From the NJ Monitor:
State ‘well prepared’ to handle $2B dip in tax revenue, treasurer says
New Jersey will collect roughly $2 billion less in taxes in the current and coming fiscal years, but the years of booming revenue will let the state weather the shortfall without much trouble, state budget experts told lawmakers Wednesday.
Despite the looming shortfalls, officials said New Jersey is well prepared to meet the funding shortfall, which could do little more than cut the state’s surplus from a healthy $10 billion to a still healthy $8 billion.
“We are well prepared to handle this April surprise,” Treasurer Liz Muoio told the Assembly Budget Committee Wednesday.
The declines are driven mostly by worse-than-expected gross income tax collections in the month of April, when business owners and others who do not pay taxes through regular withholdings typically settle their tax bills with the state.
Muoio attributed the expected drop in income tax collections to poor stock market performance and a significant reduction in state capital gains taxes. That revenue declined by at least 55% — only slightly less than the drops seen after the Great Recession and the burst of the dot-com bubble.
Still, most of the state’s other revenue sources continued to perform at or above expectations, and state revenue in the fiscal year that ends June 30 is still expected to exceed last year’s forecasts.
“This is not the cataclysmic event that it would have been 10 or 20 years ago,” said Thomas Koenig, budget and finance officer with the nonpartisan Office of Legislative Services.
Officials now expect the state to collect roughly $52.8 billion in tax revenue in fiscal year 2023 and fiscal year 2024, which begins July 1.
First
The fat lady is warming up …Anybody with a functioning brain knows the USA will never pay back the $32 trillion national debt.
When does route 80 become a toll road?
Hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen tells investors to ride the ‘big wave’ of artificial intelligence and stop focusing on recession odds
Hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen told investors to ride the “big wave” of artificial intelligence.
Focusing too much about a recession may cause investors to miss AI opportunities, he added.
“I’m actually pretty bullish,” Cohen said at a private event, according to Bloomberg.
There really aren’t many pure play AI picks outside of maybe Nvidia.
You’ve got Microsoft, Google, Amazon – which all have broad exposure outside of AI.
I would not include Meta, Tesla, or the half a dozen other names that are called “AI” because their products have some features that’s got an AI component to them.
Investors have very few options to ride the AI wave. Ironically, many companies are going to realize they also have few options to really capitalize on it from a revenue perspective (not cost savings, that’s obvious).
Phoenix – Told ya so…on CitiBike Karen…
You were hoodwinked by social media.
“The lawyer for a Manhattan hospital worker accused of taking a Citi Bike from a young black man — who claimed that he paid for the two-wheeler — provided receipts he says shows she was the one who purchased the ride at the center of the viral incident.”
“The Bellevue Hospital employee — who was branded a “Karen” on social media afterward — rented the bike first, lawyer Justin Marino said in a statement to The Post Wednesday.
He also provided two Citi Bike receipts from May 12, which were timestamped just minutes apart.
The first receipt reviewed by The Post shows the bike being taken out before it was re-locked one minute later, which Marino said is the bike seen in the video.
The second receipt shows another bike being taken out a minute later from the same docking station and was the bike Marino said his client used to get home after being “heckled and pressured to find a new bike” by the group.”
https://nypost.com/2023/05/18/nyc-hospital-karen-paid-for-citi-bike-at-center-of-fight-with-black-man/
I would also be very, very careful in investing in any company touting themselves as being an AI company.
Realize that most all of the intellectual property in this space is in the public domain and out of academia. OpenAI does not have the magic algorithm, they were simply the first to invest in the data needed to create a large model, and make it public facing. Read that over and over again until you understand it. Not to mention that the core team there is a few dozen people. Their “special sauce” is widely known, and repeatable. It doesn’t take 500 PhD data scientists. The winners here are those who have the data needed to make these tools work well. The gap isn’t AI, it’s huge volumes of pristine data. Who has the most data? Who has the best data? Who has the most relevant industry and domain-specific data? These will be the winners. Hands down, these will be the winners. Once you have the best dataset in a particular domain, you can simply layer on newer and newer algos, the data doesn’t go bad, it is always fundamental.
Second place goes to the companies that sell the compute necessary to power these tools, and the hardware necessary to make them sing (at this point, it’s firmly Nvidia, and their downstream semiconductor suppliers).
Don’t invest in who says they are “AI”, invest in who has the most robust, richest, monetizable pools of data (sorry, it’s not Meta, they are in data jail at this point).
Grim – Cathy is all in on AI.
Ark holds significant amounts of stock in companies C3.ai, Upstart and UiPath.
What more is there to really say?
None of those are AI companies.
Be very afraid of AI…
I spoke to a recruiter this week from a large company that has big plans for AI around payroll, taxes, HR, benefits etc. This is all back office products they are building to sell to their customers and pretty much everyone is their customer. Big Big plans and they are not the only ones. The ROI is a pretty easy one, all these back office jobs….centered around employee administration. The only job left might be recruiters but then again what for if there are no more employees to hire?
Databricks is one that comes to mind – but not public either. So maybe Snowflake, though I’ve never dug into it to know if their are overvalued.
grim – Err, read between lines. “What more is there to really say?”
I purposely left out NVIDIA as a ARK holding because that is a good play.
Anyway don’t tell me tell the Ark shareholders. (your kinsman from the clan). Ark published a whole paper out on her AI investments last month touting some $200 Trillion in worldwide productivity, like AI will run the entire world, maybe someday but not today..
I would expect the non-public companies that make any significant inroads into the corporate world to be gobbled up by Microsoft, Google, Salesforce, Workday etc etc.
Maybe Applied Materials would have been the play to make? Too late there. Intel as a Hail Mary?
On the topic of AI buzz, irrespective of whether something is really AI, I’ve a radar of relatively new tech issuances which are seeing accumulation. These three popped up: EVLV, SYM, and IONQ.
I would expect the non-public companies that make any significant inroads into the corporate world to be gobbled up by Microsoft, Google, Salesforce, Workday etc etc.
