From CNN:
The Fed holds rates steady, pausing its rate-hiking campaign
The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it would pause its historic rate-hiking campaign as it waits for the effects to trickle further through the economy, but signaled that additional rate hikes are likely this year.
The vote to skip a rate increase this meeting was unanimous.
Since March 2022, Fed officials have raised the central bank’s benchmark interest rate 10 times in a row in an attempt to cool the US economy and battle inflation that is still double the Fed’s target.
The Fed’s post-meeting statement confirmed that officials deem the pause a prudent move, but most officials think additional hikes are necessary this year, according to the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections.
“Looking ahead, nearly all Committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down 2% over time,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting news conference.
…
Most officials estimate the federal funds rate will top out at a range of 5.63-5.87% in 2023, suggesting there might be as many as two more quarter-point hikes this year. Rate increases larger than a quarter point are not likely since the Fed is inching closer to its inflation goal and officials thought it made “obvious sense to moderate our rate hikes as we got closer to our destination,” Powell said.
Future policy moves depend on what economic indicators show in the coming weeks and months, including the resilient job market. Payroll growth remains solid, as do wage gains, which put some upward pressure on prices. Top economists argue the still-tight labor market will prove to be a stubborn source of inflation that would need to rebalance in order to help inflation successfully fall to the central bank’s 2% target. Most officials in the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, expect the unemployment rate to rise to a range of 4-4.1% this year.
“The Fed is putting more weight on the strong jobs data and sticky core inflation than the slowing headline inflation numbers and is clearly trying to avoid a 1970s style resurgence in inflation,” wrote Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, in an analyst note. “The Fed had to do something to knock market optimism today, otherwise it risks a tougher inflation fight and deeper economic woes down the line.”
First
Last day in Manasquan, another beautiful day in the neighborhood. Wife and daughter already have their walks done and both want to buy a house on the beach….Ouch. I am trying to avoid that. Everything is like over 1 million to 3.2 million. Rents are sky high, we got a great deal .Two cottages for $10,000 for two weeks, but our time is up.
EFF is 5.08 still lower than before the housing bubble.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF
Enjoying the last couple of days at the beach before the onslaught of traffic and people.
re Manasquan.. All yours…..for 2.2. million
Check out the lovely washer in the basement….lol
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/55-Beachfront-Manasquan-NJ-08736/39303662_zpid/?mmlb=g,51
Juice Box says:
June 15, 2023 at 7:50 am
re Manasquan.. All yours…..for 2.2. million
Check out the lovely washer in the basement….lol
Crazy right! We are literally 15 houses away from that one, the views are tremendous. Prices are completely unbelievable. I have to get back home to Morris county for a reality check.
I don’t usually watch Oz Powell presser but key takeaways which seemed very firm:
-Every member is committed to 2% inflation target and mentioned high core
-Two more rate hikes in 2023
-No rate cuts for years
He is probably BS of course. The market will ignore him and anticipate no more rate hikes and early 2024 rate cuts in order to feed the WS pocket books.
Inversion 94 bps
Sub 14 VIX
Once a woman makes a nest in your house, even with a pre-nup, a judge will side with her no matter what. He has money so he will be okay, but I feel for him. Same like the cop from Jefferson, thrown out of his own house.
Kevin Costner’s divorce from estranged wife Christine Baumgartner just got explosive, with claims that the star is now ‘homeless’, she splurged $95,000 on his credit card and has a restraining order against him.
In court papers seen by DailyMail the actor’s lawyers claim that they have made ‘multiple offers’ to get his wife to move out of the former marital home – but have failed to reach agreement with Christine, 49, a model turned handbag designer, leaving him effectively homeless.
AI should make a Graduation decoder:
Students: I enjoyed my time here, loved everyone, teachers were wonderful
Translated: I can’t wait to get out, hated almost everyone, teachers sucked, give me a drink:
Principal: You were my best class, I enjoyed every one of you, hope you do well
Translated: glad this year is over, you were all a hol es, I don’t care how you do, that is why I didn’t fulfill your requests or help you if you were bullied. I am so happy I’m one year closer to retirement and my government pension
Nothing like listening to a hour of lying and bull shite.
