Worst behind us?

From the NY Post:

Here’s when US home price declines could end, Goldman Sachs says

The ongoing plunge in US home prices may be nearing its end, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note to clients this week.

Long-term mortgage rates have cooled by nearly a full percentage point after surging above 7% as the Federal Reserve enacted a series of interest rate hikes last year. The trend should improve housing affordability and cause price declines to reach a floor, according to the Wall Street Bank.

“The sharpest declines in the US housing market are now behind us,” Goldman analysts Ronnie Walker and Vinay Viswanathan said in a client note released on Monday.

The strategists added that they “expect a peak-to-trough decline in national home prices of roughly 6% and for prices to stop declining around mid-year.”

Overheated housing markets on the West Coast and in the Southwest will likely experience “larger declines” in home prices compared to the national rate due to a glut in inventory, the note said. Meanwhile, markets located in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions will see “more most declines.”

The surge in mortgage rates has caused a major correction in the US housing market in recent months, sending prospective buyers to the sidelines and causing sellers to rethink their plans or slash their asking prices to lure interest.

Other firms, including Pantheon Macroeconomics, project larger declines in home prices before a floor is reached. In December, Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson said prices could fall by up to 20% during a multi-year market correction.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, Mortgages, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

120 Responses to Worst behind us?

  1. Phoenix says:

    Good morning USA

    IBM Corp on Wednesday announced 3,900 layoffs, roughly 1.5 percent of its workforce, in the latest string of tech cuts dubbed the ‘richcession.’

  2. Very Stable Genius says:


  3. grim says:

    IBM is still around? Thought all of their employees would be dead or retired by now.

    Hear they cut the Selectric group.

    Watson didn’t see this coming?

  4. Juice Box says:

    IBm is back in the chip game, 2 nm chip technology with Rapidus out of Japan. They haven’t sunk Red Hat yet either revenue from them is about 10% of their total. It will be long time before IBM or even Oracle are gone they are embedded in everything.

  5. leftwing says:

    “it just feels as if we are sitting in a flag formation and it is getting tighter and tighter as we wind down into the middle…… then pop….. which way?”

    LOL, know the answer to that buy half the Caribbean…don’t like 50/50 plays….last times recently I had any directional edge I posted here, UAL and CPB, both shorts. Got nothing. Let’s see what 8:30a brings.

    Anyone here have an informed opinion on INTC?

  6. leftwing says:

    “America is essentially a vast place where transplanted Europeans steamrolled over indigenous people.”

    Red herring. The entire arc of history is one population taking from and transplanting another. At least like most they weren’t enslaved. More than one holiday and even religious symbols have roots in conflict as conquerors incorporated some customs of the vanquished in an effort to quell animosity.

    Bottom line, it sucks to be the loser in a conflict. Avoiding such should be the primary function of any governing entity. Failure to do so is on it and moreso its citizenry for allowing it to happen.

  7. 3b says:

    IBM big increase in sales as well

  8. 3b says:

    I think Ronnie Walker needs to take another look at his analysis.

  9. leftwing says:

    Sternlicht riffing as the morning guest on CNBC. Worth throwing on in the background. Smart guy, pulls no punches.

  10. Libturd says:

    The problem I have with the flag pattern is that we had this incredibly organized downturn with minimal variation until this flag arrives. I am really, really hoping, that this flag is nothing more than consolidation before the next large leg down. It just feels like we are still far from the bottom. Oil, the other half of the inflation story, is headed back up with China back on line. Inflation at 5.* is still a solid 3% too high. Tech layoffs (and some others) have been eye opening. Housing ain’t what it used to be and might not be for quite a while. We’ll get a sneak peak after the super bowl.

    It just feels like Wall Street is trying WILL the market positive. Unfortunately, most of this recent rally has been much higher risk and much less value. Since when did people ever get the bottom right?

    I’m still watching like a hawk. I may even put just a little back in, like maybe go to 40/60 since that’s where I would put the odds of this bear being over at. Where’s that CPI number.

  11. Libturd says:



    How will the FED interpret this? I’m thinking today will be the inverse of yesterday. Market will shoot up 2% and then slowly give it back the rest of the day as each rally gets tempered by a FED that still needs to slow the market.

  12. leftwing says:

    PCE tomorrow. Inflation sightline is fine, not worried about a two handle stake put in the ground an economic lifetime ago. Doesn’t mean the Fed won’t keep jawboning, it’s what they do. Kind of like your Mom hounding her kid to eat his broccoli, she has to say that but somehow greens always seem to end up in the bin.

    Not a big believer in flag patterns…telling me one of two things will happen but I don’t know which is literally of no value to me.

    Agree on this rally being higher risk and less value. VIX at 19, right now…I certainly can’t justify.

  13. leftwing says:

    “I’m thinking today will be the inverse of yesterday. Market will shoot up 2% and then slowly give it back the rest of the day.”

    SPY banged its head three times pre-market at 403. Futes three times at 4057. Watch those levels for turns/breakouts.

    Widely watched SPY daily resistance also at 402.85.

  14. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “America is essentially a vast place where transplanted Europeans steamrolled over indigenous people.”

    So true. Took the hardest, toughest, most beaten down individuals from europe and brought them to america. The people willing to risk it all for a better life. Lmao…the indigenous people never had a chance. Wrong place, wrong time. Nothing to do with racism and everything to do with bad timing and survival.

