From CNN:
Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling
Home prices are going up across the country — in aggregate. Looking at individual markets, however, some are showing prices have fallen from a year ago.
Single-family median home prices increased 4% in the fourth quarter from a year ago to $378,700. Prices were strongest in the Northeast in the last quarter, up 5.3%; followed by the South, up 4.9%; the Midwest, up 4% and the West, up 2.6%, according to the National Association of Realtors.
But drill down to the market level and it’s clear that prices in some areas are declining from the prior year. The positive regional numbers mask that about 11% of individual housing markets tracked by NAR — 20 of 186 cities — experienced home price declines in the fourth quarter of last year.
“A few markets may see double-digit price drops, especially some of the more expensive parts of the country, which have also seen weaker employment and higher instances of residents moving to other areas,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.
Nearly all of the most expensive places to buy are in the West and half of the 10 most expensive cities are in California. Several of those places are seeing prices fall the most.
…
Among the most expensive cities that saw prices falling are Anaheim, California, with the median price of $1,132,000, down 1.6% from a year ago; Los Angeles, with the median price of $829,100, down 1.3%; and Boulder, Colorado, with the median price of $759,500, down 2.0%.
Other places with falling prices saw the big price increases during the frenzied home buying market of the past few years. They also tend to be appealing lifestyle destinations where people moved to as remote work provided more flexibility. These include Boise, Idaho, where prices fell 3.4% from a year ago and Austin, Texas, where prices are down 1.3%.
The good news for buyers looking for price relief is that the 4% median price hike in the fourth quarter is less than the 8.6% increase in the third quarter. In addition, the price increases are smaller, with far fewer markets experiencing double-digit price gains in the fourth quarter.
“A slowdown in home prices is underway and welcomed, particularly as the typical home price has risen 42% in the past three years,” said Yun, noting these cost increases have far surpassed wage increases and consumer price inflation since 2019.
first
Lol …as soon as trump mentions he going to Ohio Biden is sending n the EPA …phony ,the worst president ever.
“Left, Go back to Ask Jeeves”
Is that per Sydney/DAN or a poster? LOL.
Houston, we have a problem….ten to 12 to 15 (outside looking in)…that shutout at home last night against St Lawrence cost us 75 points…the two weekend losses combined cost us five PCW slots, almost unheard of…we’re lucky that Mich St loss unexpectedly against a lowly ranked Wisconsin team and that ND was idle or either of them could easily be above us as well…
“…biggest concern on Red is as you noted before our remaining games are against garbage teams and, equally as bad, we have four games remaining while many others only have two…
Win against a shitty team gets us maybe 11 points and no PCWs…loss against a shitty team drops us maybe 60 points and can cost us a PCW or two…”
Down in Tampa area last few days visiting Pops. Actually had a good time at FL state fair on Thurs. Easy and not overly crowded. Lots of decent rides and fairly reasonable. I can’t say same for cl*sterfuck of Tampa Armature works last night. Who thinks it is a good idea to jam 15 take out vendors next to each in a single blg? It took two hours to find open table and get food. Lines were absolutely insane. The 300 lb double stroller mama and weed smoking neck tat dad families out in full force, spending $200 easy on dinner / drinks. Nothing stopping spending. Really nice place and everyone was pretty friendly but never again. I could never live here. Too much fighting every person and wealthy boomer living Oz Powell induced beach life.
I had some dreams, they were clouds in my coffeeeee
*US households are piling on debt at an alarming rate (increasing 2.5% QoQ; hitting a record $16.9 T w/ credit card debt up >15% YoY) @ a time when their built up savings are depleting fast
This is a fragile position esp. as wages can’t sustain current GDP
Something has to give
https://twitter.com/radicaladem/status/1627190658099478531?s=46&t=u4pc79V8frCb0_MR9T5zqQ
dentss, it’s so bad….watching this unfold would be comical except the senile old man surrounded by a bunch of incompetent grandchildren are actually supposed to be running the country….
