From CNBC:
Goldman Sachs cuts odds of a U.S. recession in the next year
Goldman Sachs revised down the odds of a U.S. recession happening in the next 12 months, cutting the probability down to 20% from 25% on the back of positive economic activity.
The investment bank’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, cited a slew of better-than-expected economic data in a research report released Monday.
“The main reason for our cut is that the recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession,” he said.
The chief economist cited resilient U.S. economic activity, saying second-quarter GDP growth was tracking at 2.3%. The rebound in consumer sentiment and unemployment levels falling to 3.6% in June also added to Goldman’s optimism.
The U.S. economy expanded 2% at an annualized pace in the first quarter. Last Thursday, data from the Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims fell to 239,000 for the week ended June 24, well below estimates of 264,000 and marking a 26,000 decline from the previous week.
There are also “strong fundamental reasons” to expect the easing of consumer price rises to continue after June’s core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose at the slowest pace since February 2021.
The investment bank, however, expects some deceleration in subsequent quarters as a result of sequentially slower real disposable personal income growth.
“But the easing in financial conditions, the rebound in the housing market, and the ongoing boom in factory building all suggest that the U.S. economy will continue to grow, albeit at a below-trend pace,” Hatzius said.
Home owners have an extra $10 Trillion of equity in their homes, since the pandemic. So, homeowners really don’t have to stop spending. Because if money gets low they can just tap that equity. And they aren’t afraid to do so, because they know rates will come down in the future.
So, maybe the sky isn’t falling?
Nobody is “tapping equity” at these rates.
Average rate for a HELOC right now is 8.6%.
Economy is sizzling hot! Easy Biden re-election
I agree, grim, I wouldn’t touch it. I also wouldn’t touch a high car loan or high cc rate, yet these fools line up. You just never know.
The most expected recession in history hasn’t come yet. Shocker. Lol
The firms—Deloitte, Ernst & Young, KPMG and PricewaterhouseCoopers—are facing the consequences of aggressive hiring over the past two years as the pandemic spurred higher demand for consulting in areas such as corporate strategy, coupled with lower attrition than they expected during the first half of the year.
The recent rounds of layoffs have been heavily focused on the advisory sides of the firms. KPMG laid off about 5% of its U.S. staff in June—including advisory, tax and back-office people—four months after cutting some advisory personnel, nearly 2% of U.S. staff. In April in the U.S., Deloitte cut 1.5% of its staff and EY 5%. Outside the Big Four, Grant Thornton let go 3% of its U.S. staff in May.
While hiring soared in the wake of the pandemic, other data sets show exits were also rising. In the U.S. at the four firms, exits—both voluntary and not—have generally climbed each year since at least 2019, according to a review of online professional profiles by Revelio Labs, a provider of workplace data. In 2022, roughly 56,600 people collectively left the firms, up 8.3% from a year earlier in the Revelio data.
But that scenario flipped this year, even amid layoffs. Exits at the four big firms have dropped, falling 11.6% through June from the year-earlier period, to about 21,400 in the U.S., according to Revelio. “Life became more flexible and folks have found reasons to stay where they might have been ground to a fine powder prior years,” said Michael Shaub, an accounting professor at Texas A&M University, referring to remote work and salary increases that might have kept some from resigning this year. “Now the firms are saying we can’t keep all these people.”
MacBook Air….what memory level would you go with?
Woops:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/europeans-poorer-inflation-economy-255eb629?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
“Karim Bouazza, a 33-year-old nurse who was stocking up on half-price meat and fish for his wife and two children, complained that inflation means “you almost need to work a second job to pay for everything.”
“Vivek Trivedi, a 31-year-old anesthesiologist living in Manchester, England, earns about £51,000 ($67,000) per year for a 48-hour workweek. Inflation, which has been about 10% or higher in the U.K. for nearly a year, is devouring his monthly budget, he says. Trivedi said he shops for groceries in discount retailers and spends less on meals out. Some colleagues turned off their heating entirely over recent months, worried they wouldn’t be able to afford sharply higher costs, he said.”
Pumps – Typical of Apple engineering these days MacBook Air memory cannot be upgraded later, they call it unified memory because the CPU and GPU share it. If you plan on running allot of video processing then more the better if you plan on keeping it for a longer amount of time, it will future proof it a bit and might save a hardware swap down the road.
+ $200.00 for the 16 GB
+ $400.00 for the 24 GB
16gb is minimum you should choose for a mac right now – that’ll ensure a longer usable life.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that you can stretch 7 years out of a mac (before they obsolete the OS updates for the model).
I just got rid of my mid-2011 27″ iMac. Honestly, it was still a perfectly usable Kitchen Desk machine. The only catch, no more OS updates. 12 years out of that machine makes it a bargain.
HELOC – not sure on that. I realize every cries poverty when having home conversation. Still my boss mentioned HELOC for daughters wedding in two weeks. Half families around me seems to be expanding homes since can’t afford moving. I have to believe some of them are using HELOCs as a few are teachers.
Thanks, guys.
When I was working in the lab in 2000, we kept turning a bunch of computers that were old into Linux computers and extended their lifetime another 4 to 5 years.
Bystander: HELOC to pay for a wedding? People appear to have gone mad, and still spending. And yet there are still layoffs in the finance/ tech area. The narrative now is all is well, no recession, or if we had one it is over, mortgage interest rates don’t matter, and credit card balances continue to rise. Does it go on like this, or does it blow up?
As I look at my 401K which is increasing exponentially, I ask myself the same question.
I still sit at 70/30 because that’s where my sentiment lays. In my IRAs, I’ve been at 100% for a while.
If interest rates weren’t so high, I would take the money I just made on this rally and would use half of it to pay off the remainder of the mortgage (which is about 1/3rd the value of the home). But unfortunately, all of those gains are in retirement accounts. I only put 100K of the home sale into the market and 10K of it is in a t-bill. The other 90 is split between Ingredion and SoFi, the latter, is going bonkers. INGR is the anchor.
Lib: It makes no sense to me, but when it breaks, and at some point it will, there will be a whole lot of cries of we did not know, and it’s not our fault. And in the meantime more and more companies are adopting AI tools, just to assist employees of course, not replace them. LOL!
I sold my place in NJ last month. All the money is parked in CDs at the moment. I don’t care if there is a recession or not. The low housing inventory helped sell my place. Too much overhead in NJ.
Exactly why I bailed on my multi and plan to move to Vegas within a year.
Then split time between Costa Rica and LV.
Heloc is a viable option if you plan to stay in your home.
And things with my JFK parking just got more interesting.
Apparently, when I pre-booked my parking on June 16th, the Port Authority charged my credit card $300. When I left the facility on July 5th, EZ Pass of NJ charged me an additional $507. So my two weeks of parking at the long-term lot in JFK cost me a measly $807!
Will get on the phone with them tomorrow to straighten it all out.
I can’t imagine how many people don’t look at the credit card statements and are about to lose hundreds of dollars.
I also have some Vegas charges to straighten out.
If you don’t use the proceeds for home improvement, then you are not supposed to deduct the interest. Of course the is the $10K SALT thing
ExEx says:
July 18, 2023 at 11:37 am
Heloc is a viable option if you plan to stay in your home.
Libturd,
What are the LV to Costa Rica flight options?
I don’t know 3b. The whole world has gone crazy. The only thing not on fire is white collar job market. Two interviews last week and both duds when comp was discussed It is truly pathetic time for tech workers
Bystander: I honestly don’t know. It’s like living in the upside down world. Meanwhile, Goldman cuts chances of a recession to 20 percent.
It smells..the whole world. If my income does not rise then I cut back. Double electricity delivery rates – I shut off second beer fridge and cut pool pump to run low speed. Happily clean debris off top, only need to turn over water. SR raises food prices 80% and I shop at Aldi’s for 1/2 price People want 500/night for Airbnb vacation condo. I will patiently wait and watch. Seeing capitulation already with 3 weeks to Co trip. 150 night now for resort condo. Car rental wants 1000/week then I find cheapest code from Flyertalk and cut it in half. Let’s see if your low paid employees check if I work for University of Texas. Sorry but incomes don’t justify these insane prices. Simply will have to be vigilant and wait. Same with home. Would love to finish walk up attic for kids but I ain’t competing with every person. I am hearing the horror stories of waiting in architects, permits and contractors for months. It will collapse. Mark it down soon
My one luxury is concerts but unless find absolutely great deals then skip it. Billy Strings and Goose? Two acts I would love to see but not spending 180/ticket. Wait..I think the impatience and arrogance of consumer at all time high. Everything is a can’t lose prospect. Taylor Swift is worth 3k a ticket of course. My home value can only go up by doing major reno for 300k. My investments are amazing bc so smart. My job will pay me so much this year or I will leave. Cards..house of cards
12:11 thanks for that.
We’ll more than likely be here a while. Which is fine with me.
I literally have the best breezes known to mankind.
AAA will not renew the auto and home insurance policies for some customers in Florida, joining a growing list of insurers dialing back their presence in the Sunshine State amid a growing risk of natural disasters.
“Unfortunately, Florida’s insurance market has become challenging in recent years,” the company said in a statement emailed to CBS MoneyWatch. “Last year’s catastrophic hurricane season contributed to an unprecedented rise in reinsurance rates, making it more costly for insurance companies to operate.”
AAA declined to say how many customers won’t have their policies renewed, saying only that the change will affect “a small percentage” of policy holders.
One stop in Houston or Dallas dependent on airline.
As it grows, so will the flight.
Libturd,
Costa Rica would of course be nice for the weather and proximity to the US. I am currently in Germany. Good weather this summer anyway. Great first world healthcare and quality of life. Travel an hour in any direction and I’ll be somewhere interesting. Cost of living is not the cheapest however.
Germany is cool. I’ve flown through there many times and had quite a few open-minded and intelligent friends from there when I was in college. I am half-German and think and behave like one. If you saw how many dishes I can get into my dishwasher, you would appreciate it. I always think one step ahead when working. I also enjoy IKEA furniture assembly.
Verstehst du?
“Apparently, when I pre-booked my parking on June 16th, the Port Authority charged my credit card $300.”
Why would you do that? Just Uber-ed your trip to JFK right now and it’s 105 bucks….
“Bystander says: I don’t know 3b. The whole world has gone crazy….3b says: Bystander: I honestly don’t know. It’s like living in the upside down world. Meanwhile, Goldman cuts chances of a recession to 20 percent.”
I think your personal white collar situation is impacting your views. ByS, your sector/you have been in an unending recession since I arrived here…meanwhile, kids from colleges ranked lower than USNWR 100 are walking out into starter jobs at $90k…that is all brand new money into the economy.
“As it grows, so will the flight.”
This is a good thing?
You come Lib, but keep the rest of those Jersey assholes that will arrive telling the locals that their pizza sucks and whining about bagels to keep the fuck out. Like a descending plague.
Left: I perhaps view the economy in a different light. I do t see the current environment as sustainable, based on a number of factors that I have noted repeatedly. It is not sustainable in my view. Kind of like putting new wall paper over a damaged wall.
