Just the beginning?

From DSNews:

January Foreclosure Filings Up 36% YoY

Foreclosure volume continues in America, with year-end totals reaching 31,557, which includes default notices, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions, a 36% increase compared to the previous year. The numbers reported in January 2022 represent a 2% increase compared to December 2021.

Nationwide, one in every 4,425 housing units had a foreclosure filing in January 2023.

“The uptick in overall foreclosure filings nationwide points toward a trend that may suggest more increased activity is on the horizon as we enter the new year,” said Rob Barber, the CEO at ATTOM, the real estate data conglomerate that produced the January 2023 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. “While both completed foreclosures and foreclosure starts have stalled slightly over the past month, the annual increase in overall activity seen over the past 21 months may indicate a more substantial trend that could continue into 2023.”

States with the highest overall foreclosure rates were Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland.

Metro areas Fayetteville, North Carolina; Bakersfield, California; Cleveland; Detroit; and Laredo, Texas reported the most foreclosure activity.

Other than Cleveland and Detroit, among the metropolitan areas with a population greater than one million, January’s highest foreclosure activity included Chicago; Riverside, California; and Las Vegas.

Foreclosure completions declined in January for the first time since June 2021, the company reported.

Florida, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, and Texas reported the greatest annual decreases in complete foreclosures.

Only three states—New York, Pennsylvania, and California—bucked the trend with an increase in REOs.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Risky Lending. Bookmark the permalink.

129 Responses to Just the beginning?

  1. dentss dunniga says:


  2. dentss dunnigan says:

    Quiet a show for the plebeian last nite ….

  3. Hold my beer says:

    Lib and 3b

    When you bought laptops direct from Lenovo, what kind of extended warranty did you get if any?

  4. leftwing says:

    Reading this and seeing the reference to banks ‘working with’ CRE borrowers and keys being handed over it brought back a memory of that actually happening and I realized how long ago that last downturn was….


  5. Libturd says:

    Don’t ever get them. Some credit cards still double the standard warranty. That is enough. I’m on my 6th Lenovo now (I buy about one a year). Never even a broken key or a pixel out. Just maintain your battery or you will be replacing it in under two years (for about $30, through alibaba.

  6. Libturd says:

    It’s beginning to feel a lot like last time. (housing)

  7. Boomer Remover says:

    Lib – You didn’t strike me as the type of guy who buys a new laptop every year. Why?

  8. 3b says:

    Hold: No extended warranty for me either. It will only get light use.

  9. Libturd says:

    Family of five. Work from home. There’s always an excuse to buy one and they are cheap. For example, my son’s high school Chromebook is pathetic. It was two years old when he got it in 9th grade. It is so slow, he is better off doing his homework in a college ruled notebook. So I gave him my last one (which was ultra-portable since it had like an 11″ screen) which I couldn’t get used to since it was too small. It was a beauty too. With a built in cloth cover, touch screen, 12-hour battery, etc. It was a return (never used). So I tend to pass my old one’s down to Gator, my BIL, my dad, etc. I spend so much time on my laptop when I’m out of work and my work computers limit what I can install on them. For $500 to $1,000 a year for a very powerful laptop, I can justify the spending.

    This is my latest which I bought in November for around $800 with all of my crazy discounts.


  10. Chicago says:

    We are 82 bps inverted.
    2Y 455
    We have US bills or stubs in the 6-9 month range approaching 5%.

  11. Chicago says:

    Anecdotal evidence that used car prices rising. CPI is starting to possibly come in hot.

  12. 3b says:

    Chgo: Bloomberg had an article late last week, that used car prices are in fact starting to rise again; part of the reason higher borrowing rates for more expensive new cars, so people buying used again.

  13. Libturd says:

    I’m not seeing a CPI surprise tomorrow. A lot of core stuff feels like its dropping or stabilized. I’m just not seeing the price increases we were seeing most of last year. Fuel prices dropped dramatically and that should increase the margin on most products without needing to raise prices. Heck saw fuel with 2 handles in South Jersey all last month. Even egg prices have returned to earth.

    If I’m wrong, I may have to “pivot” back out. Which would be annoying to say the least.

    3b, Yes, new cars are simply too expensive, which is why I expected them to come down in price after used cars came down in price. Especially if there’s a glut of new cars.

  14. Libturd says:

    Check out this bathroom in a Las Vegas home I’ve been watching.


    I have a feeling, that bathroom alone will keep this house on the market for a long, long time. Shame too, as $10 worth of paint would fix it.

  15. Boomer Remover says:

    re: car pricing

    My $150 per month 2020 Ioniq EV lease ends this summer. The $21K no sales tax buyout seems like a no brainer, but I keep going back and forth about buying out, or adding $10K or so and getting a next gen product.

  16. 3b says:

    Lib: I don’t know about food prices coming down all that much, I went food shopping the other day, and did not see much of a difference. We shall see on tomorrow s number.

