Pandemic boomtowns get crushed

From the Real Deal:

US home prices drop annually for first time in 12 years

How long has it been since the median U.S home price fell year-over-year?

Hint: Gotye’s “Somebody That I Used to Know” was the top song, Superstorm Sandy caused more than $60 billion in damage and mass shootings in Connecticut and Colorado traumatized America.

The answer is 2012 — or was, until last month, when the median sale price dropped 1 percent from February 2022 to $386,700, according to Redfin.

“Buyers are struggling because higher interest rates have increased the cost of homeownership, and sellers are struggling because they’re still adjusting to the fact that their home won’t sell for what their neighbor’s did a year ago,” Redfin agent Andrew Vallejo said in a press release.

Austin’s price plunge can be explained by a nation-leading increase in supply, as active listings in the Texas tech hub were 79 percent more numerous last month than they were a year before. Nashville (up 72 percent), Fort Worth (69 percent) and Tampa (63 percent) also had big inventory jumps.

The number of sales in February fell 44 percent in Miami from a year earlier, more than in any other metro area that Redfin analyzed. New York was second worst with a 40 percent drop, followed by San Jose and Baton Rouge at 38%, and Long Island at 37.

The smallest drops in closed sales were in Dallas (-1 percent), Richmond (-8 percent) and Fort Worth (-10 percent).

The price and sales data are a lagging indicator, as they reflect contracts largely signed in December and January.

Redfin noted that the biggest drops in prices and sales were inexpensive coastal markets and pandemic boomtowns. They were the most stable in affordable areas; Pittsburgh, Oklahoma City and Cleveland. 

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

77 Responses to Pandemic boomtowns get crushed

  1. Old realtor says:

    Good luck finding a home with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, central air and a garage in good condition in North Jersey for under $600,000. Desirable schools and a cute downtown and you are looking at an entry point of $800,000. This should get you between 1200 to 1500 GLA. Be prepared to wait a while for something acceptable to come on the market and then it will be an anxiety fueled contest for highest and best offer.

  2. grim says:

    What’s your take on multifamily?

    My sister and I were running through listings the other day and were completely shocked by the almost nonexistent inventory.

  3. Old realtor says:

    2 to 4 unit properties are selling at numbers that have no relation to rental income. Only one or two new listings each day for small multi families on NJMLS recently.

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    See the first post of the day above by Old Realtor.

    Now imagine the horrors that await potential home buyers. May I suggest looking in the Stroudsburg PA area?

  5. Old realtor says:

    I showed a house in Glen Rock priced at $650 this week. Common driveway, no central air, 1294 GLA, tiny old kitchen, small rooms overall and lots of cracked plaster. Backed up to a commercial use. I will be shocked if there aren’t multiple offers by Monday.

  6. Daveman0720 says:

    No slow down in NJ. Had clients put in an offer on a property. Seller didn’t allow scheduled showings, just had four hours of open house time. Ended up being 30 offers. We were # 4. Offered 14% over asking, 40% down, waived appraisal, and limited inspections to structural, environmental, etc. Still didn’t get it. This house did not sell to an all cash buyer but I am seeing 50% + of closings being 100% cash (low end and high end markets). Another house we lost to all cash with the buyer going way over asking. Couple were newlyweds and the parents paid all cash. Boom $$$

  7. 3b says:

    Complete madness! Hope these buyers are prepared for an ugly recession. Good

  8. Phoenix says:

    Homeless coming to the streets in NJ soon. Middle class families in tents in Ridgewood.

    Unchecked, non throttled capitalism like an engine with a stuck accelerator pedal.

    Gonna make a big bang.

  9. Phoenix says:

    Fairly Ridiculous smacks Perdue, that chicken is in shock.

    Don’t underestimate your enemy. Started out 68th seed of 68. Perdue #1.

    Now that’s how you cook a chicken.

  10. 1987 Condo says:

    Don’t think there will be tents, as we learned (and I witnessed on my block), in New Jersey you do not have to pay your mortgage or property taxes for about 10 years before you are evicted.

  11. Phoenix says:

    Read this headline and thought it was the biggest upset in a divorce case ever.

    “Man convicted of stealing house and over $110K from N.J. woman, officials say”

  12. Juice Box says:

    So Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg is going to get Trump on falsifying business records?

    That usually is used when someone attempts to cover up the theft or for it to be a felony etc to cover up a conceal an additional crime, such as committing tax fraud.

    I fail to see who was harmed here. I know Cohen and Trump are slime but so is that stripper and her lawyer who extorted him for hush money.

