Oh boy, now they did it…

From Business Insider:

The myth of the housing bubble

Almost as soon as home prices began their unprecedented climb in 2020, doomsayers began warning of a looming crisis. The housing market, they claimed, was a bubble destined to burst.

A litany of supposed catalysts was going to send prices into a tailspin: the “Airbnbust,” the sudden surge in mortgage rates, a flood of grifters and hucksters looking to make a quick buck in real estate.Bubble watchers forecast chaos, then sat back and waited. And waited. And waited.

I’ve spent the past few years asking experts a simple question: Has the housing market reached bubble territory? The answer remains a resounding no. More than three years after prices started to soar, the only thing that’s gone bust is the gloomy predictions. Despite some cooling in a handful of overheated markets such as Charlotte, North Carolina, and Austin, the median home-sale price increased by a respectable 4% nationwide in 2023, Redfin reported. The price for a typical home has risen by more than 47% since late 2019, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, a closely watched measure of housing costs. 

But maybe I’ve been posing the wrong question all along. The B-word implies an impending pop, a point when the combination of greedy speculation, unscrupulous behavior, and soaring prices brings everything crashing down. Barring a large-scale economic disaster, there’s no pop in sight. 

The staggering jump in home prices is concerning, to be sure. But it’s a function of a severe lack of supply, not a byproduct of investors swarming the market or shady lenders artificially juicing demand. Those looking for parallels to 2008 are grasping at straws — homeowners are in far better financial shape than they were the last time prices cratered, and homebuilders, rather than flooding the market with new properties, aren’t keeping pace with the sheer volume of millennials suddenly consumed by dreams of backyards and picket fences.

So if you’ve been waiting — maybe even cheering — for prices to plummet: Don’t hold your breath. 

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

42 Responses to Oh boy, now they did it…

  1. dentss Dunnigan says:


  2. Hold my beer says:

    I’m cheering for my home builders based in Texas and the southeast y’all.

  3. grim says:

    Cheering or holding your breath? It’s one or the other really.

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    But it’s a function of a severe lack of supply…

    …and homebuilders, rather than flooding the market with new properties, aren’t keeping pace with the sheer volume of millennials suddenly consumed by dreams of backyards and picket fences.

    Au contraire, builders are building like mad, it’s just that they’re building hundreds of cardboard condo pods on top of each other with price tags on par with an established center hall colonial. Millennials can dream all they want about picket fences and backyards but that’s not happening. They don’t exist unless it’s an inside deal and you have an F-150 full of cash and a gift-wrapped basket of chex mix and merlot to offer. If I was near-suicidal house shopping 15 years ago, I can’t imagine the number of court appearances I’d have in today’s market.

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    By the way, that televised grilling of the Georgia DA and her lover did more than just reveal a conflict of interest. Holy crap. It may have spawned a dozen investigations into government abuse on many levels.

  6. 3b says:

    Backyards and picket fences, is that what Millenials dream of!

  7. 3b says:

    Fast: In Bergen Co, your old capes and ranches are going to start at 600 to 700k. These are the prices you will pay in Saddle Brook, Fair Lawn, River Edge, Westwood etc. For updated houses in these towns, it will be 800k and up. New construction in these towns,( tear downs/ rebuilds) will have a 1.5 million price tag. As you get into the more haughty sections of northeastern and northwestern Bergen co, start at 900k (if you are lucky) for a house on a busy street, and prices will go up from there. 2 million will get you perhaps something decent, but nothing special, and just price up from there. Property taxes in all of these towns will start at 15k and up from there.

    The Millenials will find a way to pay for this , they make 400k to 500k and up. Student loan payments, childcare, all the other expenses, they have it covered. It’s all good.

  8. TraitorJoe says:

    Eddie she’s a stupid liar. Perfect stooge for the left to sponsor and then throw out once they’ve fallen on their sword. She must have assumed the protection from scrutiny provided in the swamp would extend to Atlanta. They will just move on and tap the next one. The supply is limitless.

  9. 1987 Condo says:

    PPI- Up .3%, expected .1%

    Core- UP .5%

    muy caliente

  10. Fast Eddie says:


    It was mindboggling. Everything paid in cash, wall safes, tax liens on houses, no paper trail of the cash obtained or spent, spilling the beans about caviar and champagne, clients paying in cash… that’s just scratching the surface. I don’t know who was worse, him or her. And all I kept thinking was this is what happens when you don’t have 90% of the media to spin the narrative. You’re bare-assed naked in front of the tribunal and on your own. They had no idea they were going to get bludgeoned unmercifully and thrown to wolves.

  11. Fast Eddie says:

    Hey SNL, you have pure gold in a skit here, let’s see what you can do.

  12. Fast Eddie says:

    3b, I predict we see the 7-digit cape in Saddle Brook in 2025. Indecent proposals will be hard coded into the contracts.

