Bubble buyers first to bail

From Fortune:

Housing market data suggests the most optimistic buyers during the pandemic are more likely to stop paying their mortgages

Traditional methods for forecasting housing prices and broader economic indicators are proving insufficient. In our recent research, we explored an overlooked aspect of home buying: the significance of buyers’ expectations. We found that the anticipations of mortgage borrowers regarding future housing prices are crucial for understanding the health of the economy.

There’s a consensus that the expectations about future increases in housing prices and interest rates significantly influence housing market dynamics. The logic is straightforward: If individuals believe the value of homes will rise, they are more inclined to take on more debt. This effect is amplified in the housing market because you cannot bet against market downturns, making the positive outlooks of buyers more influential. Previous studies have indicated that this optimism can drive rapid increases in housing prices, creating “bubbles.” These bubbles often lead to inflated house prices, fueled by speculation.

What occurs, however, when housing prices remain elevated but expectations begin to decline?

Our findings indicate that expectations are critical in the decision-making processes of mortgage borrowers. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a period when confidence in future housing price increases waned, despite actual prices still rising.

We observed that borrowers who were initially the most optimistic about price increases were significantly more likely to request mortgage forbearance–a pause or reduction in payments–by about 50% more than the broader mortgage-borrowing population (6% versus 4% in our study) during this episode. This underscores the significant impact of borrower expectations on the housing market and economic stability.

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36 Responses to Bubble buyers first to bail

  1. Fast Eddie says:

    What occurs, however, when housing prices remain elevated but expectations begin to decline?

    It means your feelings have no bearing on who shows up with the loot. Sacrifice a chicken, throw salt over your shoulder, hop on one leg and rub your noggin… ain’t gonna make a shred of difference; they’re not accepting your offer. Money talks and you know the rest.

  2. 3b says:

    It’s not surprising the biggest cheerleaders would be the first to default.

  3. Chicago says:

    Left: The approach seemed methodical and conservative to me. Good win, but by the book.

  4. Chicago says:

    Given where they sit, you think they end up in BU’s bracket? If so, I guess that at least gives them a shot of coming out of the regional because of the Frozen Apple. Of course that means shit now.

  5. leftwing says:

    Don’t know chi, just hope they stay East Coast….haven’t looked at permutations of seeding re: avoiding 1st round conference matchups, etc.

    Four HEA and four Big Ten teams make up half the field though, with UMass hosting one site so can’t move them…not going to send one of the Boston teams to the Midwest….running out of rope there?

    Tonight at 630p I think is the selection/seeding. Bummer, I’ll be on a date. She may have to understand. If not, eh, not for me.

    The girl that is, not the hockey :)

  6. Libturd says:

    Just be careful before doing any seeding of your own.

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    Just be careful before doing any seeding of your own.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlTb0o2XAyg

  8. Phoenix says:

    A billionaire heiress took revenge on locals who questioned her plans for their sleepy Lake Superior neighborhood by rolling back plans to modernize their community.

    Kathy Cargill, the wife of James R. Cargill II, the patriarch of the fourth-richest family in the US, has sparked controversy among residents in Duluth, Minnesota after snapping up a number of homes in the area.

    Cargill has been accused of bulldozing them while refusing to reveal her plans – and not without offending locals, as she branded the homes ‘pieces of cr**’ to a local reporter.

    But after residents sounded the alarm and the new mayor demanded Cargill revealed her intentions, she fired back by calling off plans to construct a sports complex and beautify the area.

    ‘I think an expression that we all know—don’t pee in your Cheerios—well, (the mayor) kind of peed in his Cheerios right there, and definitely I’m not going to do anything to benefit that community,’ she told the Wall Street Journal.

    ‘The good plans that I have down there for beautifying, updating and fixing up Park Point park or putting up that sports court, forget it. There’s another community out there with more welcoming people than that small-minded community.’

  9. Phoenix says:

    Spiteful Skank with lots of money. Your neighbors sold you out.

  10. Phoenix says:

    Imagine this lady becoming president. Not all sugar and spice.

    She reportedly claimed she was still getting calls from locals looking to cash in on their homes, and hasn’t ruled out more purchases.

    But she told the community they can ‘forget’ a cash injection for a sports complex or anything of that nature, all while insisting she intends to keep a vacation home she bought in the area.

    ‘We’re going to make it even more private than it is, and we’re still going to go enjoy it,’ she told the Wall Street Journal.

