Recovery!

From CNBC:

Home prices rose for third straight month in April, S&P Case-Shiller index says

Home prices peaked last June, falling sharply through the beginning of this year. Now, they’re recovering steadily.

Home prices in April were still down 0.2% compared with April 2022, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index. They were, however, 0.5% higher month to month, after seasonal adjustments. Prices are now just 2.4% below their June 2022 peak.

Miami, Chicago, and Atlanta were still seeing big gains in April, with prices up 5.2%, 4.1% and 3.5% year over year, respectively. When compared with a year ago, the price declines were larger in April than in March in 17 of the top 20 index cities. Boston, San Francisco and Cleveland showed slight increases.

A major jump in mortgage rates last summer caused a decline in prices. But, rates are still high, and homebuyers appear to be adjusting to the new normal. Demand is strengthening.

“The ongoing recovery in home prices is broadly based,” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said in a release.

“If I were trying to make a case that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 had definitively ended in January 2023, April’s data would bolster my argument,” he added. “Whether we see further support for that view in coming months will depend on the how well the market navigates the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness.”

Before seasonal adjustments, prices rose in all 20 cities in April, as they had also done in March. Seasonally adjusted data showed prices rising in 19 cities in April versus 14 in March.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

78 Responses to Recovery!

  1. grim says:

    Semaglutide? OK…. Take a look folks there are risks and unless you have a competent Docs and well lots of visits with blood work etc to make sure as many many thing are OK well things can go wrong.

    Well, that’s the big risk here, right? The benefits are becoming more obvious day by day, but the risk profile, only time is going to tell. Clearly nobody is waiting.

    It’s got psychoactive effects, there is no doubt it is effecting the brain. Anyone thinking it works like a diabetes drug is far, far off the mark. The fact that we’re seeing alcoholics claim it’s eliminated their addiction is all the proof I need that it works on the brain in a pretty significant way. It’s a hormone, and we know what happens when you mess with those systems. They adapt, in significant ways. These should all be big red flags.

    But the bigger concern I have is coming off. Have been talking to the doctor about tapering off over months to minimize any rebound. The cold-turkey cutoff cases you read about online are all pretty similar, there is a very wicked rebound in weight. There is no protocol/recommendation for tapering. My plan, try to taper off. Hit the gym hard and focus on lean muscle mass to boost resting metabolism to try to counter the rebound.

  2. Fast Eddie says:

    Home prices peaked last June, falling sharply through the beginning of this year. Now, they’re recovering steadily.

    Not here. They never fell nor do they really. They climb, then plateau in so-called bad times and rise again. That 40% rocket over the last few years isn’t backing down. It’s back to 4% per year for a while. The entry for 1st time house buyers is the upper 400s for a shit cape in a so-so town. “Best and final by the end of the day” should be hard-coded into every contract.

  3. Juice Box says:

    Remember Phen Phen ? Yeah, everyone went fat again after it was taken off the market because it destroyed heart valves.

    Not to say this is not safe under proper care, but how many people are going to start popping the pill form like candy once it comes out?

    Article in the NY times quote.

    “I suspect there are a lot of people that are not using these treatments because it requires an injection,” said Dr. Robert Gabbay, the chief scientific and medical officer of the American Diabetes Association. “If you could say, ‘Well, actually, it doesn’t,’ that’s big.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/25/well/ozempic-pill-weight-loss.html

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When Boomers eventually hand off the tens of millions of homes they own, most of them won’t be in a state that younger buyers want: wsj.com/articles/buyin…

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Those once low cost locations that were supposed to be retirement communities. Avoid them like the f’ing plague. If this was the stock market, I would short the chit out of the locations with the highest concentrations of boomers.

  6. Hold my beer says:

    I went to Grimaldis pizzeria in Irving yesterday for lunch. It was delicious. They have a water filtration system to replicate New York City water.

  7. grim says:

    I honestly believe insurers are going to throw FUD all over the GLP-1 drugs because of how effective they are.

    Insurers are looking at an astronomical amount of people being prescribed an astronomically expensive class of drugs (these drugs are actually incredibly cheap to make and the R&D nowhere near justify the price).

    We’re already seeing this turn into a morality argument about this being a “lifestyle” drug, which is nonsensical. It’s an outrage that someone would take this drug to help them lose weight. Extension of the absurd argument that obesity itself is a morality issue.

    The long legacy of weight loss drugs fall into two very dangerous classes. Stimulants and Steroids. Shocker that we’re talking about hypertension and heart-related issues when prescribing folks stimulants. PhenFen? Racing heart rate, high blood pressure, all day long. GLP-1 aren’t even in the same universe as these historical drugs.

    My blood pressure is notably lower 3 months later. My heart rate is notably lower 3 months later. My resting heart rate is notably lower 3 months later. My cholesterol is notably lower 3 months later. My diet is far better, and more manageable.

