From Money:
Why Seasonality Doesn’t Matter in the Housing Market This Spring
The housing market usually has seasonal ebbs and flows. Spring is historically a very strong season for the real estate market, and home sales tend to peak during the warmest months of summer.
But now, with interest rate hikes continuing to affect the terms mortgage lenders are offering to homebuyers, seasonality might not hold nearly the same influence on real estate. Rather, it looks like the market in 2023 could be all about mortgage rates.
…
Spring is normally the start of the busiest time of the year for home sales. However, there have been fewer closings than usual so far in 2023, even as the historically-active season kicks off. “We’re not seeing the typical spring seasonal increase in business,” Redfin agent Shauna Pendleton said in a news release.
The real estate market is morphing. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have had a depressing effect on the housing market. When the central bank hikes rates, it becomes more expensive to borrow money. This ripples across to variable-rate loans like credit cards and mortgages, pushing these rates up in turn. The rate hikes are indirectly causing the market to shirk its typical seasonal trends.
As the Fed softens ever so slightly on its most recent rate hike, mortgage rates seem like the new end all, be all for the housing market in 2023.
“There’s no seasonality,” Pendleton said. “Homebuyers and sellers are hyper-focused on mortgage rates.”
First
second
Neighbor 2 houses down put their house up for sale. Saturday and Sunday were both absolute chaos. Saturday open house, but that spilled through to showings most of the day Sunday. $598 on the list price for a 4br, even without the most modern updates, I suspect it’s going to blow right through that number.
third
Saturday and Sunday were both absolute chaos.
The NJ/NY/CT area is exempt. I fully expect local police to start directing traffic when open houses are scheduled. You want an updated updated kitchen and bath, Muffin? No exceptions? Have you considered looking in Stroudsburg, PA?
HIGHEST AND BEST BY MONDAY APRIL 3rd AT 4PM!
https://www.trulia.com/p/pa/stroudsburg/547-berties-rd-stroudsburg-pa-18360–2016409621
Well, my dear, I guess you’ll need to drive a bit further west. May I suggest the Altoona area?
Lost Decade for Global Growth
The World Bank is warning of a “lost decade” ahead for global growth, as the war in Ukraine, the Covid-19 pandemic and high inflation compound existing structural challenges.
The Washington, D.C.-based international lender says that “it will take a herculean collective policy effort to restore growth in the next decade to the average of the previous one.” Three main factors are behind the reversal in economic progress: an aging workforce, weakening investment and slowing productivity.
“Across the world, a structural growth slowdown is under way: At current trends, the global potential growth rate—the maximum rate at which an economy can grow without igniting inflation—is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s,” the World Bank said.
Looks like passive index investing going to take a bat to the head for those that need to cash out towards end of decade.
At current trends, the global potential growth rate—the maximum rate at which an economy can grow without igniting inflation—is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s,” the World Bank said.
6% ROI YOY guaranteed if you buy a house in the NJ/NY area. Close the street, alert the local police to direct traffic when you schedule an open house.
UBS to cut 30 percent of its workforce after its purchase of Credit Suisse in March. I imagine a significant number for the the NYC area, between UBS and Credit Suisse, between the Weehawken/NYC (UBS) and CS NYC, although CS has significantly reduced the NYC operations prior to the merger.
McDonalds too, just saying.
Grim: Yes. I don’t understand why their corporate offices will be closed today through Wednesday, and apparently those who are being laid off will ge notified by e-mail.
See, the issue with UBS, McDonald’s etc. is that they don’t have enough clarity on their diversity, equity and inclusion strategies. This has become the number one policy to achieve profit growth. Obtain a more compassionate message and the muppets will flock to your services!
Marco Rubio was on talking about how we won’t be able to levy sanctions on the rest of the world if they trade in currencies other than the dollar. Oh wait…you mean our crappy foreign policy won’t be able to continue? As much as we like actual war, we like economic war even more.
Eddie, you’d like the new Chris Rock stand up. He talks about Lulu Lemon’s $100 non-racist yoga pants.