    I was hoping they would federally indict him for Federal election law violations and Jan 6th, which they have used to lock up like 800 people already. Not some State crime that could easily be knocked down on appeal.

    BTW Cohen has not testified to the Grand Jury. I gather he will be a witness. Grab more popcorn on Tuesday but unless Trump buses in and pays protestors there will be none when they perp walk him for the cameras.

  13. Hold my beer says:


    Don’t worry, while US citizens get foreclosed on and are crushed with student debt, the left will give our undocumented travelers $500 a night hotel rooms, free medical care, and free college tuition.

  14. Phoenix says:

    Hold my beer says:
    March 18, 2023 at 9:58 am

    “Don’t worry, while US citizens get foreclosed on and are crushed with student debt, the left will give our undocumented travelers $500 a night hotel rooms, free medical care, and free college tuition.”

    And the right will pick them up in front of the hotels, give them a jug of water, drop them off at the construction site, and threaten them that if they don’t work 14 hours framing that house they will call ICE on them and have them deported.

  15. Phoenix says:

    He is going to walk. That will make him an American Hero. We like those here.

    He will then run for President, showing how he “beat the man.”

    He will run again, doubling down on everything he proposed in the past.

    Entertainment, gossip, swindling. That’s what America runs on, not Dunkin’ coffee.

  16. Hold my beer says:


    I suspect both sides do that.

  17. crushednjmillenial says:

    Grim at 7:43 . . .

    What are you solving for in aiming at a multi-family?

    That is, are you trying to optimize cash flow, overall return, diversification? Are you aiming for something very passive or do you mind active management?

  18. Phoenix says:

    Hold my beer says:
    March 18, 2023 at 10:13 am

    “I suspect both sides do that.”

    Good cop, bad cop.

    Dems bring them over, Repubs put them to work like slaves.

    They get punted back and forth over the border as labor mules by each side depending on labor needs.

    I watched a State trooper with his state issued police car at a job site where I used to live.

    Seen enough to understand how it works. It ain’t rocket science.

    Let’s not forget our “fellow Americans” who don’t really care about their own, instead spent years outsourcing jobs and industry that should belong to our children, but instead wanted to profit themselves.

    I think about them every “labor day.”

  19. Phoenix says:

    Landlords profit from the misery of tenants. Hospitals profit off the misery of landlords when they get sick or have an accident.

    I guess it all evens out in the wash.

  20. Phoenix says:

    2 headlines from the fishwrap Washington Post. American capitalist chickens coming home to roost.

    Americans are knee-deep in medical debt. Most owe hospitals.

    Senior care is crushingly expensive. Boomers aren’t ready.
    An estimated 18 million middle-income baby boomers will not have enough to pay for care for moderate to severe needs, according to one analysis.

  21. SmallGovConservative says:

    Phoenix says:
    March 18, 2023 at 10:21 am
    “Dems bring them over, Repubs put them to work like slaves.”

    There may have been some truth to this historically, but it’s not what’s going on under Biden and the modern Dem party. It’s now the case that the Dems are bringing them over (legally and illegally) and putting them on the public dole. In other words, the Dems are simply attempting to import future Dem voters.

  22. Fast Eddie says:


    Quite a story. Not shocking at all, though. As I’ve said, drop a nuke over North Jersey, wait a week for the dust to settle and watch the lines for the open houses. The muppets will wear hazmat suits while signing offer letters.

  23. Phoenix says:

    “The United States Department of Labor’s rule requires employers to confirm that there are no U.S. citizens capable of doing the job, amongst other things, before hiring foreign workers.”

    No US citizens capable of picking a vegetable? Mopping a floor? Nailing a shingle? Operating a lawnmower? How many brain cells does it require to pick a vegetable?

    Yeah, okay. A crock of you know what, but they agree to it every day and bring in more H2B visa workers.

    So much for the bull ____ capitalist theory of supply / demand for pricing. Don’t like the price for the demand, just add to the supply at a cheaper price.

  24. Phoenix says:

    SmallGovConservative says:
    March 18, 2023 at 10:31 am
    Phoenix says:
    March 18, 2023 at 10:21 am
    “Dems bring them over, Repubs put them to work like slaves.”

    There may have been some truth to this historically, but it’s not what’s going on under Biden and the modern Dem party. It’s now the case that the Dems are bringing them over (legally and illegally) and putting them on the public dole. In other words, the Dems are simply attempting to import future Dem voters.

