https://www.faa.gov/jobs/diversity_inclusion
They’re also unionized.
It’s a minor miracle that the FAA has worked as well as it has.
My Nasty Chart is approaching the upper trend ban again.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/FyRv2QxEAV5vHV9W6
Old Realtor,
You sound like a cranky old f#ck.
Get off my lawn, ya hooligans! :)
Bystander,
You caught my link on the other thread?
I was going to address that Beck tune to you.
I had some Jeff Beck 8 tracks in the late 70s when I was 9. Listened to it a lot for a year or two. Think I tried listening to it streaming a few years ago, switched away pretty quick.
That was about the same time practically everyone was playing “Frampton Comes Alive” which I now also find uninteresting.
Bystander, et. al.,
Go to the 11:21 mark on this vid and watch Steve Hackett jam the last piece of “Supper’s Ready”. Some of it reminds me a little of Beck but this whole generation of guitarists were just in another world. You’ll also see where Eddie Van Halen (among others) got some of his ideas. To all, I recommend taking a puff here and putting on some decent head phones or ear buds to listen. ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BC2IoAlSlPc
Am I this fucking old?
Yeah. It happens quick.
That 20 year old girl that looks 15 to you, she is actually 26.
The knee you bumped playing baseball, yeah, it’s done and it needs replacing.
Life’s too short to not start a tutoring company. Haha.
10:30 Have you seen the new BMWs. My G-d they are ugly.
“What’s fair though? For retail sellers if they change the rules all the mom and pop liquor stores go out of business…The state rule is….Perhaps it should be done county wide and take the power away from the towns. Then there are towns like Hoboken way over the license amount due to the grandfathering of licenses. They should have only 16 licenses and they have well over 100. ”
How about this…get the government the fuck out of micromanaging peoples’ lives and outcomes? And out of determining what’s “fair”. A corporate guy wants to side hustle with some family in a distillery? Go for it. Booze, food, menus, music, TV…If he’s good, he’ll do well (and well by his customers). If not, then not.
Why should anyone have to operate with one arm behind their back so that some half-wit hack lower on the intellectual and honesty food chain than some faceless, nameless corporate bureaucrat can try to obtain some outcome they deem desirable?
Who the fuck are they? Seriously? Why does the guy who actually goes out on a limb with his finances, time, and reputation have to answer to the former type of idiot at all?
I mean, just trying to wrap my mind around this situation is boggling…it’s not even just unfair, it’s morally reprehensible.
I wonder if the best tutoring in the future will be about soft skills. Like how to get diagnosed for ADHD so you can get all sorts of extra time for your tests and class assignments. And how to properly identify as an underrepresented victim of society, which can boost your chances of acceptance into your preferred school by more than 10x! That’s a powerful combination, as long as you also plan a career in a field where results and competence play no role, like government work, community organizing, certain segments of academia, and politics.
We could use you guys. Fake it until you make it.
Goldman Sachs cut 3,200 jobs – giving some workers as little as 30 minutes to pack up their desks and leave and firing them without paying a bonus for their work in the past year
Just in: Another batch of classified documents were found in Joe Biden’s home garage in Delaware. The documents contained Obama-Biden Administration records.
Lol. In his garage! LOL.
Hurry, switch the narrative to umm… Trump! No, Santos! Umm… something right wing!! Hurry!
Take the restrictor plate off and let the engine run full volumetric efficiency.
Don’t let those NASCAR half-wit hack lower on the intellectual and honesty food chain officials control the speeds.
Get those govt monkeys off our backs!!!
Guns, booze, pot, drugs,-it’s time to let it rip roar!!! No more taxes either. Eff the man!
11:22 gotta admit, this makes Joe look stoooooopid.
Maybe it’ll spare us another run by the old fella.
Sick of the boomer-style governance.
11:26 Medicare for all.
Chi,
The “engineer” was probably in Bangalore and probably gives a f* that it crippled travel here. His daily commute looks like game of MarioKart.
