From Mortgage News Daily:
Mortgage Rates Head Back Over 7% After Powell Testimony
Jerome Powell is the Chair of the Federal Reserve–the entity that sets overnight lending rates in an attempt to keep inflation in a low, stable range. Inflation has been anything but low and stable recently, so the Fed has hiked overnight rates at the fastest pace in 40 years.
Mortgage rates have also risen at the fastest pace in 40 years, but they are not directly dictated by the Fed. Rather, the Fed’s direct influence on overnight rates spills over to the rest of the rate market. The longer the duration of any given borrowing term, the less connected the interest rate may be to the Fed Funds Rate.
Moreover, the market adjusts expectations for the Fed Funds Rate constantly whereas the Fed only officially hikes/cuts 8 times a year. When the Fed meets again in 2 weeks, they will certainly be hiking rates again. The only question is “by how much?”
Markets had been steadfast in their expectations for a 0.25% hike, which is viewed as the minimum increment for a rate change from the Fed. With some recent data indicating plenty of economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressures, calls have increased for a 0.50% hike.
In a scheduled testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today, Fed Chair Powell stopped short of specifying a number for the next rate hike, but commented qualitatively on the need to hike faster/more than previously expected. Markets consequently upped the odds for a bigger hike in 2 weeks as well as a higher ceiling expected by the end of 2023.
Again, the Fed Funds Rate doesn’t directly dictate mortgage rates, but there was a bit of spillover as market expectations shifted in the direction of “higher for longer.” The average mortgage lender was already close to 7% for a top tier conventional conforming 30yr fixed scenario, and today’s weakness was enough to officially push us up into the low 7’s.
Just looking at the rates this AM – 5.3% 3 year CD, 5.4% 10 year CD, your pick of date ranges at 5.25%.
First
I locked in a one year CD at 4% back in December. Maybe should have laddered or waited a bit for a higher rate? Oh well. I’m certainly going to explore options come December.
And won’t it be curious to see what Powell does? Caught between a rock and a hard place. If he goes an unexpected 50 basis points, the market will freak out.
As for you potential house buyers, better buy now or be priced out forever!
$4,000 per month in PITI with 105K down @7% interest for this lovely home just a few blocks from historic Silk City:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/clifton/64-e-3rd-st-clifton-nj-07011–2088511846
I do hope the $1,000 per month car payment doesn’t put a strain on the buyer.
Awesome! A kitchen and a bathroom combined! Who says you can’t shit where you eat? And you have your choice of hearing the soothing sounds of route 46 and the Garden State Parkway!
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/clifton/104-park-slope-clifton-nj-07011–2005871258
Oh, and I failed to mention; how many roof leaks can you count on the Park Slope house above?
More please…
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/07/a-new-nuclear-reactor-in-the-us-starts-up-for-first-time-in-seven-years.html
Lib
Found your future Vegas home
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-11833577/Inside-Siegfried-Roys-famous-Jungle-Palace-duos-Las-Vegas-mansion-hits-market-3M.html
Surprised how few two family houses are available in Clifton.
Exterior of the Jungle Palace is actually pretty nice, that interior though. Look out Liberace.
Who doesn’t love a 30 foot sound barrier on your property?
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/clifton/56-myrtle-ave-clifton-nj-07014–2005894152
That’s walkable to Silk City Distillers – that’s a huge premium.
Gary,
That bathroom/kitchen combo sold for $278K on 07/01/2019. I can’t imagine they made any improvements besides the wheelchair ramp in the backyard. They have some gall listing it at $530K.
Grim,
Thinking about moving there?
The sound barrier house is a bargain. You could turn that sound barrier wall into some kind of exercise wall, then sue the state for millions when you fall and get a boo boo.
Eddie,
You missed a big selling point, access to guns and drugs. 2 things that will be necessary in a dystopian future.
A very American capitalist concept. Don’t hate the player hate the game-isn’t that how it works?
“then sue the state for millions when you fall and get a boo boo.”
I wish my background was in law knowing what I know now. I’d make it my mission to sue them into oblivion.
That bathroom/kitchen combo sold for $278K on 07/01/2019.
Nice mark up on that gem. In two years from now, it’ll be listed for $1.6 million.
Fast: Market chatter now says 71 percent chance Fed does 50 bp. If Fridays job numbers are higher than consensus then I think it’s a done deal on 50. Fed has to kill inflation, over inflated assets fuel inflation, stock market got its shellacking over the last year? Now it’s housings turn. Look at your posted listings old dated houses asking 500k with mortgages at 7.00 sellers still think they can get these prices with rates more than doubled, if they can, then Feds work is not done.
Inversion 109
NYNJ Port Container Volume details:
https://theloadstar.com/container-imports-tumble-at-us-ports-with-the-west-coast-hardest-hit/
January import volumes at the ten largest US container ports fell 17.9% against the record throughput of January last year, with the biggest declines at west coast ports.
And with an expected “significant volume decline” this month too, US box ports are preparing for a tough first six months before an anticipated recovery in the second half of the year.
According to the latest McCown container volume analysis, there were 23.5% fewer containers discharged at US west coast ports last month than the previous year, at 775,577 teu, with the port of Long Beach the worst performer, recording a drop of 32.3%, to 263,394 teu.
The McCown report also recorded a 12.6% fall in import containers at US east and Gulf Coast ports in January, to 919,589 teu, with volumes at New York/New Jersey seeing the biggest contraction, of 20.6%, to 316,010 teu.
From January, but still relevant:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/25/port-of-new-york-shatters-trade-record-but-california-is-coming-back.html
The Port of New York and New Jersey moved almost 9.5 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) for 2022, the first time in its history the port broke the nine-million container mark and another sign of its greater prominence in the global supply chain as more trade has moved away from the West Coast.
The New York port has increased the number of containers moved every year since 2017, and in 2022, in particular, benefited from the threat of labor strikes at West Coast ports which led logistics managers to re-route trade.
While the Port of New York and New Jersey came in second overall – recording a total of 9,493,664,00 for total containers processed, behind the Port of Los Angeles at 9,911,158 TEUs – in recent months the Port of New York took the top spot away from California as the nation’s busiest port. The Port of Long Beach moved 9.13 million TEUs last year.
“These 9.5 million TEUs is more than 27% of 2019 levels,” said Bethann Rooney, port director of the Port of New York and New Jersey. “This is a staggering growth rate compared to our historical growth of 3.5% a year.”
NYNJ Port Dashboard:
https://www.panynj.gov/port/en/our-port/facts-and-figures.html
Perhaps not quite as bad as pumpkin’s video yesterday would imply.
