Too much money, too few options, more records

From News 12:

Home prices on Long Island hit record high 

Home prices on Long Island are hitting record highs this summer.

In July, Nassau County’s median closing price was $725,000.

The price is $30,000 more than the month before, and the highest on record. 

Meanwhile, Suffolk’s median closing price was also up — tying a record high at $575,000.

The numbers are according to OneKey MLS, which tracks housing prices.  

This entry was posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, NYC. Bookmark the permalink.

124 Responses to Too much money, too few options, more records

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. Jim says:

    How does he do that?

    Good job dentss!


  3. Very Stable Genius says:

    UPS drivers’ new $170k per year deal shows that unions (and Joe Biden) may just save the middle class after all.

    Bidenomics and a strong labor movement are in full effect as full-time UPS drivers win a high six figures.

    August 08, 2023 5:49 PM EDT

  4. leftwing says:

    “I am even thinking about joining lefty in the options world.”

    I can say with absolute certainty there is little resemblance to what I do with the actions of anyone you follow online.

  5. grim says:

    There was a good article on the UPS $170k number a few days ago.

    It’s really not $170k, the $170k represents the total aggregate value of the comp package, including things like the employer portion of healthcare, the full boat cost of the pension program, all benefits, etc. Feels like it’s cast as wider than what most would consider the “fully burdened cost” per employee. I believe it’s also based on some expectation of overtime as well and takes into account current tenure/seniority.

    Anyone of the street is looking at that number and comparing it to their own pre-tax salary number is not comparing apples to apples.

    Nobody is walking into UPS tomorrow and getting a $170k salary job as a new driver. In fact, you may not even be offered a driver job at all.

    If I were to wager a guess, it’s going to be about $35-45 an hour maybe. I’m still impressed by college-age nephew got a forklift job making north of $20 an hour with them. That’s great. He’s studying tech and NJIT. If he plays his cards right, he can parlay that into a decent IT job post-graduation.

  6. ExEx says:

    BIL is management at UPS. They’re non-Union and see no benefit from the new contract. He’s retiring in two months. Has hated his job for decades.

  7. No One says:

    UPS drivers have long had some of the best compensation in the transport industry.
    The same union that arranged that deal also helped put the nail in the coffin for Yellow’s union employees. Bloomberg radio had the union boss as a guest to take a victory lap on the UPS contract, I assume he didn’t come back to explain how he helped bankrupt Yellow. UPS has a better business model than Yellow. They can’t squeeze blood from a stone.

    Unions can be good or bad for employees depending on the kinds of deals they make. I was in a union for 3 years. Their contract and attitude to compensation ensured that the company kept and overpaid mediocre or worse employees based on longevity, and let newer, more talented and ambitious employees leave. Which eventually led to the whole department being shut down some time after I left. I don’t know if every union is as short-sighted as that, to reward mediocrity and punish excellence, but that was definitely the tone of the union I paid dues to. I hear that industrial labor unions in Germany are a bit smarter, but don’t really know. They have representatives on company Board of Supervisors, so may be better informed about the need of companies to maintain their competitive advantages to grow and thrive.
    Here’s a snippet that helps explain what unions can and can’t be expected to do.
    The power of labor unions to raise wages over the long run and for the whole working population has been enormously exaggerated. This exaggeration is mainly the result of failure to recognize that wages are basically determined by labor productivity. It is for this reason, for example, that wages in the United States were incomparably higher than wages in England and Germany all during the decades when the “labor movement” in the latter two countries was far more advanced.

    In spite of the overwhelming evidence that labor productivity is the fundamental determinant of wages, the conclusion is usually forgotten or derided by labor union leaders and by that large group of economic writers who seek a reputation as “liberals” by parroting them. But this conclusion does not rest on the assumption, as they suppose, that employers are uniformly kind and generous men eager to do what is right. It rests on the very different assumption that the individual employer is eager to increase his own profits to the maximum. If people are willing to work for less than they are really worth to him, why should he not take the fullest advantage of this? Why should he not prefer, for example, to make $1 a week out of a workman rather than see some other employer make $2 a week out of him? And as long as this situation exists, there will be a tendency for employers to bid workers up to their full economic worth.

    All this does not mean that unions can serve no useful or legitimate function. The central function they can serve is to assure that all of their members get the true market value of their services.

    For the competition of workers for jobs, and of employers for workers, does not work perfectly. Neither individual workers nor individual employers are likely to be fully informed concerning the conditions of the labor market. An individual worker, without the help of a union or a knowledge of “union rates,” may not know the true market value of his services to an employer. And he is, individually, in a much weaker bargaining position. Mistakes of judgment are far more costly to him than to an employer. If an employer mistakenly refuses to hire a man from whose services he might have profited, he merely loses the net profit he might have made from employing that one man; and he may employ a hundred or a thousand men. But if a worker mistakenly refuses a job in the belief that he can easily get another that will pay him more, the error may cost him dear. His whole means of livelihood is involved. Not only may he fail promptly to find another job offering more; he may fail for a time to find another job offering remotely as much. And time may be the essence of his problem, because he and his family must eat. So he may be tempted to take a wage that he knows to be below his “real worth” rather than face these risks. When an employer’s workers deal with him as a body, however, and set a known “standard wage” for a given class of work, they may help to equalize bargaining power and the risks involved in mistakes.”

  8. grim says:

    By this same definition, pretty much every police officer makes more, every firefighter makes more, I’d wager a bit that most public service field workers make more.

  9. Juice Box says:

    170k is pay and benefits for the long haul truck drivers with CDLs, it’s about 95 cents a mile.

    145k for delivery drivers at the end of this contract, hourly pay will rise to $49 per hour and about $50,000 is benefits.