    Aside from some wildcard long-term side effect (pancreatic cancer?) – I’m feeling that this is extending my life span, reducing my risk of cardiovascular issues.

  8. Juice Box says:

    Another weight loss drug in the pipeline with even better results.

    “24% of their body weight over the course of 48 weeks on the highest dosage.”

    Eli Lilly..Retatrutide is the drug won’t be out for a few years if ti clears trials and approvals.

    “Though retatrutide is in the same class as other weight loss medications, what sets it apart is that it targets three different hunger-regulating hormones. Ozempic and Wegovy are only glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists, which are a type of drug used to treat diabetes and weight loss. Mounjaro is a GLP-1 receptor agonist and mimics glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), which is a hormone that helps release food after eating. Retatrutide takes it a step further by also mimicking the glucagon receptor. Glucagon regulates glucose and lipid metabolism, which in turn promotes weight loss, according to a study published in the Journal of Clinical Insight. Retatrutide’s “triple G” effects may potentially be what’s setting it apart from similar medications. Mounjaro was shown to produce up to 22.5% of body fat reduction and semaglutide (the generic name for Wegovy and Ozempic) resulted in body fat reductions of up to 15%.”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/ariannajohnson/2023/06/27/what-to-know-about-retatrutide-unapproved-drug-boasts-greater-weight-loss-than-ozempic-mounjaro-wegovy/?sh=718f5e254db8

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wouldn’t insurance embrace people lowering weight? You would think so, but guess not.

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Is science killing obesity?

  11. Juice Box says:

    Grim – The celebrities are abusing it and have been for a while now, the call it an eating disorder in a needle. There is no shortage of doctors handing it out like candy to people who have no real need for it other than vanity.

    There are also plastic surgeons ready to cure you of “Ozempic face” by injecting you with fillers too.

  12. Juice Box says:

    Pumps – If every housewife starts taking Ozempic insurance will cease to exist. It is expensive around $1000 per month, as Grim said there is a nasty rebound once you are off the drug. Lose 40 lbs and you will most likely put back on 30 lbs right away once you are off the drug, so people will choose to stay on it forever.

    Let’s see which celebrity croaks first, there is a mental side effect that may push some people over the edge.

  13. 3b says:

    Juice: Apparently Ozempic causes butt sagging too. Didn’t know butt sagging was a thing!!

  14. Juice Box says:

    Here is our wsj article pumps.

    “Nobody Wants to Buy a Fixer-Upper Right Now
    Homes that need extensive renovations are scaring off already cash-strapped buyers, real-estate agents say”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/buying-homes-fixer-uppers-renovations-73e0202f?reflink=e2twmkts

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Assessing the health of the consumer has been a balancing act this year, making stock selection especially challenging. On the one hand, there is a lot working in the consumer’s favor these days…of course on the other hand, a lot isn’t.

    Just take a look at the labor market. Demand continues to outstrip supply and wages continue to grow—both good signs for the consumer. But on the flip side, jobless claims and layoffs are creeping up and inflation—while lower than last year—is still higher than usual.

    This means households aren’t feeling as flush as they were in prior years with higher costs eating into wage gains and a less robust job market having workers be more cautious over fears of a recession.”

  16. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Juice,

    Boomers were such an enormous population that they distorted the real estate market at every stage of their life.

  17. Juice Box says:

    3b – We are talking about massive weight loss here, there is plenty of sag to be cut out or filled in with fat removed from other parts of the body for plastic surgeons. It’s all part of the Ozempic packages they offer for $10,000 a month. Surgery price not included.

  18. 3b says:

    Juice: I guess people don’t want a saggy butt after losing all that weight. I would think some squats at the gym would take care of a saggy butt.

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, @ the tweet below. Those locations are f’ed. I was saying this would eventually happen in those “it” locations. They grew way too fast. Never ends well. Click on tweet for the chart.

    “The Airbnb collapse is real.

    Revenues are down nearly 50% in cities like Phoenix and Austin.

    Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hit hardest by the revenue collapse.”

    https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1673774695693385728?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Another reason north jersey real estate market is a safer place….it’s not a pool of airbnbs. People actually live in this housing.

  21. Juice Box says:

    Grim – Vegas Octagon might actually happen. Elon has been training.

    https://twitter.com/lexfridman/status/1673836162937417728

  22. No One says:

    Observations on semaglutide:
    My Dr. is pretty cautious. So far Ozempic has been pretty safe and used for over 5 years now for type 2. She won’t prescribe the newcomer Mounjaro because it hasn’t been out as long. She won’t prescribe off indication anyway.

    Between my weight/blood/age (over 50) she was predicting an 8% chance of heart attack or stroke in the next 10 years. And I kept inching closer to type 2 diabetes. If I can get my stats in a better place I could cut those odds in half and ward off the creep toward type 2. Plus improve my energy & fitness level, plus reduce the odds of other bad stuff correlated with obesity.