    It’s always about money. Follow the money. The voting thing is a byproduct.
    Its cheap labor that America wants, and all politicians, R &D, provide that to businesses that provide them with fat stacks.

  25. Bystander says:


    I saw post yesterday. I was out all day with family for St. Pats, hanging with local Bridgeport parade crowd. My Pops came up from FL bc there are it is all faux Irish celebrations. Bridgeport is as blue-collar as it gets. The parade was one-hour but enough for my 8 and 6 year old. We went to Shebeen after and my Dad commented that it is nothing like Pearl River crowd. I told him this is the most Irish crowd you will see around here – guys smoking packs of cigs, wearing blue sweatshirts and safety boots with Irish flag tattoos. Anyway if your family is from Wexford, guaranteed we are probably related somewhere down the line. My grandfather came from there and entire side of family still lives outside Wexford. My father owns his family land. Wexford is his second home after FL. It is too bad but my mother’s family is Leitrim and Cavan so we spend more time there. I loved the area though.

  26. SmallGovConservative says:

    Interesting, largely under-reported, comments from Carl Icahn and Home Deport founder Bernie Marcus this past week about the state of corporate governance in this country (in response to SVB). Icahn essentially said that in his 50+ years of investing he’s never seen corp leadership as bad as it is today — ““One of the worst countries in the world as far as corporate governance.” — with Bernie noting that many corp leaders now focus more on climate change and other such nonsense, than they do on their core responsibility, making money for shareowners.

    Not terribly shocking, but indicative of the broad decline of this countries fundamental institutions. We’ve known about the politicized FBI, weaponized intelligence gathering agencies, social justice-seeking journalists, third-world level municipal governance, the bubble-making Fed, and military leadership that’s so focused on white supremacy and accommodating trannies that it can no longer fill recruiting quotas, but now you can officially add corporate governance to the list. It’s a shame, but never been more pessimistic about the future of this country.

  27. SmallGovConservative says:

    Phoenix says:
    March 18, 2023 at 10:42 am
    “Nope. It’s always about money. Follow the money. The voting thing is a byproduct.”

    I’ll see your nope, and raise you another nope. The last guy specifically implemented the ‘public charge’ rule, which SlowJoe immediately stopped enforcing and then officially rolled back. In fact, I don’t think any administration has ever engaged in the importation of ‘public charges’ as deliberate policy, as we’re doing now (maybe Obama ???). Make no mistake, the Dems are simply attempting to import Dem voters.

  28. Libturd says:

    Stop complaining and get moving.

    This house will be had for closer to 600K in a year’s time.

    You’re really an idiot for staying here. Especially after the kids are educated.

    No state income taxes, property taxes are $3240. HOA is $73 a month and pays for
    Maintenance Grounds, Recreation Facilities, Security, Basketball Court, Dog Park, Barbecue, Playground, Park, Tennis Court(s).

  29. Libturd says:

    And my kid got accepted at UCSD and waitlisted at UCLA.

  30. leftwing says:


    “[for Cornell] to *not* make an at large bid is a five bank shot which I’m sure they’ll hit four…”

    So, like a bad sitcom which script you can recite before the actors….anyway, they lost. But we knew that…what we didn’t expect was the plethora of upsets in the conference semis…BU (5th nationally) and St Cloud (7th) needed OTs to make it to the finals while QP (2nd) and Denver (3rd) got bounced…

    Had BU and St Cloud not prevailed in OT we were out.

    Pairwise probability has us at 98% in 14th (cutoff is 15th). In fashion true to form we still need to hit that fifth cushion to make the shot…

    Three of the five conference finals tonight are bracket busters for us…for each underdog that wins the cutoff line moves up one position…one underdog win, cutoff is now 14th, exactly where we sit….two underdogs win, cutoff is now 13th and we are SOL….

    The only saving grace is that if Merrimack loses against BU they *should* drop beneath us by the thinnest of margins…we would tie on PWCs and on the RSI tiebreaker we would prevail by about 0.001 (lol). In that case they would be the one exposed for elimination.

    Merrimack is the underdog and had a hard 2OT win last night….but BU’s top defenseman was carted off the ice with a broken collarbone and they needed OT as well.

    Can’t make this shit up. We’ll know in twelve hours.

    Anyway, you really, really want BU to win tonight…

  31. leftwing says:

    congrats lib!

  32. Juice Box says:

    Congrats Lib should be an easy 5 hour drive to Vegas to visit the old man at the slot machines.