Said it before, this Admin governs by acclaim…multiple people in his Admin will say multiple and often phantasmal, conflicting things…as these statements are ripped apart for being any or all of foolish, improbable, or outright lies the remainder are gathered up and sloppily pieced together for the Big Guy to read out loud or take action on days, maybe a week later.
See it repeatedly, most recently with the balloon and this train wreck.
It is like governing by a bad primitive algorithm…we have a Chatbot Presidency, beta version, with lots of bugs….
Or better yet the Scrapple Administration…take whatever pieces fall to the floor, scoop up what you can, grind and mix it up with a bunch of crap to make it minimally palatable, and serve it up to the masses telling them it’s really good.
It’s laughable if it weren’t so frightening…they don’t even try to lie well. They just say whatever pops to mind and expect their compliant followers to agree and accept without question. And most of them do because, well, you know…Truuummmppp!
Are ya skeeeeeered??? Awwww
Psycho 45? No problem. But oh noooooooes
Baked grapefruit! How’s the sun CA way, rise yet?
9:11 go back to bed grandpa, you’re still drunk.
Interesting Sunday headline:
Catholic bishop, 69, is shot dead at his home in Los Angeles
ByS, sounds like you walked into the social equivalent of Point Pleasant Beach on Memorial Day weekend with the same result. Did you expect a different outcome?
Densely packed white trash is densely packed white trash, Gulf or Atlantic, 40th or 28th parallel….
Left,
Talked to my dad about what the hell happened. Apparently baseball season starting up. Jays built new stadium and Canadians coming here in droves. It was also Mardi Gras so just tons of things bringing the masses to Tampa.
It was pleasant when actually seated. I just estimate that third of that crowd should have no business spending dough down there. We stopped to get kids hamburger on way back and Wendy’s said drive in only due to low staffing. Oz Powell..it ain’t working
Watching “The Only Living Boy in NYC”. That downbeat vibe & old walk-ups. Lower East Side.
Agree. In a dunkin right now (I know, traveling, so not nearby my go-to local coffee shop).
Guy walks in for a box munchins, a couple young kids in tow. While online guy grabs five of those single service bottles of Tropicana, whole, milk, and chocolate milk out of the cooler. I glance down, start at $2.99 each. The really tiny plastic mixed (not fresh) ones, likely not even 12oz, must be 10 oz..
Wasn’t being judge-y but checked the family out, including vehicle…outward demographics screamed WTF are you doing paying $15 for five glasses of morning drink for your kids…but, hey, not my bank account. Thankfully.
And with my flurry of posts this morning it’s very obvious to me I’m procrastinating getting done what I actually need to so last post for a bit here…for our inflation fans, link below but some quotes from the article first…
“The maker of Nescafé coffee and KitKat chocolate bars increased prices by 8.2% in 2022, but said this was not enough to offset a rise in its own costs, which had dented its profits. “We are still in a situation where we’re repairing our gross margin and, like all the consumers around the world, we’ve been hit by inflation and now we’re trying to repair the damage that has been done,” Nestlé CEO Mark Schneider said on a call with reporters Thursday.” [LOL]
“We’re probably past peak inflation, but we’re not yet at peak prices,” Unilever’s chief financial officer Graeme Pitkethly told journalists on a call last week.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/16/business-food/nestle-food-consumer-prices?utm_source=business_ribbon
Good day All.
/pulling out my hair/ Who are these people that use credit cards to make “ends meet”? How reckless do you have to be to eat out every weekend, put that [expletive] on your credit card and not have a plan to pay off in full. Don’t people know their interest rates are variable!? Everywhere I go it’s just a sea of mouth-breathers driving around in leased Nissan’s, shopping for cheap Chinese chyt.
I don’t mean the above facetiously, I am genuinely how do these people sleep at night!? My outstanding CC debt hasn’t aged more than 30 days since college.