    Part time is going up to $25. Again it’s not today it’s four years from now.

    as Grim said it pay plus all benefits.

    Sill decent…

  10. 1987 Condo says:

    The fact that people went around thinking or saying that a UPS working was making an actual salary of $170,000, and implying it was either in effect immediately or a starting pay, is very sad and disappointing…..

  11. Chicago says:

    Ten at 423 area. Pushing up against resistance. Let’s see where this goes.

    Jackson Hole in two weeks

  12. Fast Eddie says:

    UPS drivers’ new $170k per year deal shows that unions (and Joe Biden) may just save the middle class after all.

    Bidenomics and a strong labor movement are in full effect as full-time UPS drivers win a high six figures.

    “Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su told CNN Tuesday the Biden administration did not intervene or participate in labor negotiations between UPS and the Teamsters.

    “No, the parties make this agreement on their own– and I think that’s an important thing,” Su told CNN’s Boris Sanchez in an interview from the White House.”

  13. No One says:

    I have heard that UPS drivers can take on extra shifts or work over time to make even more money than their base.

    My SIL worked in UPS management for at least 20 years. When she was starting she and her family rented space in a UPS driver’s house who was always hustling to make money, focused on saving money so that he could buy another house, get married. Last I heard he eventually made an upper-middle class life for himself.

    My SIL got semi-rich by borrowing to buy the maximum possible UPS stock pre-IPO, which basically doubled her money on day 1. But then it didn’t go up further for about the next 10 yrs.

    UPS has or had some strict rules about no dating within the company, rules about family too I think. I guess trying to avoid nepotism. I’m surprised that kind of restriction hasn’t been found illegal.

  14. Very Stable Genius says:

    In most corporates 20% of the labor force keeps the enterprise above water.

    “Their contract and attitude to compensation ensured that the company kept and overpaid mediocre or worse employees based on longevity, and let newer, more talented and ambitious employees leave.”

  15. Mike S says:

    Still seeing many houses in montclair area close $500K over… $850–> $1.35 is typical

    Guess everyone makes $500K ?

  16. Phoenix says:

    In most corporates 20% of the labor force keeps the enterprise above water.

    “Their contract and attitude to compensation ensured that the company kept and overpaid mediocre or worse employees based on longevity, and let newer, more talented and ambitious employees leave.”

    So 80 percent of cops and teachers su ck?

  17. BRT says:

    Id say 15 percent of teachers suck. 50 percent are doing their jobs at an acceptable level. 35 percent are really good at their jobs. The union tries to ensure they all make the same.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    There was another house in my neighborhood listed this past week that had an open house last weekend. Last night, it had an “under contract” sign placed on the lawn. This is the new normal. Four walls and a roof nets you a retirement fund.

  19. No One says:

    Yes, that’s the problem I had with my union. Not only being anti-merit based performance philosophically, but also basing pay primarily upon time, regardless of performance. And most of their actual time and effort was spent protecting the bottom performers’ jobs. So not surprisingly, bottom performers were the most enthusiastic supporters of the union.

  20. No One says:

    Idea for a new housing union. Every home owner in the neigborhood joins the union and agrees that sale prices are only allowed to be based on tenure within the neighborhood. The older the better. Condition of the house, size, lot, landscaping, attractiveness, smell of cigarettes and cabbage is all irrelevant. It’s “equitable” as they say.

  21. ExEx says:

    It’ll be hilarious to see Trump’s mug shot with his height and weight.
    Any guesses??? Hahahaha

  22. Very Stable Genius says:


    350 pounds

    ExEx says:
    August 16, 2023 at 1:05 pm
    It’ll be hilarious to see Trump’s mug shot with his height and weight.
    Any guesses??? Hahahaha

  23. Fast Eddie says:

    No One,

    The Housing Union thing sounds like a plan. Though, democrats will use it as a campaign weapon claiming too many house owners are at an unfair advantage and will demand payments to the “poor” as well as taxes on the sale. It will be called the “Equity Allocation Treaty for Mass Equality” or “EAT ME” for short and will be ripe for abuse and pilfering of the productive class to fund democrat coiffures.

  24. Hold my beer says:

    Charlie munger interview

  25. chicagofinance says:

    Ten 425
    Get your popcorn……..

  26. Juice Box says:

    Beer – Munger’s point is not a new one, the politicians always get used to easy money and massive deficit borrowing. For example, where were are now, it’s about $5 billion a day in US government borrowing.

    Eventually spending on interest will be the single largest line item in the federal budget at the current interest rates and borrowing. Munger mentions when this happened in the past countries default on payment and go to a strongman route.

    This is not a popular thing to say but the latest country is actually Ukraine. They have stopped paying their debt and well-suspended elections too.

    Who knows when it will come to be here? Munger says the dollar goes to zero in a hundred years. It could be sooner or well later, nobody really can say for sure, we may be like Japan or maybe not.

  27. 3b says:

    Juice: Whenever it is, we are on the decline, and I don’t see that changing. At some point the far left,or the far right is going to run the country, there is no middle ground anymore.

  28. No One says:

    The US dollar has lost about 97% of its purchasing power since the Federal Reserve Act passed in 1913. Should be on track for a similar diminution over the next 100.
    But most academic economists think it’s a good thing, which says something about them.

  29. OC1 says:

    “The US dollar has lost about 97% of its purchasing power since the Federal Reserve Act passed in 1913.”

    Yeah, US standard of living was much better back in 1913.