    Still haven’t bought anything. My gut says still to wait. So will go with it since market impossible to read right now. So still patiently waiting.

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just took such a large concentration of europe’s most desperate grittiest individuals and put them on a land with no law. Human nature went to work. Every hungry desperate individual on this planet would have done the same …doesn’t matter what ethnicity.

  16. Juice Box says:

    Interesting battle between Adani out of India and Hindenburg research out of the USA. I just thumbed through their report. It makes the Enron and Arthur Anderson fraud and accounting scandal look tame in comparison.

    The stock price run up on the various Adani companies listed in India over the last three years is unbelievable to say the least.


  17. Libturd says:

    Is it worse than Musk’s run with Tesla? Also juiced by government subsidies?

  18. leftwing says:

    Tip of the hat to you Lib…on two minute mark went long some 403P for today…just exited last of them….not paying anyone’s tuition but covers room for this semester lol.

    Drinks on me next time I see you.

    That’s what I’m reduced to these days, scalping openings. LOL

  19. Fabius Maximus says:

    I suppose McCarthy will promote him to the Financial Services Committee

    Tristan Snell @TristanSnell

    George Santos needs a new campaign treasurer. He tried to hire Richard Datwyler, but Datwyler rejected him.
    So Santos filed his campaign finance report under Datwyler’s name anyway — and signed his name.
    This all happened THIS WEEK — Santos is still lying, criminally.

  20. Juice Box says:

    Government subsidies? You mean like the $17.4 billion given to GM in 2008?

  21. Ex says:

    8:11 it’s not actually a Red Herring. It’s history. Real unadulterated history.
    Couple that with the covert shit we’ve done around the Globe. This Country
    has a massive identity crisis.

  22. Libturd says:

    “Government subsidies? You mean like the $17.4 billion given to GM in 2008?”

    Yeah, those too.

  23. Libturd says:

    For what it’s worth Lefty, I bought TQQQ in premarket at 8:45. Covered the books Gator Jr’s upcoming year. :P All in a tax free retirement account, of course.


  24. leftwing says:

    Ha. Pay for your own drinks then!

    “it’s not actually a Red Herring. It’s history.”

    Both statements are true concurrently….it did happen, and the assertion is just a distraction….

    Course of history as a civilization….you lose, it sucks.

    Actually, few losing populations have been treated as well. Given supra-governmental powers.

    As a civilization if you don’t want to be subjugated, don’t lose.

  25. Chicago says:

    Did you see CVX announced a $75B share program?

    I am amused. These guys are laughing all the way to the bank.

    It’s like Die Hard where the Greens are in the role of the FBI guys.


  26. Libturd says:

    I saw that yesterday Chicago. That’s a huge program.

  27. No One says:

    Loser civilizations are gonna lose. How many people want to give up the benefits of Western Civilization to eat seals with the eskimos or blow-dart monkeys with the jungle people?
    Similarly, most of the people in Africa should be pissed off that their great, great, great, great grandfather wasn’t captured by the stronger African gangs and put on a slave ship to America, so they now could get more access to Western Civilization, its human and physical capital, legal systems, opportunity, etc. Those guys really took one for the family team. Instead they have to live through the tribal warfare, backwardness and poverty that still persists in Africa, similar to how the American indian tribes lived a few hundred years ago.
    From what I’ve heard, some of my ancestors were poor folks in Wales, and then they were poor folks with a bit more opportunity in Georgia, doing pretty much the same work as the African Americans when they came over.

  28. grim says:

    I shouldn’t insult IBM.

    I cut my teeth learning to code in a professional setting on S/390 big iron (VSE, MVS) and I can trace much of my career back to nearly one opportunity I got to help our clients take their batch-mode back office systems and web-enable them through API (Screen scraping CICS transactions if you care). Geeky kid who during the dot com boom was king of the world because I could connect green screens to the Internet and eCommerce. That was the start of a pretty good run.

  29. Ex says:

    10:43 not all the losers are poor. Some folks are stripped of real riches. Happens.

  30. Juice Box says:

    Screen scraping …..Ugh that crap is still around…

    BTW IBM is being sued AGAIN by shareholders over shifting mainframe sales to Watson…. bundling of licenses etc. Same old decades-long, Enron-level grift scam with them, they dump products on you like Watson when you sign an enterprise agreement for a few years and then start billing you on software never used etc. It is usually the finance and csuite decision makers by then the nerds who actually have to work with IBM products were kicked out the $$$ conversations.


  31. Juice Box says:

    One of my previous employers fell victim to one of the IBM sales agreement debacles with the PVU scam too. Every developer eventually had their own DB2 Warehouse running in VMs, ever single developer. License audit came back and they wanted $25 million for the farm of PVUs running the software. The VP running the DataWarehouse group who let it run wild at the time jumped ship. Legal settled with some kind of new agreement to allow annual audits etc. That went well, they kept finding $$$ in licenses because Finance would sign these EA agreements with all kinds of bundled IBM garbage nobody even knew about but was somehow mission critical now to run accounting or generate reports. IBM has been a master scammer right up there with Oracle.

    I laughed when Larry Ellison bought SUN little did I realize he did it to rake Google over the coals for using Java in their Android stack. He lost that one in Supreme Court somehow in 2021.