When my neighbor sold their home at the peak, it was insane. Cars from NY, CT, MA, and everywhere else in and out. I swear, if I opened up a gate at the back fence, I coulda walked the open house traffic into my home and sold for $700k. Had I not had kids in grade school, I woulda cashed out. It was ridiculous.
Putting in an offer on a house with an ask of $725,000 for a client today. Offer will be a bit above $760,000. Went on the market on Friday.
Grim: Yes. I don’t understand why their corporate offices will be closed today through Wednesday, and apparently those who are being laid off will ge notified by e-mail.
Fear?
Thanks for the appraiser recommendation OGD-30Y
They came out on Saturday and knocked all the units out right quick.
Old Realtor,
Do you think the seller will deal?
BRT,
I just watched the Chris Rock piece. For $100 yoga pants, Lu Lu Lemon hates the poor! Lol!
Cars from NY, CT, MA, and everywhere else in and out.
I constantly see NY and CT plates at open houses in prestigious Bergen County.
Eddie,
Many offers on what is a lovely home in a very desirable town. As of yesterday afternoon there were already 3 offers. Tons of showings yesterday. Not getting my hopes up about my clients getting the house, despite their strong offer.
Grim,
Known Peter for decades. Real solid guy. Glad you were happy!
O.R.,
Good to know a bit of background on it. I often wonder where the next move is for sellers in this area. If they’re old, I get it. If they’re younger, I assume downsizing to a retirement area or out of state. For younger families, cashing out on a so-called starter house and trying to move up is torture.
Grim becoming a multi-family landlord?
ByS, hope you’re OK in these corporate shakeups…
McD’s makes sense to me, especially if there is any appreciable portion of WFH’ers at corporate…want to really piss people off and provoke a scene? Pull them in from home for the first time in a while just to fire them…
You know it’s humorous to mock these listings and sales – and Eddie you hit it out of the park, don’t stop – but there is a side of me that is uneasy….
These purchases are people’s lives…I mean your house is not you, but in a very real sense it is…home. Where you and your wife will mature, where you’ll bring home new human beings, where they will mature….literally the locus of much of what occurs that makes you, you.
That Stroudsberg house hit home for me…obviously a lower income scale than around NNJ but best and final and some young couple making $100k or so is going to scrape by to get in a bidding war over *that*? And be locked into that situation for the majority of those defining life events?
It’s not about the physical structure…I know the difference between a physical house and a happy home, and one certainly does not guarantee the other…but, to have a fulfilling family relationship each person needs to wake up in the morning feeling good about themselves. I’m just not sure literally mortgaging your future for some of these structures is going to make anyone smile at themselves in the mirror in the ensuing mornings…
I mention Stroudsberg, but it’s the same thing in NNJ with a couple turns on the purchase price and mortgage…some of these properties flying by at $750k with bidding wars…how do you lock into those long term…I guess you just have to believe that everything always goes up, your house’s purchase price, your compensation, your investments, and that there won’t be any potholes on your highway of life…
I sound depressing I suppose, not my intent….I just don’t think we’re in a healthy place as a society and I’m not talking about the obvious three ring circus of partisan politics that end of day is really just a sideshow yet consumes so much oxygen. I’m talking about a more base level for 20 and 30-somethings….
11 Great Reasons To Stay In California:
https://babylonbee.com/news/11-great-reasons-to-stay-in-california
Grim,
You see they started clearing the woods by bottle king on rt 23. Damn shame. F’ing affordable housing. I will gladly pay more in taxes to avoid destroying what woods are left in north jersey. Environmentalists should be going hard attacking this affordable housing law that leads the destruction of our environment in nj to build luxury rentals with a sprinkle of affordable housing.
Talking to my lyft driver in Florida yesterday. He was from Tampa area. His town went from 3 restaurants to over 60 in less than 10 years. Absolutely, destroying that state with overbuilding. Then BRT questions why I would not touch it…demographics. They are overbuilding based on a Boomer oversupply. What happens when all these boomers go? Who is going to buy all that chit in 10-20 years at the ridiculous pricing created by massive boomer demographic bloc that overwhelmed supply?