ByS, yeah, I’m saddened by his passing too. Many of you on here are hard core guitar/instrument guys…I’m just a consumer, hell I’m happy if I can move like Steve Martin…but even I knew Beck was something special when I first heard him in the 70s…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOKpDidUq-w&ab_channel=EllieCrow
Re: Hudson Valley real estate, goes in waves…easiest arbitrage for an NYC’er of salary/affordability as he can actually get there with reasonably little effort unlike other lower priced areas of the country…seems to surface at many market disjoints, remember it being all the rage in the late 80s when housing prices shot up nearly 50% in a few years…did courtesy loans to law firm partners at the time (new business generation tool, give the bank’s money away easily and cheaply to individual lawyers to get them to feed us their client’s corporate business on the real juice where we get paid personally…). Only time I ever got called into the CCO (chief credit officer) office…he was like how the fuck many of these loans did you write? LOL. Typical takedown was just beneath my signing authority at the time, so it was just me with obligatory peer signature…did it for multiple investment houses for one partner, the ‘opportunity’ ran through the firm so the rest lined up of course…by the time I got yanked into the CCO office he was probably correct, the partners of a couple Park Ave law firms owned a not insignificant portion of the better land opportunities in one upstate address….It’ll come back down to Earth, beautiful area, but you can only stare at the hill in Bethel or call the six blocks of the town of Woodstock ‘quaint’ so many times before it gets old fairly quickly….
In honor of the documents in Joe’s garage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mz_EeEN_YXQ
11:22 gotta admit, this makes Joe look stoooooopid.
Makes America look stoooooopid.
And it is. For having such candidates to choose from. Don’t believe it’s an accident though.
More alcohol and guns for everyone. Job security for me when they come in as car accident, gunshot, and liver failure victims.
And everyone else gets the pleasure of what they want, being victims and wanting justice as if some court is going to bring back their loved one.
Put this on your loved one’s tombstone: He had the right of way. Justice was served.”
“Goldman Sachs cut 3,200 jobs – giving some workers as little as 30 minutes to pack up their desks and leave and firing them without paying a bonus for their work in the past year”
Welcome to the jungle. If they are on a desk with trading authority or have access to confidential client information they don’t even get to pack their desks…security will walk them out the building directly from the HR meeting, and someone will pack up what is deemed their belongings for them. I’ve seen guys not even be allowed back to the floor to retrieve their own suit jacket hanging on the back of their office door lol.
Nice exaggeration of my point on regulation btw….seriously, grim should not be able to even put a menu on his tables?
You’ve been in a highly regulated industry in a suffocatingly paternalist state waaayyy too long my friend….
11:56 that’s…bleak.
leftwing,
Everything you said is accurate but not 100% complete. From some of the comments, you seem to minimize the times when special interests want the regulation to favor them directly or indirectly. While we could debate chicken v egg for different examples of over-regulation, my point is there are many many examples of both.
Ed,
Now that is funny. I love the Watermelon in Easter Hay. Great version on Hammersmith Odeon live which is perhaps favorite live performance of Frank. Of course, it has Adrian Belew. That guy is right next to Jeff Beck as a guitarist’s guitarist. His work with Frank and Talking Heads in late 70s/early 80s is unreal.
Clusterfuck at Newark airport today, new
Terminal A opened today and the new parking garage is not open yet and the air train does a not stop at the new terminal yet. So parked at P4 road AirTran to the nee parking garage and it’s either a 15 minute walk or wait for bus.
Ex: That is how it is done. I remember it well.
Subway Sandwich, might be sold, valued at 10 billion!! It’s awful , two slices of meat on a soggy hero roll!
3b,
I believe Subway is the largest franchise in the world? And G0d only knows why. They are the worst sub sandwich makers in the history of ‘two pieces of bread with something in the middle’. If you like a lettuce sandwich on bread made by Dupont, this is the place for you.
Lol people got stuck in the air train elevator when I was going down the escalator, some kind of power outage. New homeland security lines are immense, and not all the lines are open. People ahead of me have been waiting 45 minutes so far with perhaps another half hour to go.
Clusterfick, news is here now with cameras too.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/newyork/news/power-outage-security-breach-frustrate-passengers-as-newark-airport-opens-new-terminal-a/
Bystander,
I saw Zappa live at the Felt Forum (Madison Square Garden) on Halloween night in the 80s. The band was tight! Phenomenal! The drummer was Terry Bozzio (Missing Persons) and one of the guitarists was Steve Vai. Got a ride back to Jersey from some girl with an El Camino. Lol!
