Home offices spur office homes

Fun collection of stories this morning:

Why turning offices into homes is a terrible idea

City of Ottawa looking at ways to make office-to-residential conversions easier

Conversion of vacant London offices could deliver 28,000 homes to the UK capital

These Ten U.S. Cities Are Converting the Most Offices to Residential

Commercial-to-residential Conversion: Addressing Office Vacancies

A New White House Plan to Create Affordable Housing: Convert Empty Office Buildings

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Development. Bookmark the permalink.

112 Responses to Home offices spur office homes

  1. Very Stable Genius says:


  2. Very Stable Genius says:

    AI will disrupt healthcare

  3. grim says:

    AI – Promising faster than ever preauthorization denials.

  4. Very Stable Genius says:

    Don’t need to pay Microsoft to read my emails.
    Need AI to lower overhead costs and expedite service. It will be proactive

  5. Phoenix says:

    Don’t worry. Amazon clinic is fast and inexpensive. Cost is less than 1hr salary at a McDonalds.

    Very Stable Genius says:
    October 27, 2023 at 6:20 am
    AI will disrupt healthcare

  6. Phoenix says:

    Pegasus is already doing that for you.

    Very Stable Genius says:
    October 27, 2023 at 6:38 am
    Don’t need to pay Microsoft to read my emails.

  7. Phoenix says:

    Adam 12, Kojak, Barney fife. All did their jobs perfectly without having to track you with a cell phone. Gumshoes. Could read a map….

    Border alert goes up in Canada for fugitive Maine killer Robert Card – as it’s revealed he left behind a cell phone to throw cops ‘off his scent’

  8. true sue says:

    He was trained by the best .our government …..

  9. Libturd says:

    LAX – Great name btw, that Heart video was really fantastic. I think that version of Magic Man was better than the original.

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lovely Friday at the best job in the world. Had to walk through metal detectors today to get into school….tell me again how f/ing good I have it.

  11. Juice Box says:

    Pumps take over the Union already. It can’t be that hard.

  12. Fast Eddie says:

    Clifton, baby! Accessible to everywhere! What’s the hammer price on this one?


  13. leftwing says:

    “Any of you teachers want to relocate to Missouri? Looks like there is now an opening…”

    Damn, she’s a cutie. Hottest mugshot I’ve seen….


  14. Juice Box says:

    Generative AI is nice and all for work and spreadsheets etc. It’s the interactive AI stuff everyone should be paying attention too.

    IBM has a new board and chip that encodes a neural network directly onto the physical chip and does the processing in memory with low power consumption. For now it has military implications, they built it for the Air Force think of Miles Dyson at Cyberdyne Systems.

  15. NJCoast says:

    Doesn’t get any better than Heart’s tribute to Led Zeppelin at the Kennedy Honors.

  16. Juice Box says:

    Teacher needs to see me after school…..


  17. Fast Eddie says:

    Rikki should have lost that number.

  18. grim says:

    Clifton, baby! Accessible to everywhere! What’s the hammer price on this one?


  19. Juice Box says:

    SBF testified yesterday, apparently without the jury present.

    Here is his testimony on twitter.

    I like this one..

    AUSA: Did you believe you should not embezzle customer assets?
    Cohen: Objection!
    Judge: Sustained.
    SBF: No I did not believe I should do that.
    Cohen: You don’t have to answer after sustained. Haven’t you been here for four weeks?
    SBF: I felt I had to answer it


  20. Juice Box says:

    I am no legal expert but the Judge made SBF testify in his in his defense without the jury hearing it. That sounds like grounds for an appeal at a minimum, judge also admonished him for being evasive.

  21. leftwing says:

    “Education is f’ed. Keep disrespecting the profession and education…sad turning to janitors to educate.”

    You’re an arrogant, self important prick absolutely clueless about your own place in the universe.

    Sight unseen, based solely on your postings here, I would take the janitor over you teaching my kid.

    Hell, I’d take the batshit crazy homeless ranting lady I passed picking up my coffee over you.

  22. Juice Box says:

    re: preauthorization denials.

    We don’t need AI to fuck up medicine. It’s already whacked.

    Meds my kid is on for ADHD. Insurance made us switch from a liquid to a generic pill, against our doctor’s advice as the pill was making him nauseous and he would get sick after the bus ride to school. No stock at CVS for about six weeks now for the generic, and no date when it will be filled either.

    I have a two-month supply of the liquid. I will keep giving it to him before school, and I will end up paying out of pocket for it afterward. It is about $180 a month, more than worth it for the results and the fact I don’t have to rush to school to pick up a kid soaked in breakfast cereal.

  23. leftwing says:

    “Left I prefer my Church and State to be seperated, just like the law (derived from the constitution and the words of Thomas Jefferson) says it should be.”

