From Fortune:
Homeowners who held onto a 3% mortgage rate are becoming ‘accidental landlords’
The era of lower-than-ever mortgage rates is long gone, and it’s been replaced with rates hovering around 7%. But homeowners who locked in lower ratesbefore or during the Pandemic Housing Boom aren’t selling. In fact, some of them are becoming “accidental landlords,” simply because they don’t want to lose their low rates of the past.
That being said, the so-called lock-in effect is putting pressure on both sides of the market. There aren’t as many buyers looking for new digs and not as many sellers looking to move up or downsize, if they’ll get stuck with a mortgage rate more than twice as high as their old one.
Redfin’s chief economist Daryl Fairweather told Fortune that high rates are constricting activity. “They’re looking at their monthly payment, which is quite low if they locked in a 3% mortgage rate compared to what their monthly payment would be if they sold and bought again, which would be quite high given how high mortgage rates are,” Fairweather said. “And it just makes a lot of sense for them to hold on to that low interest rate.”
Although rates are down from their 7.37% peak, the 30-year fixed mortgage ratecame in at 6.57% on Monday. According to Goldman Sachs, 99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate.
So if you took on a $700,000 mortgage with a 7% rate, your total monthly payment would be $4,657. But with the same size loan at a 4% rate, your monthly payment would be $3,342. Let’s say it’s a 3% rate with the same size loan, your monthly payment would be $2,951. It’s the golden-handcuffs of mortgage rates, and it’s keeping homeowners with low rates from selling and turning some into landlords.
Fairweather said there’s both anecdotal evidence and data showing that homeowners are holding on tight to their low rates. For example, new listings of homes for sale fell 21.7% year-over-year for the four-week period ending March 5, making it the biggest decline in two months, according to Redfin. In the same period, the biggest declines were seen in Sacramento (at -45.6%), Oakland (-44.5%), Portland (-42.3%), San Jose (-42.1%), and Seattle (-41.2%).
Michael Zuber, author of One Rental at a Time and former tech worker turned real estate investor, told Fortune that a 30-year fixed mortgage at a rate of 3% is without question one of the best assets most homeowners will ever have.
“They shouldn’t sell, they should rent it out,” Zuber said, adding that several people on Twitter have told him they’re making around $1,000 a month after expenses from doing exactly that, sarcastically adding that the prospect of that “doesn’t suck.”
first
Due to this, I see the NJ housing market constrained for a very long time. Those “move up” homeowners won’t make that move unless rates come back down to the 4’s again. We aren’t going to see those rates for a while and will not see 3% or less in our lifetime again. If only builders can make entry level homes and developments (cape cods, etc.) but it makes zero sense to build since they wouldn’t make any money on them.
Poor stay poor, rich get richer. Ranks of the poor grow, ranks of the rich thin. In the end, the standard of living goes down for the majority of us.
Bifurcation of the US population will continue, and brazilification is a word that you should know. There will be no difference between the terms “middle class” and “working poor”. After all, you’ll feel better being called “middle class” while you get screwed.
I never thought I’d consider renting as an option if I sold. As the article illustrates, am I going to sell and downsize at an equal or higher monthly payment? If I rent for two years, who’s to say I won’t have better options/conditions then? And yes, what is considered middle class?
Middle class is whatever you want to hear that keeps you spending.
If only builders can make entry level homes and developments (cape cods, etc.) but it makes zero sense to build since they wouldn’t make any money on them.
Single family homes don’t exist any more. It’s ultra high-priced condos and townhouses on every open space possible. Preserving green space is only relevant in campaign speeches. Once the muppet masses are duped into pulling the lever for the government cheese graters, land is plowed, cardboard boxes are stacked and high 6-digit price tags are affixed on glossy pictures. The tax dollar boodle funds are infinitely more important than passage ways for wildlife and breathing space. The sounds of commercial wood chippers and chain saws are constant now.
This is certainly true – it’s never been faster or easier to run a bank, from Bloomberg:
Citi CEO Fraser Warns Mobile Money is ‘Game Changer’ for Bank Runs
back down to the 4’s again?
Humm history would have the rhyme again. Back in Dec 2008 the Fed held exactly ZERO GSE debt.
As I have explained before 1/2 equation for the Ultra Low Mortgage Rates was the Fed cornering the market in GSE Bonds via QE. They currently own about 1/2 of the GSE outstanding Debt approx. 2.7 Trillion.
Only way we repeat Bernanke’s Folly is another massive housing crash. BTW Congress authorized the Fed to buy GSE debt back in 1966, what Congress gives they can take away too.
Never again as in not in our lifetimes I say.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB
Middle class is whatever you want to hear that keeps you spending.
Prestigious, minutes away, blue ribbon, artisan, multi-use, family-friendly, within walking distance… where do I sign?
Trickle down Reaganomics destroyed middle class. The poorly educated doubled down with maga.
grim says:
March 23, 2023 at 7:04 am
Poor stay poor, rich get richer. Ranks of the poor grow, ranks of the rich thin. In the end, the standard of living goes down for the majority of us.
Bifurcation of the US population will continue, and brazilification is a word that you should know. There will be no difference between the terms “middle class” and “working poor”. After all, you’ll feel better being called “middle class” while you get screwed.
Eh, the middle class destroyed the middle class, nothing more than a plague of cannibal locusts. Feed on everything, when that’s gone, we’ll feed on ourselves.