  33. BRT says:

    On the college admissions front, it’s a mess. Pretty much our entire district’s best students are not getting into any top tier schools. The reason being appears to be, so much grade fixing was done in 2020, 2021 that every single kid is walking around with a 4.5 or whatever the max is, and they are completely indistinguishable from each other.

  34. Jim says:

    And my kid got accepted at UCSD and waitlisted at UCLA.

    Congrads Lib, all his hard work and yours, and gators has paid off. Best of luck to your son. I have always thought sports shape kids future and gives them purpose. He certainly was scrappy out on the rink.

  35. leftwing says:

    BRT, I know you teach so are much more first person than I am but my observation from years ago when my eldest was applying (who is a very good student) and we got a dose of reality was even then *for the specific college seats available* there were just too many kids from the same demographic in NJ who were indistinguishable….

    I think I even ran numbers – for Caucasians – for NJ kids…Take the population size of graduating seniors, apply whatever top level percent cutoff you want, and compare that number to the number of available seats at the top Universities…

    Updated back of the envelope…NJ population 9m+, 1% per annual age group assumption, 90,000 graduating seniors. The top 1% is then 900 kids in NJ. Caucasians are 70% of the population so 630 white kids in NJ who are top of class.

    Harvard, freshman class of 2,000, 40% white (800 kids). Stanford class of 1,700, 22% white (350 kids). MIT class of 1,100, 38% white (420 kids).

    1,570 slots at three of the top schools for Caucasians of all backgrounds and locations.

    Subtract out (at a 65% factor since most of these kids are white) legacies (10%), prep schools (10%), and athletes (10%). That’s 19.5% meaning the slots available for your white, top 1% academic kid from a NJ school is 80.5% of the total.

    1,264 slots across these universities for NJ’s top 1% of white students, of which there are 630.

    Remember, the top 1% in a high end, home rule district of 300 kids per class is 3 students. That small a number. Was your kid one of three competing for valedictorian?

    These universities would literally have to fill 50% of their white acceptances from only NJ just so that the top three white kids in any NJ graduating class go to one these schools. Not happening.

    Or stated differently, making an unrealistic assumption that one of these universities would fill 17% of the available seats with white NJ kids then only the singular, top white kid in any district in NJ has any hope of going to one of these universities. The second best white kid in the graduating HS class? Let’s Go Wildcats!

    Last time I typed this was to argue that NJ, far from being the ‘best’ in high school education nationally, was actually among the worst academic decisions one could make if you had truly exceptional kid and *your endpoint was getting into an elite university*.

    NJ is very good at placing its top 10% of students in the top national State schools at full (not in-state) tuition. Or the cream of its crop at lower tier Ivies and equivalents. Or creating the best HS graduates, if having a HS graduate is your endpoint.

    Otherwise, at pretty much any level of top tier HS performance (say top 10% of class) you would be much better served being in OH, MI, TN, or any one of another dozen states NJers look down upon academically (yet send their kids to those State schools) because I can assure you that with every variable substantially the same except location that kid from the Midwest is getting that slot at MIT/Harvard/Stanford over your NJ kid. Without a doubt.

    The problem is there are just too many kids in NJ, too many who even in the top 1% in NJ HS are functionally indistinguishable, and just way too many in the aggregate for top schools to accommodate and keep any semblence of geographic diversity in their incoming freshman class.

  36. FoodForThought says:

    Highly recommend everyone read Galloway’s column this week profgallowaydotcom

    He makes a point that Thiel and Andreesen who are heavily in Crypto purposely helped rock the already rocky boat that SVB was because they saw opportunity. If banks and central bankers are covered in poop, it makes crypto look better. And of course bitcoins and other have rallied.

    Cut/Pasted below:

    This federal backstop exists, in substantial part, because J.P. Morgan didn’t see just obligation back in 1907. He saw opportunity. In the aftermath of the panic, Morgan called in the loans he’d made and went shopping for distressed assets: He acquired six banks, including the Trust Company of America, a steamship line, and the second-largest steel company in America (he already owned the largest). By 1913 officers of J.P. Morgan & Co. sat on the board of 112 public companies, representing 80% of the public market capitalization in the country.

    We learned two lessons from 1907. The first was that the banking system needs a backstop. The second was that we shouldn’t rely on billionaires to be that backstop. In 1913, Congress passed the Federal Reserve Act, which created the central bank as we know it today. (The FDIC came along in 1933.) It’s no coincidence that the generations that followed 1907 made historic investments in the collective strength of America, from Social Security to the G.I. Bill to the Interstate Highway System. They understood their obligation to be part of a broader solution and rest it on the shoulders of democracy.

