From Charles Steindel at the Steve Sweeny Center for Public Policy at Rowan:
Multi-Year Budget Workgroup: New Jersey Economic Outlook
New Jersey’s economy did well in 2022, setting new highs in jobs, output, and income, generally matching or exceeding growth in neighboring states, and keeping pace with the national expansion. However, the widespread expectation is that the national economy could fall into a recession in the near future, reflecting the interest rate hikes the Federal Reserve has generated to bring down price inflation. In this environment New Jersey’s economy will face headwinds. If, as is widely expected, any recession would be relatively modest and short, New Jersey should start to recover in 2024. Nevertheless, ongoing corrections in the equity and housing markets will weigh upon many New Jersey residents and impact state revenues for some time.
…
Preliminary numbers show that the number of jobs in New Jersey hit a new record high in August 2022, and kept growing through the end of the year (the job figures for 2022 are still subject to the regular annual “benchmark” revision, which will be released in March. It is now anticipated that the current numbers are underestimates). The recovery from the pandemic collapse has been remarkable: New Jersey saw a drop in jobs in early 2020 that was notably larger than the national average, but has since experienced larger than average gains. The state’s job count grew 3.6% from December 2021 to December 2022, higher than the national gain of 3.0%, as well as New York’s 3.1%, and a touch better than Pennsylvania’s 3.5%.
…
The data on state output and income reinforce the good news we have received on the labor front. The first three quarters of 2022 saw New Jersey set new records for the dollar value of state Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the first and third quarters set new records for “real” (inflation-adjusted) GDP. The dollar value of GDP is of particular importance since its long-term growth is, to a rough approximation, a plausible proxy for the growth of the revenue base for both state and local governments.
….
New Jersey will not be immune from a recession. At the least, the state’s huge logistics sector will be hurt by a softening in demand for goods shipped to the Port of New York and New Jersey. New York City has experienced a subpar recovery, due to ongoing softness in the financial and tourism sectors, which are vulnerable to a national downturn. Weakness in the Big Apple will have some spillovers to New Jersey, in areas such as retail sales and real estate. As mentioned, there is also some potential for a ramp-up in foreclosures. Given a mild recession we expect a modest loss of jobs in 2023, and an uptick in the unemployment rate.
The recovery from the recession is also expected to be fairly sluggish: while the Fed might bring interest rates down substantively, given the current partisan gridlock in D.C., along with concerns over the level of federal debt, there is little likelihood of much cyclical relief on the tax or spending fronts. It was a hopeful sign that numbers of major economic indicators in New Jersey actually grew better than the national average, but in looking ahead it would be better to assume that the longer-term trend of slower growth here continues.
In this environment, not only will income and spending growth slow, but so will real estate transactions (in number and dollar values), as well as capital gains realizations. All these factors will work to hold down revenues. A return to growth in 2024 will ease the situation, but as we saw in the last decade, it will take some time before revenues again grow robustly.
first
one thing is for sure we will keep on #1 ranking in property tax for years to …..
#1 ranking in property tax…
It’s warranted along with more regulations, higher energy and housing costs. Remember, we’re prestigious. The red states are getting most of the inbound folks as they’re fleeing blue states because… well.. more government means more debt, stress, abuse of power and financial waste.
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/statemigration1.png?x91208
Beer 45 watts per solar shingle so 12,600 kw. Just how big is your house anyway to be using that much electricity? With net metering your bill should be near zero annually. I gather the salesperson was trying to make his next F150 truck purchase this quarter. Also GAF seems to be charging a huge markup per shingle, they have not released retail pricing. Panels are usually $3 on low end and $5 on the high end per watt for panels. What is GAF they trying to get $30 per watt? That is an insane markup.
F solar I say it’s a total racket. Here in NJ too.
I was looking to do my own solar filed with panels, refurbished ones. I could it all for less than $10,ooo and generate a zero electric bill, but you cannot sell or trade the excess, the credits from the utility only roll over or they expire in NJ. No way to make money unless you build a commercial farm but that is a racket too.
By the way, BMW is selling off 20 acres of it’s Woodcliff Lake headquarters for multiple townhouse construction. It’ll be more than 20 acres, you and I know it. And I love when they call it multi-use properties. Go fuck yourself. You want tax dollars to pad the police chief’s and school superintendent’s six digit pension. What an eye sore, all these tracts of green space EVERYWHERE is now being turned into townhouses and condos. In a few years, I can’t wait to drive along West Saddle River Road in Saddle River and watch it turned into Jamaica, Queens.
Some crazy stories coming out of the fighting in Ukraine over some small town Bakhmut. Massive losses if true over a thousand men dying per day, that is approaching WW I numbers where thousands were dying every day in the trenches of France and Belgium.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11829971/Russia-resorts-using-Tankenstein-armoured-vehicles-fitted-ageing-naval-turrets.html
Eddie who needs empty office buildings? I was recently at one in Piscataway off RT 287 to take a certification exam at Pearson. When I went back to my car to leave at 10 AM I drove around for a bit. It was like a neutron bomb was set off, endless office buildings with empty parking lots, a ghost town. All of it will be sold off to build apartments. It is the only way forward for the towns to keep their tax receipts once the now decaying office buildings become derelict and are demolished.
