From Corelogic:
CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Slows but Still Up by Over 5% in February
- U.S. single-family home prices rose by 5.5% year over year in February and are expected to taper to 3.1% growth by February 2025.
- Four of the top five states with the highest annual home price growth are in the Northeast: New Jersey, Rhode Island, Maine and Connecticut
- The five states where home prices remain furthest from the summer 2022 peak are Idaho, Washington, Utah, Vermont and Montana
- The Miami and San Diego metro areas continued to lead the country for annual growth in February, both at about 10%.
U.S. annual home price growth remained mostly consistent with numbers seen since last fall in February but finally slowed as the residual impact of comparing gains with weak 2022 home prices wore off. CoreLogic projects that year-over-year home price gains will continue to rise at a slower pace for the rest of 2024, which suggests more certainty for potential homebuyers who have been waiting to get a foot in the door. As noted in the most recent US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index report, an increase in for-sale inventory also benefits potential homebuyers, though affordability remains a concern, particularly if mortgage rates remain elevated throughout the spring homebuying season.
“Home price growth pivoted in February, as the impact of the January 2023 Home Price Index bottom finally faded,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “As a result, the U.S. should begin to see slowing annual home price gains moving forward.”
“Nevertheless,” Hepp continued, “with a 0.7% increase from January to February 2024, which is almost double the monthly increase recorded before the pandemic, spring home price gains are already off to a strong start despite continued mortgage rate volatility. That said, more inventory finally coming to market will likely translate to more options for buyers and fewer bidding wars, which typically keeps outsized price growth in check. Still, despite affordability challenges, homebuyer demand appears to favor already expensive, coastal markets with a limited availability of properties for sale.”
Looks like a bunch of Citi corp jobs, not tellers.
https://www.nj.gov/labor/assets/PDFs/WARN/2024_WARN_Notice_Archive.pdf
First
U.S. single-family home prices rose by 5.5% year over year in February and are expected to taper to 3.1% growth by February 2025.
Unless the FED cuts the rate in June and prices will exceed the expected 3.1%. Cutting the rate will sustain and increase prices and add fuel to the inflation engine. What’s the reason for cutting?
Ten 441
Fast: That is my point. All is well , economy is booming despite so called restrictive interest rates, inflation is not falling., so why cut rates? Lib says so commercial real estate loans can be refinanced. Perhaps, he is correct.
Every POS stock must go up! Except Truth Social and Tesla! Look at their fundamentals! Horrible!
Fast Eddie says:
April 3, 2024 at 9:20 am
“What’s the reason for cutting?”
To help out the big spenders that run the federal gov. With federal debt at ~34 trillion thanks to Joe’s reckless spending, you can bet that useless Yellen has been begging the fed for lower rates.
Re: rates, Fed doesn’t care about fiscal or CRE until it matters. They’re not pre-emptively cutting for something that hasn’t and may not happen, particularly since the three failures a year ago were not even a speed bump economically and especially considering the shitshow placement then of Signature to NYCB by our wonderfully competent Federal government staff nearly sunk the latter but again ultimately had zero impact IRL.
What corporate jobs does Citi have scattered in NJ suburbs? That bank has been a horror show since I was in the business in the 90s. Never able to get it right. Just like Deutsche. In perpetual restructuring on the road to nowhere. An incompetently run public utility with equal caliber employees whose commodity just happens to be money.
chi, think we’re on the same page for WBA….
“…META is a tremendous business that was being mismanaged. Alternatively, WBA is a POS business…”
Agree, why I specifically said it’s no NVDA and not even a five year hold.
“I just see META as (previously) being springloaded, while WBA is going to take a good amount of structuring your return profile to achieve a similar effect.”
Agree, why I say (and do) these trades through options…my springloading comes exactly from structuring the risk/reward profile which is both levering the upside and risk managing the downside.
And, btw, that structuring included META despite its better operating profile, I didn’t hop in META because it was/is an outstanding company…
It always makes me smile when experts come in after the fact on these situations with perfect 20/20 hindsight (not meaning you here) on the logic of the company’s underlying prospects…I watch some of the better hosts/guests on CNBC and everyone is a self-proclaimed genius on META four months after the fact with screaming buys in the 200s. Where were you 100 percentage points of gain ago, LOL?