    However, prosperity has a poor memory. By the 1980s, Morgan’s obligation was forgotten, and his opportunism became our model. Reagan and Thatcher branded the new (old) era: “There is no such thing as society,” said the Iron Lady. “There are individual men and women, and there are families.” Reagan added: “Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.” Libertarianism, the political philosophy of a 19-year-old who’s just discovered Ayn Rand, became the governing ethos. Regulators were no longer backstops but impediments to be defunded or ignored.

    By the 2010s, trust itself was seen as an inefficiency. Crypto rose to prominence with the core promise of “trustless transactions.” There’s no such thing.

    Last week, Santa Clara had its own Knickerbocker moment. As the name suggests, Silicon Valley Bank was the bank of choice for venture capitalists and their portfolio companies, holding funds for nearly half of U.S. venture-backed companies. On Wednesday, March 8, SVB announced it had sold securities at a loss and was trying to raise more cash. A small number of VCs panicked and encouraged their portfolio companies to pull their funds, and on Thursday they withdrew $42 billion — breaching SVB’s liquidity cushion. On Friday the FDIC seized the bank.

    Any complex event has multiple causes. The direct cause here is obvious: Too many of the banks’ customers tried to withdraw too much cash at once. The proximate causes were numerous:

    SVB committed the same sins that bring down most financial firms: mismatched durations and poor risk management. It invested long in mortgage loans and Treasury bonds, and borrowed short from startups that needed cash to fund operations.
    SVB lobbied the Trump administration (successfully) to raise the asset limit for tighter regulation.
    Interest rates rose, at a historic rate, decreasing the value of its long-term investments.
    SVB bungled its communications and strategy of trying to plug the hole in its balance sheet by selling equity, triggering the run it was trying to prevent.
    SVB’s customer base of startups is uniquely twitchy: They have cash balances well over the FDIC insurance limit of $250,000, and they’re interconnected through a handful of VC firms, which increases the risk of a bank stampede.

    By Friday morning it was over, and the feds had arrived to turn on the lights and close the bar. While they were working over the weekend to ring-fence the contagion and make SVB’s depositors whole, a new species of venture capitalist was born on Twitter: the Venture Catastrophist. The fear mongering’s stated intention was to drum up support for a federal bailout of SVB depositors — many of whom were the Catastrophists themselves.

    There are no libertarians in foxholes.
    After SVB

    In the immediate aftermath, observers are doing what they do after a complex catastrophe — cherry-picking the proximate cause that suits their politics and priors. It wasn’t rising interest rates, poor risk management, the concentration of the depositor base, or Venture Catastrophists on social media. It was all of it.

    A more interesting question: What could have prevented the collapse? What is obvious is there does not appear to be a J.P. Morgan figure in the Valley with the leadership, citizenship, and sense of sacrifice to cauterize a contagion. There was, however, a group of venture capitalists working behind the scenes, quietly with our leaders, to figure out a solution. No all caps, no posing for the algorithms — just responsible people working around the clock because they saw themselves as part of the solution. Several hundred VC firms signed a letter committing to keeping their business with SVB, intended to make the asset more attractive to an acquirer.

    More interesting than who signed the letter was who didn’t. In sum, venture capital firms that have a vested interest in destabilizing the banking system and the dollar, via crypto investments, have morphed from Americans to agents of chaos. I believe Marc Andreessen or Peter Thiel could have stopped the run with one tweet. They chose not to. This week, on the other side of the country, big banks, including the one J.P. founded, are following in his footsteps, depositing $30 billion in First Republic, after close coordination with Treasury Secretary Yellen.

  37. NJCoast says:

    There’s more than one way (and cheaper) to get an Ivy degree. Back in the early aughts my daughter who was top in her high school class was devastated when she didn’t get into Cornell. So instead she went to her second choice McGill in Montreal for 2 years. I think with the favorable exchange rate at the time tuition was around $5,000 a year. She transferred her junior year, Cornell accepted all her credits and she graduated top of her class there. Winning!

  38. leftwing says:

    Nice! Always love a good arbitrage play lol.

  39. ExEx says:

    11:07 mazel tov !

  40. BRT says:

    Yes, this is true. In my 14 years, I’ve had 1 student get into MIT. Terrible odds. In any given year, 50% of my top students get screwed on admissions as they could run circles around the student body of every ivy. That being said this year, it’s 95% of my students getting screwed on admissions. I’ve never seen anything like it.