(Reuters) -Meta Platforms Inc will cut thousands of jobs as soon as this week in a fresh round of layoffs, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, only a few months after the Facebook-parent reduced more than 11,000 people from its workforce.
The new round of job cuts is being driven by financial targets and is separate from the “flattening,” the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.
Meta declined to comment on the Bloomberg report when contacted by Reuters.
The diversity, equality (or do they call it equity now) and inclusion teams are intact. Thank G0d!
Juice
We have 3,500 square feet on a slab. 2 hvac units with gas heat. Electric dryer and 2 electric hot water heaters.
Not frist!
There seem to be tons of tear-off solar panels available on the used/surplus market.
There had always been a lot that seem to have ‘fallen off the truck’ – skidded, new, firesafe prices. But now I’m seeing tons of tear offs too.
Seems that these things are getting pulled down to be able to repair roofs, maybe part of renovations/add-levels. Curious – once they come off, they don’t at all appear to ever go back up again, hence the availability.
Just scrolling through some ads now – less than $0.50 a watt.
Fast: The apartment development in Emerson is picking up speed now, when done Kinderkamack will be a mess. That part of Kinderkamack is very narrow, and you have the train coming through there as well, which always backs traffic up. As for Montvale and Woodcliff Lake, huge development there over the last 10 years or so.
NJ’s pivoting from commercial real estate to industrial, manufacturing, warehousing, and distribution. What NJ makes, the US takes.
Just look at the most recent BEA State GDP report (as cited in the headline):
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/stgdppi3q22.pdf
NJ pulled a whopping 0.83% quarter over quarter increase in Wholesale Trade (2x the national average and the second strongest growth in the nation), 0.65% in Nondurable Manufacturing (8x the national average!, tied for 1st in the nation growth), 0.46% in Transportation and Warehousing.
Yes plenty of surplus in the low end solar and used etc. My brother is a commercial solar installer. There are new 700 watt panels half cut bifacial solar panels coming to market. You would only need 10 to power your house instead of 20 smaller panels @ 375 watts. I would rather build one nice rack in my yard along the fence line than put them on the roof. The new panels are however bigger 7.40 feet x 3.72 feet about 71.2 lbs. The standard for rooftop is 5.76 feet by 3.41 feet about 43 lbs.
And it all will lead to much higher real estate pricing for single family home owners.
3b says:
March 7, 2023 at 8:09 am
Fast: The apartment development in Emerson is picking up speed now, when done Kinderkamack will be a mess. That part of Kinderkamack is very narrow, and you have the train coming through there as well, which always backs traffic up. As for Montvale and Woodcliff Lake, huge development there over the last 10 years or so.
Or a nice solar farm along the driveway would be cool too. I have south facing space that could be landscaped nicely with panels at ground level.
How about a plastic ground mount, filled with gravel? Cheap and easy to do. No need to get a permit (fuck the town) it is not something that is a structure or permanent, so why does it need a construction permit?
Here is a picture.
https://tinyurl.com/4b2447c2
I was doing some work with one of the appraisal companies hired by towns to handle town wide reassessments. Some towns now consider solar panels as an item that adds value to the property like a patio or a shed. In these towns panels will increase your tax assessment. Same for a whole house generator.
grim, I had mine removed for roof replacement 2 months ago. Sunrun bought out Vivant so they took them down for me. They are sitting in my backyard. They don’t seem to be in a hurry to reinstall them at all. Kinda weird but I think sunrun is likely a poorly run company that it just swallowing up every other solar company.
Electric rates for 100% renewable are now down to 12.3 cents a kilowatt. We locked in last month at 12.9. It was 13.5 when we first started looking around.
“NJ’s pivoting from commercial real estate to industrial, manufacturing, warehousing, and distribution. What NJ makes, the US takes.”
Hmmmm, so replacing white collar, college edumacated professionals with…any forecast on nominal aggregate income as this labor transition occurs…
“How about a plastic ground mount, filled with gravel? Cheap and easy to do. No need to get a permit (fuck the town) it is not something that is a structure…”
Double check, may vary by town…my old NJ domicile moved to make swingsets (and basically anything that sits on the ground) a structure for zoning purposes after ‘neighbors’ seemed inclined to move their noisy recreation like kids and fire pits very close to their neighbor’s property line and away from their own decks and patios…
“Some towns now consider solar panels as an item that adds value to the property like a patio or a shed. In these towns panels will increase your tax assessment. Same for a whole house generator.”
Greedy fuckers. Always the grabbing hands, grab all they can…(yup, went there)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzqqVFb9p4U&ab_channel=DepecheMode
Powell talking tough this morning, Market not liking it.
Top of the curve May 24 527.3
leftwing says:
March 7, 2023 at 10:03 am
“Greedy fuckers. Always the grabbing hands, grab all they can…(yup, went there)”
Well,
When you need money to pay for the f up’s. Sorry taxpayers, this one is on YOU.