You guys want to hear some sick guitar playing?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvcFbpLyt_M
Fast: I ate there once, never again. Too bad all the good Italian Delis in Bergen Co have closed over the years.
One more guys. Hold on to your chair when you get to the 1:24 minute mark:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZXHbeBHgKU
On Dealers. Chevy dealer by me had it the worst, at it lowest they had one row of cars in the front of the lot. Over the last few months the main lot is starting to fill in. Figure it will be another year or so until they fill both the lots. Subaru dealer was second in low volume. Dodge/Ram somehow had a good selection throughout the constraints.
Biden’s team knew about his document storage-in-inappropraite places issue before the midterms. They let the information out only after the midterms, after the GA runoff, and after the new congress was seated.
2022 Senate Election Results:
Nevada ((D)C. Cortez Masto = 48.8% of vote, 498,316 votes) ((R) A. Laxalt = 48.0% of vote, 490,388 votes)
Walker was at 48.5% of the vote in GA on the first ballot. Maybe he’d have 1.5% more of the electorate pull his name if Biden was also responsible for storing documents in the wrong place, like Trump. (to preempt any response, I don’t feel particularly angry or animated about this issue, wheter Trump or Biden did it – I do see the hypocrisy of the D’s trying to hit Trump hard on this issue while Biden essentially did the same thing).
If I am a NJ mayor, I probably want the liquor license laws abolished. Your downtown’s restaurants will be making 15% more profit, so their rent on a lease renewal will rise by 10%, so the commercial buildings they exist within are worth 5% more and the property taxes go up accordingly. Seems helpful to keep the tax raises a bit lower and keep it off the residential homeowners who are the big majority of the voters.
Didn’t Trump refuse to return the documents after multiple requests prompting a raid of Night Mar-E-Lago?
Didn’t Biden self report the issue and is doing everything in his power to rectify it?
At the end of the day, it’s still not a bid deal. But there are key differences in play here.
And as usual, it’s always the lesser of two evils.
“The pandemic didn’t do that [create bad sociological outcomes, like lesser student achievement, OD’s, etc]. The way we handled the pandemic did that . . . it was not written in stone that we had to handle it the way we did.” – Bill Maher
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ5lJ4tf6vk
1:42 . . . Wasn’t Biden the guy whose sales pitch was something about “restoring the soul of the nation”?
Shouldn’t he be held to a higher standard than Mr. “Grab ’em by the p-“?
Again, I don’t really care much about what former POTUS or VPOTUS do with “classified” documents. I simply disagree with anyone who wants to apply the same standards to Trump (whose election was probably the most jarring indication of widespread American discontent since the protests of the 1960’s era) and any member of the Establishment (Biden, Bush, Clinton, etc.).
The US government classifies everything to prevent transparency. That’s probably the main issue here.
From Tangle:
Numbers.
93%. The percentage of Democrats who believed Trump had classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, according to a September poll.
39%. The percentage of Republicans who believed Trump had classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, according to a September poll.
300+. The number of known classified documents that were recovered from Trump since he left office.
10. The number of known classified documents that Biden’s lawyers turned over.
Five. The maximum prison sentence, in years, for knowingly removing classified documents to place them at an unauthorized location, thanks to a law President Trump signed in 2018.
Again, I can’t stand either of them and wished this would knock Biden out of the 2024 race. It won’t make a difference.
I saw Jeff beck last year. He was still playing great at 78. Ann Wilson from heart opened, then beck, and then ZZ Top. Beck came back out and played a few songs with ZZ Top.
1:57 count yourself lucky!!
That’s a true farewell tour.
Nice exaggeration of my point on regulation btw….seriously, grim should not be able to even put a menu on his tables?
Hell, initially the State floated some preliminary rules by us that stated something to the effect that staff couldn’t even make a recommendation for food delivery. At least that didn’t make it in. Brewers got it removed in the response to the special ruling. But they have a better lobbyist, so they got it removed for them, unfortunately, it still exists for us. So now you have an absurd difference in the rules. They also got the ability to provide packaged snacks, we can’t.
