From Fox News:
Spring home buying season shows ‘steady demand’ as mortgage rates slip for second week
The spring home buying season is showing “steady demand” as mortgage rates slip for a second week in a row.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by a quarter-percentage point and signaled that it could soon pause the increases amid the worst banking crisis since 2008.
Despite the Fed’s announcement this week, Redfin says its overall housing-market outlook for this spring hasn’t wavered.
“Mortgage rates are likely to temporarily decline but not plummet, and demand is likely to swing up and down based on fluctuations in rates and availability of homes on the market,” the real estate brokerage reported.
Over the past week, in particular, demand increased as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.42% as of March 23, down from 6.6% a week prior, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. As a result, the typical U.S. homebuyer’s monthly housing payment was pulled down from its peak two weeks ago, according to Redfin.
Redfin also noted that mortgage-purchase applications are up 17% from a month ago and the number of homebuyers contacting Redfin agents for tours also rose this week.
The issue, though, is that there is still a tight supply of homes given that “sellers are typically slower to return than buyers,” according to the brokerage.
New listings during the four weeks ending March 19 fell 22% compared to a year earlier, marking “one of the biggest declines since the housing market nearly ground to a halt in the beginning of the pandemic.”
On top of that, Redfin projected that competition could increase further as we get deeper into spring as long as rates stay closer to 6% than 7%.
First
I drove through Tenafly yesterday, there was an “Open House” sign posted on the road pointing to the side street in question. It said “Cash Offers Only.”
Any questions?
First Citizens bank purchased the deposits and loans from SVB bank for a potential value of $500 Million in Stock Appreciation Rights (SARs).
That is zero cash folks. What a steal.
“As of March 10, 2023, Silicon Valley Bridge Bank, National Association, had approximately $167 billion in total assets and about $119 billion in total deposits. Today’s transaction included the purchase of about $72 billion of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank, National Association’s assets at a discount of $16.5 billion. Approximately $90 billion in securities and other assets will remain in the receivership for disposition by the FDIC. In addition, the FDIC received equity appreciation rights in First Citizens BancShares, Inc., Raleigh, North Carolina, common stock with a potential value of up to $500 million.”
Think you’re misreading it….the FDIC, ie the government, is getting the SARs….First Citizens is giving them….
Chaos in Israel over the weekend. Thousands out protesting.
Eddie, not to throw red meat into the ring but there was an article on the evolving of WFH for a large cohort of the population over the weekend…credible media, WSJ or NYT. Did a quick scan of both apps don’t see it and don’t have the time to chase it. May be worth a look.
But in addition to lack of supply that may explain the surge around here…supporting the article anecdotally I’ve noticed on a lot of those ‘remote’ push notifications I get are not 100% remote. Nearly all require you to be in the area at the very least…
Cut it however you may, unless you are truly 100% remote, if you need to be in the office even just once a week or so that’s six workdays. Tough to get to Park and 46th from Boise…even if it is just weekly.
Six workdays a month…
Not insignificant when considering where you live
Left presumably no cash if the stock does not go up. Look they gave away that bank including the real estate too I gather, and the FDIC is claiming only $20 Billion cost when they still have 90 Billion in assets that could not to be sold.
Nearly all require you to be in the area at the very least…
I don’t see why anyone would post a totally remote job if you had to be in the area. It would definitely trim the applicant pool if they knew the requirements straight away. Aside from that, it’s the first time I saw a “cash only” option on a potential house sale. And this was in Tenafly so even a piece of crap is going to carry a hefty price tag. But what does it say about the market around here? As I’ve stated, the multiple bids would continue even before the nuclear fallout settles. I received a “free estimate” invitation from a realtor to price my house. I may give the person a call out of curiosity.
JB, I haven’t looked at the deal specifically just your cut and paste, it would seem that First Citizens paid $56B for $72B of distressed assets, no?
Not sure what your point is…that a poorly run bank with a highly concentrated customer base failed in a run and was auctioned? Yeah got that…
On the actual deal I’m amazed the government got anything…and they almost didn’t. Certainly wouldn’t call it ‘a steal’ for Citizens. The sales of Signature and FRC assets already occurred, like any auction…SVB was done last and presumably had the least value.
No surprise there, ugliest dilapidated house on a bad block….
Eddie, I’m agreeing with you.
I guess my point is aside from the obvious supply constraints due to the mortgage rate differential between owners’ existing rates and current rates driving the market up here there may be more demand than one may think as well…potential employees are getting notice that they need to be in their work locales or at the very least engineer something whereby they can be there six times a month or so…
So, if you want a NYC job, you actually do need to be in NY or it’s suburbs. Even if you have ‘WFH’.
Normalizing demand, meet constricted supply.
Look I am all for fixing the problem, but this was not an auction that failed weeks ago.
SVB operated as a portfolio lender in the residential mortgage space, holding loans on its balance sheet and not selling them on the secondary market. Mostly Jumbo loans to rich folks.
Look I am all for fixing the problem, but they got a 22% discount on the good loans, like presumably Mark Zuckerberg mortgage etc. The also got free insurance from the FDIC on the commercial VC & Winery business loan book they did buy, against any potential losses on the commercial loans they purchased.
Remaining junk loans about 90 Billion stay with FDIC, the taxpayer will take those losses.
Again there is no way this is only a $20 Billion dollar hit to the FDIC.
It pays to be a Bankster, stock is up before the news too.. FCNCO 19.65 USD +1.64 (9.11%)past 5 days
3b – Netanyahu is out of control. A few weeks ago there was a story he demanded a 777 Jumbo to fly him and his family to Rome, a short flight for an expensive plane for sure.
The fact he is on trial for corruption and trying to change the law so he cannot be removed from office if convicted is the straw that broke the camels back this week it. He wants it so their legislature can only remove him if physically or mentally incapacitated. A criminal conviction does not count lol!
Juice: I never heard thought I would see Israel possibly become a quasi dictatorship.
Eddie, you pass the test. Cruise on.
When asked if they’d been on a cruise before the pandemic, 16 percent of Democrats and 20 percent of Republicans said yes.
As you might guess, your likelihood of boarding a cruise ship seems to increase alongside your age, as well as your income.
While about a third (32 percent) of 2020 Trump voters said they would be “very comfortable” going on a cruise right now, only 11 percent of Biden voters said the same.
If there is one thing I have learned in the last 6 years, it’s that everything, everything is on the table. The things you least expect, or can even think of, are a possibility.
3b says:
March 27, 2023 at 9:32 am
Juice: I never heard thought I would see Israel possibly become a quasi dictatorship.
Eddie,
Might even be the safest place in a nuclear war. You might be the guy who gets to repopulate the entire earth. If you find one on your cruise that is pre menopausal.
🤣🤣🤣
3B – re: Dictatorship….It seems to be a bigger problem in Israel as the party in power only need to change the a law in Parliament to reshape the entire country. There is no real separation of branches of government as there is no no written constitution guaranteeing it. In this case the corruption trial of a sitting Prime Minster who refuses to resign and a parliament willing to get rid of the judges.
I would be surprised if he resigns too. Seems to be a bit of a despot, and if he starts cracking down on the protestors? They say counter demonstrations are coming but calling up the army to end the general strike could do him in if the military does not back him. There are reports of defections of the police already.
Juice: I read some reservists are refusing to show up for service, and the ultra conservative religious parties are dominating the government. Does it all explode?
