From Ritholtz:
What Recession?
Rising rates, falling savings, increased deficits, dubious GDP: Ever since the yield curve inverted and warnings of “imminent recession” filled the air, the Philly Fed’s map of State Coincident Indexes has provided a good real-time snapshot of the state of the economy. Friday’s release might have snuck by, but its filled with upside surprises that are worth looking at.
The overview is simple: Over the past 3 months, the coincident indexes for all 50 states indexes have increased (Diffusion index = 100). Last month (May 2023), indexes increased in 47 of 50 states, were flat in 2 states (Minnesota and Rhode Island), and fell in just 1 (Wisconsin). Other states that were softish include New Jersey, Arkansas, and Kentucky.
Ned Davis Research crunches the state coincident indexes into a probability chart that shows but a 1% chance we are currently in a recession. This is not a prediction, but rather, a reading of the coincident indexes as a current recession indicator.
First
Stores are still busy, Restaurants are still crowded even on Monday nights and concerts are still selling out in my area.
Shrug, went to look at a Bronco the other day.
Dealership wanted $10,000 over sticker.
Economy must be pretty good.
Here’s some doom and gloom. Hoping my pathfinder lasts until spring. Maybe I will be able to pick up a nice used car or get a zero% fininaxe rate on a new one.
https://www.automoblog.net/negative-equity-surge-auto-loans/
I offered sticker price, ready to buy.
Hard no.
This guy might be able to help w car purchase. Entertaining at a minimum.
https://twitter.com/GuyDealership
LeaseHacker used to have decent info and if you want Money Factors, residuals and incentives, Edmunds forums. https://forums.edmunds.com/
I offered sticker price, ready to buy.
Hard no.
Tell them to wipe their ass with it. House tour guides and car dealers live in the same world.
Market psychology. Even though there was never a recession, everyone and their mother either acted like we were in one or that one was coming. Companies cut back costs. Laid off people. Readjusted long-term plans. I have given up on the recession. Is one really coming? Maybe not for a while…I just don’t see it.
I always said roaring 20’s 2.0. Maybe all the Fed did the past two years with this rate hike cycle is cool off the boom. Making it actually healthy for a longer stronger run. Tough to say, but could be.
Like it’s crazy how badly the market punished high growth stocks/tech stocks and fled to safety stocks. All this movement? Was it even necessary? The market just created opportunities in the short term by acting on fear of a recession and high interest rates. It’s absolutely crazy now in hindsight. All that movement in the short term for what? They all are slowly coming back into the same damn positions in tech and high growth. The market is insane in the short-term, but that’s what creates the opportunity. Crank up that fear! Let the herd act on it, and the wolves come in and clean up.
Making it actually healthy for a longer stronger run.
Every service and item is ridiculous in price. Every time you walk out your front door, your wallet will sound like a vacuum cleaner is attached to it. Nowhere to hide, nothing exempt, nothing free nor reasonably priced. Absolute absurdity. Society is addicted to shit on every level. NJ is 3rd in the nation in average credit card debt at just under $10,000. It’s madness.
KPMG is cutting 5 percent of its US employees, after cutting 2 percent in Feb. Ernest & Young cut 5 percent in April.
OTOH, isn’t everyone (who is literate) making +$200K HHI?
Fast,
Trying to make sense of it.
Study on markups from a hew months ago.
Jeep Wrangler – Price – MSRP % Difference 23.9%
https://www.iseecars.com/new-cars-with-greatest-price-hikes-study
Fab,
I will email you. I tried Chatgpt a few months back for about 6 positions but it did not help. Also, check out recruitinghell on Reddit if you want a laugh. Sure, lots of exaggerating but there.are plenty of insane yet true stories.
Many developers out of work for 6 months.Perhaps you will land something quick.
Why is the DOW stuck at same point as when the vegetable took office? CDs and savings accounts have replaced it? Really? Then why are HELOCs on the rise? If I’m paying $7.00 for a box of Cheez-its, why is the stock at the same price point even before Covid?