  30. chicagofinance says:


    Bond Yield Hits Highest Since 2008, Adding Pressure to Borrowing Costs
    Bets that interest rates will fall have suppressed 10-year yields for most of 2023, but analysts warn that may be changing
    By Sam Goldfarb
    Updated Aug. 16, 2023 4:33 pm ET

    The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit a 15-year high, threatening steeper costs for many borrowers and raising concern on Wall Street about the potential fallout in the stock, bond and housing markets.

    A key benchmark for interest rates across the economy, the 10-year yield settled at 4.258%, according to Tradeweb. That was up from 4.220% Tuesday and marked its highest close since June 2008, months before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and expansive Federal Reserve policy ushered in more than a decade of historically low bond yields.

    The rise in yields is making investors nervous, because past surges have at times proved destabilizing for markets. With the 10-year yield still well below the level of short-term interest rates set by the Fed, some analysts see ample room for it to keep climbing—a development that could lead to unexpected disruptions, as investors are forced to unwind wagers based on projections for lower yields.

    U.S. stocks fell Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping roughly 181 points, or 0.5%.

    When investors start demanding higher yields on longer-term bonds to compensate for the risk of inflation, that “is correlated with lower risk-asset prices,” said Zhiwei Ren, a portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management. “I think that’s what markets are worried about right now.”

    The 10-year yield has been climbing for weeks based largely on a run of solid economic data, which has prompted many investors to abandon bets that the U.S. is headed toward a recession over the next six to 12 months. Higher yields mean lower bond prices.

    Longer-term yields got an extra boost this month when the Treasury Department announced that it would need to borrow more than anticipated in the coming months to finance the federal budget deficit. That is forcing investors to buy more bonds than they might have wanted.

    Long-term bond yields largely reflect investors’ expectations for what short-term rates set by the Fed will average over the life of a bond, though they can also be affected by other factors, such as investor sentiment about the health of markets and the global economy.

    The new milestone for the 10-year yield is a stark reminder of how much the economy has changed since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

    For years, developed economies across the globe appeared stuck in a perpetual state of sluggish growth, tepid inflation and ultralow interest rates, which even experiments with deficit-financed tax cuts or spending programs did little to change. Now, central banks are working hard to tame inflation, short-term rates are at their highest levels in decades and the U.S. economy, in particular, is barely slowing down. U.S. stock indexes have risen significantly this year.

    “We’re in a different world,” said Leah Traub, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Lord Abbett.

    The main difference, she said, is that inflation remains comfortably above the Fed’s 2% target, which will make the central bank reluctant to cut interest rates even if the economy does start to falter.

    In fact, inflation—which surged in 2021, driving the Fed to embark on a historic series of interest-rate increases in 2022—has shown some signs of cooling in recent months.

    That has made the recent jump in yields particularly noteworthy. Instead of betting that the Fed will have to raise interest rates ever higher to defeat inflation and then start cutting them once a recession arrives, investors are wagering that the Fed may be done raising rates but also further away from any cuts.

    That has helped drive up longer-term bond yields relative to shorter-term ones, in a reversal of the dominant trend over the past year-and-a-half. Minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy meeting released Wednesday afternoon added to recent signs that officials are growing more cautious about raising rates.

    Higher yields have wide-ranging consequences for financial markets and the economy.

    Though they don’t have to hurt stocks if investors are simultaneously lifting their outlook for corporate profits, they can reduce the appeal of riskier assets by offering investors a more attractive risk-free return if they hold Treasurys to maturity.

    For many, the most important fallout will be the impact on mortgage rates, which are closely linked to the 10-year yield.

    An extended period of higher bond yields would be a disappointment for recent home buyers who have been rooting for rates to fall so that they can refinance their mortgages, along with others waiting to buy a home. The average rate on the standard 30-year fixed mortgage has climbed to 6.96%, up from about 5% a year ago.

    Looking ahead, many investors say that the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., later this month could mark an important moment for the bond market, particularly since the central bank has said that the theme of the meeting will be “structural shifts in the global economy.”

    That has led to speculation among investors that officials and economists could discuss not just where rates need to go in the short-term but where they might settle over the longer-term. That somewhat theoretical exercise could nonetheless help drive the 10-year yield even higher, some investors say.

    Others, though, still don’t buy the increasingly popular argument that there have been fundamental changes to the economy that will prevent interest rates from falling back to their prepandemic levels, when the 10-year Treasury yield averaged about 2%.

    “I do think we’re seeing a little bit more resilience in the economy, but it doesn’t really change what I would see as sort of the medium-term risks to the economy,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

    The unemployment rate, he added, is unsustainably low, putting the economy at high risk of a recession.

    The 10-year yield, notably, has climbed above 4% other times over the past year only to fall back below 3.5% in relatively short order.

    Bond yields, and markets generally, will continue to be heavily influenced by inflation data.

    “If we get a really hot inflation print one of these months, that changes everything,” said Matthew Tuttle, chief executive of Tuttle Capital Management.

  31. Old realtor says:

    The DNC is centrist to the point of exclusion. No love for Bernie Sanders or AOC coming from the DNC. On the other hand, RNC has been taken over by Trumpers. Not saying Trump fits any conventional political label, but Trumpers are about as far away from the center as possible.

    Despite the shitty choice of voting for an 80+ year old candidate, there is nothing extreme about Joe Biden except his age.

  32. leftwing says:

    Party ‘centrists’ are the problem, not the solution.

    They are the ones that hit the iceberg. Now you want them to man the lifeboats….

  33. Old realtor says:

    Hit the iceberg? Not arguing about being in decline but an iceberg would be an analogy for something catastrophic. The closest thing we have had to an iceberg is Trump.

    It is unrealistic to believe that tearing down the system is possible. As much as you may hate it, one would get the impression from what you write here that the existing system has treated you pretty well.

