End of the Realtors?

From CNN:

After a $1.8 billion verdict, the clock is ticking on the 6% real estate commission

Using a travel agent to buy a plane ticket or a stockbroker to trade equities seem like relics of the past. And yet, every day, people across America hire a real estate agent to help them sell a home. It’s one of the few industries that has been able to largely avoid the disruption that has helped consumers cut costs in the Internet age.

And that is largely because of the power of the National Association of Realtors, the largest professional organization in America and a significant lobbying group for the real estate industry.

But the verdict handed down in a Missouri court on Tuesday that found NAR and two brokerage firms, Homeservices of America and Keller Williams Realty, were liable for $1.8 billion in damages for conspiring to keep commissions artificially high, may mark the beginning of the end of how homes are bought and sold.

Two other firms initially named in the suits brought by home sellers – Re/Max and Anywhere Real estate, formerly known as Realogy, which is the parent company of Coldwell Banker, Century 21, Sotheby’s International Realty and Corcoran — settled out of court for a combined $140 million. As a term of the settlement, they each announced a commitment to make changes in their business practices — including not requiring agents to be members of NAR.

NAR and the brokerages have vowed to appeal the verdict, which means real estate commissions aren’t going anywhere immediately.

NAR has been fighting off US antitrust officials and litigation for years regarding anti-competitive practices and this verdict is the association’s biggest setback yet.

This verdict is just from one of several lawsuits currently filed against NAR, which is also facing scrutiny from the US Department of Justice.

NAR has already faced a difficult year, setting aside the verdict and the troubled housing market.

In August, the NAR president, a member agent named Kenny Parcell, resigned amid sexual harassment allegations. Last month Redfin, an internet real estate company, left the association.

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93 Responses to End of the Realtors?

  1. dentss Dunnigan says:


  2. Fast Eddie says:

    6% commissions for an ex shampoo technician to tell me a kitchen is a kitchen. And for those high end joints in Alpine and Saddle River, only the Chads and Stacys are allowed to get a piece of the action as they’re getting a piece of the action discreetly in one of the eight bedrooms after an ‘exclusive’ open house. The whole industry is worthy of a good SNL skit and ripe for a best selling chick novel. Damn, I think I just laid the foundation for a NYT best seller in the fiction category.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    “There are buyers that aren’t going to know the steps to buy a home,” Davis said. “They have to pay for a down payment, closing costs, appraisals, inspections. If they also have to come up with money to pay for a buyer’s agent, some just won’t and they’ll get in over their heads or they won’t buy at all. Not having representation will make the market less inclusive.”

    This is comedy gold right here. The only thing missing is a closing statement that says, “It’s for the children.”

  4. BRT says:

    Our first real estate agent was the wife of a friend of our parents. It was her “2nd job”. She was just there to open the door, nothing else. We wanted to put in an offer and she waited 2 days and the thing went into contract and we were out of luck. We dropped her like a bad habit.

    My 2nd real estate agent earned his commission. Seller’s agent was vacationing in Germany after open house and apparently 5 offers came in (I found out from my neighbor years later). He, behind the scenes, did all the legwork and the other agents job to get it closed before a bidding war erupted. In hindsight, he immediately saved me $20 to $25k. Had we not closed on the property, there was nothing else attractive in town for another 7 months.

  5. Very Stable Genius says:

    Other than proudly not buying Starbucks, old people make no arrangements for their old age. Most seem to be surprised to get old. Old people vote socialist universal healthcare for themselves.

    Phoenix says:
    November 4, 2023 at 5:37 pm
    Make it up, you have no idea what I see.

    Just wait till they get sick, and you are operating on people who have terminal diseases that cannot be cured, they never get off a ventilator, and they die in the ICU after banging up a bill over 1M.

    They could have stayed at home with their families, and looked at picture albums for their last days.

    But nope.

    If you made them pay the bills for the care their relatives received, care that made no sense at all being done, I’d bet things would change.

  6. Boomer Remover says:

    Watched this unit sell, for what I thought was way over comps, and just five days later be put up for rent at the outrageous price presumably needed to cover the loan.


    Not sure if the sale in August of this year was market. The October sale was like a 70% premium to August sale.

    “6-month minimum lease, 2 garage parking spots, water/gas/trash/DirecTV included, the unit will be repainted prior to move-in” For $5.5K in the desert, I would hope so!

  7. 3b says:

    VSG: Lots of old people make good plans, sadly, some of their children have other plans. All the planning in the world means nothing if the people you chose to execute your plans are not trustworthy.