Lots of cheer leading out there that all is well, and at some point when it’s revealed that it’s not, and it falls apart, then those same cheer leaders will be crying that something has to be done. Meanwhile, the prudent get noting. Maybe that’s just the way it is now. But it’s not capitalism, but that’s for another discussion.
left,
You generalize something in area where you do not work. Very few kids are getting 90k off the street. That is pretty made -up. You have some kind of skewed bias on tech area. JCer and I have been over this so it is not just me. I am saying it is alot harder to move up from 125k to 150k or 150k to 200k and assuredly the 2021-2022 of software developers getting paid 250k in now over. The sector is hurting. My own IB has no hire policy all year. We are down 16 people. People working weeekends. If jobs were on trees then these people would not be working weekends to support crazy release schedules. Believe what you want but stop pretending you what is happening.
BREAKING NEWS!
Michigan announced felony charges against 16 people in connection with a false elector scheme to overturn Donald Trump’s election loss in 2020.
Tuesday, July 18, 2023 4:49 PM ET
Each of the 16 defendants has been charged with eight felony counts, including forgery and conspiracy to commit forgery. Those charged include Meshawn Maddock, a Trump ally and the co-chair of the Michigan Republican Party at the time.
How about it grim? You be the mediator here. Kind of tired of trying to explain to left regarding IT job market. He believes it is me alone. Perhaps he is right. Do you think hiring is strong? Lay-offs not impacting people? Easy to get equal job quickly. Are people getting paid higher than two years ago? Are employers paying 250k for full stack developer in US now? How easy of time would getting paid 250K (base not total comp) as tech product manager with 10 + years exp, non-front office tech?
Daughter just returned from a 3 week study abroad program in Berlin.
She had the time of her life. Also got to see some places of interest relevant to her own German grandparents’ history.
My 26 year old BIL got $150K to do data analysis for a military contractor. Prior to finishing his masters in data science he was a jewelry salesman.
I understand he is on a 1-2 year contact only.
Four day workweek too. Does his work and is on a train back to LIC on Thursday.
I know people on work visas out of coder boot camps who are 130K base plus some stupid amount of equity. One guy exercised and bought a place in south america, but was blindsided by the taxes due.
Each above is paying $4,500 rent. Some dope with a deed is the final boss great equalizer for both of these folks.
SFW, but you have to see this one. Or these two I should say. “I’m a nurse.”
Yeah, I know this type, and how the PoPo treats everyone different. It’s long, so skip around. Watching all of the “heroes” come in to see Bambi in the PoPo station.
You just know what would have happened had their been no body cameras like in the past.
https://youtu.be/hqRnvMBDFtw?t=1381
…excluding food and energy
In other words, if you’re dead, everything else is quite affordable.
The investment bank, however, expects some deceleration in subsequent quarters as a result of sequentially slower real disposable personal income growth.
Translation: I can’t seem to find a credit card that isn’t maxed out. Oh wait, let me try this one. Oh, never mind, it expired in 2003.
Eddie was up in New Hampshire for a few days. Every food store, quick mart, gas station mart, etc. had a full stock of Bud and Bud Light products. Walmart had a pallet in the middle of the aisle with Bud Light 36 packs for like $17.99 or something close. In another week or two, I suspect the whole pallet goes into a dumpster.
So I am now trying to resolve my $807.50 parking fee from JFK long-term parking.
I call NJ EZ-Pass and they say it’s all Port Authority Parking that handles the charges, even the ones that show up on my EZ-Pass statement. She gives me a phone number to the PANY. I call the number, there is no operator, just a directory by name lookup. No voice mail option either. So I go to the parking at JFK webpage and there is only an email that you use for billing inquiries and I shit you not. It says, “(especially for double-billing).” So I write the long detailed email asking them to confirm receipt and I get the following auto-reply email with formatting, highlighting that would make a kindergarten teacher blush, and had. It also had 1,113 words. We live in the third world.
I forgot to mention. The JFK airtrain at 12:30am on a light travelling night July 4th, was so packed, we had to wait 15 minutes for it to come and many people couldn’t even get on. Third World.
I couldn’t get the letter to post. Shame too. It was a prime example of what our government has been reduced to.
Gary,
Bud will survive this. Just like Goya, Keurig, the NFL, etc.
Quite honestly, boycotting a product because someone transgender promoted it is pretty hateful.
So much for live and let live.
Remember my diatribe a few days ago about Freedom?
The average Trumpy couldn’t define that word (let alone spell it). But there’s an American flag (made in China) hanging from their pickup truck (which was built and assembled in Mexico), so they’re good.
Libturd says:
July 19, 2023 at 9:08 am
“Bud will survive this…boycotting a product because someone transgender promoted it is pretty hateful.”
Nice try — deliberately omitting details to make a stupid accusation. You conveniently forgot to mention the horse-faced dingbat marketing director who not only thought it was a good idea to use a tranny to promote a blue-collar beer, but also couldn’t stop herself from publicly offending the existing customer base as well. Go woke, go broke.
Lib, the issue with those other boycotts was that those products were actually good or at least differentiated. Bud is an OK beer, but there are many other “ok” choices in that price range. Do I care if I have a Bud vs a coors vs modela? Not sure if a generic product will actually be missed?
So, you agree in part and disagree in part. These hurtful comments were what exactly? I’ve read some things and if that’s all… how soft are these bud light customers? Is the word snowflake still around? Either way, “previous” bud light customers succeeded in cancelling the marketing director. yay cancel culture!
SmallGovConservative says:
July 19, 2023 at 9:30 am
Libturd says:
July 19, 2023 at 9:08 am
“Bud will survive this…boycotting a product because someone transgender promoted it is pretty hateful.”
Nice try — deliberately omitting details to make a stupid accusation. You conveniently forgot to mention the horse-faced dingbat marketing director who not only thought it was a good idea to use a tranny to promote a blue-collar beer, but also couldn’t stop herself from publicly offending the existing customer base as well. Go woke, go broke.
Fast: It’s all good, recession averted, high rates won’t stop the housing market, (although my spouse tells me they have seen deals fall through do to houses not appraising), credit conditions are tightening, more mortgage applications being declined, but not an issue here , because we have people with tons of cash and seven figure incomes. So party on and enjoy!! To hell with the younger generations!
I think you missed the point. It was a pointless straight up insult to their core customers. How would you feel if they put scales on the video poker machines at the casino and posted data about BMI every time you won? The idea is a new marketing director wanted to attract new health conscious patrons to their video poker machines, and a younger more hip demographic. Then they posted to instagram a picture of a cut college frat boy with the tagline: our video poker isn’t just for the oxygen tank, adult diaper or morbidly obese anymore.
Libturd says:
July 19, 2023 at 9:08 am
Gary,
Quite honestly, boycotting a product because someone transgender promoted it is pretty hateful.
Quite honestly, boycotting a product because someone transgender promoted it is pretty hateful.
This isn’t a boycott, this is a termination. Anheuser Busch made it clear that they don’t like the All-American look. They want to steer towards a new ‘edgy’ and ‘with it’ and ‘global’ progressive image. It was goodbye boomer, biker, fratty and masculine types and hello neutral, sensitive, aware and tuned-in types. The CEO is still holding true to that message. Okay, enjoy. Previous AB drinkers are also not comfortable with men masquerading as 12 year old girls. It makes a lot of gals and guys a bit uneasy.
Is this a trustworthy source?
https://www.foxnews.com/media/bud-light-marketing-vp-inspired-update-fratty-touch-branding-inclusivity
“Heinerscheid’s comments have gone viral days later, after Bud Light and its parent company Anheuser-Busch received backlash for partnering with transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney.”
Below is what offended the existing customer base, right?
“We had this hangover, I mean Bud Light had been kind of a brand of fratty, kind of out of touch humor, and it was really important that we had another approach,” she said.
3b,
Party on, dude!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szwclmmKwLg
Was at a party last weekend lots of Modelo. No Bud products.
I could care less as I don’t drink the stuff.
What are you talking about? They love america. This is the new ad they came out with afterwards: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTMZKlkXP_k
PS. “Termination” I love that! losers cancel others, real traditional classic americans terminate them
Fast Eddie says:
July 19, 2023 at 9:52 am
This isn’t a boycott, this is a termination. Anheuser Busch made it clear that they don’t like the All-American look.
Lefty,
Check out ADUS. A pure bottom of the P/E channel play. These are my best setups for a fundamental play.
Chi, I don’t think your comparison was fair. I am not saying Bud was smart here. But I am saying it was really not boycott worthy. Really, my main point here is that these boycotts hurt in the short run. This will be forgotten in a year.
$150,000 down, $5,000 per month in PITI will have friends and family envious of your wealth:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/paramus/723-stevens-ct-paramus-nj-07652–1107785559
But I am saying it was really not boycott worthy.
It’s not a boycott, the divorce is final. And it’s worthy because people are done with having transvestite story time, activism disguised as marketing, men with d1cks claiming they’re pregnant and someone’s seven year old daughter exposed to this: https://tinyurl.com/ywdfh23e
I don’t care about this generational stuff, but some of you seem to. So I saw this in my inbox and instead of skimming past it decided to share with boys and girls here, with no further comment:
The Millennial generation, the largest ever in the U.S. at over 71 million strong, has become increasingly important to the economic picture as they’ve moved into the grown-up stage of life where settling down and buying homes, cribs and cars is the norm. The median Millennial will turn 34 this year. Along with Gen-Z, they accounted for a quarter of total consumer spending in 2019 and have gained six points of share in the last three years, as a combination of strong wage growth, fiscal stimulus, and the student debt holiday put them in a sweet spot. Their contribution to debt growth has been running at twice their role in the base. A year ago delinquency rates on credit card and auto borrowing for young adults (i.e., those under 40) began to rise from what had been very low levels, suggesting some of the financial flexibility that’s characterized this cycle is gradually fading for young adults.
Household formation, that had been MIA for 25-to-34 year olds in the aftermath of the financial crisis and beyond, boomed and the share of the population that head a household (i.e., the headship rate), retraced six years of declines from 2020 to 2022. That spike created a tight apartment rental market, the effects of which have influenced the inflation picture. Lately the job market has been especially friendly to this group, a reversal of the 2010s experience. With more of them armed with a college education, employment-to-population ratios are back above the pre-Pandemic highs, and their median wage growth has bested that of the rest of the population by +3.5 percentage points over the last 18 months.
Those under 35 hold much more student debt than the rest of the population, and the imminent return of payments represents an annualized drag equal to (75) basis points of their spending, compared to (25) basis points for everyone else. When we combine that with the effects of asset price changes, increased interest income, the cost of necessities and rising debt service obligations, the drag on spending for this demographic is about (2)% this year, compared to +60 basis points for all consumers. For young adults, that drag seems big enough to impact discretionary spending. In addition to having more exposure to rents and childcare, they spend more of their money on used cars, jewelry, toys, travel and eating out than the average household.
The Stocks: Tread Carefully
We assembled a list of large- and small-cap stocks with above-average exposure to Millennials, drawing on our research and an ETF that’s meant to take advantage of the group’s rise. The growth model rankings for the stocks are shown in Appendix 1 and 2 on page 13 and 14. Most are drawn from the consumer cyclical and media sectors, with a few from technology, real estate and elsewhere. In the large-cap space, revenue growth for the average stock is expected to fall to a mid-single-digit rate this year, after booming for the last five, while on average capital spending is estimated to grow three times faster. Forward-P/E premiums average +30% and free cash flow yields trail those of the market by a point. Valuations were more extreme in early-2021, but given the circumstances, we would be cautious. Only a few large-cap stocks have the combination of strong capital deployment and earnings quality that’s been consistently helpful in the consumer space, including LOW, BKNG and NFLX.