  17. Boomer Remover says:

    Seeing as how they make the majority of their money from memberships, Costco is actively buffering at least some of the inflationary costs. Those cage free eggs are still 24 for $7.50.

  18. Bystander says:

    Per Walmart, the greed won’t stop itself. Had three families over for SB and all now shopping at Aldi’s. Shoprite, Stop & Shop etc have allowed corps to price themselves out of competition. Only fools would do major shopping at large brand, retail grocers.

    But now with the cost of cardboard cases declining by 40-50%, the cost of transportation falling by 25-30% and the cost of raw materials declining significantly, “retailers like Walmart will say ‘hey you already had three rounds of price hikes last year, why are you giving us another?'” said Burt Flickinger, managing director at retail consulting firm Strategic Resource Group.

  19. Libturd says:

    Updated my chart again adding the FFR and the FEDs total assets. It’s an interesting mess.


  20. Bystander says:

    On SB itself, can’t be any happier that the Eagles lost the way they did. Absolute pain until last sec.

    Chris Stapleton was absolutely amazing on SSB. His voice is a national treasure. Few artists can bridge soul and country with originality and authenticity. He does it quite naturally.

  21. Fast Eddie says:


    +1 on Chris Stapleton and the Eagles losing.

  22. 3b says:

    Bystander: I will have to take a trip to Aldi s, have not been there in some time. Shop rite is just more convenient for me, I do t find their bowl and basket generic brand any cheaper for the most part.

  23. Bystander says:

    Can we also shut down Faux News? Walking into store yesterday with my 2 kids and 65 year old, red hat gray beard screams top of lungs as ‘Wake up, they shot down another balloon. We are at war with communist China…wake up people” . He screamed at nobody except my young sons..lunatics. That network is the worst piece of garbage, creating mentally-ill panic-induced sh*t for brains.

  24. Ex says:

    11:11 Daily Mail exhibit B. Murdoch has enriched himself shoveling “shit” into the brains
    Of “readers”. That old boomer has done more damage to civilization than nearly anything.

  25. Juice Box says:

    Tomorrow’s CPI will be the first time it is reported calculated using the new methodology of consumption data from just 1 year of expenditure data from 2021 only.


  26. Phoenix says:

    Walmart looking like the good guy?

    Seems like only China and Walmart are looking out for average Americans, trying to keep prices down.

    Just look at American housing, Americans hate each other, can’t wait to steal every last dime from each other, like a school of rabid piranhas.

  27. Juice Box says:

    War with China? I thought we passed peak balloonacy. Wake me up when the iPhones stop shipping, last I checked the Foxconn factory in China that employs workers at $2 a hour is still churning out tens of thousands of iPhones a day.

  28. Phoenix says:

    Time to buy a rail tank car full of Clorox, and charge people thirty cents to fill a gallon, still turn a profit. We can park it on a siding in Wayne NJ.

    Or better yet, a rail tank car full of cheap booze. Same siding, Wayne NJ.

    “Shoppers at chains such as Walmart and Kroger were waiting longer to buy new products like bleach and kitty litter, and in some cases trading down to buy smaller sizes, or larger wholesale quantities because they want more value per unit, Clorox’s CFO Kevin Jacobsen said February 2.”

    After raising prices four times in 2022, he said, Clorox doesn’t “have any additional plans” to hike prices this year.

  29. Fast Eddie says:

    Just look at American housing, Americans hate each other, can’t wait to steal every last dime from each other, like a school of rabid piranhas.

    Interesting… people don’t want to sell and buy a similar place with double the interest rate and buyers are straining to buy limited selections, keeping the price high and higher. A catch 22 situation. It’ll be this way for a number of years, sort of like the front lines during WWI.

  30. Phoenix says:

    The day Iphones stop shipping Americans start chugging Keppra.

  31. Bystander says:

    Same hear 3B. SR is close and longer hours. It was great during pandemic as ghost town at 9:45 and could pop-in. I will still go for a few items but very little at this point. Their basic pharmacy brands are still damn good, compared to absurdity of CVS. I know sales can be good but don’t have large pantry so I don’t buy tons in advance. TJs is a little closer but just can’t get everything there that kids eat. Aldi’s is a little farther but like 3m difference. It makes sense now, given the literal 80% savings across many staples. Lucky we have it all in 4 mile radius.

    No frills, no customer service, no bags, no even a smile from cashier..get your food and GTFO..that is the Aldi way. I

  32. Fast Eddie says:

    That old boomer has done more damage to civilization than nearly anything.

    Awww… leave slo joe alone, he’s sickly.

  33. Phoenix says:

    Now that was funny.

    And true.

  34. DustFarter says:

    You two are a perfect example of functional retardation.

  35. Hold my beer says:

    Thanks Lib and 3b. I will have to check my credit card to see which one doubles the warranty.

