From CNN:
Mortgage rates tick down for the second week in a row
Mortgage rates ticked down this week for the second week in a row, as investors absorbed the Federal Reserve’s expected pause on raising the federal funds rate after 10 consecutive rate hikes.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.69% in the week ending June 15, down from 6.71% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 5.78%.
Mortgage rates have remained over 5% for all but one week during the past year and even went as high as 7.08%, last reached in November.
“Mortgage rates decreased slightly this week in anticipation of the pause in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “As inflation continues to decelerate, economic growth is slowing and the tightening cycle of monetary policy is reaching its apex, which means mortgage rates are expected to decrease later this year and into next.”
The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
From Business Insider:
The housing market is so tight because 90% of homeowners locked in lower mortgage rates before last year’s surge
The housing market’s tight inventory doesn’t look like it will get much better soon, according to a Wednesday Redfin report.
That’s because 91.8% of US homeowners who currently have a mortgage are paying for it at an interest rate below 6%, locking in cheap financing before rates spiked around the middle of last year.
The number of owners with a mortgage rate below 6% is just below the record high of 92.9% reached in the middle of 2022.
With the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage clocking in at 6.71% this week — sticking close to the highest level in two decades — the majority of American homeowners are unwilling to wade into the market and face financing a new home purchase at a higher rate.
In fact, 82.4% of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 5% and 62% have a rate below 4%, per Redfin. Notably, 23.5% of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 3%, almost the highest proportion with a rate that low on record.
Wow!
“As inflation continues to decelerate, economic growth is slowing and the tightening cycle of monetary policy is reaching its apex, which means mortgage rates are expected to decrease later this year and into next.”
Add to it the article above with no inventory and that 650K dump just became a 675K dump? Refuse to pay? Can’t afford it? Not what you want? May I suggest you look around the Honey Grove, PA area for an affordable house.
Fast: Everything is great, keep going!! Meanwhile, Wall Street is laying off, but just an outlier. Fed will cut late in the year or early next year, stock market will explode, it’s all good!! Party on!!
Been trying to convince my wife for months to put it back in. She continues to double down on waiting for the big bust. Girl all of a sudden has balls. I am telling her to take the f’ing win. Lock her up. No matter what happens, you won.
She just doesn’t get it. So f’ing conservative…aka bearish bias.
What win? The SPX is higher today than when you guys went all cash.
My inner 12 year old self keeps laughing at that first sentence.
lol
“Been trying to convince my wife for months to put it back in. She continues to double down on waiting for the big bust. Girl all of a sudden has balls.”
I saw that in a movie once, a guy reaches down there and find a set of nuts where none should exist.
Yikes.
Some advise.
When you get up in the morning, check to see if you have yours. She may have taken them. If so, it’s up to you now to let her put it into you. See if she will. Also some telltale signs will be vials of Testostrone, syringes, or possibly Testosterone gel.
Best of luck, sir. And please, watch this short video, it may help immensely.
https://youtu.be/KAmpDZeeoGw
re: 23.5% of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 3%”
That would be the pandemic buyers?
Anecdotal going to a wedding today. Couple lives in an Apt in Jersey City, want to buy out near the Summit area I gather.
Very little registry stuff.. They want money for a house….”New Home Fund” on the Knot website. I think it’s crass to do that. Nobody but family would give them large amounts of money. Asking wedding guests to donate to a new home fund? I always cover the cost of the reception. No more no less.
US CRE assets have grown to $6.0 trillion (23.0% of GDP) at the end of 2022. Life insurance companies hold 12% of that.
The US life insurance sector holds about $900 billion, or 17% of their total cash and invested assets, in CRE, mostly in commercial mortgage loans (CMLs) and CMBS.
Over one-fifth of the industry’s total CRE exposure is to the office sub-sector, while another 16% is to retail.
Source: Moody’s
Not in spx.
Vwuax- was 95% in. Exited at 175 if I remember correctly.
Vscix- 5% exited at 1.07
I was telling her to get back in at 100-110 range on the growth fund…
BRT says:
June 17, 2023 at 9:44 am
Been trying to convince my wife for months to put it back in. She continues to double down on waiting for the big bust. Girl all of a sudden has balls. I am telling her to take the f’ing win. Lock her up. No matter what happens, you won.
She just doesn’t get it. So f’ing conservative…aka bearish bias.
What win? The SPX is higher today than when you guys went all cash.
My bro-in-law’s friend. Give him a listen if a Jet’s fan.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jets-country-podcast/id1692531261
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, filed an application on Thursday for an exchange-traded fund backed by bitcoin in the U.S.
This is notable for a couple of reasons. First, there are currently no such products in the U.S. The SEC approved several bitcoin BTCUSD, 0.38% futures-based ETFs in the past, but it has yet to greenlight anything that is backed by bitcoin.
Secondly, BlackRock BLK, -1.18% ‘s filing also represents a drastic shift in the firm’s attitude towards crypto since 2018, when Larry Fink, the chairman and chief executive at the firm, told Bloomberg that he hadn’t heard from any clients who were seeking out crypto exposure.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/blackrocks-larry-fink-once-said-his-clients-had-zero-interest-in-crypto-heres-how-things-have-changed-since-2018-8ac13a7a?lin
Couple lives in an Apt in Jersey City, want to buy out near the Summit area I gather.
Very little registry stuff.. They want money for a house….”New Home Fund” on the Knot website.
Where to begin. lol. I would never… but I guess the young muppets are a bit blatant, p1ssed at the boomers or all of the above. They want to buy neat Summit? LOL. Hilarious. Buy what? Do they have $140,000 to put down on a shit box? If they find one? And aren’t outbid by the 26 other bids?
