From TAP:
Nearly 1.7 Million New Jerseyans Applied for the ANCHOR Property Tax Relief Program
Approximately 1.7 million New Jersey homeowners and renters applied for the first year of the State’s historic ANCHOR property tax relief program, announced Governor Phil Murphy and Treasurer Elizabeth Maher Muoio. The last day to file for the program was Feb. 28.
Of the applications, more than 1.1 million were filed by homeowners and more than 480,000 were filed by renters, who were eligible for property tax relief for the first time in a generation, said officials.
“My Administration has once again responded to the concerns of hard-working families not by offering empty words and promises, but by delivering on the promise of affordability and real property tax relief,” said Governor Murphy. “Thanks to the historic and unprecedented ANCHOR program, almost 1.7 million more New Jerseyans are now better positioned to pursue their own American Dream, a pursuit that has been too often hindered by high costs of living and affordability constraints. As I indicated during my Budget Address yesterday, that number is merely the beginning and only motivates us to re-double our efforts to support hard-working families throughout the next fiscal year.”
To have been eligible for this year’s benefit, homeowners and renters must have occupied their primary residence on October 1, 2019, and file or be exempt from NJ income taxes. Homeowners who earned between $150,000 and $250,000 in 2019 may be eligible for a $1,000 rebate, homeowners who earned up to $150,000 in 2019 may be eligible for a $1,500 rebate, and renters who earned up to $150,000 in 2019 may be eligible for a $450 rebate.
…
Payments will be issued in the form of checks or direct deposits sent no later than May 2023 and will not be subject to State income tax.
First
I guess Murphy forgot he almost lost the election ….if the republicans can find a stronger candidate he’s toast ….
Not eligible for the government cheese as usual.
BTW the senior property tax freeze income limit is now $99,735 or lees it was $91,505 in 2020..At least we know those pensioners will be getting their fat property tax rebate checks. My mother gets back about half her property taxes and has been for a long long time now…
Gotta admit, sometimes them good ol boys in Florida come up with a good zinger.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/florida-lawmaker-pens-legislation-apparently-aimed-at-canceling-the-party-affiliation-of-every-democratic-voter-in-the-state-6318268a?mod=home-page
Ten 407
408 (it’s 2004 all over again).
Regardless of what affiliation you are, this is childish. It’s what America has become.
grim says:
March 2, 2023 at 7:56 am
Gotta admit, sometimes them good ol boys in Florida come up with a good zinger.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/florida-lawmaker-pens-legislation-apparently-aimed-at-canceling-the-party-affiliation-of-every-democratic-voter-in-the-state-6318268a?mod=home-page
don’t need to tell you how important the 400 level is chi if she holds daily and weekly closes, not just optics but also technicals…
not a permabear, losing proposition, and you guys already know I swing from both sides of the plate. feeling like we might get a little Spring sale though…now that we’re basically through earnings a screen I’ll hopefully run before Monday…which companies have some extensive quarterly record (six, eight?) of beating on the top line, beating the bottom line, and raising guidance AND this last quarter beat top and bottom but guided down. Valuations, balance sheets, fundamentals, and price action of course follow…
Thought is looking for a subset of these companies that are managing expectations rather than potentially exposed (ie, may avoid retail). If there are solid consistent beaters who guided down with shares having taken a commensurate hit and then they take another leg down in an 8% or so market downdraft that may be part of a LT buy and hold list for me…don’t know, just a thought, need to see where data takes me…spitballs, handclaps?
“If there are solid consistent beaters who guided down with shares having taken a commensurate hit and then they take another leg down in an 8% or so market downdraft that may be part of a LT buy and hold list for me”
This is exactly our investment club strategy. We’ll share what we find in the coming months. My two clubs have decided to merge together and the nationwide club is much more experienced than my local club. Though, the participants in the local club are much younger and offer a much needed alternative view of things that the geezers often need to hear. We have time. The next earnings season should be the doozy. As a matter of fact, anecdotally, I am seeing cracks in people’s spending habits. Especially when it comes to the their discretionary spending habits. I can be wrong, but I think that the hammer is dropping this Summer.
I was just given my annual allotment to compensate my American team. I can’t share exact numbers, but it wasn’t even half of the current inflation rate. Not even close to it, sadly. My company has always been a pretty solid gauge of the overall economy. My magic eight ball currently is reading, “Outlook not so good.”
TY on specifics lib.
TA lines (witchcraft) for you with SPY spot at 393 is through the 50SMA for a few days now (397), right on the 200SMA (393), and flirting with that major trendline I posted the other day (391).