  36. Hold my beer says:

    Should I get 1 TB or 2 TB in the new laptop. Is 2 TB worth the extra $200-$250?

  37. Hold my beer says:

    Libturd would be proud of me. I’ve been wanting to get a nice acoustic guitar since the summer. I was looking at Martins in the $900-$1,100 range. Found a used Taylor in a local Guitar Center for $1,299 in great condition that is $1,700-$1,900 brand new. It’s even made in California. I think someone bought it over the pandemic and rarely touched it. And I got them to take another 10% off when I went to pay for it.

  38. Ex says:

    11:54 Very inexpensive $ for that much storage. Much like BHP in a car, or memory in a computer …you can never have enough memory. anything that you store “away from the cloud” goes on your drive.

  39. Hold my beer says:

    I get lots of basics at Aldi. We have a natural grocer in our area called Sprouts. I go there a few times a week and only buy the sale items. Routinely get lots of stuff buy 1 get 1 free. I also check their meat section. 2 days before the sell by date they mark the meat down 40% off and its easy to spot since they slap a big yellow label on it. I get grass fed steaks and roasts almost every time doing that.

  40. Juice Box says:

    Terabyte is usually plenty unless you have a massive video or music collection. If there is an additional slot in the laptop for a second SSD M2 memory card you can usually easily add one cheaper. Cost is something like $60 a terabyte at the low end.


  41. Juice Box says:

    Hmart opening at 35,000 sq ft store the American Dream mall in East Rutherford.

    Never thought there would be an Asian-style grocery store in a mega mall. I mean that places charges $5 per to park your car.

  42. DustFarter says:

    9:45 you know what else comes in hot…?
    Ur mom

  43. Libturd says:

    On the drive, it really depends on what you plan to do with the laptop. I have two 2 TB traditional WD drives that are a clone of each other that I bought about 10 years ago for $100 for the two. Unless you produce video or a lot of music, you will not fill 2 TB in your lifetime. All of my music is in the cloud for free at Amazon Music and YouTube. If I want to listen, I just stream it as it plays. All of my photos from birth till now are saved for free on Verizon Cloud and Google Photo as well as on those two drives. I don’t need to explain why I have two drives. Just stick with what’s included and you’ll do fine. If you are hellbent on SSD drives, https://www.dealnews.com/products/Western-Digital/1-TB-My-Passport-Go-USB-3-0-Portable-SSD/238754.html
    Retailmenot will give you another 5% off and use a business credit card that gives you 4% back for office supplies. You’ll get it for $80. 99% of the population won’t fill a TB.

  44. Libturd says:

    HMB, nice on the guitar. For instruments, pawn shops are often the goto.

  45. Ex says:

    12:45 naw. I got a guy.

    Hasn’t changed his website since 1995. It shows.
    Treasures on sale there. They come set-up. Not neglected.

    ChrisGuitars (dot) com

    Upstate NY

  46. 3b says:

    Car insurance rates have increased almost 14 percent over the past year, and are expected to continue to increase going forward.

  47. Boomer Remover says:

    Are we in the “return to normal” phase of the bubble graphic? Sure feels like it.

  48. Libturd says:

    I’m kind of excited about having an HMart close by. We buy a lot of stuff from them whenever we are near one. Family likes pho and ramen a lot so not only do we buy the fresh noodles, but the fish balls, the seaweed, some fresh greens, etc. Their marinated beef and pork for bulgogi is often a good deal as well. I love fatty salmon and it’s one of the only places I know that carries it.

  49. Jeannette Wall says:


    Re: Vegas home – Did you notice the Bradley Beach pillow on the lounge chair in the bedroom?

  50. Libturd says:

    I really didn’t look closely. That’s funny. Bradley Beach is where my family swam in the 70s, when they still had the pool. We are still probably a year or so away. Just looking for some coal that we can mold into a diamond at this point. It’s still to soon. Vegas properties move up and down like a rollercoaster. Now, would not be the time to buy.

  51. Old realtor says:

    REO business has changed completely since I got into it in the late 1980s. Commissions are now low and required work, inspections and reports are voluminous. Every company hiring agents to handle their REO work has caps on the number of properties assigned to any individual agent. What was once a very rewarding field has become a tough way to earn a living.

  52. Juice Box says:

    In that Vegas house with the ugly bathroom there is a Rutgers University Hat in the closet too.

  53. Old realtor says:

    When I started going to sheriff sales in the early 1980s there were only a handful of bidders attending sales. Now in Bergen, Hudson and Essex it is common to see 100 or more bidders attend a sale.

    Currently in North Jersey most counties are selling no more than a handful of properties each week with most properties being bought back by the plaintiff. Last week Bergen had a busy week. Eight properties were auctioned and 3 were bought by outside bidders.

  54. Libturd says:

    You guys have eagle eyes.