Don’t disagree, listening to Altman, et. al testimony to congress, it’s clear that the corporates are lobbying for AI regulatory requirements as a form of corporate protectionism.
DNA DNA DNA! Say it with me!
“The winners here are those who have the data needed to make these tools work well. The gap isn’t AI, it’s huge volumes of pristine data. Who has the most data? Who has the best data? Who has the most relevant industry and domain-specific data? These will be the winners. Hands down, these will be the winners.”
I just created an AI platform, I’m calling it OZ.
Experts are weighing in on how AI will change the workplace. Among their predictions: AI will change what workers spend their time on, what capabilities they can tap and, as a result, how companies themselves are organized, WSJ reports. Read the full story here.
Automating Ideas: Knowledge workers could spend more time editing than creating, particularly as generative AI is embedded into all the software products they use today. (Michael Chui, partner, McKinsey Global Institute)
Flatter organizations: As more tasks become automated, there could be less need for entry-level workers or people who manually compile or analyze information and less need for supervisory roles, resulting in flatter organizations. (Darrell West, senior fellow, governance studies, Brookings Institution)
Lower barrier to entry for tapping technology: Today, most organizations suffer from a “digital dexterity gap,” where the workforce is largely unable to keep pace with fast-changing technology. AI services strip away complexity with conversational interfaces and natural-language processing. (Matt Cain, vice president and distinguished analyst, Gartner)
Remote work’s impact
Though the study involved cellphone data from before Covid, the researchers say it has implications for an era when many people work all or part of the time from home.
The researchers looked at people who occasionally worked from home in the study period, based on where their phones were located during daytime hours, and then at how that affected their probability of attending planned or serendipitous meetings with someone from another company who didn’t work from home, Prof. Chen says.
Looking at two hypothetical companies, the researchers extrapolated that if one-half of employees at each business work from home, their meetings of all types—serendipitous and planned—would fall 35% and patent citations between the companies would decline almost 12%.
“We think this means information exchange between firms is decreasing,” Prof. Chen says. “It is worrying. These businesses co-locate for a reason. If they can’t learn from each other, we think that is a big deal.”
“Presumably,” he adds, “an even bigger effect is the harm that it does to serendipity and flow of information and innovation within the firm.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/remote-work-less-innovation-6fc7c398
Innovation is over rated, except in teaching. Why do we need? No one needs to write, spell it calculate. Soon we won’t need to do thinking as it has already been thunk (tip to Seuss) That said, AI for president 2024.
AI for president… now that’s a novel idea!
re: AI regulation..Altman said any AI that can change people’s opinions aka control people should be regulated and licensed. Very Very broad but targeted to the vast debates that occur online social media platforms for sure.
I would be more concerned what our DoD is doing with AI than anything. Strategic Technology Office at DARPA has been actively working on militarized drone swarms, billions being spent etc, the drone race has been on for sometime now.
I expect AI targeting to be vastly improved, no more shaky drone footage of a manually flown drone dropping a home made bomb on a soldier in a trench. Instead AI run drone army swarms using real time and archived visual data, radar, and IR, and radio signals data to identify a target and destroy.
Example of signals data. Detect the type of encryption used in a radio communication to target the enemy. AI drones working in coordination could run vast scans of radio signals triangulate their origin and identify as friend or foe by the data markers in the packets being transmitted even when encrypted.
It goes on an on endless possibilities with visual and other signals data.
Speaking of dangerous flying weapons the Russians have launched perhaps over 100 long range missiles at Ukrainian capital Kyiv alone this month, yet the electrical power is still on, and there are reports that people aren’t even using the bomb shelters when the sirens go off. I would estimate we shot about 1/2 Billion dollars worth of patriot interceptor and other missile systems to stop them , as reported 29 of 30 incoming missiles shot down last night alone.
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-kyiv-missile-attack-russia-25c5759adee9648949c314b81950089e
It’s broader than that.
Registration and licensing of AI?
Additional regulatory scrutiny when scale or compute thresholds are reached?
Independent 3rd party review and audit?
For a lot of companies, fewer meetings would be a wonderful thing. Too many meetings are what mid-level managers hold to justify their existence and distract people from their real work.
Sure it is broader the legislation is in the pipeline since last year and was just updated again. Remember the lobbyists write many of these bills.
It was suggested at the hearing new government agency be created to regulate AI like the Atomic energy commission but it seems they are trying to move quicker
..Legislation now introduced in the Senate again…. ” Federal Digital Platform Commission”.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/tech/bennet-digital-regulator-bill-ai-provisions/index.html
No One = AI will solve that problem fewer people = fewer meetings….
“Too many meetings are what mid-level managers hold to justify their existence and distract people from their real work.”
You can say that again.
I am pretty much at a ping me, if you need me, status.
In the future AI will do all the thinking and robots all the manual labor. The robots? That will be you the bio-robot given tasks by the AI to keep you happy.
I was talking to management at Recruit (owner of Indeed and Glassdoor) earlier this year and they were talking about incorporating more AI, and getting deeper with clients from search, moving farther into the hire and onboarding process.
But I wonder if AI will end up creating more new entrants into the online job search industry, hurting Indeed’s leading market share in the future. On the other hand, Indeed probably has more data on which to train AI that competitors may not have.
One thing is for sure, there will be lots of small new companies promising the moon with AI, seeking investor money, whether VC or IPO. As is the case for most hot investment “stories”, most will be duds. Where can a company create sustainable competitive advantage with AI that competitors and new entrants can’t copy? It’s not an easy question to answer. Perhaps it will be effective in the short run to just buy everything early, and wait for the wave of fools to chase it up, and sell it all at some point while they are doing so. I’ve never been one to play such games, for the same reason I’m not a great bluffer in poker.
No one,
No one likes meetings, but that interaction is what results in innovative growth. Sure, majority of the time meetings don’t add to anything, but those few meetings where that magical spark happens drive all the gains of said company. Eliminating contact time at meetings (zoom doesn’t count because it doesn’t have side conversations that lead to new ideas) drastically reduces your odds of hitting these special moments.