  34. ExEx says:

    Fix the electoral college. Bind electors to the popular vote in each state.
    Establish term limits and minimum IQ test for congress.

  35. ExEx says:


    Trump 5′ 11″ …270 lbs

    “Morbidly obese” by medical standards

  36. leftwing says:

    IDK Old, I’d say the iceberg analogy is apt…overly confident crew, no one looking out for obvious dangers, once hit discounting the impact, and poor preparation for an adverse outcome.

    I’d say as a nation we’re somewhere between the second and third point.

    Not looking to tear the system down.

    Do believe it is imperative the ‘Parties’ must be neutered, and especially the established players therein who promote being ‘centrists’ to act out vested self interests to preserve this dysfunctional status quo.

    We need a third way…an independent (lower case intentional) grass roots movement that claims the swing vote to force the Parties’ hands to provide real candidates. Or else.

    We specifically do not need more career politician (how is that even a profession) ‘centrists’ like Bush, McCain, Clinton, Biden, etc….

  37. leftwing says:

    Electoral College is not broken. It is in fact working exactly as intended.

  38. ExEx says:

    The Electoral College gives disproportionate voting power to states, favoring the smaller states with more electoral votes per person.
    For instance, each individual vote in Wyoming counts nearly four times as much in the Electoral College as each individual vote in Texas. This is because Wyoming has three (3) electoral votes for a population of 532,668 citizens (as of 2008 Census Bureau estimates) and Texas has thirty-two (32) electoral votes for a population of almost 25 million. By dividing the population by electoral votes, we can see that Wyoming has one “elector” for every 177,556 people and Texas has one “elector” for about every 715,499. The difference between these two states of 537,943 is the largest in the Electoral College.

  39. leftwing says:

    “The Electoral College gives disproportionate voting power to states, favoring the smaller states with more electoral votes per person.”

    Yes, again, the Electoral College is working exactly as intended.

    The number of Electors is defined by the number of Senators and Representatives. As each State has two Senators regardless of population the Electoral College will have a similar ‘disproportionate’ representation as the States do in the Senate.

  40. leftwing says:

    Thought you taught History?

  41. ExEx says:

    7:23 nope.

  42. Fabius Maximusa says:
    Jack Hopkins @thejackhopkins

    FOX News is reporting that Governor Katie Hobbs-Arizona-has approved the State Attorney General ELECTION FRAUD Case Which will be indictment number FIVE for Donald Trump. Happy Wednesday.

  43. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Credit event looking more and more likely by the day. Prob smart to get the f’k out of the market.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    August 15, 2023 at 10:47 pm
    Based on what I see from him…dude, is always too early. I am still expecting market to run up if we don’t hit a credit dilemma in the economy into December. I expect DNA to test 3 by then. Pain is coming, but current move is still “buy the dip.”

  44. Juice Box says:

    Interesting story… lawyer behind the fake elector plot is a liberal Harvard educated lawyer now in hiding in Puerto Rico.

    I know I know Donnie came up with the plan himself he is after all a stable genius..

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thing is… the way everyone really gets f’ed is you rally hard from here into the end of the month. After last bulls in, they pull the rug.

    If you are greedy, you play it, but I am getting nervous for a rug pool at anytime. Really impossible to read market right now. Writing says f’ed…but who knows when they decide to pull the rug.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    TA guys…

    Might be one more rally left.

    “S&P 500 McClellan Oscillator hits -100 today.

    In last 4-yrs, only 1 time did $SPX not rally 4%+ within next 30 days after reaching such oversold level. $SPY”

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:



  48. The Great Pumpkin says:


    “Why didn’t they say anything about those same options fueling the rally from May until July?”

  49. 1987 Condo says:

    For Chi, 10 year at 4.3.

    I’m relinquishing my CFP and trading it in for Emeritus status.?

  50. Chicago says:

    1987: Cripes. Now what? We touched this level last October, so obviously it means something. However, there is no reason for us to stay here. As a frame of reference, once we move beyond this level, the last time we were here was 2007.

  51. grim says:


    So, the vampire squid is upset because for once, it wasn’t them doing the f*cking?

  52. leftwing says:

    Haha, magician diversion. I’m sure the left hand is full in the pocket while the right hand was the subject of the ‘look over there, it’s the market structure’.

    Biggest gains for these firms come from changes in market structure, think HFT as an example. The icing on the cake is those outsize profits are also pretty opaque.

    The specific source is relatively invisible to the general public, ie very different from booking a $500m gain on some high profile market/company event

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    NYT today. Don’t worry, everything is okay! Lmfao!!!

    Good, but not too good
    Over the past few weeks, sentiments about the economy have gone from bleak to optimistic.

    Inflation is down. The U.S. is still adding jobs, but not so quickly that it is prompting fears of an overheating labor market. Wages are now rising faster than prices, but also not quickly enough to renew worries about higher inflation. In short: The economy is good, but not too good.

    What does it all mean for you? The chances of a job-wrecking, wage-crushing recession appear lower than they have in years.

    America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, has been working since 2022 to cool the economy and, with it, inflation. Yet each step the Fed took to raise the cost of borrowing money carried risks — namely, going too far and causing an economic downturn. While it’s too early for the Fed to declare victory, economists are now more optimistic that the economy will make a so-called soft landing: Prices will stabilize without a recession.

    “Things are good,” my colleague Jeanna Smialek, who covers the U.S. economy, told me. “But I wouldn’t want to overstate it.”

    Balancing act
    To understand what is happening with the economy, let’s look at the Federal Reserve. It has a dual mandate: to stabilize prices while keeping unemployment low.