Splitting hairs on these numbers as any intra-day moves everything but drop beneath that trendline and hold see you guys at 380-375 pretty assuredly.
Glen Ridge, baby!! Though, getting closer to the Oranges:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/glen-ridge/79-willow-st-glen-ridge-nj-07028–2005940687
Yet another pretty house in the ‘Ridge but within ear shot of the gun shot:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/glen-ridge/147-carteret-st-glen-ridge-nj-07028–2005938898
Until the cranes and bulldozers come to a rusty halt, I don’t see anything changing. There are 6 homes around my middle class neighborhood that are being torn down and replaced by 1.6m magnolia farms wannabees. The non-stop mixed use construction in every town goes on unabated. Won’t even mention the people remodeling current homes. Fed has created expectation that all bumps in road are temporary. Don’t worry about it. Read the news. Light recession, stocks will go back up,inflation is in the past, rates will come down again..yada
Zoom Jury Duty……brutal listening to everyone’s excuses….
Condo,
Did this guy show up?
https://youtu.be/yH3Y_4wc0Ng?t=20
Random snippet from my morning feed…not sure if it makes me feel younger or older…
“In 1983, CD players and discs were released in the US. In 1985, Dire Straits partnered with Philips to promote the new music format, and its “Brothers in Arms” became the first album to sell 1m+ CDs.”
“Zoom Jury Duty……brutal listening to everyone’s excuses….”
Especially when the entire process that takes place can and should be performed using survey monkey or something similar. But the government values your time about as much as they value productivity of theirs.
Lefty,
My Nasdaq chart is saying the same thing. We are about 1% away from confirming a new downtrend and crossing the 50 DMA to boot. For longer term numbers, it seems the Nasdaq has spent the entire last 11 months bouncing around the 11K line with equal time spent above and below it. Ignoring all the noise, what’s incredulous about this is how much interest rates have been raised and earnings softened over this time period yet the index really hasn’t moved much in the last year. I see it as a massive headwind. Though time is a tailwind that can’t be ignored either. We could stay flat for a very long time. Ideally, I’d much rather see the market dip and recover though. Can’t make much money on this flat market. Having the bulk of my investing dollars in banks and treasury bonds seems like it was the correct play. Glad I did it.
Fast,
That Willow house is quite cute, but I would bet you need flood insurance and I would also bet the basement floods.
Those Carteret houses are all right on top of each other and this one backs to the park which is very, very noisy. The public works is on that road which means lots of truck and equipment noise too.
Though, will be interesting to see what each end up selling for.
I’m noticing the Zestimate on my place is slowly creeping down.
“…incredulous about this is how much interest rates have been raised and earnings softened over this time period yet the index really hasn’t moved much in the last year. I see it as a massive headwind. Though time is a tailwind that can’t be ignored either.”
Yeah, same conundrum. Need to look at the annual historical SPX earnings again more deeply, as I seek a marginally better entry point I have a little voice in my head that just the natural trajectory of those earnings – necessarily on a 2018/19 stack to current – may not leave us that far off from where we are even with a ‘pullback’. Basically, looking through the shitshow distortion of covid on the real economy enough time has elapsed where we may have ‘grown’ into earnings not far beneath where we were last year…
“Having the bulk of my investing dollars in banks and treasury bonds seems like it was the correct play.”
Trade du jour now. Needless to say another headwind to equity flows.
If I could get the index to 380 I likely can throw on an options trade that would return 33% by year end provided the index stays above 365 and breaks even with the index above 350. That is the setup I would like to start to leg in to…even better if I could find the liquidity in individual names…
left: what do your charts tell you about this? booya
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SI/
Last year at this time, we had quantitative easing and the FFR was 0% – 0.25%.
Libturd says:
March 2, 2023 at 10:32 am
Ignoring all the noise, what’s incredulous about this is how much interest rates have been raised and earnings softened over this time period yet the index really hasn’t moved much in the last year.
Top of the curve May 24 522
Just hearing about SI in the background, not a pool I swim in…sounds rough, coinbase pulled business, these guys are technically a bank, and stated the couldn’t file their Q?
Drilling baby, that’s the chart, no?
At the end of the day, things never change.
Part of the picture of your Magic 8 ball Lib. Repos headed up.
https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a43141284/auto-loans-unpaid-gen-z/
“Just hearing about SI in the background, not a pool I swim in…sounds rough, coinbase pulled business, these guys are technically a bank, and stated the couldn’t file their Q?
Drilling baby, that’s the chart, no?”