Slowly but steadily, WFH is going to become a nightmare for workers. Think of it like this. When the internet came out, it was awesome, so much free uncontrolled information. Then slowly companies ripped it away. They will do the same to WFH. The pandemic was the free for all, and then slowly companies will adjust to control your life in your home. Just wait.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-the-end-of-the-weekend-as-we-know-it-11ff7655
I’d love to rip the Internet away from you.
Now back to the Colosseum…CNBC reports that a pro-DeSantis PAC brought in $30m since March 9, not pocket change guys, and he’s not even announced.
Also showing live shots of Trump’s jet with the rear door open, waiting for him to board. Big American flag painted on the back lol. I really hope the judge tomorrow tries to impose a gag order, need some new entertainment.
Oh, and my goodness VNO again. Selling out of another tranche. Screen shows me +480%…and that includes shares which are only up 20% or so in the last six trading days…And my AAP up 10% in those same six trading days…Hey Pumpkin, pull up those daily charts…bloody enough for you lol.
Absolutely, destroying that state with overbuilding. Then BRT questions why I would not touch it…demographics.
You live in the most overbuilt region of the country. Yet you are bullish because it’s overbuilt. Then you take the opposite stance on a place that’s overbuilding. We can bring posts up from 6 or 7 years ago badmouthing Florida, all while the growth occurred. Funny thing, you and everyone else who constantly complains about Florida is there this week and next.
Brt,
What age is the majority of the buyers of real estate in Florida? Why don’t you buy some property there? Go long…I dare you.
How much NJ real estate did you buy the last few years?
The Great Pumpkin says:
April 3, 2023 at 11:04 am
Brt,
What age is the majority of the buyers of real estate in Florida? Why don’t you buy some property there? Go long…I dare you.
The house in our neighbor that was priced accordingly was off the market in 7 days, figure it will sell well above asking.
I’m not buying chit….waiting for the next cycle. Time to buy was when I was yelling and screaming on this blog to get as big of a loan as you could and buy real estate….that era is gone. Notice I have not said it for years on this blog.
Hell no multifamily, we’re working through my parent’s estate. Needed an appraisal for tax purposes.
You see they started clearing the woods by bottle king on rt 23. Damn shame. F’ing affordable housing. I will gladly pay more in taxes to avoid destroying what woods are left in north jersey.
It’s a little bit surprising given the fact that the property backs the Pompton River, and it’s only slightly upstream from what was already part of Blue Acres de-development. I know there are ongoing projects on the Pompton to move debris and allow for wetlands to be reclaimed. I know that came up as part of this, and apparently engineers were satisfied with the runoff plans.
The car dealer already maintains two large lots on that property, which I believe are a big part of what will be developed.
By the way, they needed to clear cut that lot before April 1st, when the bats arrive to nest.
…when the bats arrive to nest.
I know this is code for something. ;)
I don’t have a basis of comparison so take it for what it’s worth…but when I was looking at Florida as an area to potentially relocate I was surprised how young it was…yeah, of course, there are areas and towns full of mostly old people but I was very pleasantly surprised at how young and vibrant other areas were.
Generalizing age in FL is probably similar to trying to do so in NY given their sizes, populations, and diversity…hop on the LIE in Montauk, pick up the NYS Thruway in the Bronx and take it the next 400 miles to Buffalo and none of those areas you pass through will necessarily be representative of the next, so yeah painting FL with a broad brush is likely not advised…
Anyway, one noticeable item for me was the number of young adults – recent college grads through to early 30s – who seem to have relocated there straight from college out of their hometowns in flyover America…I’m guessing that’s new…even if not, it’s a good sign for FL…would think many of these people in days past would have gone to the NE or CA…Definitely got the feeling down there it isn’t your Dad’s FL…
Not everything is selling. I bid about $1,250,000 for this at an auction a little more than a year ago.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/20-Cameron-Rd-Saddle-River-NJ-07458/52911411_zpid/
Winning bidder paid $1,610,000. My projected value was $1,850,000. A couple more 100,000 price reductions and they will be close.