——————————
Los Angeles County has agreed to pay nearly $29m (£24m) to NBA superstar Kobe Bryant’s widow after police shared graphic images of his fatal helicopter crash three years ago.
Bryant and his daughter Gianna died along with seven others when the aircraft crashed in the LA area.
His wife, Vanessa Bryant, sued, saying first responders photographed human remains as tradable “souvenirs”.
In March 2021 Mrs Bryant shared the names of four sheriff’s deputies she said had distributed “gratuitous photos of the dead children, parents, and coaches”, who had been travelling to a basketball game.
She said the pictures, including those of her 13-year-old daughter Gianna, were taken and shared “for no reason other than morbid gossip”.
Mrs Bryant testified at the trial that she had read in media reports how photos of the crash were shown at a pub by a Los Angeles County sheriff’s deputy.
———————————–
Inversion 96
Humans suck Phoenix. But you already knew that.
“Humans suck Phoenix. But you already knew that.”
I do.
Their job is to administer justice. Justice would be if you did something wrong you would pay for your mistake.
They made a mistake.
So why is it that those whose job it is to administer justice don’t administer it to themselves- but instead, cause grief not just to those who they wronged-but then also to the taxpayers who pay their salaries?
Where is the honor, justice, or righteousness in them? Or that they are doing God’s work? Or the court system they work within?
It’s not there, cause we don’t have a “justice” system, we have a legal system.
Lawyers are the root of all evil. They hurt the taxpayer more than anyone else out there and are responsible for all the ridiculous laws that come about from their exploitation of the taxpayer. Definition of a leech. A high cost leech…
“Los Angeles County has agreed to pay nearly $29m (£24m) to NBA superstar Kobe Bryant’s widow after police shared graphic images of his fatal helicopter crash three years ago.”
29 million that could have went to helping society…instead is pissed away into the cups of lawyers.
The lawyer wasn’t the one who was guilty here. Nor was the penalty wrong.
The penalty was administered to the wrong individuals, by a system designed for just that outcome.
Los Angeles County has agreed to pay nearly $29m (£24m) to NBA superstar Kobe Bryant’s widow after police shared graphic images of his fatal helicopter crash three years ago.
Sorry, but why did this require any monetary payout, let alone one that insanely high?
Look up Belmont Learning Center in Los Angeles. $400 million for a school that was projected to cost $200 million and opened 9 years after projected.
See, when you are spending other peoples’ money, there are no consequences if you work in the public sector and fuck up.
“The penalty was administered to the wrong individuals, by a system designed for just that outcome.”
I mean, how fucked up is your DNA and personal social strictures that you not only gratuitously photograph dead, mangled, burned humans and children but then publish them?
Guy shouldn’t be sued or locked up, should be deported to some isolated far away colony for irredeemable social outcasts. Ain’t no fixin what’s wrong with him.
I’m sure he probably still has his job. That is the way.
I mean, how fucked up is your DNA and personal social strictures that you not only gratuitously photograph dead, mangled, burned humans and children but then publish them?
This happens every day, the only differenc here is that it was a famous person who died.
Are you telling me you really think any average Joe would have gotten a similar payout? Hell no.
That’s the morality issue here, not that someone would take photos of a dead person.
grim says:
March 7, 2023 at 11:19 am
Sorry, but why did this require any monetary payout, let alone one that insanely high?
This is American capitalism. This is civil court.
If they gave Kobe’s wife the option of doing what she wanted to them vs a monetary payout I’m sure some of them would be pushed off the side of a cliff.
Someone posted pictures of my dead child I would prefer that option. You can keep the money.
But that is not an option, so the 30 million stands. It’s no deterrent compared to the cliff pushing-especially when the actors aren’t the ones being penalized. They laugh and probably kept copies, the taxpayers pay.
This is the “justice” system you have, and 30 million is appropriate. Actually I would say 1 billion+ is better, or whatever amount it takes till the taxpayers have had enough and vote to enact changes legally to correct the malfunction-which is those who commit the act are held responsible for the crime they committed and not the taxpayer who was innocent.
grim says:
March 7, 2023 at 11:36 am
“That’s the morality issue here, not that someone would take photos of a dead person.”
I’d beg to differ on this one.
“This happens every day, the only differenc here is that it was a famous person who died.
Are you telling me you really think any average Joe would have gotten a similar payout? Hell no.”
“All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.”
The median existing-home sales price in January increased 1.3% from one year ago to $359,000, according to the National Association of Relators.
Build Broke Better.
I’d beg to differ on this one.
I’ve seen too much of what social media content moderators do, I’ve seen what they see, and it no longer shocks me the content people willingly share.
Aren’t the construction companies private companies? Wouldn’t really blame public workers….public workers are the same as private workers. Not much difference these days…you know that’s the truth. I would argue that private WFH workers are king of the hill….getting paid sick amount of money to enhance their work/life balance. Soft as f/k.
Libturd says:
March 7, 2023 at 11:23 am
Look up Belmont Learning Center in Los Angeles. $400 million for a school that was projected to cost $200 million and opened 9 years after projected.
See, when you are spending other peoples’ money, there are no consequences if you work in the public sector and fuck up.