Out of curiosity, how many other people here have no idea what these two sentences mean? :)
Some kind of weird finance patois?
LOL. chi mentioned a crypto-related stock that lost 50% today because they could not do their regulatory filing on time (their 10Q, the quarterly report required by every public company to be filed with the SEC). Company also stated they may have viability issues. It apparently has a banking charter and coinbase is a large customer neither of which is good because (i) unlike operating businesses banks fail and go to zero overnight, and (ii) losing your largest customer and liquidity as a bank virtually assures (i).
On the question of where the stock price chart is going ‘drilling’ is exactly as you expect the visual…straight down into the ground, vertical.
Not a pool I swim in, self explanatory, I don’t touch that shit in my portfolio so really don’t know anything more about it.
Made complete sense to me. Yikes….. what does that mean?
OC1 says:
March 2, 2023 at 12:48 pm
“Just hearing about SI in the background, not a pool I swim in…sounds rough, coinbase pulled business, these guys are technically a bank, and stated the couldn’t file their Q?
Drilling baby, that’s the chart, no?”
Out of curiosity, how many other people here have no idea what these two sentences mean? :)
Some kind of weird finance patois?
I am still mystified that Bitcoin is up at these levels….. is it still siphoning the gold trade, which continues to be dead in the water?
All that matters…liquidity.
I know people want the stock market to be based on some scientific process, but it’s not. It’s a pure casino. Only thing that has been proven over the long-term (as of now) is that stock index goes up over time.
“Trade du jour now. Needless to say another headwind to equity flows.
If I could get the index to 380 I likely can throw on an options trade that would return 33% by year end provided the index stays above 365 and breaks even with the index above 350. That is the setup I would like to start to leg in to…even better if I could find the liquidity in individual names…”
chicagofinance says:
March 2, 2023 at 1:57 pm
I am still mystified that Bitcoin is up at these levels….. is it still siphoning the gold trade, which continues to be dead in the water?
Tic…tic….tic…. when economy busts, so does WFH. Only a matter of time. You guys laughed me off on here two years ago…but look at what’s happening. Writing is on the wall. Majority will not be WFH. Some will, like prepandemic, but not majority. Companies will be at a severe disadvantage long-term if they can’t get their employees to come into work. Just facts…
“USAA Tells Staff, Your Remote Job Is No Longer Remote
Company reclassifies some remote employees as many employers step up in-office requirements
Many bosses are calling workers back to the office. One big U.S. company told people hired on a remote basis that they need to start coming in.
The financial-services company USAA notified some staff on Monday that they would soon be required to show up in an office three days a week, according to a company email reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
The policy applied to some employees hired into remote-work arrangements during the pandemic. If someone lives within 60 miles of a company office, they would now be considered a hybrid employee, regardless of whether they were hired into a remote role, the email said.
Many employers have stepped up in-office requirements in recent weeks. The USAA policy stands out in that the company is reclassifying remote workers as hybrid employees. It couldn’t be learned how many employees might be affected by the change. The San Antonio company has employees who work in remote, hybrid or purely in-office roles, spokesman Christian Bove said.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/usaa-tells-staff-your-remote-job-is-no-longer-remote-c70685a7?mod=hp_lead_pos6
Dream on, Dean….dream on. Wait till the labor market and economic conditions go to chit. Don’t be naive.
“Some bosses say they have become fed up with remote work, feeling that productivity has slipped. A number of corporate moves in recent weeks, from a change in office policies to office closures, can also spur employees to quit, thinning a staff without resorting to layoffs, human-resources practitioners and corporate advisers say.
Some human-resources chiefs, though, believe much corporate work will continue to be done remotely, with spurts of in-person collaboration, bonding and meetings among colleagues.
“Huge amounts of people are going to be working at home,” said Dean Carter, a former human-resources executive at apparel maker Patagonia, who is now the chief people and purpose officer of education provider Guild Education Inc. “That’s a reality of work.””
i like that willow house, but wrong side of bloomfield ave for sure… the price reflects it though
CHI – Bitcoin is supposedly over 50 % fake trades. These use synthetic wash trades with other coins, shit coins that weren’t even mined they were created out of thin air and claim the are backed by dollars or UST. It’s all done on the offshore exchanges mostly backed by nothing, no regulations and no real audits of assets or trades. When the rest of the exchanges go down the music will stop. It costs way to much money to keep the mining rigs running without actual real dollars coming in to pay for the massive energy usage.
Interesting report on NBC news last night, reporting from Crimea last night.
NBC reporters said no way Crimea is going to be under Ukrainian control again.