Hey, why let facts get in the way of a good political diatribe with a predetermined opinion…
So, First Citizens actually paid about $56B for the assets, unlike the ‘for free’ you stated. And the FDIC got the appreciation rights.
Where else do you drive off the highway?
“Look I am all for fixing the problem, but they got a 22% discount on the good loans, like presumably…”
Exactly. You have no idea what the quality of the loans were. Or which ones were included. All we do know is the market clearing price of some of the better assets of a failed business were bid at a 22% discount. Is anyone supposed to be surprised by that? In any business or liquidation scenario?
“[They] also got free insurance from the FDIC on the commercial VC & Winery business loan book they did buy, against any potential losses on the commercial loans they purchased.”
Flat out incorrect like your first statement on getting the loan book for free.
There is no, zero, nada FDIC insurance on *loans* banks make. The FDIC insurance is for the ‘protection’ of the depositors. In the FC/FDIC transaction above certain thresholds of loss on the loan book, reporting seems to be $5B, FDIC and FC will share 50% of the losses and the FDIC will capture 80% of the gains in case of recoveries, each of which is a common condition of these liquidations. It’s called an SLA. Look it up. JFC man, if you are going to pick up a pitchfork at least get the most basic of facts correct so you can aim it at the right person.
But again, why let something as minor as facts get in the way of a good political diatribe.
You might be the guy who gets to repopulate the entire earth.
Think of the possible storylines if this was a sitcom and I was tasked with repopulating the earth.
LOL!
Left – FDIC literally has insurance in the name and the monies it has is an insurance fund. It’s insurance on the commercial loans, from the FDIC pool of money, that’s an insurance nothing more.There is no other money to guarantee even 50% or otherwise.
Like I said, the auctions failed. This is a fire sale at the taxpayers expense and the lie here is, it’s only gonna cost 20 billion.
Government said they are systemic so we have to live with it. I wonder what is next.
Eddie,
I’ll get you a script for Viagra.
Learned a new housing term today.
Pittsburgh toilet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pittsburgh_toilet
Hold: I have seen a few of those over the years in older Bergen Co homes
Phoenix,
I’m ready to step up and take one for the team!!
“FDIC literally has insurance in the name and the monies it has is an insurance fund.”
You’re being ridiculous now arguing semantics…yes the ‘I’ in FDIC is insurance…care to inform us what the ‘D’ is…perhaps deposit?
So, antics aside, back to my very first reply and where I started…what is your point?
Do you desire that the FDIC instead of accepting the market clearing price for these distressed assets at auction from a company in liquidation refuse the bid and run the bank itself?
That’s really the only other action, right?
They were forced to offer a less desirable asset in the market at a time when there are few willing buyers. Want to ask 30year how that works with Bergen County tax auctions or ask Lib how that works with vehicle purchases? No difference.
There are plenty of people in this shitshow to be pissed at…SVB management for fucking up such a basic part of their business that it brought the bank down; the Board for failing in its duty of oversight of the most high level aspects of the business; the regulators for being aware of the problem for up to two years but as they are wont to do writing it up in a report saying ‘you really shouldn’t do that’ and jamming it in a file somewhere.
Or my personal favorite, which really does piss me off, the actual bailing out of $500m of demand deposits of ROKU, a company whose CFO was a divisional CFO of the single largest bank failure ever who then left half a billion dollars with SVB, uninsured, giving SVB more liquidity to continue their stupidity.
That $500m belongs to the US taxpayer, not ROKU, and would make a real nice downpayment toward minimizing that projected $20B loss…
Right now though you are just screaming political epithets and misinformation into the wind….
Left – My bigger point is what else do we not know about out banking system? There was a bit of an uproar but it has died down a bit, and now that it is all quiet the issues are resolved as in nothing to see here? Right now the mid sized banks want more coverage for their deposits above $250,000 for the next two years.
Greg Becker the former CEO of Silicon Valley bank was on the board of directors at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The same Fed that gave them all kinds of official warnings about their risk controls leading up to their collapse. The San Francisco Fed examiners issued six warnings known as “matters requiring attention” and “matters requiring immediate attention.” It’s pretty clear, given the total lack of alteration in the bank’s portfolio strategy, that SVB did nothing in response to the official warnings. The boys down a the bank were laughing and probably saying Hey Greg is on the board, no worries fellas keep issuing those loans to the VCs….
Let the Mexican cartel have at them all.
I wouldn’t lose sleep over any of it.
The legal system promotes crime in America. It’s the cost of doing business.
3b
Bizarre concept. How hard is it to frame the area and put up drywall?
I’ve also seen very small sinks in garages. You just know the guy who lives there is using that sink to do more than wash his hands.
Greg Becker knows one thing.
No one is going to do anything to him. He isn’t going to prison.
Neither is Trump.
OTOH, don’t steal a can of tuna fish if you are hungry, that will land you in jail.
Hold my beer says:
March 27, 2023 at 10:52 am
3b
Bizarre concept. How hard is it to frame the area and put up drywall?
I’ve also seen very small sinks in garages. You just know the guy who lives there is using that sink to do more than wash his hands.
Plus you never forget to put the toilet seat down, she will love you for that. Plus the fact that you are over 6 ft tall which makes it all possible.
A win win.
HMB,
We covered that toilet topic ages ago. Had one in my multi.
So JB, TY.
All agreed on the incestuousness of SVB and its economically and geographically closed ecosystem being another contributing factor. Action items can fall out of that observation.
Regarding impact on the banking system, for real time scores look at credit default swaps. They are moving all over place. Longer view, we should understand before implementing any new regs what the likely outcomes will be and if those will be desirable (eg, how important are regional and super-regional banks and should they exist). Because how we address these current issues will impact those institutions.And, remember, every bank in America bar none is vulnerable to a deposit run.
On the $250k, I personally don’t have an opinion. I do believe there is a real risk of moral hazard…one of the reasons SVB was able to get away with what it did was the availability of many large deposits deemed ‘safe’ by that closed ecosystem, until they were deemed ‘not safe’.
If we increase coverage then money will flow to whatever bunch of worse actors out there (by way of higher rates on deposits) who then can deploy it however they see fit which will likely be detrimental given that (i) we have already shown that Boards and regulators are not impediments to incredibly stupid banking decisions and more importantly (ii) they have to make dicier decisions because they need higher returns to cover those juicier rates they are offering. By increasing insurance you may very well put incentives in place that would make more likely and exacerbate future failures of this type.
But, I’m not wed to any one point of view, and certainly a discussion of deposit insurance in total is warranted. Especially when a publicly listed company with a CFO of the profile of ROKU in a blatant example of gross negligence loses $500m, and the government hands him back a check for that amount.
I’ve scene countless dumps with the Pittsburgh toilet.
Didn’t know it was coined that term. Some were on a square concrete pad, needing the elevation for flow. I guess it also doubled as a throne for those wanting to play king of the castle.
The reason they get away with it is because we did away with public hangings.
HMB, I agree. We were at an open house years ago, and there was a closet in the living room, that was converted to a toilet, just a toilet, no sink. Absolutely bizarre and disgusting!
Drunken Repub makes the papers today.
‘You can’t arrest me!’ Oklahoma State Rep. is busted for public drunkenness after refusing to leave Skinny Slims bar and telling cops they can’t detain him while legislature is in session
Rep. Dean Davis was arrested on Thursday morning for public drunkenness
Cops say he broke the law by refusing to leave a bar after it had closed
He was filmed telling them they had the ‘wrong person’ because of his job
House down the street went under contract this weekend, listing was still low 7s. Curious to see what it closes at. Another house on corner lot with double yellow line on 1 road listed for 650 and was under contract in a week.