By the way, the regulations specifically prohibit serving non-alcoholic beverages as well, and they specifically call out coffee… Why? Because one brewery in NJ loves craft coffee too, so they serve it.
https://njindy.com/2022/09/22/nj-brewery-files-lawsuit-against-state-abc-over-newly-imposed-limitations-on-the-craft-beer-industry/
Literally, they specifically name “coffee”.
Not to mention, by the way, these regulations run completely contrary to to safe alcohol service training and protocol – specifically ServSafe, which we’re required to have servers certified on. So when Servsafe recommends that if a patron is overconsuming, we provide them with food or non-alcoholic beverages instead. Yeah, we can’t do either of those.
You want to see what regulatory overreach looks like? Look what the NJ State ABC makes breweries do for private parties.
Must provide upon request a post-event accounting for every private party help on the premise, which may include by not limited to, a signed inventory report showing the sale and disposition of beverages sold by the brewery, and all invoices related thereto.
In an earlier draft of the ruling, they required breweries to capture and store the name and address of every attendee of a private party.
Saw Buddy Guy at BB King’s around 2015. Jeff Beck came on stage and played on a couple of songs. No announcement. If you didn’t know who he was, you wouldn’t have even known it was him.
3b,
Still a ton of great Italian delis in Bergen County. In your area Cosmos in Hackensack makes a great sandwich.
Thats good stuff Ed. Probably my blind spot in 70s music is early Genesis. I never really got into it. Decades back, shared an office and co-worked used to play them quite often at end of day after users left. We’d listen to Yes and Genesis alot. Problem was that he played it from his desk and music did not make it over to me very clearly. I am into shredding style but realize Vai was much more than that. If Frank loved him then must be special.
On Subway sale, this would hit close to home.,,literally. The Subway HQ has been in Milford (about 20m away) for decades. They leased big office in Miami last year and planned on moving HQ to Shelton this year. They are huge employer in these parts. Twice a year, I get some recruiter asking if I want to work at largest multinational franchise chain in the world. I reply that as long it is not Subway, willing to discuss. Funny, never got a reply. To quote Spinal Tap “sh%t sandwich” and deplorable business model of over-franchising, causing alot of small business owners to get slaughtered.
Not into shredding..
Old: Thanks for the heads up on Cosmos, will check it out. I used to love Dante s, but they closed a few years ago.
Old: Angelina s in Hawthorne is supposed to be very good, but have not tried it and, it’s a schlep for me to go get a sandwich. That said next time I am up there I will check it out.
Any of the A&S Fine Foods have the highest quality deli cold cuts. Anyone can find a good semolina roll from an Italian bakery (like Nicolo’s here in Montclair) and can chop up some lettuce tomatoes and onions, get a good EVOO and quality red wine vinegar, salt, pepper, oregano and can make a great sandwich that rivals any of the best heros available.
When I see what they charge for 6 and 10 footers, I just do it myself lining up three or four 18 inch rolls and going to town on the meats. You can build a better sub then they offer at half the price, with higher quality meats than most places. If you go to Corrado’s, you can build a decent 6 foot sub for the price of about two regular subs at your local pizza joint. Corrado’s cold cuts are better than Boar’s Head and way better than Shop Rite’s Great Bear, but not quite A&S, especially for the fancy Italian cuts like prosciutto and sopresatta or capicola. Just make sure you shred the lettuce real fine and the tomatoes are very red. A super sharp provolone helps too.
I have A&S 5m from my house. Thankful everyday for it. When you get this far up line in CT, the Italians seem to forget how make food.
Lib: Looks like the nearest A&S to me is in Wyckoff. And here I thought A&S was Abraham & Strauss!
Headlines 2022
Peloton will lay off 500 employees, about 12 percent of its workforce, according to a memo that Peloton CEO Barry McCarthy sent to employees on Oct. 5 and was first reported by the Wall Street Journal. With the 4th round layoffs, which will be most felt in its marketing operations, Peloton will have 3,825 employees, down from the 6,700 employees it had at the end of June 2021, according to the New York Times.
My linkedin page:
Sarah V. (She/Her)
Senior Recruiter at Peloton Interactive
Peloton has been recognized by Built In as one of the 2023 Best Places to Work for the 4th year in a row. Come work with us! We are #hiringnow and our #jobopenings are listed in the link.
We live in crazy times. Hire, fire, hire..
