Do mortgage rates even matter anymore?

From the APP:

Mortgage rates double. Here is why that hasn’t killed Jersey Shore home bidding wars

With mortgage rates rising to 22-year highs, the prospects for the sale of the house at 321 14th Ave. in Belmar could have dimmed. But within a week of going on the market, its owners had shown the home to nearly 60 prospective buyers and were left to decide among 10 written offers.

By the end of the process, the listing’s agent, Eric Bosniak with Coldwell Banker Realty in Rumson, said the big surprise wasn’t that the home sold above its asking price of $899,000, but that it didn’t receive even more offers given the interest.

“I feel that, yes, mortgage rates are ticking higher, but there’s still significant buyer demand with still limited inventory,” Bosniak said. “And here’s the kicker: limited good inventory.”

The conflicting data has puzzled real estate veterans, who can’t remember a set of conditions like this. It was only two years ago that home buyers and owners took advantage of record-low mortgage rates. Now, they seem frozen in place, leaving real estate agents and mortgage brokers to wait for rates to begin to decline and for the market the thaw.

Less clear is how long the head-scratching environment will last. And they wonder: If homes are getting above asking price despite high interest rates, what will happen to prices when rates fall?

“All of a sudden, rates go down to, say, the mid-5’s, well, then are you going to be bidding against 20 other people?” asked Kenneth Gunther, senior loan officer for NJ Lenders Corp., a mortgage banker in Shrewsbury. “So that’s the unknown question that I think about at night. … What is the market going to look like down the road?”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, New Jersey Real Estate, Shore Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

44 Responses to Do mortgage rates even matter anymore?

  1. Fabius Maximus says:


  2. JUice Box says:

    I want chicken I want live Meow Mix Meow Mix please deliver!

  3. Juice Box says:

    liver dammit Mr. Bigglesworth!

  4. Juice Box says:

    Woke up still thinking about the refs and the Jets loss…I was hoping a loss for the Chiefs would lead to Taylor Swift becoming the next NFL Jinx.

  5. Juice Box says:

    14th Ave Belmar? Aren’t there still loads and loads of Summer party house rentals all the way up to 19th st or do the youth of today no longer like to DJ’s in Belmar?

  6. 3b says:

    WSJ article Americans are spending like there is no tomorrow, handbags and concert tickets.

  7. Juice Box says:

    Wow Newsom outdid himself on this one. He literally appointed a lobbyist who runs a SuperPac to fill the Senate Seat. Does not even live in California!

    I was thinking of someone else a more traditional firebrand like Maxine Waters but hey California you have nothing to worry about now.

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    All of a sudden, rates go down to, say, the mid-5’s…

    I thought of this many times, what happens if 2% is knocked off current mortgage rates? If prices are out of control now, what then? Or, do the fence-sitting sellers feel like that would be the time to list their house thereby increasing the number on the market? But then, a seller needs to buy something as well. Quite the conundrum and unknown here.

  9. Fast Eddie says:


    WSJ article Americans are spending like there is no tomorrow, handbags and concert tickets.

    It’s an epidemic. What’s the current credit card debt level? When do we hit $2 trillion? Debt is the new wealth, ask any democrat.

  10. Very Stable Genius says:

    “ the primary driver of the nation’s economic growth remains robust. Americans spent 5.8% more in August than a year earlier, well outstripping less than 4% inflation. And the experience economy boomed this summer, with Delta Air Lines reporting record revenue in the second quarter and Ticketmaster selling over 295 million event tickets in the first six months of 2023, up nearly 18% year-over-year. ”

    3b says:
    October 2, 2023 at 7:53 am
    WSJ article Americans are spending like there is no tomorrow, handbags and concert tickets.

  11. Fast Eddie says:

    Wow Newsom outdid himself on this one.

    A black, gay woman is the going rate these days. How do they top it? They tried it with that bald dude with red lipstick who was robbing clothes in an airport so they had to push him to the side. What’s next? A horse as a senator? Caligula would approve. So, Gruesome himself said he’s appointing a black woman, so he did. Do any qualifications outside of race and gender du jour land you an interview at the very least?

  12. BRT says:

    Belmar has been slowly eliminating all the houses over the past 20 years. A lot of the listings come with construction plans to turn the crap shack into a big house. I remember they went on a blitz to harass all the kids renting in town. They even passed a “use of a foul language in public” law. I was with one of the owners of Bar A in Belmar. At the time, they purchased all the squad cars for the town I believe. One time, about 15 years ago, we were eating pizza at Brothers at 2 am on Ocean Ave. Rent-a-cop comes up to us and tells us he’s writing us a ticket for dropping “f-bombs” and forces us to stop eating and stand on the sidewalk. Bar A owner calls the chief of police right there and gives the phone to the rent-a-cop. He was forced to apologize to us and walks away with his tail between his legs.