This is why remote work sucks long-term. It’s good enough to drive status quo with minimal changes, but it does not allow a company to really grow.
Queue the AI conspiracy theorists.
Bilderberg event kicks off today. 130 top minds including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/18/bilderberg-openai-microsoft-google-join-ai-talks-at-secretive-meeting.html
I wonder what Elon will tweet since it seems he was not invited again.
I’m still at the not seeing AI solve much stage, besides solving the writing disability most workers have. Can someone, anyone, provide me any example of intelligence yet that does not resemble the cobbled results of a Google search? Seriously!
I know I sound like a fuddy duddy here, but I spend the majority of my team designing automated workflows with some extremely powerful automation software. This software does not design nor determine the flows. One must learn and use Node.js and other scripting languages (in my case Visual Basic and JavaScript) to make the preprogrammed modules in the workflows connect with what must be customized. The software does not “learn” anything. There is nothing “artificial” occurring.
I use software to train on new Video Poker games. This software is the closest thing I’ve scene to AI in that is learns what mistakes you are making and throws more of the hands which you screw up at you and stops wasting your time dealing hands that you know how to play properly. In this way, you learn much quicker than if this intelligence was not programmed into the program and it kept dealing you random hands instead of focusing on the ones you struggle with.
What should AI be? Looking at everything you ever ordered in say the Dunkin’ App and combine this with the most frequently ordered products at that location. Then combining these two datasets to order the menu in the app so the stuff you are most likely to order remains at the top of the menu. Or for the store, looking at what is ordered and when and automatically telling the baker what to make and when.
One example. That’s all I’m looking for. Or am I confusing heuristics with AI?
Juice,
You were right. Her reputation is damaged. Can she sue?
I’m interested in how the American Legal System is going to make her whole.
10:17 talking out of your ass again I see.
SoCal economy set to lose Billions re: writers strike.
CA state coffers swing to a big loss from a massive surplus.
Amgen merger blocked….damn.
Ugly tailwinds.
Jesus take wheel!! Soon to be replaced by “AI” take the wheel.
AI
Looks like we are leaving our children one big fu kin g mess to grow up in.
It’s criminal what we are doing.
What our children will need to do is blow a couple of massive EMP charges.
Burn every electrical thing to the ground. Start fresh.
Lib – Think of the days when the internet was born. If you were not on it doing something you would be left behind. Doing what exactly besides wasting time?
Right now unsubstantiated AI claims is what it’s all about now.
Sundar Pichar claimed on 60 minutes a few weeks ago their AI learned how to speak another language Bengali on it’s own. Nobody programmed it, it just magically learned on it’s own. Believe in the Google Bard magic, it is stronger than Microsoft!!! Invest in our AI now or lose out forever, sign here on the dotted line we will only charge you monthly for cpu usage and storage and you get our magically AI!!!
“No one likes meetings, but that interaction is what results in innovative growth. Sure, majority of the time meetings don’t add to anything, but those few meetings where that magical spark happens drive all the gains of said company. Eliminating contact time at meetings (zoom doesn’t count because it doesn’t have side conversations that lead to new ideas) drastically reduces your odds of hitting these special moments.”
A typical teacher comment that has been so out of touch with how much one can do with remote meeting software. I am sure he is completely unaware of how easy it is to make siderooms or have sidebars that do not distract the presenter. The availability of whiteboards within the software as well as giving everyone the ability to share out what they are working in.
I’ve always said the biggest problem with our educational system is that teachers teach what they learned in college. In ten years, they will be teaching children mostly obsolete information. We’ve seen teachers who don’t even know how to email. The average teacher today does not even know how to perform a survey online. But ask them to teach your kid how to write in cursive and they know all of the tricks.
Of course, the worst part of this is that the longer the teachers have been around, the more tenured they become and their salaries shut out any chance of the schools hiring new teachers who at least can operate a computer. This is currently going on in Montclair right now. Covid and the deplorable conditions of Montclair schools reduced the number of students by 600. Lots of new teachers are going to get fired. The kindergarten teacher with her master’s degree from Bloomfield College in 1975, will continue to teach until she is 80. Why not? She’s probably pulling in 150K by now.
BT to cut up to 55,000 jobs by 2030 as fibre and AI arrive
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/bt-meets-expectations-with-5-rise-full-year-earnings-2023-05-18/
Wont a lot of other companies do large cuts over the next few years do to AI?
Cars are driving themselves around now as we speak. Amazon warehouse is one big AI robotic show. It’s coming, Lib, and it’s coming fast and hard. They are now experimenting with chats at fast food joints to take orders. Soon enough, you will not talk to a human being when ordering something anywhere.
The minute computers started beating the best human chess players, the writing was on the wall.
Libturd says:
May 18, 2023 at 10:28 am
I’m still at the not seeing AI solve much stage, besides solving the writing disability most workers have. Can someone, anyone, provide me any example of intelligence yet that does not resemble the cobbled results of a Google search? Seriously!
No, you just don’t get it. It’s through in person conversation, that is pure randomness, where ideas are formed and spread. People need to have the patience to have these conversations, but current “me mentality” is killing it. People are so damn selfish they don’t want their time being used to talk to other people. It’s frightening. My work/life balance demands that I talk to no one, perform my task while at home, get paid lots of money, and then go about my life at home….this is the broken selfish mindset infecting workers now.
Musk is right to call out these remote workers on the moral issue. You want service workers to come in to work, but it’s not cool for your work life balance for you to come into an office and actually work? Get a life. If this is the case, why don’t you start paying people that actually go to work a lot more money. It’s morally wrong that you get paid more, demand that you work from home, but then expect the low paid janitor to come clean the hospital. Can you say entitled and selfish?
ExEx says:
May 18, 2023 at 10:28 am
10:17 talking out of your ass again I see.
