From NPR:
Mortgage rates just hit their highest since 2002
Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level in more than two decades, making home-ownership even less affordable for many would-be buyers.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate home loan climbed to 7.09% this week, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac. That’s the highest it’s been since April 2002 and comes after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates aggressively in a bid to fight inflation.
Mortgage rates have more than doubled in the last two years, sharply raising the cost of a typical home loan. The monthly payment on a $350,000 house today, assuming a 20% down payment, would be $1,880, compared to $1,159 in 2021, when interest rates were below 3%.
“A lot of buyers have been priced out,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders. “If you don’t have access to the bank of mom and dad to get that down payment, it’s very challenging.”
Rising interest rates not only make it harder for first-time buyers to become homeowners. They also discourage people who already own homes from trading up.
“If you’re a homeowner who’s got a 2% or 3% mortgage, you’re not in a hurry to put your home up for sale because that would require a higher mortgage rate,” Dietz said. “So resale inventory is about half of what it should be.”
first
“A lot of buyers have been priced out,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders.
Not here. It’s full steam ahead. Multiple bids over ask, sales finalized within hours of listing are standard procedure for anything within the gravitational pull of NYC. Name your price, sit back with a beverage and watch the multiple texts come in on your phone. Don’t accept the full ask, they’ll be 20 more above it. If your ask price doesn’t make you queasy, you priced it too low. The interest rate is a non-factor.
Back from 9 days in Colorado. Drove almost 1400 miles from Denver, CO springs, Great Sand Dunes, Pagosa, Durango, Ouray, Grand Junction, Vail, Winter Park). Drive from Durango to Grand Junction (aka Million Dollar Drive) was top 5 breath-taking drives. Just a gorgeous state. Miss anything besides stock dump, Maui fires and Trump indictment? Good to get away from the crap/
China going to take world economy down? My ETH hit 1540 last night. It was crashing, but bounced. Be careful out there.
Ark is buying hand over fist, so it’s scary, but I know this stock well. Will try to exit in the morning in the 1.50s, but will feel it out. I am simply playing the rates and macro. I still love DNA. I am long, but learned my lesson, just because you love it long, doesn’t mean you can’t short it.
BRT says:
August 17, 2023 at 9:33 pm
lol, Pumps is shorting? Gonna warn you pumps, there’s not much meat on the bone on DNA. Shorting stocks down 80% can get you in big trouble.
I want to sit in a chair with cigarette burns on the arm rests with a cold Rheingold.
Fast Eddie says:
August 18, 2023 at 7:54 am
Name your price, sit back with a beverage and watch the multiple texts come in on your phone.
China are us in 2007. Huge real estate bust, but way bigger than ours was. Going to make this one long bear market. I for one am drooling at the mouth to take advantage over the next few years.
As soon as they lower rates, whenever that comes, I am going straight for my equity in my rental, and using it to buy stocks or real estate…whatever is more beat up when that time comes. I am preparing for the coming cycles.
Ozempic sales in the US are pushing manufacturer’s native Denmark to keep interest rates low due to the huge influx of foreign currency.
Who would have thought…
Yup….Americans with money to burn. Estimates are 60,000 new weekly prescriptions…
In 2022, US sales of Ozempic contributed to 65% of global sales; this is expected to continue, with the US market forecast to continue capturing the majority of sales, generating $71bn between 2023–2029. It is forecast that Ozempic will sustain its sales growth over the next five years, with an expected annual sales figure of $17bn in 2029. This represents a significant 83% increase in sales between 2022–2029, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9%.
America sells arms and weapons creating hate
The Danes sell Ozempic making people look sexy again.
Out of short and waiting to short again. See how i high they take it. Had to exit at 1.63.
Bystander,
Miss anything besides stock dump, Maui fires and Trump indictment?
Yes, I’m throwing my hat in the ring and running for Prez as an independent.
Sounds like you had a great trip. Welcome back to the madness. :)
Chicago,
I want to sit in a chair with cigarette burns on the arm rests with a cold Rheingold.
Don’t drink too many beers: https://tinyurl.com/545xh9a9
re: “Miss anything”
I am staying away from the regular mainstream news cycle for a while here in the USA, as well it is all Orange Clown 24 x 7, and it is getting on my nerves, there are more important things than politics.
From a tweet today.
On July 27th, the Fed said they are no longer forecasting a recession. Since then, the S&P 500 has lost $1.8 TRILLION in market cap. Then, on August 4th, JP Morgan said they no longer expect a recession. Since then, the S&P 500 has lost $1.3 TRILLION in market cap.
Both statements marked the exact high of day for the S&P 500 when released.
Michael Burry’s bet against the S&P 500 seems outsized too, and is misreported.
Interesting news out of China, showdown in GDP growth, unemployed youth at 24%, shadow banking seems to be shaky, and lending for new housing projects has collapsed too.