It’s no deterrent compared to the cliff pushing-especially when the actors aren’t the ones being penalized.
It’s the exact opposite of a deterrent. We’ve gone out of our way to shield them from any real liability or repercussions, in fact, they are all still employed.
That said, this one not so clear cut…
First deputy to the scene needed to hike more than an hour to actually get there, and there were already public citizens at the crash site (who presumably could have taken as many photos as they’d have liked too).
His position was that command requested that he try his best to document the crash scene while the rest of the team was still en-route, especially given the fact that there were already others who hiked up to see the crash.
He was ordered to take the scene photos, so that’s not up for debate.
“That’s the morality issue here, not that someone would take photos of a dead person.”
Yeah, I’ll take the other side of this debate…as you post later he was the first deputy on the scene and *as part of his official capacity* took photos to document the scene. Not share them in a bar and on the internet.
“I’ve seen too much of what social media content moderators do, I’ve seen what they see, and it no longer shocks me the content people willingly share.”
Not a defense to the above. ‘Johnny hit me so I hit Bobby’ doesn’t work here…And again, to your other post, if regular citizens photographed and published they are basically sick, horrible people. But they had no official capacity.
My daughter is raped and goes to the ER for treatment and the trauma is documented by the hospital and authorities. Should I expect to see those photos of her battered vee-jay published on the internet and passed around the local watering hole? What recourse should I/she have if it is? You’re on the wrong side of this one, grim.
“If they gave Kobe’s wife the option of doing what she wanted to them vs a monetary payout I’m sure some of them would be pushed off the side of a cliff. Someone posted pictures of my dead child I would prefer that option. You can keep the money.”
Same recourse for me. Or my battered daughter.
“Buybacks aren’t all bad. As I recently pointed out, share repurchases are neither an evil nor a panacea. They can be abused. But, on average, buybacks don’t enrich insiders or starve companies of sorely needed capital.
Mr. Buffett put it succinctly:
Imagine, if you will, three fully-informed shareholders of a local auto dealership, one of whom manages the business. Imagine, further, that one of the passive owners wishes to sell his interest back to the company at a price attractive to the two continuing shareholders. When completed, has this transaction harmed anyone? Is the manager somehow favored over the continuing passive owners? Has the public been hurt?
The stock market is a yo-yo, but businesses aren’t. Mr. Buffett wrote:
We own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie [Munger, Mr. Buffett’s partner] and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.
He added:
It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.
Just look at Berkshire Hathaway itself.
In 2022, Berkshire’s stock shot up almost 20% in less than three months. Then it fell by roughly 30% in the next three months. Then it gained more than 10%, fell back more than 10%, rose almost 20%, and finally faded a bit at year end.
When all was said and done, the stock gained 4% for the year.
What about the business? Did the fundamental value of Berkshire’s insurance and energy and manufacturing and real-estate and railroad businesses swing wildly up and down over the course of a single year?
Of course not.
You will never succeed as a long-term investor – and I happen to think there’s no other kind – unless you learn to look past the spasmodic behavior of stocks and focus instead on whether businesses have durable advantages.
Finally, the stock market is the perfect place for patience. Mr. Buffett (who was born in 1930) pointed out that he’s been investing for 80 years:
The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.
Unless you use leverage, or borrowed money, you can’t lose more than 100% on a stock. But your potential gains are unlimited.
So, if you put an equal amount of money into 10 stocks and nine go to zero, but you hold the other for decades and make 100 times what you initially paid for it, the value of your total investment will grow tenfold – even though you were wrong about almost everything.
People often complain that the stock market is a rigged game. And so it is. It’s rigged against the impatient – and in favor of those who can let their winners run. The longer you can let them run, the more rigged a game you get to play.
You can read the rest of Mr. Buffett’s letter here.”
DNA…bottom line. Invest in good growing companies that have a future.
“The stock market is a yo-yo, but businesses aren’t. Mr. Buffett wrote:
We own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie [Munger, Mr. Buffett’s partner] and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.
He added:
It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.”
Photos weren’t shared on the internet. It was amongst the cops and firemen and one bartender. Federal Jury ruled I gather because well it was down town LA. In calculating damages, the jury found that the sheriff’s department and the Los Angeles County Fire Department both violated Bryant and Chester’s “constitutional rights to privacy”.
Where is that exactly in the constitution? First Amendment protects the privacy of the home not at a crash scene in a public place. Dead people BTW don’t have rights.
Again downtown LA jury who were probably no fans of the PoPo….
Blame the thirsty lawyers for god sake. They took on this case and cost ordinary citizens money. Now how many times a day is this happening across america? Our insurance is through the roof because of these scumbags. F them with a brick.
“Again downtown LA jury who were probably no fans of the PoPo…”
Inversion 102…… holy fucking shit…..
If there is no recession, you can throw out the predictive history of the 2-10 inversion.
When it hit 71 last year, it was the lowest since 1981. Is this a record Chi?
Record was 85 in 1981
50 bp increase back on the table at next meeting, that’s the chatter.
Higher FED rate, higher house prices in Jersey. It’s how we roll.
Oh it’s all going to come crashing down horribly. And the experts are all going to utter that familiar phrase, “How were we to know?”