Bystander,
Early Genesis is better than it sounds. But not as good as King Crimson, ELP, or Yes.
Libturd,
You should get a pro meat slicer like Cosmo Kramer.
Two things I remember about Subway….none of my kids liked it, which is very unusual…and years ago, clearly over a decade, there was some investigatory reporting show segment on it, I recall some poor older guy who bought a franchise going into retirement nearly weeping on camera, saying “all I did was spend $250k to buy myself a minimum wage job”.
Weird, but that line has always stuck with me.
My PA girl flies strombolis in from a little place she grew up near.
They taste amazing!!
Lol Jesus
Not a single comment about Blair and Jo Polniaczek? Come on people.
We live in crazy times. Hire, fire, hire..
New leadership is far better than the old leadership, speaking from experience.
Anyone can find a good semolina roll from an Italian bakery (like Nicolo’s here in Montclair) and can chop up some lettuce tomatoes and onions, get a good EVOO and quality red wine vinegar, salt, pepper, oregano and can make a great sandwich that rivals any of the best heros available.
Making me drool. We always have good salami, mortadella, and provolone here – the problem is good sub bread is a 1 day thing. Making whipping up a sub on demand tricky.
Though, salami and provolone on really good rye bread, that’s a winner in my book, every time. Kind of sandwich that sticks to your ribs.
I like Levy’s rye the best for sandwiches, mostly because it lasts forever in the bag (and sorry, their slogan ain’t the truth). For real rye bread, Polonia Bakery in Passaic is hands down the best on earth. You pair this with a good pastrami, and you will not find a better sandwich anywhere.
This random review on google is 100% spot-on. When we were kids we would stop at Polonia after church on Sunday. By the time we got home the first loaf of rye was gone. I think there was a year when I was really young, where the only thing I ate was this rye bread and butter.
We heard that the bread is awesome, so we decided to take a ride and try for ourselves. We got a couple of different types of bread and of course started eating some rye bread as soon as we got in the truck. Started to drive home, only to turn around because we had only purchased one loaf of rye. I thought it was amazing, so we turned around to get two more loaves of rye bread. By the time we got home we had devoured the first loaf of bread.
Anyone can find a good semolina roll from an Italian bakery (like Nicolo’s here in Montclair) and can chop up some lettuce tomatoes and onions, get a good EVOO and quality red wine vinegar, salt, pepper, oregano and can make a great sandwich that rivals any of the best heros available.
When oregano meets tomatoes, you’re introducing pizza sauce but I get your point here. I get everyone’s point and it’s easy to know when you score good products.
Grim, I like Levi’s rye, too. :) I’m going to Polonia and check that out. :)
This was a good stop when I lived in Clifton –> https://www.acporkstore.com/
In Hoboken, go here:–> https://www.vitosdeli.com/
And yes, I know Fiores in ‘Boken is a mainstay. ;) Chill out. lol.
In Jersey City, go here –> https://andreasalumeria.com/a-homepage-section/
And, I’ve still not found Italian bread as good as Arthur Avenue on this side of the river.
Grim,
Please approve my comment.
Oooopsies…..
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandralevine/2023/01/11/jp-morgan-fake-customers-frank-charlie-javice/?sh=4f90a2e814d4
Lisa Marie Presley is dead. Only 54. That sucks.
Good morning, all!
https://tinyurl.com/3x4zwb3u
Looking good Gary!
Gary wants Hunter’s bait & tackle.
Gary wants Hunter’s bait & tackle.
He can have it. I’ll take the car, however.
Seats can be steam cleaned.
Tesla cut prices 6 to 19% on Model 3 and Y. Booth now qualify for the full $7500 tax credit until they add in the mineral sourcing. Wait until they are at full capacity in Texas, prices will fall further.
I retract my earlier statement. Eff her, hope a worm is eating her eyeball right now.
Lisa Marie Presley was embroiled in a ferocious custody battle with her ex-husband Michael Lockwood for years after she falsely accused him of having hundreds of images and videos of child pornography on his computer.
Crazy move by TSLA. EV industry entering the real economy where pricing and competition matter….
Gary,
Missing white powder under nose and the giant lock that Brandon said was on the garage.