  32. GuiltFree HereditaryExploiterOFMasses says:

    Regarding Crypto, I had this article bookmarked for a while. The guy did his research and pointed to the way Binance and others actually do the big scamming and this is well before the now known facts of stealing funds, hypothecation and wash sales.


    X & No One,

    I actually understand both of your points. Simply because of family lore and gossip of certain things that genetic ancestry testing mostly confirmed. From rebel aristocrats, slave trading and piracy for centuries. Fortunes gained, lost and actually physically buried somewhere and lost forever.

    What links all of them together is a two part ethos that they were loyal too and has stuck with a meandering ever shifting group of people that made the core of the ethos as family branches break off and merge in through out the centuries.

    1)Was calculated logical clean cut efficient decision making with a balls of steel execution. 2)Believe it or not a free-thinking humanist outlook with high value to classical and overall higher education, which allowed for #1 to be as successful as possible within the limits that lady luck allows in life.

    So just I sympathize with No One before he gets all libertarian political. Randomness and unpredictability happen just ask Schrodinger’s Cat. But generally losing societies, civilisations, etc have a combination of things that don’t allow them to adapt, correct and find opportunities and not just survive, but thrive and prosper when the status quo is challenged.

  33. Fast Eddie says:

    Some folks are stripped of real riches.

    Democrats working endlessly to see that that happens – even if you leave the state.

  34. grim says:

    Enron-level grift scam with them, they dump products on you like Watson when you sign an enterprise agreement for a few years and then start billing you on software never used etc.

    This is exactly Google Cloud, and they don’t at all hide it. Hoodwink the C suite to make some massive “enterprise commit” – and then push the org to find ways to use the spend, because it’s now all use it or lose it. Of course, everyone was sold on sizzle, with no real work in understanding how the hell they were going to migrate to even use that spend anyway.

  35. Ex says:

    11:38 while you are still paying off the corporate tax cuts from your hero.

  36. Ex says:

    cOrPoRatIons aRe PEoPle

  37. Ex says:

    Are corporations people? The U.S. Supreme Court says they are, at least for some purposes. And in the past four years, the high court has dramatically expanded corporate rights.

    It ruled that corporations have the right to spend money in candidate elections, and that some for-profit corporations may, on religious grounds, refuse to comply with a federal mandate to cover birth control in their employee health plans.

    These are personal rights accorded to corporations. To many, the concept of corporations as people seems odd, to say the least. But it is not new.

    The dictionary defines “corporation” as “a number of persons united in one body for a purpose.” Corporate entities date back to medieval times, observes Columbia law professor John Coffee, an authority on corporate law. “You could think of the Catholic Church as probably the first entity that could buy and sell property in its own name,” he says.

    Indeed, having an artificial legal persona was especially important to churches, says Elizabeth Pollman, an associate professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles.

    “Having a corporation would allow people to put property into a collective ownership that could be held with perpetual existence,” she says. “So it wouldn’t be tied to any one person’s lifespan, or subject necessarily to laws regarding inheriting property.”

  38. Juice Box says:

    We also had a big GCP implementation that ran wild too, they allowed to developers to fire up whatever the wanted. When the bill came due they quickly pulled the plug on allot of it. Same with Azure too, that is where the data warehouse went..Lol a bunch of giant SQL databases in Microsoft’s cloud churning away clock cycles and billing for every byte transferred in or out, we used the Azure Data Box to move the data. That was fun..

    Whenever these projects started up my running joke at meetings became who is to be the billing administrator?

  39. Fast Eddie says:

    while you are still paying off the corporate tax cuts from your hero.

    As they’re giving me a career with benefits, bonuses, health plans and savings plans.

  40. Juice Box says:

    Ex wait until the AI becomes a person too and also runs the corporations!

    It can’t be bargained with, it can’t be reasoned with, it doesn’t feel pity or remorse or fear and it absolutely will not stop ever!

    Bonus points if you guess the movie.

  41. Libturd says:

    Private Benjamin?

  42. Juice Box says:

    GuiltFree – I have been following the tether scam for years. The fact is the legal system has let us down. The had them dead to rights and blinked when there was an offer of a $$ settlement. The guy running Tether has a scammer background too. He is now very wealthy and hiding out in all the usual places like a bond villan, Switzerland and some tiny island off the coast of Africa. Funny thing there are news stories of SBF praising the Tether guy too his name is Giancarlo Devasini.

  43. Ex says:

    12:21 they’re not “giving you” anything pfffft
    You are there until you aren’t.

  44. Ex says:


    2024 will mark a sorry anniversary for the Republican Party: 20 years since President George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign won both the popular and Electoral College votes. That feat has since eluded three GOP presidential nominees and one incumbent.

    The critical question is, “Are Republicans capable of nominating a winning ticket to halt this embarrassing losing trend?” I doubt it since rapidly changing demographics are reducing the Republicans’ popular vote count in battleground states.

  45. chicagofinance says:

    “ransomware-as-a-service” so good…..

    The Hive favored a ransomware-as-a-service model in which a core group of developers sell their ransomware code to affiliates, who then target victim networks.

    grim says:
    January 26, 2023 at 12:05 pm
    Enron-level grift scam with them, they dump products on you like Watson when you sign an enterprise agreement for a few years and then start billing you on software never used etc.