Conclusion: Disinflationary Result
The drag on Millennial consumption is not enough to derail the consumer spending train, but could put downward pressure on inflation, as price gains in the categories they favor has been +3 to +5% above normal. The most obvious channel is via rents, that surged as young adults who make-up half of all renters formed lots of households. Rents account for over 40% of the core-CPI composite and had been increasing at +8% year-over-year rates. Based on the trend in newly-signed leases, that pace could slow by half over the next year. Outside of shelter, the Core-CPI has retraced 75% of its rise. This Millennial dynamic could add to the downward momentum.
Luxury at it’s finest, only 700K! Your friends will be wondering where they went wrong!!
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/paramus/607-roosevelt-blvd-paramus-nj-07652–2006713799
Fast: With 2 bedrooms and sold as is!! But this is perfectly normal.
Tell me this isn’t a steal at 900K. A seven figure hammer price is in the works as I write!!
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/paramus/715-evans-st-paramus-nj-07652–2006714606
Way back when I was doing my MBA a couple decades ago I had a Marketing/Strategy professor who said all beer basically tasted the same, and so it ultimately has to win on brand/image/marketing. (Some beer-lovers in the class argued of course, I assume he was talking about mass-market beer). I think the Bud folks assumed that they could take a core product and then sub-market it to different niche groups without poisoning their brand image to their core “Joe Sixpack” and “Dumb frat guy” that they seemed to take for granted. Suddenly their beer didn’t say that they loved pool parties with girls with big t1tt1es, cool dogs, and hanging out and watching football with their buds, instead it implied that they were cool with tucking their wieners, or maybe eating the wrong kind of wieners, while telling other guys that their dresses and hairdos look fabulous.
Hurry!! This gem won’t last!!
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/paramus/187-brookfield-ave-paramus-nj-07652–2006709378
Dumped my MS today….glad that was the financial I held, the other two I dumped earlier (BAC, XLF) only popped about 2-3% over the last two days, MS gave me 6% or so…dumped my CRWD put writes also, she’s moving again. Still long the other side of that trade. And oh my VNO…have no idea my basis in that now, I’ve written a lot against it, but I’m likely 13 or below from March and she just broke 20…likely out of that by end of day/week.
Giddyup boys.
something has gone wrong if beer is a big issue in your life. Reevaluate and sort it out
Duvel or Chimay for me. That’s it.
“Left: I perhaps view the economy in a different light. I don’t see the current environment as sustainable, based on a number of factors that I have noted repeatedly.”
Probably agree on the difference between us. I’m certainly not arguing we are in a strong absolute position but everything is relative…My back of the envelope view I’m going to research and refine over the weekend…GDP = C+I+G with nearly 70% being C (consumer spending). Pull apart C by age quintiles, multiple views…personal expenditures, earnings, assets….I’m seeing up, nominal dollars…example, is the lowest earning quintile getting absolutely squeezed by inflation and worse off? Sure. But their earnings and expenditures are actually up. So C is up, and GDP projects up. Not great for them, but the aggregate numbers go up so….
“Lots of cheer leading out there that all is well, and at some point when it’s revealed that it’s not, and it falls apart, then those same cheer leaders will be crying that something has to be done. Meanwhile, the prudent get nothing. Maybe that’s just the way it is now. ”
Agree, but isn’t this conversation so 2009? We literally had all this exact same hand wringing on this forum 15 years ago and concluded then the prudent were not rewarded and were actually disadvantaged. That view is old, unactionable news. Sucks, but it’s been the reality for a while now. We know this, we’ve agreed this.
Beer is a big issue in the lives of beer marketing directors. Beer consumers, they have a lot of options. It’s pretty easy to choose a beer where the marketing director isn’t pushing something they don’t like. That marketing director got fired because she cost the business a ton of revenue for trying to turn her company’s brand into a platform for her own social agenda, and finding out she was absolutely tone-deaf about the values of most of her brand’s customers.
Maybe she can find a job at Ben & Jerry’s or Subaru, where her agenda and advertising Ideas will resonate with more of the customers.
“You generalize something in area where you do not work. Very few kids are getting 90k off the street. That is pretty made -up. You have some kind of skewed bias on tech area.”
Need to be careful here for obvious reasons…grad is neither tech nor finance. Another area generally deemed well paid, but grad is with a no-name company in that area and from a sub 100 school. $90k, firm and confirmed.
So back to my aggregate math, this time generationally. We are at the back end of the baby boom, ie. the ones already retired are more than well set on assets (homes, stocks ATHs). The remaining tail end Boomers still working and early Gen Xers (generally, everyone age 50+ plus) who are not in not great sectors (respectfully, like yours) are getting squeezed but…
There are not that many of you relative to those doing well.
What “should” you/your guys have received in an additional wage bump this year that you didn’t? An extra $10k salary increase?
So guess what? The new grad’s earnings covers, from an economic perspective, nine of your guys’ lack of wage increases.
Stated differently, the economy can do just fine ‘screwing’ nine of you because this new grad is employed right out of school at $90k.
So again the aggregate numbers go up. As do the markets.
Sucks, but that’s the reality.
The economy writ large (GDP) and the markets do not trade off the pain of the weakest links.
That is a big part of the reason we are running up.
“How about it grim? You be the mediator here. Kind of tired of trying to explain to left regarding IT job market. He believes it is me alone.”
Sorry for stream of posts but just catching up real-time…no, I don’t believe it is you alone, but your sector…
Your sector is the equivalent of being a ball bearing manufacturer in Cleveland in 1980. You’re fucked.
But that is not new news. We established that pre-pandemic.
I agree I don’t have anywhere near the insight into your sector that you do…but I offer you ought to consider whether you are projecting your view of being a ball bearing manufacturer across the entire economy…
left,
My brother made 90k out of school twenty three years ago at a hedge fund. I made 55K two years out of school in 1997 down in DC without a much experience or tech degree. Is 90K a great salary now when rents are 4500? I think not. And to be clear, “my area” of technology is simply underfunded bc we have eschewed regulation in favor of growth. Look at article other day about PPP fraud and Kudlow. The govt just does not care as it wants money spent, fraudulently or not. No one is looking. Back in 2011-2012, I was lapping my client executive buddy, making 250k on contract. Why? Because FATCA, Dodd Frank and other regulations had to be completed and I worked on finance change projects previously. I wrote my own rate. Today, there is zero investment. It will come again. With great wealth, there are great crimes. Right now, Fed and govt is looking other way with regulations, like with SVB and trying to avoid any shake of tree. I will have to suck it up but no doubt when a bust occurs, there will be major new oversight and I will be asking major bump.
“My brother made 90k out of school twenty three years ago at a hedge fund.”
Apples and oranges, and again feels to me you are trying to squeeze your round peg argument into a square hole…you first say my 90k grad should not be used because they are an upside outlier, when I show they are middle of the road by background you compare them to the ultimate upside outlier of 20 years ago…
“And to be clear, “my area” of technology is simply underfunded bc we have eschewed regulation in favor of growth.”
Does this not spot-on support my assertion? Welcome to Cleveland. That ball bearing manufacturer had Gulf front in Naples until NAFTA. Humpty-dumpty fell for both of you, and no one is putting him back together.
Assumptions of what should be as opposed to what is (hello, echoes of recent Fed discussions here) simply just does not matter. What is, matters. Whether one agrees or not. You seem to be establishing your own personal benchmark of “what should be” and finding fault with the economy because it doesn’t conform. That approach is logically backwards.
Careful, because it is as dangerous as ‘assuming’ a bridge exists over an open ravine, and stepping forward. Neither outcome is desirable.
Look at article other day about PPP fraud and Kudlow.
Last post then back to the coal mines….
No One, good post on the Millennial. Literally what I was trying to say afterward…in evaluating the prospects for the entire economy (markets) pull apart the spending, earnings, and savings of each demographic relative to their size. Still intend to run numbers over the weekend.
Lib, TY on ADUS. Will look. First thought on just punching up what they do, home health care (a portion of their business) frightens me, that area always blows up. Pay attention to contribution. And re: P/E, since it’s 22x forward pay attention to PEG. Haven’t pulled up either of those points, again weekend.
Be well all.
He was offered more at Bayer, I believe. 90k was a sh*t ton, back in 2000. He also graduated from small NE tech school that is 80-90th from USNews ranking so not elite either. Those were times bc tech bubble. I rode it as well, by just by learning excel and access. I have GTP in our group who has been here for a year. I know he does not make 60k. He is moving back in with Mom this month as rotation takes him to NJ. Still, two year program and he will be 25 when finished, not making 90k. I will say this, it is damn easy to make 100k in NYC tech. You can easily make 125k with only a few years. It gets much harder to move in 150-200k base full time salary range regardless of experience. It happened briefly in 2021-2022. You were taking a risk jumping to start up or big tech. They got let go in fall 2022. I avoided that fate. I lost a few but turned down a few too bc out of job as chief earner is not something I will risk. My job search and risk appetite is very different than care-free millennial crowd. That is my view of market too. Grim and I agreed that commuting to NYC 3-5 days in minimum 50k increase. Why would I take less when WFH mostly and my commute is easy 45m?
Did a bit of traveling, made some observations of McDonald restaurants over some time.
Best ones have hispanic workers of some sort.
Went to some white bread McDonalds. Absolutely the worst service of all. White kids don’t want to work in fast food. Maybe they think it’s beneath them.
You know you are old when you walk into a museum and see a good part of your history behind the glass.
I could donate half of what I have owned, it would have made it into the Smithsonian.
Bystander,
I don’t have a real grasp on your field, but what I “assume” is that it is a field where the workers don’t have:
LEVERAGE.
Either there is not enough demand, or your Flag Waving American friends have decided to outsource your work so they can increase the GREEN in their WALLETS like the PATRIOTS that they are.
Either way, other than try to reinvent yourself, I don’t know what you would do.
But after a visit to Washington DC, I can tell you I have no idea why the youth are doing the job I do for what we get paid. That place is drowning in Government Cash and PENSONS.
No one there is worried about their futures, they know the public sector will be paying for all of their retirements.
Regarding Bud Light, I don’t think it is the boycott per say that is being successful. The main issue is that people are being ridiculed and made fun of when they are seen drinking it. Therefore people with really no agenda are avoiding it like the plague. I’m in the German State of Bavaria which has around 650 breweries. Big differences in taste of course depending on what you like. A couple of US brands that Germans do like are Samuel Adams and Yuengling.
Sold out of my TSN.
Aside from my META and SPY biggest longs are VNO (will trim some more), AAP, CRWD, NASD.
Need more. Open invite for a 5-10% pullback, anytime, anywhere….
During the pandemic-recovery period, waves of employees left their jobs in search of greener pastures—a phenomenon that came to be known as the “Great Resignation.” As the economy slows and companies embark on layoffs and job cuts, many such workers are returning, or “boomeranging,” to their previous employers.
Other factors also are contributing to the “Great Regret,” including workers’ shifting views on job searches and the attraction of a familiar workplace.