The Housing Market Will Test Parents — and Kids
Hefty mortgage rates and a scarcity of homes for sale mean families searching for better schools will need to adapt, not move.
Connor Sen
March 8, 2023 at 6:30 AM EST
It’s a rite of passage for many parents in the spring — the kids are getting older, maybe starting kindergarten or moving up to middle or high school, and it’s time to move houses in order to access a better school. Except … with the current state of the housing market, they may not be going anywhere this year.
This isn’t the first time we’ve had a difficult housing market for buyers and sellers in the peak season, but the situation now is unusually bad. Essentially freezing homeowner parents in place will have consequences that spillover into communities — both the ones that people are unable to leave, and the ones they’re unable to join.
Many parents decide where they want to live based on the schools available in an area. And some move more than once for that reason. Maybe a couple bought a before they had kids, when they weren’t even thinking about what school district they were in. Some people may have taken advantage of remote work to move to a new state without familiarizing themselves with the school systems there. Or maybe they’re happy with their elementary or middle school but not the high school. I can attest from personal experience that this is particularly common in a transplant-heavy metro area like Atlanta, where socioeconomics, politics, race, sports and geography (nobody wants a 45-minute drive to the private school that accepted them) all influence the educational priorities of parents.
But two huge factors will prevent parents from moving for schools this spring. The first by now is well-understood: So many homeowners have the “golden handcuffs” of a low mortgage rate they don’t want to give up. Last March, 30-year mortgage rates had just crossed over the 4% level. Now we’re looking at rates around 7%. For the hypothetical homeowner who would have to trade a 3% mortgage rate for a 7% one, that would mean an extra $16,000 in costs a year on a $400,000 mortgage — and that doesn’t account for the costs of moving.
The second factor that’s something of a surprise is just how bad the inventory situation remains for would-be homebuyers. According to Altos Research, there was another big drop in the available inventory of homes for sale last week, with the fewest number of single-family homes for sale since the middle of last June. And while there’s no way to tease this out of the aggregated data, I would bet the situation is even worse in neighborhoods zoned for the most highly rated schools, or that have desirable private and charter schools.
Most families that would like to move for schools this year will find that a 7% mortgage rate makes the finances too difficult — but even if they could make it work, there is nothing available to buy. I’ve written about how the lack of resale inventory makes homebuilders more important in terms of creating more inventory, but this isn’t a near-term solution and that construction isn’t necessarily happening in communities with highly regarded, well-established schools.
This lack of churn will pose headaches both for “departure” and “destination” communities. Schools have to budget and plan based on enrollment projections, and some schools that are used to getting an influx of kindergartners, sixth graders or ninth graders will find that they undershot their numbers because would-be enrollees couldn’t find housing. Similarly, some schools that are used to losing families after a certain grade will find that their fourth- or fifth-grade classes are bigger than they expected.
Parents who find themselves unexpectedly trapped in a school they don’t like should make the best of it. They can get more involved in the school to push for the education they want for their kids. That might bring some additional headaches for principals and administrators if they get more parents clamoring for change, but it also might hasten improvement.
It will be an interesting dynamic to watch play out. Homeowner same-house tenure has nearly doubled since the mid-2000s, from 6.5 years to more than 13 at the peak in 2020. Presumably, a lot of that is due to baby boomers who have been aging in place after buying homes between the late 1990s and mid-2000s. But until mortgage rates come down or housing inventory improves, we might find a lot of homeowner parents in their 30s and 40s unexpectedly being frozen in place. And if you can’t go where you want to be, then you’ve got to just make the best of where you are.
Market chatter now says 71 percent chance Fed does 50 bp.
Is it up to the FED alone to kill demand? And if the FED makes it harder to lend, does that make inflation worse? What role does the Federal government have in bringing things back in line again? As for housing, these people are nuts. This is the only time in my life I would say rent, keep your powder dry because paying these house prices at a 30 year rate that doubled in 12 months is suicide.
#3B – What happens next when rate increases don’t work?
Next up…The 4,000 year old Code of Hammurabi…
Price and WAGE controls and along with it a massive government bureaucracy and law enforcement to set and enforce price controls. Look how wonderfully it has worked for our health care system, employer sponsored health care has only been around since WWII. It was used as a way to hire people because they could not offer higher wages do to the wage and price controls set by our government back during the war.
It has worked out wonderfully, a new set of teeth is now never covered, so you have to shell out of pocket if you want to eat solid food again or take a trip to Mexico or the Caribbean to get new choppers on the cheap.
I was act my doctor yesterday, it’s a new year for my checkup, so it was $100 out of pocket for deductible and copay. I have a $1000 deductible, it won’t be a few months before we hit that one!
Fun times ahead folks.. Just wait for the legislation, they will of course use it to really give us really solid heath care. Just wait and see.
One of my wife’s students and his mother were shot and killed by the father then turned the gun on himself. Fgh coward. We need more guns
You have no idea what kind of healthcare you are headed for.
I am grateful for the speed dial numbers in my phone to all my connections as I would like to get in and out of these places in one piece. It’s the only benefit to my career, I can navigate and get the favors I need for all of the favors and reliability I have provided for years.
I really feel very sorry for some patients. They have no clue.
Was it a “take him to the cleaners” scenario?
“One of my wife’s students and his mother were shot and killed by the father then turned the gun on himself. Fgh coward. We need more guns”
Juice: If rate hikes don’t work, then I don’t know. Wage and price controls don’t combat inflation, they may prevent higher unemployment, but won’t reduce inflation. I believe we saw that during the Nixon years.
What I do know is that recklessness on the Feds part for over a decade got us to where we are now. Of course it will be the younger generations that pay for this.
re: ” 30 foot sound barrier’
I like the green sink in the garage. Somebody actually took the time to install plumbing for a sink in a garage. Why no toilet in the garage too? If you are out there working in your man cave semi-detached garage which also has a fridge, you can bet the homeowner took a piss in that sink instead of heading into the house.
Owner is in the car business or hobbyist based on the street view. Two hoopty cars in the driveway.
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/clifton/56-myrtle-ave-clifton-nj-07014–2005894152?mid=0#lil-streetViewTab
Fast: Monetary policy causes inflation, to kill it you have to tighten hard, if you tighten hard you have a hard landing. If tightening hard does not work, then I don’t know. All this nonsense about a soft landing, well I just don’t know how the Fed could have believed it, or if they even did. Now we have chatter out there that if the Fed does 50bp end of March, then they will lose credibility after indicating 25bp. Seriously? Lose their credibility??