Left,
Any boomer that decides to pick up and leave when they retire, go where? Do you understand how massive that buying bloc is? And they all have a ton of money….hence, the huge drive up in coastal Florida pricing. It’s one big boomer competition, and when they are dead, who is going to pick up the pieces at their prices?
Real estate might finally be a very bad investment in the coming decades if population growth remains low or even negative. Have to remember why boomers made so much on real estate through their life….just like stock market, it was driven by massive population growth. Can this economy grow at the same pace with non existent population growth?
I personally would stay far away from Florida real estate. Way too much risk with demographics and natural disasters combined with rising waters.
Interesting, grim….esp the bat part. I didn’t realize it was so close to a flood zone. Should have just let it be….
Left,
No news here but thanks for the concern. If it comes, it comes. I have given up on any understanding over the corp grim reaper. I finished third round last Monday but silence thus far. I just hope no ghosting after all those hours. I truly despise recruiters. All over you when trying to set stuff up but no follow-up at all afterwards. A quick note is not so hard, even if bad news.
Good luck brother.
“For younger families, cashing out on a so-called starter house and trying to move up is torture.”
And may continue to be so?
An argument can be made that the ‘starter-home, move-up’ phenomenon was partly enabled by the decades long bull market in bonds, no?
The long term decline in rates over our adult lives made housing at each level more affordable during the time your income was increasing than it otherwise would have been…all other things being equal what would have been a potentially unaffordable increase in the monthly payment for a more expensive ‘move-up’ home was mitigated because at the time you went to ‘move-up’ rates had moved down…..
It’s just the opposite is happening now with rising rates…no one wants to move because your monthly payment doesn’t go up pro-rata (adjusted simply for the increase in purchase price), it explodes as the increased price is financed at higher rates…
Mirror images…the first long term trend worked in your favor (and may not come back); the current trend doesn’t work in your favor and is TBD…
This most recent ‘freshman class’ of starter home buyers may be in those residences a lot longer than they ever planned if they want to stay in this area.
left, approximately 2 years ago, I stated on the blog…all my coworkers were selling their homes for over 500k and moving into $750k homes on 75k salaries. These are teachers.
Dual income brings it closer to $150k, but still…. They used the profits from the sale to trade up on down payment and levered themselves up more on the debt. I was telling them to just refi and celebrate the win for the next 30 years.
oh, and the guy behind me bought his “starter home” for $700k in a bidding war. He’s 29, drives a Tesla, and is single. I haven’t seen him at the house in 6 months. No trash outside. He’ll be in the same spot my coworkers were in 2008, taking $100k loss on a $400k cape in Bridgewater to get a nicer home.
Left: Staying in a so called starter house is not a bad thing, add on if need be, and or renovate. People today have one, maybe two kids I know some that are in the one and done camp. I don’t see the need to do the move up house thing,unless perhaps it’s a better school system.
It certainly feels to me like doors are shutting on a chapter of American life. You can never convince me that a previously 500k home in now 800k in a few short years and everything is ok. You can’t tell me that stock highs can continue to be reached when borrowing rates are highest in decades. You can’t convince me that inflation is under control and 6% in acceptable. You can’t convince me that companies are going to pay higher salaries for white collar when people are getting dumped into job market everyday. This whole think stinks, yet here we are. The millennials are now fully forced into dual income situation. The kids will be raised by flim-flam quasi-education pre-schools from birth onwards. Tired (or just lazy parents) will put a screen in front of them when they get home. They will never read a book . They will be brought to some drop off generic play facility ages 5-12 that promises to build confidence and strength in 45m. Birthday parties will be thoughtless events, pay somebody extravagant amount to worry about it all. In other words, a soul-less debt serving society that will punish our future generations with zero parenting, zero care, zero education. No one will be watching home base as third world rounds second.
Bystander…..Very very dark. Not exactly wrong though.
I think we all fear the future for the kids.
Bystander: You have addressed much of what I have been saying for years, except it’s even worse now, and you put addressed it far more eloquently than I have .
And yet there are those who cheer this on, and believe it’s perfectly fine, and in fact champion it.
The same time… each generation says this same stuff and ultimately everyone ends up fine!