Sought-after talent is being bombarded by tempting daily job offers. Today’s workers are updating their LinkedIn profiles, signing up for alerts on various sites and tapping into their friends’ referral networks, according to David Lewis, chief executive of human resources consultancy OperationsInc.
Lewis explained that once we land a job, we don’t turn all this noise off, meaning most are looking at new jobs 24/7. He added that in a world where people are always hearing about greener grass, they are far more likely to explore and will often go straight to the job they are seeking in terms of pay.
Then, he said, when people get the offer at that high level, they are compelled to consider it, even if the grass ends up being browner rather than greener. And that’s when would-be boomerangs start to think about returning to their former workplaces.
Courtney Jones, who is manager of diversity and inclusion for the Fine Arts Museums of San Francisco and oversees 460 people across both museums, views the Great Regret as resulting from the loss of familiarity and friendship that former employees had with their colleagues, and the lack of nonmonetary benefits such as the better work-life balance a previous organization had provided.
Some employees who left for a better work climate also came to realize that virtual and hybrid work had changed all workplaces.
John Smith, senior vice president of human resources at AArete, a management consulting firm with 400 employees, said that many of his staff sought new opportunities because the work they were doing had become virtual, which wasn’t what they had signed up for.
“Our consultants liked team camaraderie, client interaction and travel,” Smith said. “Many thought or hoped it would be different somewhere else but found that not to be the case. Only later did they determine they missed the culture and collaboration at AArete.”
It isn’t clear if such employees looking to return are able to get jobs at their old companies.
In jobs that require expertise or a level of historical organizational knowledge, a returning candidate may have a better chance of securing a position, according to Jones of the Fine Arts Museums. However, if the skill-set is common, then the comeback opportunities may be fewer.
Workers’ accomplishments in the intervening period also matter. “If they’ve added new knowledge and skills that benefit our business, reuniting is a win-win,” Smith of AArete said
What I do? I am not crying poverty here. Most people would be happy with total comp. I just did not sign up for this salary forever. I guess, Phoenix, imagine your top level surgeon for liver oncology brings in tons of money into hospital. He is paid handsomely but can’t help burning his initials into organ on way out. We have post-op software that detects this and also provides whistleblowing features to escalate any anomalies. Lets say the hospital says thanks and surgeon remains after getting clearance from Federal agencies. There you go.
Here is some more insight into how things work, Phoenix. Markets up, no one cares.
A parliamentary investigation into the collapse of Credit Suisse will keep its files closed for 50 years, according to a parliamentary committee document, a level of secrecy that has triggered concern among Swiss historians.
The document means the investigating commission would hand over its files to the Swiss Federal Archives after a longer gap than the usual 30 years to ensure high levels of confidentiality apply to the investigation, which has generated huge public interest.
Last post..to be fair, Citi is paying gobs for regulatory and risk controls positions. When you get Cease and Desist order, suddenly purse strings open. Even left can probably see that type of event impacting need for downstream investment as opposed pouring money into front. Last weekm I had ex-coworker who asked if interested in job as someone is leaving. He said that they live in CT and can’t handle 3 day mandate and 2.5 commute. When I told him where I lived now, he laughed.
Left,
I can’t tell you how much I just made off of this rally, but it’s been a sweet ride.
The short story on ADUS is that Biden’s new medicare directive (probably all talk with no teeth) was seen as a threat. I know it’s all BS and will probably end up as a tailwind. PEG is cheap. Take a good loook. P/E was >60 both pre pandemic and post.
At least Gary admitted what he was upset about, not pretending it was something else.
And that is fine. I actually agree with more of it than I disagree with.
ByS, every post you make supports the contra- to your argument.
I haven’t made this discussion personal to you, as I understand you have family circumstances to consider.
I am challenging the approach that says “this sector’s work is being seriously undervalued” when for at least the last decade society is saying the exact opposite every two weeks (based on the paycheck rendered) and every quarter (based on the banks’ performances).
There is no ‘absolute’ value to anyone’s work….there is simply the bid/ask over time for services rendered. For everyone.
Sucks that the doc burned his initials in me on the way out, but as the top liver oncologist around, yeah, I’ll overlook that, happily pay the medical bills, and live.
Certainly better than a cancer recurrence, so most certainly I am not paying to have someone monitor if the doc is John Hancocking me. It just simply does not matter to me in the grand scheme of things.
Ask yourself the same thing in the context of many of the services your sector provides in a bank.
You may catch an error or fraud, but no one gives a shit. Cost of doing business, which is the level of comp they are going to associate with it.
Lib, right there with you brother. Pretty much why I cleaned out the cupboards, at some point it’s just stupid to let so many gains over a short period ride….
I’ll look at ADUS, you have me smiling diving into a 22 P/E specifically because it is ‘cheap’ lol. Never thought I’d see that typed under your handle, ha!
I’ve done well last two quarters grabbing some fallen angels on earnings under the structures I’ve described. Will do same this season. Here’s hoping for some quality companies with quality balance sheets to stub their toes and have holders panic.
This is correct, no one gives a shit.
Ask yourself the same thing in the context of many of the services your sector provides in a bank.
You may catch an error or fraud, but no one gives a shit. Cost of doing business, which is the level of comp they are going to associate with it.
BTW,
Trans isn’t going anywhere. Bud or no Bud, they walk among you.
You can’t legislate anyone’s sexuality away from them.
While you are busy trying, those running the finances will happily take your money from you while you are distracted.
And when you eschew laws and don’t give a shit, don’t be surprised when the whole shit-box explodes at some point. It will. Claim the money now, I get it. Now back to trying to source Zelle transactions into my application so people can ignore where payments are going. Nothing nefarious I am sure…but hey, we won’t know for 50 years.
Arlington National Cemetery is a truly sobering place to visit.
Got my steps in that day.
Bystander,
Boomer doesn’t care about the next fifty years. By then he will be reduced to:
Oxygen 43 kg 61.4%
Carbon 16 kg 22.9%
Hydrogen 7.0 kg 10.0%
Nitrogen 1.8 kg 2.6%
Phoenix, the Mcdonald’s on the trenton/lawrence border on the Brunswick circle has the best service I’ve ever seen. They are the fastest, clean, never mess up the order. Fries are always super crispy and hot. The employee mix is about 75% black, 25% hispanic. Whoever runs that place runs the best ship I’ve ever seen.
“Went to some white bread McDonalds. Absolutely the worst service of all. White kids don’t want to work in fast food. Maybe they think it’s beneath them.”
Phoenix, even been in a Chic-Fil-A?
I’ve been to many of them in different parts of the country, and seen teens of all races, including whites, providing excellent service with a smile.
They’re probably violating some kind of laws to do it. Like discriminating against people with 8 inch long fingernails by not hiring them as cashiers. (Ever seen someone with 8 inch fingernails trying to hit keys or hand over bags? You can probably find them at a McDonalds or a WalMart, at least until they’ve been fully replaced by self-check out.) My understanding is that franchise owners are only allowed to have one store, so they have to treat that store like a sole proprietor would, and hire people who are willing to provide their high standards of customer service. Maybe they pay more for that than the McDonalds franchise owners are willing to.
The only Chic-fil-A locations I’ve ever seen mediocre service from are the ones in airports.
Fingernails?
You should see the fingernails on nurses. They aren’t supposed to have fake nails, they harbor germs.
Haha. Good luck enforcing that one. You won’t have a single woman working in that career if they don’t get what they want. And they want their nails.
Did you watch the “entitled” nurse video I posted earlier? And how the other girl kept asking to “touch cops.”
But a guy with a “possible” fake twenty gets a death sentence…
Don’t go to the McDonald’s on Broad Street in Bloomfield unless you are unarmed. The last three happy meal with plain cheeseburger order (where we clearly indicated in the app, no pickles or ketchup and marked it plain) resulted in, 1) a hamburger with ketchup. 2) a cheeseburger with ketchup and pickles. 3) a) first time through, and this was the real winner, a bun with cheese on it (no burger). b) a plain hamburger.
So this last time, I asked them what they thought a plain cheeseburger without pickles and ketchup meant since there was apparently no way to order such a thing and we happened to have the first picky kid ever at that location. The drive thru person couldn’t care less. The manager got it right. By this point Gator was screaming at me to just leave.
And now you guys know why I prefer Burger King over McDonalds. Of course at BK, have it your way means the next customer is likely to have it your way. You rule!
Another McDonalds fact:
Go to a McDonalds in Maryland, pay 0.05 for a bag for your food.
Surprise, surprise, surprise.
I was pretty stoked when we were in Vegas and they had bags. I forget what a convenience they were.
Lib,
NJ, yeah, you are pretty much “unarmed.”
Even with your carry permit, you pull that thing on someone, no matter the reason, someone will prosecute you unless you are related to a judge or a cop.
America controls you financially and legally. You want to carry, move out of NJ.
Only place I have ever seen more cops than NJ is in Washington DC. Saw almost none in Maryland, Pennsylvania, or Virginia. Somehow they manage to get the job done with 1/10 of police.
Oh, and of course PA has Scotrun, Intercourse, and Blueball, but I had never travelled through Virginville before.
What kills me about NJ is how large the police force is and how little law enforcement they perform.
Our roads are starting to resemble those in Mumbai.
Oh yeah. I can’t wait to get the fuck out of here.
Phoenix,
Let’s just hope that inflation to jack a plane has gone up significantly. It may be good for your line of work but I hate to think about scum getting funds bc no one care as making money.
An estimated $440 million was lost by Zelle users through frauds and scams in 2021. But banks “appear not to have provided sufficient recourse to their customers.”
“Authorized” vs “Unauthorized:” Under the a federal rule known as Regulation E, banks are technically only liable to cover fraudulent activity when it involves “unauthorized” transactions. Say, when someone steals your credit card and makes purchases without your permission. But if someone persuades you to send them $500 through a phishing scam, banks consider that “authorized” and won’t reimburse those funds.
Libturd says:
July 19, 2023 at 3:13 pm
What kills me about NJ is how large the police force is and how little law enforcement they perform.
3 In the room making sure this one is “safe”
https://youtu.be/hqRnvMBDFtw?t=3442
I’m sure you remember I don’t hold the “big banks” in very high regard, but looking at this statement completely in a vacuum… is it their fault?
Bystander says:
July 19, 2023 at 3:17 pm
But if someone persuades you to send them $500 through a phishing scam, banks consider that “authorized” and won’t reimburse those funds.
You didn’t see any cops in Virgina because they were all out on the side a road manning a speed trap.
Joyce,
Let me ask you, what do you think of peer to peer payment fintech service LLC formed and owned by seven of largest banks who claim almost no KYC responsibility for 2b payments per day? Convenience in place of responsibility is never a great outcome. This is by design.
Bystander,
Yeah, I agree. I remember years ago, wanted a small loan, didn’t really need it though.
Champion Mortgage was the company. My credit was stellar.
My opinion, they were a legal parasitic lender. Rate was astronomical.
I found the owner. Guy donated millions to Morristown Hospital.
Took from the poor, gave to the hospital, looks like a hero.
I have seen this repeated many times. Recently a woman who was a benefactor to a museum, article below.
Like dope dealers that give money to the community to look good. Or priests/pastors/rabbi’s that appear to be the best in the world, then you find out they are hooking up with your kids.