This is the way.
Middle Class yes it is shrinking for sure even in haughty Bergen county New Jersey.
Fun with Maps and Data on Arcgis.com
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=55a38b783d7a4ceda560466d101d9f0d
Bergen County, New Jersey
When isolating our search to households that fall only within the Middle Class (~$40,000 to $149,999 annual household income), the majority of households in this county fall within the $75,000 to $99,999 income bracket.
Approximately 36,782 (11%) homes fall within this income bracket. There are a fewer number of households in this income bracket when comparing to the 2010 – 2014 ACS. There were previously an estimated 41,355 households within this income bracket (-12.4% change). This difference is considered statistically significant.
There are 348,674 households in this county, 160,250 of which fall within the income brackets that make up Middle Class.
Fast: I have seen quite a few of those massive white farm house style houses built in various Bergen Co towns. Not sure what to make of them, while a change from the Mc Mansions that look like catering halls, all that white is bland. Is the siding going to look like all those vinyl fences that are covered in green tree sap, or whatever it is. That farmhouse white style reminds me of the old resorts we used to go to in the summer growing up.
re: “This is certainly true.”
Tens of billions of withdrawals by its venture capital clients in a few days was what happened at Silicon Valley.
Not SO for Guy/Gal Mon-Friday 9-5 worker who gets paid every other week and do not have large cash positions. For a bank run to occur at Citi bank everyone would have to try and go and change their direct deposit for the paycheck.
Federal Reserve data says median balance is somewhere around $5,000 which is BTW the amount you need to keep to become a preferred customer at a big bank.
Can a bank run be engineered by an evil genius using twitter and social media on say Citi Bank? I am not so sure it’s possible for millions of people to open new accounts and wire money that quickly under the current system using SWIFT.
Perhaps in the future when FedNow Instant payment is online someone will build that death star.
Seems everyone around here is doing great! I see $70,000 pick up trucks everywhere!
(I remember when you bought a Datsun pickup because you couldn’t afford a proper car!)
$70? My neighbor got a new F-150 Raptor that I think was closer to 90.
re: $70,000 pick up trucks
Spoke to my FIL again last night about his new Jeep Grand Cherokee Hybrid. He says it’s worth $75,000….. that is way over the $52,000 on the Jeep web site to get the lease deal with the Government Hybrid Subsidy of $7,500 for a 2 year lease. It must have a gold plated steering wheel.
Lol he is leasing it. His estimate is save maybe $150 a month in gas. I think it’s less than that. BTW the electrician jacked him for $1500 to put in the NEMA plug. My FIL did not want the conduit outside the sheet rock (His three car garage is fancy) so they had to fish it from the breaker box up and over the ceiling to the other side of the three car garage. He could have just switched the parking spot closest too the breaker box, but no alas that is where he keeps the convertible corvette for summer driving only.
I have a feeling there will be no inheritance, they still have a mortgage at 75 years old, as well have to keep up with the Joneses.
VSG please explain how “doubling down on MAGA” has damaged the middle class. Or is that just what you heard on MSNBC.
Check who signed nafta, admitted China to wto, and supports open borders and then get back to us.
The last 6 years were just continuing the trend that was firmly in place for a long, long time prior. Celebrity politicians are a symptom of the problem, not the cause.
Agree fully. Politicians are a reflection of the society. I can’t think of any that have been transformative.
Trump ride the wave of discontent that already existed. Blaming him is acop out. Biden reflects decline.
3b,
Here’s an architectural gem for you:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/river-vale/129-rivervale-rd-river-vale-nj-07675–2484486436
“making around $1,000 a month after expenses”
Until you need a new roof, or new furnace or a rebuilt chimney, or your driveway repaved, or your basement floods, etc.
Oblama ushered in anarchy, chaos and resistance.
O’Biden is the pilot of decay.
“Blaming him is acop out. Biden reflects decline.”
At least you provided sufficient evidence this time.
Remember Trump begged and pleaded for NEGATIVE interest rates when the stock market was returning 15% a year.
““Every meeting I have with Donald Trump, he spends railing against Chairman Powell,” Moore told Yahoo Finance’s On the Move. Trump has frequently criticized the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell for raising interest rates last year and for failing to lower rates to zero this year. Trump even recently called members of the Federal Reserve “boneheads.””
For people hesistant on taking individual stock positions, many times it’s about simple observation and experience…
Go back a few days to some comments by Grim as a user…I wanted to get around to shorting it, was never a fan of SQ, didn’t and missed it. Down bigly pre-market…
https://hindenburgresearch.com/block/
Fast: In one word that house is just ugly.
Biden is running, and Biden will be re-elected.
3b,
There is no closet in the smallest bedroom upstairs. It’s all for the taking for a cool $1 million… on a double yellow line road. If we haven’t reached the edge of insanity, I don’t know when we will.
Remember how annoying pumps was last decade on this blog from 2013-2020….yelling and screaming to take advantage of the “free money” and buy as much real estate as you could. Free money combined with low pricing…and I was laughed and mocked on this blog for this position. I maxed out as much as I could earlier in the decade, but wife held me back second half of the decade. DNA is my hit for this decade and on….Let’s see if pumps strikes again.
“Michael Zuber, author of One Rental at a Time and former tech worker turned real estate investor, told Fortune that a 30-year fixed mortgage at a rate of 3% is without question one of the best assets most homeowners will ever have.”