“3b says…Market chatter now says 71 percent chance Fed does 50 bp.”
Dashboard it brother.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
3b says:
March 8, 2023 at 9:18 am
Of course it will be the younger generations that pay for this.
This was always the plan. Boomer spent, leave the debt for the youth.
Boomer now is screaming ” Don’t buy anything from China, they are your enemy.”
Yeah, boomer, STFU. It was your desire to make money in the stock market sending manufacturing to China. You profited by making a markup on things you were too lazy to produce yourself. And now that you have the last roof, car, and kitchen appliance you will ever need before you take your dirt nap you squawk about how no one should buy from China who manufactures anything that you can actually afford unlike your overpriced “Eddie inspected” rat trap.
Yup, that’s what you did.
Now before some of you defend yourselves, no, it isn’t all of you. But it is the system that was created during that tenure.
3B – Nixon years barely attempted price controls. WWII wage and price controls were very very real and enforced by a government bureaucracy called the Office of Price Administration.
https://tinyurl.com/3ejccjyh
You have to prevent wage increases to really stop inflation. People will stop overpaying for stuff like expensive eggs when they don’t have money.
Again it’s different this time the man behind the curtain says, they think they can lick inflation with slowing lending only. That may not be true. The markets are just not that rational.
2 car Garage with (unfinished -Loft)above garage.
Place for dad to live when mom isn’t happy with her anniversary present.
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/clifton/56-myrtle-ave-clifton-nj-07014–2005894152?mid=0#lil-streetViewTab
Left: I can add it with my St Patricks Day clock!
That Jungle Palace gives new meaning to smells like cat piss. There is no way that place does not stink of cats. Demolish it.
Juice: I just noted Nixon years, but WW2 era is another story. The Office of Price Administration, sounds Socialist! Who knows we could be heading that way.
Plenty of money around. Our new 23 year old employees are having fun buying multiple YSL 2500k purses, taking 5k vacations, and inspecting their online dates to see how much money they have based on their jewelry.
One was talking about how she hooked up with a guy because of his Van Cleef bracelet. In the next breath, she was pissed that she took some fantastic photos of him which, after he dumped her greedy azz, is using them in his online dating profile.
#B – Have to remember the Fed says today’s inflation is caused by demand-side forces.
It’s a misguided orientation. Just look at Grim’s stat above on the record number of containers arriving at our ports.
There is nothing the Fed can do to influence supply, as we do not make jack shit here anymore. Who do you think finances the production of all of that merchandise made elsewhere?
The question should be is Powell going to burn it all down to prove he is right?
Juice: Good points, and if he does not burn it down?? We had nonsense earlier in the year about pausing and then pivoting all before the end of the year.
3b says:
March 8, 2023 at 9:24 am
“Monetary policy causes inflation…”
While I largely agree with this, I don’t think you can discount the impact of Joe’s extraordinarily reckless fiscal policy and his self-defeating energy policy, as well as the equally reckless spending of blue state governors. So the Fed isn’t only fighting against it’s own policy mistakes, it’s also fighting policy disasters like Joe’s Inflation Production Act and Guv Phil having rocketed NJ spending from $35B to $50B. Wait for another inflation spike if Joe somehow gets his disaster-waiting-to-happen student loan giveaway!
Lol just goota love the news cycle, it’s every day now in new feeds with these clowns. Fucking frog prince and his actress christen their child in the Episcopal Church with Tyler Perry as godfather, as GASP the King does not show up. Markle had to convert to Anglican to get married to Prince Harry, it was a condition for the Royal Wedding and she was baptized in the Anglican church beforehand. Now they are batting for another team the American church that does not swear allegiance to the King.
I hope the King yanks their titles and banishes them from the realm.
Small: I don’t disagree.
3B – Burn down means massive unemployment. Real Estate industry is first. Guy up the street from me is in the mortgage business, he just pumped about $400,000 into a remodel and apparently wife still hates the place. He also dumped $2000 to pay some landscaper to decorate his house with rented Christmas lights.
I ran into him in January at our neighborhood Christmas party, he told me business was bad. Few leads etc, this spring will probably be shades of what happened during the Great Recession.
He and his people will be first to go. Just like what began in 2007 that led to millions of people losing their jobs and homes when the housing market collapsed.
I am very tempted to sell ASAP, but then again have to live somewhere.
Juice: I figured that was what you meant, but will they if it means and 8 or 9 percent FFR for example? I feel sorry for your neighbor, but that’s recklessness on his part, I guess to keep the old gal happy. I would tell her to feck off!!
I am very tempted to sell ASAP, but then again have to live somewhere.
There’s the dilemma. What to do if you sell?
Juice: Didn’t one of those royals get evicted from some fancy cottage?
3b – 8 or 9 percent is like taking the covid vaccine to cure cancer.
We are at 4.57% now. We go anywhere near 8% and it all crashes hard.
3B- My point is off with their heads already. I don’t want to see them in my news feeds, but unfortunaly it’s pervasive and invasive technology that makes that happen.
Juice: 4.5 now , and not working, what do we need 6 or 7 ? Does that do it, who knows?
Royals have plenty of money. I get it, she is attractive- but that one was a stick of kryptonite to him.
They wanted another Kate. She isn’t that.
But I don’t like it that the “family” takes it out on the children.
Cretins.
SGC your post, spot on.
“There’s the dilemma. What to do if you sell?”
Downsize and rent until the sh1t hits the fan. Which reminds me…
ChiFi, you getting ready to finally buy some RE of your own?
Juice Box says:
“you can bet the homeowner took a piss in that sink instead of heading into the house.”
It’s the test of being a real man. If you can piss in the sink without a stepstool, you are over 6 feet tall.
https://bit.ly/3Jpgte2
3b – re:” Does that do it”
Does that do it exactly curb demand in free range chicken? That will show the Chinese to stop sending up millions of containers of finished goods.
They are also thankful cause you automatically never leave the toilet seat up. Haha.
One year Goldman paper 569.4
Juice: I would think the English would be tired of this royal family crap, but they do love their monarchy!
Someone better put a DNR on DNA.
3b says:
March 8, 2023 at 10:09 am
“I feel sorry for your neighbor, but that’s recklessness on his part, I guess to keep the old gal happy. I would tell her to feck off!!”
You got kids? Just a heads up, lawyers are more expensive than general contractors.
You did read Trick’s message from today didn’t you? Things like that send families over the edge.
What does DNA stand for?
Juice: Blackrock says “reasonable” chance Fed raises rates to 6 percent and leaves then there for an extended period of time.
