Pending sales tracking far below previous years

From Redfin:

Housing Market Update: There Are Nearly 40% Fewer Homes For Sale Than Pre-Pandemic

The total number of U.S. homes for sale dropped 6% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending June 11, the biggest decline in 13 months. New listings dropped 23%, continuing a 10-month streak of double-digit declines. Those add to the deepening post-pandemic inventory shortage; there are 39% fewer homes for sale now than there were five years ago, in June 2018. 

The inventory crunch is partly due to a homebuilding slump that’s lasted for over a decade and partly to mortgage rates falling to record-low levels during the pandemic, then shooting up. Mortgage rates have more than doubled since 2021, landing at close to 7% this week. The record-low mortgage rates of 2020 and 2021 drove a homebuying boom, depleting inventory. When rates started going up in the beginning of 2022, many would-be sellers backed off, failing to fill the inventory hole. Elevated rates discourage homeowners who would prefer to hold onto a comparatively low rate from selling. 

Pending home sales are down 17% year over year, the biggest decline in over four months, but it isn’t all due to a lack of demand. People are still showing interest in buying. Mortgage-purchase applications rose 8% over the last week, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of requests for tours and other services from Redfin agents–is up over the last two weeks and near its highest level in a year.  That means there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand, and many buyers will be ready to pounce when more homes hit the market. Demand outpacing supply is preventing home prices from falling drastically: The median sale price is down just 1.1%, the smallest annual decline in three months. 

This week’s economic news indicates that mortgage rates are unlikely to decline in the next few months, which may mean new listings stay low for the time being and the inventory shortage deepens. The latest inflation report shows that price increases have continued to cool, and the Fed announced that it will pause interest-rate hikes this month after nearly a year of increases but may hike a couple more times this year. 

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

63 Responses to Pending sales tracking far below previous years

  1. Fast Eddie says:


  2. Fast Eddie says:

    …there are 39% fewer homes for sale now than there were five years ago, in June 2018.

    It’s not going to change. Supply is going to be restrained for years. Sell and move out to Tunkhannock, PA.

  3. leftwing says:

    Lol, equal opportunity racial idiocy.

    Starbucks getting tapped both ways for corporate cowardice

    Starbucks ordered to pay $25 million to ex-manager who claimed she was fired because she was white

  4. Libturd says:


    I too haven’t had a point or a claim in decades. Living in these parts and likely the stolen cars, are the cause of the increase. Though I over insure a bit on the medical injury line since my brother is an ambulance chaser and he frequently seeks and obtains double what the minimum is.

    With a new high-end CX-90 in the pipeline and my older son moving off to college in Florida with our 2012 CX-9 with 140K in mileage, I will definitely be requoting. I’ll share with you all what I find. This will occur in late July. I am going to do my home as well.

    I’ve done this about seven times now. There is no loyalty in the insurance world. As a matter of fact, you are typically penalized for staying with the same outfit.

  5. 3b says:

    Lib: I am curious to see what kind of quotes you get. I will be shopping around too. I got the email from GEICO as well. I used to switch every few years, savings were substantial enough to make it worth while. I kind of forgot about it these last few years.

  6. grim says:

    Still NJM, every time I go out and try to get a quote, I’m reminded what a f*cking disaster this industry is.

  7. trick says:

    We went from USAA to NJM many years ago, auto was cheaper but the biggest price difference was home owners.

  8. Libturd says:

    Not everyone can get into NJM I thought.

  9. trick says:

    I got it through work, but I think they opened it up to all nj residence

  10. Phoenix says:

    I use Amica. Haven’t had any problems with them.

  11. Jim says:

    Thanks for reply, let us know how you do on your quest for more reasonable insurance.

    I will start with NJM , but fortunately I have almost a full year before I need to switch. 26% is a little ridiculous, and Buffet doesn’t even pay out dividends , but I guess he wants to stay in the top 10% of wealthiest Americans.

  12. Phoenix says:

    The French would be out in the streets burning cars over a 26 percent interest rate.

    Americans won’t put down a plate of food to fight for what they believe in.

  13. Phoenix says:

    Tucker’s comparison of Biden to a dictator was good for a laugh, if not biased.

    The other side isn’t any better.

  14. Juice Box says:

    re: car insurance increases.

    The excuse being used now by the insurance companies is they need to increase reserves for storm-related auto claims due to climate change.

    My brother just switched to nj cure. Rate was significantly lower. Apparently they use primarily your driving record. They also reward referrals. I have not tried them.

    Here is the full list of car insurance companies.

  15. Juice Box says:

    re: “f*cking disaster this industry is.”

    Geico alone is going to take in about 3 Billion in additional premiums for the year in the USA. Maybe more, it was reported at the Berkshire annual meeting Geico is going through a rocky patch they reported a $1.9 billion underwriting loss for 2022.

    Same for all the big insurance players underwriting losses. State Farm had $13.2 billion in underwriting losses for Auto in 2022. The whole industry says inflation is the cause etc.

    No where to hide from inflation.

  16. Juice Box says:

    BTW – Speaking of Geico.

