From the WSJ:

America’s Office Fire Sale Has Barely Begun

If offices are in such hot water, where are all the forced sellers?

Office-building owners have been under pressure since the Covid-19 pandemic hollowed out their buildings in early 2020. According to data from real-estate consulting firm 

Colliers, the U.S. vacancy rate has risen from 11% in late 2019 to 17% today, higher than at any point in the 2008 global financial crisis.

But forced sales are still surprisingly rare. In 2023, only 3.5% of all office deals in the U.S. involved a distressed seller, based on analysis by MSCI Real Assets. The most recent numbers available show the share slipping to 2.7% in January. Distressed sales ramped up much faster in the GFC. 

A strong economy is helping to delay the day of reckoning, as most tenants are still paying the rent. Pressure is building slowly as leases expire: Many companies are reducing their space by 30% to 40% when their contracts end.

Lenders are also eager to kick the can down the road. They don’t want to force borrowers to sell buildings into a weak commercial real-estate market, which would lead to punishing losses. 

This might explain why debt maturities aren’t triggering the kind of distress that some property watchers expected. Of the $35.8 billion of office loans that came due in the commercial mortgage-backed securities market last year, only a quarter were paid off in full, according to data from real-estate analytics firm CRED iQ. Other loans were extended or sent to a special servicer—a third party that tries to find the best outcome for the debt, which may include modified payment terms or foreclosure. 

Office loans are more complex today than they were during the 2008 crisis, which is delaying distressed sales. As there are more lenders involved—especially on the big buildings owned by institutional investors—getting everyone to agree to foreclose or sell a property is difficult. 

Offices will be “the buying opportunity of our generation,” provided investors pick the right locations, says Mike McDonald, a senior managing director at real-estate firm 

JLL. Ultrawealthy families and local property developers are among the earliest investors gearing up to buy cheap buildings.

A flood of “For Sale” signs looks inevitable, but they are taking longer than expected to arrive. 

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

36 Responses to Commergeddon

  1. Hold my brer says:


  2. Fast Eddie says:

    Offices will be “the buying opportunity of our generation,” provided investors pick the right locations, says Mike McDonald, a senior managing director at real-estate firm.

    And then what? Bulldozed and replaced by more apartments and condos? Corporate parks in suburbia are going to draw mixed use facilities? I’m surprised commercial real estate hasn’t crashed and according to the above, a wave is coming. I’d like to hear this forum’s opinion on what the landscape will look like 10 to 15 years from now.

  3. leftwing says:

    “[State separation] a stupid conversation…is nonsense….There will be nothing but war if any state tries to leave…1850s civil war…”

    Seems to be a stupid idea then until it happens, lol?

    Again, I pointedly avoid using the term ‘secession’ for several reasons, and use ‘separation’ instead.

    Point being, the Confederates were the aggressors initially in the Civil War. There are a myriad of ways to separate and being the accused aggressor is likely less than optimal, especially these days.

    Not as if forts like Sumter are particularly relevant now…what will the Federal government do if, say, Texas becomes non-cooperative?

    There is no Federal police force. What are we going to have, the Army firing on Texas citizens? In response to the citizenry and body politic being non-compliant? There’s a graphic….

  4. Phoenix says:

    In order for Texas to pull it off, they would need a few more states to join them. Texas isn’t self supporting.
    Where it would be fun is if it did separate and, as it became desperate, joined up with China for help. I’m sure they would be willing.

  5. leftwing says:

    chi, sitting at 15! With Dartmouth (yay!) on Friday thanks to reseeding.

    You are a fan of two teams playing tonight barely known to exist….Omaha and Western Michigan. Want St Cloud and Colorado to lose. Most important may be St Cloud losing to Western Michigan…given how tight the other three are above us and that one of Omaha/Colorado has to lose as they play each other.

    Plus, OSU getting knocked out means we only need to capture 14th…and…bonus round, the current 14 (Mass) faces top ranked BC on Friday lol.

    Still banking the eight ball, but now it’s a cross-sides rather than a five cushion bank….

  6. BRT says:

    That Texas succession comment doesn’t make sense. If they left, they would have to raise an army. I imagine that Texas has 100,000’s of active duty military personnel. As would a California or a NY.