    Back in my 20s, 30s, even early 40s, I was able to diet and exercise my way back into acceptable shape, but the last few years after turning 50, my old tricks weren’t working. Someone 20 or 30, unless they’re morbidly obese, I wouldn’t recommend taking drugs you might need for another 60 years. Some people really can change their habits/eating/lifestyle and fix their problems, some can’t. Over 50, everything becomes a trade-off of risks and costs. I’m working on surviving the next 5- 10 years and maybe then there’s a better and even safer treatment. YoYo is my biggest concern, like Grim, I’m hoping to couple the weight loss with muscle building and elevating my sports/training activity. But I know from past experience of decades – my weight is either falling or it’s rising – it’s never just stayed the same, so I wouldn’t be surprised if I call up my Dr again 6 months off the treatment.

    Charles Barkley was in a place where any year he could have a stroke or heart attack.
    nypost.com/2022/02/16/charles-barkley-doesnt-want-to-die-on-tv-next-to-fat-ass-shaq/

    Coming up are studies to see if Semaglutide actually lowers total risk of death (for at-risk groups). So far the market is betting on a positive outcome, which would boost the likelihood of it being covered by more insurance plans, and being prescribed more often. But at current super high prices, insurers will likely mandate attempting a lot of cheaper stuff first.

  23. No One says:

    nypost.com/2023/05/30/charles-barkley-loses-62-pounds-after-taking-drug-mounjaro/
    “It’s been great, I’ve been starting to feel like a human being — not a fat-ass anymore. I want to lose — I can’t get to my playing weight, which was 250, but I’m gonna get to 270. My doctor told me, ‘There’s a lot of fat young people. There aren’t a lot of fat old people. They’re all dead!’”

  24. Chicago says:

    You’ve never seen a 60-year old former bikini babe smoker on the beach in a thong?

    3b says:
    June 28, 2023 at 9:15 am
    Juice: Apparently Ozempic causes butt sagging too. Didn’t know butt sagging was a thing!!

  25. BRT says:

    Is science killing obesity?

    I got news for you, science basically created obesity.

  26. Juice Box says:

    These weight loss drugs are going to be a blockbuster. Over 100 Billion in annual sales are the estimates. US drug sales today total $555 billion annually for everything else. Industry spends about $60 Billion a year in research.

  27. Boomer Remover says:

    How are all of you as fat as I am?

    The only other Cornell grad I know is a guy with 2% bodyfat who is on top of his intake, and so my brain automatically implicit bias framed Chi as same.

  28. BRT says:

    I remember 20 years ago, all the kids were hyped up on Ephedra and losing weight. They took it off the market after someone overdosed on it.

  29. 3b says:

    Chicago: Now that you mention it, I have!

  30. Phoenix says:

    Insurers are looking at an astronomical amount of people being prescribed an astronomically expensive class of drugs (these drugs are actually incredibly cheap to make and the R&D nowhere near justify the price).

    Capitalism. But like I said, no bad side effects notwithstanding, it will be a great seller.

    I know someone mentioned they knew a good ass pipe guy, I do as well, (lady actually) but I also know some that can engineer a good truss to support the saggy butt cheeks and droopy jowels.

  31. Phoenix says:

    Obesity in one photograph. SFW. Non Horrifying.

    https://shorturl.at/rxzT5

  32. Bystander says:

    3b,

    Not sure what to make of this guy the last few weeks. They pause to gather more data yet data is the same. He quickly follows it up with strong ‘2 rate hike’ rhetoric. What the h%ll is he trying to achieve? It is obvious that the markets don’t believe him. Should be 700 pts down on Dow after this speech but it won’t move. Strange times.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that there is still a risk of doing too little to bring down inflation, noting that that he wouldn’t take hiking interest rates at two consecutive policy meetings “off the table.”

    When asked during a panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking whether the Fed would proceed to raise rates every other meeting, Powell said, “We have not made a decision to go to that. It may work out that way. It may not work out that way. But I wouldn’t take, you know, moving at consecutive meetings off the table at all.”

    When asked whether he thought the risk was still doing too little, Powell replied, “yes.”

    Powell’s new comments about rate hikes come two weeks after the central bank decided to hold off raising rates at its last policy meeting in June while signaling rates could still rise to as high as 5.6%, implying two additional rate hikes are likely this year.

    Powell reiterated Wednesday at the central bank forum in Sintra, Portugal that most policy makers expect two more hikes, a point he also made last week while testifying before Congress.

    The Fed chair also underscored the central bank’s latest outlook for inflation, saying that he doesn’t see inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices getting back to 2% this year or next.

    “If you look at the data over the last quarter, what you see is stronger than expected growth, a tighter than expected labor market and higher than expected inflation,” said Powell. “So that tells us that although policy is restrictive, it may not be restrictive enough and it has not been restricted for long enough.”