Phoenix – God might do it for us. If you wake up one evening and look outside and see luminous waves of massive red auroral displays and nothing electrical is working that is god’s work. A massive solar storm would take out everything electrical worldwide for years. It happened back in 1859 and can happen again, the sun just needs some indigestion and a big burp of energy right now we are just getting small baby burps every few hours.
Good news is we might get a 1/2 hour warning to kiss our iPhones goodbye as we have lots of satellites watching for it today.
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-flares.html
It’s not the same. Again, why was education a failure under remote conditions. Don’t tell me high school kids are young. Don’t tell me they aren’t good with technology. Why did education fail under this system? Could it be that in-person is better? Don’t tell me this doesn’t apply to adults in the work place. I don’t care about your individual perspective, I care about the avg human being. Avg human being doesn’t give a f/k under remote conditions. FACTS. The students didn’t give a f/k under remote conditions, but of course people like you blame the teachers like you always do. You will tell me your gifted and ambitious student was successful under remote learning…well guess what, he is just a successful individual. He is not the avg.
“A typical teacher comment that has been so out of touch with how much one can do with remote meeting software. I am sure he is completely unaware of how easy it is to make siderooms or have sidebars that do not distract the presenter. The availability of whiteboards within the software as well as giving everyone the ability to share out what they are working in.”
Pumps – Learning mode robots are not the same as production line worker robots. Once they are taught what and how to do it they are shipped off and expected to become self sufficient.
All of this AI crap, robots making bagels, kiosks, influx of migrant men looking for work when there is none at a living wage….
Plenty of studies have shown what happens when there is an excess of unemployed males traversing the country.
I see plenty of fresh YouTube and Reddit PublicFreakout content coming on line.
Maybe even some from those soon to be unemployed hollywood writers. Life will become a joke and write itself.
I
I put kids in siderooms. You think they even interacted? They don’t care. Video communication is not the same as in-person. It’s just not.
In-person is just so much different than talking to someone on zoom. It really is. You can read the audience….pick up on things that you would never be able to do on video. Besides, most people stop listening on videos a minute in. They can’t sit there and focus on someone talking on zoom, esp when at home. So, they leave their screen off, or find ways to just be there, but are not really listening. A lot of people just stare at themselves on the screen the entire meeting analyzing themselves due to low self esteem. It’s not easy.
Sure, if I take a group of AP students and put them on zoom…they will be successful. Why? They are self driven and successful at whatever they do. Very few are capable of this. Now apply this to the workforce.
Some of you have older kids (20s). You trust them to grow and develop on a remote based job platform? How much better could they be doing by learning from others in-person?
Also, teaching doesn’t have to be technology driven. You don’t need all this fancy tech. You need books, a willing student, and a teacher. The students can learn how to read, write, do math, and think critically under these conditions. We make all these excuses for kids these days. It’s a joke. Learning has to be fun…no it f’ing doesn’t. Learning is tough and challenging, it’s not meant to be fun even though it can be fun. Stop making f/king excuses for these kids. You are hurting them.
Can I be the first in line to have AI robot serve me hot coffee at Starbucks. The first spill might be painful but I will retire a multi millionaire. Better than the first person killed by AI taxi driver. This conversation is to stupid but King Lumphead has to bring it
11:06 except it wasn’t a failure for everyone. Those who excelled got into
Good colleges. Life continued.
I agree. Idle hands lead to bad outcomes. You need people to work and leave their house. Their mental well being depends it. Do we really want robots doing everything for us? What is our purpose? Sit around and wait to die? This is dangerous. Going to have billions of people not knowing what to do with themselves.
It’s like my students. They get zero free time. Why? It always leads to bad outcomes. You can’t let them sit there with no purpose because then their minds wander to bad things. Never fails.
Phoenix says:
May 18, 2023 at 11:25 am
All of this AI crap, robots making bagels, kiosks, influx of migrant men looking for work when there is none at a living wage….
Plenty of studies have shown what happens when there is an excess of unemployed males traversing the country.
I see plenty of fresh YouTube and Reddit PublicFreakout content coming on line.
Maybe even some from those soon to be unemployed hollywood writers. Life will become a joke and write itself.
All I am saying, people need a purpose. AI is trying to replace our purpose. Is this a good thing? Everything has a cost. Sure, it makes our lives easier, but at what cost to our mental well being?
Can the avg human being handle not having a purpose? Just doing nothing everyday but consuming food and content?
I am all for using AI to improve our health and other aspects of our life. I just don’t know if we should use it to replace our jobs. Avg human being can’t do complicated jobs, is it in our best interest to take these jobs away from them and leave them with no purpose?
If we do find purpose for these individuals….what will it be?
The zeitgeist of a new generation…..
BUSINESS NEWS
Teen charged with hacking sports betting site bragged ‘fraud is fun,’ feds say
11:32 you can’t equate the misfits in a title 1 school with fully functioning adults.
Zero correlation here.
This is great….. what is the backstory if anything? LOL
Phoenix says:
May 18, 2023 at 1:17 am
Not sure how many of you go to the gym, but if so, don’t use angel dust as your preworkout.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/13jrni7/guy_at_gym_starts_to_go_off_gets_arrested_after/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Anyone who says crime doesn’t pay isn’t doing it right.
chicagofinance says:
May 18, 2023 at 11:40 am
The zeitgeist of a new generation…..
BUSINESS NEWS
Teen charged with hacking sports betting site bragged ‘fraud is fun,’ feds say
“Again, why was education a failure under remote conditions. Don’t tell me high school kids are young. Don’t tell me they aren’t good with technology.”
And this YOUR problem pumps.
The students would have been fine if the teachers were creative with the tech. My autistic son had an absolutely amazing Speech therapist who really made her lessons interactive. Of course, she knew how to use PowerPoint and other programs to make it happen. 90% or Gator Jr’s teachers just sent their whiteboard to Zoom. Heck, most didn’t even know how to mute a participant.
Chi,
That was so funny. I guess you were the only one who opened the page. Taser wouldn’t even touch the guy.