    Direct sales model. I would think their average customer is perhaps someone who may get into more accidents. Guess how they figure that out when they quote you? The use a credit-based insurance score. Lower credit = you are poor and more likely to have a claim, yes you can have insurance you just pay more.

    I would only want to be in an insurance pool with less young people and well people with higher credit scores.

  17. Phoenix says:

    When greedy BOomer charges more for his house, you have to pay more for the insurance on the mortgage value.

    Boomer wants, boomer gets.

  18. Libturd says:


    What you say about credit score might be true, but I sport an 823 and have never had a claim in my life. Only two 2-point speeding tickets in my life (both in upstate NY) and one for vehicular trespassing. Never a claim. Gator had one speeding ticket which she got in a parking lot.

    Geico was by far the cheapest for me. I think I had it down to $800 a year for our two old cars until Jr. came of age.

  19. 1987 Condo says:

    Going on vacation with spouse via EWR. What is best way for door to door car service to and from?

    Uber, Uber reserved, limo service?

    International return, last year I figured I would just get an Uber, but the surge pricing approached $200 and waits were long and uber’s were cancelling…etc.

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Insurance is a scam industry used to provide stability in our society by taking from the responsible individuals to pay for the total f/k ups.

    Greedflation is a biatch.

    Juice Box says:
    June 16, 2023 at 9:40 am
    re: “f*cking disaster this industry is.”

    Geico alone is going to take in about 3 Billion in additional premiums for the year in the USA. Maybe more, it was reported at the Berkshire annual meeting Geico is going through a rocky patch they reported a $1.9 billion underwriting loss for 2022.

    Same for all the big insurance players underwriting losses. State Farm had $13.2 billion in underwriting losses for Auto in 2022. The whole industry says inflation is the cause etc.

    No where to hide from inflation.

  21. Libturd says:

    Uber reserved is bullshit. They will cancel on you the moment your plane is late and sometimes if they get a better fare. If you need an absolute ride, a car service is the way to go. If you live in my parts, the best one is Claridge Car Service- Local and dependable (973) 746-2600. He’s a one man operation, but extremely professional. Drives a large SUV.

  22. 1987 Condo says:

    Thanks Lib!

  23. ExEx says:

    9:24 He’s there for attention. He grasped onto a headline that FOX ran and cost a staffer their job. It’s pure trash.

  24. BRT says:

    left, Starbucks got what they deserved on that one. They sacrificed their employee to score points with a hostile delusional media. That incident was such a joke. You wanna hold a meeting, the least you can do is buy a coffee.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    If you need an absolute ride, a car service is the way to go.

    Yep. Same here… small, family-owned, dependable, will wait in a hurricane at 3:00 AM if required. I just reserved yesterday for a future trip.

  26. Phoenix says:

    NJ is filled with cucks & corn holers. I should know.

  27. grim says:

    Don’t use uber or lyft for an airport run unless you have the luxury of time, and can feel out local availability in real-time.

    Early morning airport run? That’s really risky. I’ve done it a few times, and have had cancels, and very late drivers. Way too stressful if you are going on vacation.

    Car service, for sure.

  28. grim says:

    In that “very late” scenario, we literally loaded up the car and was going to drive to JFK for fear of missing the flight, when the driver pulled up.

  29. ExEx says:

    My wife is on Only Fans. She only charges 5 dollars. Email me for the link.

  30. Boomer Remover says:

    Sonofa, I knew it!

  31. Libturd says:


    Uber -> Airport = Ogeda

    Ridesharing home isn’t usually an issue because you are not in a rush and those crappy yellow cabs are there for backup if needed.

  32. Libturd says:

    JFK is only $20 a day for the airtrain serviced long-term lot if you prebook and it will come off your EZ-Pass automatically. We are actually parking for 14 days on Tuesday. Have had too much bad luck at JFK at the off airport lots. Used ABC again at Newark a few weeks ago. No problem as usual. Cheap too, if you pay cash.

  33. grim says:

    Last time we flew out of JFK it was really early on a Sunday.

    That was a great drive in, and concur with Stu, the long term lots were cost effective and convenient.

  34. Phoenix says:

    Might be getting tickets to Aerosmith at UBS arena. Right next to JFK. How is parking at that place?
    Or is the train/ bus the way to go there?

  35. Libturd says:

    Take LIRR from NYPenn. Then ten minute walk from Elmont Station on Hempstead Branch. Easy peazy and super cheap.

  36. Libturd says:

    Figure an hour tops. And LIRR is pleasant, compared with rolling turd that is NJTransit.

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Who’s to Blame for All Those Hidden Fees? We Are

    Four tests show why ‘drip pricing’ is so effective at getting us to pay up

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I can’t stand hidden fees. Just tell me the f/ing price instead of the con line.

  39. 3b says:

    Lib: The Grand Central east side extension is impressive. The escalators are massive. Meanwhile, I was in Hoboken Terminal the other day , and it’s literally falling apart.

  40. Phoenix says:


  41. Phoenix says:

    Never heard of this one, some of you probably know of it, but posting it anyway. RE data site.

  42. Phoenix says:

    What about Grand Central Madison vs Penn Station? I think GC would be easier for me to get to.

