From Yahoo Finance:
The ‘growing crisis of the young American male’ could send home prices falling for years or even decades, says the ‘Oracle of Wall Street’
Meredith Whitney, deemed the “Oracle of Wall Street” for successfully calling the financial crisis, says home prices are likely to fall substantially, and the reasons have to do with habits picked up by young guys.
“You have men staying single longer…and then you have what I call a growing crisis of the young American male…they’re twice as likely to live at home than women. So one out of five young men live at home with their parents, and these aren’t young men going to college and coming home for holiday breaks, these are young, grown men choosing to live at home,” Whitney told CNBC this morning.
The outcome could have profound effects on the housing market, she said.
“I think you’re going to start to see housing prices begin a multi-year/decade decline, just due to supply/demand dynamics,” Whitney said. “So you’ve had a demand, supply imbalance: more demand, less supply. And I think that’s going to invert.” So what that means is supply will then outweigh demand, which is why she sees home prices falling for years.
Whitney’s take is based in part on demographic shifts. The bulk of housing is owned by people and households over the age of 40, she said. But household formations are the lowest they’ve been in more than a century, which translates into a demand problem, she said today.
Yet many experts have predicted that home prices will only continue to go up from here. Mortgage rates reached a two-decade high last year, and people were still buying homes—and because there simply aren’t enough homes, demand outweighs supply, keeping home prices high. Whitney, however, is calling it differently as shifts within the housing world, and apparently among young male adults, occur. It’s not clear what data she is referring to here or in the information above.
First
“…the crisis of the American male…”
BY MICHAEL KUNZELMAN
Updated 2:44 PM EDT, April 3, 2024
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WASHINGTON (AP) — A Washington state man who used a megaphone to orchestrate a mob’s attack on police officers guarding the U.S. Capitol was sentenced on Wednesday to more than seven years in prison.
U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth said videos captured Taylor James Johnatakis playing a leadership role during the Jan. 6, 2021, riot. Johnatakis led other rioters on a charge against a police line, “barked commands” over his megaphone and shouted step-by-step directions for overpowering officers, the judge said.
Johnatakis, who represented himself with an attorney on standby, has repeatedly expressed rhetoric that appears to be inspired by the anti-government “ sovereign citizen ” movement. He asked the judge questions at his sentencing, including, “Does the record reflect that I repent in my sins?”
Try as they might with hyperbole, it’s hard for the AP propagandists to justify a recommended 9 year sentence. In other words, another political prisoner.
What sentence did Bidens doj revived for the invaders who smashed down fences and assaulted the Texas National guard?
“I think you’re going to start to see housing prices begin a multi-year/decade decline, just due to supply/demand dynamics,” Whitney said.
Not here. Maybe that’s the case somewhere around Peoria, Illinois but even house tour guides get lucky sometimes when they claimed that ‘you’ll be priced out forever’. 550K is the new 350K as far as entry point is concerned.
Fast: So we have more men living at home, and many young men today apparently have no interest in marriage and family. And, we have a declining birth rate, because less young people are getting married, partly because many young men don’t want to, and many young women can’t find suitable men, or less women are interested in marriage and kids. But, we still have a demand for 3 to 4 bedroom homes in the suburbs. Makes no sense to me.
Debt is the new asset.
Fast Eddie says:
April 4, 2024 at 9:13 am
“I think you’re going to start to see housing prices begin a multi-year/decade decline, just due to supply/demand dynamics,” Whitney said.
Not here. Maybe that’s the case somewhere around Peoria, Illinois but even house tour guides get lucky sometimes when they claimed that ‘you’ll be priced out forever’. 550K is the new 350K as far as entry point is concerned.
3b
You need a gaming room, a home office, home gym, bar, collection room to fill with action figures and anime characters. Even then 4 bedrooms won’t be enough.
Hold: Room for everything but the kids!
According to a report by Colliers Investment Management Co. office vacancy rates for the first quarter of 2024 are at an all time high.
Looks like some of the young guys have been trained by Disney that only girls can be special, brave, heroic, effective.
Maybe they also believed all the promotions of girls in STEM in schools.
Then there are the so-called “incels” a bunch of guys whining from their computers.
Chinese manufacturers draining the vital fluids of American men with better designed fleshlights.
Maybe Netflix needs to run a “men in movies” month featuring mostly John Wayne and Clint Eastwood to help rejuvenate America’s masculinity.
No one: I had to Google incels, I was not familiar with the term.