Fast: According to the Marketwatch article HElO s are being used by consumers to help with bill payments.
WoW… did not know San Fran area still has the eviction ban going 3 + years on.
“Tenants must start paying rent in August in most cases, but cannot be evicted for back rent if their financial hardship was caused by the pandemic.”
https://news.yahoo.com/tenants-3-ban-evictions-kept-133913306.html
According to the Marketwatch article HElO s are being used by consumers to help with bill payments.
Is that to pay for those Ford Broncos selling for 10K over the list price?
Fast: I have to say the Ford Bronco is a sharp looking SUV!
Fast Eddie says:
June 27, 2023 at 9:53 am
Why is the DOW stuck at same point as when the vegetable took office? CDs and savings accounts have replaced it? Really? Then why are HELOCs on the rise? If I’m paying $7.00 for a box of Cheez-its, why is the stock at the same price point even before Covid?
Eddie, unlike this President, vegetables are good for you.
Dedicated to Fast Eddie and Chesterfields:
https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1673461233230442497?s=20
Boomer gives themselves another bailout:
https://www.staynj.com/
If boomer only pays half the taxes they owe to run government services in NJ, what happens to the other half that they don’t have to pay?
Ozempic PILLS could be rolled out within six months.
This stuff is going to sell like crazy.
Chi 10:50,
Wood-burning pizza ovens, gas stoves… yes, ban it all. I also think exhaling should be regulated or taxed heavily according to ones body mass index. 8 billion people breathing is contributing to global warming. Especially the chubby muppets. Too much CO2. The fatter you are, the less breaths you’re allowed to take per minute. You’ll need to wear a government-issued monitor. Registered democrats will get tax credits, it’s only fair because they care about the world we’re leaving to our transgendered children.
Phoenix says:
June 27, 2023 at 10:55 am
Boomer gives themselves another bailout:
https://www.staynj.com/
This will never ever be funded, its a joke from the Democrats to con retirees to stay in NJ. It begins in January 2026, and can only be paid after pension payment is 100% paid and numerous other bills. All the Democrats are laughing like hell because they realize it will never be funded.
“build generational wealth and pursue the American Dream.”
By leaving future generations the debt Boomer didn’t pay.
Should say: build generational debt.
Keep the wood fired pizza ovens, and shoot down these:
“A private jet is the most polluting form of transport you can take,” says Matt Finch, the UK policy manager for Transport & Environment. “The average private jet emits two tonnes of carbon an hour. The average European is responsible for [emitting] eight tonnes of carbon a year.Jan 26, 2023
Semaglutide some amazing stuff. 4 months in. 235 to 210 and the best I’ve felt in years – target is 195-ish, so nearly there.
I’m fairly active, exercise regularly, try to eat well. Semaglutide is a game changer. I don’t have a desire to eat crap anymore. I don’t feel like I need to grab a beer with dinner. I don’t cheat with a piece of cake or dessert. I can stick to a diet, see far better progress with diet and exercise. Far easier to eat in moderation, feel satisfied, etc.
Tried for years to fight my way back down to sub-200, unsuccessfully. This time, it’s been a god damned joy.
I can see why insurance companies are going to fight this tooth and nail. It works, it works really well. Even saying that, doesn’t even come close to expressing how well this stuff works.
Bloodwork is fantastic now. Resting heart rate best it’s been in more than a decade. Feel like I can push myself even harder with exercise than I could previously. Even more active now than I was 4 months ago.
In terms of improving my health, cardiovascular risk, etc etc – for sure I’m in a better place right now. Unless this stuff starts killing people, it’s going to be the most monumental drug class of the next two or three decades.
Grim: Did you have a health directed reason to use?
So my years of self deprivation were in vain?
150, 5’9” , 60 yo
Genetic/family risk factors – hypertension, high cholesterol, and drug-controlled diabetes.