Don’t become an accidental landlord do to the interest rates.
A old coworker of mine met a new woman and got re-married. After a year she no longer wanted to live in his nice condo in Panther Valley, so off they went and bought a 5 BR center hall colonial they could afford out in the hinterlands. Keep in mind their four kids were all grown and long gone from New Jersey, but hey she wanted to keep up with the Joneses, as she was a teacher in an exclusive town in NJ. The one where Cramer lives, so they figured the 40 mile each way commute was worth it for the 12,000 in taxes and the 2 acres of land.
He became the accidental landlord when he could not get what he wanted for his panther valley condo, the prices dropped due to the great recession and all, he would need to bring a five figure check to closing!! So Suzy the realtor sent over some below par renters who could not pass a credit check. But hey Suzy wanted her fee so she vouched for them.
Within a year they stopped paying the rent. Keep in mind my old coworker was the nicest person he carried two mortgages himself, was driving a beat up 15 year old Honda all for his new wife. In the lease NO PETS. He swings by to ask about the overdue rent, and is chased away by not one but three dogs barking at the front door. No reponses to letters and txt messages and calls. No rent for a whole year. Finally he calls the father in law who cosigned for the lease and threatened to sue him etc and got some money but not all of it. After a visit to a lawyer he got the eviction process going and in the middle of the night they vamoosed.
When he finally got into the condo it was wrecked, the three pooches destroyed everything the hardwood floors were missing floor boards!!! Doors were broken and taken off the hinges. It reeked of all kinds of bad smells, all carpeting was destroyed. He ended up spending a fortune to get it in selling condition, replacing the floors and painting and decontaminating the place. BTW place had a basement, seems the boyfriend was a car hobbyist. Tons of tires, rims and car parts stored in the basement. He had to get a dumpster to get rid of all of that the junk too.
As they say your first loss is your best loss, better off selling than becoming an accidental landlord.
I don’t doubt it. John fetterman was the worst candidate for a significant position I have ever seen and he was elected. We’re in a period that a large segment wants to see weak need vegetables in office. They are very malleable.
Chit will prob go lower….but you can’t lose building a long position in the companies of tomorrow during this down time in the stock market. Who cares how long it lasts if you have time on your side…you are building a stupid cheap position in the growth of the next bull cycle. Making money long-term is not rocket science. It doesn’t require major smarts. It requires patience and capital, combined with understanding of the cycles. That’s it. First investment should always be real estate…after that…stocks. You build a rock hard money producing position in real estate and take it from there.
leftwing says:
March 23, 2023 at 9:00 am
For people hesistant on taking individual stock positions, many times it’s about simple observation and experience…
Go back a few days to some comments by Grim as a user…I wanted to get around to shorting it, was never a fan of SQ, didn’t and missed it. Down bigly pre-market…
Unlike Russian toadies with their hands out….
Lib in all fairness which Trump does not really deserve Yellen started raising rates from ZIRP in 2015. Powell took over in 2018. When he took over it was already 1.42 FFR and moving up, but Powell cut them in 2019 after it peaked at 2.40 before Covid even hit.
Look these folks are not supposed to be political, why did Powell begin cut rates before Covid? Because of politics. There was no other reason.
So Nathan Anderson from Hindenburg research shorts Jack Dorsey’s payments firm Block and shares plunge.
BTW he is accusing them of Fraud. Not to say any of us did this kind of research. Some of us understand the mechanics of how they operate, but this one is a very good read.
https://hindenburgresearch.com/block/
Fetterman is still in the hospital. Is depression a cover for heart failure?
BTW the “Cash App” tweets are all over twitter many times a day reaching the top of the most tweeted list. This is before Elon took over too.
Banana,
The worst candidates were Trump, Mastriano, Dr. Oz and Kari Lake etc. Get over yourself on the failing party. Put up sane candidates and stop crying.
There is nothing innovative about sending money to someone anymore.
That ship has sailed.
That entire payments industry is nothing more than marketing machines flighting for any last scrap of transaction flow that they can slap a transaction fee on. You can probably trace this all the way back to the Western Union counter at the corner bodega.
As I mentioned previously there is probably more than enough proof to shut down Cash App and Venmo. For example Illegal gambling and drug transactions are rampant.
We will see what happens but I suspect when these sweeping changes come with the Feds new facility for instant payments these non-bank payment apps that are not sponsored by your bank like Zelle will disappear simply because they will not have access to the Feds systems.
“Until you need a new roof, or new furnace or a rebuilt chimney, or your driveway repaved, or your basement floods, etc.”
Was going to say the same thing Lib…so much of the ‘profit’ I see in rentals in NJ is really just deferred maintenance or paying yourself to DIY…
Former is obviously a problem, latter is fine so long as you know what you are getting yourself into…nothing wrong with ‘paying’ yourself to fix a water heater, remove a downed tree, basic plumbing issues, etc rather than sit on a sofa with a beer, doritos, and Sunday football. Just understand that is part of the ‘profit’, and if you need to cost those jobs out at market rates that thin margin coming from the rental disappears fast…and that’s before reserving for those infrequent but large and inevitable items like roof, driveway, etc.
Notwithstanding the condo experience above IMO that’s the way to go…if the IRR works you take most of the nasty surprises off the table…no basement water issues, no roof, no gutters, no lawn/trees, no driveway…for the most part just what’s inside your four walls.