Just the act of getting to 5 or 5.5 and leaving it there for a sustained period of time will do plenty. They are almost done. But many people still haven’t gotten the memo that you can get risk free 5% for 3-24 months.
Juice Box says:
March 8, 2023 at 10:18 am
3b – 8 or 9 percent is like taking the covid vaccine to cure cancer.
We are at 4.57% now. We go anywhere near 8% and it all crashes hard.
Do Not Resuscitate Assholes
Phoenix says:
March 8, 2023 at 10:35 am
What does DNA stand for?
Close, but this is the real one.
National Dyslexic Association
3b,
I’ve heard of all of those names, but couldn’t tell you what a single one of them royal asses actually look like. I hear about the royalty and give it about as much attention as I do Cramer or The Financial Samurai. None are worth wasting a single brain cell on.
When I ride the Peloton, I leave CNBC on in the background to see the market gyrations. I have to say, it’s a much better network with the sound turned off than on.
With that said, headed up to my room to pedal off breakfast and lunch.
QT continues…will it ever “bite”?
*DNA..stock Pumpkin is pumping
Have to go work on a project. Enjoy this last one:
https://bit.ly/3J886Cu
Definitely
Not
Apple
Downsize and rent until the sh1t hits the fan.
Yep. I said it earlier in this thread. I never thought renting was a good idea. I do now.
Chicago: We shall see, but if that’s the case do 50 in March and in May and be done with it.
Lib : I don’t know who’s who in the Royal family and don’t care, just crap I see in passing. The whole concept of monarchy in this day and age is nonsense, but the Brits like it, so there business.
Seriously looks like this is the bottom.
For god’s sake…take away the cash and real estate value and the company is under a billion cap right now….this f/ing cheap. To each and their own…I don’t want to be accused of pumping this. I could care less if people buy or not.
Libturd says:
March 8, 2023 at 10:33 am
Someone better put a DNR on DNA.
Trick.
We have a front row seat to a civilization’s collapse. The signs are everywhere.
BJ,
You know I have been an optimist on this blog for past 10 years. I am seriously getting scared. They are going to crash this. Real estate is at a standstill….barely any transactions. Now do the math on the impact to the rest of the economy as no one is moving into new homes and buying chit. We are in BIG trouble right now if they don’t get this under control quickly. I would not want to be in the position of the Fed right now.
Might need to go long on that comment
Don’t worry Bumpy..I heard from a very smart person that housing demand can’t be stopped bc millennials are rich and prices/rates don’t matter. You don’t get it. He also said that next liquidity cycle from Fed is coming . Oh, stocks are cheap..load up
Bystander: The Fed created this problem with low / negative rates,/ QE, that drove assets to be wildly inflated. Then the BS was it’s all driven by demand.
“It’s time you realized that you have something in you more powerful and miraculous than the things that affect you and make you dance like a puppet.” – Marcus Aurelius
Does anyone know when that O’Biden Inflation Abduction Act kicks in?
And in further news:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOGUqzPqy3E
Fast: you saw my post yesterday?
You back? This place is like a bad relationship that you just can’t shake….. right? You need to stop, but she is just too good in the sack.
ExEx says:
March 8, 2023 at 12:42 pm
“It’s time you realized that you have something in you more powerful and miraculous than the things that affect you and make you dance like a puppet.” – Marcus Aurelius
Shhh…………
Libturd says:
March 8, 2023 at 10:25 am
“There’s the dilemma. What to do if you sell?”
Downsize and rent until the sh1t hits the fan. Which reminds me…
ChiFi, you getting ready to finally buy some RE of your own?
Before 9AM you need to watch Bloomberg instead………. 50,000x better…… even 9-10AM is fairly good.
Libturd says:
March 8, 2023 at 10:39 am
3b,
I’ve heard of all of those names, but couldn’t tell you what a single one of them royal asses actually look like. I hear about the royalty and give it about as much attention as I do Cramer or The Financial Samurai. None are worth wasting a single brain cell on.
When I ride the Peloton, I leave CNBC on in the background to see the market gyrations. I have to say, it’s a much better network with the sound turned off than on.
With that said, headed up to my room to pedal off breakfast and lunch.
12:52 that’s a pretty apt description.
ChiFi,
Fast: you saw my post yesterday?
Ah! Yes, I did. Almost forgot. lol.
Both Chase and Marcus followed up with me after I pulled a decent chunk of change to ladder direct with the treasury. Chase keeps pushing their CD products, which is not something anybody wants to be in at the moment.
It was driven by demand….Now they are artificially destroying it.
Do you understand that as the price of an asset goes up, and if labor doesn’t keep up, you need to increase lending at a lower and lower cost. What the Fed has done in the past year is raise rates at a drastic pace. It increased the cost so much that it artificially killed the housing market. There is demand, but they made it too expensive for someone to buy. Understand this…I am not coming from an attacking position, just trying to help you understand.
3b says:
March 8, 2023 at 12:22 pm
Bystander: The Fed created this problem with low / negative rates,/ QE, that drove assets to be wildly inflated. Then the BS was it’s all driven by demand.
“For god’s sake…take away the cash and real estate value and the company is under a billion cap right now….this f/ing cheap.”
Again, to be educational, so if something comes across as abrupt it is not meant that way…
‘this is cheap’….Relative to what? Obvious answer is to value. What is the value of something that you have to write a regular check to support? Hint, you’ve just defined a liability, not an asset…assets have value, liabilities don’t….
The analysis pro-forming for cash is valid, but only for cash flow positive companies, because their balance sheet cash is excess. For companies like DNA you can’t proform because that cash is there specifically to be spent down, it is not excess, everyone knows it will disappear, that is the intent.
So then let’s refresh how that cash burn calendar works for biotechs….if a cash burning biotech company gets to the point where the amount of cash on the balance sheet is less than 18 months of funding required it is game over. Every participant in the market takes a pass on funding that entity at that point because it is evident that in the very near future any interested party will be able to buy the shares (investors) or the underlying assets (corporate liquidation) much cheaper as the entity rapidly loses liquidity and operations wind down.
So, now, the real question…how much cash is DNA burning annually and when does it hit that 18 month cash on the balance sheet threshold?
For each of 2021 and 2022 the company burned $250 million in its operations and dropped $50m on property and equipment. That’s $300 million of annual mandatory cash burn…the actual amount was higher but included discretionary items that can be cut in a cash emergency (like M&A).