“General Motors in 2017 promised mass production of fully autonomous vehicles in 2019. Lyft said in 2016 that half its rides would be self-driving by 2021. Ford talked up 2021 too, promising full self-driving vehicles deployed broadly.”
Today’s AI!
I watched it Phoenix. Sad actually. That guys life is over.
Lib,
The self driving is there. It’s just not 100% perfect yet, which the regulators want.
A Miami boxer having a bad day at the gym. Perhaps drugs or drugged..
https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/naked-man-attacks-people-at-miami-gym-throughout-midtown-streets/3036409/
Obviously your special grimGPT AI moderator can’t be fucking bothered to give me TWO hat tips that I busted my ass to queue up for you IN LESS THAN ONE WEEK. Pierogi Pussbag.
grim says:
May 18, 2023 at 7:56 am
None of those are AI companies.
How do you even hire supposed AI experts?
When I was touring colleges, UF is actually building a giant knew building for AI research. Would love to see what they actually will be teaching in there.
https://www.eng.ufl.edu/about/new-buildings/malachowsky-hall-for-data-science-information-technology/
It will be completed before my son gets there.
“The self driving is there. It’s just not 100% perfect yet, which the regulators want.”
Research the 90% rule.
I’m sorry. It’s been a while since my PM classes. 90-90 rule Pumps.
How did the field reporter keep his composure? Total pro. Didn’t even crack a smile. I would be laughing my ass off…..
Juice Box says:
May 18, 2023 at 11:53 am
A Miami boxer having a bad day at the gym. Perhaps drugs or drugged..
https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/naked-man-attacks-people-at-miami-gym-throughout-midtown-streets/3036409/
RIP Sam Zell
Having a flashback as a kid 40 years ago. Was it Rocky 4 where kid had AI robot all of his own? Short circuit anyone? Still never appeared in the avg household. There you go Blumpy..
What are you saying driverless cars? What are the cops going to do all day if there is nobody to pull over and ticket?
There are a couple of videos out there of police trying to interact with driverless taxis etc, pretty funny if you google them.
“RIP Sam Zell”
It’s Zell!
I did virtual learning for a full year working for a Charter school in Northridge, CA.
It worked for me. The piece that most people miss in the virtual schooling scenario is the parenting piece. During lockdown we noticed that my daughter’s work habits needed tweaking. Turns out she needed a lot of help in what was her pivotal Junior year in HS. We made corrections and got her the assistance she needed as any good parent would.
She had a great year. Returned to school as a Senior, had an even better year and made the transition to college where she is thriving. Lockdown taught me a lot about parenting in times of pandemic. But it will remain one of my fondest memories where we all shared a lot of quality time together.
The missing piece in the education of the young is that parenting requires work and lots of folks aren’t able to do that. The kid suffers. If you bombed out of school recently, with all of the measures that the schools have in place to make failing difficult, then you are truly in a world of pain in terms of future opprtunities.
It won’t get any easier for the next generation. AI? Offshoring? Greed?
The only saving grace is the boomers are leaving the scene and there is a baby bust meaning that at some point it will be those who are trainable and intelligent who will win.
I have zero sympathy for anyone who doesn’t put the effort forth in parenting or in school.
Gator had to commute into the city today for a town hall.
They gathered everyone together to either sit in an auditorium, or watch a Zoom in a private room. She opted for #2. Smart Gator.
12:03 Grace Dancer indeed!!!
“Grave” dancer….ooops
Lib,
You act like nothing changed, when in fact, everything has. AI is here and it’s only going to grow more powerful. Nothing we can do about it. Life has changed so much since the year 2000 that it is not even recognizable anymore.
Self driving is practically here already. Not even a question of if anymore, but when.
Even on something as simple as housing, everything has changed. Single family homes are dead. They are going extinct rather quickly. They are rarely being built anymore.
The teachers here are missing the big picture. Kids will prefer to learn from a competent AI robot teacher rather than an incompetent human teacher. Every student will have their own AI teacher customized to their needs too.
An AI teacher available 24×7 to teach at any level and answer any question and help where needed? How can a human teacher possibly keep up with that level of attention?
“Single family homes are dead. They are going extinct rather quickly. They are rarely being built anymore.”
Because no one can afford them dolt and we are running out of space in these parts. There are plenty of single-family homes going up where land is cheap.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-single-family-housing-starts-rise-april-march-revised-down-2023-05-17/
“Single-family building permits rose 3.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 855,000 units last month, the highest level since last September. Permits in this largest segment of the housing market rose in all four regions”
Pumps, build that rocket!
Lib,
I stand by my position. Single family is dead, I am just early to the call. I am witnessing it with my own eyes. Florida is all apartments and condos. When I was young (90s), it was all single family houses being built.
Are there outliner areas where single family is still being built? Sure, but this is not becoming the norm again in most locations.
12:18 no unions….no pensions….
Based on demographics, housing should roll this decade. You should prepare to sell end of decade before a lot of boomers start dying and start increasing the supply. I don’t see how real estate can go up in the 2030s with a wave of boomers dumping supply. Get in front of the line of lemmings, don’t be stupid. Get out by 2030. Sell and rent.
Naw Pumps. We’re locked into cheap interest in a safe area, pool, Mountain Views, at a reasonable monthly. Like a lot of homeowners we are staying out. Wanna buy that boomer home with the 70’s era kitchen and bathroom from the dark ages? Go ahead.
“Staying Put”
Ex,
We will see what happens, but I think it’s a good move to sell before boomers impact the supply/demand dynamic. Remember, they were able to drive it up by overwhelming supply, and they can drive it down by overwhelming supply on the way down.
It’ll vary but hot markets – places you’ve described as metro areas will thrive.
There just isn’t enough supply. Boomers will leave behind lots of cool toys. Think vintage gas guzzler muscle cars LOL
I can def get on board with that. I guess best move is to analyze the concentration of boomer housing in locations. If it’s really high, sell before it’s too late.
Lib: And the jobs are going there too.
30 year mtg rate jumps to 6.57, highest in 2 months.