  33. 3b says:

    Bystander: I have given up on trying to rationalize any of this, it makes no sense . I do agree that the market is ignoring the Fed, and does not believe Jerome’s tough talk. The Fed has no credibility. As for the rest of it, recession, no recession, the recession is over, take your pick. Market chugging along, housing up, even I believe new car sales are up. Credit card balances at an all time high,HELOC use increasing, yet tech firms laying off as wells as Wall Street firms here and there. AI will be coming for jobs, and yet no on seems to care. It’s surreal.

  34. chicagofinance says:

    JJ LIVES! (Semaglutides are passe Edition):

    Penis enlargement is on the rise: Filler shots are ‘all the rage now’

    By Ben Cost

    It’s the secret weapon in a different battle of the bulge: dissolvable penis injectables.

    “I feel like I’m holding a baseball bat,” Carlos M., 25, said while describing his post-filler phallus to The Post.

    The Bronx native — who asked that his full name not be revealed for privacy reasons — tacked on a whopping 1½ inches to his tallywacker by going to Lushful Aesthetics, a New York City-based cosmetic medicine company that, among other procedures, helps widen people’s willies.

    Carlos is one of many men who are sexpanding their horizons with injections of hyaluronic-acid-based penis fillers, which are nonsurgical, last for more than a year and are reversible, unlike more invasive implant techniques.

    The penis-plumping procedures have been around since 2016 in the millions-strong filler community — but popularity is swelling big time in 2023, experts told The Post.

    Penile enhancement pilgrims broaden their appendages by up to a half-inch per session, with some patients adding a whole two inches overall in a bid to boost confidence and improve their performance in the sack.

    And it’s not just the lesser-endowed who are seeking the total package.

    Ray Dexter, an NYC-based porn star, claims he added several inches to his circumference with penis injectables, which are also referred to as a “P-shot” in the filler community. Prices range from $11,000 to $20,000 for a full round of treatment, depending on the type or number of injections — it can take 10 to 20 syringes — and desired size.

    “My mid-shaft was in the 6- or 6½-inch range,” Ray Dexter, a Lushful Aesthetics client and gay porn star whose privates have spearheaded more than 4 million Google searches, told The Post.

    After receiving multiple filler treatments over several years, he claimed, his penis grew to “about 7½ inches” … around.

    “I think it had a positive effect on my career,” Dexter proclaimed.

    Just like the patients’ phalluses, the appeal is ever-widening.

    “This is all the rage right now,” declared Lushful Aesthetics founder Dr. Chris Bustamante, a certified doctorate nurse practitioner specializing in aesthetic medicine whose clients range from working stiffs to, well, porn stars.

    “This procedure is just starting to come to light,” said Bustamante, better-known as “Injector Chris” to his 16,500 Instagram followers. “A lot of people don’t even know this really exists.”

    William Moore, a co-founder of the Dallas-based enhancement firm PhalloFILL, said he started in 2020 by injecting friends and people whom he knew.

    He now has 16 franchises nationwide, with people from Los Angeles to Detroit and Miami apparently clamoring to get — as the fans of Hollywood’s serial ladykiller Pete Davidson call it — that “big d – – k energy.”

    “Guys hang great,” said PhalloFILL co-founder William Moore. “And when they walk around the gym, they hang. And one guy said, ‘I lay down and my d – – k lays down beside me.’ “

    The secret to the revolutionary procedure? Hyaluronic acid, a chemical found in eye and joint fluid that makes it more biocompatible than silicone and other implants.

    “The advantages of using the hyaluronic acid filler for this procedure are the safety profile because hyaluronic acid is naturally in your body,” Dr. David Shafer, a double board-certified and award-winning New York City plastic surgeon, told The Post.

    He invented SWAG, or the Shafer Width and Girth procedure, which uses, among other ingredients, Voluma gel that is FDA-approved for the chin and cheeks — but used for upping penis volume and doing for phalluses what augmentation does for breasts. (The latter is considered an “off-label” use of the injectable that is not yet approved by the FDA.)

    Prices range from $11,000 to $20,000 for a full round of treatment, depending on the type or number of injections and desired size, from small to extra large.

    Depending on the patient’s preference, this can require 10 to 20 syringes of filler. While the results begin instantly, the full effects won’t be seen (and felt) for about two weeks, and intercourse is discouraged for 48 hours after the surgery.

    Hyaluronic acid also has a “special bonding between the molecules” that can make the treatment last up to two years, according to Shafer, who claimed he went from seeing around four patients a month in 2016 to 20 this week alone.

    SWAG is minimally invasive, taking only around 15 to 20 minutes to fill up two injection sites and only requiring topical anesthetics, such as lidocaine — the same local painkiller used for mosquito bites.