Some thoughts on DNA below with the caveat that I like the product a lot, not necessarily the company under current management, and not necessarily the valuation:
On Berkshire, yes, Buffet is not a stock picker and is a business picker, however, the decision cannot be divorced from valuation. There is a reason his major investments are/were chemicals, rails, financials, consumer and the like, and his most speculative was Apple. All three components – product, company/management, and valuation – must hit to make a great *business* a great *investment*. That is the question on the table for DNA.
DNA as a product is fine. Before getting into management and its missteps it is worth noting the current share price. Specifically:
The good news is there is a practical limit as to how much further it can fall, there is just not that much room from the current $1.33 share price to zero, and this company with $1B+ of cash won’t go to zero.
The bad news is one needs to watch it breaking a buck. She drops through $1.00 for 30 consecutive days it will receive a delisting notice from NYSE meaning a reverse share split. Resetting the share price to, say, $10 opens a whole new can of worms for further declines.
On the company and management now, specifically:
It’s missing its own forecasts, badly. FY 2022 revenue was 20% short of their own forecasts. New forecasts for FY 2023 are 50% off original forecasts.
They don’t have control over their own internals. They were incapable of filing their 10K on time (March 1) with the SEC. This is a major issue, it just does not and can not happen with major US publicly listed companies. They have about a week or so to be within the SEC grace period. The press release they put out in conjunction last week with the failure to file hints at some accounting issues. We’ll see if they hit the grace period and if there are any meaningful accounting disclosures. The good news, the recent all time share price lows are likely partially due to this uncertainty which will be cured one way or the other soon enough.
Major insider sales, enough said…Note that anyone running around attributing them to taxes due to the SPAC is misinformed. Also note, as I did here when it occurred, that the management team *told* you in November when their shares were at $2.67 that they expected them to go down further when they sold stock to finance a small acquisition. You do not dilute shareholders (and yourself) and sell equity at $2.67 a share when you have $1.3B of cash on the balance sheet if you believe your shares are worth more than $2.67. Throughout the course of this past year – through insider sales at progressively lower prices and a dilutive new equity offering – management has literally told you as loud as they can with their own financial actions that the shares were overvalued at $2.67. Given the shares are 50% off that number now, guess what they were right. Unsurprisingly.
On valuation:
The company themselves – not the market – based their valuation off 2024, taking the rosiest view possible…no issue there, it’s the way this world works. Let’s look at that same valuation now.
Their 2024 revenue was supposed to be $628B…which was taking 2022E ($175B), doubling it for 2023 ($341B), and doubling it again for 2024 ($684B). As noted, they missed 2022 and now say 2023 will be $175B…the two issues with that are it represents a substantial deceleration of growth (from a projected doubling to only 25% growth) and that the deceleration now makes the original 2024 estimate nearly entirely unattainable…let’s be wildly generous and assume they hit the new 2023 ($175B) and after that can go from the new 25% growth rate to a an immediate doubling again so that 2024 is now $350B.
Where does that get you on valuation? What is the revenue multiple now?
The original 2024 revenue multiple was 18x and was derived from a selective, highly cherry picked set of comparables (again, no problem there it’s the way this world works, just be aware of that). The revenue multiples for those companies are now 7-9x enterprise value.
Using those (still very high) multiples and the $350B (very optimistic) 2024 revenue estimate one gets an enterprise value of $2.5B-$3.2B or $3.8B to $4.5B of market cap.
With 1.6B shares outstanding that gets you to a share price of $2.37 to $2.81.
Notably that share price range is assuming they actually hit their 2023 revenue number and then *double* it in 2024, which even they are not predicting. And, further assuming, that they get the high growth valuation multiple applied to their shares when they only grow revenue 25% (by their own estimate) rather than doubling it each year as they had previously forecast.
As I said at the open…the product and service is solid, the company/management has shown itself to be marginal at best outside of the science, and the valuation was atrocious. Unless/until all three of those components – and not just one – become best of breed sub-$3.00 is where a best case share price fair valuation lies.
I just watched the Tucker Carlson piece on the January 6th erect1on. There’s 40,000 more hours of tape hidden from the public. My conclusion is that there was indeed an attempt at a coup d’état. It was successful and it’s now called the O’Biden administration.
Fast: Of course the higher the rate, the higher the price , but only in north Jersey. However, there will have to be work arounds for people, as we become more like Queens jam packed and high prices, there will need to be some illegal basement and garage apartments, and multiple families packed into houses. There is a price that has to be paid, but it’s worth it.
Check this, lefty. I know what I own.
https://twitter.com/biodazzles11/status/1631326215586951168?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
Insider sales were almost all for taxes. These guys don’t have a big salary to help bring down costs. Kelly (ceo) addressed it last week in the call. I will try to find video if I have time.
Btw, institutional holdings have increased 6% while insiders were forced to sell cheap shares. They gobbled it up.