  8. Boomer Remover says:

    My wife and I gave some thought to how we would like our money spent, and both liked the idea of a trust that provides a steady amount over time as opposed to a large windfall, or something that permits liquidation. We thought about this in a socioeconomic/mobility context as well as a pragmatic one.

    You guys are moneyed and with kids, I am curious if you feel very strongly in either direction.

  9. Phoenix says:



    I’ve had some dumb old men who left their healthcare decisions to their ex-wives.

    They legally/medically tortured them until their last breath using Medicare money.

    Absolute sadism.

  10. Trick says:

    House a few doors down that listed for 500 sold for 600. Lasted 1 weekend

  11. Libturd says:


    If Gator and I pass before Gator Junior is 30, he gets his 1/3rd share split into 1/3rds which he receives at age 30, 35 and 40. This way, if he blows it the first time. He will get two more chances.

  12. leftwing says:

    “you got me there! Damn it”

    Haha, love ya brother!

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    House a few doors down that listed for 500 sold for 600. Lasted 1 weekend

    A for sale sign went on a standard split last week on the corner of side street with a double yellow address on main road… a half mile from my house. It now has a sale pending sign on the lawn. I wonder how many bids were offered the first day?

  14. leftwing says:

    Like WFH or most things in life I suppose using a buyer’s agent depends on the individual’s particular circumstance.

    Can your run-of-the-mill agent be of value for some buyers? Yeah…if the the buyers are local probably for the same types who take their cars to the dealership for out-of-pocket servicing or who buy third party insurance policies on appliances…

    For out-of-towners and corporate relocation? Probably higher value if the agent is highly knowledgeable about the specific municipality and especially if they are candid…

    Which reinforces examples given above…as with any professional service provider – accountant, lawyer, banker – a fatal flaw is assuming all are created equal…far from it.

    Personally, I never really used a buyers agent except for the first time which was a shit show yet necessary as it was back in the day when MLS came out in large printed volumes held behind the desks at brokerages which you had little chance of accessing otherwise…

    After, I always shopped myself and when ready to bid told the selling agent to pick a friend in her firm to represent me…

    On the sell side I don’t think I’ve ever paid full fare…best deal was if IIRC a straight 4.0%, 1.5 to seller 2.5 to buyer…it was a redeveloped knockdown, so brand new, in a market like this…no negotiating over existing drapes or fixtures, going to be a cash buyer, no issues on driveways, tanks, roofs, or basements….just north of $2.5m we literally handed the sell side nearly a $40k check for an MLS listing, a little pre-marketing, and having some minimum wage young 20-something stand around an open house and take names….that went to a friend who we used often…

    And notably this broker was insistent on giving the 2.5% out to the buy side…flat out told us that certain buyers agents would not show or would dissuade their buyers from looking at anything that broke that offer…may actually have that statement in an email, should forward it on to some plaintiffs’ counsel lol.

  15. leftwing says:

    “A for sale sign went on a standard split last week on the corner of side street with a double yellow address on main road… a half mile from my house. It now has a sale pending sign on the lawn.”


    Move baby. You know you want to…you know it’s time….ring that NNJ register and hop the I75/I95 corridors to Red country and bank the difference….your time has come!!!

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    your time has come!!!

    When the knock on the door comes with a seven figure offer, then it’ll be time. In the meanwhile, I’ll work on searching for that pickup truck that catches my eye and seeing how long I can grow my beard. :)

  17. Mike S says:

    btw a good tactic if seller and buyer cannot agree on terms – is to ask real estate agent to take the cut – my parents have done this successfully multiple times

  18. BRT says:

    My son is already into dumpster diving at age 11. I’m pretty sure I could leave it all to him and not a single cent gets spent.

  19. leftwing says:

    “I’ll work on searching for that pickup truck that catches my eye and seeing how long I can grow my beard.”

    No hipster shit on either count….that beard needs to be free range, not groomed and waxed….

  20. leftwing says:

    Lib, trimmed some stuff…not trying to time or anything, just that a few positions moved very quickly after putting them on in the last couple weeks or so and the option positions were well on their way toward max profit pretty early, ie. the remaining profit just not worth the risk or capital of hanging around and waiting for full realization at expiry. Also, that I’m solidly back through ATH helps…

    Out of all GOOG and META options, trimmed some MS, wrote some covered calls on some BAC to reduce position size and trim delta. Not sure if I posted but last week also exited all my DG and AMD.

    Largest positions are MS, AXP, and RSP. Some hangers-on in TRIP, AAP, NDAQ, VNO, WBA. Couple others.

    Treading water for an opportunity to hit my buy list hard at limits…need Bibi or Putin to lose their cool….

  21. LAX says:

    12:35 beards hide a multitude of sins.

  22. 3b says:

    Left: Are Hipsters still a thing?

