From the Star Ledger:
Decaying former Playboy Club has been sold, N.J. mayor says
The empty former Playboy Club — a longtime subject of fascination in northwestern New Jersey — has been sold, according to a local mayor.
Vernon Mayor Anthony Rossi posted an announcement about the sale on his Facebook page earlier this month and said he met with the new owner. However, no official announcement had been made about the property as of Thursday and it is unclear if a deal was finalized.
Rossi did not identify the new owner of the sprawling property in Vernon in Sussex County, which was last known as the Legends Resort & Country Club after the Playboy Club exited in the early 1980s.
“I am happy to announce that LEGENDS HAS SOLD!” Rossi, who took office in January, wrote on Facebook in a March 14 post.
“I met with the new owner in my office to discuss his plans. He has requested that we jointly work on a press release together outlining his plans, which will be released in the next few weeks,” the mayor added.
Rossi said Thursday he was unsure what was happening with a possible deal and had not been given any additional information about whether a sale would be announced soon.
The property’s owner, Metairie Corporation, has not announced a sale. The company’s attorney, Thomas Molica, did not respond Thursday to a request to comment.
The one and only
Firts
Land for more valuable for luxury development
“I am happy to announce that LEGENDS HAS SOLD!” Rossi, who took office in January, wrote on Facebook in a March 14 post.
Don’t go in there with a black light.
When the S&P 500 gains more than 8% for the first quarter, it has finished higher for the rest of the year 94% of the time, with an average gain of 9.7% for the final three quarters.
Most of you laughed when I said Nasdaq 6K. I was dead serious. Let’s see what happens.
In other news, My Pillow guy danced with the Devil and can no longer afford rent on his warehouse.
How Trump never bought that place is beyond me.
All you have to bring ….. is your love of every thing.
I am pretty sure Great Gorge golf is not part of that deal, it was sold off in 2006.
Without the golf course it is really a dilapidated old condo/hotel. It was timeshares and sanction 8 rentals for many years. I am sure whomever owned those units got screwed in bankruptcy. Perhaps it will become on of those senior housing places assisted care etc. They are popping up everywhere to bilk Medicare and inheritances.
https://thegreatgorge.com/about/
“All you have to bring ….. is your love of every thing.”
Some times I drive Gator crazy singing that jingle over and over again. I sprinkle in some Chunk, chunk chicken and Safelight repair, Safelight replace and of course, 800-588-2300, Empire!
PCE ticks higher, Mr. Powell will speak later.
I’m the sole dissenting voice for one hike this year.
I don’t do drugs at all. But sometimes I have to wonder what I am missing.
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 29, 2024 at 12:33 am
Honestly, this just might be the best economic environment and opportunity in human history
I just don’t understand why everyone is waiting on cuts, talk about conditioning! It’s all everyone is talking about, they’re obsessed with this return to ZIRP. It’s maddening.
Why isn’t the narrative, oh we’re doing great at these very mildly restrictive rates, things are good, look at us go.
Boomer: The everything is great mantra is predicated on there will be rate cuts this year.
re: PCE ticks higher. It’s called Personal Income and Outlays report……$145.5 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in February reflected an increase of $111.8 billion in spending for services and a $33.7 billion increase in spending for goods.
I spent $50 on four McChicken meals last weekend at a soccer tournament, there were no other options nearby and it was late.
I also got a notice my homeowners insurance filed for 25% increase with the state.
Party on inflation.
“Why isn’t the narrative, oh we’re doing great at these very mildly restrictive rates, things are good, look at us go.”
Exactly.
Mildly restrictive? The narrative is it will be settling below 3% in a few years again. Low mortgages but also low rates for Treasury bills and bonds.
Again it’s Fed and government policy at the end of the day and well net interest payments for US Government debt is set to cross the $1 trillion per year mark in a year and a half from now. Two-thirds of the debt service increase is resulting from now higher rates.
There are no deal-making moderates in Congress anymore who care about fiscal deficits, they have gotten away with kicking the can for decades, and think the cows will never come home.
There was a woman on FOX this morning who owns a restaurant in the Los Angeles area that had to release a few workers and doesn’t know if she can survive with the $20 per hour minimum wage. They’ve been in business since 1978, survived the Covid crisis but says this may be the end. A friend of hers owns 20 McDonalds and is closing five to consolidate. Another friend is trying to sell their business due to expenses/regulations, etc. and looking for a job at the same time.
The woman said a burger, fries and soda is now around $25.
I was at my office in Hoboken this past Wednesday… got a turkey and swiss on a bagel, nothing else… cost was $10.
The woman said Newsom is killing business and doesn’t know what’s the end game. She said taxpayers are also on the hook to pay the unemployment when scores of workers are let go. Good times.