  43. Libturd says:

    Do you know how much money has been sunk into Hoboken terminal in the past 10 years?

    Last year, Murphy approved another 170 million. I wonder how much of it they have already spent?

  44. Libturd says:

    There is sparse service from GC, from any train going to Jamaica can be ridden and then transfer at Jamaica for the Hempstead line.

  45. 3b says:

    Lib: I know, they have spent massive amounts on Hoboken Terminal, and it still looks like crap. A few years ago they were renovating the small pedestrian tunnel from the Path train to the stair case up to the terminal. It took months, and now it’s falling apart again. The outside plaza has been fenced off in areas for years, nothing done. The pavers filled in with tar in big spots, and it appears to be sinking. I understand there are issues with flooding, but still with all that money spent, you would at least think they would try and maintain it. They did add new digital terminals for train schedules, hopefully they maintain them.

  46. 1987 Condo says:

    Lib, just booked with Claridge, gave you as referral, thx

  47. Libturd says:

    Great. Best car service around. They will not let you down.

  48. ExEx says:

    12:47 google: busty blue eyed natural blonde

  49. No One says:

    Side hustle inspiration for Phoenix?
    But don’t use venmo or paypal leaving evidence for prosecutors. And probably stick to orders worth $500 or more or it’s just not worth the trouble.

    Between on or about September 3, 2018, through July 12, 2021, JOSHUA TAYLOR transferred 39 electronic payments to PayPal account, operated by DENISE LODGE, totaling $37,355.56, in payment for human remains stolen by CEDRIC LODGE from Harvard Medical School. For example, on May 19, 2019, Taylor sent DENISE LODGE $1,000 with a memo that read “head number 7.” On November 20, 2020, Taylor sent DENISE LODGE $20 with a memo that read, “braiiiiiins.”

  50. ExEx says:

    Direct link, no Googling necessary

  51. ExEx says:

    Ouch! That “dude” is mean. I’ve heard stories.

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You have excellent taste, I must say.

    ExEx says:
    June 16, 2023 at 2:37 pm
    12:47 google: busty blue eyed natural blonde

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Hold up. So you think we consolidated for over a year with a confirmed breakout into a new bull market only to crash worse than we’ve ever seen?

    Why do some traders dig their heels in with an opinion they held months ago?

    This is the one industry where you don’t want to be stubborn. When the facts change, you have to form new opinions or you’ll get crushed.

    It’s ok to have been concerned when banks were failing left and right. It’s ok to have thought that corporate earnings were going to suck. It’s ok to have believed that the interest rate hikes were going to crush the economy.

    And now it’s ok to accept we are in a new bull market. Only once since 1949 has the market been red a year after entering a bull market (2001).

    We might get a black swan credit event when we hit a recession that could upend this whole rally. But do you really want to bet on a rare black swan event? If it happens, I’ll be singing a different tune.

    I do think we’ll get a pullback/correction in the summer but as of now, I’m of the belief October was the low.
    $SPY $SPX #SP500

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Been trying to convince my wife for months to put it back in. She continues to double down on waiting for the big bust. Girl all of a sudden has balls. I am telling her to take the f’ing win. Lock her up. No matter what happens, you won.

    She just doesn’t get it. So f’ing conservative…aka bearish bias.

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    To survive investing…you have to be able to switch bias/mindset on a dime. No one is perfect. You have to be nimble and adjust when wrong. Key.

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Like 3b, stay away from investing. You go all-in on short term trends. That chit is dangerous. That’s why ark type investments are so difficult. Not easy seeing past these short-term trend winners and losers.

    You see my track record with long-term calls. Unbelievable. Aka get in DNA. Anything under a $5 is a complete buy. Yes, hardcore growth will come sooner or later.

  57. 3b says:

    What a fecking laugh, if only you knew.

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Not coming from an arrogant approach, but trying to help. The teacher in me. You know how difficult it is to find a stock like DNA. I’m here throwing out free advice that took me years to develop, out of the goodness of my heart. Buying at these levels is almost impossible to lose. Not exaggerating. You think all these companies were signing up for partnerships during the dark hours of this cycle with a company going bankrupt? With a chit service? Right. Writing on the wall.

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And lefty has blasted it…understand he is coming from a fundamentalist approach. He would have said the same thing of tesla or bitcoin last decade. He is not wrong in his approach, just lacks the conviction that it takes to pull the trigger at this stage.

  60. The Great Pumpkin says:

    He knows the potential, but the risk blinds him.

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just to be clear; conviction in my book means buying when it looks like a horrible idea. That’s the only way to serious money. Can’t buy when it’s a good idea, that’s for maintenance of wealth. Creation of wealth requires balls of steel. This is the roller coaster that can make you go to sleep from the g force. Only the brave can ride.

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you want to understand the economy of the 2020s, and in particular how it will differ from the 2010s, you have to pay attention to the manufacturing supercycle that looks to be getting underway.…

  63. Hold my beer says:

    Its OK Pumps, happens to a lot of guys.

    “The Great Pumpkin says:

    Been trying to convince my wife for months to put it back in. “

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