  23. Libturd says:

    Be careful what you wish for.

    I am 100% in. I am doing quite well with QQQE. It’s nice to see my total worth get back to where it was almost three months ago after a week. I think it’s a slow melt upwards until economic numbers show more pain.

    We are in market crazytown, or backwards world. From my watchtower, I see corporate earnings have bottomed and have just started to recover. Outside of the Magnificent 7 or whatever catchy phrase CNBC comes up with the current basket of over-weighted in-the-Nasdaq index stocks, valuations are the lowest they’ve been in a decade. Earnings drive stock prices and they really only have one way to go. Of course, you might be thinking, what if the soft landing is not-so-soft? Easy. Any negative news is going to be seen as positive as it will drive people into thinking the FED MIGHT cut rates. So good news, is good for earnings and fundamental stock prices. Bad news is good for stock market sentiment as a mere glimpse of Powell’s pocketknife sets a fire under the market’s ass (as we saw this week after the touch bad job numbers).

    Even if I am wrong, enough time has elapsed since the stimulus/inflation driven bear that the all-time historic upwards trend in the markets.


  24. LAX says:

    Homebuyers are backing out of deals at the highest rate in nearly a year, a new study found. The culprit: higher mortgage rates.

    Roughly 53,000 US home purchase agreements fell through in September, according to Redfin, equal to 16.3% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s the highest percentage of canceled contracts since October 2022 when mortgage rates surpassed 7% for the first time in two decades. The share is also up from 15.2% a month earlier and 15.8% a year earlier.

    Pandemic boomtowns where home prices skyrocketed due to the influx of remote workers were hit the hardest with buyers with cold feet, Redfin noted, with some areas in Florida seeing contract cancellation rates over 20%.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    beards hide a multitude of sins.

    I’m a dirty old man and damn proud of it!

  26. Fast Eddie says:

    Homebuyers are backing out of deals at the highest rate in nearly a year, a new study found. The culprit: higher mortgage rates.

    Not in Northern NJ… not because of interest rates nor cold feet. We’re bleeding wealth here. Bidding and buying in this neck of the woods is for the pros only. Pretenders need to look west of the Poconos or north of New Paltz if they’re only capable of playing double A ball.

  27. Boomer Remover says:

    BRT, My propensity to hoard money is not something which I hope to pass down. Work in progress, we’ll see.
    Lib, the tranches are interesting, and perhaps more practical than monthly payments.

    Left, Eddie is never going to sell.

    I was on reddit last night and a first time buyer was being talked down by his realtor (refreshing change) from making an offer 25% over listing. This is for a home in East Orange bordering Glen Ridge listed at $420. First time buyer wanted to do $525K because so fed up with being outbid in Keary and Bloomfield.

    You know it’s a crazy idea when the entire first time buyers subreddit tells you its not a good idea.

  28. Libturd says:


    When we bought in 2004, we were told to “stretch” into ourhome.

  29. LAX says:

    And now this: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/student-loan-debt-teachers-turning-porn-pay-all-off

    Some teachers are quitting their jobs and turning to porn to pay off their student loan debt, which exceeds $50,000 on average.

    Two teachers from the same high school in Missouri were placed on leave after their bosses found out the educators were operating OnlyFans accounts. Both said paying off student loan debt was one of their top reasons for selling racy content.

    Brianna Coppage was an English teacher at St. Clair High School when administrators pulled her into a meeting in September and asked if she was secretly running an account on OnlyFans.

    “They specifically said they got a report from an adult in the Sullivan School District, and they asked, do I have any other income streams, like outside of teaching? And I said, ‘Yes, I do have an OnlyFans.’ They asked how long I had been doing it, if it was during my own time or … anything at school, which I told them,” she told Fox News Digital.

  30. leftwing says:

    Dumped some of my TRIP, Lib.

    Good earnings after market, stock up 7% or so….

  31. No One says:

    I don’t know about a SNL realtor skit, but South Park did a recent episode featuring realtors.

  32. Libturd says:

    TRIP should be able to make some serious money. I am not sure they don’t. I use them with nearly every travel trip.

  33. leftwing says:

    On the other stuff, yes, QQQE and my RSP are cousins and have performed well…

    For me, I’m still in the area of not making forecasts but as I said over a year ago I’ll let the market tell me what to do when she gets near that 4400 or so goalpost or down to 4000.

    Back then I posted I had a few positions locked that would give me a 10% return on the portfolio when we were all prognosticating on market direction around 4000…that gave me the comfort to not FOMO up to that triple top around 4500, which was not sustainable. Stayed out of the way of that roundtrip. The penultimate of those positions was the META that I recently dumped (still have some locked VNO but not in enough size to matter)….so no more Linus blanket….