Also, management purposefully brought down the share price by not being scumbags and overpromising….they trimmed revenue to much lower levels that are impossible to miss. This is the bottom….no way it goes under $1…and if it does, I am buying the chit out of it. This is a long-term winner…
Pumpkin…and it is notable that I am addressing you as such and not some pejorative…
I (we) have watched you move over the last decade or so from quoting USA Today as a primary source to publications that actually perform diligence and analysis, and are credible. It was a good move.
Yet regarding your investments you are following anonymous internet clowns…’biodazzle’, really?
Again, I’m not saying this in any pejorative way, I am coming entirely palms up sincerely trying to be helpful…when I asked 3b for a mulligan to actually address you after avoiding it for so long it was specifically to be ‘human’…meaning that at $11k of investment you can toss it in Ts and take your wife out to a banger of a Valentines dinner next year with full principal intact. Or top up the 529 for your daughter in an age appropriate option and pay for two years of really high quality off campus housing when she’s a sophomore in college. Or get a bit more creative and split it over two years, opening a Roth for your daughter, and continue to toss in 6k annually so when she hits that first professional job and has a multitude of questions on all the benefits including retirement you can present her with a huge leg up on confidence and security. There’s so much positive you can do.
Or, you can invest according to ‘biodazzle’….and the guy yesterday whose entire investment thesis, if one can call it that, is that he was ‘picking’ which stocks other investors may ‘pick’ if another bubble were to occur soon…
There is so much diverse knowledge on this board and I’ve taken away much, including in my area (tangentally, investments) where I am expert.
It’s here if you want it…Lib, chi, etc. Just put the trumpet down and ask someone knowledgeable for the sheet music. Your band will appreciate it.
This is either the peak of the return to normal phase of a bubble, or the mother of all bear traps and the start of a new parabolic bull market.
Covered most of your bases there, huh, lol?
Area of total confusion, indirection. Eventually the market will tell you what to do.
My areas haven’t changed…looking for sub-3800 or 4400. Otherwise, just shooting the fat, low, slow flying birds.
Left,
Thanks for treating me like a human being. Really appreciate it.
I only shared that twitter link because it was the only one that i could find quickly showing what kind of management this is and what they want to do. Check the video on this link to understand that this is a long-term focused gem. CEO kelly explains…
https://twitter.com/mikecarlsbad/status/1631411176285564928?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
If you are here (in dna) to make a quick buck, this not the place for you. It’s a long-term bet on science and awesome team. Going to require patience and a stomach, but you will beat the chit out of 8% returns from index funds over the next 5-10 years. Don’t play with money you need now.
Unless they go under due to cost of operations. Everyone wants to get paid.
There’s no doubt that what they do represents the future. But what is the moat? I’m not impressed by management whatsoever. Not at building value.
“…and awesome team.”
Outside of the science, demonstrably not.
As a public company you literally have one obligation, and it is non-negotiable. Accurate and timely disclosure to the SEC. And they just failed that.
Before listing they were the highest profile ‘unicorn’ in the life science space. Everyone anywhere near the sector was waiting for them to file. They would have been the largest biotech IPO, ever. They had any investment bank they wanted bar none bending over backward for them. It is instructive into their (lack of) knowledge and insight running a company – as contrasted to developing biopharmaceutical services and products – that they went SPAC.
It is further instructive that they raised capital – with $1.3B on the balance sheet – from a low tier investment bank known for jamming securities down the throats of their ‘stuffee’ investors who are now 50% underwater just since November…
You don’t need to give me anonymous, uninformed twitter posts for me to ‘appreciate’ life science management teams…I have first person, real experience advising, raising capital, and selling their companies multiple times over, more times than I can count. ‘biodazzle’ not only brings nothing to the table, he is an uninformed novice farce…
There is one weird if unstated intersection of thought on this company…it is an absolute buy and a rocket ship the day they bring in a seasoned, well experienced manager to run the *business* of the company, in distinct contrast to the *science* of the company. I can virtually guarantee you that was one of the sticking points as they interviewed investment banks for the IPO, and part of the reason they went SPAC instead. And a very large part of why they are down 87% from their offering price when they should have been instead if not the, at least a premiere biotech IPO of the decade.
My point is there are much easier, better, more highly probable, and lower risk avenues to make the returns you are seeking; and there are even easier ways to make a much more advantageous return off this company.
There is a major difference between good products and good companies. The latter have good products and are good investments. The former flail, their shares dwelling in the low single digits until some established major pharma/life science player finally takes them out of their misery at a few bucks a share down 70% from their offering. I’ve seen that show and its sequels so many times now I can recite the script rote from memory.
Record was 85 in 1981
How the hell to get defensive in this environment?
What recourse should I/she have if it is? You’re on the wrong side of this one, grim.
You are right, bad form from my part.
Don’t make any major purchases, like a new car.
Take advantage of bank and credit card bonuses.
Keep your powder dry.
Yeah grim and I agree the jury award is excessive, mistargeted, and reflects other factors…and if this guy is still employed I just don’t understand….