I don’t see why anyone would post a totally remote job if you had to be in the area. It would definitely trim the applicant pool if they knew the requirements straight away.
This is very common, you often see this described as hub and spoke. These models have associates close enough to be able to commute in for specific events, training, meetings, etc, but otherwise are working from home “full time”. This model affords occasional face-to-face without the travel and expense costs. Keep in mind, this is even for very basic things like being able to come into the office for IT support, etc.
Conservative management teams love this model, because they feel that when the rest of the world comes back to reality, they can easily just pull everyone back into the office full time. They view hub and spoke as a concession they are willing to make temporarily, especially compared to hiring nationally, where those associates are not ever likely to relocate should the company request that.
Hub and spoke can be very effective in donut geos like NY metro, Chicago, etc – where potential employees likely wouldn’t consider a commute into the urban center from the sub and exurbs (expenses, time, etc).
What would it take me to commute in to NYC on a regular basis? I’d say for a $50k increase, I’d consider it.
“What would it take me to commute in to NYC on a regular basis? I’d say for a $50k increase, I’d consider it.”
Don’t know your personal income statement or balance sheet but I may question that…25k after tax before the associated expenses, less than 2k a month after all expenses?
That’s less than $100 a working day.
For three more hours of your time, daily. Less than $30/hr.
Grim
50K is exactly what I am targeting as increase to consider 3-day commute to NYC. Of course, very hard to find. 150k is old 100k, 200k is old 150k..and so on but most financial institutions still looking to pay pre-pandemic salaries. I am not jumping for 10% increase. It will be eaten away by transit costs alone.
Bystander: I could comment and give some real life examples as well to Grim and Lefts comments, but it’s been quiet, so don’t want to stir things up.
Lib, I’m so conflicted…last thing I want to do is put someone into anything they don’t want or understand but on the other hand JFC…What a day for me…I leaned hard into VNO, those exploded not just because of share movement but because volatility came in…ditto XLF and AAP…actually some oil I put on last week as well…Got out of anything that gave me 50% of max profit, all opened in the last one to four trading days.
Come to the dark side….
I really should. I’m just completely overloaded with crap right now. It’s our busy season and I don’t like to invest when I can’t closely watch.
More headwinds for commercial real estate. Doesn’t look like mandating 5 days of in person work is part of the strategy. Maybe Pumpkin can identify the best opportunity to profit off a short squeeze.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/27/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
Been working with recently married friends of my kids looking for a house in northern Bergen County up to $700,000. Must have 2 baths and 3 bedrooms. No bilevels or splits. Hasn’t been a new listing in more than a week that fits their criteria.
Don’t know your personal income statement or balance sheet but I may question that…25k after tax before the associated expenses, less than 2k a month after all expenses?
That’s less than $100 a working day.
Fair, I may need to bump my commute surcharge.
Went to multiple open houses over last few weekends in essex co… ($700 to $1.2)
All are beyond crowded. All realtors follow up with best and final by tuesday. This market is NOT slowing down at all.
Who am I kidding, I haven’t worked in an office since the mid-00s.
Fast: The house you referenced on Kinderkamack Rd, some weeks back, just closed for 910k! Hurry, Hurry people grab what you can!
Okay, bob. Go talk to 3b. Go look up his posts crying about how suburbs are dead last decade(this was a mainstream position taken by most). Now how did that work out? Now apply that to commercial real estate. It’s not going to die….and the office (centralized location for a business) is not going to die either.
VNO is stupid cheap. Bottom line. Maybe that changes, but right now, it’s stupid cheap.
Bob says:
March 27, 2023 at 12:17 pm
More headwinds for commercial real estate. Doesn’t look like mandating 5 days of in person work is part of the strategy. Maybe Pumpkin can identify the best opportunity to profit off a short squeeze.
JB, should have went to my trading group first, this was posted up there around 7:30a. Company presetation lays it out nicely.
https://s201.q4cdn.com/792406973/files/doc_presentation/2023/03/First-Citizens-BancShares-Investor-Presentation-3-27-23.pdf
Just checked zillow and there are 16 listing in our town, 6 of these are land, 1 is a farm and the other a 2br shack. 1 listed 4 days ago high 5s, definalty gone.
Yet another school shooting, this time at a Christian school in Nashville.
Well there I go!! Geez!
3b,
I can’t remember which house I posted. Do you have a link to the house?
Re:Zillow
Are they even relevant anymore? There are more than a few listings by me that are not on Zillow.
Fast: It may not have been you, perhaps Juice, no link but, I know the house. I believe it started at slightly over one million back in the late summer or Fall, then dropped to 950k, and closed at 910k. It’s busy all the time, and across from a strip mall. It will be treacherous trying to back a car out, but hey it can only go up in value!
Left thanks for the report, very nice.
“FDIC will reimburse First Citizens for 50% of losses on commercial loans in excess of $5 billion.“
So where does this money come from in any event? Again this is not deposits. Where does the FDIC get it? From Treasury? In any event if this is the way forward I expect that if there is a full on recession coming there will be other failures and FDIC action.
Deputy Chair of Fed speaks tommorrow at two congressional hearings. Should be some fireworks from both sides of the isle. Senator Warren has already sent up smoke signals and is on the war path for new regulations.
“I’ve scene countless dumps with the Pittsburgh toilet.”
Hmmm… This statement can be interpreted in multiple ways.
My wife and I are scratching our heads wondering why people are fighting each other to buy old, renovated to death, taxed up the ying yang hovels.
Is it because people don’t know any better, or because their lives are just here?
Here’s a new one. A teenage GIRL shoots up a school in TN.
Common denominator?? Assault rifle used.
1:41 the house we had from the fifties in NJ was built extremely well. Once we did the windows and roof it was like a vault in there. I loved that house.
Ex: First time a female school shooter, what does that say if anything? Worlds gone mad it seems.
Says that the assault rifle makes anyone lethal.
Yeah, and a psychopath with one is just bad news.
I went to four open houses on my Florida island, 2.6m to 3.6m, just to see what’s going on in my area. There haven’t been many open houses the last 2 years, when houses were selling on day of listing with competing offers above listing px. Now listing prices are higher and buyers fewer according to the realtors. I wouldn’t take any of these homes over mine. One home I liked the house layout and style better, but it’s too close to a golf course fairway and tee boxes.
“My wife and I are scratching our heads wondering why people are fighting each other to buy old, renovated to death, taxed up the ying yang hovels.”
It’s the American Dream!
https://www.americandream.com/
I’m seriously considering getting my CDL and driving for a living.
Anyone tried it? I like the open road.
Have you actually tried to find a house or rental in this market? The demographics overwhelmed the supply this decade like I said it would all last decade. Millennials are a massive buying block….
Boomer Remover says:
March 27, 2023 at 1:41 pm
My wife and I are scratching our heads wondering why people are fighting each other to buy old, renovated to death, taxed up the ying yang hovels.
Is it because people don’t know any better, or because their lives are just here?
CFTC suing Binance. Illegal unregistered offerings to US customers amongst other things.
More damming in the complaint says Binance is basically front running against all of their customers using 300 special inhouse accounts and their quant’ desk is using is customers transactional data like stops etc to commit the fraud.