    Possibly the most simplistically overstated distillation of the Establishments Clause I’ve seen especially as applied to the situation at hand, which was a small group of elected officials voluntarily participating in prayer together.

    But what else to be expected from the Left other than dumbed-down screeds for their sycophants’ spurious arguments?

  24. Juice Box says:

    Gotta love these crypto zealots defending SBF on Twitter.

    One of SBF’s investments with the stolen customer funds was in the AI Startup Anthropic. They want the defense to present that to the Jury.

    “invested 20% into Anthropic. Anth is now worth $30 Billion and SBF’s investment is worth $6B. If these are infact true, why does SBF not just pay all of the FTX customers that lost money and ‘make them whole’? Would SBF still have to suffer criminally if he refunds the $?/end.”

  25. BRT says:

    Juice, I was on Ritalin in high school and college for ADD. Methylphenidate is a chiral compound, meaning, there are two forms of it, a 50/50 mixture of mirror images of the chemicals structure. Only one of these is active and the other is basically considered an impurity from a medicine standpoint. Focalin is a purified version of it where the other compound has been removed. In many medicines, they find that it is the inactive form of the compound that causes many of the side effects such as nausea. That was the case for the Methylphenidate with me. So upon switch, I didn’t get that stomach discomfort that came with the original form.

    I would complain to the insurance that he is having negative reactions to the medication. In addition, perhaps you might want to see if the doctor can prescribe a “time release” version, which won’t be in liquid form. Usually, the advice is to take the pill with food to slow the absorption. The slow release of it combined with purity can a lot of times eliminate the side effects.

  26. Chicago says:

    NJMVC Hazlet
    9:15AM appointment to register a car.
    In 9:12AM
    Out 9:19AM
    I think the only time in 30 years faster was to surrender plates.

  27. BRT says:

    Chi, back in the day, I used to go to the Eatontown DMV. There was a miserable woman there who would force a single file line to get the forms. She would take forever on purpose and scream at everyone. So she would open the doors and force you into a single file line to pick up your form and yell at anyone that didn’t know her system. I’m sure the workers loved it because it meant no one actually getting serviced for the first half hour. Well, I knew her system. So on the way home from Rutgers, I picked up the form at 3 pm the day before and went home. But I showed up at opening with the form already filled out. She screamed at me to get in line for the forms and I just ignored her. She sent a cop over to me to try to drag me back in line and I told the cop, I already have the form and its filled out. Ruined her day.

  28. Juice Box says:

    Chi – We don’t need the unwashed masses coming down here to use our DMV. Please stop posting how great it is to live south of the Driscoll Bridge and to have the Governor as our neighbor. I am still trying to get a few roads repaved before his term is up when Fulop will start giving all the perks to Hudson County.

  29. Juice Box says:

    BRT – New stuff is Vyvanse generic that was just approved by the FDA. As I said not in stock I’ll look into it. Thanks!

  30. Juice Box says:

    I just put my spiders and their large webs out for the Trick or Treaters. This year I went with a hanging webbed corpse and a spider devouring it too. I ordered some purple and orange bulbs and switched out the high hat lights too. Very eerie looking at night. Too bad daylight savings isn’t earlier. I have four animatronic spiders. Two large ones on the porch vibrate and make noises when a person is near and starts talking. I also have two drop spiders that fall from the ceiling activated by sound too. Any kid that dares come on my porch is in for a trick for sure.

  31. Libturd says:

    On the boomer 3% mortgages screwing millenials. Here’s some perspective. When Gator and I bought back in 2004 (our first place and multi-family in Montclair), we both looked back at when our folks bought the homes we were raised in. After a brief stint in Staten Island, Gator grew up in Marlboro in your traditional five bedroom home on half an acre of land. In 1981, her parents paid $100,000 for it, though the interest rate was 19%. My folks, paid $79,000 for their 4 bedroom traditional home in East Brunswick in 1975 with a 9% rate.

    When Gator and I bought the multi in 2004, we paid $480,000 and had a 6.75 mortgage rate. When Gator and I bought the Tudor in Glen Ridge in 2011, we paid $430,000 and had a 4.5% mortgage rate (though this place was a bit of an outlier as we nailed both the bottom of the housing market and the lowest interest rate for nearly two years before ZIRP really knocked the mortgage interest rate down to unheard of levels. If you were to buy the our old multi today, it’s worth 980K and the interest rate is 8%. Our Glen Ridge home is worth a hair under a million.

    So I decided to chart these to see how they compare to interest rates, the inflation rate, etc.. What I discovered is that I wouldn’t buy a house today if you paid me for it. It’s so completely out of whack.