    The two goals can be at odds. Consider this scenario: If employers are rapidly adding jobs, there may not be enough workers to fill all the new positions. Knowing this, employers can entice applicants by offering higher pay. To fund those higher wages, companies might try to raise their prices. This is just one of many ways a strong economy can lead to higher prices — also known as inflation.

    This dynamic is why traditionally good economic news can turn into bad news during inflationary periods. America is adding a lot of jobs? That may be an overheating labor market and could cause prices to rise. Wages are up? That could translate to higher prices from companies and too much demand from consumers.

    The Federal Reserve’s recent mission has been to make sure the economy does not become or remain too good. By raising interest rates, it hoped to slow lending, investment and, eventually, inflation. In doing so, it also risked suppressing the economy to the point of a recession. That scenario played out in the 1980s after years of stubbornly high inflation, and many economists had feared that a repeat would be needed to bring down prices today.

    So far, though, the economy appears to have reached a better balance. Last month, prices were up 3.2 percent compared with a year before, down from a peak of 9.1 percent last summer. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent, near a record low. And wage growth again surpassed inflation, as this chart by my colleague Ashley Wu shows:

    Uncertain times
    None of this is a guarantee of future prosperity. The economy is tremendously complex, and it often takes turns that few saw coming. Inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent, and minutes from July’s Fed meeting released yesterday suggest policymakers are determined to slow it further. Some experts are more optimistic now, but they tend to mix that outlook with caution.

    As Jeanna said, “We’re just going to have to be patient.”

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Things are good? Are you f’ing insane? Try going to buy a car or house with credit. I want to punch these f’ers in the face for lying about how good things are. The real estate market is literally in shambles, it’s dead, and you are over here thinking things are fine because of a low unemployment rate and raises rising quicker than inflation.

    Next, they will say no one could see this coming. Jokers. When you raise rate this fast in that short amount of time….it’s going to break something.

  55. Hold my beer says:

    This is the best song I’ve heard in years. Just a man standing in the woods playing a resonator/steel guitar and singing with real emotion.

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    15 to 24yr/olds represent the future…55 to 64yr/olds the tail end of the working population. The pig, that began fully passing through the python in ’79, is now coming out the other end. There is nothing that can fix this…although an obscene amount of debt is about to be created to mask this simple fact.

    the demographic driven debt-splosion is set to accelerate into a real mess. A reset, bankruptcy, war, you name it…but this is game, set, match for the current system. Fully expect something else (planned, chaos, I really don’t know) will be taking over in the relatively near-future. This current system is done.

    Curious how that handoff of US population growth to the 65+yr/old population is translating into jobs? Not so much! (since ‘YE 19, 65+yr/old population +4.3 million persons…-200k employees).

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Check link for charts.

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “demographic driven waves of demand (in the rear-view mirror) followed by federal debt and QE driven waves of demand. What’s next???”

  59. Libturd says:

    Excellent tune HMB. He sort of sounds like a white Hosier.

  60. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Really gives you something to think about if you are trying to solve the demand issue. At what cost to the young and working class?

    “I have wondered if the bond rate hikes have more to do with ensuring that retirees can support aggregate demand than anything else…”

  61. Libturd says:

    It’s all noise Pumps. What was said yesterday is forgotten today. What is said today is forgotten tomorrow.

    Of course credit looks bad. That was the goal of raising interest rates. To slow the spending. So much of the spending is credit based. Guess what? It’s slowing. As intended.

  62. 3b says:

    Rates are just getting back to normal after more than a decade of artificially low rates. Of course, it will cause damage, but that is the Feds fault for keeping rates so low in the first place.

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Looks like new rally will start based on what I am seeing. Just remember, a credit event is most likely coming. Something is going to break if bonds keep going crazy. Bonds are supposed to be a source of stability, the rock foundation of our economy. Right now it’s a penny stock. The bond market doesn’t even know what is going on…let that sink in.

  64. Phoenix says:

    Of course, it will cause damage.

    Damage to whom ? What generation is this going to affect the most.

    Is it going to affect the affluent as much as the poor? The working man vs the executive?

    And for those who are “damaged”, who is going to profit from said damage?

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:


    It’s all about demand in the economy. Based on the debt out there, high rates are not sustainable. You grew up in a world with less debt. Your generation created it to sustain your living standards. You are now passing on that debt while demanding higher rates to service said debt on the new working class replacing you.

    Aka I see zero chance of rates remaining high. It’s not possible.

  66. Phoenix says:


    Good singer. Too bad his songs are about people in America that it’s government doesn’t give a rat’s a zz about.

    All of those poor downtrodden working men paying taxes, having no tax breaks, no write offs, then having their money sent to Ukraine and other places while their families starve, their kids have no dental care, and their landlord won’t fix the roof after jacking up the rent.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You are correct, this has happened all last decade, but I do believe the game is about to get destroyed. They always find a way out somehow, will this time be different? I just believe costs are out of control and is not sustainable.

    Libturd says:
    August 17, 2023 at 9:22 am
    It’s all noise Pumps. What was said yesterday is forgotten today. What is said today is forgotten tomorrow.

    Of course credit looks bad. That was the goal of raising interest rates. To slow the spending. So much of the spending is credit based. Guess what? It’s slowing. As intended.

  68. 3b says:

    Phoenix: The damage is to the younger generations and it’s already here, and unfortunately will get worse. I have been talking about this for years, while it was party on with low, rates and massive asset appreciation, and debt is not a problem nonsense. Now that’s reversed, and the cries are to lower rates yet again. Artificially low rates distort/ destroy an economy.

  69. Phoenix says:

    The real estate market is literally in shambles.

    Real estate should be about buying a f in house and living in it.