Do you get to stop the injections once you reach your interim goal, or are you on this for the long haul?
Nice, grim!
Any bogleheads have opinion on VWENX vs a Vanguard target fund? I am switching by target fund to be more aggressive but VWENX looks actively managed. Not sure pluses or minuses but Wellington has good rep . Expense is low at .017 but could also try lower 3 fund strat.
Grim,
Sounds like I started a month after you. My progress is slower. Using W. 14 weeks in and down about 14 pounds. My Dr. actually prefers slow and steady. A1C improved some. Cholesterol still not great so I’ve been upping the exercise lately. I’m paying out of pocket, nearly $1k/mo even after Novo’s discount. Hoping that within a couple of years pricing will drop due to competition from additional category products, but net, I make a lot more money alive than dead, so still a good value proposition for me.
I feel full easier, fewer urges to snack, seem to have less blood sugar swings. But you still have to put forth the effort to actually eat less – only rarely does it feel like I just can’t eat any more. I haven’t noticed any negative side effects. If anything my digestion is better, not worse, in contrast to the warnings. I still haven’t made it to the maximum strength dose yet.
10:40 Heloc rise? Most people are extracting equity from huge home valuations. They also know based on their existing historically low primary interest rate that it’s unlikely that they’ll move. Using the lower heloc rate to pay off sky high interest credit card bills & doing modest home improvement.
grim says:
June 27, 2023 at 11:51 am
Grim, that is extremely impressive, I have battled my weight for years…..maybe its time to give it a shot( literally). I already take insulin to control diabetes which my Dr. brought on with mega dosing predisone for lung disease. Although I don’t constantly cough anymore.
Re: Ford Selling over list. Give it another year. The first release of that model had some serious issues with the motor. Now they may have worked that issue out. Those things will be sitting on the lot in higher numbers very soon. With high interest rates on car loans I would wait.
I lose 20 pounds every summer eating from my giant gardens. I snack just as much, but it’s just on tomatoes, berries, peppers, and figs etc… I usually switch to fish/seafood as my primary proteins as we stock up every trip to the shore at the fish markets.
I gain it back every winter by around Feb/March with my diet change. Being pressed for time kills my diet.
I’d think I’d rather stay exactly within 1-3lbs of my current weight while starving rather than yoyo 20lbs. That’s a bit much.
Grim, they are discounting jeep grand Cherokee and wrangle 4xe’s, still overpriced and unreliable. Couple months ago they were marked up over 10k
Looks like it’s only the Grand Cherokee,
Ex: And then they will charge up their credit cards again.
I would too. It’s just the way my schedule is in October through May, it will never happen until maybe my kids graduate high school. That being said, the take home message is, simple diet changes can make you go one way or the other.
Eat more vegetables. No sugar. No crappy oils. It goes a long way very quickly.
And then they will charge up their credit cards again.
Yup. As soon as you think the boat is drained, water starts to flow in the cracks again very slowly. Before you know it, you’re back to square one with even more debt.
Based on the carbs and salt I’ve eaten in the prior 36 hours, my weight can vary within a 3-6 pound range. I have to weigh myself at the exact point each day to get a clear read. The amount of salt in everything is kind of insane….. bread, deli, ice cream…..
I was at a corporate function for 6 hours at Monmouth Park this past Saturday. Just for the hell of it, I just drank about 4 diet cokes and blew off everything else. Unlimited beer, wine, hamburgers, hot dogs and a sub. Nothing crazy, but I skipped everything and felt pretty good about myself afterwards. It wasn’t that difficult to do, but still kind of sad and depressing that I have reached this point..
BRT says:
June 27, 2023 at 3:08 pm
I would too. It’s just the way my schedule is in October through May, it will never happen until maybe my kids graduate high school. That being said, the take home message is, simple diet changes can make you go one way or the other.
Eat more vegetables. No sugar. No crappy oils. It goes a long way very quickly.