    This is exactly Google Cloud, and they don’t at all hide it. Hoodwink the C suite to make some massive “enterprise commit” – and then push the org to find ways to use the spend, because it’s now all use it or lose it. Of course, everyone was sold on sizzle, with no real work in understanding how the hell they were going to migrate to even use that spend anyway.

  46. leftwing says:


  47. Fabius Maximus says:

    No One, you should have that paragraph printed on the back of you “I Heart Eugenics” TShirt. IF there is space, you can add some of Lefts.

  48. Fabius Maximus says:

    ” billing for every byte transferred in or out”

    No, its free to get it in, but pulling it out, is expensive and where they get you!

  49. Ex says:


    The elections director of a rural Republican Arizona county that refused to certify the state’s 2022 elections has resigned.

    The Washington Post reported that Lisa Marra, the appointed elections director in Cochise county, will leave the role. The county has not yet confirmed the resignation to the Guardian. Marra could not be reached for comment on Wednesday

    The Post obtained a letter from Marra’s attorney detailing her resignation, which criticized a work environment that had grown “physically and emotionally threatening” with “objectively difficult and unpleasant working conditions”.

    The resignation comes after two Republican members of the county’s board of supervisors, Peggy Judd and Tom Crosby, sought a full hand-count of ballots of the November election, arguing that a hand-count could double-check tabulator results and that tabulator machines were not properly certified, a claim debunked by state elections officials. Marra did not believe a hand-count was warranted or possible, while the supervisors and recorder pushed for it.

  50. Ex says:

    12:27 Sophie’s Choice ?

  51. Fast Eddie says:


    Listening to the lead on “Loving Cup” from the guitarist in Phish, Uniondale ny on 4.3.98. Holy shit, I need to know what his setup is. Geezus, he can jam. BTW, I need your email address again. Sorry.

  52. Ex says:

    Phish is sooooo boring. Have they EVER written a decent song?

  53. Juice Box says:

    Haha AI lawyer threatened with jail if they use the tech in court.


  54. trick says:

    Went to the Great Went and Plattsburg back in the day, friend was a big phish head. I would drag him to my DMB shows.

  55. Juice Box says:

    more info. It was for traffic court…

    A British man who planned to have a “robot lawyer” help a defendant fight a traffic ticket has dropped the effort after receiving threats of possible prosecution and jail time.

    Joshua Browder, the CEO of the New York-based startup DoNotPay, created a way for people contesting traffic tickets to use arguments in court generated by artificial intelligence.

    Here’s how it was supposed to work: The person challenging a speeding ticket would wear smart glasses that both record court proceedings and dictate responses into the defendant’s ear from a small speaker. The system relied on a few leading AI text generators, including ChatGPT and DaVinci.

    The first-ever AI-powered legal defense was set to take place in California on Feb. 22, but not anymore.

    As word got out, an uneasy buzz began to swirl among various state bar officials, according to Browder. He says angry letters began to pour in.

    “Multiple state bar associations have threatened us,” Browder said. “One even said a referral to the district attorney’s office and prosecution and prison time would be possible.”


  56. Ex says:

    Speaking of conquered people/refugees:

    One of Pablo Picasso’s Blue Period paintings is at the center of a lawsuit between a Jewish family and New York’s Guggenheim Museum.
    The heirs of Karl Adler and Rosi Jacobi want the repatriation of the artist’s 1904 masterpiece “Woman Ironing (La repasseuse),” which they claim the couple sold under duress as they attempted to escape persecution by the Nazis in their native Germany in 1938.

    The lawsuit, filed in Manhattan Supreme Court on Friday, states that Adler acquired the work of art in 1916 from Munich gallery owner Heinrich Thannhauser but sold it well below value to Thannhauser’s son, Justin, in 1938 for approximately $1,552. The suit claims that a desperate Adler took the substantial loss due to his family’s circumstances.

    Link: https://www.cnn.com/style/article/guggenheim-picasso-painting-intl-scli/index.html

  57. BananaJoe says:

    The 1619 and other “selective” histories always have the same story. Give us all the power and we’ll be fair. Sure.

    What they don’t say is that slavery is as prevalent now as it always has been. In this case, well guess what, there were multiple waves of migrants over the siberians land bridge. The land was conquered again and again . I guess we have to found it who was actually here first and they get the spoils.

    If they really cared about human exploitation they would be in China and Africa fighting it. But they don’t care unless there is Something in in for them.

  58. Bystander says:


    I will send to Grim. One of my favorite closers. Saw it Hartford 5-6 years back.


    I am not a seller of their music. It is acquired..their early lyrics were gibberish mostly that led to 10m jam. I would say 92 and 93 had Chalkdust Torture, which is rollicking and accessible. Bouncing Around the Room, Fast Enough for You have decent lyrics from album Rift . Believe it or not Alison Krauss sings duet with Trey on If I could on Hoist. Billy Breathes is probably best lyrics album bc Steve Lillywhite (U2 etc) produced it. They need restraint. When they don’t, they produce pretty bad songs. Trey is genius musically but thinks everything is gold when he writes it.

  59. Bystander says:


    Nice. I was attendee as a well at the Went. One of craziest experiences of my life. Have to brush off Bittersweet Motel dvd. Great vague memories but I know Loving Cup was a rocker. Recall rumors that Stones were coming as gas stations on way to Maine. I’ve still never seen so many stars that Caribou ME. Unreal

  60. Ex says:

    4:17 “Sample in a jar” catchy tune.

