To be honest, there are some signs…

From Business Insider:

Home sellers are facing a summer from hell

The past few years were very good to people who decided to sell their homes. The massive relocation shuffle meant most homes hitting the market were the subject of bidding wars. Rich baby boomers jumped in with all-cash offers, and sellers scored huge windfalls as weary buyers pushed prices to new heights. There was no question who had the upper hand.

Now, sellers’ fortunes are changing. Home prices are still rising, at a modest pace, around most of the country, but gone are the days of throwing up a for-sale sign and waiting for the feeding frenzy to begin. As buyers’ options slowly increase, sellers may have to slash asking prices or wait longer for a viable offer to come along. Today’s home shoppers aren’t so willing to pass on inspections or give up other contingency rights to expedite a sale, either. Unlike their predecessors at the height of the pandemic, buyers can now afford to kick the tires before jumping into a deal.

Most painfully, mortgage rates have spiked to 7% from their record lows of less than 3% in 2021, which has not only deterred prospective buyers but also changed the calculus for many sellers. Since most people have to turn around and buy another property to live in, even the ones who profit handsomely off a sale are finding it hard to upgrade their digs, given the increased borrowing costs. It’s shaping up to be a cruel summer for sellers who aren’t ready to come to terms with this new reality.

Of course, it could always be worse. There are no signs that home prices are on the verge of collapse, and more sales are happening now than a year ago. After all, people have to move for a wide variety of life reasons; mortgage rates be damned. The number of homes for sale at any given moment is also growing, which means we’re inching closer to a “normal” market. The Housing Ice Age is slowly thawing.

But the peak months of home selling, which last from the spring into the middle of summer, may come with a rude awakening this year. Those who hoped that lower mortgage rates would grease the wheels of the housing market, nudging more buyers to get off the sidelines and bid up home prices, are realizing that dream scenario won’t come to pass. Sellers may still have an advantage, but it’s getting slimmer.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

50 Responses to To be honest, there are some signs…

  1. Fast Eddie says:


  2. Fast Eddie says:

    The NJ/NY/CT housing sphere doesn’t need a sales pitch when it comes to buying and selling. A house is gone days after it’s listed IF it has been maintained. And the price you see now is the price in which it will sell. Any house where a scheduled visit is planned means it’s over-priced and smells like shit. If it’s desirable, it’s sold. Price may plateau here but a noticeable slide doesn’t happen. If you’re already in the game, touché for being lucky; for those 1st time buyers, here’s a parting gift for stopping by.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    Follow-the-crowd cult + rainbow, college protester-type workers only + overpriced crappy product = failed business strategy

  4. Phoenix says:

    Summed up nicely.

    Hold my beer says:
    May 8, 2024 at 5:53 pm

    Instead of Mr Wilson you get Karen who has to take her cats to a cat psychiatrist . She can’t understand the cats act up because they hate living in the same space as her. You get the limousine liberal on the other side sipping his Australian wine and snacking on his salad comprised of ingredients from 3 continents while he rails about climate change and carbon, and across the street you have Mr maga complaining about illegals as he gets his lawn mowed, food delivered, and roof replaced by undocumented travellers working off the books.

  5. Phoenix says:

    It’s not a crappy product, it’s coffee. Narcissistic coffee.

  6. Phoenix says:

    ‘Looking back, I don’t know that I was ever really in love with the man, but I was in love with the idea of being married to the man I had a family with.’

    Poor Shaq.

    She just wanted your money and fame.

  7. 3b says:

    Fast: There are a couple of houses in my town I thought would have gone already , but have not. They are in the 650k range. There are another 4 or 5 with a one million handle on them ( amazing to me) and others with prices in between. Maybe 10 or 12 SFH s listed, not much, but they don’t seem to be moving either.

  8. Phoenix says:

    What does whole milk in schools have anything to do with the FAA?

    A bill that extends the authority of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) expires Friday, but lawmakers are still trying to attach their pet projects into the legislation.

    As a result, Democrats and Republicans are trying to attach amendments to the already 1,000-page bill to secure funding for their personal ‘pet projects.’

    Their proposals include: outlawing drones flying over NFL and MLB games, adding pro-Palestine protestors to the ‘no fly’ list, increasing the number of flights from Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) and reintroducing whole milk onto public school lunch menus.