    And it’s perfectly fine for the older generation as they either own or have low interest rates, exactly what they wanted and voted for. They can die in those homes.

    Thanks to the sacrifices made by the younger generations during Covid, the boomer locusts have profited massively.

    Boomer doesn’t need to worry about interest rates. He is driving his last car now. And if not, he can just pay in cash.

  70. Phoenix says:

    I agree, and have so for a long time.

    Boomer generation has done the most damage to future generations and the planet in general.

    Only thing they haven’t done yet is start a nuclear war- but it seems they are hard at work trying to accomplish that as well.

  71. Phoenix says:

    My kid goes to see the Barbie movie. I haven’t seen it, but I heard about one scene with a group of Mattel board members.

    I asked her, ” Do you remember a scene in the movie with the board members of Mattel in it?” She replied “yes,” I then asked her how many women were on the board of “Barbie Movie Mattel” and she said “None.”

    In real life it’s 5 women and 7 men. I explained to her she is watching a propaganda movie. Why would you make a movie like this and purposely deceive the viewers of this fact when it is so readily available unless you were trying to make some sort of false statement?

    Everyone in America has some sort of agenda they are trying to push.

    This, plus social media and AI is going to create some effed up humans in the next ten years.

  72. Hold my beer says:

    Lib and Phoenix.

    That song really strikes a chord with people from all walks of life. He’s got a great voice for bluegrass /old school country. In a week he’s gone from unknown to having 15 songs on iTunes to 100. He performed in front of 20 people at a farmers market. Radio WV saw him and asked if they could record a video of him on his land. 3 days after the video came out he went back to the same farmers market to perform and there were thousands there to watch and they sang along with him.

  73. Fast Eddie says:


    Cool song… truly authentic. It somehow reminds me of a once classic America.

  74. No One says:

    Yes it’s propaganda. But the worst isn’t just that Mattel male/female board membership is misrepresented. It’s that every single man in the movie is dumb, unserious, and impotent (in every sense of the word). Think about it, Barbie is a double-team of Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach producing.

    Yellowstone, the series, has a lot of flaws, but I think the reason for its surprise popularity is that at least the first couple of seasons shows characters drenched in masculinity, and serious battles, outdoors. Even the hot daughter is full of testosterone and “toxic masculinity”.

    In recent decades, Hollywood has generally been so focused on elevating women as the true heroes, while telling males that they are born with some sort of original sin of toxic masculinity that they must be counseled/trained/or literally neutered out of them of that any exception to that narrative increasingly stands out.

  75. leftwing says:

    “Rates are just getting back to normal after more than a decade of artificially low rates…”

    Rates are just getting back to normal after a 40 year bull market in bonds that drove rates in one direction only, upper left on the chart to lower right.

  76. ExEx says:

    Fragile masculine egos, “…classical America….”, grievance politics.


  77. leftwing says:

    “The real estate market is literally in shambles. Real estate should be about buying a f in house and living in it.”

    LOL. Are you serious?

    This entire board is testament and ground zero to the flaws you note. Where do you think these attitudes emanate and conditions originate? Kansas? Other flyover states and locales that posters here would never deign to live let alone visit (yet somehow seem comfortable sending their progeny to the same State Universities)?

    The conflict is not boomer vs. other generations…it’s self-entitled self-absorbed insecure coastal and metropolitan pricks vs. for lack of a better phrase Fast Eddie’s ‘traditional valuists’.

    You want to see the problem….drive around your town looking left and right at people aged 30 through 75.

    Leave the 63 year old plant manager in the middle of Michigan the fuck alone…he is not of your world. Nor does he desire to be.

    But by all means laugh at his politics and religion and deride him for his age all while you log into your zillow dashboard each day featuring your property’s zestimate…smh

  78. leftwing says:

    1987Condo….you a CFP?

  79. ExEx says:

    All that stupidity and this:

    A Texas woman has been charged with threatening to kill the judge overseeing a criminal case against Donald Trump.

    Abigail Jo Shry, 43, allegedly called US District Judge Tanya Chutkan a “stupid slave” and used another racial slur in a voicemail message left at the Washington courthouse.

    She is reported to have said: “You are in our sights, we want to kill you… If Trump doesn’t get elected in 2024, we are coming to kill you, so tread lightly, b—-. You will be targeted personally, publicly, your family, all of it.”

    Ms Shry also threatened to kill Sheila Jackson Lee, a Democratic congresswoman from Texas who is running for mayor of Houston, according to a criminal complaint.

  80. ExEx says:

    In “classical America” Trump would be executed.

  81. Phoenix says:

    No One,

    I haven’t seen the movie. Not disputing what you say. But just as I am in my career, I like to look at hard evidence, numbers, etc. That is measurable.

    So when you make a movie like this that is not just supposed to be humor, but also sending a message, then you conveniently distort the facts about how many men/women are running a company, I find it disturbing. Had they showed the truth and stated they were working towards a 50/50 split this would be fine.

    And here is an interesting take on divorce. Apparently in the UK no-fault divorce is recently legal, about a year ago compared to America. This gives helps provide an insight into the process- Only 22 percent were “joint”.

    1. Well, in America 80 percent of divorces are initiated by women, even though it isn’t in the article, that probably works out correctly. I would imagine it’s the same there.

    2. Low take up for joint applications- well, when you want to “take him to the cleaners” it’s not exactly a “joint process” now is it.

    The whole reason for marrying someone with money is so you get some either during or after the marriage. Take the kid, take the check, monkey branch on to the next.

    Women are saying they can’t find enough quality men. Well, it’s women that are teaching them from the time they are little boys. Is Miss Jones in second grade doing as good a job with Billy as she is with Sally?