Commercial RE loans, Federal debt, etc…. cut the rates and watch what’s left of the middle class suffer a bit more and the lower income class suffer even more. And in all honesty, I don’t put all the blame on the current administration. People are not taking responsibility for their own actions and lives and are doing a shit job of raising their kids. There’s no discipline, no sense of obligation and no willingness to sacrifice for the greater good. The muppets stare at s0cial media most of the day and try to one-up each other for shock value. We’re losing our sovereignty and our edge.
Sitting here on St. Thomas with my own private beach. Here is my real estate report. Don’t know how people live here electricity is 41 cents a kilowatt hour. House behind me is a flipper, the couple paid about 800k for it, was just a few walls, completely gutted, was once owned by some famous musician. They think they will finish it in a few more months. They were hammering away until the late hours every day so far.
Here are the before pictures.
https://www.seaglassproperties.com/search/homes-for-sale/11b-8-rem-smith-bay-ee-st-thomas-00802-21-1127-70955/
Super duper mega waterfront home next to me empty, and one behind also empty is for sale is 5 million. Living in paradise is expensive.
https://stthomasusvirginislandsrealestate.com/idx/12-D-1-Smith-Bay-EE-12-D-1-St-Thomas-mls_24-89/?SavedSearch=20230314175923488110000000&pg=1&OrderBy=-ListPrice&p=y&n=y
Alright, apologies in advance Phoenix but I’m sending you down the rabbit hole.
Don’t ask how I got directed here, lol.
Seems to skew Millennial and older Z. That’s about 45 million women.
Almost 14 million members on this sub. One-third of women that age.
So fucking glad I grew up when I did.
https://www.reddit.com/r/TwoXChromosomes/
One winner among many off there:
https://www.reddit.com/r/TwoXChromosomes/comments/15vl21z/women_only_please_ladies_has_the_popularity_of/
I don’t understand why Yellen wasn’t borrowing more at long term when rates were so low. Are there restrictions on long term debt vs t bills, or is it incompetence?
Juice
Next time you go on vacation please fill your fridge with Belgian lagers and organic fruit. I like to squat in style.
Left: the change of Zuck’s philosophy was unprecedented. He is a petulant mega geek man child. Unwavering in his vision. He appeared to be be a younger Musk with less gravitas and less sociability. He changed the name and focus of his company into something that was a financial death march.
The gamble was that Zuck would capitulate. Quite a gamble considering he had supermajority iron fisted control. He is completely shameless and ruthless. I don’t see an instance where he had shown the wisdom or maturity to change. The point being he had the audacity to go down the Meta path in the first place. Someone got through to him, the question is who was the one. Zuck must have long range ambitions that his stock needs to pay for.
Re: I like to squat in style.
My brother is house sitting this week and taking care of my dog. Cheaper than a kennel, since our town is off all week for spring break they jack up the rates at the kennel to like $80 a day. I just send my brother delivery for dinner. He wants Chinese tonight.
There is no squatting around here on St. Thomas. This is a gated private street, anyone looks suspicious and the people they pay to watch all the cameras will be sending in the goon squad. Everything is locked up tight too, even the paddle boards are locked up to the house. Somebody even stole the cheap fishing reel and left the pole, so I went and bought a new one. Have not caught anything yet. Did see some sea turtles and plenty of fish while snorkeling.
I said this months ago. Political interference. They want to keep longer term rates lower than they would otherwise be. There is a Presidential cycle. By rights the Ten should be north of 5.25 area. Imagine the fallout of 8%+ mortgages. The shift happened last coincident with the ignition of the stock market rally
Hold my beer says:
April 3, 2024 at 11:02 am
I don’t understand why Yellen wasn’t borrowing more at long term when rates were so low. Are there restrictions on long term debt vs t bills, or is it incompetence?
My whole block is a potential squatters paradise. I have 4 neighbors who go away for 3-4 months. One goes to Mexico, one goes to Argentina, one to Turkey. The others leaves memorial day and don’t show up again until Labor Day
BRT,
My whole block is a potential squatters paradise.
Okay, so when’s the party? ;)
ADP private sector payrolls for March 184k, 150k expected. Biggest increase since July of last year.