I have been dealing with these type of students for 18 years. It’s really sad…
“In other words, a soul-less debt serving society that will punish our future generations with zero parenting, zero care, zero education. No one will be watching home base as third world rounds second.”
Remember, the poor kids I work with are basically third world citizens living in America. It will never change. Some will take advantage of the free education and move up (smart ones), but most will waste away as they need a parent to crack the whip for them to actually try in school. The parents don’t give a chit. They abuse their kids.
I love when an admin tells me to call their parents. Sure, the same parents that allowed their child to reach 9th grade at the second grade reading level….right. That will work.
Mike S: True, in that’s what has been said in the past. But, I really don’t think it’s that simple. And, it’s easier for those of us who are fine to dismiss what Bystander has said.
1:42 I’ve met a lot of immigrant kids some of whom are refreshingly optimistic.
We tend to forget that for some the USA represents a big upgrade over their former homeland. Still lots of opportunities here!
Ex,
We need them to succeed. That’s America’s “bread and butter.” Taking ambitious immigrants, helping them with opportunities, and making America great. That’s why I hate when people complain about these schools and call them “failing” for not being on par with rich suburban kids. They totally miss the point. You are not going to save them all…you are simply providing opportunity and hoping the ambitious smart ones run with it and become successful. That’s been the secret to America’s success.
True, it’s also been open season on schools & teachers for quite a while now.
Some criticism is warranted and of course a lot of it isn’t applicable.
YMMV
grim,
Please build your customer service death star ASAP. Companies… that are quasi-monopolies, that screw up too often, that want you to use their app/website rather than call but their app/website is garbage and their phone support is intentionally even worse… are very annoying.
It’s all in how you raise your kids.
Forget all the web-related social media stuff. The kids will be just fine if they are taught how to survive.
Some lessons for the younger ones. Labels on clothing don’t matter. Buy quality, but wait for sales. Buy bathing suits in the Fall and Winter coats in the Spring. Teach your kids finance from day one. Let them know what you pay in taxes, for the mortgage, for life insurance and for the groceries.
Here’s a perfect example of how it’s done. Sneakers are how 7-12th graders judge each other by. For a long time, he would wear what ever I bought him, which were mainly cheap Nikes, but as he hit his teens, they would literally rip in the first few weeks and would need replacement in 3 months. I’ve been wearing The North Face sneakers/boots since I was in college since I did a lot of hiking. They retail at $120, but you could always find a few pairs for $50-$70 depending on the features (Vibram sole, Gore-Tex, hiker vs, runner) in lots of online stores like Sierra Trading, Zappos, Finish Line, etc. These sneakers, I kid you not, last me three tough years, regardless of features. I started making him where them and sure enough, he got nearly two years out of them. He’s a HS senior this year. He really wanted back on the Nike trend. A charity for cancer siblings actually offered him $125 xmas gift, so he bought these really nice Nikes ON SALE on Amazon. They ripped the first day. I’m not kidding. It’s three months later and they are in tatters. I look at his feet a few days ago and told him that I’d be embarrassed to still be wearing those. You could see his socks in three different places. He then says to me, “Can you get me the same pair of North Face shoes I wore for the last two years?”
It really comes down to understanding finance. Every time something broke at the multi (which is what we called our investment property) or when snow needed shoveling and other maintenance was needed, I made him come over with me. He knew the multi was his college savings. and I always told him, whatever it was worth would determine where you go to college. Once he threatened me that he wasn’t coming to help me shovel the snow. I told him that’s an awesome costly decision. He realized his error and walked the 1/2 mile in the snow when Gator warned him. Now he’s somewhat handy, understands hard work and was able to watch 250 K turn into 900K in 16 years. He REALY understands the value of money and how important it is to save it and invest it. He also listens in on my investment club meetings.
He’s close to deciding on a college. We are visiting UF on Thursday and UMASS/Amherst/Providence again the following Friday. He most likely has 7 years of schooling left, so he’ll have to choose wisely. We’ll see how all of these finance lessons come into play in a few more weeks when he decides. He’s aware that if he goes for value, we’ll give him an old car and will help him with his first home dowpayment. If he chooses say USD, that’s it. Don’t expect any help whatsoever. Start saving for books and looking for an apartment. I can’t wait for his decision.