The Disappearing White-Collar Job
A once-in-a-generation convergence of technology and pressure to operate more efficiently has corporations saying many lost jobs may never return
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-disappearing-white-collar-job-af0bd925?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1
“We may be at the peak of the need for knowledge workers,” said Atif Rafiq, a former chief digital officer at McDonald’s and Volvo. “We just need fewer people to do the same thing.”
Long after robots began taking manufacturing jobs, artificial intelligence is now coming for the higher-ups—accountants, software programmers, human-resources specialists and lawyers—and converging with unyielding pressure on companies to operate more efficiently.
Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees after the Facebook parent’s latest round of layoffs that many jobs aren’t coming back because new technologies will allow the company to operate more efficiently. International Business Machines CEO Arvind Krishna recently said the company could pause some hiring to see what kind of back-office work can be done with AI. Leaders in many industries say they expect the new technology will augment some existing roles, changing what people do on the job. AI could allow employees to better contribute to their companies by doing more meaningful work, said Mr. Rafiq, author of a new book on management.
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” – Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), maker of big business mainframe computers, arguing against the PC in 1977.
“We will never make a 32 bit operating system.” – Bill Gates (Now he is making 64 bit!)
“Lee DeForest has said in many newspapers and over his signature that it would be possible to transmit the human voice across the Atlantic before many years. Based on these absurd and deliberately misleading statements, the misguided public . has been persuaded to purchase stock in his company .” – a U.S. District Attorney, prosecuting American inventor Lee DeForest for selling stock fraudulently through the mail for his Radio Telephone Company in 1913.
“There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States.” – T. Craven, FCC Commissioner, in 1961 (the first commercial communications satellite went into service in 1965).
“To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth – all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances.” – Lee DeForest, American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum tube, in 1926
“A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” New York Times, 1936.
“Flight by machines heavier than air is unpractical (sic) and insignificant, if not utterly impossible.” – Simon Newcomb; The Wright Brothers flew at Kittyhawk 18 months later.
“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” – Lord Kelvin, British mathematician and physicist, president of the British Royal Society, 1895.
“There will never be a bigger plane built.” – A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that holds ten people
“Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years.” — Alex Lewyt, president of vacuum cleaner company Lewyt Corp., in the New York Times in 1955.
Lib,
This is the way. Open your mind.
Self-driving is inevitable.
Society will look 100% different in 20 years. The change is coming that fast.
Just take me back to the 90s…simple life was the good life.
Crap…… annuity wholesaler is hanging out serious bait….
Won’t do it. I don’t want to take the calls……not my baliwyck anyway….
Lunch with NY Mets World Series Champion Ron Darling
Location Maggiano’s Bridgewater
Chi, that’s why he is not on the broadcast?
lunch in June……
Chifi,
I can look out the window from my office and see that Maggianos. How about you schedule come visit me for lunch that day and you can just happen to have a ball with you when he leaves for the parking lot?
But I’d be sad as a baseball guy to be paid to get people to sit through a meeting about annuities, or reverse mortgages, or crypto, or crap like that. If they have to dangle a celebrity along with a free lunch to get people to attend, is that a really bad sign about the product?
No One,
Ron is probably a salesguy for the wholesaler.
Listen here:
https://youtu.be/jqUx-WDL-Pc
As per WSJ, Fed officials say June rate decision will be a close call. One official hinted she would be in favor of an increase barring any additional negative economic news.
3b,
Yet why should it be? Inflation is 2.5 times their goal. There is no evidence that it is subsiding quick enough even at current levels. I don’t doubt they will pause. They will give market what it wants even though it won’t go down even in the face of hikes.
Bystander: I agree. I was food shopping recently, Shoprite( it’s closer), and I don’t see any real indications of prices dropping. They are no where near their target, so I don’t see the justification to pause. If they pause then the market will get on their silly pivot is next nonsense.
If we get a recession around election time look for the Democrats to lose the White House.
Cohen
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The young entrepreneur Charlie Javice has been indicted on charges of defrauding JPMorgan Chase & Co, the largest U.S. bank, into buying her now-shuttered college financial aid startup Frank.
A four-count grand jury indictment made public on Thursday in Manhattan federal court charges Javice with securities fraud, wire fraud, bank fraud and conspiracy. It also seeks the forfeiture of millions of dollars from her accounts.
Grand opening of the Jefferson in Hackensack today, 2 Kinderkamack Rd. Enjoy beautiful resort like like living from only 2100, to 4,200. Spectacular views of Rt4 and the NJ Transit train tracks, just minutes from all that Bergen Co has to offer.
The developer recently opened one in Franklin Lakes, called The Franklin. Luxury rentals in Franklin Lakes, who knew!
3B – Lots more coming to Franklin Lakes too. All the folks at what is left of Express Scripts are working from home since Cigna bought it and got the campus and sold it to Hekemian Group the developer.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/bergen/franklin-lakes/2023/01/31/plan-to-build-585-multi-family-units-in-franklin-lakes-to-be-presented/69852424007/
Juice: I did not know that, rentals in FL, I wonder how the locals feel about that? Paramus just approved the other day, the 600 unit development in GS Plaza. That will be a traffic nightmare!
Cracks beginning to appear.
The Census Bureau data, released Wednesday, shows 38.5 percent of adults – or 89.1million people – found it difficult to pay their bills between April 26 and May 8
It is up from a year ago, when 34.4 percent of adults reported budget crunches
3b – They will knock down every old campus around the state. Just look at Wayne. The old Toys R Us headquarters will be knocked down to build 1.360 units apartments/condos etc.
Juice: That is a massive development. Suburbs will be very different from what they were.
On the subject of rates; stop raising it.
Think of it like this; the more they keep raising, the more they will have to lower it to fix whatever they break in the economy. It’s insanity to keep raising at this point.
It’s below 4%. They report 3.29%. More hikes?! Why?!
https://truflation.com/
Single family is dead. Why do you think these properties are all going to a million…that land is valuable in north jersey. I don’t see how you lose buying and holding north jersey land as it becomes NYC. Simply impossible to lose. Population density is insane.