Model. Old price New price Difference
Model 3. $46,990 $43,990 -$3k (-6%)
Model 3 Performance. $62,990 $53,990. -$9k (-14%)
Model Y $65,990 $52,990 -$13k (-20%)
Model Y Performance. $69,990. $56,990. -$13k (-19%)
Model S $104,990. $94,990. -$10k (-10%)
Model S Plaid $135,990 $114,990. -$21k (-15%)
Model X $120,990 $109,990. -$11k (-9%)
Model X Plaid $138,990. $119,990. -$19k (-14%)
There is literally no reason to have a spouse.
My kids have been all the family I need in every non-material sense, along with my siblings (emotionally)…regarding the material benefits of a having a spouse I can possess basically every benefit cheaper (and often of better quality) by ‘leasing’ rather than by ‘owning through marriage’…child care, meals, housecleaning, transport, ADL convenience, sexual relations, social, etc.
A non- or lesser-earning spouse is most often a negative EV trade financially…and that is without the massive ‘tail risk’ experienced by phoenix and LMP’s ex-husband…
Why would anyone knowingly enter into a trade where the mean return is skewed negative AND the tail risk is even more highly negative?
It is literally the definition of an inverse lotto….lose little amounts daily by buying low probability tickets but in the rare event of actually hitting the lotto instead of getting millions you lose even more instead…it is the definition of financial lunacy.
https://www.arcfertility.com/patient-resources/family-building/single-men/
It’s funny to see all these businesses that pushed up prices and created more inflation than was actually needed….now they are all scrambling to lower prices as a deflationary pressure is coming…
Did you really have to raise all these prices? Did you? Now you created the negative economics climate you will have to compete against.
Leftwing,
You are correct until you get old and need someone to wipe your ass and feed you soup.
Lefty,
Truth to what you are saying. You have to be crazy to get married today as a male. It’s all negative risk you take on. Esp, if your wife falls off the deep end like a lot of them do as they age. Now that’s your baggage, and if you leave, you get financially f/ked.
Don’t get me wrong, nothing better than a happy wife and family. I’m just talking about when it goes wrong. Just not worth the risk for most males.
No guarantee of any of that if you marry.
Ask me how I know. One thing is for sure, if you make enough money you can pay someone to do exactly those things. It’s much harder after you have gambled on a “spouse” only to cost you thousands in ass wiping soup money.
Leftwing,
You are correct until you get old and need someone to wipe your ass and feed you soup.
“No guarantee of any of that if you marry.”
Never a guarantee. Then again, that Estonian nurse you paid top dollar for might spit in your soup and give you worms.
ass wiping soup money
Is that a punk song?
“No guarantee of any of that if you marry.”
Never a guarantee. Then again, that Estonian nurse you paid top dollar for might spit in your soup and give you worms.
Only thing that will love you till you die is your dog. Then when you die and don’t feed it you will become it’s last meal.
ass wiping soup money
Is that a punk song?
Only punk I listen to is the Ramones. I’ve heard Sheena is a punk rocker, but never that track you mentioned.
Learned this from a bugs bunny episode. God spelled backwards….aka man’s best friend. Dogs rule! Absolutely loving souls.
“You are correct until you get old and need someone to wipe your ass and feed you soup.”
Gator seems like a wonderful woman so maybe you’re different but if I’m in a situation where I was the primary earner, there’s a whole bunch of capital banked, and now I’m on my back in need of someone healthy and vibrant to actually wipe my ass….
I know the odds on favorite bet I’m making as to who will actually do that between my wife or a kid….
In that scenario dude? Kid will be at your bedside while your ‘wife’ is texting him to hurry and get to the dinner where she’s introducing the new boyfriend…on your banked dime of course….
[the generic ‘you’ of course, no disrespect meant at all to Gator]
And anyway, worms might be preferable to this:
https://bit.ly/3Xd2HQm
In that scenario dude? Kid will be at your bedside while your ‘wife’ is texting him to hurry and get to the dinner where she’s introducing the new boyfriend…on your banked dime of course….
“I am a marvelous housekeeper. Every time I leave a man, I keep his house.” Zsa Zsa Gabor
“Never a guarantee. Then again, that Estonian nurse you paid top dollar for might spit in your soup and give you worms.”