Fast: If you listen to some of the chatter out there now, there will be no hard or soft landing, as there won’t be a recession, or it’s already over. Full speed ahead!!
3b,
That Joe O’Biden is amazing! He’s a lock for reelection!
Best president since FDR!
We’re all becoming Detroit:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/san-francisco-is-in-trouble-battered-by-remote-work-and-the-homeless-crisis-160203782.html
Eddie – Ferragamo shoes and Penguin suit tonight for me. They got money for an fancy enough wedding they better have money for a down payment and a 7% mortgage.
Vwuax- was 95% in. Exited at 175 if I remember correctly.
Vscix- 5% exited at 1.07
I was telling her to get back in at 100-110 range on the growth fund…
You don’t remember correctly
Juice, my new home fund was a wedding in my local garden and backyard. Everything total cost me $8k. Meanwhile, our friends were blowing $50k each and still wondering why they are stuck in a run down 2 BR house in Metuchen.
Take the deal boys, take the deal. It’s the deal of the century!
Mahwah firefighters were among the mutual aid agency on this side of the state line who responded to the March 2021 blaze at the Evergreen Home for Adults in nearby Spring Valley, which killed resident Oliver Hueston and Fire Lt. Jared Lloyd, 35.
Rabbis Nathaniel and Aaron Sommer were originally charged with manslaughter, criminally negligent homicide and reckless endangerment in connection with the fire.
However, Hudson Valley News 12’s Tara Rosenblum reports that the office of Rockland County District Attorney Thomas E. Walsh II offered both men the opportunity to plead guilty to misdemeanor charges instead.
Just back from wedding. Very nice setup, grooms family is English and were rolling their own cigarettes, the kind of people I like. I would say that their new home fund won’t be filled. Did my part I think open bar and I did not drink just the toast champagne, did however spend most of the night on the dance floor… 10 piece band very very good too.
Weddings are funny had a few serious conversations, people open up a these things and I was not the one asking questions either.
Mikey likey. High fees (this is retail and they have a lower fee institution option for 401k), but love the way it’s setup and what they own. F’ing winner here.
https://www.baronfunds.com/product-detail/Baron-Partners-Fund-bptrx
Happy Fathers day to all.
Happy Fathers day to all the Dads out there. Especially Phoenix who has gone through hell with his ex screwing up his life.
Happy Father’s Day to all despite some of you being real ‘mothers’. ;)
Juice,
What was the estimated price tag for that affair?
Happy Fathers Day to all the Dads.
“Boomer sent all of the jobs overseas. Boomer put kiosks to eliminate jobs. Boomer…”
LOL, Boomer can’t even operate their smart phone, assuming they have one and aren’t on Consumer Cellular.
“There’s nothing systemically wrong with cops. Come on now.”
Unless I’m missing the implied /s, interesting thought….
HFD to all on here.
“Left what’s your counter trend play?”
Got nothing for you brother.
Plan your trade, trade your plan…Twelvish months ago I had goalposts at 3600/3800 and 4400 looking to each as decision points expecting chop. I had embedded at the time about 15% return insured for the year, was happy with that and waiting. We’re at the top end now, return is realized (ie, no more left) but too early for clarity of direction.
Have added opportunistically what are intended to be longer term holds, especially on dips for fundamentally decent companies…posted some here. BAC treating me well off the dip on the regionals a few months ago, think I posted AAP, DG, TSN, and RSP here. One or two are less fundamentally sound than others but don’t forget I try to write option premium around them (harder on the above, no depth) or outright using LEAPS on occasion so the risk/return profile can skew in my favor for weaker situations relative to just straight long the stock. Don’t think I’m short anything now, and my option write opportunities have dried up with the draining of volatility. May likely go long some VIX, it’s stupid cheap, but that is a much tougher needle to thread as it can behave very differently from other futes/options. Far from a perfect hedge. So holding pattern. I’m comfortable trading the next 200 SPX points for certainty. Seems like a fair trade.
So I’ll wait a little…worse case your banking 5% risk free. Fed words were words but the conviction seemed different this time and summer is traditionally light. No need to lean in right now…some companies want to give me a yard sale, especially after an unwarranted earnings reaction, I’ll nibble. And, yes, right now I would suggest it is all about individual stocks and not the indices given the distortion of the Top 10 companies in each.
Happy Father’s Day :
https://youtu.be/rnDxdmqwp7Q
“Shouldn’t Call it a Skip.
This week’s May CPI, PPI, and import prices inflation reports, along with a second weekly initial claims report 10% above the March-May level (262,000), and a slowdown in the 3-month annualized May retail sales control series (ex-autos, gas and building materials) pace deflated with CPI core goods less autos to 0.67% from 3.87% for 1Q23, taken together suggest that the June FOMC hawkish ‘shouldn’t call it a skip’ will evolve into the end of the rate hike cycle. When the Fed meets in July all items CPI is likely to be 3.2%, the weakness in labor income evident in the May employment report will finally catch up to headline nonfarm payrolls, and there will be a preponderance of evidence that Q2 consumer spending slowed to stall speed. With that backdrop we expect the Committee to remain on hold and the most aggressive rate cycle since the early ‘80s will be at an end…
The most concerning reaction to the FOMC meeting was a deepening of the 2s10s nominal Treasury curve inversion. Even with the rally in Treasuries Thursday and selloff Friday morning, the curve inversion deepened. With the 2s10s curve at -96bp, approaching the March low driven by a 104bp inversion of 2s10s real rates (TIPS) curve, underscores the market implied view that monetary policy is more restrictive than any point in decades.”
Good source on analysis.
https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/p/shouldnt-call-it-a-skip?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2