    In the meantime adding to that baseline return I had a pretty good year, traded VIX like a champ and have a very comfortable ‘falling knife’ strategy with options that has worked nicely in this nearly three year range bound market. I’ll keep that up, again, until the market tells me to do something differently.

    I agree and I am encouraged that for the first time in a number of quarters we are seeing actual earnings acceleration…that’s a positive. And we have seasonality now at our backs.

    I am concerned about the bond market volatility…yes, it was a positive that yields retraced so strongly to provide last week’s equity rally, however, that movement is not normal nor a sign of a healthy market, ie. she can just as easily and swiftly move against you….

    One last caution on this oft mentioned ‘observation’ which I hesitate to call analysis…

    “Outside of…the current basket of [seven] over-weighted in-the-Nasdaq index stocks, valuations are the lowest they’ve been in a decade.”

    Yes, but no….Everyone seems to be eliminating the largest weighted stocks trading at the highest multiple and then comparing the resultant stocks’ much lower multiple to the historical multiple of the *entire* index….Problem being, to have a proper analysis one should compare this lower, exclusive multiple to the same historical basis, ie. subtract out from prior periods the leading, highest multiple, weighted stocks…Every period has its price and weighted leaders and they are usually the highest multiple stocks. Rarely do you see the higher weighted stocks in the index being low multiple companies…can’t recall the last time GE or Ford was the highest weighted stock in the SPX…

    So while I agree these other 493 stocks are below ‘market’ multiples and the place to shop for ‘bargains’ (as I have done through the RSP) I would really caution relying on that non-analysis, analysis…each of the 50 times a day I hear that observation on CNBC it is like finger nails on a chalkboard, just a real bad intellectual exercise if one can not provide the historical multiples for this phenomenon over time….which multiples would be much closer to the ‘other 493’ stocks current multiple than the much higher complete index multiple…

  34. RentL0rd says:

    The fact that there is so much redundant paper work involved in buying a house is where the problem lies. I bought, lived in and sold, 3 houses in different states. Each state was different. In some states buyers and sellers don’t see each other at all. I know the feeling you get when you go down the list of fees in a multi-page spreadsheet. Title verification fees? An insurance to protect your insurance? You name it, it’s there. The only thing worse than some of the real estate fees is the “Nitrogen” fees paid on a car purchase. It’s ridiculous!

    I was talking to an agent aquintance over the weekend about this lawsuit and she is like – “Oh, I kinda heard about it… but haven’t read the details”. How clueless can this country get?

  35. No One says:

    Boomer Remover,
    If my wife and I die, my kid gets it all via a trust. I’d be dead so am not going to worry whether she invests/spends it wisely or not.
    I think the trust structure presents a husband from getting it jointly, or losing it in a lawsuit, but that’s about all the conditions.

  36. leftwing says:

    “TRIP should be able to make some serious money. I am not sure they don’t. I use them with nearly every travel trip.”

    Yes, we spoke about their ability to monetize when I put on the position a couple weeks ago or so…I started adding days after Goldman initiated at $22….LOL, 16 of 20 firms covering it had ‘hold’ or ‘sell’ ratings with price targets in the teens and GS lays that firebomb…sometimes it is just that easy…no problem swimming in the wake of the vampire squid, ha. Goldman isn’t bucking that trend publicly unless they know….

  37. leftwing says:

    Haha, one of those teachers made more than $1m on OnlyFans in six months…

    Nothing like being a hot chick in America….

  38. leftwing says:

    And honestly she’s not that hot…not being an ass, just….$1m? JFC.

  39. chicagofinance says:

    Inheritance should be separated out in a divorce. If you get $1M inheritance and file the next day, the spouse isn’t going to get half.

    If you get $1M and sit on it 10 years, yes, there is marital property there in the sense of the earnings and investment experience on the $1M is shared, but not the $1M itself.

    Do not rely on this information. You must consult an attorney. Also a Trust is absolute, so there is no shenanigans.

    No One says:
    November 6, 2023 at 4:55 pm
    Boomer Remover,
    If my wife and I die, my kid gets it all via a trust. I’d be dead so am not going to worry whether she invests/spends it wisely or not.
    I think the trust structure presents a husband from getting it jointly, or losing it in a lawsuit, but that’s about all the conditions.

  40. Comrade Nom Deplume, still Salty. says:

    Off topic but damn, the Gooners are doing so much whining, from Arteta all the way to FB and beyond. Now I understand Fabius a lot better.