But wait….both years included extraordinary amounts for COVID testing which is rapidly disappearing…for 2022 they received $299 million in covid testing revenue, that number is falling off a cliff being only $32m in the 4th quarter; in 2020 it was only $18 million….so what is the math there? Against the total $299 million of COVID testing revenue in 2022 they booked $183 million of direct costs…that means there is up to $115 million of cash that came in during 2022 much of which will not be there in 2023…let’s avoid too much detail and say they are able to keep $35 million of that positive cash contribution…that means they have $80 million more of cash needs in 2023 than in 2022
In other words, expect this company’s operations and expenditures to burn $380 million of cash in 2023.
If we use that number as the annual rate – may be a little aggressive but let’s roll with it – that means the threshold of 18 months of cash burn coverage, the bright red line, is $570 million of cash on the balance sheet.
As we are nearly a quarter of the way into the year the $1.3 billion of cash they showed at year end is likely closer to $1.2B…subtract out the $570 million and they have $630 million of cash to spend before they need a raise. At $380m p.a. that gives them 1.6 years or 20 months before a raise. And that is assuming they take it down to the wire.
There are major issues here…no one debates the value of the science or the functionality of the products and services…the problem is despite all the brilliant scientific management their corporate management is downright poor…they have painted themselves into a horrible capital structure that not only is a major contributor to their near penny stock share price but greatly diminishes their ability to raise further capital. They grossly missed their own forecasts from less than a year ago, losing more than double what they projected in 2021 despite putting those forecasts out when the year was half over. They halved this year’s revenue forecast just last week…that is just unheard of anywhere. And on their own prior rosy projections – before the very recent steeper losses and missed revenue – they themselves said they would be still be burning cash through 2024 which now with the above issues has to be well into 2025 or beyond…
Bottom line, there is a capital raise or capital restructuring somewhere in this company’s future sometime in the next 20 months….and with poor *corporate* management, a horrific capital structure, and a stock trading at a buck and change there is zero incentive for anyone to come in now. Unless and until this happens it will continue to bounce of the depths of the ocean floor….
And, as I posted here at the time and when I exited, the company told you all of this in mid-November when they did a capital raise at $2.67.
DNA is just another bastard child of a SPAC merger to fleece the unsophiscated.
Of the hundreds of SPAC mergers less than 10% trade above their offering price, investors who have held on to the stocks have been left with huge losses.
Here is a post spac tracking index. All garbage if not all and why do you think the SEC cracked down?
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPACPOST
BananaJoe says:
March 8, 2023 at 11:21 am
Trick.
We have a front row seat to a civilization’s collapse. The signs are everywhere.
“May you live in interesting times”
Here is the funny thing. At some point, the morons will get DNA up to $2 on nothing more than message board conjecture. But he won’t sell. He’ll believe the hype that was generated from the guy who bout 100K shares at $1.90 and will be selling at $2.00.
To Nov 25 at 571.3
As good as that sounds, it is still tight compared to no credit risk Treasury. Something needs to give…..
Chicago says:
March 8, 2023 at 10:32 am
One year Goldman paper 569.4
Those are the traders. They will miss the big run. They always do. That’s what buffet was talking about with what I shared yesterday…..They always miss the real money by selling too early. Just buy and hold good companies….and I am pretty sure this company is going to be an all-star down the road. Human civilization needs this science to survive long-term….it’s the future.
Libturd says:
March 8, 2023 at 1:50 pm
Here is the funny thing. At some point, the morons will get DNA up to $2 on nothing more than message board conjecture. But he won’t sell. He’ll believe the hype that was generated from the guy who bout 100K shares at $1.90 and will be selling at $2.00.
Sure Phoenix, take the good with the bad. That’s the best you can do. Just don’t ask me to entertain your delusions or celebrate the breakdown. I’m not doing it.
I remember people bashing sirius back in 2009. I saw it for what it was…a great value. I wanted to buy at .10….the shorts and gloomers said it was toast and drove it down to .05. A few years later it was almost 4 dollars. Never again, will I doubt myself. Never… I know DNA is worth a lot more than it is now, they just have to get to the point where the avg investor sees and understands it too. It will come…this management team is intent on creating a trillion dollar market cap beast.
If the recession turns into a bad one like 2008…DNA may fall below 1. I will def be buying if they continue on their current path that they are on. Hardest buys are the best buys….
I appreciate your post…I really do. Just keep in mind that when a company becomes a “clear buy,” it’s already too late. The good money has already been made. You have to take risks to win big. There is no way around it. This is a risk I am willing to take. Let me share with you this article..let me find it. I think it breaks down the upside and downside of DNA perfectly. Really good DD piece on DNA.
leftwing says:
March 8, 2023 at 1:20 pm
Give this a read…awesome free DD on DNA.
https://www.nanalyze.com/2023/03/ginkgo-bioworks-stock-going-long/
“The Price is Finally Right
As we mentioned earlier, Ginkgo Bioworks stock is finally trading at a simple valuation ratio (market cap/annualized revenue) where we could consider an investment. In the span of about 18 months, the company has lost about 80% of its original valuation at the time of the SPAC merger. Don’t forget baked into the price are 10 other companies that Ginkgo has acquired, including a half-dozen in 2022 alone. The biggest name of the bunch, Zymergen, had IPO’d in April 2021 with a market cap of $3 billion. Ginkgo picked up the company for just 10% of that price through an all-stock transition, with the intent of absorbing and integrating Zymergen’s automation and software capabilities. You’re getting Zymergen + Gingko which collectively commanded an $18 billion valuation at IPO now at a valuation of just $2.85 billion.
The price is right, but is Ginkgo Bioworks stock the right synbio stock to own at any price?
A Boulevard of Broken Dreams
Investors are wise to exercise extreme caution when looking for a silver needle in the haystack of synthetic biology stocks. Ever since the days of Intrexon (we were investors), there have been a myriad of failures and broken promises. The similarities between Intrexon’s EEC business model and Ginkgo’s “pay us in equity” model can’t be ignored. Then you have Zymergen which came out of the gates and imploded just months later. Were those ashes really worth gathering up? Ginkgo thought so. Then there’s Amyris and all their related party revenues and continuing struggles. Further failures in the synbio space can be found in our piece on WTF is Going on with Synbio Stocks.
Admittedly, we were so excited by the Ginkgo Bioworks story that we dipped our toes in the water for their SPAC debut, only quickly pulling them out after realizing we were breaking our own rules. That decision means we avoided the 86% drop in share price that followed. Before climbing back on board, we want to vet this firm six ways to Sunday so that we can enter our position with conviction and assurance. As risk-averse investors, the situation demands such rigor.