  55. Juice Box says:

    Lib that house is pretty close to the airport maybe a mile and half to the edge of the runways. You want to be away from the airport otherwise day and night noise. You can probably seem them taking off and landing from the backyard too. There is also a street light in the backyard pic. That would bother me to no end as it probably shines into the bedrooms all night.

  56. chicagofinance says:

    Ex – what do you think of the new Depeche Mode?

    DustFarter says:
    February 13, 2023 at 12:43 pm
    9:45 you know what else comes in hot…?
    Ur mom

  57. Libturd says:

    I noticed the airport proximity. As you get old, and you lose your hearing, it won’t matter much. Seriously, this house was just an example. We don’t need 3000 sq. feet.

  58. Ex says:

    2:42 me likey….checked out seats for the SF concert.
    Kinda pricey….

  59. leftwing says:

    “We are 82 bps inverted.”

    Fed funds futures are priced higher at year end 2023 than now. Market coming around to JPow.

    “Anecdotal evidence that used car prices rising. CPI is starting to possibly come in hot.”

    Seeing the prices too. Big question, hot relative to what…[whisper] expectations obviously, good luck divining…forecasts showing MoM on both headline and core up, 60bps on headline and 10bps on core…that’s new, not sure if that’s because of the calc change Juice notes…

    +2 on KC and ripping out the Eagles fans hearts the way it happened.

  60. BRT says:

    At Hmart, their seafood is fantastic. I go there for tuna, shark, shrimp, squid, octopus and cuttlefish. They have good prices on lobster as well, $7.99 a pound.

  61. Libturd says:

    Yeah. So much live seafood. Their shrimp is incredible.

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Investors have pulled a net $31 billion from U.S. equity mutual funds and ETFs in the past six weeks: Refinitiv Lipper data through Wednesday. That’s the most money pulled in aggregate from domestic equity funds to start a year since 2016.


  63. leftwing says:

    Harvard and northeastern tied in the bean pot final after regulation chi!

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The shift is a sign that even for technology companies that earlier in the pandemic embraced remote work, in-person work and central offices will play a role going forward. Activision Blizzard Inc., publisher of videogames such as “Call of Duty,” on Monday became the latest company to step up its in-office policy, notifying some employees that they would need to report to offices three days a week beginning in April.

    The game giant’s move follows that of Walt Disney Co., which said it would require workers to come to its offices four days a week beginning in March. Other employers, including financial giant Vanguard Group, have pushed employees in recent weeks to adhere to existing hybrid-work schedules, often at three days a week.
    Last year, Walmart’s Mr. Kumar announced plans to open new tech hubs in Atlanta and Toronto and plans to add thousands more staff to his team, which he said was around 20,000 people globally. Before the closures, the company had 11 tech hubs in the U.S. and six abroad, according to its website.
    Walmart has about 1.7 million U.S. workers, the majority hourly staff in stores and warehouses, and about 0.6 million other staff abroad. It recently announced plans to raise its minimum U.S. store wages, amid a tight job market for hourly workers.
    Earlier in the pandemic, Mr. Kumar told its corporate technology staff that remote work would stick around longer than in other parts of the organization. The group aimed to make “virtual work the new normal for Global Technology,” Mr. Kumar said in a LinkedIn post in the spring of 2020. “We’ve decided that even as restrictions are lifted and other groups in Walmart eventually return to their offices, we will take our time, and think about how we can invent the workspace of the future.”

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Cash-only businesses either:

    1) Don’t understand business

    2) Are cheating on their taxes


  66. Bystander says:

    First..post dufus rambling

  67. 1987 Condo says:

    CPI: +.5

    YOY: 6.4% vs expected 6.2%

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That rambling was from a WSJ article…again, I understand the difference between short term-trends and long-term trends. That’s why I didn’t jump on board the “burbs are dead” movement last decade. That’s why I didn’t jump on the “remote is the future” movement. I knew it was not sustainable long-term, and we are starting to already see companies realize this. It will be a part of the workforce in a hybrid role, but truth is, to have a successful business in a highly competitive market, you can’t have your workforce working from home….it will destroy your company over time esp against its in-person workforce.

  69. Chicago says:

    The tbills pieced 5%!!!

  70. Chicago says:


  71. Chicago says:

    85 bps inverted

  72. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Amazon’s new self-driving robotaxis may soon be hitting public roads

    Robots already deliver us packages and pizzas. Now, Amazon is ready to take the concept to another level.

    Amazon’s self-driving vehicle unit known as Zoox has successfully tested its robotaxi on a public road using employees as passengers.

    The robotaxi uses no steering wheel or pedals and its has room for four passengers.

    It also has four-wheel steering, enabling it to change directions without the need to reverse.

    Amazon said they have dozens of the fully autonomous vehicles ready to hit the road. An exact rollout date is unknown.

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Well, this will destroy the stock market. No way can stocks compete.

    Chicago says:
    February 14, 2023 at 8:47 am
    The tbills pieced 5%!!!