  13. TraitorJoe says:

    The saddest part is this what soros and the left have reduced our National discourse to. They have our constitution under assault under attack by prime who can’t speak coherently or balance a checkbook. Where did this person get her qualifications. Must not have any standards.

  14. 3b says:

    Fast: If not sooner, and Fairlawn and Rochelle Park too.

  15. Very Stable Genius says:

    Reddit’s front page shows a 1960’s school of medicine rejection letter. Emory University goes to explain that the law didn’t allow them to accept black applicants. It returned the $5 application fee

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    3b: When does the siege on Paterson begin? Or has it already? I’ve said it before, the area at the end of Valley Road from Clifton entering Paterson is a village-like area that needs to be gentrified. It’s the St Joe’s hospital area. It has that vibe. From the north, we invade from Hawthorne and sack that area. From the east, Elmwood Park and Fair Lawn needs to invade. From the west, Wayne needs to shell Preakness Hill and plant their flag in that region.

  17. 3b says:

    Fast: Hawthorne should be annexed by Glen Rock, or maybe split between Glen Rock and Ridgewood. Of course, all those old 2 and 3 family houses will need to be demolished, and replaced with lots of farmhouse style white colonials . Lafayette Ave can be redeveloped with lots of trendy restaurants, and vintage clothing stores, and all that kind of stuff. Franklin Lakes should annex parts of Wayne.

  18. chicagofinance says:

    Wayne Lakes neighborhood or Franklin Wayne? ……. I am partial to Franklin Wayne; it has panache.

    3b says:
    February 16, 2024 at 9:32 am
    Franklin Lakes should annex parts of Wayne.

  19. 3b says:

    Chgo: Franklin Wayne works. I like it too.

  20. leftwing says:

    FE: “It was mindboggling.”

    TJ: “…[Willis, DA] can’t speak coherently or balance a checkbook. Where did this person get her qualifications. Must not have any standards.”

    Embarrassing doesn’t even begin to capture the situation…the idea that anyone this inarticulate and stupid is anywhere near the levers of power in any government or private entity is downright frightening.

    And people question DJT’s competence…

    Hell, I’ll state that even SlowJoe looks like a fucking Rhodes Scholar these days compared with Willis.

  21. leftwing says:

    chi thanks on the FA color yesterday

  22. Phoenix says:

    Trump’s lawyer Alina Habba says she ‘doesn’t have high hopes’ ahead of verdict in former president’s $370 million New York fraud trial

  23. 3b says:

    Mancin has ruled out running for President.

  24. leftwing says:

    Phoenix, as you know, when you are on trial by a bunch of monkeys in a banana republic you establish the record and play for the appeal….

    Funny, there was a segment on CNBC yesterday with a couple CRE guys who noted a few commercial building trades at about 60% off price per square foot. NYC denied any assessment change background being the tax base would be devastated if marked to market across the sector…so faking valuation for a financial advantage….not holding my breath for the DA to bring similar charges against the City of NY as DJT faces anytime soon….

  25. Phoenix says:


    you need money to play that game. Lucky for him. He has it.

  26. Hughesrep says:

    He doesn’t have it. He’s got a bunch of rubes willing to give it to him.

  27. No One says:

    I bet we’d be amazed by how stupid the top education bureaucrats are in Camden, Patterson, Newark, etc. Probably some under 100 IQs in there despite supposedly having advanced degrees. Chief diversity officers too.

  28. Very Stable Genius says:


    Trump Ordered to Pay $355 Million and Barred From New York Business
    The judge’s ruling in Donald J. Trump’s civil fraud case could cost him all his available cash.
    It also bars the former president from running a business in the state for three years.

  29. Very Stable Genius says:

    Mr. Trump’s second major courtroom loss in two months, following a January jury verdict in a defamation case brought by E. Jean Carroll, a writer whom he was found liable of sexually abusing. The jury penalized him $83.3 million.

    And the civil fraud ruling comes as Manhattan prosecutors are set to try Mr. Trump on criminal charges late next month.

    He is also contending with 57 other felony counts across three other criminal cases.

  30. Fast Eddie says:

    Trump ordered to pay $350 million. Who’s the victim? Doesn’t matter, we know the motive. It’s business as usual for the left. Extort money from those who make it, lead by the diversity hires in NYC, Atlanta, the VEEP and the one they call a WH press secretary. The clock is ticking though, my fair-weathered muppets, for seven years you’ve been trying to convict the guy. When he gets elected, be sure to look for a rock to hide under because vengeance will be swift.

  31. Very Stable Genius says:

    Who’s the victim when you get a speeding ticket?

    Fast Eddie says:
    February 16, 2024 at 3:32 pm

    Who’s the victim?