Fast Eddie says:
March 7, 2023 at 2:47 pm
I just watched the Tucker Carlson piece on the January 6th erect1on. There’s 40,000 more hours of tape hidden from the public. My conclusion is that there was indeed an attempt at a coup d’état. It was successful and it’s now called the O’Biden administration.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOGUqzPqy3E
Cops did nothing illegal folks. Taking pictures with a personal cell phone in a public place is A-OK. I am sorry that the City Council and Mayor did not fight this, it was their decision to pay out to move on. Nobody was harmed here folks, yes feeling were hurt but invasion of privacy because of the Constitution. Hardly a real argument it happens every day outside the home. Dead People have no rights, the straw man Left built about a living rape victim does not apply.
Every day I see people on the internet murdered on the news. How about those folks the cartel took out in Mexico? It’s splashed everywhere.
BTW I have been in the room many times with some pretty slimy lawyers in expensive suits. FKem all. The jokes are all true even the ones about heaven.
“A 50-year-old lawyer who had been practicing since he was 25 passed away and arrived at the Pearly Gates for judgment. The lawyer said to St. Peter, “There must be some mistake! I’m only 50 years old, that’s far too young to die.” St. Peter frowned and consulted his book. “That’s funny, when we add up your billing records, you should be at least 83 by now!”
If true, not a good sign.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CpVRPpRupQ5/?igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY=
My brother said first time he is slowing down in 12 years with his plumbing business.
Recession or worse is prob coming.
Lefty,
Thanks for the good analysis. Appreciate it.
I believe in the science too much to exit, but going to take a step back reorganize my thoughts and target position on it.
This Fed talk today has me nervous, they are going to overshoot this by a mile and crash it. The housing market has turned off its engines…it’s stalling with low sales. That has to be killing all sorts of businesses in the economy as housing is the main driver of growth in our economy. It’s going to be a crash landing if they keep raising at this point, but f’k it, let’s just get this over with already. Crash it.
Pumps you have a brother who is a plumber and you did not share?
WTF dude amongst this group we probably can send him a boat load of business.
Anecdotal – I wish I was a plumber..
Juice, he has shared that before.
Re: verdict, not going to get into a knockdown drag out over it…I never brought up any ridiculous Constitutional argument…my point is simple, if you are an LEO on duty and in the line of duty obtain evidence there is at the very least no reason to share that publicly, multiple reasons to not share it publicly, and depending on the situation an obligation or duty to not share it.
Don’t know where any of this lands legally but it is incredibly untoward and unnecessary. And if any one of us here in the private sector did anything analogous in our corporations we would be fired and our employer likely sued and held liable for some type of damages. Seems to me that government officials ought to be held to at least the same standard.
I’m watching this thing with Ken Griffin. Fact checked something and got lost in the Wiki.
“In July 2014, Griffin filed a divorce petition in Cook County, Illinois citing “irreconcilable differences” with his second wife.[77][78] The couple had entered into a prenuptial agreement which governed the split of their assets in the event of a divorce.[76][79][80][81] As part of the prenuptial agreement, Dias-Griffin received $22.5 million at the beginning of their marriage and received an additional $1 million each year they were married.[77][79] During the marriage, she received $37 million in cash payments and 50% ownership of their Chicago penthouse, which occupies three floors of the building.[82] In court fillings, she claimed that she was forced to sign the prenuptial agreement.[77][83] She also claimed that Ken Griffin had no right to enter the Chicago penthouse.[84][85] He allegedly forbade her from entering homes in Hawaii, Miami, Colorado and New York.[77] In later court filings, Dias-Griffin requested $1 million per month in child support payments, including $300,000 per month for private jet travel, $160,000 per month for vacation rentals, and $60,000 per month for office space and staff”
Ufff…. that’s a lot of zeros everywhere.
she must be pissed though. He gave one third of the total prenup amount to republican causes over a three year period alone.
Left what is left to say? Cops took photos in public like any other person would do so today. Everything is recorded freedom of speech and all (isn’t this already settled in court?). Cops took photos and did what shared them closely nobody was “defamed” or “constitutional rights violated”.
They made SH**T up here, jury convicted in a civil court because well Cops. Phoenix here tells us all how much the deck is stacked.
The only way is not the play the game. Hence a guy like Lib who is hell bent on leaving town.
I don’t blame Kobe for forcing the helicopter pilot to fly. Was that in evidence? Probably not.
Justice Served…
Just a reminder LEFT, those PICS are not anywhere to be found.
Gentleman’s courtesy here, now wipe your chin.
In the Kobe Case what the cops did was wrong. Not the first time this has been aired.
In Nascar, Jr went to court for his dad and is champion of this cause. Its not about the money and I’m sure the Bryant family will send it on to do good.
https://theeyeisright.wixsite.com/theeyeisright/single-post/2018/02/25/nascar-driver-pays-tribute-to-left-eye
Police are not the general public. They are supposed to be paid professionals. They are on duty. Crime scene roped off, well, doesn’t seem to me that the “public” has access to it.
There is also this one- California cops before. Guess they never learn. Nikki Catsouras.
I am not a fan of attorneys- that’s for damned sure.
“The more I think about it ol’ Billy was right.”
Cops were wrong- taxpayer paid for their mistake, they can suck it up.