Just ask Pumps, he took one on the chin over his rental when they stopped paying due to Covid made it easy to screw the landlords. Did you ever get the back due rent?
Ironically, Zelle appears to be the preferred tool of online fraudsters today.
You’d imagine the banking affiliation would mean a more secure platform, but that’s just not the case. It’s probably that misconception that makes it the ideal tool to use for fraud in online marketplaces.
My guess is that they are entirely unprepared for the onslaught of fraud, they lack the staff, the know how, to manage this compared to the born digital payments platforms, that were geared up to fight fraud from day 1. I’ve stood up and managed platform fraud programs for fintechs, we’re talking about literal armies of people monitoring and approving transactions. KYC, KYB, AML, Fincrime. Even a small fintech has hundreds of people doing this. These teams eclipse even the scale of credit card fraud teams at the big card issuers.
Grim,
Exactly. I look back on all interviews from last two years and half I had no interest in after first round while other were ghosts/rejections. 80% of interviews were with crypto, BNPL or faang. Nearly all my co-workers who jumped in these industries are out of work. While I despise management at my IB, at least it is stable. BNPL is a shoe waiting to fall. I still see tons operating. It has to end soon.
No, dr oz was not worse than a vegetable who lived off his families wealth his whole life and went to Ivy league and claimed to be part of the struggle.
WeChat is still king of Smartphone Apps.
Over a million features that allows it’s mostly Chinese users to do a lot of things including applying for loans, transacting with ever single small local businesses including heck tipping the garbage man, all local and state government services, , pretty much anything you can think of doing it’s there in one App. No need to switch out to another App of register for another platform.
They supposedly have a nice $7 ARPU “average revenue per user”, profitable for sure. You won’t find that on WhatsApp or anything else in the western world. The closest might be “PhonPe” app in India which is a part of Flipcart.
Guess who owns Flipcart….
Juice
Couldn’t those payment systems get access to the fed system by buying a small bank? Like a 1 branch bank in the middle of nowhere,
“Couldn’t those payment systems get access to the fed system by buying a small bank? Like a 1 branch bank in the middle of nowhere”
Unless I’m missing an obvious implied /s…..hmmmm, haven’t I heard this before with not a fairy tale ending….
Grim – The banks do not want to “gear up to fight fraud from day 1”.
Banks and credit card companies practice risk transference, what they cannot take on because it does make economic sense they won’t. Which means no they don’t want to hire staff, that would be #1. #2 they have plenty of fraud prevention, but choose not to turn it all on, like I mentioned previously say PIN numbers on all credit cards.
What the do have is lots of money to create calculated allowances for credit loss reserves and additional credit default swaps aka insurance and well the Federal government programs via Treasury like the FDIC and FHLBanks to bail them out if they massively screw up as well as the Fed Reserve if that does not work.
It’s always been heads I win tails you lose for the banks. This era of Defi/Crypto is ending regardless of any tantrum thrown by the VCs out in Silicon Valley.
And also, where does that fungus Cramer live now? He was in Summit…please don’t tell me he’s bringing his low class, crass, loud mouth to one of the two exceptionally nice and laid back areas of NJ…
“What [banks] do have is lots of money to create calculated allowances for credit loss reserves…”
Funny how loose your credit controls can be when interest charged is 28% and your cost of funds is lower single digits….
Beer – They have tried, and will continue to do so. Every single move is closely watched, they have to get past the regulators and well to do that, they need to buy more congressmen and senators. Luckily for us SBF got caught with his hands in the cookie jar, as he was the closest to buying the votes needs to get the legislation passed.
Left – He is not in Summit, his ex-wife took that one and it was sold a few years ago. He is on some estate elsewhere in NJ off RT 78 I believe lots of property something like 65 acres. Also has a spread in the Hamptons..
The same chit happened to DNA….these false short reports. Never fails. They put out all this bs that is later determined to be pure bs.
Juice Box says:
March 23, 2023 at 9:24 am
So Nathan Anderson from Hindenburg research shorts Jack Dorsey’s payments firm Block and shares plunge.
BTW he is accusing them of Fraud. Not to say any of us did this kind of research. Some of us understand the mechanics of how they operate, but this one is a very good read.
https://hindenburgresearch.com/block/
Left,
On the sweat equity of being an accidental landlord, you make a very prescient point. I am a handy person. My five years of shop in K-12 as well as my tech education classes at my undergrad prepared me well for the job. If you do not know how to swing a hammer or own channel locks that weigh less than 5 pounds, forget about turning much of a profit on your rental.
Plumbing calls for issues that were beyond my ability (mainly due to lack of owning the proper tools) easily will run you a few thousand a year on an old home. If you can’t fix a small leak, unclog a bathtub, replace the seals in a faucet or snake a toilet, expect to pay $150 to $500 for each instance based on timing.
Then there’s electrical and your tenants will overload the circuits resulting in blown sockets, broken switches and other mayhem. Think the plumber is pricy? Wait until you need to run a new wire somewhere.
Gotta clean those gutters too and do all of the landscaping maintenance.
And if you don’t resurface the driveway every three years, you’ll be repaving next.
And then there’s masonry. Oh, the skills you’ll learn and the tools you’ll collect. Be prepared to know the tool rental guys by first name at Home Depot.
Juice,
Fuck that renter….don’t even want to think about it. Lucky that I didn’t need the rental income to pay the bills. This is how people that first purchase a rental property are at the highest risk to lose. If you survive the early years and have paid down the mortgage, lessens the risk big time.