  61. joyce says:

    That’s pretty funny. I wonder if it was named something other than robot lawyer would they have freaked out [so quickly]? Is it not okay to have a friend (whether lawyer or not) assist with the research and preparation of a trial as long as the pro se defendant presents their argument personally? I might be stretching, but either way, I guess it’s not okay… according to other lawyers.

    Juice Box says:
    January 26, 2023 at 3:03 pm
    more info. It was for traffic court…

    A British man who planned to have a “robot lawyer” help a defendant fight a traffic ticket has dropped the effort after receiving threats of possible prosecution and jail time.

  62. trick says:

    Bystander, the drive up stood out to me most for how long it took, 3 of us packed into my toyota pickup. Happened to be stick which only 2 of us knew how to drive, third guy just got high the entire time.

  63. leftwing says:

    “Are Republicans capable of nominating a winning ticket to halt this embarrassing losing trend?”

    Love liberal reporting….So running simple math on their reporting there were five elections, and Repubs won two….since it’s an odd number it can’t be even so the closest it can be is that someone has to be down by one…and the most recent loss is on the back of a wholesale ad hoc reorganization of the electoral system due to covid….quite the contrary, I would argue if the Repubs could ever pull their heads out of their asses on the election process Dems are fucked…Dems getting out the vote is a well oiled machine, Repubs are running on five of eight cylinders….

    “I Heart Eugenics”

    Don’t melt baby….everything I said were facts…no opinion or even support…and pretty simple facts at that.

    Re: the references to 1938, etc….I’ve spent meaningful time in Israel financing, listing, and selling companies there. Strong appreciation for the Israelis and will always support them….THEY are the model of what I was saying, the primary job of a government being to protect its citizens…Israel beaten up for possessing nukes? Israel: Fuck you. Israel beaten up for repeated cyberattacks at Iran’s Narantz uranium enrichment facility while the US negotiates its continuing operation? Israel: Fuck you.

    They are intent on keeping their people safe and whole, and are among worldwide technological leaders in order to do so….that is what I am talking about.

    Nomadic populations running around in animal skins confronted by another civilization a millennium or two more advanced possessing technology they can neither counter nor understand…well that is just the definition of fucked….amazing any of those bloodlines remain….

  64. Bystander says:

    You are on your way Ex.


    6 of us in a station wagon. Only supposed to be 5. Craziest muscle bound dude jumped in last minute. We found Oregon blues or something when we arrived. Somehow we get separated and I end up as sidekick with the muscle bound guy who has no clue on Phish. I was half amused and half horrified at guys actions. He stole balloons from poor hippies kids hand as we walked by. That kind of guy, a character if you were friends with him. Ending up ODing two years later. What a wild ride

  65. Fabius Maximus says:

    “everything I said were facts”

    The Tucker Carlson defence. Walk up to the line, have a peek over, just don’t take that last step and cross it.

  66. Fabius Maximus says:

    Well this brings some clarity to that whole Italian Satellites changed the voting machines narrative.

    Mrs. Betty Bowers @BettyBowers

    NYT reporting Bill Barr & John Durham got an inconvenient surprise in Italy.
    BARR & DURHAM: “Did you have any role in starting the Trump/Russia investigation?”
    ITALIAN OFFICIALS: “No, but we do have credible evidence of Trump’s financial crimes.”
    Those crimes are still secret.

  67. leftwing says:

    “The Tucker Carlson defence. Walk up to the line, have a peek over, just don’t take that last step and cross it.”

    Ah, and the liberal offense…..you specifically didn’t say something but I can infer your thoughts and therefore you are guilty of saying exactly what you didn’t…

    What did you guys used to call it? Dog whistle? I’ve seen the NYT has dropped that term from its lexicon along with others like Election Denier, etc.

    They must not have polled well stimulating the middle…..

  68. leftwing says:

    And I have no idea what is so controversial by stating that for nearly all of recorded human history stronger, more advanced populations have supplanted – mostly intentionally, often horrifically – weaker populations.

  69. Fabius Maximus says:

    I think we call it a Schrodinger’s Carson where you have a post that can be considered both.

    If one society invents Mathematics and one invents Gunpowder, who is the more advanced?

  70. SmallGovConservative says:

    Great job so far by Speaker McCarthy — keeping promises and restoring integrity. All Americans can sleep a little bit easier thanks to his leadership, knowing that the dishonest stiff Adam Schiff and the compromised, spy-dating schmuck Eric Swalwell, will no longer have access to classified information — and making it clear that antisemitism will not be tolerated by moving to bar awful Ilhan from all committees.

  71. Bystander says:


    I think dumb luck probably had more to due with a weaker population being decimated by “stronger, advanced” population. Chance is a mf-er.

  72. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Remember when plenty of Wall Street analysts were saying that by the end of the year we’d be in a recession?

    It turns out they were wrong.

    Instead, we ended the year with one of the strongest economic recoveries in America history.” Biden

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Boomers: I’d like 2 houses, 3 cars, 3 kids, jet skis, multiple vacations/year & a landline

    Millennials: I’d like to afford 700 SF apt rent & avocado toast

    The fed: woah there partner, kids are finally able to get toast with toppings? That’s excess, we better put a stop to that”

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Battle of new orleans was won by a bunch of rug rats. Bunch of minorities at the time willing to practice some gorilla warfare. Destroyed the British. Best part, war was already over. Communication was a bitch back then. But this was the battle that gave confidence and confirmation that America was real…hence, Jackson going on to become president (a populous president much like trump).