  41. Comrade Nom Deplume, using NJ as trainover country. says:

    ChiFi, you speak the truth as usual. Like any tool, you have to use the right trust for the right purpose. I am trying to start a trust mill with an accountant in Nevada. Pretty solid protection and you don’t have to go offshore. BTW, I am working out of a firm in Midtown now and in the city 1-2x per month.

  42. Jim says:

    Berkshire Hathaway posts surge in profits and record cash. Warren Buffett’s Omaha-based conglomerate reported a 40% increase in operating profits to $10.8 billion and grew its cash pile to a record $157 billion last quarter. Buffett seemed pretty sour on stocks: In Q3, he sold more than $5 billion worth of US and foreign stocks while piling money into Treasury bills now yielding 5% or more. Berkshire-owned insurance company Geico, which Buffett has called his “favorite child,” continued to bounce back from its recent slump with underwriting earnings of $1.1 billion.

    After 19 years I have dropped Geico when they raised my insurance to $2278 for 1 year ( policy is for 6 months at a time x 2=1YR) picked up NJM for $1552 per year for a savings of $726 a year. I think Buffet will lose customers on his increases. We have a good friend who also changed companies . Buffet switching to 5% treasuries is also very telling while he dumps US and foreign stocks.

  43. Very Stable Genius says:

    Didn’t JJ peddle AAA rated bonds. And bought cds to insure them? What a risk taker.

    I’m 100% in. 401k is VIIIX. Rest on VTI

    Don’t bet against America. The constitution is greater than any man.

    Libturd says:
    November 6, 2023 at 1:33 pm
    Be careful what you wish for.

    I am 100% in. I am doing quite well with QQQE. It’s nice to see my total worth get back to where it was almost three months ago after a week. I think it’s a slow melt upwards until economic numbers show more pain.

  44. leftwing says:

    “If you get $1M and sit on it 10 years, yes, there is marital property there in the sense of the earnings and investment experience on the $1M is shared, but not the $1M itself.”

    You sure about that? Did not experience an inheritance myself, but for the array of our assets if they hit the marital pool – even if received before the marriage – the assets themselves were marital property. Like you, not an attorney so people should consult one…

    Red, yes, great on the hockey…less so everything else.

  45. 3b says:

    Guggenheim sees a recession in the first half of 2024, with the Fed making a pivot( there’s that word again), and cutting rates 150 bp and perhaps more in 2025. And all will be well again!!

  46. crushednjmillenial says:


    I can’t wait to vote against the party of covid shutdowns, disrespect to Free Speech, racial division, ineffective spending, and a weaponized criminal justice system.

  47. Libturd says:

    If what Guggenheim says comes true, you better get in before the pivot or you will probably miss a lot of the bull.

  48. Libturd says:

    I voted again as I always do. Through a mail-in ballot for NOTA.

  49. 3b says:

    Lib: I don’t see a pivot, I could be wrong, and if they do it will be in slow increments. What I do see is a whole group of so called market experts who can’t accept that after 15 years or so of free money, we are going back to moral normal rates. Fed recklessness has to be repaired.

  50. Fast Eddie says:

    Pivot to what? The FED’s going to drop rates in 2024? Walk into a store and buy an item under $5.00. What, a package of salt? Call a plumber for a standard job. The price is off the charts. The inflation rate they tell you doesn’t match the actual rate. Every dinner gets repurposed, lunch is whatever you can find, visits to the office are bare minimum. I refuse to join the $10,000 plus CC debt (and growing) club on the shoulders of every household. It’s madness to think the FED will reduce in 2024.

  51. 3b says:

    Fast: I agree, but that’s the crap that’s being peddled out there in the financial press.

  52. TuesdayElectionDay Brainstorming says:


    Pray tell me what you think a 2nd Trump administration will be like? Put your thoughts down and describe how you see the future in 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and beyond?

    I see 2 problems (outside the US of A as is know gone forever). For what he wants he needs loyal people. Loyal people are incompetent and corrupt. Those are the trade off a autocrat must accept to be an autocrat.

    1)Corruption. Everything at every level will be for sale. It will make Frank “I’m the law” Hague look like a boy scout. First it will be small and then progress into organize crime rackets at every level of every variation and ethnicity. Think of the criminal elements in the movie “Looper”.

    2)Economic & military destruction among everything else that gets destructed. Economic and social policies that are being planned by his trust are essentially the policies the Peronistas in Argentina have promoted for since WW2. Right social and left economics. The imcompetence and recklessness of his people will ensure a destroyed military. Do you actually think fracking is not going to happen if they are asked to shoot civilians? Along with massive quitting, desertion and destruction and disabling of equipment?

  53. leftwing says:

    “If what Guggenheim says comes true, you better get in before the pivot or you will probably miss a lot of the bull.”