Every summer, they all disappear. You can move in, they won’t find out for months. My one neighbor in Turkey, his fire alarm system was going bonkers beeping. We texted them to let them know and they were like, “oh we can fix it when we get back in September”. It was friggin July. I was like, dude, you can’t have your crap making noise for 3 months. He had to mail the keys back to his in laws and they came in.
“Left: the change of Zuck’s philosophy was unprecedented…The gamble was that Zuck would capitulate.”
Yes.
“Quite a gamble considering he had supermajority iron fisted control.”
To the contrary, no, because…
“Someone got through to him, the question is who was the one.”
The market got through to him…I’ve seen it many times over, CEOs fighting institutions…I’ve seen it in IPO roadshows FFS…CEOs nearly always lose. It was an easy one way trade based on that…
Zuck was one of Earth’s top 10 wealthiest humans from 2015 through most of 2021 when the meta pivot tanked his shares. By early March 2022 with the shares down to around $200 he had already lost nearly one-half of his net worth and fell off that list. He then lost $30 billion in ONE day putting him at a net worth of $85 billion. By Nov 2022 with the shares then in the $90s he would be down to around $50 billion net worth. Mostly illiquid.
People will throw rotten vegetables at me but that is a real lifestyle change. Want a run of the mill yacht like your peers? $250 million. A single quality Impressionist painting? $100m. Don’t forget the private island(s). At $150B of net worth not a second thought. At $50 billion mostly illiquid….yes, but….
As in my prior post, Zuck said to Wall Street ‘I know better’, WS said ‘please don’t’, Zuck said ‘fuck you’, WS flexed, and not unpredictably Zuck capitulated. It is that simple. Best trades usually are….
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/03/mark-zuckerbergs-net-worth-fell-30-billion-as-meta-shares-tank.html#:~:text=Facebook%20co%2Dfounder%20Mark%20Zuckerberg,on%20earth%20since%20summer%202015.
Chicago,
You got that right! Rates must come down now. If they wait too far into the year, closer to November, it is obviously political interference. Didn’t Powell say previously rates would only come down once the 2% inflation target was reached?
Went to an old fashioned beer hall for lunch this afternoon. Really neat place with a great atmosphere. Unfortunately prices here to eat out are also noticeably higher. This inflation is a real killer.
On Meta, NYU Finance professor had an interesting series of posts on its valuation back in 2022
https://aswathdamodaran.substack.com/p/facebook-meta-lesson-3-tell-me-a
Haven’t eaten out much the past few months but I went into Philly yesterday. All the sandwiches at various places were up $2 from maybe January.
Never made it here. It still looks cool.
https://twitter.com/JohnLeFevre/status/1775559657576157281
Ah St Thomas. Lived there in the ‘60’s. Still have family there. My cousin carried the Virgin Island flag in the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics competing in the first Windsurfing competition. Water costs are worse than electric. Hope you’re at the east end. Lots of crime now on the island. Take the ferry from Red Hook over to St John for a day trip.
Sweet Home Chicago
Good stuff
No One says:
April 3, 2024 at 3:16 pm
On Meta, NYU Finance professor had an interesting series of posts on its valuation back in 2022
https://aswathdamodaran.substack.com/p/facebook-meta-lesson-3-tell-me-a
Yes east end for sure on the beach, no crime but we are careful when out shopping etc. I did meet the new home owners doing the renovation. House was owned by Fleetwood Mac. New homeowners have been at it for 2 years now, they say they won’t be flipping it. They are farmers from Nebraska, wife is here full time supervising the workers and husband flies back and forth, they work day and night on their new home, when done it will be more than 5,000 sq ft. Wife says it’s been difficult to find good workers. Did not ask what they charge but minimum wage here is $10.50 an hour. I don’t think any workers would live up to a farmers standard both are tough as nails and were working late into the night, they poured a concrete skim coat themselves last night in the lower level of the addition to the home.
The beach out front is Pelican next to Sapphire, some really great kite boarders have been out there all week doing jumps and tricks. I think windsurfing is dying out did not see even a rental. Plenty of good snorkelers, even some crazy tourist with a pool noodle doing laps all around the bay.
St. John is really nice, if it wasn’t so windy the last few days I would like to sail around it, and make stops at the various hidden beaches. Not this trip. Magen’s bay beach was crowded and a bit dirty the cruise ships all flock there. It’s another island I can check off my list. Will be back in Joisey tomorrow as we have two soccer matches this weekend.