But make no doubt about it…..owning a rental is a money maker. I hit the lottery on the appreciation alone.
Pumps – DNA does not have rap songs written about it. Ask your students about Cash App, whatever they say is all you need to know about SQ stock.
I hit the lottery too pumps. Then I realized what I would have made if I simply put my downpayment into an index fund and I felt like a sucker. Even with all of that appreciation.
Over twenty years, I must have spent thousands of hours over there doing maintenance, shoveling snow, etc.
Had I put my money into SPY, I would have made more and not lifted a bloody finger.
On the bright side, I have a shitload of tools I’m going to sell when I move to Vegas/Costa Rica.
Juice – I want to kick the income distribution link you shared around a bit. I’ve some questions which I hope you can help with:
The top bracket is not 150K+ it’s clearly 125-150K. Are 150K+ households ignored for the purposes of household counts? If so, why? I’m yet to see one of these info-graphics show me the number of households making 250K+. I remember pulling IRS return data a few years ago to get at this.
I’ve always wondered if the calculation of household income includes all earners irrespective of age. i.e. all people living in dwellings from the point of moving out from parents house and getting first job to retired seniors on SS?
Conversely, I wonder if kids living with parents early career has a significant effect on figures such as these.
The map on a county level states that the majority of households fall within X income bound, but then goes on to say that only a small percentage of households by number fall into this. How can you have a majority of homes, with only 12% of homes in said bound?
Damn, CW has a real penchant for picking individual winners…today….
COIN -10.1%
SQ -7.6%
You go girl!
Boomer – Your questions can be hopefully be answered here, as I did not create the map.
https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=55a38b783d7a4ceda560466d101d9f0d
Pumps – SEC is now after COIN over it’s Coinbase Earn staking service.
If you want to keep your staked Ethereum you may want move it to your own cold wallet.
Return of capital is better than your return on capital.
Yes I know it’s probably pocket change…you only have .0001 ETH etc… or 18 cents invested.
No money lottery, just good steady work. Top of the charts talent. Kids with skills.
Sure, Banana..you mean wealthy TV con man who never lived in the area he wanted to represent. Sounds like Dumpy. He lost, he was the worse candidate and PA spoke
To be clear folks. Biden has officially said pump the brakes on Crypto.
This came out Monday from the White House, and it’s a long long read of 513 pages. Skip to Chapter 8, page 242 for Crypto.
I’ll summarize. It’s damming for Crypto, as in to hell with it.
The report also speaks of how nice it will be once FedNow is up and running.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/ERP-2023.pdf
Google “White House Council of Economic Advisers” for other opinions.
Thanks, Juice.
The American experience on a middle class income must be a [expletive] nightmare. I am still searching for dignity at multiples of the median.
Grim 9.48,
My area..don’t get me started on Zelle. It is in everyone’s sights within fraud. One of my projects
Boomer – There is hope for dignity.
I was on a call this week with some young enterprising folks out of Mass and NJ. Part time realtors they are all killing it, have a real estate license and say they are doing a sale a month etc for part time work. The rest of the time they have Facebook and Instagram shops to sell various merch. Some even have full time jobs elsewhere too.
It can be done just not on one income unless you sit in the C-Suite.
re: Zelle….Falling victim to intricate ploys designed to trick people is nothing new. People are just too gullible and fall for it again and again.
When you get phone call by people pretending to be your BANK that should be your first red flag. Hang the F up and head down to the branch.
As Bystander said they are working on it. Yes they can make it harder and safer to transfer money in many many ways.
Heck in Italy to get into a bank you have to go through a man trap door past the men from the financial police called Guardia di Finanza. Those police even parade around the city with their submachine guns to let the criminals know they mean business.
For those playing with Chat GPT.
Make sure you do not install any chrome extension for it. There is one out there stealing cookies for Facebook. They are using the stolen cookies to promote ISIS on Facebook. That will get you a visit from the men in black.
I kid you not.
Lib, put AAP on your radar…not in the habit of catching falling knives and this company is last best of a handful of majors in the sector for real reasons but it is getting pummeled on some recent news (CEO to retire, relevering). And sector is selling off a bit.
But…it’s a real company with pretty stable earnings. Today is the first day it’s inline with or better than industry share price performance, and selling in it may be cooling off…I know you have a pretty tight checklist for picks but in terms of looking for some beneath market multiple established companies….
As an aside in this type of market/situation is where options are particularly suited to your investing style where you have firm targets for buying.
If you where to say be comfortable owning this around 100 you could write June 105Ps for about 4.80…it drops to/through 105 you’ll get filled at 100.20 net (105-4.80 credit)…if it doesn’t touch 105 you’ve made nearly 5% over 86 days….If you want more room write the June 100Ps for 3.50…same math gets you filled at 96.50 on the shares (down 15% from here) or if she never breaks 100 you get 3.5% over 86 days…
Nearly half of my about 30% gains last year were from these situations, where I sought but did not take delivery of shares yet racked up 20-40% annualized gains for looking to do so.
No fetterman is the con man. He spent his entire life funded by his rich dad including a free house while claiming to be blue collar. He’s a loser and a fraud who never worked an honest day. Typical Marxist.
Nothing about side hustle culture is sustainable or glamorous. But I suspect I misunderstood the tone of your reply.