    Why is it the default mindset is gear up for war?

  7. Phoenix says:

    According to some articles I read, it appears the US government doesn’t like TikTok because it isn’t censored as some of the other platforms that are similar.

    Don’t want it around cause the American Oligarchs cannot control it.


  8. Phoenix says:

    The experiment called free trade seems to be having some sort of malfunction around the world.

    Guess its not so free after all.

  9. Phoenix says:

    Kushner not happy owning just NJ, now he is buying up Albania and Serbia.

    People there don’t seem to be very happy. Not that it is going to matter, what are they gonna do about it.

    Just cry and go back and tend to your goat Serbian.

  10. Phoenix says:

    Love this.❤❤❤❤❤

    “‘Hotel California’ should be the official song of the Biden administration,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former U.S. diplomat focused on the Middle East. “You can check out any time you want, but you can never leave.”

  11. Phoenix says:

    ❤ Candace. She is funny af.

    “He was married to his high school sweetheart — her name is Lilly Jay — and they had just had their first child. After being together for almost a decade. But that, of course, didn’t stop Ariana Grande,” Owens said during the Jan. 16 episode of her Candace Owens podcast.

    “I actually think she suffers from some random hoe disorder where she actually likes it when a man is taken… She’s turned on by it in a weird way,” Owens stated while blasting Grande. “She did not care that he [Slater] was ugly. She was just like, ‘I want to break up this family.’”

    To cement her point, Owens mentioned Grande’s latest single, “Yes, And?,” a tune she labeled as a celebration of the entertainer’s “homewrecking capabilities.”

    “Don’t comment on my body, do not reply/ Your business is yours and mine is mine/ Why do you care so much whose dck I ride, why?,” the commentator read when reciting a portion of the song’s lyrics.

  12. Libturd says:

    I am a huge supporter of free speech. Have no issue with X or Klan rallies, as long as no one gets physically hurt directly from it. Of course I have thick skin, which is becoming less common than ever since kids aren’t allowed to experience adversity anymore.

    I’m guessing the fear of Tik Tok is less about Chinese Government influence and data collection and more about loss of American ad revenue which Tik Tok is currently doubling every year and has now reached 20 billion. Like nearly every federal decision made today, it’s based on two things. Lobbyist dollars/influence and/or maintaining power. That, which is best for all Americans matters none. Though the issue will be framed up by a million other reasons.

  13. Libturd says:


    Why do you choose to watch that crap? It’s marketed to the shallowest of people.

  14. Phoenix says:

    America loves war. Hollywood loves war. Hollywood loves to perpetuate hate for China and Russia.

    WOLVERINES!!!! 🤣🤣🤣

    BRT says:
    March 17, 2024 at 10:16 am
    That Texas succession comment doesn’t make sense. If they left, they would have to raise an army. I imagine that Texas has 100,000’s of active duty military personnel. As would a California or a NY.

    Why is it the default mindset is gear up for war?

  15. LeftieIsHavingABigWetDream LackingRealWomanlyContact says:


    I don’t think you have to even get there. It’s all about the money, you should know better. You are having a wet dream. Reality is less likely Red leaving Blue.
    Suspension of all Federal payments including Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid in problematic zip code would do it.

    More likely is Red punishing Blue. Hell, I think MAGA/Trump if elected again will do it against New York and parts of Atlanta just to prove the point of anyone going against him.

    This is politics LBJ style, Trump being too self centered to actually do it right. Bryan Cranston at its best.

    Which means if MAGA Trump wins and tries to do all his stupid things that he plans, he’ll run into the same problem that they had during the pandemic. First thing Trump did when he got into office was to get rid of the Biological Hazards Task Force committee assigned to the National Security Council.

    So when the pandemic happened there were no vetted experts with the ready to go contacts/plan of action. This figure out the problem on the fly fell on Dr.Fauci’s lap and he did his best, with the execution of getting medical supplies left to a bunch of college interns instead of the original pros.

  16. Phoenix says:

    Libturd says:
    March 17, 2024 at 10:46 am

    Why do you choose to watch that crap? It’s marketed to the shallowest of people.

    Well, I am not 100% in agreement with Candace. She says things I don’t agree with, even things I find revolting.