  74. Ex says:

    Nimrata Nikki Randhawa Haley

  75. Ex says:

    Nimrata (Gurmukhi: ਨਿਮਰਤਾ nimaratā) is an important virtue that is vigorously promoted by Gurbani and Sikh history. The literal translation of this Punjabi word is “Humility”, or “Benevolence”.

  76. Chicago says:

    Fuck you douchebag. Zero risk.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    February 14, 2023 at 8:55 am
    Well, this will destroy the stock market. No way can stocks compete.

    Chicago says:
    February 14, 2023 at 8:47 am
    The tbills pieced 5%!!!

  77. Chicago says:

    Sub 20 vix. I swear, WTF?

  78. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Don’t Count on China to Save the World Economy
    The world is counting on an economic bounceback from China to power global growth and help keep recession at bay. Don’t bank on it (https://economics.cmail19.com/t/d-l-zdyitdy-yuujlhllik-d/). China’s recovery after years of Covid-19 lockdowns will likely look a lot different from previous ones. And for many parts of the world, economists warn, it could be less potent than governments and businesses hope. China has historically relied on government stimulus and heavy investment to power itself out of slumps. That mix helped yank the global economy out of the doldrums after the 2008 financial crisis. This time, China is deeply in debt, its housing market is in distress, and much of the infrastructure the country needs
    is already built, Jason Douglas and Stella Yifan Xie report.

    China’s latest revival will be led by consumers, who are casting off almost three years of public-health restrictions and travel bans after the government abruptly dismantled its zero-tolerance policy toward Covid-19. Official data suggest the strongest growth will come from service industries such as restaurants, bars and travel. That means that while an accelerating China is good news for fragile global growth, the direct effects of its revival will likely be less pronounced elsewhere than in the stimulus-led expansions of the past.

  79. The Great Pumpkin says:


    I was being serious. Giant sucking sound of capital from the stock market to the bond market if it keeps going higher.

  80. 3b says:

    Bystander: 3 years into remote/ hybrid, it’s clear it’s not some passing trend, and that ultimately everyone will be back in the office, brain storming and being creative. As you and I and others know, productivity , meeting deadlines, deliverables is what companies care about and determines success or failure. Will the office go away completely, no, but it will just be a tool among others, and it won’t determine the success or failure of a company. Opining on how bad remote/ hybrid is and wishing for a return to the past, and having absolutely no personal reference points to even have a reasonable opinion is just pissing in the wind. Those that know, they know,

  81. Bystander says:

    Yes, Ex..I just had “nimrata” totally f* 2 years of work this weekend. Our business did not a person available to test in Hong Kong on Sunday then did not want to escalate it or disturb their weekend. They asked to rollback changes for another weekend. Nimrata allows for this stuff. Guys worked nearlt 24 hours straight. I was ready to battle. Wake the f-er up..but rest of team said nimrata ie “yes sir may I have another”

  82. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Give it up already. The trend has switched. We are slowly moving away from letting the majority of workers create their own schedule and work as they please from home. Wake up and smell the coffee. You have to come in to have a good job. 4 day work weeks will be the norm, and if you are lucky, you get 3 day work week. They will be rare as economy hits a recession, and companies require all hands on deck to survive.

    Do you realize yet that all that free money you cry about created the environment for most workers to demand they get to wfh? Companies were flush with cash and more worried about spending that money on growth even if it didn’t lead to more profit. All this created the perfect storm combined with lock downs to create a remote workforce. That ballon poppped and is slowly deflating.

  83. leftwing says:

    lol, not breaking your balls but I have no idea what 9:42a is, may as well be in sanskrit for me.

    “Sub 20 vix. I swear, WTF?”

    Vol crush post binary market moving event. Vol was going to go down this morning in nearly any case but the most extreme, issue is/was the starting point, no?

    Market sorting itself out…lots of puts bought with IV crush on a non-apocalyptic print was going to result in buying by dealers given their positioning. Still early morning.

  84. Bystander says:

    Agree 3b, it purely old dinosaur control. Boomers and early Gen X who just want to see and manage minions. I think once a week in office is useful if every decision maker is present. Once you get into half in office while half on other side of world via Teams, there is no point.

    Have to tell you my Citi interview. Unlike any I ever had, the guy joined and called it ‘speed dating’ 30m and the first 15 was literally him saying ”here is reason you don’t want this role’ . It was for SVP Agile Product manager in Finance. Told me they tried with contractors and they quit. Gee, you mean those 75/hr bs jobs I got a year ago? Shocking Guy was over the top honest. Last mention was that final round is 3 hr onsite critical delivery scenario assessment. Umm, no thanks to this one. Citi is a mess

  85. 3b says:

    Bystander: I agree, I know family/ friends back in the office( only one everyday as he chooses too), and it’s teams and zoom meetings just like home, but with the added distraction of people interrupting. People, are entitled to their opinions of course , but the opinions on WFH/ hybrid should be based on personal experience. Lecturing people on how bad it is and it’s going to stop ( 3 years into it), makes no sense when you can’t speak personally to it. But , whatever, that won’t change. The Citi thing sounds awful, better off staying where you are.