The suburban 3 to 4 bedroom home is essential for a number of reasons. Mostly for what was mentioned above. But the biggest reason is for status. Think of what friends and family will say when they find out you just purchased a center hall colonial in Glen Rock! The prestige factor is a must in Northern NJ! Appearances matter. Bag one in Upper Montclair (must mention Upper Montclair) or Glen Ridge and they’ll really resent you! Though, I don’t know if Essex County has unicorn sightings.
And you need 2 70k SUVs to go alongside the bedrooms you don’t need.
3b you might want to make sure you google fleshlight in anon mode so you don’t get too many ads afterwards.
Fast/Hold: Thanks for the education, trying to keep up with it all !
No one: That one I know what it is!
Fortune Magazine reports that more Gen Z are going to trade school to become welders and carpenters. Cheaper than college, and straight career path.
“What sentence did Bidens doj revived for the invaders who smashed down fences and assaulted the Texas National guard?”
Traitor-
Unlike the Jan 6 rioters, those invaders weren’t dumb enough to livestream themselves assaulting the cops!
You have an entire generation of young dudes not worrying about how to hold a hand, or ask someone out, but instead ingesting YouTube videos from people who alter their perception.. I mean it’s going to go the incel way every single time you run it back and play it again.
Prior to the prevalence of social media – but really the rise of YouTube – people who excessively consumed p@nography distorted their reality of that concept. Now we have A LOT of young people excessively consuming pseudo playboy Andrew Tate videos with a distorted sense of a much broader concept, what relationship is.
Turns out radicalization isn’t just for religion and politics.
3b,
Son: Can you give me a hundred bucks, I wanna take my girl out for dinner.
Dad: A hundred bucks, where you taking her?
Son: Mc Donalds. Guess you haven’t seen the price of fast food lately. Plus she is bringing her friend and I have to be chivalrous. She also said her mother is stuck at home and needs food for her as well.
Dad. Go back downstairs and play with your action figures.
BR
It’s you that is far out of it.
I know these women. You need to spend and spend heavy on them. How many countries have you visited by your 24th birthday without your parents?
All of their “instas” are full of pictures with no men in them. No girlfriend either.
Guys today need to pay for trips to Aruba.
LW’s post from the other day is correct, the second link he posted.
Fast Eddie,
Mr. Real Estate.
Ask your buddies in the field which gender chooses the home. Which gender goes along with the purchase.
I’d bet 8 out of 10 times one person is making the decision.
Anatahan.
Watch it.
True story.
At the end of World War II, a young woman found herself stranded with 32 young men, full of testosterone, on a remote island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
As you can imagine, there were numerous fights among the men, all vying for her attention. Periodically, the woman would shift her affection to a different man, after which that man would end up murdered.
On the secluded tropical island, the only woman on the island became a source of passion, love, intrigue, hatred, and murder.
After six killings and countless conflicts, the surviving men eventually realized that the woman was not worth all the strife and decided to kill her in order to put an end to the bloodshed between them.
The woman managed to escape the island, granting interviews about her miraculous survival amidst the tumultuous group of sailors on that remote island, and even achieving minor celebrity status. Her name was Kazuko Higa.
The story of Kazuko Higa a.k.a. the Queen of Anatahan may sound like fiction…
First, young men have to create a career for themselves. Relations with women will follow from that starting point. Being a neurotic whiner failing to thrive in the real world leads to a situation where no woman worth having would have you.
No One says:
April 4, 2024 at 11:24 am
First, young men have to create a career for themselves. Relations with women will follow from that starting point.
Women see your potential. Like ticks see humans when they walk into the woods.
No potential, no ticks.
Being a neurotic whiner failing to thrive in the real world leads to a situation where no woman worth having would have you.
Being a neurotic whiner failing to thrive in the real world leads to a situation where no woman will have you cause there is nothing to use or take before she moves on to the next host.
No One says:
April 4, 2024 at 11:24 am
First, young men have to create a career for themselves. Relations with women will follow from that starting point.
Wear condoms, use tick spray. Go enjoy your hike in the woods, but make sure when you come home you don’t bring any ticks into the house.
Phoenix — This is literally the exact advice we’ve been giving you, no?
“Wear condoms, use tick spray. Go enjoy your hike in the woods, but make sure when you come home you don’t bring any ticks into the house.”
Boomer Remover says:
April 4, 2024 at 11:39 am
Phoenix — This is literally the exact advice we’ve been giving you, no?
No.
It’s the advise I give to all of the young men I work with.
What you give is “horses left the barn” advise.
“Rates must come down now. If they wait too far into the year, closer to November, it is obviously political interference.”