In further news, the democrats held an “Academy Awards, star-studded” type gala in Manhattan last night as Stephen Colbert f1ngered himself while hosting the elitist event. For $100,000, you got to take pictures with Obammy, the Vegetable and Slick Billy while shemal3s suck3d each other off in the background. Meanwhile, Trump attended a funeral on Long Island for a slain cop at the hands of a v1olent, repeat offender with 21 counts on his rap sheet including gun charges and attempted murd3r. How was this guy even on the street?
Rate cuts are not what is driving the market. Relentless government spending and the war machine. Add in hype of new technology in AI and life science. Also the wealth effect of non stock/bond asset inflation.
Dont dismiss. Although these trends can be ephemeral, they are potent.
3b says:
March 29, 2024 at 9:55 am
Boomer: The everything is great mantra is predicated on there will be rate cuts this year.
The crazy thing is the Treasury funding the debt short. Not only is the government failing to lock in lower long term rates, it is paying through the nose on the front of the curve. Spectacular waste of money.
That said, let’s keep an eye to tax receipts. Should be cup runneth over
Chgo: And rate cuts will turbo charge all of that.
Powell says todays PCE release was in line with expectations, no surprises. Well, there you go!
“According to Business Insider article , Momunes are a growing thing. Single Moms with kids move in together with their kids. The Moms help each other run the household etc, and the kids entertain each other.”
Can I apply for pool boy?
“The crazy thing is the Treasury funding the debt short. Not only is the government failing to lock in lower long term rates, it is paying through the nose on the front of the curve. Spectacular waste of money.”
Solid post chi…
And, yes, bit of a Cinderella season developing…both of tomorrow night’s games will be very good…Denver went to two OTs with Mass, we tied them in Dec….
Only if you wear 5″ shorts.
Everyone screamed buy duration, buy duration a while back and I just didn’t see it. Am fine with rolling over four week paper as cash equivalent.
Yeah, Bill Gross has a lot of stupid looking charts on his latest YouTube clips which show stratospheric end of times debt payment levels in just seven years.
“Before you ever direct your anger at schools for your taxes, send it towards county govt…”
So IDK how long ago but all the discussion here was the evil of home rule and how NJ would be nirvana again if we could only consolidate everything at the county level…I swear you guys are actually schizo….
“When the S&P 500 gains more than 8% for the first quarter, it has finished higher for the rest of the year 94% of the time, with an average gain of 9.7% for the final three quarters.”
When I was asking for ideas on here last November I posted a good graphical piece on historical market behavior following a year of solid returns and how it provided clarity of direction…forget whether it was Bilello or Bespoke, but clear as day coming off a year like 2023 indicated strong likelihood of not just follow through but above average returns again….
I put on 17 positions Lib mostly leveraged through options or at least cost-reduced…usually when markets have a strong year my return over market compresses, I make most of my really outsized returns in flat, falling, or high volatility markets…but this quarter is just fucking crazy. I may just fold up my tent and call it a year.
Not trying to time the market by any means but like when I was diddling myself around SPX 4000 if this quarter is my annual return, why the fuck not? Do I really need to try to capture the next 5-10% up, if it exists? For how much work and downside risk over the next nine months? Don’t know.
“Only if you wear 5″ shorts.”
LOL may be way TMI but they are the only ones I own, seriously.
Younger chickies love solid thighs…
No BS built in liners either…the boys need to feel free.
4″ swimsuits are making a comeback but I’ve passed….don’t want to feel like a porno or attract too much same sex attention LOL.
Left: As the pool boy you will of course have to provide other services. You may have to service both Moms, or one will get jealous. However, that may cause other problems as one Mom might not be ok with that arrangement. I see problems with it.
Was catching up on my WSJ’s that I missed…… from Monday….. read my mind….
The $27 Trillion Treasury Market Is Only Getting Bigger
More debt, different buyers and increased regulation pose challenges
By Eric WallersteinFollow
March 24, 2024 5:30 am ET
The world’s largest, most-important financial market is growing by leaps and bounds. On Wall Street, that is making people nervous.
Annual issuance of U.S. Treasurys has exploded, nearly doubling since the pandemic began. The government sold a record $23 trillion worth in 2023. And few think the spree is going to slow soon, given the widespread expectation that government spending will continue to rise regardless of who wins November’s elections.
Rapid growth in markets from tech stocks to mortgage bonds has ended badly in the past. Treasurys are considered the safest and easiest-to-trade securities on Wall Street, and many worry that any instability there could rapidly spread.
The market’s growth isn’t the only thing troubling investors: Some are also concerned about new rules that are changing the way the trading works. That could help alleviate strains but also create unforeseen consequences, such as the cash shortages in 2019 and 2020 that snarled trading and boosted interest rates.
“None of these regulations solves the mounting pile of Treasury debt,” said Steven Kelly, associate director of research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability.
When the government doesn’t take in enough from taxes to fund its spending, the Treasury Department issues bonds to fill the gap. The agency raised a net $2.4 trillion last year to finance the deficit, taking into account what it had to sell to repay holders of maturing debt.
The Treasury market has grown more than 60% to $27 trillion since the end of 2019. It is roughly sixfold larger than before the 2008-09 financial crisis.
“Running a nearly $2 trillion deficit during a peacetime economic expansion—that’s a lot of bonds for the market to absorb,” said Stephen Miran, an adjunct fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute and a former Treasury Department senior adviser who assisted with the Covid-19 response.
The Congressional Budget Office anticipates government spending that continues to climb in the coming years, with an aging population raising the cost of programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Rising interest costs could also boost issuance.
Mounting bond sales sparked market turmoil last fall, prompting the Treasury to shift toward selling more short-term debt. The amount of bills—those with maturities of one year or shorter—has risen to 22.4% of debt outstanding, above the recommended 20% limit set by the borrowing committee that advises the government.
Since then, demand has been more than adequate. Investors still aren’t requiring extra compensation to hold longer-term Treasurys. The so-called term premium is actually negative.
One reason demand for Treasurys remains solid: fewer alternatives. Many companies issued long-term bonds when the pandemic sent rates near zero, then slowed borrowing when the Fed started raising them. The market for mortgage-backed securities is nearly frozen, with few Americans moving in the most expensive housing market in decades.
Different buyers
Banks have pared their buying of Treasurys for years, constrained by postcrisis regulations that are poised to get even more restrictive. Hedge funds, money-market funds and foreign investors are now America’s primary financiers.
Money-market funds are enjoying record inflows and scooping up short-term Treasurys in bulk. But they are mandated to only invest in bills.
Hedge funds—lumped in with households in Fed data—have mostly filled the gap left by the central bank, which is paring its holdings of bonds accumulated in its efforts to prop up the economy. But at least one popular trade involving Treasurys and Treasury futures has regulators on edge. New rules from the Securities and Exchange Commission are likely to reduce its profitability—the hedge-fund industry is suing, and funds are already pulling back.
What about overseas?
While foreign investors have steadily bought Treasurys, a strong dollar and growing supply of high-quality bonds elsewhere could slow purchases. Foreign holdings have declined below one-quarter of outstanding debt, after sitting at more than one-third in 2015.
Dollar strength hasn’t done much to deter Japanese investors. With rates below zero at home for years, they have hunted for yield overseas, recently increasing their Treasury holdings to $1.2 trillion. Japan surpassed China as America’s largest foreign creditor in 2019.
The Bank of Japan this past week raised rates out of negative territory and nixed its cap on long-term bond yields. Analysts don’t expect Japan’s central bank to let yields drift too high, though, preventing major outflows from Treasurys.
Tighter regulations
Disruptions in markets tied to government debt exacerbated both Lehman Brothers’ collapse and the March 2020 market panic. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this past week the central bank wanted to avoid interventions such as the one required by the 2019 surge in overnight rates.
“Fed policymakers want to avoid another episode like 2019—it’s seared in their brains,” said Nate Wuerffel, head of market structure at BNY Mellon.
Even a one-day surge in funding costs can cause an institution to miss payments or be short on cash, which could lead to defaults, he said.
The Fed set up backstops during the Covid-19 pandemic to absorb potential market stress. But impending bank regulations could make capital scarcer among lenders. And the SEC is erecting new safeguards.
Those include forcing more trades tied to Treasurys through a central clearinghouse. Inserting a middleman between the trillions of dollars changing hands daily would help banks offset regulatory burdens. Doing so should also mitigate cybersecurity concerns, after the November hack of a Chinese bank rattled short-term markets. Higher trading costs could discourage hedge funds from continuing to buy U.S. debt, however, prompting their lawsuit.
Josh Frost, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial markets, said regulators aim to improve both daily conditions and resilience. “We want to minimize the impact on markets when a shock comes,” he said.
Going forward
Some say there is a workaround to Treasury market concerns.
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association trade group recently asked the Fed to revive a pandemic-era policy. It would allow banks to exclude Treasurys and deposits held at the central bank from a regulatory buffer that forces banks to hold capital as a percentage of loans and other assets. That would allow banks to finance more U.S. debt and open up their balance sheets when markets become strained.
Some worry that if the mounting pile of debt isn’t addressed, investors will be left with permanently higher bond yields. The prospect of inflation—from wars, expansionary fiscal policy, deglobalization and immigration—points to rates staying higher than before the pandemic.
“If you’re a long-term bond investor, the single most important question you need to ask is how long interest rates will remain elevated,” said Miran.
OH YEAH….. THIS IS A GOOD IDEA….. HAND HEROIN TO A RECOVERED ADDICT
Going forward
Some say there is a workaround to Treasury market concerns.