Evergrande collapse bankruptcy is somehow tied to crypto crashing, can anyone explain the relationship? Seems like some kind of money laundering going on perhaps? Bitcoin to tether transactions etc. Only way to get money out of China besides hooker $50 dollar bills is crypto.
Fast Eddie: Can’t make this stuff up.
https://therheingold.com/
https://ny1.com/nyc/brooklyn/news/2019/01/23/new-developments-rise-on-former-rheingold-brewery-site-
You could have my vote Ed if your #1 item is eliminating Ticketr#per fees.
I forgot how glorious it is to be free of computer. My main concerns were staying on road and finding entertaining adventures. It was good mixing it up with flyover crowd. We met great people from Kansas on Durango Silverton train. Good to get out of Northeast bubble. I still struggle with Texas crowd. They are brash..like NYCers of flyover countrt. Lots of 300 lbers with “don’t make Texas Like CA” stickers. That said, CO is gdam expensive. 4.15 gas and $22 cheese pizzas. Even paid $5 for bag ice in Winter Park. Beautiful town but too rich for my blood. CO springs was built up like crazy. Felt like back in CT with traffic. There was nothing around garden of gods when there in late 90s. Now, every chain and strip mall surrounding it. Strike off list.
It was good mixing it up with flyover crowd. We met great people from Kansas on Durango Silverton train.
Mingling with the deplorables? Did you get approval from the council? ;)
Bystander re: “There was nothing around garden of gods when there in late 90s. Now, every chain and strip mall surrounding it. Strike off list.”
Did you vists the lofts at SodoSopa?
So not far off from South Park…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9b64WmQI3Ec
Consumers need supplies in order to consume:
Now, every chain and strip mall surrounding it.
Hope they have this in a few years, maybe by then I will qualify:
With Walmart+ Assist [walmart.com], qualifying government assistance recipients can always get a W+ membership for just $6.47/month or $49/year—that’s half off!*
My beer is Rheingold the dry beer, you should try it whenever you buy beer.
Didn’t somebody reboot that beer like 30 years ago? As a goof we used to buy a case and leave it in the shore house for guests to drink.
Fab – How goes the job search? I am also looking again now too. I have a tech interview for a 100% remote consultant job on Monday. Fortunately, some of my crusty skills are in need.
Juice: I seem to remember that too about Rheingold. I was in upstate NY on the Canadian border a few months ago, and thought I saw it in a bar there.
I just landed a gig should be interesting. Principal thinks with my tech background I can get a CTE. He’s got a ton of high end gear just sitting there. Lots of awesome toys!
Huge semi-commercial printer and a computer driven sewing machine come to mind.
It’s a temporary job with potential to become full time.
Teaching Art and PE…lmao
I can get a CTE.
Sorry to read you have CTE. Perhaps you should stop banging your head against the wall.
The council approved as long as I avoided Laura Bobblehead land. Unfortunately she represents nicest part of state. Pagosa was cool with rivers and hot springs. Silverton was dump. Sodosopa? I swear I saw that outside Denver. Honestly I was shocked at how dumpy Denver was. He stayed closer to Airport and graffiti, abandoned warehouses and homeless all around when we left Union Station area.
Watch out for the Rhinegold. I hear it’s guarded by three water nymphs, the rhinemaidens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EYW49Ru_F4
Chi,
My mom’s got about 200K in a brokerage account with my families long time broker. He’s the guy I dropped after the tech bubble burst and he killed me. I of course timed it with my own accounts. Well my dad died about 7 months ago and he managed a bit of their money still. He just snail mailed my mom a letter saying he joined Schwab and the fee is charged monthly and is 5% of assets manually. Isn’t that disgustingly high?
Actually, $800K. Sheesh.
Um…… I am not sure that actually conforms to regulations. It cannot possibly be correct.
Check him here……
https://brokercheck.finra.org/
If he is unregistered…… then check him here….
https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/281790
Libturd says:
August 18, 2023 at 3:52 pm
He just snail mailed my mom a letter saying he joined Schwab and the fee is charged monthly and is 5% of assets manually. Isn’t that disgustingly high?
If he has his own RIA or is not custodied on Schwab’s platform, then get out of dodge.
If it is indeed 5%, then you need to get out of there ASAP, because it implies that he is unregulated….. it means he has unfettered access to the cookie jar.
Ten closed at 425. Resistance becomes support.
It gets better. I look at the letter from the investment advisor. Commission is .5%. No more help for grandma unless I see the documents first hand. I took a look at the investments. All laddered corporate bonds for the most part. It looks like she is on pace to make about 9% this year. Good enough for grandma. Sorry to bother you Chi. I never used a financial advisor so what do I know about fees besides 5% sounding a little insane?
Chi,
Here’s here’s the breadwinner. Think grandma should be concerned?
https://www.securitieslawyer.com/robert-mehlin-fairfield-nj/
Sodosopa, when I drive around, every townhome complex that pops up has a view of historic Kenny’s house. Such a great episode.
“Debt becomes deflationary when you can’t issue more of it.
You are witnessing that right now with China.