  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yawn….did someone say something? I didn’t think so.

    leftwing says:
    October 27, 2023 at 9:27 am
    “Education is f’ed. Keep disrespecting the profession and education…sad turning to janitors to educate.”

    You’re an arrogant, self important prick absolutely clueless about your own place in the universe.

    Sight unseen, based solely on your postings here, I would take the janitor over you teaching my kid.

    Hell, I’d take the batshit crazy homeless ranting lady I passed picking up my coffee over you.

  33. Libturd says:


    I have a single small pumpkin on my porch. Got some quality candy this year. Everyone trick or treats on two roads around here and I’m not on one of them. If get 15 kids, it’s a good year. Meanwhile, down on Forest Avenue, they all run out of candy by about the 5,000th kid. It’s gonna be deceivingly cold this year too, after the Native American Summer we’re currently experiencing. Calling for a high of 50 and lows in the 30s.

  34. Fast Eddie says:

    What I discovered is that I wouldn’t buy a house today if you paid me for it. It’s so completely out of whack.

    If prices are your problem, NJ is not your state.

  35. Juice Box says:

    Lib – They come from all over town, our development is pretty enclosed with only two entrances and no real traffic. I expect 150-200 kids every year. Parents also bring booze, and several homes even give out beer.

  36. Phoenix says:

    Just slip out the back Jack, make a new plan Stan…

    “Clueless Maine cops scold the press as they admit they have no idea where gunman Robert Card is”

  37. Trick says:

    Going through my fathers paperwork last week we found the original deed to the house in mahwah, purchased new in 69 for $47k 4br on less than 1/4 acre.

  38. LAX says:

    10:41 cool chart!

  39. Boomer Remover says:

    Someone here was looking for a new TV for bright environments? Looks like Panasonic created an OLED mirror array mashup that works in brighter rooms: h**ps://www.avforums.com/reviews/panasonic-mz2000-tx-55mz2000b-4k-mla-oled-tv-review.21072/

  40. Libturd says:

    Interesting. At least. The only thing I could really get from it if history is an indicator of the future is, housing prices are either going to collapse, or mortgage rates are going to rise significantly more to the point where housing prices will collapse. At 8%, we are still below historical norms. At 16% people stop buying.

    Juice, Forest Ave has a house with hot dogs and live music. Another house has cocktails. Others have beer. It’s no wonder it’s so popular. Homeowners spend thousands on candy and about half if not more of the kids are from out of town. I don’t blame them and they are overwhelmingly accepted.

  41. Libturd says:

    I actually like to watch films in the dark. It just draws you in more. It also keeps Gator from catching me sleeping through rom coms. We celebrated our 20th year married yesterday. Though we dated for seven years prior to tying the knot. Got her some Irish handmade emerald (real) and diamond earrings with a matching pendant. Really pretty and unique stuff.

    Emeralds are apparently getting more valuable as they are a fragile stone and are getting harder and harder to find naturally. They mostly create them in labs now, but the fake ones look like glass to me. I sprung for the heirloom quality stones since they weren’t too big.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Happy Anniversary! Congrats on the milestone. Not easy to get there.

  43. leftwing says:

    “Yawn….did someone say something? I didn’t think so.”

    LOL, I’ll see your regular manic late Friday night postings tomorrow morning and as usual scroll right through them.

    What’s your breadwinner doing while you’re here all alone each Friday night?

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ugh….really contemplating selling because this is what I see also. I’ll have to wait a whole other cycle if I don’t sell here. I just hate losing the income. Risk in every decision we make…so tough.

    Libturd says:
    October 27, 2023 at 11:57 am
    Interesting. At least. The only thing I could really get from it if history is an indicator of the future is, housing prices are either going to collapse, or mortgage rates are going to rise significantly more to the point where housing prices will collapse. At 8%, we are still below historical norms. At 16% people stop buying.

  45. Bystander says:

    Lib 11:57,

    This is my fear of what Fed has become. They now have to create a crisis as cover to respond big to the crisis. Think of personalities like Bernanke. Guy was historian on depression and numerous ideas on how it should have been handled differently. I imagine Powell is no different. Academic wonks who think they are gods. A crisis is their sandbox. I am not sure stability is their primary driver anymore.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And you guys think I’m a bad guy…but I also worry for my tenants if I sell. No way does the new owner keep their rents where they are. They will be f/ed. Thrown to the streets. Selling an income property is no easy decision.

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Stock market investing is going to be based on picking individual winners rest of decade. I don’t think index investing will do so well over this period, but no one knows for sure. Fed policy can change drastically like it did past 2 years and f/k it all up.