So it’s a lot more than frugality that he’s learned. He knows that those who flaunt it probably have small dicks. And most of these kids dads are never home before 7pm and miss all of their sporting events, school plays, etc. But the kid gets to wear a t-shirt that says “Supreme” on it. Hope it’s worth it.
Mike,
I agree to some extent but every year globalization and automation pushes the rest of the world closer to us. Each year, the American knowledge worker becomes less valuable. Bill Maher had Scott Galloway on a few weeks back. A good shift from DC politics as he put it on the line with future for men/fathers – social media addiction, drugs, lack of dating, violence, behind on education, losing out on careers. Not good at all. It was a shattering listen. As an older parent with young kids, I do see things differently bc I am forced to interact with parents a decade (some cases, 15 years) younger than myself. I have not been invited to a single bday party at someone’s house for years. Younger parents want to do generic, 1 hour and done at some fancy sports facility that charges $600 for crummy pizza yet you still provide own drinks/dessert. I would say $1k easy after (crazy) goodie bags, shirts, decorations, cake, tips. People don’t want to devote time anymore. I am not perfect myself but our kids are voracious readers. We read to them everyday since birth. We bring them to NYC, travel to national parks. I see the kids in my 8YO class and many of them never been to NYC. Certainly few travel west..it is parents bringing to Caribbean or FL for big vacation at Atlantis. It is high-expectation, high-consumption, big splash crowd. Not saying bad people but we get more vapid every year. It is concerning how quickly you could fall off cliff if not careful. Younger people are not careful right now and pretty much forced into difficult financial situations..but their hopes are high that more money is coming.
Here was a clip from Scott several months back. Getting this guys book.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAgUHyXr7_Y
Good stuff Lib! Somewhere along the line our kiddo got caught up in the vintage clothing fad. She loves old stuff that she finds in thrift shops. She also tends to appreciate simple things like a portable radio for example. Just a great kid that somehow we raised and would do anything for. I always let her know that we are not “rich” just so she doesn’t get the wrong idea. She is down to earth and a lot of fun to be around. There are kids that we know who were brought up in affluence and perhaps had mom’s who did not work who are floundering in their late twenties waiting to meet someone to take care of them, but without the requisite attributes that might make that dream a reality. I have found that life is a bit of a crap shoot, but often if you have your head on straight, you can make you own luck.
Good job, Lib.
Exactly.
Speaking of those kids birthday parties. We sometimes go the lousy route, but got really smart at at D’s, last one. D absolutely loved the trampolines and foam pits at those jump places so we had his party there. They force you to buy the cardboard pizza, but we told them they could keep it. Instead we did the party at brunch time on Sunday and brought in bagels fruit, fruit salad and muffins. The kids loved it and all the parents were incredibly grateful.
But talking about old-school parties, when my older son was about ten, we had all the kids play street hockey at our town rink (free), and we ran a skills competition in the playground by the rink. Obstacle course, swing jump, pull-ups. Brought in pizza and Gatorade. To this day, my friends parents still like to tell me how amazing it was. I felt silly at the time, but the kids thought it was awesome. It was killer hot out too, which made it that much better.
Lib: Well said, and I agree, but it appears we are in the minority.
Yep Lib. That is great advice. My kids love returning bottles with me. We split it three ways. Admittedly, my 8YO still has spoiled mentality. Still wants alot of things. I try to explain costs but so easy with a big family, friends, classmates. The world makes it very difficult. Honestly, I tell my son that he needs to save $10 for new Lego toy and it has ended up in a bday goodie bag. JFC. Parents had a party at Dave and Busters yesterday and each kid got a loaded game card. My son ended up hitting ticket jackpot twice and he and a friend picked out Minecraft toy he wanted. Previously, I told him he had to wait until bday which is still 4 months away. Tough.
ByS, 1:14p, nicely done.