  9. Phoenix says:

    ‘murican workers.

    Strong Southerners. Red blooded Americans. Flag wavin’ and hard workin’

    Cashin’ checks and sleepin’ well.

    Falsifying records. Hehe.

    The US’ Federal Aviation Administration said Monday it has opened an investigation into the company after workers at a South Carolina plant falsified inspection records on certain 787 planes.

    In an email to Boeing’s South Carolina employees on April 29, Scott Stocker, who leads the 787 program, said a worker observed an ‘irregularity’ in a required test of the wing-to-body join and reported it to his manager.

    ‘After receiving the report, we quickly reviewed the matter and learned that several people had been violating Company policies by not performing a required test, but recording the work as having been completed,’ Stocker wrote.

  10. Juice Box says:

    Biden said on CNN last night he stopped shipments of 2,000-pound mk-84 bombs to Israel. They IDF ran through their stores of these bunker buster bombs and the latest order was 2,000 more. Those would flatten those tents is Rafah for sure, these are fragmentation bombs with a 1200 foot lethal blast radius of hot metal. NY Times did a piece on those bombs back around Christmas on the destruction and death and it seems Biden’s change of heart here has more to due with the protests and well there is an election to win in November. We cannot have 100,000 more children who are basically hostages to this situation shredded to bits before then.

  11. BRT says:

    Speaking of coffee, had to grab a quick iced coffee before my kid’s game at Panera. Holy $4. Insane.

  12. Juice Box says:

    re: “adding pro-Palestine protestors to the ‘no fly’ list”

    More and more like China every day, we are however a decade behind them. We get a government employee deciding whether we can fly without even an arrest or trial. China’s social credit system is the best at this, facial recognition and AI decides whether you get to fly or even take the bus, they have banned tens of millions of their misbehaving citizens from doing just that.

  13. Libturd says:


    I told ya the ship was turning. This was to be expected. At some point, the higher interest rates were going to slow down the buyer. Especially now that all that stimulus money is long gone. I’m guessing the Gaza Genocide and the Russian invasion will be ending soon too. So the two major components left driving inflation, oil and housing, should be kaput and then it’s FED interest rate lowering time, just as Powell planned it, only it took a bit longer than expected. Then again, strange things happen when the government gives everyone a 15% raise and many wealthy folks even more through the fraudulent PPE program.

    I’ve been following the Vegas market like a tumbleweed. Things have stagnated at the million and higher level and there was about a 15% drop in 2023, but things are still moving, but showing signs of cooling at the < million level. Inventory is less of a problem there as there is development going up everywhere.

    I can't consider moving until next Summer, so I stand to lose a bit as the expensive house will certainly drop in greater value than the significantly cheaper Vegas home, though Vegas has a history of dropping fast and hard, so we'll see. Maybe we'll get lucky, In the meantime, I've been doing everything in my power to make my place turnkey and putting a lot of sweat equity into it.

    So far, in the last three years, we have:
    Replaced the roofs (separate garage too) down to the sheathing
    Painted the exterior
    Replaced 5 of the original windows, we also replaced 12 windows in 2011.
    Replaced the furnace, water heater, washer, dryer
    Smart thermostat installed, smart door lock installed, smart water detector by furnace and water heater and by French drain
    Sured up and restained the deck (it looks brand new)
    Replaced the porch and walkway to the street with engineered stone pavers
    Did a crap load of landscaping (mostly pressure treated wood edging around beds) and planted perennials up the wazoo
    Installed the requisite copper street address sign with patriotic heart design (for Gary)
    I am currently lightening the stain and removing the dirt/grease/finish on all of the stained oak moldings in the tutor starting with the original front door and restaining them all so they look brand new. This has clearly never been done since the house was built 100 years ago.

    After that:
    Replace a bunch of tile that is either cracked or outdated
    Paint the interior
    Seal the driveway
    Touch up the scratches and stain blemishes on kitchen cabinets and reset hinges so doors are all centered evenly
    Wainscot walls on stairway from kitchen to basement

    Figure my OOP for all of this will be well under 100K. It should easily grab 200K in bidding war. The curb appeal, where you get the most bang for your buck, has been improved dramatically. The before and after in Google maps will be dramatic. Our only short-coming is that the home only has 1 full bathroom and 1 half bathroom. Also, we use window air conditioners. Otherwise, the rooms are really large, the kitchen is modern with SS and 6-burner stove as well as counter depth fridge. We are in the home stretch now.