Jim,
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/203-S-Metropolitan-Ave-Atlantic-City-NJ-08401/52663997_zpid/
You are 3 blocks from the largest indoor waterpark on the east coast opening in a few weeks. And one block from the nicest (free) beach in Atlantic City. You can easily Air BNB it for $300 a night once the park opens. There’s already an amazing arcade/go carts/amusement pier/giant ferris wheel. Also, across the street from the Ocean Casino and a few more blocks to Hard Rock which are definitely in the top 3 of casinos in AC. The rebirth emanates from Tennessee Ave. north. Everything else in the area has already sold. It’s hipster central right now. In five years, it will be a thriving degentrified neighborhood.
There are still a few places on shadier blocks going for 100-200K. I swear, this place is turning.
That house was bought in 2019 for 120K. Taxes are about 3K.
If I was single and just outta school, I would definitely buy one of these.
“No rate cut for years” is posturing to get the long end of the curve higher.
It sucks. Chitty job to have. So difficult. He is up against massive greed. There is no reason for anymore rate hikes, and he knows it. Problem, the f/ing greedy bastards in the market. They will overheat it and crash it every single time. They can’t chill out, always zero to 100 in either direction. Greed is a deadly sin.
Sad part, this is exactly why you need the Fed. You need them to constantly prevent these greedy f/ks from crashing or overheating the market. They will short it to chit on the way down, and will option trade it up to create bubble. Pure madness drunk of greed.
Bystander says:
June 15, 2023 at 8:16 am
I don’t usually watch Oz Powell presser but key takeaways which seemed very firm:
-Every member is committed to 2% inflation target and mentioned high core
-Two more rate hikes in 2023
-No rate cuts for years
He is probably BS of course. The market will ignore him and anticipate no more rate hikes and early 2024 rate cuts in order to feed the WS pocket books.
That a boy! Some great advise right there. Most won’t be able to pull the trigger though…
Libturd says:
June 15, 2023 at 8:54 am
Jim,
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/203-S-Metropolitan-Ave-Atlantic-City-NJ-08401/52663997_zpid/
You are 3 blocks from the largest indoor waterpark on the east coast opening in a few weeks. And one block from the nicest (free) beach in Atlantic City. You can easily Air BNB it for $300 a night once the park opens. There’s already an amazing arcade/go carts/amusement pier/giant ferris wheel. Also, across the street from the Ocean Casino and a few more blocks to Hard Rock which are definitely in the top 3 of casinos in AC. The rebirth emanates from Tennessee Ave. north. Everything else in the area has already sold. It’s hipster central right now. In five years, it will be a thriving degentrified neighborhood.
There are still a few places on shadier blocks going for 100-200K. I swear, this place is turning.
re: ” N̶o̶ ̶r̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶c̶u̶t̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶s̶”
More like “no rate cut until the next crisis” which is always a round the corner.
This one is bubbling up.
CRE office buildings are taking it on the chin. Trillions in outstanding debt. Lots of walk always already. When the income cannot even service the debt there is no money left for maintenance or any profits.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CREACBM027NBOG
Libturd says:
June 15, 2023 at 8:54 am
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/203-S-Metropolitan-Ave-Atlantic-City-NJ-08401/52663997_zpid/
Lib, I am sure you are correct, but my daughter and wife would not even consider AC. Also Manasquan is one hour and 20 minutes from where we are now.
Daughter works from home, son in law works in Ohio but a headhunter has two jobs to fill one Target the other@ Mckesson. Both are work from home and with pay increases. They are already in the top 1% of wage earners in Ohio. I am amazed at their income and proud of their hard work, let them buy the house and I can visit.
re: Atlantic City.
What a weird wasteland by the house. Google map drive around that block.
https://tinyurl.com/2vjjjpzx
..Also beach is only a few feet wide there. The Casino is pumping sand privately for their strip of land… Army Corps has no plans to fix the beach.
Right after Sandy, I told my brothers we should buy something in Seaside Heights. We didn’t.
Juice,
Yup, always around the corner.
All I know when it comes to CRE, it is a major part of the economy. Most of it is run on interest only loans. They will walk and take the write off. I was told on this blog not to worry about it, but this money has to come from somewhere. Giant sucking sound on economic growth if CRE crashes. Want to talk about deflation….liquidity crunch. It will impact the access to capital for everything else in the economy.
re: write off.
Banks cannot write it off. Case in point the last couple of bank failures that required bailouts. So far this month no bank failures.
Remember most lenders, directors, and senior officers of banks have not experienced a CRE downturn in their career as the last major one was 40 years ago.