  48. Bystander says:

    Something in Blumpy’s life has changed. He won’t tell us but once is awhile the balls come out. Maybe at next family picnic Grim can tell what happened on the chimp branch of his family tree. Very angry at wife. My guess, wife let go from crumbling VNO and he is bread winner now. It is moldy bread as teacher

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No, angry that you guys act like I am some leach chump. I hold my own. Give a little respect.

  50. LAX says:

    My breadwinner is adorable.

  51. Very Stable Genius says:

    I pay 50% tax rate to subsidize southern GOP states and the cost of 90 yr olds heart transplants

  52. Bystander says:


    News flash, you are not special. Get over yourself. You are simply riding the same train that Fed created for all. You have no prognostications. Be happy you owned for so long. Choose who lock with.. that is why no one respects you. Landlording would be area of expertise. Stay in your f-in lane. Everything else is opinion that others can skewer. No one here taking as expertise. Stop searching for it..jesus. This is about nicest post you will get bc I can’t stand the maniac style drivel, followed by untruthful, know it all arrogance you try to exhibit.

  53. Libturd says:

    I’m surprised his students haven’t killed him yet.

  54. Bystander says:


    Seriously do you believe it? He posts all day, hours in a row. You can’t be teaching a class. I think he works in some admin function or perhaps supplemental teaching arrangement. It is not possible. The class would see him on phone all morning. That would be a trip through. Talking to Blumpy’s former students?
    “Mr So&So? We called him the Twitcher”

  55. Libturd says:

    I don’t believe a word that comes out of his mouth. I’ll leave it at that.

  56. Fast Eddie says:


    Another nice picture, I must say.

  57. Fast Eddie says:

    I pay 50% tax rate to subsidize southern GOP states…

    Your contribution is noted and your lapel pin is in the mail.

    In the meantime, keep working.

  58. Fast Eddie says:

    I actually like to watch films in the dark.

    8mm reels? ;)

  59. BRT says:

    I pay 50% tax rate to subsidize southern GOP states and the cost of 90 yr olds heart transplants

    So what’s your opinion on Abbott districts and how your property taxes fund them?

  60. LAX says:

    1:32 thanks man!

  61. Fast Eddie says:

    We called him the Twitcher”

    Wasn’t he a member of the Westies doing work for Tony Pro? The Twitcher was known for getting “clients” to pay up on time plus the Vig. ;)

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bystander and Lib,

    Whatever you tell yourself to make you feel better. You guys hate me for being right. Hurts, huh? And you still never said good call….you guys have too much pride to throw someone some respect that proved you wrong. You guys were wrong on WFH and you guys were wrong on real estate last decade. You chitted on me over and over with my calls, and then I get it right, and you double down on being jerkoffs. Like lefty….it was always going to happen. What a f/ing jerkoff response to an amazing call.

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    In 5 years, you will see that I was right about DNA too. In the meantime, you will beat me up on it, when it is a long-term growth story.

    It’s funny….I was screaming FAANG before it was cool last decade. You guys laughed at me. Lib mocked amazon for no profit. Now he loves them. Shocker.

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And that’s the bottom line with every single person on this blog….all have big egos. All think they are the smartest person in the room. FACTS. So don’t be a hypocrite and call me arrogant.

  65. LAX says:

    “A mans gotta know his limitations” -Clint Eastwood

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Never Mind the 1%. Mini-Millionaires Are Where Wealth Is Growing Fastest.
    Many people in the upper middle class are now millionaires thanks to college, savings, bull markets and timing


  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Last week the Federal Reserve revealed that last year the average net worth of American families topped $1 million for the first time, surging 42% from $749,000 in 2019.

    Of course, that average is skewed by a small number of billionaires and multimillionaires. Inflation meant real wealth didn’t increase as much. And pandemic-era stimulus boosted asset values, perhaps beyond their fundamental values.

    Yet it would be a mistake to therefore conclude that wealth gains are purely a phenomenon of the top 1% and flattered by inflation and asset bubbles.

    First, even after inflation, real average wealth was up 23%, according to the Fed’s Survey of Consumer Finances, conducted every three years. Second, while the level of median wealth was much lower than the average, it actually rose more than the average between 2019 and 2022—by 37%, adjusted for inflation—to $193,000. That means wealth inequality actually narrowed.

    Third, and perhaps most noteworthy, there really are a lot of true millionaires. About 16 million American families—just over 12%—have wealth exceeding $1 million, up from 9.8 million families in 2019. Nearly eight million families are multimillionaires, i.e., their wealth exceeds $2 million, up from 4.7 million.

    A portrait of mini-millionaires
    Who are these mini-millionaires? They generally earn between $150,000 and $250,000 a year. They wouldn’t typically be considered rich, but upper middle class. (This depends to some extent on where they live: The same house is worth more in some parts of the country.)