  41. BRT says:

    They are all going to end up at Rutgers. Kids that should be going to Carnegie Melon are now told, maybe try Stevens.

  42. BRT says:

    Fairleigh Dickinson was destined to win that game. I saw it from the get go. Those kids were too fast and played too hard for these pampered Div 1 powerhouses. They simply outworked them the entire game and Purdue just relied on the fact that they have a dude who’s 7’4 out there.

  43. Libturd, up in Binghamton says:

    I have to thank ChiFi, who let me listen in on a college expert who said what matters the most is the high school resume. It needs to tell a story. And the story needs to be unique since nearly every top student across the country will have a similar list of AP courses, grades, standardized test scores and extra-curriculars.

    My kid, who wants to study psych and neurosciences, aced his psych AP exam, interned at an ABA last Summer and will repeat it again this Summer earning his RBT. Prior to that, he was a shadow counselor at Summer Day Camps for seriously autistic campers. He also volunteers every Saturday morning for a special needs ice hockey team and has done this for four years. He applied with a declared major.

    His college essay was a real tearjerker about growing up with his sick brother and succeeding because of it, not in spite of it.

    He almost feels bad as many of his friends with better grades and test scores are being rejected at the same schools where he is getting accepted.

    Nonetheless, I’m most proud that he is succeeding without us helicoptering.

  44. Jim says:

    Went to this open house today, and now I ask and wonder what will ever slow down the real estate bubble. We arrived 10 minutes early for the open house that my son and DIL were interested in buying, there was already 25 cars there and a line at the front door.

    We got in a half hour later, and by the time we left there was still constant traffic streaming to the house. Even cars from NY, the demand for this house will push price over $450,000. Totally Unreal….. this is NJ. Where does it end???

  45. leftwing says:

    “Yes, this is true. In my 14 years, I’ve had 1 student get into MIT. Terrible odds. In any given year, 50% of my top students get screwed on admissions as they could run circles around the student body of every ivy…”

    Trust me, feel your pain, lol, academically and previously financially. Although the schools may not rank our kids as highly as we want that level just below elite sure like those non-FAFSA cash pay NJ parents lol. Domestic Chinese….

    “They are all going to end up at Rutgers. Kids that should be going to Carnegie Melon are now told, maybe try Stevens.”

    CMU computer science….top of fucking class…of course everyone runs to ‘label’ universities but if you are not seeking validation to grab a couple hundred grand in some anonymous cubicle first year out from undergrad in some ad company posing as tech CMU CS is the real deal…the program is its own college in the university and takes maybe 200 kids annually…real deal.

    For my tech kid Stevens was marketed real hard by guidance…did not understand why, could not discern the reason, became so uncomfortable with a guidance department I knew well and liked had me wondering if these guys were working on commission nonetheless lol….Nothing wrong with Stevens, a lot right actually, but once the answer was ‘no’ (kid like all wants to ‘go away’ to college) need to back off…

  46. leftwing says:

    “In my 14 years, I’ve had 1 student get into MIT. Terrible odds. In any given year, 50% of my top students get screwed on admissions…”

    And also before I sign off to grab some takeout and start settling into these NCAA hockey games I’ll throw this out there, maybe shouldn’t but WTF I’ve cracked an IPA already and I’m old enough to not give a fuck any more…

    I know more than one family of kids you’ve taught…the feedback is extraordinary…so much of what one can do in life is often not acknowledged…I can’t point to any one life-changing situation nor would I post it here if I could, but you ought to know there are children – now adults – out there who are different and better specifically because you were the exact person in that exact classroom for them. FWIW.

    G’nite all now…go….awww fuck, I don’t even know which team I want to win any more anymore lol.

  47. NJGator says:

    BRT – The admissions season this year is absolutely brutal. He bright, excellent grades, multiple APs, great SATs, but not valedictorian kids in our tiny upper middle class HS are getting deferred or rejected from lots of top tier schools. Probably doesn’t help that their valedictorian applied to 25 schools…most of which he has no real interest in attending, but he’s getting in and likely taking out the other kids from our school that would have went had they gotten in.

  48. leftwing says:

    I posted here the same discussion over six years ago when reality kicked me in the balls…Gator/lib your guy nailed it for what he wants to do, as did my kids especially after we pivoted understanding the numerical backdrop…there is very little ‘new’ or ‘different’ this go around than years ago….it’s raw numbers. And last time I presented this issue as a PSA all that happened was getting shouted down that Joisey educamacation was bestest because the poll said so….