  14. Phoenix says:


    Nosedive. Black Mirror. Excellent episode.

    Society has embraced a technology wherein everyone shares their daily activities through eye implants and mobile devices where one rates their interactions with others on a scale from one to five stars, cumulatively affecting everyone’s socioeconomic status.

  15. Phoenix says:


    Have Eddie come and inspect.

    Then and only then will you know if it’s done right.

    Eddie Certified. Hehe.

  16. Libturd says:

    I’m just not letting him anywhere near my pool.

  17. Libturd says:

    Hey ChiFi,

    You still renting?

  18. Juice Box says:

    Phoenix – That FAA legislation will pass. Right now our Congress critters are inconvenienced since no flights west of Minneapolis, Oklahoma City or Dallas are allowed to fly into DCA airport due to some silly 1200 mile distance rule for DCA. That is the main hold up of this legislation.

    It’s a great excuse to expand the FBI powers to investigate anyone protesting anything and start banning them from air travel. The no-fly list is a classified system that has held up to multiple court challenges for years. Once you get on it you are doomed forever. Recent Supreme court ruling FBI v. Fike. You can challenge all you want in court we (FBI) don’t have to tell you why you are on the no-fly list.

  19. Phoenix says:

    Watch 30 seconds of this.

    Then watch the rest if you want.

  20. Hold my beer says:

    How soon before a conservative influencer goes to Princeton and makes a video eating fried chicken, pizza and popcorn in front of these hunger strike students?

  21. BRT says:

    When you fast, your body loses hydration, especially when you’ve cleared all your sugar reserves and your physique becomes flat and deflated. I’m not seeing any of that on these kids. They are full of it…eating chipotle bowls in their tents while no one is looking.

  22. Phoenix says:

    You once posted a great thing about CO2 and diet. Too bad I never saved that post. It was a masterpiece.

  23. Hold my beer says:


    But they’re now immunocompromised.

  24. Libturd says:

    How could they be? They always wear masks (probably saturated with energy gel).

  25. D-FENS says:

    Libturd, are you downsizing? I might be misremembering this but I thought you plan was to retire in Costa Rica. Is Vegas a stop on the way to moving to CR?

    I really do wish I bought a larger house in 2006…my kids are getting into teenage years and things are getting cramped. I often think about upgrading but I just can’t stomach it with these prices/rates…even if I brought a lot of cash and equity from the sale of my current home.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Buying in this environment is def high risk. Of course, it can keep going up. I would not have the stomach to buy right now.

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    People should have been buying when I was yelling and screaming to take the free money (low rates) to buy cheap housing. When nobody wants to touch real estate, that is the time to buy. When everyone thinks it is going to go up quickly for a quick buck….sell. Apply this same mindset to stocks or any other type of investment. Markets matter….supply/demand makes the rules.

  28. Libturd says:

    Rightsizing is what they call it in HR. Actually, the move is precipitated by cost savings. I expect to be able to keep my job since I’m permanent WFH since 2015. Gator could quit working and we would be pretty close to break even based on the cost differences between living here and in Las Vegas. Costa Rica is still on the table, but ideally, we would do a 50/50 split in retirement. We would like to do summers and winters in CR and spring and fall in LV. RE in CR got a little silly in recent years (unsurprisingly) but when it pulls back, we’ll start looking again. My guess is, we’ll eventually go to CR full time once my wife is convinced it works for us.

    We should be able to pocket 700K net from the GR home sale, and be mortgage free if we chose that route. I expect to spend somewhere around 600K for a 4br 3br in Green Valley or Summerlin. The goal is to purchase a home built before the 2000 boom for after that developer quality went to complete shit. Taxes there are approximately 2-3K and there is no income tax. Sales tax is a little high at 8.4%, but whose buying anything when they get older. There are no tolls in Nevada and everything municipal is significantly cheaper. Very few inspections or certs required. It’s simply cheaper all around. Energy costs ar easily offset with solar. The produce out there is much better too, considering so much of it comes from the valleys in CA or is grown in the desert. I could go on and on, but the biggest gain for me is the ability to exploit casino promotions. It’s getting tougher in AC for sure.