3b says:
May 18, 2023 at 6:14 pm
Juice: That is a massive development. Suburbs will be very different from what they were.
If you can manage to buy out blocks of housing in say Clifton. That will be gold to some developer that will turn it into a high rise rental.
Lib, I think you are getting confused between RPA Robotic Process Automation and AI.
I went to a Google FinTech event hosted by Bob Pisani about 5 years ago. I said then that AI has not really changed in the last 50-70 years. What has changed is processing speed and storage costs. We can now train the models to get meaningful results. Back in the 90s when I was learning AI in college, the level of understanding of the model was a smart toddler, today its a precocious Tween. Grim disagreed with that, I think it still holds.
Here is a different way of looking at this. Bob hyped that room that AI would be self learning and improve stock picking and pricing. That’s not really what its doing. In Money Laundering it can pick out those patterns from massive data sets. It can work out the difference between a bad actor and a genuine mistake in a firm. It can take an English to French and a French to Bengali translator and translate English to Bengali.
The new areas it is opening up are fascinating.
Here is how people should be framing this discussion. Back in the 90s when I was starting out Microsoft Office was really taking off. Think of the impact that had on Bob Pisanis world. Excel brought book-keeping and bulk calculations to the masses. Word killed the greenbar printout of the SEC reports and Outlook killed off the person getting on a flight to DC to deliver said greenbar reports.
Killed off as in removed the need for. Not a Joe Pesci and Ray Liotta showing up at a gate in LaGuardia to put a hit on the Bob from Accounting.
Lets see what I can do with AI to turn that into a movie script and some images.
Interesting take Fabs. I’m still not sold on us turning into the characters in Wall-E in our lifetime. Yes, the possibilities are great. But so much noise about something that is still awfully far away. It sure seems like every “disruptor” is so hyped for nothing more than to improve the chances of billions of dollars of venture capital to be wasted on it.
Lib,
Again, life is being disrupted right before your eyes. We all mock the metaverse, but make no mistake about it; it is the future. Apple has entered the VR augmented conversation. That’s all I need to know for where we R going. Moving to a digital world quickly.
It’s like investing in DNA as a disruptor. You have to be able to open your mind and try to put together a little piece of the future.
Fed does not look at Truflation dingus. CPI was 4.9 in April. Make stuff up to suit your slanted view. Another hike is needed then a pause perhaps. Demand is too crazy
Laugh at crypto, or understand ETH will run that digital world through contracts, currency, and platform.
Scene: La Guardia Airport, arrivals terminal.
Characters:
Joe Pesci as Harry
Ray Liotta as Tommy
John Turturro as Wall St Executive
Action:
Harry and Tommy are standing in the arrivals terminal, waiting for the Wall St Executive to arrive. Harry is wearing a black leather jacket and sunglasses, and Tommy is wearing a blue suit and tie. They both look nervous.
The Wall St Executive finally arrives, and he is carrying a briefcase. Harry and Tommy approach him.
Harry: Excuse me, sir. Are you Mr. Smith?
Wall St Executive: Yes, I am.
Harry: We’re here to collect a debt.
Wall St Executive: What debt?
Tommy: The debt you owe to our boss.
Wall St Executive: I don’t know what you’re talking about.
Harry: We know you have a greenbar print out that belongs to our boss.
Wall St Executive: I don’t have anything like that.
Harry: We’re going to ask you one more time. Where is the greenbar print out?
Wall St Executive: I don’t have it!
Harry grabs the Wall St Executive’s briefcase and opens it. He takes out the greenbar print out and shows it to Tommy.
Harry: See? I told you he had it.
Tommy: Give it to us.
Wall St Executive: No!
Tommy grabs the Wall St Executive by the arm and pulls him towards him.
Tommy: Give it to us now, or I’ll hurt you.
Wall St Executive: Okay, okay! I’ll give it to you.
The Wall St Executive hands the greenbar print out to Tommy. Tommy takes it and puts it in his pocket.
Tommy: Thank you.
Harry and Tommy turn and walk away, leaving the Wall St Executive standing there.
As Harry and Tommy walk away, the Wall St Executive watches them go. He is relieved that he was able to get the greenbar print out back, but he is also scared. He knows that Harry and Tommy are dangerous men, and he is worried about what they might do to him if he ever crosses them again.
Harry and Tommy walk out of the arrivals terminal and into the parking lot. They get into their car and drive away. As they drive, Harry turns to Tommy.
Harry: That was easy.
Tommy: Yeah, too easy.
Harry: What do you mean?
Tommy: I don’t know. Something just doesn’t feel right about this.
Harry: What are you talking about?
Tommy: I don’t know. I just have a bad feeling about it.
Harry shakes his head.
Harry: You’re just being paranoid.
Tommy: I hope you’re right.
Harry and Tommy continue driving, but neither of them can shake the feeling that something is wrong.
A few hours later, Harry and Tommy are back at their boss’s office. They give him the greenbar print out, and he is pleased.
Boss: Good work.
Harry: Thanks.
Boss: Now, I want you to find out who this guy is and what he’s up to.
Harry: Sure thing.
Harry and Tommy leave the office and head back to their car. As they walk, Harry turns to Tommy.
Harry: You still think something’s wrong?
Tommy: Yeah, I do.
Harry: Well, we’ll find out soon enough.
Harry and Tommy get into their car and drive away. They are determined to find out what the Wall St Executive is up to, and they are not going to stop until they know the truth.
Ex Ex,
A dead man could beat Donald Trump in the presidential election, his negatives are so high. If there are enough dumb Republicans, that’s who they will nominate.
Image generation is off the hook. I’m doing a course at the moment and I needed some designs and images. Instead of wading though Shutter Stock and the like, I kept tuning the prompt in Bearly.ai and in minutes had what I needed.
Here is a fun thread. Images based on three word prompts.
https://twitter.com/icreatelife/status/1659240089476558848
Break what in the economy? The bank crisis that never came? The strong labor market, home prices go going up, stock market staying high in 33-34k range, development everywhere? Inflation is 4.9%. That is the backbreaker for regular folks. Need to break it. You only care about selfish stock plays.