    Your 5-6% equity gift last week represented a change in market expectations regarding higher/longer, no?

    Good interview on CNBC with Goolsbee earlier this morning…voting member and President. Some nice incisive questions from Liesman. One of which was if inflation keeps dropping and the Fed holds the nominal rate then the real rate, already at 16 year highs, would continue to expand and would be restrictive despite the headline nominal rate not moving.

    Goolsbee answer was interesting in that he said basically that if inflation keeps dropping but is still above target he could see holding nominal rates…the distinct feeling I got from the answer in the context of the interview was this outcome may be preferred in that it would allow the Fed to continue ‘tightening’ without moving the nominal rate giving them the best of both worlds….policy they want without any of the headline risk or action.

    Kashkari, also a voting member, apparently came out yesterday more hawkish on an actual raise.

    Both may be instances of the Fed trying to talk markets down after last week so rates/equities don’t get away from them but for the most part right now, best info available I think anyone looking for more than a cut or two *later* next year absent a recession is smoking dope.

    150bps in cuts? Flat out ‘shrooming.

  54. 3b says:

    Left: We shall see, Guggenheim is calling fora recession, and so their aggressive rate cut call. If they are right, and they do cut that much, then inflation, including asset i inflation takes off again I would think.

  55. Libturd says:

    The financial experts have been wrong now for about the last six meetings. No one knows what is truly going to happen. But there are really only two options.

    1) Keep on raising rates to slow inflation, but killing housing for all but the richest as long as mortgage rates can only be afforded to the top 1%. This will continue to slow new construction, further restricting supply and continuing to increase rents for the enlarging group of renters. IMO, the FED can only do this for another basis point or two tops before the whole economy crumbles.

    2) Stop raising rates, live with lower inflation (though not quite 2% low) and wait for more of an equilibrium between housing prices and rent. IMO, this is what the FED will do. This is the soft landing scenario.

    3) Pivoting will only happen if there is a deep recession, to get labor back in shape. IMO, the labor market is too strong now for a deep recession to occur. Add in the hot consumer (most likely stoked by the positive sentiment caused from continuing to pay down their low-rate mortgages, which get smaller as inflation raises our wages), who even with increased interest on credit card and auto debt, feel house rich. Plus, the corporate earnings growth, which is finally back, should keep any serious recession at bay.

    NoStuDamous says: Fed is probably done, but inflation heats up further, could say the FED raising rates another 1 to 2% in total. Mortgage lending rates won’t stay above 10% for any extended period of time as housing markets will suffer before then. As usual, the haughty taughty neighborhoods will be the last to experience it and the last to recover as great discounts will be had in the more blue-collar neighboring towns. FED lending rates will stay between 4 and 6% for the foreseeable future.

  56. Fast Eddie says:

    CNN and FOX are broadcasting families of Hamas hostages speaking on Capital Hill. It’s beyond painful to listen what went down second by second on October 7th. MSNBC is talking about Trump.

  57. Libturd says:

    Oil dropping. Ten-year dropping. Nasdaq up another 1%. Even the Russel stopped dropping. Things are starting to feel like this Santa rally might have wings. no?

    Even Gingko is up.

  58. Libturd says:

    And let the truth be told. I haven’t watched CNBC or listened to Bloomberg in years. Not for one stinking minute. What economic news I do get is mainly from my daily Bloomberg email and whatever wheat I can separate from the chaff among the Yahoo Finance burning tire fire they call news. 99% of what you see, hear or read is noise intended to separate you from your money. History is the best teacher and with age comes more experience and wisdom. This is where these silly guesstimates are derived from. Besides the Buffet, Mungers, Templeton’s Graham’s and a few other stalwarts like Peter Lynch whose experience levels are unmatched, I ignore the crop of newbies. The vast majority of them are simply hawking their own products or are trying to manipulate the market for their personal gain. There is absolutely nothing to be gained from CNBC. It’s all bullshit. Why? Because what’s happening now is really too late to profit off. You must be proactive to avoid holding the bag. It’s why I am so often too early to the race, but patience and discipline usually bails me out.

    Left, I hear you on the valuations and weightings and thought of that already. It’s impossible to benchmark though, with my limited toolset. I still have plenty of the weighted names in my portfolio anyway, through other index funds I hold plus the limited names I have to choose from in my 401K. So at the minimum, the QQQE provides me a little diversification, though I’d like it even more if they didn’t even include the Magnificent 7.

  59. leftwing says:

    “NoStuDamous says: Fed is probably done, but inflation heats up further, could say the FED raising rates another 1 to 2% in total.”

    Don’t see 100-200bps in raises in any scenario….