And the US is next.”
They are taking it down people. Signs are there. Chasing any rally now is for the pigs. They will be slaughtered.
Just remember, I was on this blog during that FOMO run a month ago and gave warning that the BOJ was a signal. More and more signals are now coming. Prepare. When people are crying, you will be buying their tears on the cheap. Only problem, you will be so scared when it is happening that you won’t be able to pull the trigger.
When they lower the rates, I will be there taking out max equity out of my rental and buying whatever is cheaper…real estate or stocks.
This is the way…
I am going to blow up the next 20 years. Hopefully, get 3 cycles to play.
Currently short DNA at 1.70, 1.66, and 1.63. Holding through the weekend…hoping for some bad news into monday. Just mad that I missed the 1.50s this morning and had to exit my shorts in the 1.60s. Went to the bathroom and by the time i came back, it was already 1.61. Had a big position, so couldn’t exit till 1.63.
And not bad news with DNA…just macro. As long as these rates keep rising each week, I will continue shorting. Bad news as in china news. Will see. No doubt in my mind they are going to take the world economy down..
Next door neighbor closing was today. Sold for $100,000 over ask for 1,075,000.
New neighbor is going to have to spend $$$$ to update as kitchen is 20 years old, rooms all need updating and everything else including roof is old too.
Our old neighbor bought it during foreclosure back in 91 for $220,000. He poured allot into improvements including massive addition and a gunfire pool.
I might get a million hopefully someone will knock on my door soon and offer me money before it all crashes.
Gunfire = gunfire
Juice,
That sucks for them. Buying at the top. But if the house is right, 200k is meaningless. If you can afford that price, chances are you will die with lots of money.
Lol gunite pool
Bingo.
“When the tinder is dry, it doesn’t matter what starts the fire.
Japan, China, student loans, commercial real estate, or mother fucking aliens.
Conditions dictate probabilities.
Probabilities dictate outcome.
A credit event is coming.”
Michael Oliver says watch Citi. If it crashes below $40, then all hell breaks loose on Wall St. Citi might be the most important indicator for a coming recession. Forget about Apple or a FANG stock. The Wall St banks are much more important.
Like I said, I did not miss the crap during CO trip. See most of last 10 posts
Bystander: Glad you enjoyed your vacation. It’s good to take a break and get away.
Libturd,
Evacuate. Are you able/willing to manage it at low cost for her?
Lighten up, Francis. I am giving good info here and you are crying about it. You can make it too, use that energy to go get it! Take f’ing advantage of the cycle or cry about it. Your choice.
Bystander says:
August 18, 2023 at 9:12 pm
Like I said, I did not miss the crap during CO trip. See most of last 10 posts
This trend is unsustainable.
https://x.com/lanceroberts/status/1692504439519662176?s=42&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
“2yrs ago u could have got a 30yr fixed mortgage or refied at 2.50%.
Today that same mortgage is 7.58%!
Your monthly payment goes from $3,951 to $7,047!
After 30yrs, u will have paid $1.14M more in total interest!
If u are getting into home ownership now, try a cardboard box.”
Read this article and the comments to follow. I guess progressive elitists often try to one-up each other in the smarminess?
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/08/oliver-anthony-and-the-incoherence-of-right-wing-populism.html
punkin hed,
It’s different here! We’re bleeding wealth, a house tour guide told me! Buy now or be priced out forever!
Fast: Should buy two, hurry, hurry!
I bet this guy gets promoted.
https://nypost.com/2023/08/19/hawaii-official-worried-about-equity-over-water/
People from Texas have no high ground regarding resources and infrastructure.
Thanks 3B. It was great. Dufus does not even understand regulations working for bank. Sure, let me implement my short strategy. First, I have to input it into a system then wait for upper management to review for conflict. When they hopefully approve a few days later then I get to execute trade. Winning.
3:02
Enjoy the homeless rvs coming to your neighborhood
Texas has zero homeless…but a quick reality check,
I live in Ventura Co. in a $1m home in a spotless ungated neighborhood.
The cops here don’t tolerate any vagrants or homeless.
LA & SF are another story.
Oh snap 107 degree in Dallas. Better watch that fragile electrical grid.
6:56
Enjoy the brownouts
Enjoy the book burnings
CA> TX
9:54
Go cry into your kombucha
Don’t get your truck nuts confused son.
No one’s cryin here.
Listen up:
https://youtu.be/pAgsYPYvf90
10:45
For someone who claims to have a wonderful life you are an uninteresting mixture of insecure, bitter, and boorish.
I dunno, things are pretty excellent right now.
Of course I could use a state lottery win.
To those of you on Ozempic.
Take it as directed. Do not drink alcohol with it.
I will only warn you one time.
To those who like real horror flicks, one that hits close to home:
Soft and Quiet on Netflix.
This movie will send chills down your spine.
For me it just reminded me of my ex wife and her family ( minus her sister who was booted of the island cause she didn’t drink the Kool-Aid)