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Jackson actually acted on it…unlike trump. He tried to clean the swamp, and raise the avg joe. Trump blew up the wealthy. His tax plan was rocket fuel for rich assets. Blame the fed all you want, but we (lib and I) said it on this blog…that tax cut was inflationary and pure rocket fuel. Totally distorted the markets.

  76. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Raising taxes= deflationary

    Lowering taxes= inflationary

    Not rocket science …one removes liquidity, while the other increases it.

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And that is out of the Fed’s hands. Pure politics.

  78. Ex says:

    Nearly 32 acres of open land owned by the Catholic Church in Brick will be preserved and a plan to build dozens of houses on the site will be scrapped under a preliminary deal reached Wednesday, county officials said.

    The Ocean County Natural Lands Trust Fund Advisory Committee approved the purchase and preservation of the parcel, known as Breton Woods, during its meeting. The Church of the Visitation in Brick and the Diocese of Trenton own the land, which is between Drum Point and Mantoloking roads.

    The site was under contract with the developer D.R. Horton, a national homebuilder with an office in Mount Laurel, which planned to build 59 single-family homes.

    But, the company’s plans had not yet been approved by the township’s planning board and some residents were fighting to keep the woods undeveloped.

    “We are very pleased that this parcel of land in Brick Township could now remain as open space,” said Ocean County Commissioner Virginia Haines, liaison to the Ocean County Natural Lands Trust Fund.

    “This property meets the requirements of the county’s open space program and will be a benefit to the residents of Brick Township and Ocean County,” she said.

  79. leftwing says:

    PCE no surprises. 10Y no movement on news (3.54 -> 3.53). SPX futes inside pre-announcement range.

    Big yawn. (meaning we’ll probably will be bullish later?)

    Core PCE 4.4% YoY. MoM was o.3%.

    Reiterate, inflation is not an issue. You are watching last year’s Super Bowl if you are expecting meaningful vol out of it.

  80. BananaJoe says:

    In 2010 or possibly later bama opposed same sex marriage. According to the presentism bite of history that make him a bigot worthy of being cancelled.

    It’s all about power. Progressives gain power by destroying. Tear everything down, history, civic instructions, replace it with Marxism where everything is backwards and miserable.

  81. Libturd says:

    Short term, I’m guessing we’ll melt up until either oil prices slow the deflation or the spent consumer finally slows down. Sadly, I have no choice to start scaling back in.

    Powell will get the next man of the year for orchestrating the soft landing. Then the bottom will fall out. :P

  82. leftwing says:

    Fabs, I hesitate to type the following as I start to wander into territory that I accuse the Left, ie. imputing intent when none is stated. Anyway, since you are quite forward on here viewing events through race I will say that nothing I wrote has anything to do race notwithstanding the OP referenced ‘White Europeans’. My statements – on weaker populations being overrun historically by stronger populations – has been experienced by all races upon each other and across racial lines.

    “If one society invents Mathematics and one invents Gunpowder, who is the more advanced?”

    One branch of science was required to invent gunpowder and another branch of science required to effectively weaponize it, no?

    My response is a bit tautological…the most advanced is by definition the one who wins. Yes, chance may play a role, bad actors may be present, etc. but ATEOTD if you are on top…

    Similar to football…One team may be better and a blown call in the end zone may prevent their advancement to the Super Bowl or another team may have a cheater as a coach and hit the lotto with the 199th draft pick for quarterback but at the end of the day all that is noise…the team hoisting the trophy over its head, well, advanced.

  83. leftwing says:

    “I think we call it a Schrodinger’s Carson where you have a post that can be considered both.”

    Nice play on words, I respect that…and the two statements were really not even in opposition…

    F. Scott Fitzgerald:

    “Before I go on with this short history, let me make a general observation– the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.

    One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless and yet be determined to make them otherwise. This philosophy fitted on to my early adult life, when I saw the improbable, the implausible, often the “impossible,” come true.”

  84. Ex says:

    One of the enduring mysteries surrounding the chaotic attempts to overturn Donald Trump’s defeat in the 2020 presidential battle has been solved: who made a secret $1m donation to the controversial election “audit” in Arizona?

    The identity of one of the largest benefactors behind the discredited review of Arizona’s vote count has been shrouded in secrecy. Now the Guardian can reveal that the person who partially bankrolled the failed attempt to prove that the election was stolen from Trump was … Trump.

  85. leftwing says:

    Interesting upcoming weekend chi…Harvard could potentially drop two, Red needs two can’t afford to drop either…why do I feel so queasy about tonight’s Dartmouth game lol…keep the other eye on the NMU/Tech games and Big Ten…those are the teams potentially supplanting Red if they stumble….

  86. Libturd says:

    I am about 70/30 now. Lordy help me.

  87. Phoenix says:

    Happens every day. She must have pissed someone off and they tattled on her:

    Ronna McDaniel is coming under even more fire for alleged frivolous spending as insiders claim she’s using donor money as a ‘personal piggybank’ – amid revelations the Republican National Conference spent nearly half-a-million dollars on her luxury Washington, D.C. apartment and another $75,000 on beauty and spa services.