Don’t know how big it will be but the maturing loans backed by struggling assets all need to be refinanced at much higher rates. Could be allot of CRE defaults if rates remain high along with vacancies.
re: Seaside Heights
Where once stood the Yakety Yak Cafe on the boulevard they want to build 10 story mixed use apartment building, the first hi-rise building on that 20-mile long barrier island that is slowly sinking into the ocean. They still have not broken ground yet…We shall see. The last building was never finished either, that was 5 stories….
Yes, banks can’t write it off, but REITS can and will. Totally f’ing the banks aka f’ing us. How are banks going to provide liquidity when they are collapsing themselves?
Juice,
Want to talk about traffic and congestion…build it up!
You sound rich.
Should have did it by yourself.
Fast Eddie says:
June 15, 2023 at 9:28 am
Right after Sandy, I told my brothers we should buy something in Seaside Heights. We didn’t.
So the newest NAR talking point is that home prices won’t come down until interest rates do, as only low interest will make the golden handcuff crowd want to trade up.
Traffic and congestion for at most 2 months a year.
Go to Seaside even today middle of June and it is a ghost town.
https://exit82.com/beach-cam/
From the Patch, this is probably the 5th story I have read recently where kids steal car, police chase and then a crash. After all of that they are released to there parents. They are even making it all the way out by us, several cars have been stole in our town in the last couple of months. Not even old enough to have a license.
SUMMIT, NJ – Five teens were charged Wednesday after the reportedly stolen car they were in flipped on Route 24 in Union County, authorities said.
At around 4:11 p.m., a Summit police detective located and began to follow a 2019 Audi A5 that was reported stolen in Montclair, Summit police said in a statement.
The vehicle was traveling east on Route 24 near Hobart Avenue when it “suddenly accelerated” onto Route 24 East, sideswiping six cars before flipping one quarter of a mile west of the 9A Broad Street exit, police said.
Five individuals exited the vehicle and fled east on the shoulder of the highway into a PSE&G maintenance yard on 48 Middle Avenue, police said.
Three suspects were immediately arrested by Summit police; a fourth suspect was arrested by a Millburn police unit.
Find out what’s happening in Long Valleywith free, real-time updates from Patch.
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After a perimeter was set up near Broad Street and Middle Avenue, and with the Union County Sheriff’s K-9 Search and Rescue Unit and a Millburn Police drone search for the fifth individual, the remaining suspect was found around two hours later on Route 78 west at mile marker 51 in Union Township, police said.
All five of the suspects are 16 years old and from Essex County, police said.
They were released to the custody of their guardians pending a hearing.
Jersey shore
Expensive, smelly. More regulations than a pharmaceutical processing plant, with PoPo inspectors everywhere ready to place a ticket on your car at an overpriced parking spot. Traffic from hell, then faster speeds than the Indy 500 with banana peel tires, drivers drunk and high on edibles.
It’s for the youth to go hookup, make babies, then abort them before the next semester begins-or try out their first dose of Narcan.
Pumps – REITs use CMBS loans to finance their property investments. It is always the debt.. CMBS… New issuance of CMBS has dropped 85%.
1/3 of office buildings are now obsolete. Trillions go POOF!!
Trick,
Those kids have good skills. Old cars *other than Hyundai* are easier to steal. Just saw one article with a 13 year old stealing a Mercedes.
It appears marketing is doing a great job, these kids know what cars they like.
I enjoy this, and find it entertaining, as far as I am concerned it is just another form of capitalism. Billionaires steal, so why not 13 year old children? Look at all the grannies that lied about home ownership during Sandy to steal from the government.
No one is going to steal my old car. Haha.
And stupid cops chasing children at high speeds in traffic don’t give a rats azz if they chase them until they crash into the innocent, then wanna be heroes pulling your dying kid out of your car so they can get their picture in the paper.
Justice is not arresting and convicting a guy that killed your kid. That ain’t bringing them back. Go engrave the words “they had the right of way” on their gravestone.
Americans have a sick way of looking at things, they get enjoyment from the prosecution of people rather than the prevention of the crime at all.
I don’t care about your luxury car Dexter. Next time buy a Camry and a side piece if you want to feel good about yourself.
Boomer: And then the low interest rates will drive house prices even higher, and we will be back to where we were, before the Fed started raising rates. Completely irrational.