I really can’t fathom the thought process when one swipes for their Applebees bill, the bag of chyt from the rando store in the side of the road shopping center, without a plan to pay off in full, especially given the variable rate nature of their line of credit.
My wife offered to help her coworker through a software suite a few days ago. Nice woman but kept talking about how high her Zillow estimate is and how her house double in value in X years. She pulled out all equity to repurpose a portion of the dumpy cabbage box.
My SIL will bring up large purchases which they are unable to pay in conversation. You know, like 30K medical bills, the 20K medical bill for the last kid, the visa for the au pair, BIL’s airplane, the COBRA expense, and punctuates these bombshells with a nervous titter. My jaw drops every time: How. Do. These. People. Sleep.
Bystander says:
February 19, 2023 at 8:55 am
“can’t say same for cl*sterfuck of Tampa Armature works last night…It took two hours to find open table and get food. Lines were absolutely insane.”
Was there early afternoon on a Fri in Aug; able to get a table at Ulele right away, but place was packed by the time we left (mostly office workers/professionals). The key take-aways are: 1) Tampa is one of Florida’s many boom towns and 2) people (families, office workers, etc) all feel safe heading to the heart of downtown for dinner and entertainment. On safety, interesting to note as well that when one of Soros’ subversive DA’s got elected in Tampa/Hillsborough, and like the other Soros DA’s threatened to turn Tampa into a criminal playground in the name of ‘equity’, DeSantis suspended him for “willful defiance of his duties”. Needless to say, it’s comforting to Floridians that it’s elected leaders won’t let it’s cities descend into crime and chaos without a fight.
“Really nice place and everyone was pretty friendly but never again. I could never live here.”
Music to the ears of long-time Floridians and the R’s that are flocking there from the decaying blue states. The big fear down there is that the blue-state Dem voters that are responsible for the mess up north, will eventually have had enough of the high taxes, high crime and decaying infrastructure, and head south as well. Hopefully you and your Dem neighbors, who’ve never met a tax they didn’t like, will never get tired of bailing our Hartford (can you imagine going there for family fun and entertainment?).
Florida is the world largest feedback loop of low IQ pensioned neck tattoos. I heard it just recently… finest/bravest neck tattoo wants nothing to do with proposal to sell the cabbage box and retire in Central America. Why? When you can rejoin “the boys” in FL!
leftwing says:
February 19, 2023 at 9:04 am
“….watching this unfold would be comical except the senile old man surrounded by a bunch of incompetent grandchildren are actually supposed to be running the country….”
If you were forced to put together a presidential administration using only cast members from Jersey Shore and Real Housewives, it would not be any more incompetent that what we have now. You’d need to search far and wide to put together a cast of misfits that would include someone as incompetent as Joe, as dumb as Karmella and Jean-Pierre, as vacuous as Buttplug, as subversive as Mayorkas, as weak as Blinken, as moronic as the balloon-blasting duo of Austen and Milley, etc…And what’s really worrisome is that the Dem admin in DC is no different than Dem admins across the country, at all levels of govt — they’re literally all incompetent!
Boomer Remover says:
February 19, 2023 at 11:00 am
“Florida is the world largest feedback loop of low IQ pensioned neck …”
Try writing coherently next time, instead of pasting together a bunch of catch phrases. Eddie does it well; you don’t!
In any case, I assume you’re referring to guys like these, right?
Billionaire Stephen Ross: New Yorkers will keep moving to Fla. over taxes, crime — https://nypost.com/2023/02/09/stephen-ross-says-new-yorkers-will-keep-moving-to-florida/
Ken Griffin’s Miami Move Inspires Investors Who Want to Work From the Beach — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/investors-choose-florida-new-york-hawaii-as-world-s-best-places-to-work-from
I love me some FL but it’s mucho dinero
there now.
Beach Boys. Wish they all could be California girls.
NSFW? Guess it depends where you work……
https://bit.ly/412TQmF
This is a surprise? A billionaire that avoids paying taxes? Of course he would choose Florida. With that money you buy a compound and have armed security. Just like El Chapo.