    But then she says things I do agree with.

    Currently I am studying the opposite sex. Interesting creatures. Never cared much before, worked on houses, cars, computers, and later, people.

    Now I pay attention to the groups I work with. Who is friends with whom. Why was she evicted from group 2? How does this one work the manager so she doesn’t have to ever do anything? How does she get away with it?

    It’s amazing what men will do for a piece of azz. Or what they will stick it in. How little the standard has to be. The amount of kids that are unwanted or damaged because of alcohol consumption leading to a hookup.

    Repubs better really rethink eliminating birth control, abortions, or the Morning after pill. Humans are not evolved enough from Silverbacks just yet.

  17. Phoenix says:

    Better keep Biden as President. They drive him around. Imagine this old goat with a set of car keys in his hands?

    “The big news this week is, two candidates clinched their parties’ nomination for president. One candidate is too old, mentally unfit to be president,” Biden said. “And the other is me.”

  18. Libturd says:

    Good explanation.

    My main issue with women is how they behave behind the wheel. And it’s not all of them. But it sure is a lot of them. I often say to Gator, men are intentionally reckless drivers, but women are unintentionally reckless drivers.

    At 6:30am this morning, driving my son to EWR for his trip back to UF now that Spring Break is over. The roads are completely empty. On 78, she completely cuts me off going from the left lane two lanes over to get off a Hillside exit. I was in the middle lane driving maybe 65 as I was in no rush. In order to make the exit, she cuts in front of me (keep in mind, she was probably driving 75 and had just passed me on my left) then into the right lane where she cuts someone else off, who swings into my lane to avoid hitting her and nearly rear ends me. There couldn’t have been more than four cars on that entire mile of highway. She couldn’t slow down and pull off behind us. Or do what a sane person would do and just drive to the next exit and turn around. She nearly smashed both of us. I look as she is driving off the exit and she is nearly pinned against the steering wheel. I see women drive with the seat as far forward as is possible all of the time. What is the cause of this? Now if it was a male, he would have made that move on purpose, to save 2 seconds from his drive. But being that it was a female, I don’t think she even realized she out all of our lives in grave danger.

    My other pet peeve of female drivers is their need to look at Social Media at every red light signal. It’s so bad, at certain intersections, especially the ones with the longest lights, maybe half the number of intended cars actually make it through. God forbid you are at a green left turn only arrow, you could have to wait three cycles before she puts the fun down and you get to make your turn.

  19. Libturd says:

    Men just look at their phones the entire time they are driving. Heck, I saw a dude shaving once on the turnpike. With a blade. Not an electric.

  20. leftwing says:

    “She couldn’t slow down and pull off behind us…My other pet peeve of female drivers is their need to look at Social Media at every red light signal. It’s so bad, at certain intersections, especially the ones with the longest lights, maybe half the number of intended cars actually make it through. ”

    Pure unadulterated oblivious self centeredness.

    Your area breeds it, as birthright.

  21. Phoenix says:

    Watch how easy she lies.

    The older I get, the more I realize how manipulative the opposite sex is, and how men make it so easy for them to get away with things just for a possible BJ.

    If it weren’t for a body camera, what would have happened here just a few short years ago? I’ll tell ‘ya, a hummer and a ticket for a windshield obstruction.

  22. Phoenix says:

    “It’s not my pipe, I promise you.”


    He’s just a friend.


  23. Phoenix says:


    Your driver.

    Maybe like this one, she smoked hours ago. Doesn’t do heroin. Only Cocaine and Benzos.

    But hasn’t done a benzo in a while.

    Or still hung over from last night. Or broke up with her boyfriend and is just angry.

    Or just a BMW/ Mercedes driver that thinks she is special.

  24. Phoenix says:

    +3 points for calling it a legal system and not a justice system.

    “America’s squatting crisis is at boiling point. Each week, shocking tales emerge of helpless families booted out of their homes by scrounging – and sometimes armed – crooks. Failed by the legal system, desperate landlords are turning to vigilantes who pledge to confront the squatters head on. But experts are warning their tactics could spark bloody confrontations. Are things about to get ugly?”

  25. Phoenix says:

    This one is pure Jersey.. Smack deep in the heart of it. This is all around you, folks.