And then the low interest rates will drive house prices even higher…
I was thinking the same unless the muppet masses decide to make the move. They’re pausing now because they have a low rate or maybe no mortgage at all so they’re holding steady. If rates drop drastically, perhaps the flood gates open giving sellers more to choose from. Greater inventory, lesser demand? It’s a balancing act.
3b
It is rational. How would you say it isn’t?
It’s a capitalist nation, and raising your house price is how you profit in a capitalist society.
Prove me wrong and list your house for sale at the price it was appraised at 3 years ago.
Yeah, didn’t think so.
Trick
There were a lot of car thefts in Livingston when we lived there. People would leave laptops and phones in their unlocked cars or leave the keys in the ignition when they jumped out to get a coffee. I had no pity for them. They were attracting thieves to the town.
It’s all a cycle.
3b says:
June 15, 2023 at 10:28 am
Boomer: And then the low interest rates will drive house prices even higher, and we will be back to where we were, before the Fed started raising rates. Completely irrational.
Phoenix,
Love the Jersey Shore observation. lol. But isn’t it true? It’s a crowded, overpriced mess. I remember not too long ago when Point Pleasant was sort of a kept secret and actually… well… pleasant. It turned into a crowded mess real quick. Where will the locusts descend upon next?
And liquidity enters the global economy.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-cuts-rates-to-prop-up-flagging-recovery-6fe3ec72?mod=hp_lead_pos2
It’s mostly all the same gangs stealing the cars and sending them to chop shops or putting them in shipping containers to be sold overseas. The gangs recruit the kids to do the auto theft because well they cannot be prosecuted under the current laws.
There was an uproar about late last year it but has since died down, only change was the Attorney General now allows police chases again. Tough on crime laws for auto theft were introduced but people have short memories as it wound through the New Jersey legislature it was watered down, the inner city politicians made sure of it. The latest bill to pass the legislature will not include juvenile offenders and has not passed in the Senate.
https://www.billtrack50.com/billdetail/1503378
According to the smart folks at Rutgers law school, who testified about auto theft in NJ for this specific legislaiton.
“incarceration increases rather than decreases recidivism”
Then there is this one they said with a straight face to……”we also know children break the law at roughly equal rates across racial and ethnic lines”
What does that have to do with an auto theft gang??? Last I heard the gangs were racist as they were not recruiting any Asian, Hispanic or white teenagers to steal cars…
Seaside heights is really going through a transformation – they are cleaning up the town
Houses up 40% since 2019.
Fuck you, pay me.
Where will the locusts descend upon next?
Hospitals and cemeteries.
Driving up the price of healthcare and burial plots.
Where will the locusts descend upon next?
Hospitals and cemeteries.
Driving up the price of healthcare and burial plots.
We have a lot of family’s posting video’s on the ring app showing kids walking up to cars in the driveway checking door handles at night. Usually 1 kid in a car as the other walks the neighborhood.
I have been conditioned to not short anything at this point. That’s how absurd the everything meltup is right now.
This recent rip on SPY is even more vertical than 1Q2020!
Left what’s your counter trend play?
Point Pleasant seems to be the only beach with people on it now. The water is 64 F lol…. refreshing for sure….
https://video.nest.com/live/dCd4cm9iqX
Last I heard the gangs were racist as they were not recruiting any Asian, Hispanic or white teenagers to steal cars…
White Criminals Matter.
I don’t care.
Steal my car, I call the insurance, I get a new one.
No problem. What would bother me is if the Po Po chased someone in my car into a minivan full of children, then handed me the keys and the paperwork to my now deathmobile.
Just give me another car instead. Let them have it. It’s all good.
trick – Again our governor’s response back in September was classic when someone tried to steal a car on his street.
“I can’t believe these guys were stupid enough to come close … given the security on our street.”
Meaning the roadblock and 24 x 7 Trooper detail protecting his street, mostly to keep protestors away from the public street in front of his mansion. They even chase away protestors who took the river in Kayaks..
https://www.nj.com/news/2022/09/increased-police-patrol-around-gov-murphys-home-after-attempted-car-theft-at-neighbors-house.html
Had my car stolen back when I was at NJIT, went in for 1 class came out and it was gone. Old plymouth horizon with well over 100k. I had trouble starting it with a key, must have taken them some time to get it going. Walked into the campus police station and they said they new the kids that probably stole it. Car was eventually found and towed to the pound, stole the radio and the batterie. They broke the column and used a rod to start it. That’s how I kept it until it eventually died.