Billionaire Stephen Ross: New Yorkers will keep moving to Fla. over taxes
Maybe it all started with a one night stand. Guy I work with hooked up with another employee at an alcohol fueled Christmas party. Yup, knocked up someone that without beer goggles Stevie Wonder would have known never to venture there.
She is pregnant, keeping the kid. If it were me I would be looking for some leftover fentanyl to take me out of my misery.
Maybe this guy just got sucked in and sees no hope for a future at all. Might as well roll with it when you are only a few years from being homeless anyway.
You get a cancer diagnosis are you really going to avoid the sun and be concerned with paying off the unsecured credit card?
“Guy walks in for a box munchins, a couple young kids in tow. While online guy grabs five of those single service bottles of Tropicana, whole, milk, and chocolate milk out of the cooler. I glance down, start at $2.99 each. The really tiny plastic mixed (not fresh) ones, likely not even 12oz, must be 10 oz..
Wasn’t being judge-y but checked the family out, including vehicle…outward demographics screamed WTF are you doing paying $15 for five glasses of morning drink for your kids…but, hey, not my bank account. Thankfully.”
Small,
Florida doesn’t have crime. It’s the land of unicorns.
Small,
Florida doesn’t have crime. It’s the land of unicorns.
And retired teachers, cops, and anyone else with a public pension that they received in a Blue state. Hypocritically, in their quest to not pay taxes in the actual state where they taxed others for their profit, they later go on to avoid it.
This also holds true for their spouses, who, even if they aren’t govt workers themselves, collect and profit from the lifetime pension and healthcare benefits their spouses provide while they have businesses-and thanks to NJ taxpayers, don’t have to buy private healthcare insurance.
Phoenix,
“And retired teachers, cops, and anyone else with a public pension that they received in a Blue state.”
You mean like two of my Dad’s ‘on the water’ neighbors? My dad ran marine pump companies his whole career and had to wait until 70 to retire on water. Worked arse off yet his neighbors retired at 55. I am sure they are delusional dolts like Small. Pilfer the blue states..but don’t tax me. Defending “Free-dumb” like they say in Dunedin.
My Dad sold his home in River Vale in 2017 when market was soft. 20 years of ownership and he made perhaps 175k on sale after all said and done. Imagine your neighbors cash out in 2022 for 500k profit. Did not work hard at all..free money from Oz. They are now neighbors. What ass kick for Pops.
For the most part, small gov states tend to attract only the poor plebs who are aspirationally wealthy. I WILL NEVER FORGET getting lost on my way to Sandy Hook beach and driving down 1/9 or 440 or 240 or whatever… just rows of decrepit, disgusting, soot covered vinyl clad hovels, flying Gadsen flags and Trump Rambo imagery. Imagine living a borderline third world existence thinking you are crushing it?
The truth is the majority of migratory neck tattoos have all of their wealth tied up on their primary and are otherwise pensioned. These are not the hallmarks of wealth or upward mobility. Wealthy 1% communities thrive everywhere. Isn’t NoOne in a gated manse down there?
As if Ken or Cathie had anything in common with neck tattoo other than garden variety tax evasion.
Whew, I’m sleeping much better tonight.
Thank You President Biden!!
https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/hobby-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf
Phoenix and ByS, are you two are delusional?
So, the guy on here with the handle (and philosophy) of SmallGovtConservative is responsible for your issues?
Unbelievable….you two liberals vote for left wing slackards who literally tell you what they are going to do, do it, run their States into effective bankruptcy doing it, and somehow you blame ‘small government conservative’ for the outcome?