  32. leftwing says:

    DA criminalized normal business practices…most obviously the supposed ‘victims’ of this crime – the banks who lent him money – made zero claims under the supposed crime and didn’t even testify.

    Pure political prosecution.

    Open the gates. God I hope a couple county DAs in TX or FL start empaneling grand juries with some national Dems as targets for local, bright Red juries…

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Another market where million-dollar homes have become the norm: Beverlywood, California. The neighborhood just south of Beverly Hills has “blown up” over the last decade, says Marc Noah, a real-estate agent with Sotheby’s International Realty. “Ten to 15 years ago, you used to be able to buy a house in Beverlywood for $200,000 to $300,000. Today, you can’t buy just land on any of the prime streets for less than $3 million. That $3 million dirt buys you a 6,500-square-foot lot.”

  34. Bystander says:

    Get over it. There is nothing normal about Trump. This is cry-babying at its worst. He opens his mouth, cheats and gets caught. He is that stupid.

  35. leftwing says:

    ByS, you’re clueless about these business practices so don’t even bother.

  36. leftwing says:

    Lib, shorted ANF, covered in case she keeps running. Earnings 3/6.

  37. Phoenix says:

    All you people who embrace the police/justice system have never been hunted by them. Innocent or guilty doesn’t matter.

  38. Bystander says:

    Left, the DA criminalized this? You can’t be serious. DAs prosecute, the law is on the books. Judge applied it. Are you really claiming they wrote it up on fly to get Don? Hah, your bias is clear here. He got caught and rightfully so..like speeding. So what if everyone does it, you broke the law. But, but that guy was going faster than me..weak shite

  39. Bystander says:

    Judge Arthur Engoron excoriated Trump, saying the president’s credibility was “severely compromised,” that the frauds “shock the conscience” and that Trump and his co-defendants showed a “complete lack of contrition and remorse” that he said “borders on pathological.”

    Pathological…exactly what you have to be as a real estate mogul in NYC. JFC, I will plug it again, The Jinx on HBO. The Durst family not unlike Trumps. Robert was pathological liar and brilliant at covering up murders for years. Raised in NY. mogul empire and absolutely insane. So Trump like at being able to lie without a blink or ounce of remorse. Cold lack of empathy. This is type of personality that should be running country? F-k, you guys are nuts

  40. Fabius Maximus says:

    “not holding my breath for the DA to bring similar charges against the City of NY as DJT faces anytime soon”
    “God I hope a couple county DAs in TX or FL start empaneling grand juries with some national Dems as targets ”

    Hey Left, you seem to be doing a lot of heavy lifting trying to normalize this? Are there a few deals in your past that may be impacted by this ruling? Just wondering!

  41. Fabius Maximus says:

    This sorta sums it up:

    Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1

    Judge Engoron knocks Ivanka Trump: “She consistently denied recalling the contents of documentary evidence that confirmed that she actively participated in events, even after she was confronted with the evidence.”

    “The Court found her inconsistent recall, depending on whether she was questioned by OAG or the defense, suspect. In any event, what Ms. Trump cannot recall is memorialized in contemporaneous emails and documents; in the absence of her memory, the documents speak for themselves.”

  42. Fabius Maximus says:

    Lefy, You’re a Bernie Boy, you gettting behind this:

    I have never been a Bernie supporter or a fan and I have my issues with him and have never backed him but He just emailed me for the first time, that being said, this is an important message so I will share it. We all must put our differences aside and realize what the real threat to humanity is.

    Carl –

    Yes. These are crazy times.

    Trump will be the Republican nominee for president and is leading in most polls.

    Earlier this week, I held a hearing with major drug company CEOs that showed, as part of our dysfunctional healthcare system, that we pay by far the highest prices in the world for prescription drugs and that many Americans suffer and die because they cannot afford them.

    In Gaza, thousands of Palestinian children are starving as a result of the horrific policies of Netanyahu’s right-wing government while Congress wants to give Israel $10 billion more in military aid.

    Three blocks from the Capitol, in the richest country on earth, people sleep out in the streets because of a housing crisis which exists in almost every city in America.

    And on and on it goes.

    And, in the midst of all that and more, the American people and people throughout the world are seeing the devastating impact climate change is having on their communities and their families with their own eyes. And please understand that everything that we are seeing today will likely become worse, much worse, in the years to come.

    Just take a look around at what’s happening right now in the United States and around the world, and what scientists are saying.

    As you read this, Los Angeles just finished a week in which it received record amounts of rain. There have been hundreds of mudslides, 250,000+ homes and businesses are without power and the New York Times reports that the storm has “prompted millions of residents to stay home to avoid potential hazards.”

    In Chile, the country is experiencing its deadliest wildfires in over a century. More than a hundred people have died. Like most wildfires, they are likely started by humans, but it is a changing climate that allows them to spread with a ferocity not experienced before.