Phoenix
When are you going to write your dystopian novel or noir mystery?
Boomer sent all of the jobs overseas. Boomer put kiosks to eliminate jobs. Boomer overcharges for rent and houses. Boomer collects social security until it’s bankrupt for the youth that are now stealing cars.
Hey they have to get money to put in their 401k’s since they don’t have pensions like boomer has who took it away from them.
Let it rip guys. See your videos on You Tube. And the best drunk ones on Drive Through Tours.
Funny I mentioned the last one, knew I would get a hit. Co worker has a friend who’s drunken tirade was plastered all over You Tube.
You want to cut down on DWI, the law isn’t the trick. Having your drunken video plastered all over the internet is more of a deterrent than anything a judge will do.
Too bad they didn’t have body cameras during my divorce. Wealthy town, but the cops didn’t want them (of course) so they were probably the last in the state even though they were flush with cash. Could have had more ammo in my divorce-but with female judges she could have murdered my kid and they would have done nothing anyway.
I have no doubt that body cameras prevent the rape of daughters if you know what I mean.
Hold my beer says:
June 15, 2023 at 10:51 am
Phoenix
When are you going to write your dystopian novel or noir mystery?
Working on it. I usually have time after the femoral and tibial components are in and we are waiting for the cement to harden.
Phoenix – It’s not the car being stolen so much it’s the breaking and entering of the house to get the car key/fob etc…Recently one enterprising 16 year old just trying to make a living by stealing cars in NJ was armed with a 9mm handgun and hollow points. He was arrested running on foot, no car chase involved as he was not a great car thief either, or responsible gun owner as he shot himself running away from police.
Yeah now that Cormac McCarthy has left the mortal coil…..
Juice,
5 armed men entered my house and ejected me from it based on the lie of one female.
I’m sure they have hollow points as well, and were very well trained to shoot.
While out of my house, she looted everything, even my high school yearbooks.
So no, I don’t care. But if you get shot, and come to my place, I will do my best to patch you up as I am a professional and it is my job. Sorry but I have to say I will do exactly the same for the criminal that comes in full of lead poisoning.
Devil in the grooves: The case against forensic firearms analysis
A landmark Chicago court ruling threatens a century of expert ballistics testimony
https://radleybalko.substack.com/p/devil-in-the-grooves-the-case-against?r=nvx8&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Pretty terrible
Joyce,
I watched a video where the cops went into a man’s house and slammed a door into the side of his expensive car multiple times on purpose to dent the door.
Cop didn’t see the security camera he had in his garage.
It’s all I need to know.
Protect yourself. Always.
Despite the widespread ban on military use, hollow-point bullets are one of the most common types of bullets used by civilians and police,[3] which is due largely to the reduced risk of bystanders being hit by over-penetrating or ricocheted bullets, and the increased speed of incapacitation.[4]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollow-point_bullet
Maybe the little thug was being responsible?
Juice Box says:
June 15, 2023 at 11:18 am
Phoenix – It’s not the car being stolen so much it’s the breaking and entering of the house to get the car key/fob etc…Recently one enterprising 16 year old just trying to make a living by stealing cars in NJ was armed with a 9mm handgun and hollow points. He was arrested running on foot, no car chase involved as he was not a great car thief either, or responsible gun owner as he shot himself running away from police.
Oh,
And I work with the wife of one. We travel in the same direction. She goes by me at over 100 every day.
No way that one is ever going to get a ticket. Blond, hot, tinted windows, and married to a cop.
All animals are equal, some are more equal than others.
Or maybe the gun was stolen fully loaded and it’s all he had on hand.
Sometimes you use what you got.
“Maybe the little thug was being responsible?”
Kid I grew up with had a nasty Ex that also mated with a Cop.
Made his life miserable and bullied the living sh-t out of the poor guy.
Damaged women often gravitate toward perceived authority figures.
Don’t worry, she’ll always be the empty shell of a person that she is.
There’s nothing systemically wrong with cops. Come on now.
Geico just emailed me this!
Thank you for choosing GEICO Insurance
We are required by the State of New Jersey to provide the following notice regarding a potential rate change.
This is to provide notice as required pursuant to N.J.S.A.52:27EE-51 that Government Employees Insurance Company filed on March 28, 2023, with the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance a request for a rate increase in the amount of 26.3% for the private passenger automobile line of business.