    HM Courts & Tribunals Service received 3,000 divorce applications in the week following the introduction of the reforms – a 50% rise on the weekly average.

    According to government statistics, 22% of the 89,123 divorce applications under the new law were made by joint parties.

    Lisa Collins, a partner at Birkett Long, said joint applications have helped ensure couples are on an equal footing when starting proceedings.

    However Roe, who encourages parties to file for divorce jointly, is surprised to see low take-up for the joint approach and suggested a reduced fee for joint applications could help.

  82. Phoenix says:

    ExEx says:
    August 17, 2023 at 11:00 am
    All that stupidity and this:

    A Texas woman has been charged with threatening to kill the judge overseeing a criminal case against Donald Trump.

    I don’t believe that story. Women aren’t violent, abusive, or predatory.

    They are all like Mary Poppins. Or Snow White.

  83. ExEx says:

    Critical Thinking is the real culprit. Many people seem incapable of that task.
    Phoenix’s sarcasm not withdtanding.

  84. Phoenix says:

    Real estate should be about buying a f in house and living in it.”

    Yeah, I am serious.

    My first house was small. I loved it. Perfect for a small family. Nice neighborhood.

    But not large enough volume to hold all of the estrogen, it was seeping out of the vents in the attic, pouring down the front lawn into the storm drains.

    So I had to buy a bigger one, happy wife happy life.

    Nope, never happy. Chasing happiness like a dog after a car. Same thing with work, I see them, they now have their careers but hate every minute of it hoping someone with an MD will slap a ring on it.

    A career is a cool thing to have until you actually have to show up and work.

  85. Fast Eddie says:

    It seems there’s a bit of wake-up or resurgence going on in our country to take back traditional values that are being trounced by the left. Liberal ideology may have had some good intentions initially but it’s evolved into a full blown mental illness of progressive misfit muppets making up warped policies on the fly. Gender confusion, homeless encampments, sanctuary cities run amok, paralysis of logical thought, crime left unchecked, record federal debt and runaway theft are the earmarks of self-indulgent laziness and excuses. It’s refreshing to see artists emerge like true Americans such as Oliver Anthony coupled with the backlash against Target, AB, Disney, etc. when people have had enough. We need to return to a more traditional approach that made our nation great while we eradicate the cockroaches that are trying to destroy it.

  86. ExEx says:

    11:17 critical thinking. Not something you are personally familiar with I see.

  87. Phoenix says:


    You mean like barefoot and pregnant?

    Not for me, but how about you stop lying and claiming that men are running Mattel when it’s almost half women?

    America, just stop the lying already. Yes you were speeding, yes you had 9 drinks at the bar, yes you banged the neighbor, yes you stole from your client……

  88. Phoenix says:

    Your tax dollars at work:

    Police Officer Helped Her Lover, a Gang Leader, Flee Country, U.S. Says
    Gina Mestre, who left the Police Department last year, is charged with being part of a racketeering conspiracy while assigned to a Bronx precinct.

    On Wednesday, Ms. Mestre, who left the Police Department in May 2022, was charged with participating in a racketeering conspiracy, obstructing a grand jury investigation and being an accessory to murder after the fact.

    Named in 12 known lawsuits, $765,000 total settlements.

  89. Very Stable Genius says:

    America’s best be sitting down watching Fox News all day, EVERY SINGLE DAY.

    Building lots and lots of resentment and carrying lots and lots of grievances.

  90. Very Stable Genius says:

    Is Insurrection a traditional value or right wing ideology?

    Fast Eddie says:
    August 17, 2023 at 11:17 am
    It seems there’s a bit of wake-up or resurgence going on in our country to take back traditional values that are being trounced by the left. Liberal ideology

  91. leftwing says:

    “In “classical America” Trump would be executed.”

    Agree, and his election showed the collision course we are on to that iceberg of yesterday…

    DJT is not the underlying problem, only the symptom….the possibility of his election (or that of someone similar) was set long ago…we are on a long uncorrectable course toward disaster of which DJT is only a cameo actor….

    Trump is truly not relevant in this longer term view, he’s certainly not captain of the ship. Just some inept, hung over second officer who woke up with the clanging of the first alarm who ran to the bridge and tried to opportunistically grab the helm.

  92. 3b says:

    Left: Fair enough. We are getting back to more normalized rates from where we were previously.

  93. 3b says:

    Very Stable: One could say the same of CNN and MSNBC. They are equally as bad as Fox for creating anger and resentment.

  94. Phoenix says:

    Very Stable Genius says:
    August 17, 2023 at 11:42 am
    Is Insurrection a traditional value or right wing ideology?

    Well, ask that question if there was irrefutable proof of election fraud.

    Would that make it okay then?

  95. Phoenix says:

    3b says:
    August 17, 2023 at 11:48 am
    Very Stable: One could say the same of CNN and MSNBC. They are equally as bad as Fox for creating anger and resentment.

    And WAPO, and the Daily Mail.

    They all push an agenda. You have to sort out the chaff to get to the wheat.

  96. No One says:

    Snowy Brown and the Seven Incel Soyboys.
    A white male puts her into a coma with a poisoned Apple Iphone13 dickpic.
    In the end she is awakened by Lizzo who revives her goddess within via soul-sistahood, her magic flute and the healing power of body-positivity and dancing bananas.
    The soyboys don’t really do anything but smile, do dumb stuff, and simp for all the girls.

  97. Phoenix says:

    The soyboys don’t really do anything but smile, do dumb stuff, and simp for all the girls.

    Actually, they work and bring money home for Snowy to spend.

  98. OC1 says:

    Wait a minute Phoenix- are you saying that a movie about children’s toy dolls living in a place called “Barbieland” isn’t an accurate representation of the real world?????