It’s amazing the facade Americans put on every day:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/york-investigators-seize-69m-worth-194449896.html
Joyce,
I understand your point.
However, white collar crime is rewarded. Only penalties are usually financial.
That is why it continues. Steal 100 million from customers, get a fine for 50 million (government profits) make a deal to pay back 30 million (class action most goes to lawyers) and pocket the last 20 mil.
A win for everyone except the consumer.
And with those who get scammed, it’s usually greed that gets them. They want that million so bad, they fork up 10g to get it.
No sympathy for those who are greedy. You got taken, too bad, so sad.
How much money is being stolen in the stock market with hacked phones using Pegasus right now?
You think for one minute that illegal insider stock trading isn’t being committed using information from hacked cellphones?
If not you are foolish.
Phoenix,
No reason to use a hacked cell phone. Just purchase congress.
Mozilo died this week. I hope it was an excruciatingly painful death. He made $470 million. He paid back less than 50 million.
ozilo’s compensation during the United States housing bubble of 2001–06 later came under scrutiny. During that period, his total compensation (including salary, bonuses, options and restricted stock) approached $470 million.[7] His compensation also included payment for equity memberships and annual country club dues at Sherwood Country Club in Thousand Oaks, CA, The Quarry at La Quinta golf club in La Quinta, California and at the Robert Trent Jones Golf Club in Gainesville, Virginia.[8]
Mozilo testified before the United States House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on March 7, 2008, calling reports of his pay “grossly exaggerated” in some instances and pointing out that he lost millions as well. He defended the pay: The compensation was a function of how the company did ahead of the mortgage crisis.[9]
SEC accusation regarding insider sales
Over many years, Mozilo sold hundreds of millions of dollars in stock, even while publicly touting the stock and using shareholder funds to buy back stock to support the share price. On June 4, 2009, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charged him with insider trading and securities fraud.[10][11]
Settlement with SEC
On October 15, 2010, Mozilo reached a settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission over securities fraud and insider trading charges. Mozilo agreed to pay $67.5 million in fines, and accepted a lifetime ban from serving as an officer or director of any public company. It is the largest settlement by an individual or executive connected to the 2008 housing collapse. Robert Khuzami, director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement, said in a statement that “Mozilo’s record penalty is the fitting outcome for a corporate executive who deliberately disregarded his duties to investors by concealing what he saw from inside the executive suite.” By settling the SEC charges, Mozilo avoided a trial that could have led to future criminal charges.[12][13]
The terms of the settlement allowed Mozilo to avoid acknowledgment of wrongdoing. Countrywide was to pay $20 million of the $67.5 million penalty because of an indemnification agreement that was part of Mozilo’s employment contract.[13]
In February 2011, the US dropped its criminal investigation into the facts behind the civil settlement.[13]
Here’s the best part.
Friends of Angelo (FOA) VIP program
Further information: Countrywide financial political loan scandal
In June 2008, Conde Nast Portfolio reported that several influential lawmakers and politicians, including Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, and former Fannie Mae CEO Jim Johnson, received favorable mortgage financing from Countrywide by virtue of being “Friends of Angelo”.[14][15]
Democratic Senator Dodd received a $75,000 reduction in mortgage payments from Countrywide at allegedly below-market rates on his Washington, D.C. and Connecticut homes.[14][16] Dodd nonetheless called for stronger regulation of mortgage lenders and proposed that predatory lenders should face criminal charges.[14]
Clinton Jones III, senior counsel of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity, and “an adviser to ranking Republican members of Congress responsible for legislation of interest to the financial services industry and of importance to Countrywide.” was given special treatment. Jones is now state director for federal residential-mortgage bundler Freddie Mac. Alphonso Jackson, acting secretary of HUD at the time and long-time friend and Texas neighbor of President Bush, received a discounted mortgage for himself and sought one for his daughter. “In 2003, using V.I.P. loans for nearly $1 million apiece, Franklin Raines, Fannie Mae’s chairman and C.E.O. from 1999 to 2004, twice refinanced his seven-bedroom home, which has a pool and movie theater.”[14]
Though Mozilo donated extensively to both parties during the Clinton Administration, he himself was reportedly a registered Republican. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s son Paul Pelosi, Jr. also received a loan with Countrywide. Barbara Boxer, Adam H. Putnam, Richard C. Holbrooke, James E. Clyburn, and Donna Shalala are among those with mortgages from Countrywide. CBS News has obtained the following list of then-Fannie Mae employees whose names have been turned over to investigators as having received VIP loans from Countrywide:[17]
We ae a banana republic.
Most expensive cape cod home ever?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-calling-house-flippers-took-170542686.html
https://www.zillow.com/homes/112-washington-ave-beacon-ny_rb/30080310_zpid/
The entire drive from Phoenix to Grand Canyon to Las Vegas, 5 hour drive, passed 2 cops I think. I passed about 12 on the way home from Philly to Trenton. I passed another 12 on the way to Seaside a week later.
I’ve been shopping in PA and what not for the past year. You get bags, and straws with your drink. Life is grand…until you return to NJ. If you open my glove compartment, 500 plastic straws pop out like a jack in the box.
Lib,
I worked for a mortgage bank in NJ back in 2006 and handled building out Ellie Mae Encompass reporting features as well as automating loan pool data for uw/ due diligence reviews. I will never forget one pool where I saw the 6 execs names and that they gave themselves 1% fixed rates. Since it went into pool of hundreds of high cost borrowers from Elizabeth, it met the total blended rate parameters.
My dad was close with the CEO/founder of another mortgage company, a bit smaller of course. It of course went belly up. But not before a lot of people made a lot of money. He told my dad point blank that Clinton wanted people in homes no matter what. He never felt for one minute he did any wrongdoing.
George Bush:
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you all. Thank you for coming. Thanks for the warm welcome. It’s great to be back at the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is not my first time here, nor will it be my last. (Applause.) I am here today because we are taking action to bring many thousands of Americans closer to owning a home. Our government is supporting homeownership because it is good for America, it is good for our families, it is good for our economy.
During the signing ceremony of S. 811, The American Dream Downpayment Act, President George W. Bush delivers remarks at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development in Washington, D.C., Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2003. “One of the biggest hurdles to homeownership is getting money for a down payment,” said President Bush. “This administration has recognized that, and so today I’m honored to be here to sign a law that will help many low-income buyers to overcome that hurdle, and to achieve an important part of the American Dream.” White House photo by Paul MorseOne of the biggest hurdles to homeownership is getting money for a down payment. This administration has recognized that, and so today I’m honored to be here to sign a law that will help many low-income buyers to overcome that hurdle, and to achieve an important part of the American Dream.
I appreciate Alphonso Jackson agreeing to step up and become the Acting Secretary of the Housing and Urban Development. I look forward to his Senate confirmation, a hasty confirmation. (Applause.)
I also want to thank Mel Martinez for doing such a fine job as the Secretary of this important organization. Mel brought integrity and honor to the office. He did a fine job on behalf of all Americans. And we honor you, Mel. (Applause.)
I want to thank all the hardworking officers and employees of HUD. I appreciate your focus and your dedication, your willingness to work on behalf of a better America. (Applause.) I thank very much members of the Congress who have taken time to come and join us for this important bill signing. Senator Wayne Allard from Colorado is with us. Senator Allard, thank you for your work on the floor of the Senate. (Applause.) Chairman of the Financial Services Committee, Mike Oxley, is with us. Congressman, thank you for coming. (Applause.) Congressman Jim Leach from Iowa is with us today. Congressman, thank you for being here. (Applause.) Congresswoman Katherine Harris, who had a lot to do with this bill getting passed, is here with us. Katherine, thank you for coming. (Applause.) Delegate Madeleine Bordallo of Guam is with us today. I’m honored you are here. Thank you for coming, Madeleine. I appreciate you coming. (Applause.)
I, too, want to pay homage to a man I call “Little Woody” — that would be Rob Woodson. He worked hard in the development of this policy. I think it is safe to say that he was the — he developed the concept for this policy, a concept embraced by my administration. I’m appreciative that Michelle is here. I also want to thank Dad for coming — Bob Woodson, who is a social entrepreneur, a person who cares deeply about every American having the right and a chance to own a home. Thank the Woodson family. God bless you all. (Applause.)
I want to thank the representatives of the consumer and housing groups that worked hard on this piece of legislation. I want to thank leaders of the national community organizations that are with us, and members of the real estate industry.
This administration will constantly strive to promote an ownership society in America. We want more people owning their own home. It is in our national interest that more people own their own home. After all, if you own your own home, you have a vital stake in the future of our country. And this is a good time for the American homeowner. Today we received a report that showed that new home construction last month reached its highest level in nearly 20 years. (Applause.)
The reason that is so is because there is renewed confidence in our economy. Low interest rates help. They have made owning a home more affordable, for those who refinance and for those who buy a home for the first time. Rising home values have added more than $2.5 trillion to the assets of the American family since the start of 2001.
The rate of homeownership in America now stands a record high of 68.4 percent. Yet there is room for improvement. The rate of homeownership amongst minorities is below 50 percent. And that’s not right, and this country needs to do something about it. We need to — (applause.) We need to close the minority homeownership gap in America so more citizens have the satisfaction and mobility that comes from owning your own home, from owning a piece of the future of America.
Last year I set a goal to add 5.5 million new minority homeowners in America by the end of the decade. That is an attainable goal; that is an essential goal. And we’re making progress toward that goal. In the past 18 months, more than 1 million minority families have become homeowners. (Applause.) And there’s more that we can do to achieve the goal. The law I sign today will help us build on this progress in a very practical way.
Many people are able to afford a monthly mortgage payment, but are unable to make the down payment. So this legislation will authorize $200 million per year in down payment assistance to at least 40,000 low-income families. These funds will help American families achieve their goals, and at the same time, strengthen our communities.
And there’s more to do, as well. We’ll continue to pursue a broad agenda to help people own a home. There are three steps I want to describe to you right quickly about what we intend to do. First, those who apply for mortgages should be made aware of all the costs and warned about predatory lenders who take advantage of inexperienced buyers. So we’ve doubled the funds for housing counseling services, including those run by faith-based and community groups.
We understand that buying a home for the first time is complicated, and we want to simplify the process. We want to help people understand the pros and cons of buying a home. We want people to be fully aware of what it means to buy a home and what it takes. And we want people as best protected as possible from those shysters who would take advantage of first-time buyers. (Applause.)
Second, we need to make the home-buying process more affordable. Some of the biggest up-front costs in a home purchase are the closing costs. Sometimes they catch you by surprise. (Laughter.) Many home buyers do not have the time to shop around looking for a better deal on closing costs. You’re kind of stuck with what you’re presented with. And so they end up paying more than they should. So we’ve proposed new rules to make it easier for buyers to shop around and to compare prices on closing costs, so they can get the best deal and the best service possible.
And thirdly, we want to make buying a home simpler. Many first-time buyers look at the paperwork from a loan application, and frankly, get a little nervous about all the fine print. Those forms can be intimidating to the first-time home buyer. They can be intimidating to the second or third-time home buyer, too. (Laughter and applause.) So this administration has proposed new rules to simplify the forms home buyers and homeowners fill out when they apply for a loan or close on a mortgage.