Under the proposed filing, the average liability-only policy will see a rate change of 18.7%. The average Full Coverage policy (includes comprehensive and collision coverage) will see a rate change of 26.3%. The impact of the filing on your rates may vary substantially, depending on the terms of your policy and your individual circumstances.
I have a 17 year old driver so my rates suck. I will see if it makes sense for him to get his own policy when he is college in Florida. NJ continues to suck more and more as each day goes buy.
Ugh, it’s likely to be more expensive. Oy! 20% are uninsured down there. Worst in the country. Must be that Republican Governor. A derrrr.
Lib, think how much mine went up after my 19 yr old got a speeding ticket.
And the youngest’s gets his license in January.
Trick
Mt Olive?
Gator and I are pretty safe drivers so the policy was down to around 1K. We added the little man and it added like $1,200 if I recall correctly.
Friend of my wife still has her car registered and insured in Florida (her father’s address), because of how much cheaper it is.
She’s done this for years.
Cava IPO today. Fake middle eastern to Chipotle’s fake mexican aka the Mexitech stock.
I heard the recipes are generated by AI. AI Based Gyro bowl.
I think Cava’s food is ok, but it stinks as “middle eastern”. There’s a mini-chain called NAYA that does middle eastern pseudo Chipotle much better., with three spots in NYC.
Phoenix- LV
Lib, we were just over 1k with NJM, now its 3k.
As said markets ignore Oz Powell. He has lost credibility and traders have zero respect for his words. They can easily bully him He is a pathetic cuck who has allowed incredible bubbles to form because weak character.
Speeding ticket was in the caldwells, have to be very careful driving through MO. Got pulled over once coming back from lacrosse practice and luckily he let me go because we were in neighboring towns.
The best middle eastern gyro platter I can get is at Bereket Market in North Brunswick.
https://www.yelp.com/biz_photos/bereket-market-place-monmouth-junction?select=7tPgzArg6x3RAWBfL2QFHg
We can go nearly anywhere in Paterson. Of course, your car may not be there when you return.
Trick
Look up JBV1
Beijing has finally had enough. The Chinese leadership is planning major steps to revive the country’s flagging economy, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. This includes the possibility of billions of dollars in new infrastructure spending and looser rules to encourage property investors to buy more homes.
The stimulus plan comes after a slew of troubling economic data for May, showing that consumer spending barely grew from April, while manufacturing and investment activities both lost steam. It also follows multiple moves by the country’s central bank to cut rates this week.
All that may not be enough. The deeper cause of the slowdown has been a shift in Beijing from an economy-first mindset to a security-first one, argues Heard on the Street’s Nathaniel Taplin. He sees little indication this will change.
Meanwhile the European Central Bank is still in tightening mode. The ECB raised rates for the eighth consecutive time on Thursday, and made comments that were more hawkish than markets expected. The euro rose around 1% against the dollar in response.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve seems somewhere in between, pausing its rate increases for now but signaling that more could still be in store. Markets on Thursday seemed to betting that the Fed will end up trending dovish. The Dow Jones Industrial average rose 428.7 points, or 1.3% to a 2023 high, while the S&P 500 gained 1.2%.
I keep banging this drum, but it’s the damn truth. They are dealing with a much smarter market investor compared to the past. That’s why the market is turning into a casino on the short side. Bunch of individuals and algorithms trying to outsmart each other. It’s crazy.
The Fed is in a tough spot. The market pretty much knows the Fed move before the Fed does. It’s wild. 40 years ago, most people didn’t understand rates or liquidity….now most of them do.
Bystander says:
June 15, 2023 at 3:44 pm
As said markets ignore Oz Powell. He has lost credibility and traders have zero respect for his words. They can easily bully him He is a pathetic cuck who has allowed incredible bubbles to form because weak character.
“The market pretty much knows the Fed move before the Fed does”
No, it is the tail wagging the dog ie the market playing chicken with Fed. The Fed should be focused on pricing and stability but they are focused on creating bubbles bc won’t let any natural risk or even slightest pain infiltrate market.
As Large Language Models (LLMs) grip the popular imagination, fears over job security are possibly overdone. First, Richard Eisenberg of Jane Street suggested they’re less transformative than they seem, now it’s ex-Goldman partner, Marty Chavez of investment management firm Sixth Street and David Siegel of hedge fund Two Sigma, who are offering words of reassurance.