  13. Juice Box says:

    3B – only suckers pay for handbags these days. As far as ticket sales not surprising. BTW the U2 show at James Dylan’s new LED done in Vegas looks awesome. Let’s just hope Dolan does not want to be a guest artist on stage with them very often.

  14. Very Stable Genius says:

    Delta is so overwhelmed with business that going forward only the rich will have access to their airport lounges.

    Very Stable Genius says:
    October 2, 2023 at 8:23 am
    “ the primary driver of the nation’s economic growth remains robust. Americans spent 5.8% more in August than a year earlier, well outstripping less than 4% inflation. And the experience economy boomed this summer, with Delta Air Lines reporting record revenue in the second quarter and Ticketmaster selling over 295 million event tickets in the first six months of 2023, up nearly 18% year-over-year. ”

    3b says:
    October 2, 2023 at 7:53 am
    WSJ article Americans are spending like there is no tomorrow, handbags and concert tickets.

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    Delta is so overwhelmed with business that going forward only the rich white, Republican males will have access to their airport lounges.

    Fixed it.

  16. Juice Box says:

    U.S. Airport Traffic has only just returned to Pre-Pandemic Levels. The record revenues are from all of the additional fees.

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Man, the refs continue to hook kc up. That team lives off bad refs.

  18. Juice Box says:

    Allot of pressure on Gensler to approve the Spot ETFs for Bitcoin. I am glad someone is still holding the line. They used Pokemon cards as an example at the last hearing. Putting a Pokenmon car on some Blockchain as an NFT doesn’t suddenly turn it into a security is the argument.

    Then why do we need a security to invest in Pokemon NFTs. All ETFs have been tradeable financial assets, such as stocks, bonds, currencies, futures contracts or commodities.

    None of this NFT garbage should every make it into the real financial world. The main reason being, it’s not real it’s not backed by anything. So they say the real Pokemon card will be moved to a vault and insured by Brinks, and the NFT will be traded. This is insanity, if you want to trade cards fine. We don’t need the leverage that comes with wall street to distort it’s value.

    Gensler should get a medal after this one…

  19. Juice Box says:

    Gensler from the 15th Anniversary Lehman Collapse Conference. A seven-minute watch is pretty good. He makes a compelling argument of why none of these coins, NFTs and should ever get to be traded on Wall St.

  20. No One says:

    I’m confident that Kamala Harris would be willing to try carpet munching in return for a better political job. Would be a piece of cake for her versus her past political triumphs like swallowing mayor Willie Brown. She’s like, hey guys, I can be bi, who you want me to do?

  21. Boomer Remover says:

    The worst part about being financially conservative is that ones fortunes and opportunities to a certain extent are invariably intertwined with the howmuchamonth morons OD’ing on their credit with every cycle.

    From car dealers to used home salesmen, the howmuchamonths set the tone for how the public at large is perceived/approached/fleeced. If everyone is spending like no tomorrow, prices get jacked across the board.

    Not optimal.

  22. Juice Box says:

    I really don’t care about their private lives. I think it’s incredible that the citizens of California aren’t going crazy because Maryland just got their third Senator.

    Menendez could soon resign. How is anyone here in NJ going to feel if Phil Murphy appoints Lawrence Yun from the NAR to fill his seat?

  23. Boomer Remover says:

    Just messaged a mortgage broker and thought you’d be interested in hearing about demand side prop up programs elsewhere.

    The Polish government rolled out a new program for prospective first time RE buyers called “safe credit” in which the government will subsidize the first 120 monthly mortgage payments such that your interest rate is fixed at 2%. They will pay the spread between 2% and market rate.

    There’s a laundry list of exclusions; first time (EU) buyers, under 45yo, ~$250K max price, no more than $50K DP. Minimum payback period 15 years, so five years of market rate payments. But what really caught my attention was the section about who is eligible:

    1. Single people
    2. Married couples (if you want to combine both for credit worthiness)
    3. Unmarried couples, but only with a child.

    In the end the currency of the mortgage has to match the currency of the income claimed to support its payback. The only time there’s an exclusion is if you are in the EU and have an employment agreement with an employer in EUR or USD, but that income has to be reported as income earned in EU.

    I’d have to run the numbers on the 15 year minimum payback period, but I bet it’s easier to pay off in five years at market interest than stretch it out. At any rate there’s no lux flats under $250K where I am looking so it looks like I will not be able to take advantage of this giveaway. That 15 year payback blous but is probably there so the government caps/understands its monthly obligations.

    I can imagine defaults when the government turns over or otherwise stops paying years down the line and the monthly mortgage doubles.