  86. Libturd says:

    “85 bps inverted”

    Normally, I’d be like, grabbing an oxygen mask with that print. But regardless of the ever increasing FFR, stubborn inflation, the slow disbursements of the assets on the Treasuries balance sheet and so on and so on, the world knows that the foundation for our longer term market’s future is brighter than it’s probably ever been since perhaps, post WWII. Of course, in the short run, yield must be higher due to this risk.

    We are witnessing a pretty incredible textbook study occurring in real time. The resiliency of the American consumer when facing these current short-term headwinds of rapidly rising borrowing rates, rapidly rising housing costs, rapidly rising food and energy costs is absolutely brilliant. Until it’s not. But day by day, I’m feeling more and more positive that we are through the worst of it. WHY, HOW, WTF?

    Like Left/Juice pointed out over the past few weeks, it really doesn’t matter if the FED raises the rates another 1%, .5%, .25% or 0 for the remainder of the year. The heavy lifting is done. Now we just have to wait for the average consumer to cut back. And they will all on their own. If they don’t, it’s clear our labor markets and housing can afford another 1 to 2% increase in the borrowing rates without much pain. If we are in the period of lag (between the time people go from feeling prosperous to fearing delinquency ***my best guess btw***), then we are probably at a safe place to start putting your money back to work in equities. If there is sudden black swan, or the consumer goes into complete hibernation, then the FED “pivots” and the market is off to the races again in the name of job creation and stimulus.

    So what looked like a wild stab in the dark, when I decided to go back to 70% long, 30% stable in my brokerage accounts was with the above thought process in mind. Best of all, I can bail easy enough if I’m wrong with minimal damage done.

    The CPI print this morning, and the initial market reaction to it tells me that people are beginning to see what I see. Especially considering that this was the first CPI print under the new formula which weights recent events (more inflation) more highly.

    But what do I know? I’m up to an hour a day on the Peloton and my legs barely fit into pants anymore. This is not what I was going for. Have to do sit-ups. But they hurt too much.

  87. Chicago says:

    Two good teams banging heads. Are you just happy the Crimson didn’t take it? Just checking, I don’t think it moved the needle. I wish they swept toothpaste.

    leftwing says:
    February 13, 2023 at 10:06 pm
    Harvard and northeastern tied in the bean pot final after regulation chi!

  88. 3b says:

    Lib: How resilient is the consumer, if the consumer is charging up credit cards and tapping home equity? Resilient perhaps if they believe the good times of ultra low interest rates are coming back and they are confident borrowing, and resilient if they believe jobs will remain plentiful.

  89. The Great Pumpkin says:

    All I know, if this pandemic never happened, this economy would be roaring by now. Could you imagine if we didn’t get all this inflation….f/ing economy would be a beast right now like I predicted last decade. Housing booms drive the economy….simple as that. Demographics said that huge housing demand was coming this decade and it happened. The pandemic and war in Ukraine held this beast down, but when the market bottoms after they finally drop rates, get ready for blast off!

  90. Chicago says:

    Lol of the day

    I dont buy Chinese goods anymore. I recently bought a big screen tv & when I took it out of the box I was very happy to see it said on the back “Built in Antenna”.

  91. leftwing says:

    LOL, yes on the Crimson although I definitely want to see them in the tourney provided of course it doesn’t mean we are out…

    I think Red are fine…again, the real rubber meets the road in all the conference playoffs as that has the highest ability to push around the pairwise since by definition you are playing the best teams as you advance (or lost to a shitty team if you didn’t)….biggest concern on Red is as you noted before our remaining games are against garbage teams and, equally as bad, we have four games remaining while many others only have two…

    Win against a shitty team gets us maybe 11 points and no PCWs…loss against a shitty team drops us maybe 60 points and can cost us a PCW or two…you know from stocks I love skews…really bad skew there, certainly not one I would want to be long lol.

    Go Red!

  92. Fast Eddie says:

    The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Tuesday morning showed prices rose 0.5% in the first month of the year, and 6.4% on an annual basis, more than economists expected.

    Core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components of the report, climbed 0.4% over the prior month and 5.6% year-over-year, also higher than forecast.

    Hey, does anyone know when that O’Biden Inflation Abduction Act kicks in?

  93. Libturd says:


    You can get that SSD drive for 30% off today using the Capital One Shopping link (it’s free). That brings it to under $60 with stacked discounts if you use a 2% back credit card. Less if you have one which gives a greater discount for office supplies. Of course, if you own your own business, it’s an easy write off for probably another ten or twenty percent back come tax time.

  94. Ex says:

    11:07 the only point you have is on the top of your head.