    ‘Those people aren’t running me out. They can posture themselves all they want, but I’m not going anywhere.’

  11. leftwing says:

    “Just be careful before doing any seeding of your own.”

    LOL, good one. Not on the date agenda for tonight.

  12. Phoenix says:

    LW,
    You should go out with Lauren Boebert. I hear she is a good time. Hehe.

  13. leftwing says:

    I’ll do crazy. Once, then run. And never bring them home or give out personal details…

  14. 3b says:

    NVIDIA announced AI Nurses, cost 9 dollars an hour.

  15. Libturd says:

    Speaking of crazy. If you haven’t seen this, it’s excellent.

    https://youtu.be/ZhVSfIf-Kng?si=K7AJkdkeu1XerOPO

  16. leftwing says:

    LOL, yeah got it. Make sure your boy sees it….

  17. leftwing says:

    And I owe some unknown taxi driver in NYC *a lot* for correctly identifying a 2-3 crazy and 9 hot for me on the way home at dawn coming from some no-name steel doored after hours club in Midtown West decades ago….not kidding, nearly unfortunately lol.

  18. Phoenix says:

    Great. Gets rid of those lazy WFH slouches that think they are above smelling crotch rot.
    😁
    3b says:
    March 24, 2024 at 11:22 am
    NVIDIA announced AI Nurses, cost 9 dollars an hour.

  19. Phoenix says:

    LW,

    Lauren may be crazy, but she is a she, and has a hot bod.

  20. Phoenix says:

    Those AI nurses are great. You can pick the gender you want, so you won’t feel “uncomfortable.” Are you religious, pick one from your chosen religion- no longer discriminated against in your “mind.” U racist? Want a particular color, you will have plenty of choices so you won’t feel someone is treating you differently due to your skin color. U prefer a Filipino, you got it.

    Pick a color, an accent, a religion. Gonna be fun to sue one as well with your virtual lawyer.

    The future is here. Hehe.

    Just got my package from TEMU. All as expected. Great digital voltmeter for almost nothing. Tested against my expensive Fluke, they match up. Chinese kick azz.

  21. Lax says:

    Bruuuuuce rocked Vegas – the man was in top form —

  22. Lax says:

    1:02 butter face to the f’in max

  23. NJCoast says:

    For todays fun reading google Shen Yun. Thinking of going to see the Chinese dancers/acrobats that you see so many commercial for? Turns out they’re a cult religion, expelled from China and reside on compound in Deerpark NY. The Falun Gong religion is headed by Li Hongzhi and are also behind the Epoch Media Group which is known for The Epoch Times newspaper. Among the dancing and acrobatics is religious messages, they also try to convert everybody they can backstage. Fun times.

  24. Phoenix says:

    Oooohh. I’m scared.

    Let ’em try ’em convert me.

    I just might convert ’em.

    Hehe.

    NJCoast says:
    March 24, 2024 at 1:51 pm
    For todays fun reading google Shen Yun. Thinking of going to see the Chinese dancers/acrobats that you see so many commercial for? Turns out they’re a cult religion, expelled from China and reside on compound in Deerpark NY. The Falun Gong religion is headed by Li Hongzhi and are also behind the Epoch Media Group which is known for The Epoch Times newspaper. Among the dancing and acrobatics is religious messages, they also try to convert everybody they can backstage. Fun times.

  25. Phoenix says:

    Give it time, even your beloved will turn to melted butter face given enough time.

    Lax says:
    March 24, 2024 at 1:33 pm
    1:02 butter face to the f’in max

  26. Hold my beer says:

    Shen yun. I’d rather go see a k pop group. Dancing is better and they just want my money.

  27. Hold my beer says:

    Yujin beats Lauren. No contest .

  28. Phoenix says:

    HMB,

    New bias?

    Yeah, she is hot. In the I am video, smoking.

  29. Fabius Maximus says:

    New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy is suspending Senate campaign

    Cant wait to see whats going to drop here.

  30. grim says:

    Whatever it is, clearly she is guilty

  31. Hold my beer says:

    Phoenix

    She’s My 4th gen bias

  32. Phoenix says:

    Pegasus got dirt on Murphy.

    My guess.

  33. Hughesrep says:

    Menendez has the dirt. His announcement that he may run as an independent was the warning shot.

  34. Chicago says:

    Left: What a great draw! Too bad it’s Springfield. I ain’t going to road trip up there.

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