Ex,
Immigration culture cuts both ways. I see people that work hard, make little money and spend it on crap clothes, crap video games and stuffing fat kids with crap food at the mall (I unfortunately went to two yesterday as I avoid them most of time). There are lots of Chinese, Indian and some South American immigrant families which absolutely push education and will knock entitled white kids off their blocks. That is the forthcoming problem, starting high up and maintaining it. That is coming problem for many in America and we will grown angrier and angrier bc we don’t see culturally how different others are. Indians and Chinese are not allowing their kids social media, TV and all other American blubber to rot their minds. Our cultural consumerism will be our end.
3:33 Everything starts at home. I see it every day. It’s fascinating. Cuts across cultures. Good parenting and perhaps the right mix of DNA and you have a great kid. Someone who you want to see succeed. Nurturing this and sustaining this into adulthood is the key. I know that this current batch of kids communicates differently, socializes differently, and have some very different ideas about how to spend their time and money. The really hard working and accomplished kids / students may always be in demand. The rest of “us” have to get by on good looks and personality!!
Here’s the last thing I did and I think it is very powerful. Nothing is taboo in our household. My son had his first taste of beer in Mexico at age 5 and actually liked it. I’ve always offered him a sip of whatever I was drinking. At Jewish holidays, I would allow him a full glass of wine. I wanted him to drink responsibly. Though he goes to high school parties, he’ll be the one kid there drinking one beer an hour. It’s funny, I turned him into a beer snob. He brings a couple of my really good craft beers and his friends thinks he’s cool. Meanwhile, they are all getting sloshed and my son is the only one sober enough to drive these typicals home. I told him the same thing about weed. Smoke up if you really want to. You will in college anyway. But no smoking and driving and in moderation. Or do what I do. Never ever buy it, but join in if someone is feeling generous with theirs. But never, ever, take a pill today and stay away from those edibles as they are too strong. I even offered to smoke with him. And though he feels awkward when I am this open around him and his friends, I know it’s working.
Lib,
In other words, if Dad thinks its cool then it ain’t cool and I won’t rebel and use it. Nice.
Because this made me laugh a lot. Lincoln face palm is priceless.
https://twitter.com/shawnmpatterson/status/1642743019416989696
Funny Lib, I’ve mentioned that transition with my children that goes from adult:child to adult:adult. I have that, it’s really nice when that hits.
What opened the door with my oldest where I went from ‘Dad’ to someone he could trust on his own level…visiting him at college on a big gameday weekend, he’s living off-campus and everyone in his house has people over, place is packed, I’m by far the oldest ‘guest’. Beers are flowing everywhere, people are cutting out to one kid’s fraternity which is having a pre-game party, and there’s a smaller group all throwing each other sideways looks…I noticed the [poorly hidden] bong behind the TV the night before. I just looked right at my kid and glanced the room and said “don’t let me stop you”. Rest of kids are all looking surprised like “what do you mean”. My kid who was next to me on the sofa turns a full 90 degrees, doesn’t say anything but looks me kind of up and down and kind of skeptically and goes “seriously?”. I said again with smirk and a shrug don’t let me stop you. Haven’t since my own college days seen a bong come out so quickly lol…I didn’t partake, don’t smoke, but since then and building over more serious and substantive issues during the years I’ve become someone he really opens up to and asks for advice since, I believe, he understands there won’t judgement or admonishment, just honest, best interest advice meeting him on his terms.
Phoenix,
Have you heard about King v Brownback? Almost nine years of litigation regarding police abuse.
Bystander, your posts on 1:14 and 2:41PM are excellent. So relevant, and so [expletive] spot on.
We are guilty of throwing a party in one of those overpriced places. I’m not sure if it’s because ours was after four other people threw their child’s parties in these places, or if it is because we live in a rental (in which we have little control over equipment/appearance). We don’t want to be judged by folks whose mortgage we could likely pay off by writing a check? Or is it that we feel uneasy, and second guess ourselves because we didn’t outbid BRT’s neighbor for a crap shack?
The waste that ZIRP left behind on people’s lives is astonishing. $9K nuts on 2BR condos in Hoboken, $500-750K for SFH’s out “in the sticks”, people driving BMW X7’s to WalMarts.