  95. Libturd says:


    If and when the consumer busts out, they can just lower interest rates. Especially because I have a strange feeling that they ain’t pausing anytime soon. My guess would be continued .25 increases if the numbers don’t improve, and .125 once they start improving slightly. If shit hits the fan, pivot, boom market explodes, everyone gets big raises.

  96. leftwing says:

    Fed doesn’t do 12.5bp increments…at least never in my professional lifetime.

  97. Libturd says:


    I kind of remember a few, but I could be wrong. I’ll look it up.

  98. Bystander says:


    The whole thing makes no sense. ZIRP, print Trillions…every asset goes up 40%. We need to spend, spend, spend, invest, invest,invest…grow grow grow…no idea is too stupid. Hire every developer for 250k regardless of skill Free money. 2022, oh now we grew and now employees want higher wages due to asset inflation. This has to stop. Wait rates are moving up as well? No more Zirp? Sell, sell, sell, fire fire fire..but wait the stock market can stay up regardless bc inflation is not 9% and fed will cut rates for sure. Consumer will be fine even if putting it on a credit card, home equity moving down and job losses piling up all around..a new bull of course. That is logic

  99. 3b says:

    Bystander: You have summed it all up nicely. Logic is gone.

  100. Bystander says:


    The market is living in Dreamland if think everyone getting big raises. We had multiple people not show up the day after comp bc they got little to nothing this year. I don’t know where idea comes from that raises have met inflation. They simply are not even close.

  101. Phoenix says:

    Boomer doesn’t care about debt he isn’t going to pay back.

    Can’t get blood from a corpse.

    The whole thing makes no sense. ZIRP, print Trillions…every asset goes up 40%. We need to spend, spend, spend, invest, invest,invest…grow grow grow…no idea is too stupid.

  102. Libturd says:

    Yup. Must have mixed up the Effective rate changes with the Actual. Thanks Left. I told you I don’t know shit.

  103. Phoenix says:

    The market is living in Dreamland if think everyone getting big raises.

    The “important” people always get raises. It’s baked into the system.

    Income inequality will increase this year. Until it becomes the

    ——- Divided States of America.——

  104. leftwing says:

    Good group, often get too far into the weeds with data that is too thin or overly but when they are on macro issues or big ideas they can provide some very helpful ‘zoom out’ analysis…may be paywalled, if so worth the time/bookmarking of signing up for a free trial (especially with their archives and interactive features).


  105. Bystander says:


    No one is watching what they should. As 3b said, credit card debt grew almost 20% in 2022. HELOCs on up swing. The market will tell you it.is comfortable consumer feeling good spending their stack of money. It is desperation with high costs all around

  106. Libturd says:

    Nah. This is just the start. We are back in 2019 before the stimuli. I’m not saying we are definitely not going to bust. But krypto’s done. Spacs are no more. NFTs are laughable. Outside of the 4-5% banks are offering (everyone should have jumped on that shit), people are hungry for gains and willing to take some risks to obtain them. It’s been 14 months now. People are FED up. Heck even companies are buying back shares like crazy. When there is no logic, there are animal spirits. All in the short-run.

  107. Jim says:

    TD America finally has CDs above 5% again. They were up to 5.5% back on November 11. They have actually dropped a full percent since then.

    We may see 6% after our brain dead president releases more oil from our strategic oil supply. Inflation will be King with his ridiculous moves.
    Everybody better learn Chinese if he continues to sacrifice our national security, Joe is only worried about Joe, and that is why he could never get beyond the primaries before his fate full election to president.

  108. leftwing says:

    Jim, those through the brokerage or branch and are they brokered (can be re-sold). Asking for my kid, trying to help him with some excess funds….

  109. Jim says:

    Jim, those through the brokerage or branch and are they brokered (can be re-sold). Asking for my kid, trying to help him with some excess funds….

    Yes , they can be re-sold, TD America makes a market in them. The 5.5% I bought in November can now be sold for an $89 profit, but it is a CD good until a maturity of 11/16/ 2037 and pays a monthly payment. I wont sell unless I kick the bucket, then my wife and kids will probably sell it.

  110. Libturd says:

    Congress could have stopped the oil sale. They decided that it was more important to claw back the number of auditors that Biden hired which Janet Yellin assured would be used to finally focus on getting rich tax payers (over 400K income per year) to pay the full amount they owe, not the 66% that research shows they pay. They’ve also passed bills focusing on denouncing the horrors of Socialism, the bill expressing support for the Nation’s law enforcement agencies and condemning any efforts to defund or dismantle law enforcement agencies. Then there’s the Expressing the sense of Congress condemning the recent attacks on pro-life facilities, groups, and churches and lets not forget the incredibly important No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion and Abortion Insurance Full Disclosure Act of 2023.