Boomer: I would say some of both. Assuming it takes two incomes to buy these houses, what happens when one income is lost, or declines significantly, and 15k or more in taxes, plus insurance. Incredibly stressful for many of these people going forward it may be tough.
Ex: A female does not fit the profile.
A Tale of Two Housing Markets: Prices Fall in the West While the East Booms
In an unusual pattern, the 12 major housing markets west of Texas, plus Austin, saw home prices fall in January, while the opposite happened in the rest of the country
https://www.wsj.com/articles/home-prices-housing-market-trends-east-west-83c9eb56?mod=hp_lead_pos7
“Nearly all the frothiest housing markets going into last year were West of the Mississippi River. In January 2022, an analysis from Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University named Boise, Austin and Ogden, Utah, as the most overvalued housing markets in the U.S. Eight of the top 10 most overvalued markets that month were in the West, Mountain West or Texas.
This year, some of the most stretched prices can be found further east, a sign that prices in these markets may turn negative on an annual basis soon. In January, the analysis found Atlanta, Cape Coral, Fla., and Charlotte, N.C., were the most overvalued, based on how far prices have risen above their long-term pricing trends.”
Even with more price declines expected, lower-than-normal supply of homes for sale is one reason that economists and market participants say the current housing slump won’t bring the national price collapse that followed the subprime crisis.
The U.S. had a low inventory of homes for sale heading into the pandemic and the number of active listings is still well below pre-pandemic levels.
Home builders have been hampered by supply-chain issues and labor shortages. Most homeowners with mortgages have a current rate below 4%, and many don’t want to give up their current rate and pay a higher rate for a different house. Many homeowners are also sitting on large cushions of equity, which is likely to prevent a big wave of foreclosures and distressed sales.
“Home prices absolutely are going to drop” in many markets, said Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Seattle-based brokerage Windermere Real Estate. But “the only time you see a significant decline in home values is when you see significantly more supply than you do demand, and that is not going to happen.”
Joe Stanich and Cait Peltyszyn started looking to buy a house in northern New Jersey in December, but they were discouraged by the lack of inventory and the persistence of higher borrowing costs.
The couple had an offer accepted on a two-bedroom home this month, but the seller backed out to accept a higher competing bid, Mr. Stanich said.
“It is frustrating,” he said. “Any talk of the market coming back to reality, or at least cooling off, coming down, is not playing out in this area.”
Commercial Real estate now a drag on the economy
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/27/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
Exactly. That’s the problem that needs to be fixed. Retail banking needs to be boring. If you want a return on your money, you need to take risks. Small, large or no risk, everyone can decide on their own. That and a whole host of other reforms.
leftwing says:
March 27, 2023 at 11:03 am
every bank in America bar none is vulnerable to a deposit run.
A big f-you to the ignorant, disgusting R party for another school shooting. Shove the 2nd up your arse. Take away the assault toys immediately. 6 dead, 3 kids..more to follow I am sure.
It’s a good bet to buy this bottom when it comes. Might be a generational type move. The doom and gloom around commercial real estate is excessive. Just like they overvalued the chit out of tech stocks as a herd….they are now doing the exact same thing on the downside with commercial real estate. Easy money if you have the balls to make a contrarian move, which most don’t have. Aka why they never make real money….always chasing the herd instead of leading the herd. Which one are you?
ExEx says:
March 27, 2023 at 2:58 pm
Commercial Real estate now a drag on the economy
“FDIC will reimburse First Citizens for 50% of losses on commercial loans in excess of $5 billion.“
Already stated way up this thread that Feds were backstopping 50% of any losses over $5b, while also taking 80% of any recoveries. And as I mentioned it’s called an SLA, the way these liquidations are done. Nothing nefarious there, actually they are quite public about it, see below. Similar to 30year taking possession through a tax sale but being responsible to deal with occupants or IRS liens. Just the way each particular foreclosure and liquidation process works.
https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/lossshare/index.html
“So where does this money come from in any event? Again this is not deposits. Where does the FDIC get it? From Treasury?”
From you, of course. Either by way of the FDIC and the higher insurance rates the banks pass along to you, or outright through the Feds (you, the taxpayer).
And you are correct we are not talking about deposits (the liabilities of the defunct bank), which were covered in full and well in excess of what had to be…that is what is SO nefarious….every VC deposit, every winery deposit, and the ROKU $500m deposit would have reduced YOUR liability dollar-for-dollar.
Instead, the government covered all these parties who otherwise would have and agreed to suffer contractual losses.
You can’t have it both ways….have a bank with compromised assets, cover the depositors in full (the liabilities of the bank at par) and not have someone pick up the tab for that transaction…if assets are below par and depositors are paid at par, there is a gap and you lose.
3:08 Just a cog in the machine
3:06 That makes “13o” or so mass shootings so far this year….We’re #1 !
“Retail banking needs to be boring.”
Yes.
Recall that unlike your normal personal perspective a bank’s loans are its *assets* while your deposits are the bank’s *liabilities*. Logical, but a bit disorienting at times.
A solid return on assets (ROA) for a traditional lending bank is over 1%.
Sure OK everyone says…but what does that *really* mean…it means that for every one loan the bank makes that is a total writeoff (goes from 100 to zero) the bank needs to make 101 loans annually that are money good…I recall my parents always saying, in frustration, that ‘banks only lend money to people who don’t need it’. Well, yeah…when you have to be correct 101 times to cover the one time you aren’t, you sure as hell are going to be extremely conservative…
“every bank in America bar none is vulnerable to a deposit run….Exactly. That’s the problem that needs to be fixed.”
That one is impossible unless banks literally keep every dollar in the vault and give you no return. Or every deposit – that is, every LOAN to a bank – is Federally secured. What other commercial business has an explicit guarantee that the Feds will repay its lenders if they can’t?
The banking system is exactly as described in “It’s a Wonderful Life”. Bobby’s deposits don’t sit in the vault they fund Suzie’s loan to expand her business.
Key are the people at the intersection of that transaction…why do you think bankers are always (or always should be) among the most dry and boring people in the world?
There’s no room for cliff jumpers in squirrel suits in a traditional commercial bank’s executive management. Yet that is what caused the collapses of these institutions.
That one is impossible unless banks literally keep every dollar in the vault and give you no return.
Right. I know it’s completely different than the current system, but would it be so wrong? If someone wants a return, they should take some level of risk.
PS. Not that it matters, but the cash does not need to physically be in the vault as most withdrawals are electronic from one institution to another.
The banking system is exactly as described in “It’s a Wonderful Life”. Bobby’s deposits don’t sit in the vault they fund Suzie’s loan to expand her business.
Forgot to respond top this. Maybe the S&L institutions operated that way? Not sure but banks do not lend out deposits. On one hand, it can be considered a distinction without a difference, but on the other (more importantly, in my opinion) is an significant difference.
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/programs/senior.fellows/2019-20%20fellows/BanksCannotLendOutReservesAug2013_%20(002).pdf
Forgive the rough title to this article
https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2019/09/17/if-you-dont-understand-banks-dont-write-about-them/?sh=7975f30b2e69
School Shooter is being misgendered in the media.
Audrey Hale 28 He/Him on social media
Bystander 31% democrat households have guns. For Republicans it is around 66%
Make sure you remember that when you complain about gun nuts, and no I am not including illegal firearms.
And yes most shooters have mental issues.He/Him Audrey Hale has not attended that school in at least 15 years.