    Since McDaniel’s tenure began in 2017, RNC donors have funded $17,689.34 for the chairwoman’s spa days at the About Face Beauty Spa just 30-minutes from her home in Michigan.

    All of the payments, ranging from a low of $325 to a high of $1,350, were labeled as ‘media preparations.’

    Another $54,852.63 was spent on ‘media preparations’ throughout the country, likely hair, makeup, nails and other beauty services.

  88. leftwing says:

    You’re long 70% of your portfolio now? In what, indices?

    Took the opportunity of the GOOG runup to throw on a diagonal hedge covering earnings…if she runs back down to 90 (ten points from spot, market says movement will only be 5.50) I’ll make more on the hedge than I will on the underlying position…diagonal preserves value in the hedge if she goes the other way, ie. won’t offset my returns as badly….otherwise, I’m noodling around college hockey news lol.

  89. Chicago says:

    Bed, Bath & Bankrupt

  90. Chicago says:

    It’s called leptokurtosis.

    leftwing says:
    January 27, 2023 at 9:09 am
    One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless and yet be determined to make them otherwise. This philosophy fitted on to my early adult life, when I saw the improbable, the implausible, often the “impossible,” come true.”

  91. leftwing says:

    Big battle going on in RNC….recall, you think your vote matters but it does only to the extent the RNC/DNC wants it to….they control the majority of the actual purse strings, donor influence, get out the vote, etc especially for primaries in your safe seats (which are ‘gimees’ obviously).

    McDaniel is old guard, not necessarily Bush/Romney wing but certainly not newer wing…Dhillon is challenger that DeSantis backed recently…vote is today, Dhillon still underdog, who knows what McDaniel will promise/yard sale to keep the role…

    Everyone has a soft underbelly, remember that if you’re ever in a real dispute…it is technically not permitted if not illegal to use these outside ‘considerations’ in a court proceeding (I know, I have a letter from opposing counsel advising me of such lol)…but….

  92. Chicago says:

    Libturd: Not questioning your tactics. I am questioning your risk management budget given your timeline.

    Also, have you extinguished “loss aversion bias” successfully so your FOMO is equally at bay.

    To be clear, I respect the discipline.

    You are strong minded.

  93. Chicago says:

    Just saw the author interviewed on Bloomberg. I am going to give it a read. Only 140 pages. A little pricey. Eh


  94. Chicago says:

    Left: Wondering exactly what is Colgate too.

  95. leftwing says:

    “The Bill of Obligations
    The Ten Habits of Good Citizens”

    Looks good Chi…contributory, common goals, shared vision, commitment….

    Good luck…Lib still can’t avoid getting run off the road by some three lane Jersey slider on the Parkway and I just witnessed some well groomed twenty something nearly knock grandma down to beat her to the coffee line….if we can’t even fix personal items that basic then count me doubtful that a new citizen-centric compact to others’ in our democracy has a snowball’s chance….

  96. Ex says:

    10:47 …….or 2/3rds of Corporate Sales jobs.

  97. leftwing says:

    yeah, chi, not a fan of playing teams back-to-back with Colgate, notwithstanding last weekend with QPac…just feel there’s too much probability of a split with too high an opportunity we come up on the short end…much prefer back-to-back with say Brown…let opponents beat the hell out of them, get the W, get sloppy then we swoop in for the W…

  98. Fabius Maximus says:

    “the team hoisting the trophy over its head, well, advanced.”
    Thats where we differ, I view that as a pyrrhic response. Brady and Belichick won the trophies but will be always labeled as cheats. ARod will never see the inside of the HoF. I don’ look at this from a pure race point of view. I look at the person and the actions behind.

    I’ll see your quote and give you Marcus.

    “He does only what is his to do, and considers constantly what the world
    has in store for him—doing his best, and trusting that all is for the best. For
    we carry our fate with us—and it carries us.
    He keeps in mind that all rational things are related, and that to care for
    all human beings is part of being human. Which doesn’t mean we have to
    share their opinions. We should listen only to those whose lives conform to
    nature. And the others? He bears in mind what sort of people they are—
    both at home and abroad, by night as well as day—and who they spend
    their time with. And he cares nothing for their praise—men who can’t even
    meet their own standards.”

    Memento Mori!

  99. Libturd says:


    In our 401Ks:
    20% Small Cap
    20% Large Cap Growth (FDGRX)
    20% S&P
    10% international
    30% stable bond fund

    In our IRAs:
    Mainly a mix of SPY, QQQ, VUG, VBR and SCHD

    529 I moved into a target fund in December of 2021.

    Still have a ton of taxable in banks making a guaranteed 4%-5%. Though a lot of those promotions free up in the next 30 days. I have around 10 checking accounts now. :P

    Do to the lack of clarity on the markets, I am not quite ready to employ taxable capital as the potential taxes on short-term gains (and losses) would make it very difficult to succeed and minimize risk.

    I focus on my biases more than the fundamentals of the investments I purchase. :P

    As to the second-to-die insurance versus just being disciplined about building my own trust to pay for “the D.” The prices I am getting are stupid. On a million dollar death benefit, they want $27.6K a year. At a 6% return, if I invested the $27.6K a year myself compounded monthly, I would have a million in 19.5 years and would end up with $2.3 million in 30 years. I have average more than doubled this annual rate since 2000. But to be safe, I’ll use 8% as my expected return. This works out to about $1,600 a month. We still have 1.5 million in term life for another three years. So the only thing we lose by saving $700 a month doing it ourselves would be the big payout if somehow both of us die before I am 72 and Gator is 70. Of course, after 15 years, do to compounding, the big payout occurs either way. Your advice was good. Have not checked rates yet with SBLI.