  26. Brt says:


    I couldnt understand how the Italian mob wasn’t getting involved. This was right up their alley. Coworker of mine had just inherited a small place in Ft Lauderdale
    . When they went there, a squatter had already been there 6 mo. Attorney advised them on to how to fool the guy into leaving. Apparently he’s well versed in this. They tricked him and changed the locks. Neighborhood was so thankful that they now call the cops any time the guy appears anywhere and they respond immediately.

  27. Chicago says:

    Chicago says:
    March 16, 2024 at 9:32 pm
    Left: The rent has been paid.

  28. Chicago says:

    Letters to the Editor WSJ (hilarious Edition):
    You don’t go from Jackson Browne’s “Running on Empty” to Bruce Springsteen’s “Born to Run” overnight without a visit from Mötley Crüe’s “Dr. Feelgood.”

  29. leftwing says:

    “Left: The rent has been paid.”

    Not getting it….?

  30. chicagofinance says:

    Heart Warming For the Holidays (Phoenix Edition):

    By Patric Gagne
    March 14, 2024 7:00
    Whenever I ask my mother if she remembers the time in second grade when I stabbed a kid in the head with a pencil, her answer is the same: “Vaguely.”

    And I believe her. So much about my early childhood is vague. Some things I remember with absolute clarity. Like the smell of the trees at Redwood National Park and our house on the hill near downtown San Francisco. God, I loved that house. Other things aren’t so clear, like the first time I sneaked into my neighbor’s house when they weren’t home.

    I started stealing before I could talk. At least, I think I did. By the time I was six or seven I had an entire box full of things I’d stolen in my closet. Somewhere in the archives of People magazine there is a photo of Ringo Starr holding me as a toddler. We’re standing in his backyard—not far from Los Angeles, where my father was an executive in the music business—and I am literally stealing the glasses off his face. I was not the first child to ever play with a grown-up’s glasses. But based on the spectacles currently perched on my bookshelf, I’m pretty sure I was the only one to swipe a pair from a Beatle.

    To be clear: I wasn’t a kleptomaniac. A kleptomaniac is a person with a persistent and irresistible urge to take things that don’t belong to them. I suffered from a different type of urge, a compulsion brought about by the discomfort of apathy, the nearly indescribable absence of common social emotions like shame and empathy.

    I didn’t understand any of this back then. All I knew was that I didn’t feel things the way other kids did. I didn’t feel guilt when I lied. I didn’t feel compassion when classmates got hurt on the playground. For the most part, I felt nothing, and I didn’t like the way that “nothing” felt. So I did things to replace the nothingness with…something.

    This impulse felt like an unrelenting pressure that expanded to permeate my entire self. The longer I tried to ignore it, the worse it got. My muscles would tense, my stomach would knot. Tighter. Tighter. It was claustrophobic, like being trapped inside my brain. Trapped inside a void.

    Stealing wasn’t something I necessarily wanted to do. It just happened to be the easiest way to stop the tension. The first time I made this connection was in first grade, sitting behind a girl named Clancy. The pressure had been building for days. Without knowing exactly why, I was overcome with frustration and had the urge to do something violent.

    I wanted to stand up and flip over my desk. I imagined running to the heavy steel door that opened to the playground and slamming my fingers in its hinges. For a minute I thought I might actually do it. But then I saw Clancy’s barrette. She had two in her hair, pink bows on either side. The one on the left had slipped down. Take it, my thoughts commanded, and you’ll feel better.

    I liked Clancy and I didn’t want to steal from her. But I wanted my brain to stop pulsing, and some part of me knew it would help. So, carefully, I reached forward and unclipped the bow. Once it was in my hand, I felt better, as if some air had been released from an overinflated balloon. I didn’t know why, but I didn’t care. I’d found a solution. It was a relief.

    These early acts of deviance are encoded in my mind like GPS coordinates plotting a course toward awareness. Even now, I can recall where I got most of the things that didn’t belong to me as a child. But I can’t explain the locket with the “L” inscribed on it.