“AI has been having an impact for decades, this stuff isn’t brand new” Siegel said speaking on a recent panel with Bloomberg, “What’s really changed is that the awareness has occurred.”
That’s not to say the work being done with these LLMs isn’t impressive. Siegel says, “everyone is pretty surprised at behaviors occurring from Large Language Models,” but that “people are reading too much into it.”
Lamenting the prominence of AI bots in the news, Siegel brought up “Eliza, the first chat program invented at MIT in the 70s that made the front page of the New York Times.” For its time “people were seduced by it” despite, as Chavez pointed out, it being made of “a few hundred lines of lisp.”
“It’s just more software,” Chavez says. “We’ve been bringing more software into finance for a really long time.” He says LLMs will never achieve the “holy grail” of predicting the stock market.
The reason for this, for Chavez, is that LLMs’ strengths lie in analyzing stable datasets. Using cats as an example, he says that the prominence of data and its definiteness in defining what a cat is makes ChatGPT or Google Bard well-equipped to understand it. “”The concept of a cat is stable in time,” he says. “The stock market is notoriously not a stable distribution.”
By,
You nailed it. They are playing ckn with the Fed. Like I said, they think they know the Fed’s move before the Fed does.
Lefty said this months ago. The market doesn’t give a chit about inflation or the Fed at this stage in the cycle. Unless inflation makes a comeback, they are staring at inflation in s downward trend…strong trend and acting on it.
They do care about the Fed. They saw that inflation was not moving up so stop the rate hikes and start the rate cuts. That hubris has allowed market to go bonkers after they also got more bailouts. 7 weeks until another Fed meeting and more overpriced stocks to come…then another game of chicken to show the Oz Powell was BS in his further rate hikes.
A reminder..50% of this country does not have a pot to piss in. Another 30% scrape by trying to survive with their little pot. This blog is mostly the 20/10/5 percent doing well to extremely well. Worry about the 80% who don’t trade for a living..
Bystander: Exactly. They know the Fed has lost all credibility. This mmmmmm Fed should have continued to tighten, and send the markets a message. The madness will continue, until there is a nasty recession.
The reason for this, for Chavez, is that LLMs’ strengths lie in analyzing stable datasets. Using cats as an example, he says that the prominence of data and its definiteness in defining what a cat is makes ChatGPT or Google Bard well-equipped to understand it. “”The concept of a cat is stable in time,” he says. “The stock market is notoriously not a stable distribution.”
It’s hard to get a man to understand something when his livelihood is dependent on his not understanding it.
Libturd says:
June 15, 2023 at 1:02 pm
Geico just emailed me this!
My insurance is also Geico, got the e-mail. WHY? no accidents in over 30 years and now I don’t even go out some days. My current bill that I paid is 1012.50 so my new bill will be 1,280.00 every 6 months. I also got a second letter stating—-“””This rate change will not go into effect before December 12, 2023.”””
I will dodge a bullet for 6 months because my policy renews Dec 4 2023. I have had Geico for over 25 years… so much for loyalty, Thanks Buffet!!!
Lib are you going to try a change, if so what company?
Thanks for any info you can give me, Jim
Holy crap, they did it! BlackRock has officially filed for a spot bitcoin ETF. Huge. Huge h/t to @CoinDesk for calling it.
https://twitter.com/ericbalchunas/status/1669447691787444224?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
Jim: I got the e mail too. And also good until December. The email does not say exactly how much it goes up based on how the e mail is worded, but it will be a significant increase. We should know by end of October beginning of November, when the policy renews for another 6 months. It is NJ of course, and we are privileged to live here, and should be happy to pay whatever they want. Not every place can be special.
“I do it to blow off steam.”
A trail camera intended to catch hand sanitizer thieves captured 64-year-old Chemical Engineering Professor, Themis Matsoukas committing multiple sexual acts with his collie near the restrooms at Rothrock State Forest on April 13, 2023, according to the criminal complaint filed by the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources.
The dog was attached to its leash during the acts, the rangers explained in the affidavit.
Matsoukas returned to the park and “performed a similar act” in May and the assaults were caught on the forest’s parking lot camera, court documents show.
Park rangers identified him using his Northface backpack. In the videos he apparently was using a tablet to record himself raping his collie, investigators explained.