Conclusion
There are still a lot of outstanding issues, starting with $1.9 billion in stock-based compensation that accounted for most of the $2.2 billion in 2022 losses. Other questions we’ll consider: How much should investors be worried about the lack of downstream revenues from industrial customers? How viable is the nascent biopharma business? Even with $1.3 billion in cash and assets, how much runway does Ginkgo Bioworks have? The dust is just now settling on all those 2022 acquisitions, so can we expect a big write-off on goodwill impairment?
Readers keen on Ginkgo Bioworks will definitely want to keep an eye out for our next piece where we evaluate the risk-reward on offer from the leading story in synthetic biology today.
Tech investing is extremely risky. Minimize your risk with our stock research, investment tools, and portfolios, and find out which tech stocks you should avoid.
Please read the entire article so that you realize why I am taking on this risk/reward opportunity.
And btw, I am firm believer in bio-tech finally becoming a serious industry. That’s why I love DNA. The combination of AI, robotics, tech, and bio field is all coming together right here…right now.
I don’t expect the overall equity market to do well….I think you have to stock pick this decade. Not positive, but just what I see. TINA is not happening right now. So lose that liquidity and support.
“Here is the funny thing. At some point, the morons will get DNA up to $2 on nothing more than message board conjecture. But he won’t sell.”
He’s jammed up, with sunk cost fallacy…$2.37 cost basis right now….
Having eviscerated the company above I would note there will likely be a little sigh of relief (stock bump) when the 10K comes out and presumably shows they aren’t in direct conflict with their accountants. Pretty ballsy move by the company to publish full and detailed financials, unaudited…that would only be done by a management team that was 100% certain the numbers wouldn’t change, the fact that the stock is still at all time lows after this just shows how tentative the market is on this specific *corporate* management team…
There is also literally a triple in here somewhere in the low probability event some credible (ie, not CW) private equity player in the space comes in, makes a major investment, maybe ideally bring some relevant business to fold in, and most importantly bring/insists on getting credible corporate management while reworking the capital structure as part of the offer. Very low probability event, but powerful. Eventually, something will need to be done and the open question with this management team is will they do the right thing.
Given all the shit I’ve typed there are a couple ways to play this if you want…..
The 9/15 1.00C contracts can be bought for 0.50 (that’s 50 bucks for a hundred share equivalent). I don’t think I’ve ever recommended and very rarely done a straight purchase long of an option. But if you think a pop is in the cards the measures of why one would normally not do this type of purchase (greeks) are in your favor…the trade is basically a binary type position that these shares at 1.30 can move up 0.20 in the next six months or so, anything above that is one-for-one return gravy…you do this trade looking for a sharper pop on the 10K or other rationalization of any of the issues I mentioned….highly leveraged to the upside, 100% loss over six months if she doesn’t break 1.50.
The other trade, and please don’t do this if you haven’t done this type of trade in the past, but if you wanted to take the position that this company won’t go bankrupt in the next six months (not a bad bet) then write the 9/15 1.00P for 0.15…..your brokerage will give you 15 cents credit on that trade meaning that as long as the shares stay above 0.85 you keep that money and profit. If the shares go to 0.85 it basically means the market thinks they are going out of business which is not likely, and you break even. Anything below 0.85 you are a dollar for dollar loss…
Bottom line on this type of trade, which I like a lot is so long as the shares don’t decline to 1.00 from here (a 25% decline) you will get a 17% actual return (about 30% annualized). You also have a breakeven at a share price of 0.85 which is down 35% from here.
That is a solid asymmetric payoff…breakeven at 35% down, and a 30% annualized return even if the shares decline by 25%. Your downside is you lose 5x your money if the shares go to zero…which is why you don’t touch this type of trade if you haven’t done one previously.
Was going to do this trade a few days ago but I will only do it if I can get 700 or more contracts (70,000 share equivalent) and every time the chain shows 0.15 bid for a few thousand contracts someone keeps stepping in with a dozen contracts or so and fucking things up…we’ll see. Not sure I really want to get back involved here, although an effective 0.85 cost basis doesn’t appear to suck…
Code Red at Google for Chat bots.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-08/chatgpt-success-drives-google-to-put-ai-in-all-its-products#xj4y7vzkg
This dude is a good source of information if you need to research biotech. He’s been investing in biotech for 25 years.
https://www.biotech2k.com/
Here is the company profile from his site.
“Last Updated 3/1/2023
Ginkgo Bioworks
Profile
Ginkgo is a Commercial Research Organization that is the leader in Synthetic Biology. They are driving down cost by driving up a level of scale that is commercially beneficial to customers. They are focused on 2 key franchises with synthetic biology and biosecurity. The foundry and codebase make up their synthetic biology platform. Synthetic Biology brings together cell engineering, chemistry and genetic editing to alter the DNA of cells to create new organisms with new purpose. Their subsidiary Concentric is focused on biosecurity solutions. This is about developing technologies to detect, test, track and predict pathogens and outbreaks. We live in a world where bioterrorism is one of the biggest risks we face.
Management
I have been following Ginkgo and Jason Kelly since they went public. I know a lot of people find him to be smug and arrogant. I think he has done a really good job. Recently, I have been really concerned with all the insider sales from their stock awards. Jason Kelly addressed the issue on their earnings call. I think he took on a very hard question and handled it with grace and ease. I have even more respect for him after. I think they are focused on the long term company building and not just impressing analysts for the next quarter.
Science
The foundry is all about engineering living organisms. Cells are encoded with DNA which acts as the programming for that cell. It doesn’t matter if it is a human T cell, a bacteria or a yeast cell. If you learn how to change the DNA of living cells, you can recode their programming to make them do whatever you want. The codebase is that database that Ginkgo has for all that genetic programming information. With synthetic biology, we can rewrite life and create new organisms with new purposes. This can be a yeast that makes a mediation or ingredient for manufacturing. It could even be something that changes the world like bacteria that creates fertilizer in the fields or an algae cell that cleans carbon emissions from the environment. We can create safe bacteria in the food and water that emit a glow when they come in contact with harmful pathogens or toxins.
Biosecurity is about protecting this new world of biology from pathogens that can harm us. This is about tracking and preventing pandemics. We live in a world where we have the tools for bad people to create a pathogen that could wipe out the entire world. We need to have the tools to be able to detect, track, contain and prevent these types of events. Pathogens do not respect borders which makes them a global threat. The biosecurity franchise is all about building the tools to test and the software to track and model outbreaks.