  100. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Only 140 pages. A little pricey. Eh”

    Its free from the library.

  101. Boomer Remover says:

    VIX to $15?

  102. Libturd says:

    “Its free from the library.”

    For now.

  103. chicagofinance says:

    Fabius Maximus says:
    January 27, 2023 at 11:39 am
    Memento Mori!


  104. Fabius Maximus says:

    To get people up to speed.

    Centrist 🤝Madness @CentristMadness
    So the guy at the FBI office investigating Hillary that leaked to a Republican and forced the Comey letter to happen was also collaborating with an oligarch he was supposed to investigate. Is that about the size of it twitter.com/washingtonpost…

    But it gets better, bring on Rudy and the Bunny Boiler.


  105. Fabius Maximus says:


    Cynic in me says its a cash grab. Into the studio as fast than ACDC after Bon Scott.
    Let’s see if it can match Back in Black.

  106. trick says:

    Only band I saw from that genre was the Cure out in Nassau, would have like to see more.

  107. Ex says:

    10:47 old guard as in Romney’s niece. She apparently treated the office like a personal piggy bank.

  108. Boomer Remover says:

    I watched a short investigative Vice piece on US servicemen who posted incredibly sensitive materials to Chegg, the study & cliff notes website.

    Actual study notes for exams for nuclear launch technicians were saved to digital flash cards which were uploaded and saved to Chegg, without the proper privacy radio box checked. This stuff was out there for all to see. You can’t make this stuff up!

    Another took a photo of his entire crew in front of nuclear armed misses and posted it to Facebook, under his real name. Took the Bellingcat guy all of fifteen minutes using Google maps to narrow it down to the exact silo/hangar they were standing in front of.

    FFS. Digital literacy should be a subject taught in schools.

    Also, if you’re ever in Phoenix the Titan Missle Museum in Tuscon is worth a day trip.

  109. Phoenix says:

    Can’t insert a central line, do a Gamma nail, or removed a tightly wedged butt plug just yet. Guess I still have job security for a little while at least.

    ChatGPT, the revolutionary AI software taking the internet by storm, could soon put millions out of work by making white collar jobs obsolete, experts have warned.

    In the law exam essay questions, the bot was able to accurately recite legal rules and correctly describe cases.

    ChatGPT also recently scored higher than many humans on an MBA exam at Penn’s elite Wharton School, where it received a respectable B- grade.

    Among the job fields that could soon become dominated by the artificial intelligence includes finance, graphic design and education.

    One industry that is in particular danger is tech and software design, a field that has already been rocked in recent times as Silicon Valley has undergone massive staff layoffs.

  110. Phoenix says:

    FFS. Digital literacy should be a subject taught in schools.

    You can’t teach GAF. They don’t GAF.

    I know plenty that don’t GAF about pretty much anything. And they are licensed.

  111. Ex says:

    Let the chatbots teach. Fewer and fewer people actually want the job.

  112. Ex says:



    As teacher dissatisfaction rates rise and concerns about teacher shortages intensify, colleges of education are sounding the alarm: Enrollment has been steadily declining for the past decade, and the pandemic has likely made things worse.
    The American Association of Colleges for Teacher Education released its second comprehensive report of the state of teacher preparation on Tuesday afternoon, noting the many challenges facing the teaching profession—and some of the ways colleges are adapting. The report uses the most-recent federal data, which are from the 2018-19 school year, providing a benchmark on the status of teacher preparation before the disruption of the coronavirus pandemic.
    The downward trend has been consistent. Between the 2008-09 and the 2018-19 academic years, the number of people completing a teacher-education program declined by almost a third. Traditional teacher-preparation programs saw the largest decline—35 percent—but alternative programs experienced drops, too.


  113. Libturd says:


    Just got a more detailed whole life insurance quote.

    1,500,000 = $2,269.83 monthly
    $1,000,000 = $1,514.67 monthly
    $750,000 = $1,137.09 monthly

    That middle one is pretty darn close to my do it yourself numbers. Of course, If I Gator and I croke in under twenty years we win. The real issue is, if we live to say to be 80. The policy will only be worth 1.5 million and we’ll have to keep paying $1514 a month in perpetuity to eventually leave the money to our kid. If we do it ourselves, after 30 years, it’s worth 2.25 million and we could stop paying anytime we want. Still a no brainer. Will do it ourselves.

  114. chicagofinance says:

    Most exams are about retention and application. By definition, AI has perfect retention, so at a minimum, a mediocre response with perfect source data will create a B.

    Phoenix says:
    January 27, 2023 at 2:52 pm
    ChatGPT also recently scored higher than many humans on an MBA exam at Penn’s elite Wharton School, where it received a respectable B- grade.

  115. Phoenix says:

    Heroes in blue at it again.

    A hat tip to all of the engineers at Motorola who have worked on and designed the cameras that are giving us the excellent video recordings of the truth. You are truly the angels that allow us to see what really happens-and not the lies that escape the lips of satan.

  116. Chicago says:

    Left: Allston has turned out to be huge. Colgate is real.

Comments are closed.