    I yearn for the old America where our movies based on childrens toys were realistic.

  99. Fast Eddie says:

    Is Insurrection a traditional value or right wing ideology?

    I’ll let you know after I read the empty Mueller report created to oust a democratically elected president and after a few prayers for the two dozen dead due to the BLM-led riots which caused $2 billion in damages and after I witness the conviction of the left wing nut who tried to assassinate Brett Kavanaugh.

  100. BananaJoe says:

    The same people going on about indictments were the same people going on about Russia and all of the other hoaxes.

    How many times will they play the fool so Biden types can rob is blind? No limit apparently.

  101. BananaJoe says:

    Just me personally but I’d rather be Allie’s with the stench of “insurrection” than perverts and child s3xual predators like the left has done. If you support democrat politicians you are part of child exploitation. End of story.

  102. 1987 Condo says:

    Review the Compromise of 1877, disputed electors and back room deals. Bottom line, segregation and racism continued for 90 more years in the South as a result of the deal.

  103. ExEx says:

    12:50 that’s so stupid. You are a clearly an imbecile.

  104. BananaJoe says:

    To tell a confused child that they are trapped in the wrong body and their way out is to take medication and mutilate themself is some really sinister shlt. One party promotes it including Phil Murphy.

  105. Old realtor says:

    Banana Joe,
    So all pedophiles are Democrats? It is a wonder that you are smart enough to breathe!

  106. ExEx says:

    “Classic America” heading into a hole to mine coal.
    Making a good wage and if you survived until retirement
    You could take the bass boat around the lake, fish & drink beer.
    Then you’d probably die because your lungs would have been damaged severely
    by the time you spent underground digging in the dirt. Breathing the coal dust.
    Meanwhile modern folks sit in their air conditioned cubicles pining for the “old days” without a goddam clue what that really means.

  107. ExEx says:

    Just remember the Greeks invented love,
    but it was the Romans who introduced it to

  108. Fast Eddie says:


    10-yr @ 4.32%

  109. Fast Eddie says:

    30-yr. fixed mortgage rate is over 7%. No worries, you can buy now and flip the dump for a 15% profit in a year from now. A 3bd/1.5bth in Clifton is approaching Palo Alto prices. Celebrate with an Opus X when the sale is final!

  110. 3b says:

    Fast: If you buy a new mailbox you can probably add another percent to the 15.

  111. BRT says:

    Closing out those tsla and tsm shirts for now. That was fun.

  112. SmallGovConservative says:

    ExEx says:
    August 17, 2023 at 10:58 am
    “Fragile masculine egos…”

    I don’t know NoOne personally, but I’m virtually certain that his ego is far less fragile than the economic security of beta males like you. Guys like you, who’s financial health and quality of life are completely dependent on their wives, are the very definition of ‘fragile’.

  113. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nice, BRT!

    Currently, have DNA short. Targeting 1.50. Will see what happens. Know this stock well enough to play the swings. Hope it works out.

    With the mindset, don’t be good at a lot of stocks, only a few.

  114. SmallGovConservative says:

    Old realtor says:
    August 16, 2023 at 4:48 pm
    “The DNC is centrist to the point of exclusion. No love for Bernie Sanders…”

    Interesting point, and accurate to the extent that the DNC has shut down the most radical leftists specifically when they’ve attempted to challenge for the prez nomination. But also largely irrelevant because the party platform and priorities have shifted so far to the left. So while Jocaine Biden was clearly a moderate Dem senator (at least in the earlier portion of his career), he is now nothing more than a willing agent for the radical leftists that have taken over the Dem party. I won’t rehash the list of Joe’s policy disasters or embarrassing virtue signals, but to use a couple of examples to prove the point, a moderate would not refuse to secure the southern border and a centrist would not invite topless trannies to the WH.

  115. SmallGovConservative says:

    3b says:
    August 16, 2023 at 3:48 pm
    “…we are on the decline, and I don’t see that changing.”

    I think this is the bottom line. I think it was Ed who mentioned in post a while back that the Oblama years will eventually be recognized as the point at which the decline became irreversible. This isn’t to disagree with those that blame the Boomers; clearly they set the decline in motion by swapping standards, civic pride and self-reliance for self absorbtion and entitlement. But the unrelenting score-settling unleashed by Oblama will finish us off.

  116. ExEx says:

    I’m jazzed now. Watching Justified.
    Wearin’ my hat. I gotta Blaupunkt in my truck.
    And some truck nuts on smallGov’s rump.
    It’s all Greek to me.


  117. 3b says:

    Small: I voted for Obama the first time around, bought the whole hope and change thing. He ended up in my view as the Great divider rather than the great uniter, and no real expertise in any area, just a lot of oratory. Voted for Romney, thought he was a reasonable alternative, had both government and business experience etc but of course he did not win. I have not voted since.

  118. Phoenix says:

    Justified Primeval best line:

    Course that justice is really no justice at all. It is only satisfaction of a mandate for the appearance of order. But order and justice, they’re not the same thing. If I wanted to restore order, I could, of course, instruct Skender to cooperate. But I am not interested in order. Justice, however. Justice is meted out in accordance with the action it remedies. And in this case, justice requires more than the law is willing or able to provide.

  119. 3b says:

    Meanwhile in Pakistan mobs burn Christian churches and homes over rumors of some Christians engaging in blasphemy against Islam.

  120. Juice Box says:


  121. OC1 says:

    “Will see what happens. Know this stock well enough to play the swings.”


  122. BRT says:

    lol, Pumps is shorting? Gonna warn you pumps, there’s not much meat on the bone on DNA. Shorting stocks down 80% can get you in big trouble.

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