Good links joyce, did a brief look at them…
I think we might be saying the same thing, and I think the articles support the initial comment? That moneys taken in on deposit are lent out or otherwise invested and not ‘in the vault’ (physical or electronic)?
The first Harvard paper may confuse with a double negative…banks have deposits from consumers (liabilities) but keep deposits at the Fed (assets) for marginal liquidity in the event of consumers seeking withdrawals…I think when the author says the banks don’t lend deposits he’s talking about the reserve deposits?
Anyway, more practically, banks have to lend out their consumer deposits (the loans they take) or we are back to the original point…there’s an issue because they are paying X.X% to get the deposits in and if they are not lending them they have a negative spread, so why take something you pay for and let it sit there unproductively costing you money?
Anyway this brings us back to your point which I am also in agreement with…
“I know it’s completely different than the current system, but would it be so wrong? If someone wants a return, they should take some level of risk.”
Agree on the risk, and is it so different from the current system? Doesn’t the above ‘some level of risk’ describe MMFs? A problem currently is struggling banks can bring in funds by granting excess yield to consumers (higher rates for the higher risk) *but* that normal risk/reward curve gets hard flattened because due to FDIC insurance for amounts under $250k you could be lending (putting deposits with) a triple-A rated organization or with Bernie Madoff and it doesn’t matter, your downside payout is the same, risk is stripped from the system.
I’m all for a hard tiered risk system based on yield if that is what you are saying…demand (checking) accounts get no interest but 100% protection, something that yields and invests like a MMF gets some level of protection but not full, and those stretching for yield get no protection…
I can assure one thing…we would not be bailing out ROKU from its $500m lost deposit at SVB if the above were the case…no way in hell even that total incompetent CFO would have kept $500m in a non-interest bearing account….
Juice,
Why do I care Juice? D gun owners are probably ok with some legislation. The Rs will continue to block any small item that would lead to less deaths including registration and ban of assault rifles. You register to vote, you can register a gun. It is not infringing on rights. F-the gun nuts.
“The Rs will continue to block any small item…”
ByS, yes, and both sides understand and act this way because both the Left and the Right understand that once government starts regulating it doesn’t stop.
Rs do it with what may otherwise be reasonable requirements around firearms because otherwise they wake up one day and poof it’s gone.
Ds do it around what may otherwise be reasonable requirements around abortion because otherwise they wake up one day and poof it’s gone.
A good number of those Rs would support some firearms regs in the same way a good number of Ds would not support unfettered late term abortion on demand.
Problem is give an inch and the other side tries to take a yard. For both parties in their respective interests. So they stick to their extremes.
5:30 oh snap!!
My Honda had a bad trans. Not sure how it identified but it wouldn’t identify going past second gear.
Lol, got an email from my mortgage company about a refinance promotion they were running.
leftwing,
Here is another way to describe what I was trying to say in terms of how loans are made, what is used to make them, etc. Link has other links in it, if you’re curious:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2019/09/17/if-you-dont-understand-banks-dont-write-about-them/?sh=6ffeb35a2e69
Banks, on the other hand, can lend out money without first taking a deposit, because states give them the right to issue loans in the national currency, subject to certain rules. BigBank Inc could lend £90 to a consumer, without actually having £90 in deposits. The amount that banks are able to lend is determined by central bank regulation. The central bank might say that commercial banks must hold a certain amount of highly liquid capital (cash, shareholders’ equity, or anything relatively easy to sell) relative to its loans. Once it has lent the £90 out, it might have to find £9 worth of capital to keep within state regulation. But the remaining £81 is new money — the bank has not borrowed it from anyone else, it has simply created it out of thin air.
Bystander, re: “D gun owners are probably ok with some legislation.”
You think they won’t complain if we confiscate their firearms?
it has simply created it out of thin air.
And will have taxpayers pay for it out of pulmonary expiration with their hard work.
And no one is prosecuted.
BTW thanks LW and others for your comments the other day. But my daughter needed to learn a lesson. How someone can legally withhold something that belongs to her and the lack of the desire and ability of law enforcement to make her whole.
She has watched her own mother steal from her and the police do absolutely nothing in order to give her what is her own property. She experienced how worthless they are.
It was a good lesson. Things like that stick. She has a voice and gets to use it. Maybe this experience will be added to her college essay on why she wants to become a lawyer.
Better yet, a judge.
You eejits give up your firearms this country is toast.
Honestly, it probably is anyway. But at least you can eat Bambi for a last meal.
Ex: you heard this one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hig8cPsPlRc
Part of a message I sent to some of my clients…….. relative to Doug Diamond.
On October 10, 2022, Professor Doug Diamond of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business was awarded the 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics for his research on bank runs. As most of you know, I graduated with an MBA from Chicago Booth in 1997. I also happened to be a student in Professor Diamond’s Financial Market Institutions class in the Spring of 1997.
When he traveled to Europe this past December to collect his prize, Chicago Booth released news articles and media to celebrate his achievement. At the time, I shared the following comments on my own Linked-In page as well as shared Chicago Booth’s release. I had no idea that ONLY 3 MONTHS LATER we would be watching an example of the type of events he profiled.
To be clear, the way you have seen experts and government officials diagnose the banking industry over the last few weeks is sourced in the Diamond-Dybvig model. The academics created the framework that you are seeing being used in March 2023. It seems rather matter of fact in today’s media, but it is not.
My Linked-In Post on December 9, 2022:
I was his student in the Spring of 1997. He is as self-effacing and accessible as he appears in this video. Having a basic understanding of his research in the fall of 2008 was both critical and incredibly fortunate for my career.
Chicago Booth Linked-In Post on December 7, 2022:
Through his groundbreaking research, University of Chicago economist Douglas W. Diamond has helped to define modern banking theory—profoundly impacting the way we think about banks and financial crises. This October, he was honored with a share of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel—the 97th person affiliated with UChicago to win a Nobel Prize.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1HDcj2e8NM
Agree on the risk, and is it so different from the current system? Doesn’t the above ‘some level of risk’ describe MMFs?
…
I’m all for a hard tiered risk system based on yield if that is what you are saying…demand (checking) accounts get no interest but 100% protection, something that yields and invests like a MMF gets some level of protection but not full, and those stretching for yield get no protection…
Exactly. When I say retail banking needs to be boring, I mean 110% boring. I think I would be okay with full protection of all deposits sitting in a regular checking/savings account. CD’s, MMF and the like … should they get any protection? No other investment gets any protection, unless you’re a TBTF and/or politically connected “systemic risk” institution.
I can assure one thing…we would not be bailing out ROKU from its $500m lost deposit at SVB if the above were the case…no way in hell even that total incompetent CFO would have kept $500m in a non-interest bearing account….
It’s shit like this that makes me wonder how much worse could it possibly be if the Treasury & Post Office did retail banking, fully insured, with all the inefficiencies that come along with it? It might be cheaper than all the bailouts. The pretend capitalists/libertarian politicians and business people that advocate for capitalism, free markets AND bailouts disgust me.
Explaining to Linkedin how I balanced 9 fully remote jobs for a year in 2021.
https://twitter.com/jack_raines/status/1640456200645910532?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
And you wonder why WFH is an abomination….just look at the bs it creates for companies. Have to be an idiot to base your company on remote wfh workers…you are attracting the least productive, corner cutting, and biggest scammers in the entire labor force. Good luck with that.
Picture labeling schools as “learn from home.” What kind of students do you think you are going to attract? Best and brightest?!!! Lmao. The kids that want to do the least amount of work…to the point that they can’t even show up. Every corner cutting student out there will be running to remote schooling.