    According to NASA, 2023 was the hottest year on record, and also “millions of people around the world experienced extreme heat, and each month from June through December set a global record for the respective month. July was the hottest month ever recorded.”

    And if that wasn’t warning enough, scientists are now saying that the previous high category for storms — Category 5, a category once considered extreme — is not enough, and they want to add a new category: Category 6.

    In the past, a series of climate disasters and scientific pronouncements like these might have seemed like a silly plot in a bad movie about the apocalypse. Unfortunately, however, this is not a movie. This is reality. This is what we are experiencing right in front of us.

    And, again, this entire scenario will likely become worse, much, much worse if the United States, China and the rest of the world do not act together to break our dependence on fossil fuel.

    But let us take a step back.

    How in the world did we get to the point where the very habitability of our planet for future generations is at risk? How did we get to the point where the lives of billions of people is under enormous threat?

    You might think the answer is complicated, but the truth is that it is not.

    The truth is that the scientific community, for many decades, has made it crystal clear that climate change — and all the dangers it poses in terms of drought, floods, extreme weather disturbances, and disease — is the result of carbon emissions from the fossil fuel industry.

    As far back as the late 1950s, over 60 years ago, physicist Edward Teller and other scientists were warning executives in the fossil fuel industry that carbon emissions were “contaminating the atmosphere” and causing a “greenhouse effect” that could eventually lead to temperature increases “sufficient to melt the icecap and submerge New York.” That’s what they were saying 60 years ago!

    But it is not just the scientific community that knew …

    What we are also learning is that the fossil fuel companies knew as well.

    Recent news reported by The Guardian showed “The fossil fuel industry funded some of the world’s most foundational climate science as early as 1954.”

    The research, funded by energy companies at the time found “The possible consequences of a changing concentration of the CO2 in the atmosphere with reference to climate, rates of photosynthesis, and rates of equilibration with carbonate of the oceans may ultimately prove of considerable significance to civilization.”

    Let me repeat that — as early as 70 years ago, fossil fuel companies were beginning to understand the dangers of carbon emissions and that the impact would be of “Considerable significance to civilization … ”

    But there is more.

    Of course there is more.

    In 1975, Shell-backed research concluded that increasing atmospheric carbon concentrations could cause global temperature increases that would drive “major climatic climactic changes” and compared the dangers of burning fossil fuels to nuclear waste.

    Beginning in the late 1970s, Exxon — now ExxonMobil — conducted extensive research on climate change that predicted current rising temperatures “correctly and skillfully.”

    The fossil fuel companies knew.

    They knew they were causing global warming and therefore threatening the very existence of the planet.

    Yet, in pursuit of profit, fossil fuel executives not only refused to publicly acknowledge what they had learned but, year after year, lied about the existential threat that climate change posed for our planet.

    So what happened to the CEOs who betrayed the American people and the global community? Were they fired from their jobs? Were they condemned by pundits on cable television and the editorial boards of major newspapers? Were they prosecuted? Did they go to jail for their crimes?

    Nope. Not at all. Not one of them. These CEOs got rich.

    It’s obscene.

    So, where do we go from here?

    What do we do to make sure our planet is habitable for future generations?

    First – We must defeat Donald Trump. There is simply no way around just how important it is that we beat him this November and beat him badly. If Donald Trump is president again, there will be no progress on climate change.

    Second – At the same time, we must elect as many progressive candidates as we possibly can who will fight to pass a Green New Deal.

    Third – We must hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for its longstanding and carefully coordinated campaign to mislead consumers and discredit climate science in pursuit of massive profits.

    Fourth – We must demand action from the next Congress and during President Biden’s second term that transforms our energy systems away from fossil fuels and into energy efficiency and sustainable energy.

    We can do that in transportation, electricity generation, agriculture and making our buildings and appliances more energy efficient. And when we do that we not only combat climate change but we create a cleaner and healthier environment.

    Fifth – We must recognize that no individual nation can solve alone for its own people. It is a global crisis. It is an issue that requires the cooperation of every nation on earth. Whether we like it or not, we are all in this together.

    As the father of four and the grandfather of seven, I very much wish that I did not have to say this. But the most serious challenge facing our country and the entire world today far and away is the existential threat of climate change. That’s not just Bernie Sanders talking. That’s what the scientific community is telling us in a virtually unanimous voice.

    The bad news is that it was a set of human decisions that has gotten us to this point.

    The good news is that we can now make the decision to act aggressively in combating climate change and prevent irreparable damage to our country and the planet.

    We cannot go far enough or be too aggressive on this issue.

    We are custodians of the earth. All of us. And it would be a moral disgrace if we left to future generations a planet that was unhealthy, unsafe, and uninhabitable.

    In solidarity,

    Bernie Sanders

    To drive the point home, California is about to get slammed again, and probably another big storm behind that

    Climate Change is Real!!

    Pray for California!

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