Or slip her an extra fiddy and have her ride you like a bad horse since your drawers are down anyway. Try getting that from wifey, assuming she is around even if she is 40 older and 40 heavier than nursie…
Now I understand why the dolt is such a poor investor…he doesn’t understand that in the scenario I laid out in his situation HE is the the negative EV for his spouse…
Lesbian M&M’s. Why no gay male M&M characters?
I mean if you are going to be woke, why discriminate?
https://marketingtherainbow.info/case%20studies/cs-fmcg/m-ms
The Gabor quote is priceless but at 11:24a please don’t ever do that again….seriously….
Phoenix,
Here’s a lovely punk song for you:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JRJ5vz7paE
You know my doctor, Dr. Vinnie Boombatz.
Well, he tells my I need to quit smoking. So I tell my wife, the only time we’ll smoke is to have one cigarette after sex.
The only problem is that I haven’t had a smoke in months. My wife is up to a pack a day.
Took the words right out of my mouth.
Libturd says:
January 13, 2023 at 10:53 am
Leftwing,
You are correct until you get old and need someone to wipe your ass and feed you soup.
Heard on siriusxm this morning an interesting thing about Dangerfield. He smoked pot every single day since 1952. He even smoked a joint in the white house bathroom just to say he did. Proof that pot doesn’t make you stupid or lazy…it’s on you.
The Gabor quote is priceless but at 11:24a please don’t ever do that again….seriously….
You missed the best part.
The smell. Knocks off not only your socks, but your Nike’s as well.
That’s not even close to the worst ones I have been in. Welcome to a small slice of my world, where sometimes the arm or the foot arrive before the rest of the torso.
I’d like a raise this year, please.
Your chosen profession….good luck, and thank you….but I am literally physically nauseous right now, and I’m no shrinking violet having among other things observed more than one ortho surgery….
everyone is one unfortunate twist of fate a step away from experiencing medieval….and many times there was never a real choice on their part….
I didn’t open that link because I had a feeling it was cringe-worthy and now I definitely will not open. Lol. I don’t want to know.
Not surprised one bit.
Drunk and high drivers now the top cause of fatal crashes in N.J., report shows
Updated: Jan. 13, 2023, 7:25 a.m.|Published: Jan. 13, 2023, 7:24 a.m.
Intoxicated drivers buzzed on booze and drugs are now the leading cause of fatal traffic crashes in New Jersey, according to a just-released annual State Police report that analyzed fatal collisions in 2021.
For the first time in a decade, distracted driving was not the leading cause of fatal crashes in the state, the State Police report found. While a 2023 state safety plan laid out strategies and program to reduce crashes, safety and driver advocates are debating, and in some cases disagreeing, about the best ways to do that.
In 2021, 697 people were killed in 667 crashes, the highest fatalities since 2007 and an increase for the third year in a row, despite the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. New Jersey had 218 fatal pedestrian crashes in 2021, the highest number since 1989.
Intoxication (both alcohol and drugs) was the top “contributing factor” in 210 fatal crashes in 2021, a 30% increase from the 162 crashes in 2020 where intoxication was blamed, the analysis found. The 210 crashes in 2021 killed a total of 228 people.
It’s a death trap….it’s a suicide rap….,
Has anyone here read this?
https://www.amazon.com/How-World-Really-Works-Science/dp/0593297067/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8
…….get out while your young
closed my SPY hedge earlier today, done doing those. Reflection shows they are emotional trades prompted by the worst part of my DNA for these types of situations – loss avoidance – and I should not be hedging something with the highly favorable loss profile it has, need to find better ways to express downside protection so….shorted UAL with a cover into close, ER Tues afternoon, stupid overbought, may very well stay that way and I’m aware of DAL ER and bounceback from the open today but it’s still underwater….I’m green again yet today so I have some money to risk…..
VIX at exactly a one year low at 18.27….we’re risk on for sure boys, bear market rally or is it for real this time….
Never had so much angst while my account continues to accrete…pretty fucked up if I think about it….this is the most hated bull run I’ve seen in a while….
Chifi,
I haven’t read Smil, but I did just read this review.
https://www.treehugger.com/how-the-world-really-works-vaclav-smil-review-5323236
Sounds like he’s expert on a few subjects, but mostly energy, and lets the world revolve around them. I’d say he’s missing some important forests for the trees he’s decided to examine. But if you want to get really detailed info about the world’s need for energy, this or his previous books appear to have it.