    Most appealingly, the phallus-fluffing technique is completely reversible.

    “If the patient didn’t like it or wanted to modify the result or had any other issues, there’s a special enzyme we have called hyaluronidase, which we can inject” to dissolve it, according to Shafer.

    Patients can also wait it out, as “products are temporary, meaning that their body metabolizes them over time,” said the cosmetic doc. “So it’s different than somebody like the cat lady who has a facelift that looks abnormal, and now she’s stuck with it.”

    Fillers have seemingly come a long way from other dubious girthing methods, including transplanting abdominal fat onto the penis, which can cause scarring, unevenness and erectile dysfunction.

    There’s also the Penuma, a subcutaneous silicone sleeve whose side effects can include erosion or adhesion, where the implant “might stick to the skin inside the penis” or wear away the penile tissue, potentially causing infection, per the Mayo Clinic.

    Meanwhile, Moore described treating one patient who received silicone injections in Tijuana, Mexico, in 2018.

    “I can’t even describe to you what his penis looked like,” said the PhalloFILL boss, who said it was “bumpy” and “fragmented” like “rock candy.”

    As with equivalent procedures for other body parts, these phallic Frankensteins are sometimes created in back-alley clinics without the supervision of board-certified surgeons or urologists.

    Meanwhile, so-called length-enhancing procedures — such as cutting the ligament above the penis — can paradoxically shorten one’s member.

    On the other hand, widening ironically increases length because if “you have that weight constantly pulling down, you do get some increase in the flash of length,” said Shafer. “And many patients also report a slight increase in the erect length as well.”

    “The first treatment we do is usually about 10 syringes,” said Dr. David Shafer, while describing his SWAG treatment. “So each syringe is 1 cc, so it’s about 2 tablespoons full of product that we put. Most patients should plan on two treatments to get to their goal.”

    “That’s 0.25 to 0.3 inches increase per treatment [around six syringes],” declared the filler honcho, who claimed one patient got so big he felt like his penis was laying beside him.

    This behemoth bulge can last approximately three years with maintenance, but he recommends topping off one’s manhood every year to keep it at full mast.

    SWAG mastermind Shafer, who also advises getting annual upkeep injections, puts it like this: “[When] you fill your gas tank with gas, you don’t wait for it to go to empty before you fill up … again.”

    In other words, patients don’t want the Hulk turning back into Bruce Banner during a big moment.

    Post-plumping care is also essential — especially due to potential bruising and swelling following treatment — with Lushful Aesthetics’ Bustamante imposing a hard rule of “24 hours of no touching or engaging the penis” beyond “going to the bathroom.”

    Meanwhile, customers should abstain from sex for two weeks, per Bustamante, although Shafer said SWAG patients can make whoopee after 48 hours.

    “We don’t promise any increase in length,” said Shafer. “But if you have that weight constantly pulling down, you do get some increase in the flaccid length. And many patients also report a slight increase in the erect length as well.”

    “I think you have a bit more partner satisfaction,” PhalloFILL client John, 60, who gained an inch of girth over three treatments, told The Post. “The simple fact that it is thicker, it speaks for itself.”

    Moore claimed that size is essential for good sex as a “3½-inch circumference penis” isn’t big enough to create the “stretch that it needs to create on the clitoris” to “have a good orgasm.”

    “I think that is total bulls – – t: that it’s not the size, it’s the motion,” he declared. “I totally disagree.”

    That is crucial for postnatal hanky-panky when “everything’s just a little bit looser” and requires a “tighter fit,” Shafer added.

    The perks apparently aren’t just physiological.

    “It definitely gave me this confidence boost,” declared Lushful Aesthetics patient Carlos M., who felt his penis was on the “skinnier side” before treatment. “I just feel a lot more sexually liberated, if that makes sense.”

    A case in point regarding the mental benefits is adult actor Dexter, who said he “always had a large penis growing up” but “wanted to get bigger.”

    Since starting penis fillers several years ago, the OnlyFans creator has taken 70 syringes of filler — of which 34 were administered by Bustamante, he claimed — causing his member to balloon from around 6½ to 7½ inches in circumference.

    And while the effect on his career is unclear, Dexter said he was personally very “happy” with it and that “80 to 85% of my fans were very happy for me. The other 15 [percent] that weren’t were the haters.”

    Penis fillers are not without downsides, which, along with the exorbitant cost of “inflation,” include rare but serious complications such as necrosis, or tissue death, from accidental injections into a blood vessel.

    And not everyone’s eligible for the procedure, with SWAG specifically prohibiting smokers and people on blood thinners — and patients with so-called “micropenises” are, somewhat ironically, viewed as poor candidates.

    “We could give very moderate improvement, but you need to have space to put the filler,” said Shafer. “If there’s no canvas, you can’t really paint the painting.”