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1631052325266632705?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1631052325266632705%7Ctwgr%5E5a1013fb004f1b25a03bd58b7910b72e49f4b6c6%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fmsnbc-reporter-goes-crimea-shocks-viewers-telling-truth
Tornado sirens in the evening. Must be spring in north Texas.
For live updates of the storm with 80+ mph winds coming through watch WFAA on YouTube.
Juice: However it all plays out, Crimea is not going back to Ukraine.
Goldman Sachs: 99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate
Houston, we have a problem.
OK, Lib…let’s see what time I go to bed tonight, lol…refined some data grabs, here’s a first glance starting with high level stuff….
Big Picture. Pulled 1, 5, and 20 year meta on all companies…used three month rolling averages to smooth. Five and 20 year data were right on top of each other, I’ll quote 20 year…eps beats on average 59.4% of the time (we are currently at 65.3%). Sales beats 56.5% (we are currently at 65.6%). Lower variance on eps, and lower than I would have thought. Pre-covid there was only one instance of 70% beats on eps and only two others in the high 60s. Only one breaking 55% on the downside. 2012-2018 were quite tightly grouped around the average line. Sales wider variation, we’ve hit 70s a couple times, one time 40% (2009), and sales beats have a much looser grouping generally around the average line.
How fucked was covid? Early 2020 eps beats sat right on the basically 60% average line, in less than six months they were over 80%, unheard of…not unsurprisingly it has been a forty-five degree angle down and to the right to where we are now…GIGO….
So, on the companies, I only looked at 12/2021 through today. That gives five quarters and is a limitation but if I wrap in covid I’m just not going to be able to isolate any trend with the literal roller-coaster hill of 60 to 80 to 60….
So in that data set there are 850 instances of a company during that period beating top and bottom and raising guidance. Writing a macro to dive deeper, eyeballing the data guessing half are repeaters (one company more than once) and a good number of those repeaters are multiple times with a few companies hitting five out of the five possible and many fours.
There seems to be interesting aggregate price action, of the 850 companies the full one day price change was +4.5% and, interestingly, nearly all was the opening gap (+4.2%), ie. on average flat performance on the trading day. I’ll run medians and deviations later. That outcome is surprising I want to check the data again. If it’s solid could be an interesting earnings trading opportunity there.
There’s so much here I could dive into further especially if I collect more data. I’m fighting all my OCD/ADHD instincts not to, as the point of the scrub was just to use it as a screen for potential longs. I am going to work with what I have now on the company side trying to see if there is positive, negative, or no correlation. Quick glance is inconclusive, there are a lot of tickers I don’t know (likely a cause or effect of me not having many longs in my portfolio recently) and some tickers I recognize as at least recent dogs like some consumer names. I did pop open my screens when I saw my first company that went 5/5, assuming it was a unicorn (it wasn’t) I wanted to dive deeper…it’s company I didn’t know of and the record of earnings, sales, and guidance beats further back was pretty phenomenal.
Guessing (hoping?) this type of analysis and research may serve its purpose, along with some valuation and technical measures may provide some insight or at least winnowing down of potential names. Ideally for me it can give guidance on high P/E names like info tech, SaaS, and such because when I get to those 40, 50, 60x forward P/Es for real companies it is very hard for me to pull the trigger and I want/need some. Some data backstop to assist that kind of decision would be golden.
Otherwise, the big picture takeaway for me to noodle is those gains on the day of; the big picture takeaway for you to noodle is that with a predisposition among us that earnings are coming down for 2023 – and the forecasts have over the last nine months and continue to do so – to get outside of those 20 year eps beat norms earnings would have to really plummet at a greater rate than the forecast declines to something approaching a 2009 meltdown….in other words, to track to historical norms actual earnings this year wouldn’t be far off from the forecasts so one may actually want to pay quite a bit more attention to the forecasts than at least I normally would….
That’s all. Apologies to anyone reading this and going ‘wtf’, I posted this mostly verbatim in my trading group, wanted to throw something in here as Lib and I discussed it, and it’s just too late for me to edit it down…
Missing context. I know you are looking at the granular level. From what I understand S&P forecast is 222. Are you implying something about the potential for revisions down? Or is this a pure TA exercise about performance At announcement of earnings?
As an aside, are market dynamics (i.e. quant trading, computerization, off exchange) and also internal corporate financial technology ( I.e. ability to collect and render accurate data and forecasts) imply that the data is dynamic in quality and behavior once you push out beyond the last 5-10 years are so.
Still maybe I missed something, what is the context?