    First economy is not/won’t be that strong…secondly, it’s an election year where the Fed always and intentionally tries to stay on the sidelines with no action…

    Also, Fed doesn’t key off housing…they have enough issues balancing their actual dual mandate of inflation control and employment….

    Could see another 25bps, but soon (Dec/Jan), 50bps absolute tops or they effectively risk handing the election to the Rs….

  60. leftwing says:

    “There is absolutely nothing to be gained from CNBC. It’s all bullshit.”

    Hard disagree there.

    Yes the announcers, journalists, and market ‘experts’ are entirely useless…

    For first person, real time, and especially a visual read of actual decision makers…unless you want to start buying a table for me at the Economic Club of NY, the CFR, and getting me into one-on-one analyst presentations I’ll take those feeds all day long.

    Some of my best trades and LT investments have come from these interviews…and in somewhat agreement with you, mostly from these interviews where my (objective) reality is colliding with my bullshit meter of what’s being fed and reacted to in the market…

  61. Libturd says:

    Yes Left,

    I suppose there is an investing opportunity there as the masses are asses and often act on the bullshit spun there. It’s just not my style of investing. Though, admittedly, I have profited off of the stupidity of their audience. Though, I would posit, Seeking Alpha used to be the true killing fields for this type of information.

  62. 3b says:

    Lib: I don t buy the soft landing scenario, and I don think the economy is as strong as it might appear to be-. Yes, there are still jobs being created, but how many are goof high paying/benefits jobs, lots of jobs in CVS, and supermarkets, hotel and hospitality and all of that. Tech/Wall street jobs not so much. The market was doing some heavier lifting there for the Fed on the long end, but rates have backed off since the Feds -announcement and Powell s comments last week.

  63. Very Stable Genius says:

    Amazing that Joe Kernen is a broadcaster.
    He speaks like George W. and his maga shtick is unbearable

    Libturd says:
    November 7, 2023 at 11:12 am

    “There is absolutely nothing to be gained from CNBC. It’s all bullshit.”

  64. Boomer Remover says:

    Seeking Alpha is the OG of disinformation sites.

  65. Trick says:

    Our towns Facebook page is blowing up with the boe election and gender issues in schools. Will not miss this vote.

  66. Chad Powers says:

    Boomer Remover,
    My wife and I started a KG (Kommanditgesellschaft) along with my daughter. It is a form of limited partnership in Germany. She can do what she wants with those assets in the KG once we die. Interestingly, a power of attorney in Germany is still valid after the death of an individual. These are centrally filed in Berlin as well as all those concerned having a paper copy. Using the power of attorney you can access bank accounts after death, etc.

  67. Boomer Remover says:

    Will not miss this vote.

    Same just heading out to vote now, that and half day dismissal. WFH makes it possible for me to skip downhill with my daughter.

  68. Libturd says:

    I just read where Trump is polling 4 points ahead of Biden, yet 8 points behind a generic unnamed Democrat.

    Heck, Harris is polling better than Biden. The establishment is so strong in the blue party that they can’t get out of their own way at this point. I suppose, I hate Trump enough to not want to see a repeat of Stephen Cobert standing on a stage with his hands in his pockets on Election night next year.

  69. leftwing says:

    “Amazing that Joe Kernen is a broadcaster. He speaks like George W. and his maga shtick is unbearable”

    His entire schtick. It’s all he has, it’s not funny, and it’s a ridiculous distraction given the gravitas of many of the guests. He tried it today with Goolsbee – fucking President of the Fed and this guy wants to go off on some personal tangent. Thankfully first Quick then Liesman stepped on top of him to keep things on track and then I have to imagine a producer as he just finally totally STFU and faded into the woodwork.

    If you want to really understand how bad he is, I usually catch that show – if I can bear it – on the radio or in my ear. With no video you appreciate (?) how horrible he is…he literally can not string a cogent thought together nor articulate it…I’ve often wondered if he was drunk on set and thought this morning that maybe the guy is a just chronic alcoholic with impairment.

  70. leftwing says:

    “I suppose there is an investing opportunity there as the masses are asses and often act on the bullshit spun there.”

    I think BRT won the “Short Cathy Wood” gran prix on here but I at least landed on the podium…

    Whenever she was on CNBC I could not hit the ‘sell to open’ button fast or hard enough…you didn’t need an MBA or experience with public company CEOs to discern what a train wreck she was…If you ever had a kid who blatantly told bad lies and tepid justifications to your face it was totally transparent she was making shit up as she was going along and clueless….

    I and my account are personally forever grateful to CNBC for giving her a mic and airtime…

  71. Libturd says:

    It appears I haven’t missed much lately.