We understand that buying a home is a big step, and so these three recommendations we’re making, these three changes in the rules will make that step easier; will enable people to make the step to buying a home — they’ll be able to do so with more confidence. These are practical ways that we are working to expand homeownership across the country.
The dream of homeownership should be attainable for every hardworking American. That’s what we want. In this act of Congress I’m going to sign, the regulations that I hope are finalized soon will help thousands of families fulfill the dream.
And so now it my honor, right here at this important Department, the Department responsible for encouraging homeownership in America, to sign the American Dream Downpayment Act. (Applause.)
https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2003/12/20031216-9.html
Bystander,
A gift for you:
https://youtu.be/BkqR-YM-N8I
Our medical supply chain just got worse
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12317251/Pfizer-factory-quarter-countrys-injectable-meds-created-destroyed-tornado-135mph-winds-tears-North-Carolina-town-leaving-path-carnage-wake.html
Juice: It’s madness, but this is the mentality now. Thanks to the Fed. It will take years if ever to undo the harm they have done to the economy.
I am in same industry as Bystander (IB Tech) – and I ultimately think his role is gone / going away unfortunately. Some folks have pivoted but ultimately the project manager / program manager roles are far and few between. The technical team lead also picks up these tasks as everyone has gone ‘agile’ and there is no need to plan multi year project plans with their complex dependencies… it is all about short iterative work now.
Furthermore consultants have been absolutely relegated to the work no one wants at cheap rates, this is not 100% of the time, but majority of the time. There are still six figures to be made out of school in technology.
This rally over? I think so.
Mike,
In theory yes but what’s old is new again, just under a new name. I am technical product manager now within Agile framework. I have yet to see one true Agile rollout at my bank. Call it whatever they want. Why? Because you can’t rollout a product with a dozen upstream dependencies and 50 downstream dependencies iteratively. It either works or it does not. You will hold it in dev until infinity until every last person adopts your new API and shuts off the old feed. Impact FINRA, OCC, FINMA, FCA regulatory? Good luck. Have a client that whines if any added work as a feature tradeoff. Nope, push the release. Want to send new data to a Bloomberg terminal? Good luck with a two week sprint cycle. It absolutely does not work for large regulated banks. I just managed a global control room release without a business product owner. 1 year project that went 2.5 years and delivered 25% of what they wanted. We did old lift and shift bc they are absolutely clueless on how difficult it is to get things done, cross teams globally who have not planned around your timelines. Hey, we want access to everyone’s team calendar so we can chaperone banking and research calls. Sure, let me just break every data privacy policy at the firm while getting MS right on the phone for free.
I wouldn’t give up just yet. Though locking in some gains is never a bad thing.
Don’t forget to let us know when you sell your DNA.
Oppenheimer got a stellar review!
I haven’t gone to the movie theater in 4 years. I might consider.
Trailer looks pretty amazing. Read a book about him in my teens when my nazi infatuation was replaced by my nuclear infatuation.
Bystander agree with everything you said. I am just talking about the current state of the state, not the reality of implementing anything.
Bystander/Phoenix,
I’m not disagreeing with you… merely saying there has to be at least a little personal responsibility. Is there a way to distinguish between ‘voluntarily’ sending money to someone you know, to someone you don’t know accidentally, and a phishing scam? Maybe there is and I’m completely ignorant. I do agree, conceptually, that offering a service with a lack of security and not disclosing the risks should have some kind of repercussions depending on the circumstances.
Phoenix,
A classic,,,is cheering at the end of Gangs of New York wrong?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2L2OaGZCcBs
Bystander,
It depends on how the money is obtained.
It’s 105F at 8:35PM
We’re going to the local IMAX on Sunday, mostly because this is one thing which we can do midday.
As of 7/23 America is paying 652 billion dollars in interest just to keep itself afloat.
Sorry Kiddies. Daddy mortgaged your house and died. You are now homeless and broke orphans.
You guys are something else.. ByS, so are you actually saying Zelle has lower KYC thresholds than PayPal, venmo or cash app? Really?
Phoenix, know champion and goryeb well enough back in the day. Provided them some warehousing facilities. Their slogan was “when your bank says no champion says yes”. What the fuck rate do you think unacceptable credits are going to pay?
Government (you) want low credits in homes then whine when shit blows up. Government takes offense at ceo salaries so comp moves to equities then you whine when the guys stock goes up.
World doesn’t conform to your view so everything is shit. How about accepting reality and working within that paradigm. May have better financial and emotional results….
Libturd,
I’ll watch the Oppenheimer movie sometime, maybe not in the theater, probably in my home theater. I don’t really want to share the experience with a crowd. Chris Nolan is probably the best director of this generation. Most of his movies get better with repeat viewing. The Dark Knight trilogy are by far the best “superhero” movies. Dunkirk and Inception were excellent. Tenet was stylistically excellent, if lacking in coherence.
Doing a little reading on Oppenheimer himself, like many math super-geniuses, there was a huge gap between his math smarts and his morals/politics, which seemed to be on par with a 15 year old’s. Many crazy mistresses, mostly commies. Like high school Model UN club, fantasizing about how the smarties like us were going to rule the world and turn it into a utopia, which is what communism promised at the time. This guy’s pecker was a magnet for crazy communist chicks, wouldn’t be surprised if the spies were after him via that channel.
This being hollywood, the movie may pretend that there was no real reason for a Red Scare, but it was real, the Russians really were spying and influencing. Just like there really are thousands, maybe tens of thousands of people who could more or less be called spies or influencers for the Chinese Communist Party right now. But this time Hollywood is being influenced by Communists because they want China market access, rather than their past (faulty) idealism for Russia. Not sure which one is more damning.
LW,
Yeah, that was their slogan. I didn’t really need them. It was more like an experiment to see how much they would try to a zz rape someone with good credit.
They were legalized loan sharks. Someone with marginal credit but honest and paid back their loan would have been a zz raped by them.
They made so much profit off of the ” unacceptable” credit people to put a wing on a hospital, and I am sure they pocketed more than that for themselves.
Did they really need to make that much to “stay afloat” or “turn a profit?
The fact that they used leverage-someone with bad credit- maybe through no fault of their own- then to profit so much they can donate a wing to a hospital ( which should be in the names of every sucker that used them) to me is disgusting.
I still think Memento is my favorite Nolan movie. I remember when he won an award and nobody knew who he was. I was sold on that movie alone after renting it.
World doesn’t conform to your view so everything is shit. How about accepting reality and working within that paradigm. May have better financial and emotional results….
Had I been taught the world correctly- that cops are liars and you can’t trust them, that courts are not a place to get justice, that churches are full of satanic individuals, and that my government is only out to help itself, yeah, it might have been different.
Took me a long time ( as my life really didn’t involve any of these institutions much due to the fact I worked hard and saved) to realize that all of it, from what you read in the history books, DARE visits, sermons at church were all just a steaming pile of sh it just like George Carlin has said.
So Phoenix proving my point that business in your view is ok so long as *you* delineate how much profit a company may make and how much a founder may be paid.
Please pull up Champions financials and do tell us all what the acceptable level of profit should have been for them. Can’t wait to hear. I mean the horror of them making more money than you think they should and then donating it for a children’s cancer wing for a hospital. The guy is truly a fucking ogre…
Yes, a marginal credit will pay more than he *should* if he actually repays the loan, at which point he will benefit from no longer being a marginal credit going forward. Problem with attempting to lend to marginal credits, rather than just shutting them out of the borrowing markets as was traditionally done, is the predictive tools to take them out of that box are not refined enough to distinguish those that will repay in advance. The solution to being a high rate marginal credit is to not be one, ie take loans and pay them back.
Like high school Model UN club, fantasizing about how the smarties like us were going to rule the world and turn it into a utopia, which is what communism promised at the time.
Instead you have unrestricted capitalism-with paid off politicians- where you have the choice between two senior citizens, one who can’t remember anything, the other with orange flopsweat hair-telling us how they are going to rule the world and turn it into a utopia.
Trip to DC showed me, not that I didn’t know, for many things we haven’t come as far as we think we have. Technologically yes, but the core, the foundation, it’s right where it started for many.
One of the exhibits talked about inclusion, and how many of the immigrants segregated themselves out-wouldn’t send their kids to the same schools. Yup, still like that today.
Sometimes the stratification is race, or religion, or increasingly-wealth.
With increasing income inequality time will tell how this all ends up. People here mock China on how they are tracked and controlled there. It won’t be long before it happens here- just look at Ring cameras, the Frogs of America actually buy the pot, hop in, and turn up the heat on themselves (legally).
My time is just about up. Hopefully my kid will survive Bidens and Trumps Utopia.
I never said the left. There is no KYC on any of them. The difference is that Zelle funds are held in FDIC insured accounts and should go through higher scrutiny. They don’t.
I may be misunderstanding your point because yes Zelle is FDIC meaning I have to have a bank account which is full KYC.
Just sold some concert tickets and took payment through PayPal. They are still in need of my social security number, have no idea where I live, and never asked nor do they know my profession.
What’s your point on zelle?
LW,
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that his “predictive tools” were set to “predict” himself a massive profit, so massive he could donate an entire wing to a hospital.
That is not a donation, that is a transfer of wealth from those who overpaid on a loan to an individual who elevated himself to “hero” status using that money.
He could have returned some of that “excess” profit back each year to those who were diligently paying their loans on time. You know, an analogy would be like a spotter in a gym-the guy does 99 percent of the lifting, but needs that “spotter” to help with his index fingers in order to move the bar the last six inches.
But seeing your name on a building-probably rubbed one off every night to that.
It reminded me of that scene in Billions when Bobby Axlerod fought to have a building named after him.
Bystander says:
July 20, 2023 at 9:23 am
I never said the left. There is no KYC on any of them. The difference is that Zelle funds are held in FDIC insured accounts and should go through higher scrutiny. They don’t.
Any sort of online payment, you damn well better know who you are sending it to. Zelle-it’s free- that’s the advantage. The others, PayPal, Venmo, yeah, you get the same “protection” aka none- but with a fee to boot. PayPal will protect you if you are a buyer on EBAY- but will destroy you if you are a seller. It ruined EBAY- which was based on your “reputation” but is now pretty much another Amazon. Cause now you have EBAY fees and PayPal fees- and thanks to Musk’s deal, you get to pay the government as well.
EBAY eliminated the cash option once PayPal put its grubby little payment system in place.
You want to fight at all, use a credit card. It might help you.
Zelle?
https://youtu.be/6nWWM8tTn84
It is nearly impossible to explain how incorrect your first paragraph is. And frankly not relevant (if certain massive profits were foreseen and predictable fifteen competitors would have jumped in and undercut him for business). I can’t elaborate any more on a mobile device.
But following up your spotter model, please inform us all, Benevolent Economic Czar of US Business, at what level of profitability does each US business need to start providing ‘rebates’ to its paying customers?
Because, you know, price controls (which is what you are advocating) have such a deep history of unabated economic success….
Please be certain to address single origin coffee and cream doughnuts. I paid 7.50 for mine this morning and feel the been been vendor is fleecing me. The shop had thick distressed wood counters after all. Fucking criminals.
RFK Jr. is going to be the Democrat Candidate for President.
Fat chance of that happening Gary. That’s like me saying Liz Cheney is going to be the Republican Presidential candidate.