Office demise? Right. Every major company has already abandoned WFH. They know about the damage already..they just hope their competition doesn’t realize it yet….they will.
Corporate executives, retired Santa Clara cop, a veteran security officers, and a trio of twenty something hotties went on one hell of an adventure to torture people.
On October 8, Former eBay Senior Manager of Global Intelligence Stephanie Popp, 32, and Veronica Zea, 26, a former contractor, pleaded guilty to the same charges.
Popp and Zea along with several other employees at eBay were allegedly involved in “an aggressive cyberstalking campaign” against a Natick couple in 2019 who published negative reviews about the company in an online newsletter.
The carefully orchestrated harassment campaign, Lelling alleged, included sending anonymous, threatening messages, ordering unwanted and disturbing deliveries to their home, including funeral wreaths, books on surviving the loss of a spouse, live cockroaches, fly larvae, and live spiders.
The executives also allegedly arranged to have “Barely Legal” porn mailed to their neighbor’s address under their name.
Who skated- the top two, one of which resigned with millions as a “penalty.”
One can only hope for a massive civil suit to sink them all like the Bismark.
https://casetext.com/case/united-states-v-baugh-22
They keep coming. Some animals are more equal than others.
This one is a real sweetheart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6L9NEg5eFf8&t=32s
Kayla Menard Reaux, Youngsville City Councilwoman Division A, is a lifelong resident of the city of Youngsville.
Youngsville officers arrived quickly to the scene of the crash, and Guidry told an officer that the woman in the vehicle refused to get out or speak with her. The woman also did not cooperate with officers.
Moments later, Youngsville Police Chief Rickey Boudreaux arrived at the scene. He introduced the driver to his officers as Youngsville Councilmember Kayla Menard Reaux.
Reaux, the daughter of longtime Youngsville Police Chief Earl Menard, said she called the current police chief after the crash because she had just left his house.
It isn’t clear why Reaux was at Boudreaux’s house or how long she was there. Boudreaux said the councilwoman dropped by to pick up something but declined to disclose specifically what she picked up. He said she did not drink or use drugs at his home.
https://www.theadvocate.com/acadiana/news/youngsville-councilwoman-calls-police-chief-at-crash-scene-leaves-without-citation-or-sobriety-test/article_a73de940-c36b-11ed-84f1-1f39ad542395.html
Right and left agree, guns should be kept away from the mentally ill. That’s coming sense.
You can see where the woke movement is going. Totally incompatible with civilization. This rot needs to end.
Say what you will about Cathie, she was earlier than most investment firms to relocate to FL.
Tale of Two Housing Markets: Prices Fall in the West While East Booms https://www.wsj.com/articles/home-prices-housing-market-trends-east-west-83c9eb56
What people don’t realize is that deposit insurance and bank regulation creates risky behavior in banks and apathy from depositors. Historical free banking systems worked on incentives. The US banking system has pretty much never been “free market”.
” The pretend capitalists/libertarian politicians and business people that advocate for capitalism, free markets AND bailouts disgust me.”
My career was investment banking and I am thoroughly disgusted.
CNBC has another ‘venture capital’ guest on this morning making the case of how rescuing all the corporate depositors was the ‘right thing’ because of the adverse consequences to these companies if they didn’t. Some may not have been able to make payroll! /s
Excuse me?
Literally the reason venture capitalists exist is to take the risk on raw ideas, individuals, and companies and mature them into corporate entities. And in return they reap the ensuing rewards.
Your companies lost deposits because one of the most basic regulations of commercial banking for nearly a century – posted all over every branch in America in 40 point letters – was not observed by your portfolio companies. This is YOUR failure. The venture capitalists.
And what do they receive for this massive failure? 2 and 20 on a targeted 30….Say what?
Annually, 2% of assets under management…for that $1B fund that’s $20 million dollars annually for the 50 or so employees in the firm.
Plus 20% of all gains – for no money paid in – on the 30% target returns. On a typical ten year life fund that $1B turns into more than $8B. That’s a $2B+ kicker in year ten to the VC firm.
So, these small firms of a few dozen employees are taking $20 million annually in compensation and a $2B kicker in ten years. To fail their companies on an issue so basic that is understood and followed by even Sun Belt retirees
Here’s a novel idea…your portfolio company short on payroll? Considering the entire reason you exist is to steer and advise them, considering the extraordinary compensation you take, and considering both the advice and ensuing compensation is based on the inherent risk of these companies you fund…drumroll…reach into YOUR own fucking pockets and cover payroll.
And, slightly off-topic but icing on the cake…that 20% kicker is referred to as ‘carried interest’. Google it. When those $2B in gains are realized by the handful of partners at the VC firm the US tax code allows them to recognize it as long term capital gains (20% tax rate) versus regular income (37% tax rate). Every Congress has tried to change this, and when the Dems had both houses and the Oval Office in the last Congress it was in a bill and ready to go through and…poof. Because a $1.25B net bonus isn’t enough, it needs to be a $1.6B bonus.
I should not be covering your companies’ losses. Reach into those deep pockets and cover your own companies’ losses…it is literally YOUR JOB.
We are long past the time when W2 inland workers should be picking up pitchforks.
Still no interest in playing stocks until we get motion one way or the other. I’m sick of the chop. It’s actually pretty boring. I’m still content to sit on Yen instead of dollars watching the dollar mean revert.
Did short COIN yesterday BRT. May lean into that harder today. The whole industry is in the regulators sights, these guys have an outsized commission that will dissipate if the pressure abates, and CW is in. Plus, it is HTB so shorts are running it, at 60, a lot room to fall.
SBF now getting new indictment for bribing a Chinese official with $40m.
U.S. home prices logged a seventh-straight monthly decline in January as rising interest rates continue to pressure home prices and the housing market overall.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price index fell 0.5% in January compared to the previous month, according to data released on Tuesday. On a yearly basis, the index climbed 3.8% in January, down from 5.6% in the previous month.
The report’s 20-City Composite index, which tracks prices in the 20 largest metros, showed prices fell 0.6% over the prior month in January and rose just 2.5% over last year. All 20 cities reported lower prices in the year ending January 2023 versus the year ending December 2022, the report said.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-drop-for-seventh-straight-month-to-start-2023-130026707.html
Iger axed the metaverse division.
Sorry Zuck.
TD always rejects my attempted BTC related shorts, MSTR, COIN, RIOT. Ironically, I am allowed to leverage 10 to 1 on OTM puts in those same crappy stocks.
8:36 Florida has almost zero appeal at this point.
Anyone actually like wearing VR goggles? I bought goggles for Sony PS4 and lately PS5, but both ended up making me feel nauseous. At best a novelty. No way could I handle wearing it for many hours per day. Uncomfortable with glasses. Sealed face gets sweaty.
Wonder if for the PC they’ve created VR Doggy Style apps. Sony won’t go for that.
Did mine through options BRT…I’m a pessimist not a masochist….use spreads to reduce the cost (high vol intrinsic carry) and better use ratios, write 2x what you purchase. Can get a very attractive entry although with the ratios, depending on strikes, be aware you are locking in not only direction but also timing as the net deltas come close to canceling out. That can also be positive, as strong upward moves don’t nick you that badly.