    Rather than being left behind as all the gains in the economy accrue to billionaires, they have in fact seen bigger wealth gains over the past three years than the top 10% of families. Indeed, the biggest wealth gains between 2019 and 2022 were among the approximately 13 million families in the 80th to 90th percentile of the income distribution. Their median wealth jumped 69% from 2019, adjusted for inflation, to $747,000 in 2022.

    To be sure, for many American families the surge in prices since the onset of the pandemic means that wealth doesn’t feel as good as it sounds. Nonetheless, as these figures show, the increase in net worth for these families has far outpaced inflation.

    Over 90% of these families report owning stocks, either directly or through retirement accounts, and 87% own their home. They benefited extraordinarily from low interest rates, cutting debt payments as a share of their incomes to 19% in 2007 to 12.9% in 2022.

    The Survey of Consumer Finances is the most detailed data set collected on household wealth. For the survey, 4,602 households completed detailed questionnaires, enumerating all assets, including real estate, stocks, bonds, bank accounts, retirement accounts, cryptocurrencies and so on, and all liabilities, such as mortgages, auto loans, credit-card debt and student loans. Net worth is defined as all assets minus all liabilities.

    These insights have important implications, both for our national narrative and where the economy is headed.

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:

    College, savings and timing
    Rather than being swallowed by the 1%, the economy, according to these numbers, is creating a growing upper middle class. Many people got there by pursuing college degrees, steadily building retirement accounts and purchasing homes. For the most part, they became wealthy slowly, and were well-positioned when pandemic-era stimulus programs boosted asset values.

    Economists have often attributed the strength of consumer spending, which propelled economic growth to a sizable 4.9% annualized rate in the third quarter, to “excess household savings” amassed since 2019.

    That might be the wrong way of thinking about it. Nancy Vanden Houten, U.S. lead economist for Oxford Economics, recently asked: Do households “have more excess savings, or is it just wealth now?” The implication of her question is that as people come to regard the excess cash in their checking accounts as wealth, they might be less likely to spend it. The rise of millionaires, in other words, might not be transitory.

    Though stock indexes and measures of home prices, such as the median home price from the National Association of Realtors, are down from earlier this year as interest rates have climbed, their valuations are mostly higher than they were when the survey was conducted, from May to December of last year. Higher interest rates might eventually knock some people off their millionaire status, but likely haven’t yet.

    ‘Temporarily embarrassed’ millionaires
    John Steinbeck once said the U.S. “didn’t have any self-admitted proletarians. Everyone was a temporarily embarrassed capitalist.” Steinbeck meant their dreams of prosperity were delusional. And yet there’s a grain of truth to it. It is true that there are gaping disparities of wealth in the U.S. today. Nonetheless, many people whose wealth would define them as poor expect one day to be rich—and many, in fact, will be. For example, only 1% of families under 35 are millionaires, but that rises with age. By ages 55-64, 21% of families are millionaires.

    This trend is particularly pronounced among college graduates, of whom 45% were millionaires between ages 55-64. That includes 26% of families who become multimillionaires and 11% with a net worth over $5 million. The average college graduate’s net worth is over $2 million now, though as usual this is skewed by those at the very top.

    Make no mistake, there is still poverty and economic struggle in the U.S. Many families have little or no wealth, and limited prospect of accumulating any. And yet the idea that only the 1% are getting richer is at odds with the numbers.

  69. SmallGovConservative says:

    Does anyone have recent experience replacing a furnace — just had my preventative maintenance done and they ‘red tagged’ my upstairs furnace, having identified a trace of carbon monoxide and determined the heat exchanger must be cracked? Questions if anyone has recent experience…
    – Opinions on Daikin (I’ve been quoted $7200 to install a Daikin vs $8200 for a new Trane; existing furnace is a 10-year old Trane)
    – The part is under warranty, but the warranty is virtually useless at this point, as they’re estimating 3-4 weeks to replace the part vs 1 week to replace the furnace, and best case would be a $300 refund on the part ($2500-4000 total cost to replace heat exchanger). With that, and mostly out of curiosity at this point, has anyone ever successfully pursued a furnace/parts warranty with Trane and had success?

  70. Hold my beer says:


    Would you mind paying 55%? I’m fixen to get me a pool with someone else’s money. Thanks in advance

  71. Hold my beer says:


    I was in a store called pop shelf today. It’s a new chain DG is rolling out in middle class areas to draw in people who wouldn’t set foot in a store. Definitely nicer than a dollar store. Has seasonal, plus typical kitchen and household stuff and a snack and drink section.

  72. No One says:

    Libturd, congrats on many years with Gator. My wife and I must have started dating the same time as you two. Sometime in 1995, married a year later, and we just celebrated our 27th anniversary.