The powers that be will see that Biden wins the nomination. At the end of the day, the SCOTUS has most likely determined the party that will win the 2024 election. Who runs, doesn’t matter.
But following up your spotter model, please inform us all, Benevolent Economic Czar of US Business, at what level of profitability does each US business need to start providing ‘rebates’ to its paying customers?
The answer is:
Whatever the politicians and corporations agree upon. It may vary depending on bribes, payoffs, kickbacks, favors, you know, Hunter Biden like things.
Once those parties have come to an agreement, you have a legal framework.
They, not me, are the Economic Czars. I just managed to stay away from them.
I’m out SMH after Taiwan Semi downplayed the AI hype. Short TSLA & TSM today for a pullback.
All I know is that the recession is over, or it’s not going to happen. Record credit card balances, it does not matter, 7 percent mortgage rates; it does not matter, tightening credit conditions; it does not matter, low 401k balances; it does not matter, inflation still high; it does not matter, finance and tech layoffs; it does not matter, AI rapidly advancing in the work place; it does not matter. And finally, two old geezers, one of which will be President again in 2024; it does not matter.
Spend, spend, and party on!
The democraps will do to him what they did to Henry Wallace.
Libturd says:
July 20, 2023 at 10:30 am
Fat chance of that happening Gary. That’s like me saying Liz Cheney is going to be the Republican Presidential candidate.
The powers that be will see that Biden wins the nomination. At the end of the day, the SCOTUS has most likely determined the party that will win the 2024 election. Who runs, doesn’t matter.
Just like the orchestra on the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.
3b says:
July 20, 2023 at 10:42 am
All I know is that the recession is over, or it’s not going to happen. Record credit card balances, it does not matter, 7 percent mortgage rates; it does not matter, tightening credit conditions; it does not matter, low 401k balances; it does not matter, inflation still high; it does not matter, finance and tech layoffs; it does not matter, AI rapidly advancing in the work place; it does not matter. And finally, two old geezers, one of which will be President again in 2024; it does not matter.
Spend, spend, and party on!
Sounds like a great place to open a new TSMC factory- as long as we get our chips cheaply and quickly.
“Two women are paraded naked in the street ‘and gang-raped’ by mob sparking furious protests as Modi says attack has ‘shamed India’”
Priceless.
https://tinyurl.com/4ndbmvpa
Phoenix,
We both share a lot of commonly pessimistic views about our local environment. Though, I complain a bit, I am generally an optimist and find the good in most situations and people. I find loving my enemies is a lot more effective than battling them. Plus, there are very few people in this world I really dislike. My only real pet peeve are intentionally careless drivers who put their lives and those of my family and me at risk so they can get home 30 seconds earlier.
I too remember the Champion loan sharks. How could anyone forget their commercials. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lE62JLB9ezI
I’m kind of with Leftwing here. The definition of capitalism – an economic and political system in which a country’s trade and industry are controlled by private owners for profit will always breed greed. It’s what makes socialism so attractive to so many. Unfortunately, that same greed is what ends up causing the demise of most socialist governments as those in the position of leadership end up flaunting the rules. Heck, look at Pelosi. What you and I (and Martha Stewart) would be imprisoned for, she not only continues to practice, but so does half of our Congress. And we send these criminals money for their campaigns and put their names on our bumpers.
I constantly find the real problem with improving the quality of life for all is that the vast majority of people are abject morons. Their herd mentality keeps them from straying from the pack or looking under the surface for the true or even an alternative view. All the meanwhile, they think they are unique.
Who is going to see the Fast & The Furious 11?
Heck, look at Pelosi. What you and I (and Martha Stewart) would be imprisoned for, she not only continues to practice, but so does half of our Congress. And we send these criminals money for their campaigns and put their names on our bumpers.
Pledge of Allegiance.
“Liberty and Justice for all.” Sure. Did I see it, yeah, but when it hit me personally, well, I’ve had enough.
And if Mr Hospital donation was a halfway decent person, instead of donating his “profits” to a third party, he could have donated them back to the people who paid them. A donation, not a “legal” requirement.
I have received rebates from corporations in the past when they have realized something was overcalculated, possibly the electric company or gas company, I don’t remember.
What they didn’t do was name a building after themselves.
It’s easier to be an optimist when you are financially secure Lib. It’s that simple.
I was well on my way to doing that all by myself until I stuck my d in crazy, and the law treated my ex like the girl in the video from yesterday. Heroes believed her lies over my truths. Goebbles was right about lies, tell a big one. Law enforcement will believe you.
Interesting that the law, which is supposed to be blind, has no problem seeing boobs.
Slight difference between the way that girl was treated vs George Floyd.
He supposedly passed a fake 20, she could have killed someone with her driving.
Joyce,
I agree. I am very careful, double checking, when I send money using these services.
I have never sent an amount, however, that if I lost my world would end.
joyce says:
July 19, 2023 at 10:05 pm
Bystander/Phoenix,
I’m not disagreeing with you… merely saying there has to be at least a little personal responsibility. Is there a way to distinguish between ‘voluntarily’ sending money to someone you know, to someone you don’t know accidentally, and a phishing scam? Maybe there is and I’m completely ignorant. I do agree, conceptually, that offering a service with a lack of security and not disclosing the risks should have some kind of repercussions depending on the circumstances.
Lib: Some enemies have to be battled, or at least challenged, if not they control the narrative.
There are some really bad people out there, I have come to appreciate this over the last couple of years. And sadly, they can be some of the people you know or are even related to in some way. You hear the stories, and you are shocked, but you never expect it can be closer than you might think.
Quite frankly, I would overwhelmingly prefer eight figures invested in advances and care for young cancer patients than giving a few hundred thousand sub-640 FICO adults back a couple hundred bucks each for cigs, beer, and Mickey Ds…
The wonders of capitalism, if one disagrees with a loan rate or how the proprietor of the loan company disburses is income or his earnings… don’t patronize him
Left,
My point is that ACH fraud would be the responsibility of the bank to investigate and reimburse. Zelle does not have same responsibility. If I overpay someone through ACH then there is a process to get money back. With Zelle, you have little recourse and banks not obligated to do a thing.
Quite frankly, I would overwhelmingly prefer eight figures invested in advances and care for young cancer patients than giving a few hundred thousand sub-640 FICO adults back a couple hundred bucks each for cigs, beer, and Mickey Ds…
What about giving some single mothers money back so they could buy clothing for their children, or dental care, or a car that runs?
Sure, everyone who needs a loan is a smoking alcoholic on drugs in the rich person’s mind.
I grew up with nothing, family as poor as can be. I remember later on, after working for years, when Jerk O Bill Clinton and his ” NAFTA” put me out of work, and, being a white guy, was treated like a criminal at the Unemployment office.
I pulled myself up from that, vowing never to allow it to happen.
All it took to make it all come crashing down is one woman and a legal system.
My trip to DC just showed me how much bull shite the whole thing is.
The science stuff, yeah, that was great. But it won’t be long before all of that, things that were done for the good of humanity, will be the reason it gets destroyed.
There isn’t a thing that human greed won’t f up.
There was a display in one of the museums that showed global warming. It implicitly stated that humans were the cause of it. Can’t imagine what was going on inside the head of a Republican when they read that. Do they think it was political or scientific?
The older I get, the more I realize I have no idea what people are thinking or if they are thinking at all.
For you Lib, yeah, this is how it happens.
https://tinyurl.com/yap3y75n
3B,
On this economy. As long as our military continues to be the monster that it is (we spend more than the next 10 in the top 11 combined) and our leaders continue to be the war-mongering, imperialistic savages that they have been for the past 100 or so years, then the debt really doesn’t matter. What matters is that poorer economies around the world will continue to fund it (30%, up from 5% in 1970) and that’s with the rates on treasuries still close to historical lows. It’s so bad, China and Japan would rather invest in us than themselves (own 8% of our debt).
So look at the economy at a more macro level. The job market is still bonkers. Those who abuse credit will always be bailed out, whether it be an individual or a business. I suppose a silver lining for the former moral hazard abuser is that they can no longer refinance their mortgages.
Look at this chart.
https://shorturl.at/kJ045
We are back to where Trump left us off before the Pandemic. We now have interest rates that are what 5% higher? People are travelling and especially flying/cruising like mother fuckers. You might hate Biden and I’m not sure that he should take credit for it, but not only has the economy returned to the good times on his watch, but he managed to do it with the quickest and largest FED lending rate increase in the modern era. If Trump was relected, he would have still been begging for negative lending rates. And now the FED has bullets in their gun and they have stopped adding to their balance sheet.
So yes, there are definitely some potential headwinds in a slowing Chinese economy, in deteriorating personal debt and especially in the potential of housing to go kablooey again. But it looks like inflation has ceased (which makes sense since it was all stimulus driven) and AI, was mostly just noise. Just like the fleet of autonomous self-driving vehicles we were supposed to be in 5 to 10 years ago.
Powell will be the MAN of the year. Next year, Biden.
I also expect those who missed out, and there are a lot of them, to buy any major dip at this point. Though, I wouldn’t be surprised if the moves in the near term are more S&P 500 and DJIA and less in the high tech.
3B,
“You hear the stories, and you are shocked, but you never expect it can be closer than you might think”
And if it hits that close, like it did with Phoenix, well I’m also one crazy mofo. I don’t think I would ever resort to violence, but I can be incredibly creative when it comes to driving one insane. I am 52. The older I get, the more willing I am to risk danger to myself to make a point. You MAKE your own luck and karma. Never try my.
In my roller hockey days (way less equipment than ice) a complete moron decided to crack me in my privates on a center ice faceoff after I scored. In two seconds, I had his jersey pulled up so high over his head all he could see was darkness. After a round of five undefended uppercuts, I asked him if wanted to give up. He stupidly said, “No!” I threw him into the boards and told the refs I was going home so they don’t need to suspend me. Funny thing, they actually suspended the guy I completely wrecked, which was the right thing to do since he truly intended to injure my ability to spawn.
Don’t do something intentionally stupid to a person with a very high threshold for pain and whose adrenalin has a tendency to overpower his right state of mind. And definitely don’t put ketchup and pickles on a plain cheeseburger!
Lib: I hear you. Fortunately it’s not immediate family (blood) but close enough. How they sleep at night, I don’t know. But, when the time comes these people will turn on each other,that’s what their type does. It’s just a matter of time. I will say too, that if there are people you know who you believe are shady, it’s more than likely they are, not just shady, but dark, , no soul.
Did someone mention payments?
FEDNOW launched this week for instant payments.
FedNow is launching with 41 banks and 15 service providers certified to use the service, including community banks and large lenders like JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), Bank of New York Mellon (BK.N), and US Bancorp (USB.N), but the Fed plans to onboard more banks and credit unions this year.
The Fed said on Thursday in a statement that 35 banks and credit unions were currently utilizing the service, as well as the Treasury Department’s Bureau of Fiscal Service
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/fed-set-launch-long-awaited-instant-payments-service-modernizing-system-2023-07-20/
If it works anything like the treasury’s E-bond site, Venmo, Zelle and PayPal need not worry.
And definitely don’t put ketchup and pickles on a plain cheeseburger!
For those that haven’t read Libturd’s posts today, you won’t get this line. :)
Sometimes I wonder if anyone reads my gobbledygook?