YOU guys caused these outcomes. But keep pulling that lever…
Fixed your posts for you…
“This also holds true for [public servant’s] spouses [who] collect and profit from the lifetime pension and healthcare benefits their spouses provide while they have businesses-and thanks to
NJ taxpayersleft leaning lever pulling monkeys in Blue States, don’t have to buy private healthcare insurance.”“You mean like two of my Dad’s ‘on the water’ neighbors? My dad ran marine pump companies his whole career and had to wait until 70 to retire on water. Worked arse off yet his neighbors retired at 55. I am sure they are delusional dolts like Small.
Pilfer the blue states..but don’t tax me.Ride the absence of intellect and foresight among Blue State liberals into the sunset.”Richard Belzer passed away, age 78.
Just don’t go north of Tampa.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/instituteforjustice/2021/05/11/florida-sheriff-harasses-public-with-program-where-all-are-innocent-until-predicted-guilty/amp/
Ps. I like Florida. I don’t think it’s perfect and I also don’t think it’s a hell hole… like most places that have pros and cons.
Really left? Who did the (now) FL red hat cops and fireman vote for? Do you see logical fallacy? You can’t complain about blue state debt while also taking the pension. In fact, you could donate it back if so concerned. Rs suffer from usual hypocrisy “I got mine-ism”
That’s some selective reading.
leftwing says:
February 19, 2023 at 1:12 pm
So, the guy on here with the handle (and philosophy)
Typing from phone… Daytona 500 today, an all American event for all Americans. Fox News has been interviewing drivers, owners and sponsors for the last two days. 150,000 folks will be there today. Rachael Campos did a flight with one of the Blue Angel pilots, pulled a 9.1 G, didn’t puke. Lol. When they interviewed on the ground, a winged formation flew overhead, one of the hosts, a military veteran said, “That’s the sound of freedom!”
“Do you see logical fallacy? You can’t complain about blue state debt while also taking the pension.”
Uh, yeah, you can. THAT is the fallacy.
You left leaning wingnuts give away the income of the productive class (and try as you may, not yet the wealth) to protected groups selected by the left leaning politicians you vote into office.
Your Dad was the productive class. His liberal son voted to empower left leaning politicians to give away his hard earned income.
Who’s the SCHMUCK? Him or you?
Certainly not the politician or the protected classes…they’re both laughing all the way to the bank of having pulled the two-fer of getting you to rip off your Dad so they can retire early and comfortably.
Keep pulling that lever, monkey.
Why don’t you go for the kill shot and support a wealth tax? I’m sure there’s more you can enable the Left to squeeze from your family.
Spent 2 days in Oklahoma. It’s very different than DFW area. DFW is like north Jersey with nicer houses and more pickup trucks. Oklahoma I’d say the men who weren’t bald, 90% get their hair buzz cut every week or 2. The other 10% have shoulder length or longer hair. People also tended to be thin or morbidly obese. Not many people with small pot bellies. Also people there have very different body language. Very rigid like they’re riding a horse except they were walking. And I got gas at a Choctaw travel plaza. It’s a typical station with a small convenience store and a large room that is a casino. Drove past a few huge casinos too.
Actually my Dad and I are both out of NJ so I guess that makes you the biggest schmuck?
Just passed the year anniversary of leaving brother. And spent the bare minimum there…less than two decades all-in…
Not typing the other post to inflame or name call…trying to knock you out of your liberal stupor. Your politics enabled the class that pays little to no taxes and the pensioned civil ‘servants’ to claim the benefits that forced your Dad to work to 70 while they retired equivalently and earlier.
Or take the other side and show me not…
Left: screw those frauds. You get blanked on senior night. Are you kidding?
At this point they can only afford a loss to Q’Pac maybe Harvard to be in Frozen Four, but who cares.
Ex: this thing is going to yanked down in about 2 seconds, but I am posting at 9:11 EST….. see how long it stays.
My Favourite Stranger
https://youtu.be/8NulTrG8jqE?t=855
Thx!
