What’s the next year hold?

From Fast Company:

Updated home price forecasts from Zillow and Moody’s for 400 housing markets

Despite strained housing affordability, national home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, increased by 3.9% from May 2023 to May 2024 (see map below).

Over the short term, economists at Zillow and Moody’s expect national home price growth to decelerate.

Zillow’s latest forecast for U.S. home prices from May 2024 to May 2025 is -1.2%.

Moody’s latest forecast for U.S. home prices from May 2024 to May 2025 is +0.4%.

Zillow’s 12-month national home price forecast (-1.2%) predicts softer home prices than Moody’s (+0.4%), which is a bit surprising. Over the past two years, Zillow’s forecast model has consistently predicted more appreciation, while Moody’s has been relatively more bearish.

“The effects of ‘rate lock,’ owners holding on to their existing homes and low-rate mortgages, appear to be lessening over time, even as most outstanding mortgages have a rate well below what’s currently being quoted on the market,” wrote Zillow chief economist Skylar Olsen in a report this month.

Olsen added, “Home sellers are returning to the market but finding buyers hesitating. Fresh listings of houses rose significantly over last year, outpacing sales and cooling buyer competition and home price appreciation. Zillow forecasts further price relief on the horizon—further injections of inventory and mortgage rates expected to stay elevated through the year should temper competition.”

Similar to Zillow’s chief economist, the chief economist at Moody’s, Mark Zandi, believes an easing lock-in effect will soon soften home price growth.

“We expect homes for sale to steadily increase as more existing homeowners need to sell for demographic reasons—death, divorce, children, job change—and lower mortgage rates help ease their interest rate lock. The lower rates will also support housing demand, but the increase in housing supply will be even more significant, weighing on house price gains,” Zandi told ResiClub.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

19 Responses to What’s the next year hold?

  1. Chi in the PRI says:


  2. Chi in the PRI says:

    Chi in the PRI says:
    June 26, 2024 at 6:17 am
    Where is the new thread?

    Ithaca has rebounded. It is glorious. Great vibe.

    It is also teeming with lesbians in love. Feels like moths to light

  3. grim says:

    Always a leading indicator of gentrification..

  4. 3b says:

    Israel’s Supreme Court rules that ultra orthodox citizens must serve in the Israeli armed forces.

  5. Juice Box says:

    3B- That is discrimination, the do not conscript Arab citizens

  6. Juice box says:

    3B – same ruling seems to have ended their stipends for yeshiva. 55,000 Haredi in over 1,200 yeshivas will lose their funding.

    I bet many of them to avoid the draft will end up leaving Israel and coming here to the USA to join the welfare rolls with their cousins.

  7. 3b says:

    Juice: Understandable on the Arab side, but some Arabs, mainly Christian serve in the IDF, as do the Druze. The ultra Orthodox population is increasingly dramatically, its only right that they be required to serve.

  8. D-FENS says:

    Man I need to move. New neighbor finally hired someone to mow after not mowing since early April…

    She’s not unfriendly but kids are a bit out of control…throw their empty water bottles and snack wrappers over on-to my yard and let their dog krap on my lawn.

    I’m either going to move or look into putting up a really tall fence.

  9. leftwing says:

    chi, any time with clot?

  10. Juice Box says:

    D-FENScollect the trash and poop and return it in a nicely wrapped box with a bow.

  11. BRT says:

    D fens, there’s a woman 2 blocks down that will walk up your driveway and drop her dogs crap bag in your garbage can. I stealthily followed her home one day. I left it on her driveway for her.

  12. D-FENS says:


    PONTIAC, May 16, 2024 – United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM), the #1 overall mortgage lender in America, announced today at UWM LIVE!, the largest mortgage broker event of the year, 0% Down Purchase, a program aimed to help more borrowers become homeowners without an upfront down payment.

    This UWM-exclusive program allows qualified borrowers to receive a 3% down payment assistance loan up to $15,000 from UWM. This loan will not accrue interest and will not require a monthly payment.

    “UWM’s 0% Down Purchase program is going to change the game this purchase season,” said Mat Ishbia, president and CEO at UWM. “No other wholesale lender in the country is offering this, meaning independent mortgage brokers now have a significant advantage with consumers and real estate agents. Thousands of borrowers are sitting on the sidelines because they don’t have a downpayment – this program removes that barrier.”

    To be eligible for this product, borrowers must be at or below 80% of the Area Median Income for the address of the property they are buying or one borrower is a first-time homebuyer. The qualifying borrower will then be given a 3% down payment assistance loan, up to $15,000, in the form of a second lien loan.

    Borrowers will also have the flexibility to choose when and how often they want to make payments on the second lien loan, which must be paid in full by the end of the loan term, or if the first lien loan is paid off.

  13. D-FENS says:

    I’ve just been picking it up and putting the trash on their side of the property line…I’ll try speaking to her first before I go any further with it…

    Venting here helps me a bit too…thanks for listening

  14. 3b says:

    D Fens: 0 down, de ja vu! At least some, will default, then there will be cries of they did not know, and they were taken advantage of, and they need to be bailed out. And, of course they will.

  15. Grim says:

    Tree guys made quick work of the mess.

    Behemoth tree eating machine. They don’t even climb trees anymore. Cut huge sections and load them right into the grinder.

    Guy said it’ll take nearly 3 foot diameter.

  16. 3b says:

    Grim: How do they get the top sections down without climbing?

  17. Juice Box says:

    How much it setting you back for one as you said large tree?

    There is a massive tree at my mother house, and American elm it has to be near 80 ft tall and I think it needs to come down, so need a quote. House is in Bergen County.

  18. 3b says:

    Juice: You might check with Kevin Downes tree service out of Hawthorne. He was grand Marshall a few years ago of Bergenfield parade. Your Mom being a member of Bergen Irish, she might get a break.

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