Valuation
Cash $1.3 billion
Foundry only earns about $175 million in sales right now. That is because this platform is like a pipeline for other biotech companies. Programs are put into the foundry when a company partners with Ginkgo. It can take years for these programs to be completed to the level of commercial launch. They get paid a small amount for their work, but most of the value is in the form of Equity Stakes, Royalties and Milestones. The key here is to watch the number of programs they have in their pipeline. That is the indicator of potential future revenues. I think they could reach $1 billion in foundry revenues in the next 7 to 10 years. I would give this a value of $1.75 billion based on realistic price to sales on their current foundry sales.
Biosecurity has been really strong since Covid. There is some concern it could fall off as Covid sales fade. This started to happen as Covid testing sales slow and are being replaced by recurring longer term revenues from their preventive programs. Right now, they are doing $100 million in biosecurity sales. That gives it a value of about $1 billion in value based on a realistic price to sales.
The pipeline of the foundry has well over $2 billion in downstream value in the programs from 2022 alone. I would venture that this pipeline is much bigger than that. I would give this a standard $500 million valuation for a typical early stage clinical pipeline.
All in, that is a $4.55 billion market cap. Based on the 1.6 billion shares outstanding , that comes to $2.84.
Left, you’re talking to a wall.
Pumps, you’re around forty years old, yes? How have you not been through this boiler room right of passage? At your age (and apparent gullibility) I don’t believe for a second that this is shaping up to be your first big penny loser.
Boiler Room? Wtf are you talking about? DNA is not pump and dump.
They are trying to build a real business of tomorrow. They are going to do it….if they don’t they will get bought out and someone else will. You have to understand that the biotech field is high risk/high reward. Volatile as f/k as nothing is guaranteed in an upcoming field.
It’s finally going to go mainstream….This is my true belief. It’s finally going to become a dominant new sector….hence, why I am putting my money where my mouth is. This is an opportunity that is something special. You aren’t going to get this kind of investment opportunity often…comes around a few times in your life. If it works, it will change your life and it will change the world you will live in. I truly believe this is inevitable with the biotech sector. It’s going to dominate.
Boomer,
Do you understand that the market is not rational? This current DNA price is due to shorts and macro…simple as that. Who the f’k do you think is selling in the 1.20s and 1.30s? These f/kers are washing their shares and they knew they had access to cover with insider selling. Right now, pro shorts have more than likely moved on….it’s retail shorts still taking on the risk of shorting at this position. I think I read that 87% of the volume on DNA this week was short volume. So understand the short term games being played by short traders and longs. I don’t care about their games…they give me access to really cheap shares. I just accumulate and hold for the long-term.
Pumpkin, again, honest opinion to be helpful…clicked through and spent a few minutes there….
Please get some better resources…first impressions…read his explanation of the insider sales. It literally does not say anything. Really, really read it. Not scan it but critically read it. A Chatbot could do a better job. Not a single fact, analysis, explanation, or challenge. Just a ‘feeling’ after hearing the CEO’s demeanor…c’mon, you know better.
He trades on Robinhood. Case closed. It’s a toy. Not a brokerage. Anyone who tells you they know what they are doing but uses RH…run.
His cost basis in DNA is 6.37. That means he grabbed shares during the major downdraft when everyone else in the world was selling and the Fed was literally saying out loud all over every media they were raising rates. You were patient enough to at least wait until 3.20. Why would you take advice from someone who has worse entry parameters than yourself?
I’m not even going to delve into the analysis above because of the holes but I can’t let this pass….quote…there is concern biosecurity may ‘fall off’ but he somehow values it at 10x trailing sales (!) nonetheless…there is no ‘concern’, it is. Fact. I put the numbers above…pre-covid biosecurity was only a measly $18m in annual revenue in 2020, went to $178m in 2021, and $299m in 2022, all on the back of covid…but…the last quarter of 2022 was only $32m compared to $106m in the same quarter of 2021.
10x sales is an insane multiple to begin with for any testing service…for a service that is declining 70% year-over-year?!….JFC if that business were offered for sale there wouldn’t be a buyer at any price, let alone $1B…Please, please don’t follow this guy he has no idea. He will damage you.
As we speak…DNA is expanding and building in Boston’s bio sector. Why? Why would a boiler room company going broke be expanding their real estate footprint?
The ceo addressed it. This guy was bashing DNA for the insider sales and changed his tune after hearing the brutally honest reason for the sales. What ceo that is insider selling to enrich themselves even addresses the issue on a guidance call? This CEO is transparent and honest. Go watch the guidance call from last week…listen to what kelly says about the insider sales.
“Please get some better resources…first impressions…read his explanation of the insider sales. It literally does not say anything. Really, really read it. Not scan it but critically read it. A Chatbot could do a better job. Not a single fact, analysis, explanation, or challenge. Just a ‘feeling’ after hearing the CEO’s demeanor…c’mon, you know better”
The guy understands the science. He is on point. He might not be perfect, but he makes money investing in biotech. He survived 2001 era…
He also openly said that he knew it was overvalued at 10 dollars, but made a mistake by buying too early due to falling in love with the long-term science potential. He admitted and owned it. I respect that.
He left his long-term brokerage after 25 years due to f/king him on a trade. So he is trying out the “new” brokerages and then writing up a report on what he thinks about them.
“He trades on Robinhood. Case closed. It’s a toy. Not a brokerage. Anyone who tells you they know what they are doing but uses RH…run.”
And thank you. lefty….appreciate this all. Keeps me on my toes.
Pumpkin, it’s not a boiler room.
But it is grossly mismanaged from a *corporate* perspective and there inevitably will be a funding cliff there. The company is telling you that with a megaphone when they raise equity capital at a share price of $2.67 (rather than use existing cash balances). Also, they have started conserving cash by bringing other investors into what *they* identify as their ‘crown jewels’, the residuals on product development. Again, you don’t give up equity interest in your ‘crown jewels’ when you have $1.3B of cash on the balance sheet unless you have concerns…
The bad news…they seriously fucked up corporate basics…capital structure, shareholder base, business forecasting, Street management, investment banking relationships, cash burn management….the good news is they apparently realize it….the real question for this company?
Has less to do with the science – because that is solid – and is all about the above corporate issues and management’s willingness and ability to effect those changes. It may just be too late even if they are amenable, the old aircraft carrier analogy…
I posted earlier a good, solid fact based analysis that they have probably a year and a half to make major corporate fixes before it is demonstrably too late…until then, absent that low probability, high payout ‘black swan’ event I referenced this thing may get back up around your cost basis in the mid-twos but other wise it’s dead money until those bigger issues are resolved. And time is not on their side, every day the issues aren’t addressed the closer and larger they become. We’ll see.