Stock analysis, two prompts and I’m out. We should call ARK, “Da Bears!”
PROMPT: “Based on the latest financial results of ARK Innovation ETF, provide some technical analysis of the stock and the underlying holdings.”
Sure. Here is some technical analysis of ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) based on its latest financial results and the underlying holdings:
ARKK is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is a bearish sign.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently below 50, which is also a bearish sign.
The MACD indicator is currently crossing below its signal line, which is another bearish sign.
The stock is currently trading in a downtrend, and it is possible that it could continue to decline in the coming weeks.
However, there are some positive signs for ARKK. The stock is still trading above its 200-day moving average, which could provide some support. The RSI is also not too oversold, which could mean that the stock is due for a bounce.
Overall, the technical analysis of ARKK is mixed. There are some bearish signs, but there are also some positive signs. It is important to consider all of these factors before making a decision about whether to invest in ARKK.
Here are some of the underlying holdings of ARKK:
Tesla (TSLA)
Coinbase (COIN)
Roku (ROKU)
Square (SQ)
Zillow (Z)
23andMe (ME)
Spotify (SPOT)
Teladoc (TDOC)
Unity Software (U)
Affirm (AFRM)
These companies are all involved in innovative technologies, such as electric vehicles, cryptocurrency, streaming media, payments, real estate, gene sequencing, music streaming, telemedicine, and gaming. However, they are also all relatively new companies with limited track records. This means that they are more likely to experience volatility than more established companies.
Investors who are considering investing in ARKK should carefully consider the risks involved. The ETF is a high-risk investment, and it is possible that it could lose a significant amount of value in the short term. However, it is also possible that the ETF could generate significant returns in the long term if the underlying companies continue to grow and innovate.
Here are some additional factors that could affect the technical performance of ARKK in the coming weeks:
The overall market environment
The performance of the underlying companies in the ETF
The actions of Cathie Wood, the ETF’s manager
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions
The direction of interest rates
The level of inflation
The state of the global economy
The performance of other asset classes, such as bonds and stocks
Investors should carefully consider all of these factors before making a decision about whether to invest in ARKK.
PROMPT: “Provide technical analysis of the underlying holdings”
Sure. Here is some technical analysis of the underlying holdings of ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK):
Tesla (TSLA) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is a bearish sign. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently below 50, which is also a bearish sign. The MACD indicator is currently crossing below its signal line, which is another bearish sign. The stock is currently trading in a downtrend, and it is possible that it could continue to decline in the coming weeks. However, there are some positive signs for TSLA. The stock is still trading above its 200-day moving average, which could provide some support. The RSI is also not too oversold, which could mean that the stock is due for a bounce. Overall, the technical analysis of TSLA is mixed. There are some bearish signs, but there are also some positive signs. It is important to consider all of these factors before making a decision about whether to invest in TSLA.
Coinbase (COIN) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is a bearish sign. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently below 50, which is also a bearish sign. The MACD indicator is currently crossing below its signal line, which is another bearish sign. The stock is currently trading in a downtrend, and it is possible that it could continue to decline in the coming weeks. However, there are some positive signs for COIN. The stock is still trading above its 200-day moving average, which could provide some support. The RSI is also not too oversold, which could mean that the stock is due for a bounce. Overall, the technical analysis of COIN is mixed. There are some bearish signs, but there are also some positive signs. It is important to consider all of these factors before making a decision about whether to invest in COIN.
Roku (ROKU) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is a bearish sign. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently below 50, which is also a bearish sign. The MACD indicator is currently crossing below its signal line, which is another bearish sign. The stock is currently trading in a downtrend, and it is possible that it could continue to decline in the coming weeks. However, there are some positive signs for ROKU. The stock is still trading above its 200-day moving average, which could provide some support. The RSI is also not too oversold, which could mean that the stock is due for a bounce. Overall, the technical analysis of ROKU is mixed. There are some bearish signs, but there are also some positive signs. It is important to consider all of these factors before making a decision about whether to invest in ROKU.
Square (SQ) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is a bearish sign. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently below 50, which is also a bearish sign. The MACD indicator is currently crossing below its signal line, which is another bearish sign. The stock is currently trading in a downtrend, and it is possible that it could continue to decline in the coming weeks. However, there are some positive signs for SQ. The stock is still trading above its 200-day moving average, which could provide some support. The RSI is also not too oversold, which could mean that the stock is due for a bounce. Overall, the technical analysis of SQ is mixed. There are some bearish signs, but there are also some positive signs. It is important to consider all of these factors before making a decision about whether to invest in SQ.
Zillow (Z) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is a bearish sign. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently below 50, which is also a bearish sign. The MACD indicator is currently crossing below its signal line, which is another bearish sign. The stock is currently trading in a downtrend, and it is possible that it could continue to decline in the coming weeks. However, there are some positive signs for Z. The stock is still trading above its 200-day moving average, which could provide some support. The RSI is also not too oversold, which could mean that the stock is due for a bounce. Overall, the technical analysis of Z is mixed. There are some bearish signs, but there are also some positive signs. It is important to consider all of these factors before making a decision about whether to invest in Z.
23andMe (ME) is currently trading below its
I’ve said for years on this blog, best way of playing tech in general is Semis.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the first “species” that is truly smarter than humans.
For millions of years, humans have been the smartest species on Earth.
Now, AI is not only smarter than us but it’s also able to learn much quicker.
This is why it feels like AI has come so far over the last year.
It’s only going to accelerate from here.
Let’s face it…AI stocks are a bubble stuck inside a massive bear market rally. This thing just keeps going.
Aka dollar cost avg for now on and you will win no matter what.
BRT,
Your time is coming. I’m a firm believer in Karma. You deserve much better, but life doesn’t always give it. Have my respect with investing and life philosophy based on discipline.
Heckuva hockey game going tonight!