Yeah, chi, not a good showing….totally asymmetric risk to the downside, not the trade you wanted, and these guys hit it. Split eights into a dealer seven and pulled sevens themselves…wtf do you do now lol…obviously cannot lose to Brown or Yale or the season is for sure over…presumably they’ll get another bite at the apple to beat better opponents at the ECACs, have no idea how that would affect PCW though and not going to take the time to figure it out…
There’s a decent enough article in CHN about common opponent wins and how that affects Northeastern PCW moving up…had I seen the article before the weekend would have noted the reverse potential for Red for the author…anyway they are at the point where you need to get that deep in weeds (I’m not there yet lol) or they need to win the conference championship in LP…this year will be the first time in a bunch of years I won’t be up there…team is set up for heartbreak season after season.
https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2023/02/14_Bracket-ABCs-First-Look.php
Anyone working today besides me?
Ancient Discoveries (jj Edition):
Dil-do as the Romans do.
UK archaeologists were flabbergasted after discovering that a 2,000-year-old “sewing tool” could potentially be the only known life-size Roman dildo. They detailed the alleged phallic first in the journal Antiquity.
“I have to confess, part of me thinks it’s kind of self-evident that it is a penis,” said Dr. Rob Collins, an archaeologist at Newcastle University who co-authored the paper, the Guardian reported. “We know ancient Romans and Greeks used sexual implements. This object from Vindolanda could be an example of one.”
The Caligula-esque sex-cessory was first discovered in 1992 during an excavation at the Roman fort of Vindolanda in Northumberland, the Times of London reported. Archaeologists initially classified the six-inch-long cylindrical object as an implement for darning — the practice of repairing holes in woven fabric using a needle and thread — which modern scientists suspect was because they had discovered it alongside shoes and other garments.
However, upon further examination 30 years on, researchers believed they might’ve been wide of the mark.
Small phallic facsimiles were ubiquitous in ancient Rome, often in mosaics frescoes, and even pendants worn around the neck as tantric totems. However, researchers believe that this doppel-wanger might’ve been used for self-pleasuring purposes due to its material and the fact that it’s life-size and disembodied — attributes that make it the first of its kind recovered from ancient Rome.
“The size of the phallus and the fact it was carved from wood raises a number of questions,” Collins declared. “The case for its sexual use is clear to most observers at first sight.”
He added, “I don’t know who entered it into the catalogue. Maybe it was somebody uncomfortable with it or didn’t think the Romans would do such silly things.”
The implement is rounded at both ends, which archaeologists say is from repeated use over a period of time.
In addition, the tool was smooth at both ends, suggesting that the supposed double-headed dildo may have been used over a period of time.
Of course, the phallic facsimile might not have been for literal masturbation. Collins wrote that Romans may have employed it as a suggestive pestle to grind ingredients for “culinary or medicinal use” and that the “phallic shape may have been chosen to imbue these with good luck.”
Another possibility, per the paper, was that the wooden willie was a detachable part of a “herm,” a Roman statue comprised of a person’s bust and a pillar leading down to their genitals like an X-rated Pez dispenser, per the study. Frisky Romans would rub it to boost their libido a la a superstitious baseball player touching their lucky bat before play.
For one, Collins says he hopes the artifact is an ancient sex toy. “That is the most exciting and intriguing possibility,” the archaeologist gushed. “If that is the case it would be, to our knowledge, the first Roman dildo that’s been encountered from archaeology.”
In a similarly phallic find in 2015, Polish archaeologists sexhumed an 18th-century leather sex toy while conducting an excavation at a school for swordsmanship
Lib: I am.
Two.
Wow.
“Libturd says: Anyone working today besides me?…Two. Wow.”
The Libs of NJ, their civil servant supplicants, and the 50% of the population who do not pay federal income taxes all thank you.
Now get back to work, bitch, and keep supporting our lifestyles.
And Mr. Lib, do not even begin to think all the frugalness you’ve shown over the years will accrue to you and yours….gimme a 2% wealth tax on your exit from this liberal hellhole you created, write that six figure check for your ‘freedom’ before heading to Vegas baby…
Housing market once again braces for higher mortgage rates—where 8 experts see rates going this year
Lance Lambert
But those builders and agents might want to avoid getting too excited: Already, mortgage rates are back on the rise.