    And while hyaluronic acid penis fillers perhaps represent a major breakthrough, methods are still evolving.

    “We’re constantly modifying what we do,” Shafer declared. “It’s not something where we’re just stuck in one point in time. We’re on the forefront of this treatment, and we’re doing everything we can to maximize the results for the patient.”

  35. chicagofinance says:

    You are thinking of leftwing…..

    Boomer Remover says:
    June 28, 2023 at 11:02 am
    How are all of you as fat as I am?

    The only other Cornell grad I know is a guy with 2% bodyfat who is on top of his intake, and so my brain automatically implicit bias framed Chi as same.

  36. 3b says:

    Chgo; Maybe that’s where the HELOC money is going to!

  37. Phoenix says:

    Every part of the American government is losing credibility.

    3b says:
    June 28, 2023 at 1:45 pm
    Bystander: I have given up on trying to rationalize any of this, it makes no sense . I do agree that the market is ignoring the Fed, and does not believe Jerome’s tough talk. The Fed has no credibility. As for the rest of it, recession, no recession, the recession is over, take your pick. Market chugging along, housing up, even I believe new car sales are up. Credit card balances at an all time high,HELOC use increasing, yet tech firms laying off as wells as Wall Street firms here and there. AI will be coming for jobs, and yet no on seems to care. It’s surreal.

  38. chicagofinance says:

    I received a letter from the IRS yesterday. My blood pressure hits the fucking roof…… WTF now? It was a snail mail comfirm that I had registered on their authentication service about 3 weeks ago. FUCK! FUCK! FUCK! I didn’t need that…….. I need a drink.

  39. No One says:

    Chifi,
    Tax identity theft? What’s the problem?

    I’m guessing RFK Jr does the SWAG treatment above.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Clifton and Jersey City were nominated as two of the 100 best places to live, according to town ranking website Livability.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Homebuyers need to make $107,300 per year to afford the average U.S. home (up 46% from a year ago), per Redfin.

    The report also finds that homebuyers in 45 major metro areas need over $100,000 per year to afford the average home (this is up from 16 metro areas a year ago)

    This housing affordability crisis underlines the importance of sustainable and inclusive economic policies. Steps should be taken to ensure homeownership remains within reach for everyone, not just the well-off. It’s a wake-up call for policymakers to consider housing reforms that can control escalating prices and make the housing market more equitable.”

  42. Phoenix says:

    “Homebuyers need to make $107,300 per year to afford the average U.S. home (up 46% from a year ago), per Redfin.

    200k if they want to buy from Fast Eddie.🤣

  43. 3b says:

    Phoenix: 200k each.

  44. Phoenix says:

    If I were a judge, I would fine this guy 50 million dollars, then take a 10 lb mallet to both of his ankles and wrists.
    Then let his injuries heal untouched in prison for the next 5 years.

    Munitions company CEO faces $32k fine for cutting down THIRTY-TWO of his New Jersey neighbor’s trees ‘to improve view of NYC skyline’ from his $1.75M mansion
    Grant Haber is said to have violated local law when he had 32 mature trees belonging to his neighbor removed
    Haber, who founded a munitions company, has been issued a fine over his actions after he hired men to cut down trees on the property of Samih Shinway
    He is said to have hired the men to clear the woodland so he could have a better view of the New York City skyline

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    By,

    This makes sense.

    “Powell has come along way from “inflation is transitory”, but he also lies.

    My bet, CPI will be weak sauce and both Powell and animal spirits are front-running that print. It’s all theatre. Again, they need inflation to help deflate US Govt Debt.”

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    NEWS: Ambrosia aims to make the production of allulose, a next-generation sugar replacement, more scalable and affordable by leveraging Gingko’s platform.

    $DNA

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Man, DNA is going to be having royalties coming from every direction. They are the materials company of tomorrow.

  48. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yesterday they announced a partnership with a startup to take the bite out of hard alcohol and make it smooth. I mean, they have their hands in everything.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Holy sh*t! The numbers this morning were INSANE!

    ✅Personal savings JUMPS to 4.2% (disposable)
    ✅GDP Q1 revised UP to 2.0% vs 1.4% expected
    ✅GDP Q1 prices DOWN to 4.1% vs 4.2% expected
    ✅Jobless claims & continuing claims miss (slightly).

    #RecessionCancelled

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Roaring 20s 2.0 is a f’ing beast. Throw a pandemic, inflation, and high rates at the beast….won’t stop!

  51. Juice Box says:

    Air Quality getting bad again around here today with the Canadian Wildfire Smoke.

    https://www.google.com/maps/@40.3668416,-74.2095822,9z/data=!5m1!1e9?entry=ttu

  52. ExEx says:

    Say goodbye to affirmative action .