Ex: you out there….. “but time is money!”
https://youtu.be/XBCKYdX2c6o?t=361
The money quote of 2023 guaranteed, and we are only in March.
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 8, 2023 at 2:40 pm
And btw, I am firm believer in bio-tech finally becoming a serious industry
I’m trying to sort through the implications of this story, because it either represents a new paradigm opportunity, or far more troubling, merely an extension of the current sports betting business model.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/wwe-betting-scripted-match-results.html
Sports betting is going to ruin more lives than drugs and alcohol. It’s a bold statement. Just watch as it plays out over the next few years.
I also expect to see lots of athletes, coaches, referees, etc., go down for fixing outcomes. Though, with the increased sportsbetting handle, it will still be worth it.
On the Super bowl alone, 51 million American’s wagered 16 billion. That’s nearly one in 7 Americans sports betting. This number will continue to double over the next few years as more states get in on legalizing it. I’m guessing the cheating will become so bad, that the credibility of most sporting events will be questioned. This could have a real negative impact on the entire pro sports industry.
Why am I always attack sports betting? Because psychologically, the hook (that you know so much about the teams playing that you have an advantage over the book) is so easy to overlook. Especially with the confirmation bias you will occasionally experience.
Want to start an extremely lucrative business? Open up a clinic that specifically treats sports betting addiction. It will do way better than DNA. Trust me!
The kids in high school already place 30 bets a night on Draft Kings. They also always talk about how much they win. Never how much they lose. Funny story, a lot of them made money because the Jet’s defensive coach apparently lives in town and his son leaked the draft pick to the kids in town so they all bet.
Silvergate shutting down, returning all deposits.
Cheapo, you must have seen this. Great idea.
Used car prices headed up. Sell yours safely, privately and get retail vs wholesale.
https://privateauto.com
Pumpkin, just catching up on stuff you typed as I was replying to prior posts of yours…couple thoughts, again offered in good faith.
At the risk of sounding arrogant I don’t need to read anyone’s ideas on this company, the space, or how it relates to the market. It was my (successful) career. I get it much better than they do.
The first guy, the RH guy, who is leaving Merrill because they ‘screwed him over on a trade’, who is going to Robinhood, and whose entire analysis of the insider sales is comprised of repeating the phrase ‘really good’ twice like a freshman HS kid writing his first essay is useless. If he were actually in the industry in 2001 then I’m in my twenties, 6′ 1″, full shock of blonde hair, cut and carved with a 21 BMI. He will hurt you. Close that website and don’t reopen it.
The ‘Nanalyzer’ guy…follow him. Solid analysis, great grasp of the issues and nuances. He’s good.
Listen, CEOs in the sciences are tough people to interact with…tech guys but even moreso biological guys…they are on a different intellectual level. But…the smart ones are smart enough to realize that they don’t know what they don’t know and able to shift gears and entrust ‘mundane’ duties to someone else.
The others…these DNA guys, Zuck as his actions and attitudes took his stock from 160 to 90 until he cried uncle…they learn the hard way.
They believe they are so smart that regardless of what the professionals who have been doing something for decades (and their firms for over a century) and whom they hire specifically to advise them at the end of the aren’t relevant…or, that if they personally don’t think something away from their science is meaningful, well, it isn’t and they ignore it.
Despite, or maybe because of, occupying an entirely different plane they end up screwing the pooch on what everyone would actually agree is the easy part, the corporate side.
The smart ones realize and recover (Zuck to Wall Street: mea culpa)…the others, well, as I’ve said before I can give you a list as long as my arm of great technical companies that get bought up for ‘takeunder’ M&A prices, low single digits, when reality finally hits them in the face.
DNA is on that cusp now. Their ability to be a corporate and not just a really exciting bench lab is almost exclusively going to determine their success from here, not their science. And on that issue the jury is still out.
Good luck.
Chi, thoughts?
“WARNING: the Money Supply is officially contracting.
This has only happened 4 previous times in last 150 years.
Each time a Depression with double-digit unemployment rates followed.”
https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1633536085308366866
Anyone remember Webvan, the grocery delivery service that went bust about 20 years ago? They were burning through their cash yet were spending money painting the interiors of their warehouses. Had an in-law who thought he was a genius growth investor. Tried to explain to him how irrational it was to paint interiors when you are cash flow negative and should make you wonder what other things they are wasting money on. Same guy had half his 401k in Lucent and the other half in an internet fund back in 2000. Took a nice 90%+ hit on those and rode webvan down to zero.
“The Great Pumpkin says:
March 8, 2023 at 3:22 pm
As we speak…DNA is expanding and building in Boston’s bio sector. Why? Why would a boiler room company going broke be expanding their real estate footprint?”
Liquidity is everything. I was being dead serious earlier when I said I am starting to get scared that this might be a crash landing.
Nomad says:
March 8, 2023 at 5:32 pm
Chi, thoughts?
“WARNING: the Money Supply is officially contracting.
This has only happened 4 previous times in last 150 years.
Each time a Depression with double-digit unemployment rates followed.”
https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1633536085308366866
Now this has me scared. They are geniuses when it comes to science…just hope they don’t think they are geniuses at business.
“They believe they are so smart that regardless of what the professionals who have been doing something for decades (and their firms for over a century) and whom they hire specifically to advise them at the end of the aren’t relevant…or, that if they personally don’t think something away from their science is meaningful, well, it isn’t and they ignore it.”
Great idea right here.
“Want to start an extremely lucrative business? Open up a clinic that specifically treats sports betting addiction. It will do way better than DNA. Trust me!”
#4 in that thread
Nomad says:
March 8, 2023 at 5:32 pm
Chi, thoughts?
“WARNING: the Money Supply is officially contracting.
This has only happened 4 previous times in last 150 years.
Each time a Depression with double-digit unemployment rates followed.”
https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1633536085308366866
Boeheim pretty much fired after 47 years at Syracuse. End of an era. Right move..guy just would not retire and program run into ground. Still, last of the old Big East and won alot of games.
Tiger is terrible For kicking this gold digger to the curb, jury should give her 100 million.
https://nypost.com/2023/03/08/tiger-woods-tricked-ex-girlfriend-erica-herman-into-leaving-home-docs/
Of course, the old “sexual abuse” claim. When all else fails, claim sexual abuse. Have to love these lawyer tactics.
“EXCLUSIVE: Tiger Woods’ ex Erica Herman claims he sexually abused her as she sues for $30m”