  49. BRT says:

    left that’s great to hear. A lot of times, you just see them for a year or two, and then they march off into the sunset. That reminds me, there’s a former student of mine who’s slated to defend his Phd in Chem sometime soon at RU. I have to find out when his date is to defend. I want to show up and surprise him.

  50. ExEx says:

    I’m club advisor for the Science Olympiad for the school where I’m doing a year as a leave replacement teacher. The club just won regionals. On to state!

  51. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Good stuff, BRT!! 💪🏻💪🏻🤘🏻

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Good luck, Ex!

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Welcome to the DFW suburbs where you can buy this brand new tastefully designed home for only $1.9m.

  54. Phoenix says:

    Congrats, Lib.

  55. Phoenix says:

    Just come out and say it already, you don’t care if Americans are doped up high as F, non productive citizens.

    You want one thing, the tax money. Effed up government. How about stop azz raping people financially and give them a reason to want to live without being stoned .

    The fifth huge pot bust in six weeks in Bergen County boosted the overall total in that time to nearly a ton of weed, along with a baker’s dozen arrests, most of them involving carriers from Queens.

    Conservatively, wholesale estimates value street herb anywhere from $1,500 to $2,200 a pound.

    At that rate, the amount seized by Musella’s detectives, combined with the Leonia and Mahwah hauls, could fetch anywhere from $2.6 million to $3.85 million of untaxed income if busted up and sold on the street.”

  56. Phoenix says:

    Real Estate Power Couple Flips NJ Homes In 24 Hours On New A&E Show — And In Real Life.

    Jon Steingraber and Michelle Pais aren’t flipping homes in 24 hours for the sake of entertainment alone.

    New Jersey’s real estate power couple does it every day.

    Steingraber, a real estate investor, and Pais, the founder of Signature Realty NJ, are showcasing their skills on A&E’s latest home renovation show “24 Hour Flip,” which premiered last month.

    The show gives viewers an inside look at what goes into a 24-hour home renovation at the hands of Steingraber and Pais.

  57. Juice Box says:

    Gird your loins.

    UBS offers to buy Credit Suisse for up to $1bn

    Swiss authorities expected to change country’s law to bypass UBS shareholder vote

  58. leftwing says:

    I’ve met her…lol, being known as the 24 hr flipper can’t be good for the underlying sell side real estate business?

    Congrats all on the student achievements and good luck to the them as each progresses.

    Chi, looking like Denver first round…oooffff….

  59. 3b says:

    Congrats to all the student accomplishments noted yesterday. Stay magical out there!

  60. Phoenix says:

    Jackboots mobilizing for a peaceful protest. Gonna be interesting when someone gets shot.

    America fears China not even realizing it’s becoming China:

    “NYC battens down the hatches as NYPD prepares to mobilize 700 ‘disorder control’ riot cops ahead of ex-president’s possible arrest – as supporters descend outside Trump Tower”

  61. Juice Box says:

    Should be down at Zuccotti park instead.

  62. Juice Box says:

    Someone mentioned the CFO of SVB Bank was Dan Beck of Washington Mutual Fame?

    “Before Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the Fed Spotted Big Problems

    The bank was using an incorrect model as it assessed its own risks amid rising interest rates, and spent much of 2022 under a supervisory review.

    WASHINGTON — Silicon Valley Bank’s risky practices were on the Federal Reserve’s radar for more than a year — an awareness that proved insufficient to stop the bank’s demise.

    The Fed repeatedly warned the bank that it had problems, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    In 2021, a Fed review of the growing bank found serious weaknesses in how it was handling key risks. Supervisors at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, which oversaw Silicon Valley Bank, issued six citations. Those warnings, known as “matters requiring attention” and “matters requiring immediate attention,” flagged that the firm was doing a bad job of ensuring that it would have enough easy-to-tap cash on hand in the event of trouble.

    But the bank did not fix its vulnerabilities. By July 2022, Silicon Valley Bank was in a full supervisory review — getting a more careful look — and was ultimately rated deficient for governance and controls. It was placed under a set of restrictions that prevented it from growing through acquisitions. Last autumn, staff members from the San Francisco Fed met with senior leaders at the firm to talk about their ability to gain access to enough cash in a crisis and possible exposure to losses as interest rates rose.

    It became clear to the Fed that the firm was using bad models to determine how its business would fare as the central bank raised rates: Its leaders were assuming that higher interest revenue would substantially help their financial situation as rates went up, but that was out of step with reality.