Okay.
You have a handful of six different jelly beans. You like the flavor of five of them but there’s one that tastes a bit like Tide laundry detergent. What do you do with that sixth jellybean?
1) eat it first to get past the misery as quickly as possible.
2) eat it last so the flavor doesn’t get in your mouth and ruin the next five.
3) toss it into the trash.
Let’s see how well you know me. Which did I just do?
3b, I have a ton of family members (aunts, uncles, cousins) that fit that criteria. No soul, no morals, no loyalty. Seeing what they did to each other really was eye opening as a teenager.
BRT,
https://youtu.be/Wvc1I6jsPUo
Libturd,
No. 3 – tossed it in the trash.
Toss perfectly good food in the trash? Never.
4. Sell it online to Millenials who crave that Tide flavor.
Points for creativity, but no.
BTW, I looked it up. It’s supposed to be a mixed berry smoothie. Just terrible.
#1 then.
3b,
When you think you are crazy, everyone appears rich, market on fire and spending is off the charts, remember this little nugget from good ole USA.
While most workers say they want to retire someday, “roughly half the workforce, we’re talking 50 plus million people, work for an employer that doesn’t offer a retirement plan,” says a senior policy advisor at AARP.
“My point is that ACH fraud would be the responsibility of the bank to investigate and reimburse. Zelle does not have same responsibility.”
Intentionally so. Same as their competitors.
A new sector, peer-to-peer payments, surfaced threatening banks’ underlying products. Banks responded by forming a consortium that developed a service to directly compete with the established peer-to-peer payment companies like Paypal and Venmo.
On the same terms.
Still don’t see your point.
You expect the banks to build a competing product that replicates an already existing product of theirs (ACH, Fedwire)?
No One,
Correct! Thanks for playing.
The median retirement savings for all working age households in the US is around $95,776.
“What about giving some single mothers money back so they could buy clothing for their children, or dental care, or a car that runs?”
Red herring.
You want to redistribute corporate/personal earnings to the less well off raise the tax rates and expand social services…
Dude, you are body slamming a guy who founded a hospital for children from the proceeds of the sale of his company. And his family continues to donate to support it.
What the serious fuck is wrong with you?
I gets better for Gen X’ers.
“A big part of the problem is that far too many Gen Xers don’t have access to a retirement plan through their employer. Only 14 percent of Gen Xers have a pension plan, and only about half are participating in a retirement plan at their job,” Bond said. “As a result, a large share of Generation X has virtually nothing saved for retirement, and most who are saving are not close to savings targets that will enable them to retire with their current standard of living. Accruing savings takes time, and Social Security alone won’t provide enough retirement income. So it’s critically important that we change course quickly. The status quo means we are looking at elder poverty for many Gen Xers and pressure on their families for support.”
Additional key findings of the report are as follows:
Retirement savings for Gen X is highly concentrated among top earners. For the mean, the top quartile holds nearly $250,000, while the bottom quartile holds only $35,000.
The bottom half of Gen X households has almost nothing saved for retirement. When looking at the median, the bottom quartile has $200 saved for retirement, and the second quartile has $4,290.
The typical Generation X household only has $40,000 in retirement savings in private accounts.
There is a large discrepancy between average and median amounts of retirement savings, and this discrepancy holds across gender, race, income, and other measures.
Only fourteen percent of Gen X is covered by a defined benefit plan, and this low level of coverage is fairly consistent across gender and race.
Only about half (55%) of Gen Xers participate in an employer-sponsored retirement savings plan. For Hispanic Gen Xers, only 35% participate in an employer-sponsored retirement plan.
Across race, gender, marital status, or income, the vast majority of Gen Xers are failing to meet retirement savings targets. Nearly all Black and Hispanic Gen Xers have less than half of their retirement savings targets.
BRT: I have been fortunate in that I have not witnessed it until recently, and it’s it immediate or blood family and I am grateful for that. But, it’s as I said, still too close, I always knew some of them had no character, but it took another situation to trigger it to see just how rotten they are, and what they have done and are doing. As I said , soulless.
Bystander: That is unbelievable! Maybe they think their houses will bail them out? Meanwhile, party on!!
Many highly intelligent people can’t make money trading, yet many people without a single degree are multi-millionaires from trading.
So I’ll just leave this here:
The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading.
Victor Sperandeo
Threw on some low cost, high return SPY shorts today, breakeven 1% down, 4:1 payout. Could see a 6% or so pullback over the next four weeks or so.
Likely short a selective couple names tomorrow into next week’s earnings on similar basis.
Not bearish, some positions are just cheap while the shares are hitting some boundaries offering some serious asymmetric return potential…those two criteria combined usually produce near term good returns over an adequate data set.
My ADUS is up 2 days in a row. Old people celebrate!
Retirement out here? I think not.
That’s for Boomers. We paid $1m for homes they bought for $150k in 1981.
Phoenix: Is there any way to figure out how someone died? The only thing I see is an obit. I had an unexpected business proposal shunted to me through a corporate channel, and then I figured out who the person was. I knew the person. 44 years old, wife and two kids. Without knowing anything, I am guessing stroke, anuerysm or heart attack. He didn’t die immediately, I am guessing it took about a week. Probably an event, then brain dead and then pull the plug.
“then donating it for a children’s cancer wing for a hospital”
I was in the Imus building of the Sanzari Childrens hospital last week.
Bystander, had a HR interview this week. They are paying but while they want the high level, walk into a client and put them live over a couple of months they also want the low level coding and support to go with it. So there will be a bunch on Skills Assessments that I’m not going to do great on. The reason my skills are rusty is that I moved off the low level to the higher design roles. The lower level with the CLI skills is not going to have the client side skillset. They will have to work out what they want, as that unicorn doesn’t exist.
That said I should get a call back and that fact got me out of Jury Duty today. I can’t respond to interview requests if I am off the grid three days a week for the next three weeks. I asked to be moved to the front of the line for Jury selection so I don’t have to sit there for days while they convene a panel. They all had a conference and bounced me.
I am trying to sort out Vanguard retirement plans. I got the Rollover in there but having issues allocating it. I did throw a little at ADUS just to check everything is functioning on the stock trading side so I have to start tracking it. It will tie in with some AI stuff I am working on.
My big issue is getting cash into the i401K. There seems to be a big glitch in the system that I’m working with the support desk on.
Next up is a big decision. I am looking a few funds. Two in particular are attractive.
VHCIX Vanguard Health Care Index Fund Admiral Shares
VCSAX Vanguard Consumer Staples Fund
While they have low expense, they have a high (100K) minimum investment. Any thoughts here? Should I just look for a comparable ETF, if I don’t want to commit at that level to a single fund that’s not a target date fund.
Fab: Why do these two look attractive in particular (not meaning Vanguard, but sectors)?
Also, https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500
Check top 7 (8 but includes GOOG/GOOGL) are 28%+ of the market capitalization.
Next up is a big decision. I am looking a few funds. Two in particular are attractive.
VHCIX Vanguard Health Care Index Fund Admiral Shares
VCSAX Vanguard Consumer Staples Fund
Lefty,
You would be proud. Threw my ethics to the side, and shorted DNA from 2.47 to 2.31. I posted last night how i felt the rally topped…and acted on it. This OCD paying off. I am reading DNA like a book. Just riding these swings both directions. Gave up long-term capital gains, but I had to do it.
As of right now, can no longer stake new ETH in NJ due to judicial bs. So, will just leave that position into infinite collecting a percentage till 15-20 years from now. I don’t need that money, just let it ride and see where it goes while collecting interest.
Lib,
Funny, we both know market timing is for losers. Yet, we keep doing it, and on point. Pretty wild to partake in.
Contrarian in me, time the f’ing market. It is everything when it comes to investing. Play the cycles, don’t hold. Like right now, based on human psychology, go back into the safety sectors. It’s already starting, taking tech wins, to the safe zone.
You are insane.
I hope the trend of moving out of Dallas increases. I don’t get why people move here. There’s literally nothing, but divorce lawyers, unpredictable weather, and a thousand restaurants that all make the same kind of food.
https://twitter.com/mmafayce/status/1681865875152928769?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
I tried to tell people to not leave the northeast…but to each and their own. You were warned on this blog all last decade what comes with the “it” locations and it’s all coming true.
The irony, going to end up spending more money trying to escape northeast costs because get this…ideal places to live and raise a family cost massive amounts of money. Whoa..
Face,
You called me insane 10 years ago on this blog when I said to take out as much free money as the banks will give you and go buy real estate. How that work out, pal?
I was screaming to buy DNA earlier in the year. Saying to buy it cheap. Couple a months and 100% later. LG life is good.
And talk about learning from mistakes. I have huge respect for left and lib, but i learned from past mistakes like the sirius trade example. I will never make that mistake again. Lefty made sense when he was talking me off DNA, but I had to hold my conviction. Was not make the same mistake again, and didn’t. Hardest buys are the best buys. Easy buys are losers.
If the investment seems too easy or too good to be true…walk the f’k away. Fast. Money don’t come easy.
Honestly, if you had followed BRT, LEFT, LIB, and myself….you would be f’ing rich had you been investing over the last 10 years. Knocked it out of the park. It’s truly remarkable to witness on a nj real estate blog, but it’s all there. NJ is special. Wink lol
Like you can’t make this stuff up. BRT calls me out. I call out APPLE and Amazon before they were cool investments last decade. Didn’t even go FAANG. Went more specific…apple and amazon. Crack, see you later!!
Remember when they said apple was dead at the time of the call. Lmao. I was like wtf?! I live in this ecosystem. These analysts are nuts and they were.
Peter Lynch ran the Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990. Lynch started with $20 million and grew it $14 billion in AUM during his tenure. The Magellan Fund delivered a compounded annual return of approximately 29.2% compared to 15% on the S&P 500.
“When the fund reached a billion, critics said it’s too big, stop managing it, then $3 billion, they said get out now. In the last five years I managed the fund we beat 99% of all funds and it was the largest fund in the country. That’s what I’m most proud of.”
In May of 1990, Peter Lynch retired at the age of 46.
“One of the reasons I left Magellan was that I wanted to retire while I still had a good record. I left the party when the cake and champagne were still being served.”
I love Peter Lynch. We all love Peter Lynch. Why? We never saw him decline.
microcapclub.com/2023/07/going-…
Honestly, if you had followed BRT, LEFT, LIB, and myself…
Should I have followed them when they disagreed with you? You have a poor understanding of the English language and well basically everything else. You are insane. Evidence is above.
Chi,
It comes down to that those two funds top holdings cover a broad swathe of the companies from the number 10 spot in your list downwards. But still comes down to its a big minimum to swallow.
The top 10 Outside of Buffet I will have to do a deep dive into. Even today we have Apple announcing GPT, Meta Open Sourcing LLaMa, Microsoft announcing Bing Chat and Meta on Azure. We have Amazon ReInvent next week in New York. They will come out swinging.
I need all this to settle down because that 28% market cap is about to go into a cage match at they may all take a hit. At this point my money is on Microsoft, but I am not putting money on the table.
On a side note, thank you for the discussion. It is appreciated.
Apologies it is the AWS Summit in Javits next week and not ReInvent.
Is anyone going wants to do a GTG?