I understand the broker’s views…long puts (strongly not recommended) or even the ratios are fixed losses…straight short you can get seriously reamed and theoretical unlimited upside loss…
I really can’t do options. They move too quickly for me to get in and out when I’m occupied. I’ve had way more success shorting and putting in stop losses when I’m away.
Why you want to work from home:
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/123vbtm/tire_freakout/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Spreads say something is happening with DEUTSCHE BANK.
You are being offered 796 for A1/A- to Nov 23
Bear in mind Friday……. end of week, end of month, end of quarter….
Accidents….. must use VF in dedicated room or risk bodily injury / property damage
No One says:
March 28, 2023 at 11:36 am
Anyone actually like wearing VR goggles? I bought goggles for Sony PS4 and lately PS5, but both ended up making me feel nauseous. At best a novelty. No way could I handle wearing it for many hours per day. Uncomfortable with glasses. Sealed face gets sweaty.
Wonder if for the PC they’ve created VR Doggy Style apps. Sony won’t go for that.
11::05
I ran around Jupiter area a few weeks ago to play golf. The whole place seems like a facade. Just five miles in from the coast it turns into Florida swamp. Crazy expensive., seems to be expanding north up the coast as well.
Courses were nice. Medalist is fantastic.
Client sold house, moved into rental. One month later bought a piece of land in another town. Broker who sold house had exclusive, but small print said it was based on time not transaction. So broker is attempting to collect commission of purchase of land even though it was done without any input. Client seeking lawyer. Thoughts?
Not a recommendation BRT but spreads help with that….pick your date, everyone seems to be expecting a nearer term decline, if you even just go out to May 19 (53 days) you can find liquid options…
Establish 60/40 put debit spreads. Long the 60, write the 40. You get in for a debit of 6.85 ($685 per contract). Your max profit is $1,315 per contract.
That’s your max loss, you’ll never let it get there, cut your losses at 50%.
The net delta is 0.24, the amount the contract moves for every dollar move of of the underlying. That means for a $10 move up in the underlying (up 28%, even overnight) you would generate a loss of $240, well within your 50% loss parameter.
In other words, with such a low delta, you don’t need to monitor intra-day.
Typo, up $10 is up 18% not 28% obviously, Fat fingers.
They released video of the police response. Literally, the opposite of Uvalde.
“You are being offered 796 for A1/A- to Nov 23”
Not near a Bloomberg, can you pull up credit default swaps?
On your client, he gave the broker who sold his house an exclusive to represent him on a future buy? WTF in the world would he do that? I mean I understand the inverse because buy side representation sucks so maybe for a broker who really helps you on the buy you flip them the sale commission since you’ll be using someone anyway. But lock in a buy commission after you’ve already given away the sell side?
Am I understanding that correctly?
Nashville cops acted and acted fast!!!
Between 2019 and 2020, the number of New Yorkers earning between $150,000 and $750,000 fell by nearly 6%, according to the New York City Independent Budget Office.
Moreover, the number of real high earners — those making over $750,000 — dropped by nearly 10% during the same period.
Some speculate that the wealthy elites are leaving New York because of the state’s high tax rates. While it’s hard to say exactly why people move, the loss of high earners can impact the city’s income tax revenue.
For perspective, the 41,000 filers in the city’s top 1% pay more than 40% of all its income taxes. The 450,000 filers in the top 10% pay about two-thirds of all income taxes.
In other words, the remaining 90% of taxpayers contribute about one-third of the city’s income tax revenue.
In its most recent report, financial technology company SmartAsset found that in 2020, New York had a net outflow of almost 20,000 high-earning households — defined as households earning over $200,000. That was more than any state in the study.
So where are these folks moving? Florida.
No state attracted more high-earning households than the Sunshine State.
According to SmartAsset, Florida added 32,019 tax filers who reported at least $200,000 in income in 2020. While the state also lost 11,756 such filers during the year, the end result was a net gain of 20,263 high-income filers.
Texas is another warm state that doesn’t have a state income tax. So it’s no surprise that high-income households are flocking to it.
In 2020, 18,417 tax filers who made at least $200,000 moved to Texas, while 13,061 high-earning filers left it. Simple math shows a net gain of 5,356 high-income households for the Lone Star State.
Other than the absence of a state income tax, Texas also attracts newcomers with its reasonable cost of living. The typical home value in Texas is $315,451 according to real estate marketplace Zillow, which is lower than the national average of $357,319. New York City, on the other hand, has a typical home value of $782,365.
At the same time, Texas boasts a booming economy and plenty of job opportunities. According to the Texas Workforce Commission, the state led the nation for the fastest annual jobs growth rate at 5.4% from October 2021 to October 2022.
Taxes by State:
https://imgur.com/gallery/ygMVlE8
All they do is hurt the country with this game of musical chairs. It’s idocracy at its finest. They don’t escape the bill, their kids will pay for it. They don’t save any money as they piss it away on an overpriced house in Florida or Texas. Imagine being wealthy, and fleeing a nice place to live to go live in the swamps of Florida or some chit hole in Texas. Talk about slaves to money…drunk off greed that they make these idiotic choices….all to save money that they don’t even need. Then they tap themselves on the shoulders telling themselves that they are the smartest individuals in the room because they made moves to save on income tax. Yea, buddy….you are a genius.
“So where are these folks moving? Florida.
No state attracted more high-earning households than the Sunshine State.
According to SmartAsset, Florida added 32,019 tax filers who reported at least $200,000 in income in 2020. While the state also lost 11,756 such filers during the year, the end result was a net gain of 20,263 high-income filers.
Texas is another warm state that doesn’t have a state income tax. So it’s no surprise that high-income households are flocking to it.”
Maybe I need to explain this some more….they compete in said new location, driving up pricing on what is supposed to be cheap housing location. Talk about dumbasses….you are paying millions for this chit. Are you insane? The wealthy can be lemmings too…running off the cliff.
“They don’t save any money as they piss it away on an overpriced house in Florida or Texas.”
Chi,
Your client should calculate whether to lawyer up and fight or settle.
No one reads those “standardize” contract because they trust the RE salesperson and because RE is so much BS – the lingo can overwhelm people. Issue is definition of exclusive – Exclusive agent for written time just for the property contract was signed? Or did he signed a timed exclusive all transactions RE agent contract that mention the house sold as the subject of the contract, but somewhere in there there is the tricky language in one sentence that makes it a TRAP.
Whoops they should have ended their exclusive agreement before buying another property from presumably another agent. They also should have informed the other agent too because procuring cause disputes can get escalated to the Realtor Board, since it’s usually the seller that pays etc and they realtors split it.
I did not sign an exclusive buyer agreement, one of the agents that showed me homes around here called me after my deal closed and was miffed. I told her you did not show me this house and we had no agreement because I refused to sign one…That was the last I heard of it.
The realtor will have to lawyer up too I assume. Perhaps a nice letter from any lawyer might just end it before it gets to be two lawyers trying to out bill each other. How much was the commission anyway?
“$DNA Take a look at today’s action. Once again, so obviously a short sale in the range of 800K share for the purpose of driving the MP down to a new low. True shorters looking to make money (by selling high and buying low) would not effect a sale of that magnitude all at once on an otherwise slow trading day. It’s possible there were also some 10b5 plan sales today … we’ll see tonight. But this action is clearly the shorts flexing their muscles. They’ve got enough paper profits to take this to 90-cents … if they want. The problem for them is the hole keeps getting deeper. For investors in for the long haul … this action is irrelevant.”