On Friday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate swung back up to 6.8%. Over the past few weeks, rates have steadily climbed as financial markets, which have seen stronger than expected economic and inflationary data, are pricing in higher odds of the Fed holding interest rates higher for longer.
That 6.8% mortgage rate is the highest reading measured by Mortgage News Daily since early November. It also means that affordability is once again deteriorating.
A borrower who took on a $500,000 mortgage in early February 2023 at a 5.99% fixed rate would have gotten a monthly principal and interest payment of $2,995. At a 6.8% rate (i.e. the average rate on Friday), a borrower would get a $3,260 monthly payment on the same size loan.
At first glance, there’s nothing historically abnormal about a 6.8% mortgage rate. However, that understates its impact. See, it’s less about the numerical mortgage rate and more about the total monthly mortgage payment as a percentage of new borrowers’ incomes. And when accounting for everything (i.e. house prices, incomes, and mortgage rates), the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta says, housing affordability is as bad now as it was right before the housing bubble burst in 2007.
The chart below—which shows year-over-year change in mortgage rates—illustrates how housing affordability deteriorated so fast over the past year.
As long as housing affordability remains pressurized like this, many housing economists and analysts believe it’ll be hard to sustain a strong recovery in home sales.
Heading forward, economists say there are three levers that can improve housing affordability: rising incomes, falling home prices, and falling mortgage rates.
Of those three levers, mortgage rates can make the biggest impact in the short-term. We saw just that as falling mortgage rates between early November and early February translated into slightly improved activity levels. The opposite could occur in March and April if mortgage rates keep pushing towards 7%.
Where are mortgage rates heading from here? To get some clues, Fortune once again tracked down mortgage rate forecasts from eight leading research firms (Fortune did a similar roundup for 2023 home price forecasts). Keep in mind that during an inflationary run it’s challenging to predict future mortgage rates.
The Mortgage Bankers Association: The D.C.-based trade group projects that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 5.2% in 2023. Beyond this year, the group expects mortgage rates to average 4.4% in both 2024 and 2025.
Bank of America: Researchers at the investment bank expect mortgage rates to fall to 5.25% by the end of 2023. “Mortgage rates likely peaked in 2022 and the historically wide 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year treasury yield spread between could narrow through 2023. Our structured products team expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decline to roughly 5.25% in 2023, as spreads normalize with lower treasury volatility,” wrote BofA researchers on Jan. 11.
Morgan Stanley: The Agency MBS strategists at Morgan Stanley believe that mortgage rates will fall to 6% by the end of 2023. (Here’s the investment bank’s home price outlook.)
Fannie Mae: Economists at Fannie Mae, which was chartered by U.S. Congress in 1938 to provide affordable mortgage financing, project that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.3% in 2023 and 5.7% in 2024.
Freddie Mac: Economists at Freddie Mac, which like Fannie Mae was also chartered to provide affordable mortgage financing, forecast that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.4% in 2023.
Moody’s Analytics: The financial intelligence arm of Moody’s projects that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.5% through most of 2023. (You can find Moody’s Analytics regional and national home price outlook here.)
Goldman Sachs: The investment bank projects that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will end 2023 at 6.5%. “We expect 30-year fixed mortgage rates to rise to 6.5% by year-end, reflecting narrower mortgage spreads due to a rebounding MBS market—particularly for securitizations with explicit or implicit government guarantees—but higher Treasury yields. We also note that the rapid decline in mortgage origination, especially refinances, has caused some lenders to exit or scale back lending. This has the potential to allow the remaining lenders to expand their margins by pushing mortgage rates higher,” wrote Goldman Sachs researchers on Jan. 23. (You can find Goldman Sachs’ latest home price forecast here).
Realtor.com: Economists at the home listing site believe the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 7.4% in 2023.