  29. Juice Box says:

    re: ability to exploit casino promotions?

  30. BRT says:

    I was half joking about selling my home after the neighbors went for $950k. But, the neighbor’s friend was the one outbid on 3 of the properties. She asked if she could give them my number to inquire about my home. I said sure…. My other neighbor just sold privately without putting it on the market. I have no plans on listing my home but if these people wanna throw me a million, I might not be able to say no.

  31. 3b says:

    BRT: At some point there will be a recession, and probably a nasty one. When that happens are some of those people who are now throwing around 800k to a million going to get into trouble, and cry that they need help, ( as in being bailed out), and no one told them, the price was too high, and their realtor/ mortgage broker told them they could afford it. Just asking.

  32. JUice Box says:

    BRT – next door sold for 1.1 m and new owner just poured in about $300k in redoing the entire place. I am waiting for someone to knock on my door, my sale price will be somewhere around there…It’s not like I will be leaving feet first.

  33. Juice Box says:

    3B – If Covid proves anything the next recession will be a short one. March and April 2020…It lasted only two months…

    Ofcource there was massive money printing to make up for the output gap. Everyone was getting something, it was like a free for all of free loans and all…Money flowing like rivers down the street.

  34. 3b says:

    Juice: Not so sure about short, lots and lots of debt floating around.

  35. Libturd says:

    “Money flowing like rivers down the street.”

    Personally, there was a dry wash in front of my home.

  36. Libturd says:

    And 3B,

    There are always bailouts, but only for the misbehavin.

  37. Very Stable Genius says:

    Unreal. Joe, please. Too much winning.

    UPDATED THU, MAY 9 20243:33 PM EDT
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  38. Very Stable Genius says:

    “Money flowing like rivers down the street.”

    Most Republican congressmen, ChiFi, Grim, all got their PPP loans

  39. 3b says:

    Lib: But of course, for the misbehaving, and that includes the misbehaving middle class too. The rest of us of course get nothing.

  40. Juice Box says:

    If you search the FBI news feed there are like several hundred stories ( 1526 results) of people sentenced so far for PPP loan fraud.

    There must be some hysterical yard time everyday for those federal inmates,. they must be sharing stories they about off the bling they purchased with the stolen PPP money….

  41. 3b says:

    Juice: Student loan forgiveness, mortgage loan modifications during the financial crisis, people who spent years in houses without paying their mortgages, along with other give away over the years. The rest of us got nothing, and in fact were lectured on how we should not complain about the giveaways. Check your privilege I guess.

  42. Libturd says:

    That’s why my goal since 2008 has been to take as much moral hazard as possible. Believe me, I’m thinking about taking out a jumbo 30 year loan even though Gator and I are not exactly good health specimens.

  43. 3b says:

    Lib: In the end I don’t think you will do it. It’s not in you.

  44. 3b says:

    Brutal civil war in Sudan, massive ethnic cleansing being carried out. And, not a peep out of Biden, the media or those college students protesting.

  45. LAX says:

    5:00 you aren’t wrong.

  46. Libturd says:

    Those college students are completely misled and I’m not being biased. After what happened in the Holocaust to my tribe, you have to expect a pretty brutal response.

    At any point, including now, the hostages could be released and the remnants of Hamas can lay down their arms. They choose not too. The kids are plain wrong. Plus they suck at protesting.

  47. 3b says:

    Lib: You would think these kids especially the ones at the Ivies who are supposedly to be the best and brightest would have a clue as to what is going on, but they don’t.

    Meanwhile, in Sudan Arabs are slaughtering Black Africans and other indigenous ethnic groups in Sudan s civil war, and nothing. I guess it does not fit the narrative for these leftists and their leftist professors.

  48. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s the issue: everyone counting their home equity.

    Most don’t understand that these current prices can’t be supported at high volume…it’s either sell now or not.

    JUice Box says:
    May 9, 2024 at 3:27 pm
    BRT – next door sold for 1.1 m and new owner just poured in about $300k in redoing the entire place. I am waiting for someone to knock on my door, my sale price will be somewhere around there…It’s not like I will be leaving feet first.

  49. BRT says:

    “Those college students are completely misled”

    This isn’t the only issue/topic kids are being misled on

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