Saudi backed Lucid Motors 1,296 layoffs, approx. 18% of workforce. They sold less than 5,000 cars last year. Tesla makes that in less than a week.
Where is Cathie moving to in FL? Certainly not in the swamps like your family might have, Punkin. Instead she’d be living the high life, somewhere like this, or nicer, where she can walk to her office.
https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/310-l-111156-t3432783/180-beach-drive-2301-st-petersburg-fl-33701
“They’ve got enough paper profits to take this to 90-cents … if they want.”
Pumps. Please ask the author of the tweet (that’s gotta be where you got this) to explain this line because it makes absolutely no sense.
It would be akin to saying, the real estate values in NJ are maintaining their levels due to Jupiter’s alignment with Mars.
Why do you pay attention to pumpers and dumpers who are trying to manipulate you and continue to ignore people who are trying to help you?
Don’t respond until either you, or that “moron influencer” explains themself.
Hughesrep,
That course looks great, how did you play? I play to an 11 index now, but about 5 years back when I was maybe a 24 handicap, I got to play PGA National at Palm Beach Gardens, home of those finishing holes called “The Bear Trap” with a lot of water. It takes a certain level of skill to enjoy those famous courses. I didn’t have it then, not sure if I would have it now.
There’s a certain kind of investor who blames stuff on short sellers. I’m not surprised that Punkin is that kind. But when his pet stock goes up, it will be his brilliance, not short covering, that he thinks of.
Punkin is like the village idiot who never learned to be embarrassed about whacking off in the public square. He’s proud to show everyone his “special purpose”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJJA6WRpvlg
For the record, I completely suck at golf, though I can hit the ball a country mile. The problem is, the hook or slice is 9/10ths of that mile and the ball ends up about 50 yards from where I teed off.
Golf is a decent way to spend an afternoon.
I just looked at every chart of DNA from max to 5 years, to 1 to to 6 months to YTD to 1 month to five days to day to 1 hour.
They all start significantly higher from where they finish. Must be all that short selling.
NoOne
I played OK. I’m a 10. Shot an 84 from the members tees. Was -1 through 5 then got on the bogey / double train for a bit.
Tee to green it’s very playable. No rough, fairways are fairly wide, then waste sand for about 10 feet, then lost ball.
The greens are like lightning though. They keep them around 13 for the tour guys who are members. Just ridiculous. Down hill three footers become 8 foot uphill putts if you miss, they just keep rolling.
Saw DJ, Koepka, Matt Wolf walk in when I was eating lunch. No Paulina, should have checked the pool. PGA guys were at TPC that week.
Chi,
From my Barstool Practice, tell the Realtor to pound sand.
Unless that contract was so badly written, they have no claim. The standard contract is for one sale or purchase only, unless there are stated contingencies. Representation on a purchase only kicks in when you sign the offer sheet on the buy. Consideration also comes into play. If I look at a place with 30yr 3 times and do a 4th viewing with Grim. If I make the decision to buy on the 4th visit, Grim gets the commission.
The only way they could possibly have a claim is if the sale of the house was dependent on the land purchase. If it was the case, then the fact your client moved to a rental and the sale closed is considered a novation. The close was under a new contract.
On the sale of the land itself. If it was in another state where the realtor is not licensed could the realtor even represent. If the realtor had no part of the purchase there is no consideration to even look at.
Tell the Realtor if he wants to pursue this, take it up with the other realtor and work it out amongst themselves with the Realtor Board. If they come back to you, you will take it to the Realtor board and the State as a formal complaint. See if they want to roll the dice with their License on the table.
I am not a lawyer or Realtor, but Norm sitting on a barstool sipping suds.
All bulls look smart in a bubble and all shorts look smart in a crash. Doesn’t make them good. Again, shorts take advantage of macro and try to take a stock down to zero. I’m sorry you don’t think it exists. That’s why as long as a bio company survives the bad macro and strong short attacks, they will blow up next bull cycle.
No One says:
March 28, 2023 at 4:44 pm
There’s a certain kind of investor who blames stuff on short sellers. I’m not surprised that Punkin is that kind. But when his pet stock goes up, it will be his brilliance, not short covering, that he thinks of.Why
Look at the volume. Look at the stock washing. Who the f’k is selling 800k blocks at current pricing? I will tell you who, someone trying to manipulate and hold the price down. F’ing SEC is useless. Only thing that will help DNA now is NEWS. Until then, these f’ers are controlling the stock down. Just look at it. I could care less, as I am long and appreciate the cheap shares. I just hope they aren’t able to bring it down below 1 for too long and force a reverse split.
Libturd says:
March 28, 2023 at 4:29 pm
“They’ve got enough paper profits to take this to 90-cents … if they want.”
Pumps. Please ask the author of the tweet (that’s gotta be where you got this) to explain this line because it makes absolutely no sense.
And you are exactly correct….why do stocks become overvalued? F’ers buying on margin manipulating it up on pure greed. Shorts have to cover, adding to the overvalued price on the stock. They do the same chit on the way down. Just amplified bs on the way up and down.
“But when his pet stock goes up, it will be his brilliance, not short covering, that he thinks of.Why”
“I am not a lawyer or Realtor, but Norm sitting on a barstool sipping suds.”
Haha, why do I have a funny feeling you are all three?
“See if they want to roll the dice with their License on the table.”
Good point. Years ago in a pretty egregious dispute with a GC licensure means a lot…also, at the time, having consulted with a ‘Norm’ the State of NJ imposes an automatic 3x damages on contractors at least in my situation…not sure if it’s applicable to your client’s specific facts but it seems the Realtor is really rolling the dice on a pretty bad bet here…your client would seem to have a lot leverage here.
Back to my original comment though if he actually signed something granting that right who the hell does that. Help this guy out, I’m sure if he’s doing this his finances are likely not that tight…
Nobody should ever, ever, ever sign an exclusive buyer’s agent agreement. If someone hands one to you, tell them to fuck off. There is absolutely nothing they can offer to you in that agreement that has any value worthy of consideration.
If your client can make the case that under no circumstance did that agent have any participation in the chain of events, and played no part in the transaction, and especially no part as being the procuring cause, it’s probably a 50/50 on the judge. That’s probably irrelevant, because by then you are already out the legal fees for the lawsuit.
Fab beat me to the suggestion, but offense might be the best defense here, preemptively filing a complaint. It’s not unreasonable for them to have understood the agreement to be null once they went ahead and rented a property. Why should the exclusivity extend beyond that very specific chain of events? I’d also look to see if this fell into an automatic renewal, which is common in these exclusive broker arrangements (renewing perpetually until specifically cancelled), it’s reasonable to assume the agreement would have automatically terminated on the rental.
Unless that contract was so badly written, they have no claim.
https://www.njrealtorsace.com/Webinar/Attachment/2021/12/20/exclusive-buyer-agency-agreement-/1122/
In most cases, it’s going to be the Realtor Association template. Though I’ve seen broker-specific variations.
So broker is attempting to collect commission of purchase of land even though it was done without any input.
Parasite. Call an exterminator.
Chi, I saw this happen elsewhere. They were able to settle out of court for no money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUMoKPDGEpk
Phoenix, I saw that EBay story on 60 Minutes or 20/20 when I was flipping through the channels. Our justice system is truly favors who has the most money to waste on lawyers. You see, where I differ is I would make that CEO’s life miserable. I would protest in front of their house. I would embarrass their kids in school. Nothing would be illegal. But I would make make him miserable. It would be worth my time.