  72. Libturd says:

    Don’t hear much about ARK any more. Did it sink?

  73. Libturd says:

    Time ARKK vs. Benchmark
    3-Year -26.36% 7.82%
    5-Year -1.12% 14.29%

    Another brilliant Pumpkin pick

  74. chicagofinance says:

    Is this how descendants have access to the Nazi Gold and fine art stolen (I mean liberated) from Das Juden?

    Chad Powers says:
    November 7, 2023 at 12:55 pm
    Boomer Remover,
    These are centrally filed in Berlin as well as all those concerned having a paper copy. Using the power of attorney you can access bank accounts after death, etc.

  75. BRT says:

    That was the easiest dumb money to bet against I’ve ever seen in the market. It was a 7 month short fest of 100% wins in the end.

  76. Chad Powers says:

    From what I have read the biggest thievery took place by the Swiss bankers. You know, secret bank accounts, etc. After the war Jewish descendants who were broke went to the banks get the family money. The bankers knew nothing, nothing I tell you, about any funds from their relatives being deposited in the bank. Years later it all came out and the Swiss bankers weren’t looking too good.

  77. leftwing says:

    Lib, took a toehold in ZBH. Earnings this morning, slight guide down on revenue expectations for 2023 due to currency, constant currency 2023 revenue forecast holds, EPS for quarter (1.65) beats last year (1.58) and expectations (1.60). Reaffirms 2023 EPS of 7.47- 7.57.

    At 105 (down 3%) that’s a 14x *current* P/E multiple into year end numbers that management should have down cold (only seven weeks away with three quarters in).

    Draw LT support line where you want but somewhere between 101 and 103.5 works for me…

    Decline seems like an overreaction.

    Buying today would violate three day rule and I haven’t looked at B/S, forward forecasts, or filings yet but did grab a few shares on the thought of how badly can I really get hurt near term.

  78. Boomer Remover says:

    Thanks to all who chimed in on trusts. The convo wasn’t deep but gave some food for thought.

    I remember sitting on high back dining chair in my Polish relative’s dining room. This chair was part of a 100+ year old dining set emblazoned with the initials of its former German owner, whose initials also adorned the facade of the home which my relatives have “occupied” since the turn of the 1930’s.

  79. Libturd says:

    Left, did a deep dive into ZBH. It’s a pretty safe play considering the P/E can only contract so far and that’s really what the story on this stock is.

    Value Line has a P/E and EPS prediction of 15 and $9.75 3 to 5 years out. I find this kind of crazy considering the average P/E, when throwing out the many outliers in the past decade was closer to 23. With a P/E of 23 and an EPS of 9.75, you get a stock price of 225, which is double from here. Though if the P/E is their predicted 15, then the stock price is a measly 146. Value lines predicted range low to high is 115 to 175. Then again, VL tends to skew conservative so there’s that.

    I do like the story that a lot of older people put off replacement surgery due to Covid and that panted up demand should help. I also like their new CEOs focus on margin in R&D, though it could be lip service.

    Will dig a bit deeper after din din to see what the other analysts think about their future P/E. Boomers gonna need some part replacements soon too.

  80. Hold my beer says:

    Credit card debt hits a new high. Will millennials and gen z increasing their credit card debt and having to pay on student loans make it easier for me to get k pop tickets?


    The kids wanted to go to Chili’s over the weekend. First time in years we’d gone. It’s now at least $20 a person even ordering the lower priced meals and a soda or lemonade plus tip. I was surprised to see more than one group of people who look like their clothes came from a dollar store eating there.

    Personally I’d rather go to a Grimaldis or a mom and pop Japanese or Korean or Vietnamese place.

  81. LAX says:

    Looks like Fetterman has a thing for Palestinians.

    He ain’t getting a second term. F’ing weirdo.

  82. LAX says:

    Jump into the way back machine:


    “July 4th, 1985”

  83. Very Stable Genius says:

    Abortion-Rights Supporters Rack Up Victories,
    Putting GOP in Bind for 2024

    From red Ohio and Kentucky to purple Virginia and Pennsylvania, Tuesday’s results show issue’s continued potency

  84. Very Stable Genius says:

    Last night results show that the Supreme Court is radicalized and out of step with rest of the country.

  85. TraitorJoe says:

    Obamacare was radical. Forcing people to buy a product they might not want. Forced experimental covid shots was radical. Not intervening in a state issue is constitutional unless you’re a power hungry leftist.

  86. Libturd says:

    “Obamacare was radical.”

    If radical equals drastic improvement, then yes.

    Treating women’s rights like the Taliban does is significantly more radical.

Comments are closed.