An easier more pro-capitalist alternative testament to the benefits of energy can be found from Alex Epstein’s Center for Industrial Progress
If I was looking for a book about the environment, I’d probably look at Bjorn Lomborg’s latest, False Alarm, or Unsettled by Koonin.
Here’s a descriptive review. Smil is more realistic about the need for ongoing fossil fuel than FT writers like.
https://www.ft.com/content/71072c77-53b3-4efd-92ae-c92dc02f09ad
With the tesla price drop guys on youtube made a great point, it tanked the used car market and put tons of current owners under water especially for the model y. 13K price reduction + $7500 tax incentive. It will also crush the dealers like Carvana that currently have all there model Y’s list above the current pricing. Then VW ID4, Ford Mach E will need to rethink there pricing.
thx on recommends!
No One says:
January 13, 2023 at 5:08 pm
Chifi,
I haven’t read Smil, but I did just read this review.
Look at bitcoin and ETH run….still laughing at that chit. Hope this falls one last time, or I am going to miss my opportunity to buy a whole bitcoin for 17k.
When will you guys realize the market changed. This is not Buffett’s market or the ones you guys grew up with. These people love high growth risk.
Said I wanted to buy DNA the other day at 1.50. Of course I get f’ed for being greedy and it’s running up to 1.84 already.
Might hold, might not.. point is, when economy turns, you guys are going to look like fools for mocking cathie wood at the bottom.
Model. Old price New price Difference
Model 3. $46,990 $43,990 -$3k (-6%)
Model 3 Performance. $62,990 $53,990. -$9k (-14%)
Model Y $65,990 $52,990 -$13k (-20%)
…
Holy crap, that’s a pretty brutal price chop.
Well, if you listened to cathie wood….you would know this was inevitable. That’s the point of disruptive innovation! You think the price was going to go up long-term? It’s a f’ing disruption. Wake up.
trick says:
January 13, 2023 at 5:43 pm
With the tesla price drop guys on youtube made a great point, it tanked the used car market and put tons of current owners under water especially for the model y. 13K price reduction + $7500 tax incentive. It will also crush the dealers like Carvana that currently have all there model Y’s list above the current pricing. Then VW ID4, Ford Mach E will need to rethink there pricing.
Hence, i said deflation was the real enemy long-term and you guys laughed and mocked me. Understand that inflation was always just a short-term anomaly with demographics combined with deflationary disruptive tech.
Low rates gone forever?! Lmao…yea, okay…
Sign me up for my $1000 monthly payment, Elon.
Was in Vegas earlier this week for a big sales meeting. My iPhone covid alert blowing up.
Elon the mohel just performed a Brie on Tesla.
grim says:
January 13, 2023 at 7:45 pm
Model. Old price New price Difference
Model 3. $46,990 $43,990 -$3k (-6%)
Model 3 Performance. $62,990 $53,990. -$9k (-14%)
Model Y $65,990 $52,990 -$13k (-20%)
…
Holy crap, that’s a pretty brutal price chop
Bris
Autocorrect
Bottom might be in, folks.
“Yesterday a popular momentum thrust indicator gave a buy signal with advancing stocks leading declining stocks by better than 1.91 to 1 over the last 10 trading sessions. This is definitely a step in the right direction and something we want to see coming off a bear market low.”
I might be sick if I missed the bottom this week with DNA. You saw me write it here. Wanted to buy back in next day. Face ripper happened next morning before i could buy in. Might have called bottom, but still missed with how fast they move.
Calling that chit 18 hrs to the tee and still missing. Unbelievable.
Lmao..
“Mortgage Rates fell, with no QE and balance sheet reduction on top of more rate hikes.
For all my 8%-10% mortgage rate people, please explain this one to me”
You can’t call bottom at 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 and then claim you hit it. It’s literally the definition of a broken clock.
Deutsche Bank on @Tesla price cuts:
“This is a bold offensive move, secures volume growth, puts its traditional & EV competitors in great difficulty, & showcases Tesla’s considerable pricing power & cost superiority; This could be the cut to end all cuts”