Lol – Trump’s lawyers argued against letting cameras in the courtroom.
Tiny 1,100 sq ft Ranch on busy street by me across from the cemetery, another flip just sold for $550,000. Very old 1960 and no garage. There are four new homes being built right next to it.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/197-Oak-Hill-Rd-Red-Bank-NJ-07701/39331928_zpid/
Boomer: And now the Fed wants to put a stop to this great party, by raising rates, but have no fear, a little regional banking crisis, and now the market prices in rate cuts before year end. Let the party continue!!
Dude is a pure teacher. I know general public chits on the teaching profession in “rich” northeast….but we do multiple jobs. That’s why i laugh at the corporate bs put downs. I don’t know about corporate workspace or wfh….because i am a teacher? Gtfoh. We are on the frontline of management. Our grades dictate future workers. Never give me that bs takedown again…we are managing a group of the toughest human beings on the planet…teenagers!!!
And now imagine the teenagers don’t give a f’k about their grade…try managing that and you can’t fire them, but your job is tied to their performance. Welcomes to my world. And then you have the homer simpsons of the world call us a failing school and failing teachers. Go f’k yourself. Lmao
ExEx says:
April 3, 2023 at 3:42 pm
3:33 Everything starts at home. I see it every day. It’s fascinating. Cuts across cultures. Good parenting and perhaps the right mix of DNA and you have a great kid. Someone who you want to see succeed. Nurturing this and sustaining this into adulthood is the key. I know that this current batch of kids communicates differently, socializes differently, and have some very different ideas about how to spend their time and money. The really hard working and accomplished kids / students may always be in demand. The rest of “us” have to get by on good looks and personality!!
Captain cheepo strikes again! Love it, Lib!
“Never ever buy it, but join in if someone is feeling generous with theirs.”
Nailed it.
Bystander says:
April 3, 2023 at 5:09 pm
Lib,
In other words, if Dad thinks its cool then it ain’t cool and I won’t rebel and use it. Nice.
Pumps re: “I don’t know”
I don’t believe you.
“In other words, if Dad thinks its cool then it ain’t cool and I won’t rebel and use it.”
Exactly is right.
Median Household Income, by State:
1. Maryland: $96,000
2. New Jersey: $94,000
3. Massachusetts: $93,500
4. Hawaii: $92,000
5. California: $88,000
6. Connecticut: $87,800
7. New Hampshire: $87,600
8. Washington: $86,500
9. Virginia: $84,000
10. Colorado: $84,000
11. Utah: $83,000
12. Minnesota: $81,500
13. New York: $79,000
14. Rhode Island: $78,000
15. Delaware: $76,000
There are now 22 states in the US with a median household income of $70,000 or more.
On the other hand, there are now 30 states where 30% or more of median household income is spent on new home payments.
Interesting. Dna…it’s at the forefront of AI data accumulation. That is money that is not valued by current investors, but will be by future investors. They haven’t adapted to the new investing world yet.
“Stanford just released a MASSIVE 386-page report on the state of AI.
Here are the 12 most interesting trends that you should know.
The link for the previous post.
https://twitter.com/nonmayorpete/status/1643012248720523264?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
Dad being present has more of a difference, as long as he isn’t an angry douche.
I am not giving my kids alcohol and drugs. Why you might ask? Read a few books about the craving brain. They need time to develop to even realize what is is actually happing up there.
Juice,
My dad took the same approach as Lib. I didn’t have a drink till senior year graduation parties. Hung with the cool kids, but was straight edge. College is where i went hard experimenting. Why, because that is part of the college experience. If you didn’t do this, you didn’t live. Like going to Disney and not going on space mountain.
Pumps – Your DNA and mine, we rose above it.
Think about what I just said about the science behind it, the craving brain.
Give them that lesson at least the one before Dad is Cool!..
Joyce,
No but will look it up.
Gonna have nightmares tonight. Sometimes I see something or meet someone who’s diagnosis disturbs me. Always the nice ones.
Joyce,
Just read that. Interesting.
The system does not like to convict itself even it is guilty, however.
Juice,
To each their own. YMMV.