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association trade group recently asked the Fed to revive a pandemic-era policy. It would allow banks to exclude Treasurys and deposits held at the central bank from a regulatory buffer that forces banks to hold capital as a percentage of loans and other assets. That would allow banks to finance more U.S. debt and open up their balance sheets when markets become strained.
I have slowly been selling off some of my Nasdaq heavy sector and index ETFs thinking AI valuations, especially in Nvidia, but also in the other magnificent seven are getting ahead of themselves. I don’t have much dry powder and would like to build some up in case of a pullback, which I really don’t expect, but you never know. So what to put it into? Well, I moved 2/3rds of the QQQ that I owned into QQQE to get the equal weight protection on a pullback in the mag 7. About a month ago, I sold my Amazon which I bought around 100 at the beginning of last year, at 179 and moved it into COWZ. My move here is based on two thoughts. Inflation, though nuanced, is definitely back. Inflation is what killed Amazon post Covid and provided the discount where I bought it. Energy costs (and housing) are the major components of the increase, which is not surprising looking at economic growth around the world, but especially here. With the FED not lowering interest rates anytime soon, companies with high free cash flow yield should do very well. So far, so good. This is where I am beating the indexes this year. Though, I wouldn’t complain about just matching them either. Here’s the chart, since it’s been a while.
https://yhoo.it/3ygw5v4
Chi – re: ” GOOD IDEA”
Think of all of the negative effects of the leverage requirements. This is why they must get rid of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR). We don’t need any stinking buffers…..
“Five of the 14 US dealers subject to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) ended last year with record exposures under their belts, putting a strain on their capital reserves to maintain healthy buffers. Bank of America, Capital One, Citi, Goldman Sachs and PNC Bank reported an increase of up to 2.8% quarter on quarter and 6.9% year on year in the metric that serves as the SLR’s denominator. In each case, this marked the highest figure the bank has ever reported.”
What about your Truth Social shares Lib?
Capital requirements have created a private market for debt where the banks used to play. Ultimately, if those investment pools destroy themselves, they are less able to socialize the losses. Blackstone, KKR et al. can incinerate themselves without a public outcry or safety net to fill the hole through the Treasury.
Juice Box says:
March 29, 2024 at 2:05 pm
Chi – re: ” GOOD IDEA”
Think of all of the negative effects of the leverage requirements. This is why they must get rid of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR). We don’t need any stinking buffers…..
“Five of the 14 US dealers subject to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) ended last year with record exposures under their belts, putting a strain on their capital reserves to maintain healthy buffers. Bank of America, Capital One, Citi, Goldman Sachs and PNC Bank reported an increase of up to 2.8% quarter on quarter and 6.9% year on year in the metric that serves as the SLR’s denominator. In each case, this marked the highest figure the bank has ever reported.”
The VIX has been rendered shite for a whole host of reasons, but regardless, it is trading at 13.01….. WTF?
Hope everyone had a Good Friday. Kiddo is home, epic rain coming, great day for ns
Napping.
A nice piece, give a good indication on why I despise Regan and Thatcher.
https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1773622834943742325
Fabius Maximus says:
March 29, 2024 at 10:36 pm
“A nice piece…”
No need to tell us why you don’t like the leaders that won the cold war and freed millions of people in eastern Europe. You’re a dyed-in-the-wool socialist (very likely a Marxist) who I’m sure couldn’t have cared less about the iron curtain and Berlin Wall — as long as you were on the safe side of it. Oh, and also the fact that you’re an antisemite and they were not.
Well, hell, I’ll post up from the email I got this morning…a certain local hand crafted distillery in Clifton is releasing some cask strength bourbon this afternoon…looks outstanding, sending someone over to pinch a couple bottles for me and bring out on their next trip. Stock up boys, BBQs, firepits, and graduations upcoming. Mmmmm.
chi…yeah, VIX is fucked and even worse its options by their nature behave entirely differently than stock/index options making some good strategies useless…Otherwise I’ve used those call write/put spread option hedges I posted up here a couple weeks ago across most of my positions through April expiry so I guess I should be mostly an observer until then, other than a couple situations I’ll keep trying to trim…also took down a slug of SPY 515P for end of April offset by some writes…directional trade, not hedge. Not what I usually do but tight stop…anywhere from a 5-7x return in the event of a 3-5% pullback…fits with worldview, not expecting a major correction and even if so it will be short lived, feels like too much money on the sidelines and too much conditioning to BTD for anything but a short dip and bounceback…other than that I have a lot of notional (like you’d seriously face palm me) positioned for lower rates on the further end of the T curve, that has really come in nicely now as things have settled down, also April, also options so don’t really need rates to actually come in just not go up appreciably or ideally do nothing…mutherfuckers at the Treasury Dept better not screw up funding for the next few weeks lol.
Oh, and chi how can I forget….GO RED!!
4pm…
Shit