  73. LAX says:

    12:10 Mazel Tov. As my grandmother said, “for every pot, there’s a lid.” Or words to that affect.

  74. Libturd says:

    Way to go No One. (That sounds strange).

    8mm reels? Gary, you are really dating yourself. But yes, those too. Dad used to stash them in the basement. Oh the inconvenience of watching porn in the 60s and 70s. No wonder the VCR took off. And such lack of creativity in material.

  75. Libturd says:

    SGC, you gotta wait for Hughes Rep. Trane is good shit. Surprised to hear of replacement so soon.

  76. 3b says:

    Lib: Congratulations on your wedding anniversary. All the best!

  77. RentL0rd says:

    Mortgage rates may be at 8% but still a great time to buy according to this agent’s email I received. Email also said this:

    Loan Amortization: Every mortgage payment you make isn’t just paying off the interest; it’s also reducing the principal amount you owe. This process, known as loan amortization, is like a forced savings plan. Over time, you build more equity in your home.


  78. RentL0rd says:

    Congrats to No One.

  79. RentL0rd says:

    Recently had an issue with the 20 year ild Trane Heater. Not the same issue as yours. Appears that there is a “pressure switch” that controls the low and high settings that was faulty. The repair guy -part of a big chain, could not fix it. They ordered the Trane part – which is apparently difficult to get with a month long backlog. They had no alternatives.

    Called a smaller service shop and the guy put two generic brand switches in place and called it a day. Total $650. I looked up and the parts cost less than $100, but whatever.

  80. LAX says:

    California continues to be the nation’s most populous state, with more than 39 million residents according to the latest U.S. Census data, which is about 11.7% of the U.S. population. Researchers show that while the state’s average rate of population growth from 1959 to 2022 was 1.52%, since 2000 it has been consistently below average with negative growth in 2021 and 2022.

    As the COVID pandemic eased, California’s natural population growth – the number of births vs. the number of deaths – increased from 87,400 to 106,900 from 2021 to 2022, while foreign immigration rose from 31,300 to 90,300.

    However, the exodus from the state worsened, with a net of 407,000 residents leaving for other states between July 2021 and July 2022, according to the study.

    California’s cost of living is often cited as a reason for residents and businesses to move out, which the study said could have serious repercussions for the state’s job market and fiscal outlook. California’s environmental policies and mandates could also fuel the exodus to other states that have more lenient policies, the study said.

  81. Chicago says:

    After I left the DMV, I am driving past a cemetery and there is a mail delivery truck cutting through it. I’m thinking WTF?

  82. Fast Eddie says:

    I am driving past a cemetery and there is a mail delivery truck cutting through it.

    The driver is picking up democrat voters, November 7th is approaching.

  83. SmallGovConservative says:

    RentL0rd says:
    October 27, 2023 at 5:17 pm
    “Called a smaller service shop and the guy put two generic brand switches in place…”

    Would appreciate the name if you recall, and if they cover central NJ.

  84. Bystander says:


    One of your best. I picture Ghouliani holding a shovel and lantern though. He really has exact look.

  85. Fintechfirst says:

    SmallGovConservative – if you are looking for a whole unit replacement call blue air one in linden. I have used them twice and also recommended them to a friend. We were both very happy with the price and quality of the work. I had them do a water heater, furnace and AC change along with the friend. Clean and quality work.

  86. Hughesrep says:


    A bad heat exchanger on a ten year old furnace is unusual. Typically it happens immediately due to a manufacturing defect or 20+ years out after everything else breaks multiple times.

    Don’t bother replacing a heat exchanger. It IS the furnace. Everything else just controls what goes into it or out of it. Likely wont ever be right again, and its a tough job to do right.

    Daikin makes good stuff. They are now the parent company of York, Amanda, and Goodman, probably others. Goodman is actually their low end, but contractors will swear by their reliability. It’s a lot of contractors second brand.

    I’ve always been fond of Rheem / Ruud, but it’s what I was most familiar with. I have a relabeled Rheem in my house.

    Really there isn’t much difference in any of the furnace companies any more. Pretty mature tech and they all buy Chinese components.

    Trane / Bryant / Carrier is always more expensive. Someone has to pay for marketing budget for them and the dealer network.

    If it was me, I’d buy the least expensive condensing furnace (92%+ efficiency). It’s likely to be the simplest, therefore least likely to break. The increases in efficiency to get into 95+ require more and more parts to eke out smaller gains. I’m not a fan of the complexities and costs involved for little benefit. KISS.

    How’s the AC? Maybe just go heat pump? I’ll ever put another gas furnace into any home I own.

  87. RentL0rd says:

    Smallgov, yes it’s Central Jersey – Conway Heating & Cooling. I hope it works out.