Reduce sugar for sure, average person consumes about 60 lbs annually. 100 years ago it was like only 4 lbs.
Only way to really lose weight quickly is to exhale more C02 via exercise and lot of it. Fat loss creates carbon dioxide which then binds to hemoglobin as red blood cells pass through the tissues and is released as the blood cells reach the lungs.
If you lose 10 pounds of fat, precisely 8.4 pounds comes out through your lungs as C02 and the remaining 1.6 pounds turns into water. In other words, nearly all the weight we lose is exhaled.
44,900 breaths to lose one pound, you average 20,00 per day normal respiration so just over 2 days to lose 1 lb via exhaling C02 and eating small amounts only.
Another Juice post full of cogent and insightful information. Seriously, how does this dude know all this shit?
Juice Box says:
June 27, 2023 at 4:37 pm
Reduce sugar for sure, average person consumes about 60 lbs annually. 100 years ago it was like only 4 lbs.
Only way to really lose weight quickly is to exhale more C02 via exercise and lot of it. Fat loss creates carbon dioxide which then binds to hemoglobin as red blood cells pass through the tissues and is released as the blood cells reach the lungs.
If you lose 10 pounds of fat, precisely 8.4 pounds comes out through your lungs as C02 and the remaining 1.6 pounds turns into water. In other words, nearly all the weight we lose is exhaled.
44,900 breaths to lose one pound, you average 20,00 per day normal respiration so just over 2 days to lose 1 lb via exhaling C02 and eating small amounts only.
Chi- I am a bit of hypochondriac/health nut now as I am well getting old. I get blood work every three months and see my doctor every three months whether I need it or not. Every year that passes I get closer in age to my father and uncles and aunts age when they passed which were caused by heart disease and pancreatic cancer. A few relatives died younger than I am now. Neither disease I wish to suffer from.
I normally do not use sugar in anything including coffee and tea and I don’t eat cake at parties or ice crème at home or sugary snacks although a nice piece of good chocolate is hard to pass up on, such as any British made chocolate which has a higher fat and cocoa content over anything made in the USA.
I try to eat healthy but as we all not it is not easy especially with children who rarely like healthy food no matter how it’s cooked.
BTW another interesting fact a glass of wine has 1 g of sugar and 4 grams of carbs. A beer has 0 g of sugar and 13 g of carbs. Which is better for you? Well overall calories in a bottle of wine is better for you than a six pack of beer as it’s 4 calories per gram of carbs and 4 calories per gram of sugar. I don’t drink allot of beer that is for sure unlike many men my age. I also do not drink hard stuff. I will have an occasional vodka drink if I have no other option.
I could exercise more. We all could….
I drink hard alcohol only. Limits the volume and calories.
Mostly scotch and raki.
Chi – I have been to Turkey. Raki is like for shots… You putting that stuff on ice?
Make sure you check yourself before your wreck it.. See my post above about seeing the doc every 90 days of so.. Not a bad habit, we all get older as well we have no choice.
I got a good ass man if you need one for a scope too.. Those are fun!!>
I’ll say it now since I am on my second glass of wine. This does not reflect on Grim or No One. It’s not personal just an observation..
Semaglutide? OK…. Take a look folks there are risks and unless you have a competent Docs and well lots of visits with blood work etc to make sure as many many thing are OK well things can go wrong.
Look it’s an appetite suppressant mostly.
Approved for pills etc?
Crap…..
I use the ass center in that old school building next to the Walgreen’s across from Foodtown on Broad Street by the railroad track. It is like an assembly line.
I am not a big fan of my primary, but I have been very consistent in working on my chemistry to make sure no issues. I was trending bad during COVID, but I am back on track.
Juice if you have a doc you like, I would consider it. I like my dentist and eye Dr.
Raki is an Albanian thing.
Appears my Ozempic comment went far.
Hopefully it continues to be a safe medication as it appears to help many.
Profitable as all hell if the side effects are minimal.