  53. chicagofinance says:

    Keep an eye on the Ten at 385. We have distortions obviously as we are starting down a Friday, month-end, quarter-end. However, we are pushing a level we haven’t seen since March and we are also at resistance. If we head into the 390’s, then 400 or more might be in the offing. We maxed out at only 425-430 last November.

    I am still mystified by the attitude of so many that these rates are elevated. Short rates maybe, but once you go out to five years, it is pretty reasonable by historical standards. It is a reverse engineered argument. People are evaluating asset prices (all assets), and these rates can’t justify their bullshit valuations, so there is bellyaching.

  54. chicagofinance says:

    Is that a Billy Joel song?

    ExEx says:
    June 29, 2023 at 10:24 am
    Say goodbye to affirmative action .

  55. Juice Box says:

    Ex – It has been banned in Liberal California since 1996. Proposition 209 and a second Proposition 16 was rejected by voters in 2020.

  56. Phoenix says:

    450k to fly into outer space. live started at 11. virgin galactic.

    Go billionaire go.

  57. Fast Eddie says:

    Searching through various towns and there is just nothing appealing and nothing to choose. Even the East Side and Hillcrest sections of Paterson are looking scarce. Here’s your best shot at $2,700 per month in PITI:

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/paterson/89-91-lenox-ave-paterson-nj-07502–2190092732

  58. Fast Eddie says:

    Totowa, a few blocks from Paterson; 3bd, 1bth, on the market a week and I bet under contract over list because, it’s the best you can do at $3,500 per month:

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/totowa/110-gordon-ave-totowa-nj-07512–2006613602

  59. No One says:

    Ex Ex, what do you think about how the universities have been looking at race?

    I think too many schools do injustice to individuals by lumping them into racial groups that they want to favor or disfavor. Seems like a lot of schools make racial group membership the most important factor determining the likelihood of a given applicant’s acceptance, holding other factors constant.

    I’m amazed that over the past 40 years, the one-time ideal of judging people on their individual merits, without reference to their race, has increasingly been declared by many to be “racist” or “supporting white supremacy”.

  60. chicagofinance says:

    IRS said “oops” WTF?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!

    Unbelievable.

    No One says:
    June 28, 2023 at 2:58 pm
    Chifi,
    Tax identity theft? What’s the problem?

  61. ExEx says:

    I’m a minority….just not the “right one ” to gain any advantages besides really good rye bread.

  62. Brt says:

    When I taught at Ridge, the top 20 Asian students could run circles academically around Harvard, Princeton, and MIT students. Only 3 out of the 80 I had were admitted to Ivies there. One took AP physics and Calc in 7th grade. The other was the best golfer in the state. The other was the best clarinet. Meanwhile, 80 percent of the low IQ class at Lawrenceville prep is admitted to Ivies. Dropping 300k on your kids high school tab is a payoff to get your kid into these schools.

    A colleague of mine just finished up a year at a private high school in NJ after 30 years in public. He said, the staff found out they actually forge the transcripts of kids and give them fake grades for classes they didn’t even take. One teacher brought it up and was fired. So, now, when they say the average GPA admitted to these schools is so high, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s bad data. Also sheds light on the push to eliminate the SATs from admission consideration.

    I said this before but Cornell and Duke recognized the hotspot of talent and admitted nearly all of them.

  63. joyce says:

    Jersey Shore town’s parking tickets surge 1,600% after switch to app
    https://www.nj.com/cape-may-county/2023/06/jersey-shore-towns-parking-tickets-surge-1600-after-switch-to-app.html

    Stone Harbor Police Chief Thomas J. Schutta told the borough’s council that 564 parking tickets were issued in May – the first month the town began using the ParkMobile app – up from 33 tickets in May 2022. Parking is free in the off season months.

    Signs are posted around paid parking areas with five-digit codes and time may be purchased and renewed remotely in various increments along with a 30-cent transaction fee for each purchase. The app sends alerts when time is about to expire.

    A member of Stone Harbor’s borough council questioned during a recent meeting whether police were “too strict” in writing tickets under the new system. The police chief said “absolutely not,” and pointed out that officers in 2022 were issuing more warnings than tickets.

    “This system allows us to more seamlessly enforce (parking laws),” Schutta told the borough council on June 20.

    Schutta and other borough officials did not immediately return calls and emails Thursday seeking comment on the new system.

  64. No One says:

    BRT,
    I remember you writing about this in the past. My daughter is 1/2 white, half Asian, but for uni applications decided it was safest to enroll as white, exactly because of the anti-Asian discrimination in the most selective schools.

    My wife is a former colleague of one of the guys who sued Harvard for anti-Asian discrimination a few years back. He’s definitely happy about the decision.

    I wonder how this decision will actually be implemented at schools, and what effect it may have on the corporate DEI movement.

    The funny thing is that when applying to selective universities, saying you’re Asian almost always hurts your application, but after you graduate and are looking for jobs, if you are applying to a company who thinks it has too many white employees, saying you’re Asian might help you. My company seems desperate to reduce the percentage of white male employees, for example.