  88. RentL0rd says:

    Fast, No, just picking UPS all the skeletons as evidence for the Orange trial

  89. leftwing says:

    Lib, congrats to you and Gator. Well done!

    Chi, yeah, nice win over the Bulldogs. Let’s see it again tonight….

    HMB, TY on the DG stuff. I’m out of most except for a handful of shares and some options I wrote to reduce cost that are good down to around 80 so I’ll likely let those just ride a little more on the assumption I won’t see a 33% haircut to the stock soon…On your small caps I haven’t looked at any yet and probably won’t have the time to anytime soon but pay attention to balance sheets…when you get to that level of revenue/earnings companies usually don’t have the ability to issue bonds so most of their debt is floating and exposed to rates and covenants (not to mention often done with regional banks who may be facing their own issues and tightening credit where and when they can)…don’t need to get jammed up there.

  90. Fast Eddie says:

    The Orange trial – attempt 164 to bring down Trump Agenda:

    “Maybe we can try to bankrupt him? Yeah, great idea! Are there any laws we can create to bring him down? Not sure that would work, let’s just confuse everybody and throw everything against the wall and see what sticks. We’ll keep the simple muppets outraged right up until election day in November, 2024. Good idea! Hey, by the way, can you lend me a few bucks until pay day? My kid hasn’t eaten in two days… you know, everything is so expensive and all because of Trump.”

  91. SmallGovConservative says:

    Hughesrep says:
    October 28, 2023 at 4:45 am
    “Don’t bother replacing a heat exchanger…Daikin makes good stuff…I’d buy the least expensive condensing furnace…”

    Thanks for the furnace info.

    RentL0rd says:
    October 28, 2023 at 8:52 am
    “Conway Heating & Cooling…”

    Thanks for the contact info.

  92. leftwing says:

    Chi, LOL on puck bunnies…..oh yeah, been aware of that for a while :)

    How’d you not intersect with that in Ithaca, not like we had any other D1 competitive teams other than rowing and fencing, ha!

    Personally, I had a little run in with minor league player back in the day where I guess I crossed some invisible line with one of the smoke show blondie groupies hanging around that flyover rink…best not to get sideways with a beef cake from Moose Jaw whose only other option in life is heading back to his logging job up North…good story over a beer.

  93. Bystander says:

    McKinsey spoof. This is perfect.


  94. Juice Box says:

    Picked up the TV went with the standard 65 in LG brand UHD led tv on sale Black Friday ar BestBuy, they had one for $399. I went with the slightly better $459 model and used a gift card for the difference. Picture is great, and since it’s installed in the our basement 2nd family room I setup for my kids and their friends. I bought the warranty 5 years for $100. There is a good chance it will “break” and Best Buy will give me a new one pretty much no questioned asked. My kid kicks his soccer ball down there and the kids play video games and make a mess usually every weekend.

    I remember paying $6,000 for one of these only a few years ago, Sony brand at the time. That also broke and developed a line. The gave me brand new one as a replacement, and that broke too , better model as well only had to send in some pictures of the line down the screen. The 75 in Sony I have now in our Living Room is ok but I have noticed the apps run slower, probably could use a processor upgrade. I already added memory via a USB stick.

    For the newer TVs there is a new cable for HDMI 2.1a…pretty significant picture quality upgrades.


  95. BRT says:

    HVAC guy told me a lot of the name brand heating and acs have resorted to a service business model where parts and service are jacked up. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are designing the parts to expire because the US business model seems to be to try to get your customers like a fish. He only installs brands that haven’t resorted to that now for the sake of his customers.

  96. Phoenix says:

    CAPITALISM at it’s finest. Greed is good.

    BRT says:
    October 28, 2023 at 10:33 am
    HVAC guy told me a lot of the name brand heating and acs have resorted to a service business model where parts and service are jacked up. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are designing the parts to expire because the US business model seems to be to try to get your customers like a fish. He only installs brands that haven’t resorted to that now for the sake of his customers.

  97. Hold my beer says:


    Yeah I hear you on the debt. Only 2 of mine have a lot of debt but they’ve been paying it down over the last few years.

    I’m going to launch a small cap experiment. I’m going to create a separate account just for small caps with a few grand. Nothing can have a market cap over 5 billion at time of initial buy, preferably under 2 billion. Will have at least 6 stocks and no more than 15. Will just buy and hold. No selling unless valuation gets ridiculously high, there’s a buyout offer at a huge premium, or ceo does a perp walk. I think every small cap I have has dropped at least 30% and some over 50% over the last 18 months from Its high. I plan to add $500 or so every month and buy the one or two that have the best value. I’ve read about the coffee can approach where you buy a selection of stocks and do nothing but hold for years or even decades. If something goes to zero within a few years it most likely will only have 2 grand sunk into it. But maybe I will get lucky and have 1 or 2 become 10 or 20 baggers over the next decade. And nothing exotic. No biotech, pharmacy or Brazilian fintech or the Amazon of Argentina.