    By early 2023, Silicon Valley Bank was in what the Fed calls a “horizontal review,” an assessment meant to gauge the strength of risk management. That checkup identified additional deficiencies — but at that point, the bank’s days were numbered. In early March, it faced a run and failed within a matter of days.”

  63. Juice Box says:

    Microsoft canned the entire “ ethics and society team” because they were slowing down the development of their New AI based products.

  64. SayLehman ThreeTimes says:

    Anybody eyeing Bloomberg TV…

    They seem to be in panic…. AT1 Bonds 16-17B gone poof in the Credit Suisse failure. Who has them and how much.

    UBS Credit Default Swaps going up..up..up.

    First Republic looking like a turd on a urinal and credit rating down in the last hours… Receivership or Take Over by end of week?

    According to JPM CIO – No one knew how a AT1 would be handled. AT1 are bonds but in the pecking order they are below stocks. Now everyone knowns that “they are poof gone”.

    And how do you fix the US two tier banking system with the TBTF on one side and every else on the other? And how do you make everyone put money in the others…

    About 10 minutes for US futures to open….

  65. Juice Box says:

    Futures up, Central Banks have decided to announce that they will turn turn on those dollar spigots full blast, we need liquidity and we need liquidity 24×7.

    “The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements.

    To improve the swap lines’ effectiveness in providing U.S. dollar funding, the central banks currently offering U.S. dollar operations have agreed to increase the frequency of 7-day maturity operations from weekly to daily. These daily operations will commence on Monday, March 20, 2023, and will continue at least through the end of April.

    The network of swap lines among these central banks is a set of available standing facilities and serve as an important liquidity backstop to ease strains in global funding markets, thereby helping to mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses.”

  66. Juice Box says:

    Watch the Fed swaps. The tiny county of Switzerland’s central bank just offered upwards of 200 billion in loans to UBS/Credit Suisse.

  67. Juice Box says:

    Fab – Riddle me this what is the difference between Trump’s Lawyer paying a stripper for silence and Hillary’s lawyer paying for the Steele Dossier? Both were running for President at the time out of the State of NY, and both lied about the purpose of the money which was to hide the fact it was a campaign contribution and not attorney fees and broke federal campaign finance laws.

  68. Fabius Maximus says:

    Juice, quite simple.

    The bribe payment to the stripper to keep silent is a campaign contribution that was kept from the FEC. The payment for the GOP initiated Opposition Research is a campaign expense that was reported to the FEC.

  69. Fabius Maximus says:

    Can we have a welfare check on Eddie Ray (Nom). He was the last one in here talking about a St Kitts passport.

    A fugitive from Thailand was returned to the United States to face charges in a massive market manipulation scheme involving a New Jersey deli company whose stock was once valued at an illogical $100 million, federal authorities announced.

  70. Fabius Maximus says:

    Meanwhile in Poland.

    Poland has charged six foreign citizens with preparing acts of sabotage and spying for Russia, interior minister Mariusz Kaminski has said.

    Mr Kaminski said the six were “foreigners from across the eastern border” and they had sought to disrupt military and aid supplies to Ukraine.

    Prosecutors are currently preparing proceedings against three other people also detained in the operation.

    Mr Kaminski said the cell had been preparing “sabotage actions” in Poland.

  71. Juice Box says:

    Fab – sorry but you don”t get to rewrite history. The money was reported as “legal expenses” to the FEC. DNC and Hillary’s campaign colluded to in a coverup. Perkins Coie own lawyers are on record in court as uneasy being used to hide campaign expense payments illegally. Both DNC and Clinton negotiated only LAST YEAR, fines to settle the case with the FEC.

    Their attorney Michael Sussmann was prosecuted for it, and a was acquitted by a jury because they felt there was just was not enough evidence he lied to the FBI.

    Both Hillary and Trump broke the law. I doubt either will see any jail time. Will it derail Trump’s campaign this time? Don”t need to he has no support and won’t make it through the primaries.

  72. Fabius Maximus says:

    Juice you don’t get to rewrite it either. Sussmann was not prosecuted for it. He was tried and acquitted of lying to the FBI. Just like Cohen was tried and convicted of lying to Congress.

  73. Libturd says:

    They is all criminals!

  74. Juice Box says:

    Futures down.

    Powell might actually have to go with a rate cut in addition to the massive infusion to save us all from ourselves. How many more billions this week?

Comments are closed.