I get it, but to be fair, you rode the longest bull market in history.
Libturd says:
March 23, 2023 at 10:57 am
I hit the lottery too pumps. Then I realized what I would have made if I simply put my downpayment into an index fund and I felt like a sucker. Even with all of that appreciation.
Long-term game in a highly volatile strategy. Investing long-term in innovation is not for the faint of heart.
Coin is going to be around a long time. They might go through hiccups like they are right now, but they are easy to use when it comes to crypto. I use it, therefore others will use it as I am just an avg. By far the easiest platform to use. So when crypto becomes more and more mainstream, the masses will use coin.
leftwing says:
March 23, 2023 at 11:05 am
Damn, CW has a real penchant for picking individual winners…today….
COIN -10.1%
SQ -7.6%
You go girl!
Again, you guys love to bash cathie….but she is not the clueless idiot you guys make her out to be. She is really really smart. She knows her chit. She has decades of experience in the market. Why people think she is clueless is beyond me.
Crypto Bros tweeting like mad today too. Some even calling for an insurrection.
Here is the chief crypto clown at COIN today, yeah it’s technology man!
@Brian Armstrong
The U.S. needs to update its financial system. The code is 40 years old and the laws are 100 years old. Cryptocurrency is not a financial service. It’s a technology that can be used to update financial services. Let’s update the system.
Lefty,
Not sure you are aware of this….but this is why DNA lowered their guidance estimates much lower than that of analysts. They sandbagged it. They will have a very hard time of not beating it. CEO made a good move…short term pain that is worth it.
“$DNA they guided without figuring in milestone payments. They should easily surprise to the upside next report as long as the ones they were meant to achieve last quarter come through.
Kelly got yelled at because milestone payments are spotty and unpredictable, which investors don’t like. So he took them out of guidance entirely”
Hey, Banana – see King Orange Mook if that is your test. I know it is hard but when a candidate loses then by definition they are lesser candidate.
Trump still the master of Media manipulation, and it seems no indictment pending.
Letter from DA Alvin Bragg to Congress today, say that Trump created a false expectation that he would be arrested the next day and his lawyers repeatedly urged congress to intervene. Neither fact is a legitimate basis for congressional inquiry.
Lawd have Mercy. What a grifter. He made $1.3m and counting from his victimhood this week alone.
About 10 years ago, my club owned AAP. I’m buried right now, but when I come up for air, I’ll do some digging.
My cursory glance at the tea leaves does show it may be a bit undervalued, but I don’t see it screaming buy me just yet.
Pumpkin
Did you write cathie knows her chit or cathie knows her clit?
Did you know that many of the people who tried to talk you down from the ledge on the ARKK investment (which you later claimed you didn’t make though at the time you promised that you did and further that you would dollar-cost average into it forever) also had decades of market experience?
No One,
I made a mistake with the cycle. She didn’t. She can’t liquidate it. She is not wrong about the innovation. Stop acting like she is clueless. It’s seriously a naive take….
Is she perfect? Who is?
It’s laughable to blame her for the massive inflows that came in at the peak of the bubble and then blaming her for losing their money. That’s a joke. She is transparent with what the fund is and its strategy. I would have never went all in at the top….DCA for a reason when chit is expensive if you don’t want to time it.
You have to pick a strategy and stick to it, which is what she is doing. If you keep changing strategies with the cycles and try to time it all, you will lose. She has stuck to said strategy and will be up in time again. If the fools don’t sell next bull market top, that’s on them, not her.
I think I’m gonna buy DNA too.
When it’s under $1.
There is only one stock that Wood likes that I own. Vertex Pharma. Of course, my club average purchase price is 50% below today’s price. Can you tell me when this brilliant stock picker first purchased it? Or did she just purchase every single stock in the pharma sector?
She is not wrong that bio is an upcoming disruptive field. It’s been a long time coming…AI is going to really help push this field.
Her tesla and bitcoin calls alone cement her as a visionary. NO ONE BELIEVED IN EITHER ONE. How that work out? Just a ponzi scheme and junk company….right. How that work out? Luckily, she didn’t listen to all the noise and stuck to her conviction.
Lib, high growth companies that aren’t running a profit are not for you. Stick to the strategy that works for you and don’t deviate. If this type of strategy was for you, you would have invested in amazon 20 years ago. Nothing wrong with different strategies. That’s the beauty of investing. Multiple avenues.
“$DNA It’s a boring day for DNA, where (once again) the SHORTS carry out the delicate balance between some covering of their short positions while holding the price down as they have 150-M total shares to cover … and that will take quite some time. They just cannot afford to let the stock run. With $1.5-B paper profits on the run from $12 to $1.25 they’ve got virtually unlimited powder to play this out. Things won’t change until huge demand for the stock makes it unwise for them to try to keep a lid on it … and that won’t happen until release of good news becomes a regular event. Unfortunately, trading is currently in their hands…. see below. ”
“$DNA And keep in mind … all of this SHORT strategy involves very sophisticated pysops. Today’s flavor was letting the price run a bit (helped by their covering early) … followed by some meaningful new short sales at ever-lower ASK prices to sell through posted BIDs, thereby driving the MP down … with the overall goal of frustrating retail lightweights to give-up and move on.”
“See below” was in reference to a chart highlighting the short volume.
Walmart layoffs at E-commerce warehouses including 201 at Pedricktown, NJ facility.