    My main account is now pretty much set and forget but over half the money is in mega caps and large caps I picked up during the big sell off.

  98. RentL0rd says:

    Whatever happened to the law and order Republican party when it comes to the Orange man? Hypocrites!

    And the effin Mike Johnson is what they got?

  99. Juice Box says:

    Buddy of mine got caught up in the protests yesterday at Grand Central. He was livid they closed it down no train back to Westchester. He had to hoof it up to 125 st and catch the train there.

    Protestors were wearing masks too, here is the NYPD parading those arrested yesterday about 300 or so.


  100. LAX says:

    9:28….So my guess is that Trump has been getting huge sums of money from nefarious sources. The Judge has demanded that Trump “name” the owners and co-owners of the buildings. The investors where he got his money. So that’ll be interesting. I think they just want him out of NY all together. He’s a blight there. So if they can accomplish this, they’d achieve their ends. Who knows how far this will reach? I doubt Jerad and Invanka will escape unscathed. The insane amount of money these two boneheads got from Saudi’s for starters.

  101. LAX says:

    12:41 I think they’re afraid of him, because of how much money he has, but if he knows his goose is cooked and they needn’t act rashly to punish the menace in small increments, but rather wait until the real shit falls on his head. See how that plays out.

  102. D-FENS says:

    My guess is they are making Sh1t up

    LAX says:
    October 28, 2023 at 2:26 pm
    9:28….So my guess is that Trump has been getting huge sums of money from nefarious sources. The Judge has demanded that Trump “name” the owners and co-owners of the buildings. The investors where he got his money. So that’ll be interesting. I think they just want him out of NY all together. He’s a blight there. So if they can accomplish this, they’d achieve their ends. Who knows how far this will reach? I doubt Jerad and Invanka will escape unscathed. The insane amount of money these two boneheads got from Saudi’s for starters.

  103. LAX says:

    “San Francisco has the longest timelines in the state for advancing a housing project from submittal to construction,” the report found. Just to get approved, or “entitled” in the city’s langage, takes 523 days on average, 50% more than the next-slowest jurisdiction. After the approval, it takes another 605 days—that’s nearly two years—to issue other building permits.

    That’s thanks to local control, and a discretionary process that can override essentially any development, even those that conform to existing zoning regulations—meaning projects can be delayed by officials’ demands or by a single community member unhappy about some aspect of the development.

    Following the report’s release, in a statement, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said: “California’s affordability crisis is one of our own making—the decisions we made limited the creation of housing we need. Nowhere is this fact more evident than in San Francisco.”

    ‘Affluent NIMBYs’ derail housing ‘
    “San Francisco is an outlier on housing approvals, in part because of how it applies a blanket discretionary review process to all building permits,” the report found. The city’s “housing approval processes are also notoriously complex and cumbersome, creating unpredictability and uncertainty,” it found, creating an environment where only seasoned developers have the know-how to navigate the process, while new ones don’t even try

  104. LAX says:

    Two of the most populated and highest taxing states in the country — California and New York — lost about $92 billion in income over two years as a result of recent exoduses. Here’s what’s driving these great migrations and where those billions of dollars landed.

    New York state lost $25 billion in adjusted gross income from migration out of the state in 2021, according to Internal Revenue Service data analyzed by CNBC. This was on top of the $20 billion the state lost in 2020.

    As for California, the Golden State lost $29 billion in 2021 after losing $18 billion in 2020.

    That’s a total of $92 billion between them over just two years. And overall, both states went from a budget surplus to a deficit.

    However, New Yorkers and Californians can’t put all the blame on COVID-19. Migration from both states represents a growing trend that merely picked up speed during the pandemic as higher-income earners and businesses seek out lower-tax areas to set up shop.

    Even so, the numbers were staggering. California and New York have seen more than three times the combined losses from before the pandemic in 2019, according to CNBC.

  105. RentL0rd says:

    About HVACs – I was chatting with a 82yo aquintance about my Trane HVAC.. he listened patiently and then said he built his own heating system 50 years ago when he bought his house. He services it himself once a year and it has not broken on him once!

    He is also fit as a fiddle. They don’t make like him or that hvac no more.

  106. Juice Box says:

    My mons HVAC lasted about 40 yrs, neighbor did the service etc, his kids were friends of mine growing up. He always told dear old mom it would need to be replaced, and well did not happen until recently, she actually chose another contractor over the old neighbor and well the old one was not irish..

    It is what it is…

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