Oh, and not only for Kobe, but the others involved as well:
Pay suckers, keep defending them when they -in this case-not a mistake, but just vile freaks-do something disgusting and illegal:
“The jury determined that the county fire and sheriff’s departments violated their constitutional rights to control the death images of family members, as established by federal precedent under the Fourteenth Amendment. The jury initially awarded Chester $15 million and Bryant $16 million for their past and future emotional distress, though Bryant’s amount was reduced to $15 million after a juror noted an error on the verdict form.
In the end, the photos scandal cost the county more than $51 million in settlements, including $19.95 million for Chester and $1.25 million each for two other families that lost loved ones in the same crash.”
Last.
“I don’t blame Kobe for forcing the helicopter pilot to fly.”
Pilot has the license, Kobe does not. Kobe doesn’t force a licensed pilot to do anything.
Pilot is a professional man. No one, and I mean no one, makes me do anything in my line of work outside my scope of practice or judgement. Don’t like it, find someone else to do the case.
Grow a pair, tell him wanna fly effen fly it yourself, I ain’t goin, I ain’t dying.
It has a term, “get home itis,” and has killed many an aviator.
https://www.aopa.org/training-and-safety/air-safety-institute/accident-analysis/featured-accidents/epilot-asf-accident-reports-get-homeitis
Last.
Raw footage of Jan. 6 riot inside the Capitol Building depicts Capitol Police escorting the Q-Anon Shaman around. The D’s spent months and millions on a committee, which apparently propped up a distorted picture of that event.
While the Committee was meeting publicly, Bloomberg Radio was carrying it live. As soon as I ever heard it while driving around, I would change the station because it seemed over-the-top dishonest. The “dishonesty” to me, at the time, was that the D’s were blowing completely out-of-proportion the danger and malevalance of that day. Now, it appears there was also dishonesty about how earnestly the relevant law enforcement acted that day.
Finally, a disgrace to the Constitution if this kind of footage was not supplied to defendants facing trespassing or whatever charges stemming from J6. An added disgrace on top of the judges urinating on the Constitution by keeping these people locked up rather than out on bail pending their cases. [p.s. – I’m not some whacky rightwing nut, I just poltiicaly disagree with the D’s and MSM attempt to ridiculously call J6 an “insurrection” and the significance of that particular act of political defiance].
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GKoXevqrw0
Pilot was only certified VFR he should not even been flying in any bad weather never mind fog, but again that is a different legitimate civil lawsuit. But the fact remains Kobe pressured them to fly, he did not want to sit on the 101 in traffic, that was his MO when he was a player helicopter all over LA no sitting in traffic for the great Kobe. That foggy day was a bad one to be in the air for any pilot certified IFR or not.
Look people the jury said their constituional rights were violated. Which right is that folks? I have no love for what happened it was crass but was not illegal at the time, it is now California passed a law for first responders over it.
Jury gave the other person”s family money too in this one I believe $10 million. How is a retired basketball players life worth more than any of the other people that died in that crash?
Look Mayor and council did not want to appeal, they settled and paid out an exorbitant sum and nobody even got fired, suspended or demoted.
You can bet it will happen over and over with these settlements just look what happens around here when the cops sue their own towns huge payouts because somebody at work behaved badly. Nobody gets, fired, demoted or sued personally, always the town because that is where other peoples money and insurance is.
BTW been to depositions over misbehaving employees, companies rarely settle if your feeling got hurt at work and you decide to sue over it. They will litigate and appeal, most of these suits get tossed eventually. FU and your feelings.
I fail to see how the courts should not set an example for people that invaded and rioted inside the capitol and did actually interrupt Congress. Laws were broken. Think your sentence was too severe? Next time don”t plead guilty tell it to the jury instead.
BTW where are the demotions and firings for the cops that did not do their jobs and kick those nutters asses like that Shaman guy? They should all be fired, but wait they will all sue and the jury will award tens of millions.
Phoenix – You should open a Mexican clinic and do butt lifts and tummy tucks. News said over a million people went to Mexico last year for those cosmetic procedures. 70% discount as long as you pay cash, and avoid the gunfire it will all be ok. Also dentists down there are making a killing too. Implants full set for $7,000 cash, you too can look like a freaky celebrity for less, it cost about $40,000 here for the same teeth.
Juice, dog with a bone on Kobe, eh? As I said last night not going to die on any hill on this one, my initial response before yours came in only because I felt the inordinently outsized award was distorting underlying opinions on an action that was clearly wrong.
My points again…not an attorney, not wandering into the farce of Constitutionality, agree ‘anyone’ can try to post ‘anything’ they want….but if it is your job and your job only to handle matters of great sensitivity you have some fiduciary duty, without meaning it in a strictly legal sense.
And, again, anything close to this occurrence in any of our private sectors jobs and we would be on the street and our employers writing a check.
However the jury got there I feel ‘justice was served’ with the caveat the award was outsized and mistargeted, ie. the actual perpetrator appears to not be the one being held accountable in any way.
Juice, I don’t believe the pilot was VFR only. I’m not saying you’re wrong, I am just shocked that this company, given the clientele, the immense liability over their heads would hire someone who isn’t IFR (and for that matter first aid, eagle scout, ex-military, etc).
Strange.