North of 85% of the people I know in retail real estate brokerage have washed out……. including clot. Nobody can seem to make a living off it. The ones who made it have some odd angle (potentially shady)…… at least to get them off the ground, or else had a mentor/progenitor that handed (or subsidized) them a business.
Real estate broker part time is pure bullsh!t.
Boomer Remover says:
March 23, 2023 at 12:27 pm
Nothing about side hustle culture is sustainable or glamorous. But I suspect I misunderstood the tone of your reply.
Juice: latest idiot Charlie’s of Lincroft story. Was at a business function today in the wine room. The kitchen whiffed on the entree. Honestly, I have never actually experienced that in my life before. Stunning display of incompetence.
Interesting market day.
For those keeping track at home, we are pretty much where we were back in August of 2020.
Chi what was wrong with it? Was it not as tender as your first Albanian love? Next time don”t order the lamb…
Juice: it wasn’t served…… I left after the presentation was over…..
https://twitter.com/dogeofficialceo/status/1637804682826461188?s=20
19,000 laid off at Accenture Worldwide
For those keeping track at home, we are pretty much where we were back in August of 2020.
Nothing built… nothing back… nothing better.
No idea why I try…
“Kelly got yelled at because milestone payments are spotty and unpredictable, which investors don’t like. So he took them out of guidance entirely.”
Yes. Of course. A first year Associate at a bad firm could tell you that milestones won’t be given credit.
Which proves my point. AMATEUR. HOUR. MANAGEMENT.
The fact that he needs to learn this and adjust those revenue is not a strength, it’s a major weakness.
Moreover, whether the forecasts are attainable or not, they’ve blown their forecasts from the listing (ie, the basis of their valuation in a much more favorable market).
See THEIR OWN two presentations compared below. They themselves are now forecasting they miss 2023 revenue by 49%…for 2024, the basis for their valuation, the forecast is absolutely nuked.
Again, apologies for the quality of these two screengrabs, each presentation is available on their website if you want to look yourself.
Assuming of course you actually want to take all of five minutes to actually look at the numbers underlying the valuation, rather than spamming this blog with every clueless off point Twidiot you follow.
https://imgur.com/a/FKYWvHP
Chi – I was going for the LoL or Son of a bitch and I got neither….
Ex,
“non billable corporate roles”..not bad, basically bench people . It is only 2.5%
“$DNA And keep in mind … all of this SHORT strategy involves very sophisticated pysops.”
Oh dear Lord….stupidest thing I think I have ever seen posted about markets.
Pumpkin, if you’re going to cut and paste this garbage include the source. Need to see who this fool is and make sure anyone I know keeps their money far away from any firm or activity affiliated with this fool.
Gary, Biden got a huge infrastructure plan approved.
Keep up please!
2.5% but still 19,000 people, that’s going to leave a mark.
Have to think it’s fairly concentrated as well…NY, DC, Boston, etc…
Seems many of these companies’ cuts include heavy doses of HR…wish I could muster up some sympathy for these fucks but they made my life so miserable over so many years couldn’t happen to a better bunch….
Fucking Pioneers kill a 5 minute?
1 for last 21?
Touche you bichez…..
Shane!
Lefty,
Can we be fair here, though? They ran into a massive bear market in which rates were raised at a pace never seen before. So is it understandable that the entire bio sector (their customers) cut back big time in this environment? The science is right, they just have to survive till the low rate environment returns. With their cash on hand…that’s why I believe in them so much. Leader of the synthetic bio manufacturing sector that was born only recently. The sector is only going to grow and grow. Inevitable. Our survival as a species depends on it. You have to look at the big picture when investing in these kind of companies long-term. You have to see what most don’t see….once they see, it’s too late.
“See THEIR OWN two presentations compared below. They themselves are now forecasting they miss 2023 revenue by 49%…for 2024, the basis for their valuation, the forecast is absolutely nuked.”
You see the Bill by Biden…look how much money is being dumped into building this new sector. I know what I own…shares in the company of tomorrow.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/news-updates/2023/03/22/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-bold-goals-and-priorities-to-advance-american-biotechnology-and-biomanufacturing/
I want my ceo to be one of the top experts in this new upcoming sector. One of the best minds on the planet when it comes to this science. Talking MIT brilliant minds chasing their dreams of changing this world. They started out in their garage basically, and look where they are now. Pretty amazing. I’ll take it, even if he has to learn the corporate playbook. He’s a quick learner.
I’m not here for a short ride….I’m taking the long rollercoaster ride as this sector and economy grow into a main part of the economy replacing the old manufacturing process.
chi, don’t jinx them….jeez, i’ve never wanted the next goal so badly….
And lefty, just want to reiterate, I appreciate the professional opinion. This past posts are not saying you are wrong. This is me chasing innovation I believe in.
Yes there was a downdraft in developmental stocks. As I’ve already posited that cut valuations in half, back to historical levels. If your valuation thesis is awaiting a bubble like 2021 again, good luck. But, the bigger issue is these guys simply blew their forecasts massively and beyond any spending pullback. They are a shitshow corporate management team having disappointed the Street twice in their short lifetime, have a shitshow corporate structure, 20 months or so of cash runway before a dilution event, and they have zero sponsorship, ie no one is out there creating demand for their shares. There will no institutional demand for their shares until at least some of these issues are cleared.