    “Patric, you absolutely must tell me where you got this,” my mother said the day she found it in my room. We were standing next to my bed. One of the pillow shams was crooked against the headboard and I was consumed with the urge to straighten it. “Look at me,” she said, grabbing my shoulders. “Somewhere out there a person is missing this locket. They are missing it right now and they’re so sad they can’t find it. Think about how sad that person must be.”

    I shut my eyes and tried to imagine what the locket owner was feeling, but I couldn’t. I felt nothing. When I opened my eyes and looked into hers, I knew my mother could tell.

    “Sweetheart, listen to me,” she said, kneeling. “Taking something that doesn’t belong to you is stealing. And stealing is very, very bad.”

    Again, nothing.

    Mom paused, not sure what to do next. She took a deep breath and asked, “Have you done this before?”

    I nodded and pointed to the closet. Together we went through the box. I explained what everything was and where it had come from. Once the box was empty, she stood and said we were going to return every item to its rightful owner, which was fine with me. I didn’t fear consequences and I didn’t suffer remorse, two more things I’d already figured out weren’t “normal.” Returning the stuff actually served my purpose. The box was full, and emptying it would give me a fresh space to store things I had yet to steal.

    “Why did you take these things?” Mom asked me.

    I thought of the pressure in my head and the sense that I needed to do bad things sometimes. “I don’t know,” I said.

    “Well… Are you sorry?” she asked.

    “Yes,” I said. I was sorry. But I was sorry I had to steal to stop fantasizing about violence, not because I had hurt anyone.

    Empathy, like remorse, never came naturally to me. I was raised in the Baptist church. I knew we were supposed to feel bad about committing sins. My teachers talked about “honor systems” and something called “shame,” which I understood intellectually, but it wasn’t something I felt. My inability to grasp core emotional skills made the process of making and keeping friends somewhat of a challenge. It wasn’t that I was mean or anything. I was simply different.

    Now that I’m an adult, I can tell you why I behaved this way. I can point to research examining the relationship between anxiety and apathy, and how stress associated with inner conflict is believed to subconsciously compel people to behave destructively. I believe that my urge to act out was most likely my brain’s way of trying to jolt itself into some semblance of “normal.” But none of this information was easy to find. I had to hunt for it. I am still hunting.

    For more than a century, society has deemed sociopathy untreatable and unredeemable. The afflicted have been maligned and shunned by mental health professionals who either don’t understand or choose to ignore the fact that sociopathy—like many personality disorders—exists on a spectrum.

    After years of study, intensive therapy and earning a Ph.D. in psychology, I can say that sociopaths aren’t “bad” or “evil” or “crazy.” We simply have a harder time with feelings. We act out to fill a void. When I understood this about myself, I was able to control it.

    It is a tragic misconception that all sociopaths are doomed to hopeless, loveless lives. The truth is that I share a personality type with millions of others, many of whom have good jobs, close-knit families and real friends. We represent a truth that’s hard to believe: There’s nothing inherently immoral about having limited access to emotion. I offer my story because I know I’m not alone.

    Patric Gagne is a writer, former therapist and advocate for people suffering from sociopathic, psychopathic and antisocial personality disorders. This essay is adapted from her book, “Sociopath: A Memoir,” which will be published April 2 by Simon & Schuster.

  31. chicagofinance says:

    Chicago says:
    March 16, 2024 at 1:45 am

  32. chicagofinance says:

    leftwing says:
    March 17, 2024 at 3:38 pm
    “Left: The rent has been paid.”

    Not getting it….?

    leftwing says:
    March 11, 2024 at 11:27 am
    “I thought they were the clearly the best in the ECAC in 2024, so beating QPAC isn’t crazy.”

    Agree…but have to get through Crimson first…not that they’re good but they do live rent-free in our heads…

  33. OC1 says:

    re tik-tok:

    If China wants a Chinese owned media company to operate freely in the US, they should allow US companies (Facebook, Youtube, etc) to operate freely in China.

    If they are not willing to do that, then bye-bye tik-tok!

  34. BRT says:

    I’ve met more than my fair share of sociopaths. I’m pretty good at IDing them very quickly at this point. Most of them try to do something on the side to prove to themselves they are a good person. Maybe it’s for show as to deflect the truth. But in the meantime, they still continue on their merry way to try to ruin other’s lives.

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