  65. ExEx says:

    Insane. I’ve seen it myself out here BRT.
    The system is deeply flawed and corrupt.

  66. 3b says:

    Tomorrow SCOTUS will rule on the student loan forgiveness.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lmao…yup.

    “The only profession scummier than options market maker and politician is real estate salesperson.”

  68. BRT says:

    I’ve advised all my students not to check that box because if these applications n re electronically sorted, they can at least bypass that step of being thrown in the trash based on race. And I know it happens.

    When you have a kid, who is literally qualified to make the claim of best student in the nation…AP Physics C & Calc BC by 8th grade, and represents the US in the Physics Olympiad as a sophomore (also qualified to represent the US in Bio/Chem the same year) and winner of every national math competition. He should be getting into every single school. Yes, he got into Harvard/MIT. Columbia, Brown, Stanford rejected him. Because they threw his application in the trash before ever looking at it for checking off a box.

  69. Chicago says:

    He got into Harvard & MIT. Did he want to go to any of the other schools? Knowing those other schools, I can see that. You know the schools talk to each other, right? In reality, the kid should get into one school, and hopefully it is their top choice. The rest is ego gratification. You know every slot is one offer not given to someone else.

    BRT says:
    June 29, 2023 at 9:18 pm
    Yes, he got into Harvard/MIT. Columbia, Brown, Stanford rejected him. Because they threw his application in the trash before ever looking at it for checking off a box.

  70. Chicago says:

    BTW. Regardless of your anger, these schools are overstuffed with Asian students, and I hate to stereotype, but they self-segregate from other groups in large packs. My friends from the old neighborhood freely admit it, and they frankly think it is amusing, and further that there is nothing wrong with it.

    My junior year apt, we had two guys who reflexively backed each other on anything against the other four. I called it the Asian alliance. The bias runs deep. You would know better than me why.

  71. Very Stable Genius says:

    It’s sad that

    “a kid who is literally qualified to make the claim of best student in the nation…AP Physics C & Calc BC by 8th grade, and represents the US in the Physics Olympiad as a sophomore (also qualified to represent the US in Bio/Chem the same year) and winner of every national math competition”

    renders it all worthless unless getting praise and recognition from all the Ivys.

  72. BRT says:

    Was in Wall today prior to Asbury Park. The traffic in town is worse than I remember all those years. I guess all those new transplants into those townhomes is leading to some congestion.

  73. BRT says:

    VSG, that wasn’t the point.

    On any sort of system that would make a fraction of sense, there’s no college that shouldn’t admit that student over the thousands they choose to each year. The kid was a top 20 student in 4 separate subject areas in the country as a Sophomore. Nobody else even makes 2 as a senior.

    Kid’s going to be fine. But the system in place is a joke.

  74. BRT says:

    He got into Harvard & MIT. Did he want to go to any of the other schools? Knowing those other schools, I can see that. You know the schools talk to each other, right? In reality, the kid should get into one school, and hopefully it is their top choice. The rest is ego gratification. You know every slot is one offer not given to someone else.

    Fair point, but I wouldn’t know why he chose to apply to others. Maybe it was uncertainty in the air. Kid didn’t have much of an ego. He stuck around to do 4 years of high school just to be with his friends.

  75. BRT says:

    The self segregating thing is becoming less and less true each year from what I can see. They’ve always formed tight communities. Probably just continuing the trend at college. Moreover, the amount of half asians in these school systems has exploded in the past 15 years. They aren’t part of the alliance. They march to the beat of their own drum. They didn’t exist nearly as much 15 years ago. They are still treated like full asians as far as admissions go.

    I’m not really one to speak for it though. Despite the fact that I’m half asian, I don’t live up to any of their behavioral stereotypes, neither did anyone in my family other than maybe one of my cousins.

  76. Chicago says:

    Another interesting observation I had was how offended my buddies were when a white guy poached one of theirs. Especially the Koreans. I guess I’ve had it so instinctively drilled into my head as taboo that I’ve never hooked up out of respect. That said, it is really closed minded, but not inconsistent with my earlier rant.

  77. BRT says:

    To some degree, that’s the way it was in every culture. Same goes for my grandmother’s parents. English guy, Irish girl, wasn’t very popular move in the family at the time. But the more time goes on and how awful the dating scene has become, I’m pretty sure most parents would just be happy to see their kids end up with anyone respectable.

    The race thing is non-existent with me. My kids are Chinese, Italian, English, Irish, Polish, Lithuanian. They have no tribe.

  78. Boomer Remover says:

    Next step? Self ticketing parking meters. You park in the clearly marked designated spot and use app to pay for parking. As soon as time runs out, and after a short grace period thereafter, the parking meter takes a picture of your plate and issues a summons.

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