And until there is real institutional demand there will be more sellers of shares than buyers…ie, there is no bid. A situation that in any market over the last 600 years creates the pricing dynamic you are seeing now…not too many shorts, but a total absence of buyers in size.
And Pumpkin, I’m checking out on this topic. You do you. This was only my career for decades. Hey, what do I know compared to a bunch of 24 year old Tweeters with $24k net worths?
And I appreciate your comment above mine as I was typing. As I’ve said before I am not trying to dissuade you from DNA or anything else, but point you to good data, solid evaluations and analyses, and manage expectations. GL, hope it’s a ten bagger for you. Seriously.
chi, we needed a goal on one of those attempts…
twelve more shifts, chi, just twelve more….
Pulling the goalie at 3:30?
…… and there will be a new Champion in 2023…… taken out by the last at-large…
Wow….looks like a shutout too!
Hahaha, have to admit, even with a minute left I was like, these guys can still disappoint lol.
On to BU! Despite their big win they’re a bit beaten up…Go RED!
Fab – Tomorrow is Friday and well the Grand Jury does not meet on Fridays.
Shall I send over a box of tissues?
Boy oh boy, US politicians are looking awfully stupid on my TikTok feed this evening.
You’d almost thing it’s some kind of Chinese government payback or something.
Except if you actually watched the whole testimony, in which case, you’d just realize it was the highlight reel.
America needs more technologist politicians.
After typing that I realize it may be an oxymoron.
Walmart layoffs at E-commerce warehouses including 201 at Pedricktown, NJ facility.
Not surprising, I don’t know that I’ve ever purchased anything from Walmart online, or that I’d even care to try.
Grim – you ain’t hungry.
No offence to the haughty folks that live on a hill in Wayne, but 100 million people shop that site in this country alone. They also own Flipchart too in India.. Much bigger.
Heck Stu swears by them..
Anyway recession? Yeah not quite yet.
BTW – it’s been about 20 years since Walmart was told by Congress NO BANKING.
I would not be surprised if it comes back.
I don’t understand why Walmart isn’t one of the biggest players in US healthcare yet.
I do.
They were threatened by congressman and senators.
And on Healthcare.
I am watching CVS.
Their plans are bold… It is going to cost them.
Video for those that dislike Elon.
NASA in it’s current form could never have done this.
https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aMEBPex_460sv.mp4
Not coming from a bad place. Coming from someone who works amongst the poorest student population in the state. When I go to places like Hershey, kalahari, and Disney….I realize I live in a bubble. It might not be short hills, (my wife does this) but Jesus, we are lucky.
For god’s sake, my dogs were saved (both Maltese from Brooklyn) from a life of hell from people that can not afford them. From grooming to healthcare, not for the poor or middle class. New pup jumped off the couch and broke her elbow. You want to talk about a day/night of fun…just glad i lived in jersy..you know how difficult it was to find a surgeon?!!
Didn’t have insurance and paid the price…almost 8k. Redbank animal hospital did a great job. Bergen hospital…spent 6hrs with dog in my arms for no reason. Don’t get me started. Incompetence is at all levels of American labor market due to this Goldilocks labor market.
uice Box says:
March 23, 2023 at 9:06 pm
Grim – you ain’t hungry.
No offence to the haughty folks that live on a hill in Wayne, but 100 million people shop that site in this country alone. They also own Flipchart too in India.. Much bigger.
@jrkelly please see the response from the short report on $SQ , slightly better than your pew pew when your short report came and the stock has been pummeled since … unless, it was deservingly so $dna
What I understand about markets from experience…this negative position by most…this is the value. Just like VNO right now. Maybe it drops more, but jesus it’s a value.
Remember, the market punishes just as harshly on the way up as the way down. Understand this…few do.
Holy Ben Bergabe Batman!
The Country Behind the $100,000,000,000,000 Bill Hits a New Stage of Dysfunction
Zimbabweans don’t trust local currency and there isn’t enough U.S. cash to make change, so vendors issue their own on scraps of paper
Everyone here is Rich..
It’s already late.
< Bye Folks..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYZz_qYw_j4
19,000 laid off at Accenture Worldwide
They will always be Android Consulting to me. They cull the bottom 5% every year regardless
Chi,
Are you referencing Charley’s in bayhead? Is this a chain? Had multiple good experiences here.
Fab – Tomorrow is Friday and well the Grand Jury does not meet on Fridays.
Shall I send over a box of tissues?
No Juice not needed as I said yesterday, anything NY does will be done under seal until arraignment. We have another week at least to wait. But it does bring forth an interesting question , who will drop the hammer on him first, NY, GA or DC?
https://twitter.com/SpiroAgnewGhost/status/1639049122950057984/photo/1
Where we are.
https://twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1638982618506235904
I dont have a subscription, can anyone else pull up the full report.
Multifamily developers mull pivot to condo projects, using public land post-421-a
https://www.crainsnewyork.com/residential-real-estate/after-421-s-end-multifamily-developers-shift-condos-using-public-land
$DNA Many of the regulars on here who have read my posts may classify me as a one-trick pony always harping on the SHORTs. While it is true that I think they control the daily trading and ultimately the recent MPs, I am a big believer in the Company, its business focus, its incredibly intelligent Founders, and the overall potential marketplace. But to the point of the SHORTs being in control … the March 15th SHORT number was just released … it is up from 146-M shares at Feb 28th to 173-M shares in about 10 trading days. It’s hard to deny that reality.