    I suppose with all of this toothless bill writing, there was no time to focus on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

  111. Ex says:


    In at least 11 emails, congressional campaigns cite the incident as they ask recipients for money, to sign petitions or to take surveys. Some strike Cold War themes as they raise the dangers of Chinese espionage, but most take jabs at President Joe Biden, who on the advice of the military opted to destroy the craft over the ocean three days after a civilian spotted it in the Montana sky.

    The US claims the balloon was part of a global surveillance program. China has insisted that it was a weather-monitoring device that blew off course.

    The first emails hit inboxes on Feb. 3 when the balloon was still airborne, according to Pundit Analytics, which tracks emails, Facebook ads and social-media postings of elected officials and candidates.

    Senator Kevin Cramer, a Republican from North Dakota, sent out an alert to supporters that began by citing China’s claim that one of its weather balloons had gone astray. While the email surveyed supporters on whether they trusted China, Cramer made clear where he stood on the issue.

    “This is an invasion,” the email said. Cramer referenced his recent efforts to thwart a Chinese company’s plans to build a corn mill near the Grand Forks Air Force Base on national security grounds. “China cannot be trusted. Period.”

    The emails demonstrate how quickly candidates can issue rapid-response fundraising appeals to potential donors on the most controversial topics of the day. Sometimes, that can be tricky with evolving news stories. None of the emails mention three subsequent incidents in which US military jets shot down as yet unidentified craft over the US and Canada, with the most recent occurring Sunday over Lake Huron.

  112. grim says:

    The shift is a sign that even for technology companies that earlier in the pandemic embraced remote work, in-person work and central offices will play a role going forward. Activision Blizzard Inc., publisher of videogames such as “Call of Duty,” on Monday became the latest company to step up its in-office policy, notifying some employees that they would need to report to offices three days a week beginning in April.

    Aka, shadow layoffs, they know people will leave.

  113. Ex says:

    Blizzard is an absolute shit show tbh. Terrible reputation.

  114. Ex says:

    For over a year, Activision Blizzard employees have protested against the company’s poor handling of ongoing sexual harassment allegations. Now, an anonymous Jane Doe has filed yet another lawsuit against the gaming giant for sexual harassment, gender discrimination and sexual battery, among other complaints.

    “For years, Activision Blizzard’s open ‘frat boy’ environment fostered rampant sexism, harassment and discrimination with 700 reported incidents occurring under CEO Robert Kotick’s watch,” the lawsuit explains. “The sexual misconduct was often committed by executives and in the presence of HR.” A report from the Wall Street Journal last year found that the CEO knew for years about rampant sexual harassment at the company, but failed to act.


  115. Jim says:

    Libturd says:
    February 14, 2023 at 2:31 pm
    Congress could have stopped the oil sale.

    Lib , This is not about the oil already released, it is about what he is releasing April 1.

    He is trying to control prices , but that is NOT what that oil is needed for. It is for our strategic protection……that is it, not to control inflation. Both houses are actually against him doing so and will fight it. The old man should be gone just like Trump before they destroy our country.


  116. Libturd says:

    I don’t disagree and I am against it as well. But from what I read, it would require an act of congress to override.

  117. Jim says:

    I agree, but even the dems are not happy about the release. They are up for election in another year and a half. You may actually see people stepping up for the good of the country. Keeping my fingers crossed. I am too old to learn Chinese.

  118. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Great overall post. Esp this part.

    “people are hungry for gains and willing to take some risks to obtain them.”

    Animals spirits matter more in the short-term than fundamentals do. Psychology is what drives the market. 1930’s stock market made people afraid of investing. Took new generations to come and lift it up…other generations were burnt badly and would not touch the market. Right now is the opposite. These generations have never really been burnt. Market has moved so fast in recoveries that dips are looked upon as flash sales now. It’s becoming tough to get a real bust in this stock market. Algorithms buy the chit out of it if drops far enough to hit their triggers. I just don’t see how we have major busts again. This past year is as good as it gets I suppose until things change..animal spirits are not dying, and they are hungry.

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wonder how long it takes for these workers to realize “party is over.”

    You had the most overpaid/easiest jobs in America.

    grim says:
    February 14, 2023 at 4:51 pm
    The shift is a sign that even for technology companies that earlier in the pandemic embraced remote work, in-person work and central offices will play a role going forward. Activision Blizzard Inc., publisher of videogames such as “Call of Duty,” on Monday became the latest company to step up its in-office policy, notifying some employees that they would need to report to offices three days a week beginning in April.

    Aka, shadow layoffs, they know people will leave.

  120. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Imagine having 5 years experience…jumping ship 10 times in that span to get a raise…and making 400-500k sitting at home. Tech bro’s are in for a rude awakening.

  121. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “As an aside, throughout the 2010s when rates were zero, people said that the economy couldn’t handle higher rates. We’re now at 5% and counting, and the economy refuses to roll over.”

  122. Ex says:

    Peak Bruce. Live in New York 6/29/00 . Amirite ?!?

Comments are closed.