  24. Phoenix says:

    “It is balloon”


  25. Very Stable Genius says:

    1980: Chrysler Corporation bailout
    By 1979, the American automotive company Chrysler was nearly bankrupt. the federal issued a $1.5 billion bailout. The government would bail Chrysler out again in 2008—during the Great Recession—before Fiat eventually acquired the company in 2014.

  26. BRT says:

    Juice, you should follow the card market. It’s kinda insane. It’s not illegal to manipulate the card markets. They do this with old Magic the Gathering cards a lot. Take a $20 card, buy up the entire supply. Then sell them for $400 a pop slowly. There are cards I had back in the day that were worth $5 max selling for $500 at some points.

  27. Juice Box says:

    BRT – Yes Very Crazy.

    The eBay Vault will store cards for you $250 value and up cards…

  28. BRT says:

    I have a whole collection of cards in the basement. I monitor them every 10 weeks or so because it’s not uncommon for me to go in the basement and find a quick $1000 dollars when they manipulate the market. To this day, I’ve probably made over $20k from the cards. Had I not sold the expensive ones 13 years ago, I would have paid off my house with them.

  29. Very Stable Genius says:

    1989: Savings and loan crisis
    The savings and loan crisis resulted from almost a third of the savings and loan associations in the U.S. failing over several years, thanks in part to their participation in several risky real estate ventures.

    The ultimate cost to taxpayers ended up being an estimated $124 billion.

  30. No One says:

    Speaking of airports, my new home airport Sarasota International served over 3.8m passengers in 2022, compared to 1.2 million in 2017.
    A lot of it is with Southwest and Spirit, but United does a twice daily direct to EWR, with more frequencies added during the busy season.
    Tampa handled 22m passengers in 2022.
    Newark did 43m. Orlando 44m. Miami 51m.
    There is some talk that in late 2023 there are some demand headwinds for air travel. Pent up demand from COVID for travel has been satisfied by now. The return of student loan payments have started to absorb some disposable income again. Will adjustable rate mortgages do the same?

  31. BRT says:

    I said it last year but this student loan pause was the ideal time to pay down principle. It was a gift that I’m sure most people completely ignored.

  32. Fast Eddie says:


    10 yr. –> 4.70

  33. Boyaa Fast Eddie says:

    Buy now or be priced out forever. Suzanne researched it.

    Ba Ba Boyaa.

  34. Juice Box says:

    Latest job ad. Lol just lol..

    THE SCHEDULE: —> This position is 100% in our cutting-edge offices.

    Also wants Ph.D. in Computer Science.

    Is there even an AI Ph.D. program?

  35. Juice Box says:

    Incoming! Bloomberg says the word crash for commercial real estate.

    “ Office prices in the US are due for a crash, and the commercial real estate market faces at least another nine months of declines, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
    About two-thirds of the 919 respondents surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the US office market will only rebound after a severe collapse. An even greater majority says that US commercial real estate prices won’t hit bottom until the second half of 2024 or later

  36. Mike S says:

    I gotta say after going to heathrow over the weekend – i’ll take newark any day. It is so backwards in the way you need to navigate through… Although still had a 1 hour wait through immigration yesterday in newark… definitely needs a business/first class priority line…

    The most organized airline / airport –> Vistara out of Bangalore…

  37. Boomer Remover says:

    Suggestion to take PLAY to the UK out of Stewart International. Tiny airport, two flights per day, $3 parking, front row, empty terminal. Bring your own downloaded entertainment.

    Immigration in Stewart is basically you walking off the plane on to the tarmac and walking into a room with a customs agent. Then past about a dozen or so people past customs and to the exit door, your car is parked in the first row outside.

  38. grim says:

    I’ve never heard of Play, but a $250 direct round trip flight from Stewart to Iceland for a weekend getaway sounds pretty good to me.

  39. Libturd says:

    Love flying out of Stewart. About an hour drive, but the time saved from exiting plane to walking to your car makes it closer than Newark (20 minute drive). And of course, cheap parking right at the archaic terminal. I have been able to get out of there from touchdown to car in seven minutes (without bags) on Jet Blue.

  40. Phoenix says:


    Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk mocked Ukraine’s war-time leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday, using a meme to scoff at the president’s calls for Western aid.

    “When it’s been 5 min and you haven’t asked for a billion dollars in aid,” read Musk’s message, which accompanied Zelenskyy’s head attached to a famous photo of an agitated schoolboy, who — according to the meme’s etymology — was in a classroom and desperately trying to hold in flatulence.

  41. ExEx says:

    Musk fancies himself a conservative

    After taking billions in gubmint subsidies.

    It’s on brand. You gotta little man crush?

  42. Phoenix says:

    Not too original, I posted that the day before.
    Great song tho.

Comments are closed.