November meeting is immediately post election.
Last swing at the ball pre-election is September. Market says now there is a 76% chance of at least one rate cut by July and by September a 92% chance of one and a 60% chance of two.
If you’re looking to play that the market might be offsides for me it’s the July-Sept timeline…as I’ve said about this man (JPow) don’t watch what he says but what he does and who he is…for him September will be too close to the election unless the economy falls off a cliff in the summer…meaning to get two cuts you would need both June and July given the near certainty of the Fed holding in May…which I just don’t see as probable, at least not to the level the market has priced.
“On Meta, NYU Finance professor had an interesting series of posts on its valuation back in 2022…[aswath damodaran]”
Love this guy…chi when you posted about him last month regarding valuations I was going to share that I knew his work well as it was the basis for parts of our Analyst Program. Still have, with the NYU bookstore scan code, some 300-level course material we used…three decades old it remains on my short bookshelf.
BTW, glanced at but didn’t read the link fully…his sentence in the summary is EXACTLY part of my META investment theme I posted yesterday, nearly word-for-word…I was trained well….
“In the second post, I pointed to inconsistencies in how accountants classify operating, capital and financing expenses, and the consequences for reported accounting numbers. Some of the bad news in Facebook’s earnings report, especially relating to lower profitability, reflected accounting mis-categorization of R&D and expenses at Reality Labs (Facebook’s Metaverse entree) as operating, rather than capital expenses.”
Fed Gov Barkin says Fed would be wise to take our time in cutting rates, due to hot inflation in early 2024.
I still can’t figure out why they’re discussing a rate cut when inflation is at dumpster fire levels. Everyone I talk to is aghast at the price of food, goods and services. Go ahead, drop the rate and let’s get that standard toothpaste to the $10 per tube level. I cannot figure how people with little to no savings or investments are not on the verge of losing their minds.
The bottom line is Joe Biden treats illegal immigrants as his constituents and his political opposition are the enemy. A true traitor through and through.
“I still can’t figure out why they’re discussing a rate cut when inflation is at dumpster fire levels.”
Managing expectations and letting the market do its work….
If they keep the carrot of cuts out there but delivery is delayed every step the donkey takes gets you closer to your destination without beating the beast with a stick…ie, we went from market expecting six cuts to three and the indices and economy are still pumping ATHs while real rates stay high further tweaking inflation.
If they take out the switch and slap the beast across the ass, taking cuts off the table or even signaling a hike, yeah you get to your destination faster but it’s not a pleasant ride…and from their perspective they don’t really care the speed at which they arrive, just that they arrive….
and from their perspective they don’t really care the speed at which they arrive, just that they arrive….
Got it. :)
“Debt is the new asset.”
Mark-to-market home mortgages for consumers.
Sold a bond at market peak, prices collapse, homeowner sitting on a large unrealized gain in his mortgage….
If I had the time I’d do some bond math and see what a market rate low 30 year conventional mortgage ‘issued at par’ would be worth to the homeowner today in unbooked capital gains.
The best advice i can give anyone is to never fear being alone.
“Guys today need to pay for trips to Aruba.”
Still cheaper to rent than own!
“LW’s post from the other day is correct, the second link he posted.”
Haha, thought you’d like that…downright frightening many of the women on there…I had to google ‘red pill slang’ yesterday…
Left: Just had to Google red pill, only to find there is also blue pilled, and black pilled.
chi, from yesterday, WBA shares up 2.6% today in a 1.2% down market….
not taking a victory lap as timing is luck, it’s one day, and this thing is volatile…can easily be a big market underperformer tomorrow but still… :)
Leftwing
More your type?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13272375/shocking-moment-spirit-airlines-flight-meltdown-n-word-cop.html
I didn’t know setting money on fire could be capitalized.
BTW Bernie Ebbers used to capitalize operating expenses. Ebbers got six or seven C-Suite dudes at AT&T run out of town because they couldn’t match his margins.
leftwing says:
April 4, 2024 at 12:40 pm
“In the second post, I pointed to inconsistencies in how accountants classify operating, capital and financing expenses, and the consequences for reported accounting numbers. Some of the bad news in Facebook’s earnings report, especially relating to lower profitability, reflected accounting mis-categorization of R&D and expenses at Reality Labs (Facebook’s Metaverse entree) as operating, rather than capital expenses.”
left: not disagreeing; I am throwing out ideas so you elaborate more; I am always in learn mode….. I am in a constant state of fear being in an echo chamber…….
Learn Mode: https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTLBwVXHk/