From Marketwatch:
When will home prices go down? Six economists weigh in.
“The U.S. housing shortage is still lingering based on our estimate of 4.5 million additional housing units that are required to make up for the gaps accumulated from population growth in the last decade,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. “Therefore, home-price declines appear unlikely.”
To be sure, there are a few markets — such as Austin, Texas, and Boise, Idaho — where home prices have declined, Yun said. In May, home prices in Austin were down 2.5% from the same month a year earlier, according to data from the American Enterprise Institute, the lowest among the 60 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S.
“However, with rapid job growth, the temporary improved housing affordability will be short-lived before prices are pushed up to new highs,” Yun added.
…
“Home prices are unlikely to fall because of continued demographic tailwinds. There are still plenty of millennials looking to get into the housing market,” said Chen Zhao, head of economic research at Redfin.
“However, with affordability being historically bad, price growth could slow in the coming quarters,” Zhao added. “The key piece of uncertainty is whether mortgage rates will fall as expected, and what will happen to prices when that happens.”
…
Inventory is the most important piece of the housing puzzle, said Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research at ICE Mortgage Technology.
“When it comes to home prices today, it’s all about inventory,” Walden said. “In markets where prices have softened at various points over the past two years, the common denominator has been inventory returning to or near prepandemic averages.”
…
To be sure, home prices could crash — but only in the event of an economic catastrophe, said Selma Hepp, chief economist at the real-estate-data company CoreLogic.
“For home prices to fall, there would need to be a significant shock to the U.S. economy that would lead to massive job losses,” she said. “Still, as we saw during the pandemic, the continued imbalance between pent-up demand and lack of supply suggests that home prices have a floor and are unlikely to fall notably.”
Frist
Fed destroyed the housing market.
Lawrence Yun did not hear the Fed Govenor jawboning about actually increasing rates more?
“Michelle Bowman, one of the Fed’s governors and a voter on its rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said she remained “willing to raise” borrowing costs again “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse”.
https://www.ft.com/content/63e76b93-7b48-4a79-91fb-7b894968c3bb
Good example of food inflation?
https://twitter.com/TONYxTWO/status/1805994090942583062
Juice: For tree guys, you might want to try Kevin Downes out of Hawthorne. He was a grand Marshall for Bergenfield parade a few years ago. Your Mom might even know him, and maybe he will give her a break on cost.
Juice: No, the cape in Fairlawn is going to be 700k and that’s it. Prices are never coming down, and people want houses even if they don’t want children.
Mother in Lakewood NJ charged with killing her two children.
The specific house in the specific town that you covet? That will probably not come down much. The house on a corner of a busy street in a town with mediocre schools, that home price will probably fall within your reach.
Vanguard reports Hardship withdrawals from 401k accounts are rising dramatically,in an effort by people to save their homes from foreclosure.
3b,
Have any idea of the vintage of homebuyers this would be for?
Recent ones who YOLO’d a house they couldn’t afford from the start?
No One: I don’t know, but I would imagine a good chunk of that would be more recent home buyers, ( 3 to 5 years ago), although probably some longer term home owners who took equity loans out for remodeling/ additions new cars. Either way, it’s a worrying sign, and all is not well. Lots of cracks in the economy/ consumers.
I saw a “luxury” house just got built a couple miles from me, looks like a steep hill 50 feet away overlooking busy I-287. Only ultra high prices and low inventory could have inspired the building of a big house in a location that will forever be seeing and hearing traffic whiz by.
No one: There will come a time when location matters again. Living on the side of a highway is awful, no rationalizing it.
Seems like every decent size chunk of land in my area along a highway is getting luxury apartments or attached houses/townhouses for rent built on them. And there are several single house rental communities in my area. Houses the size of a 2 bedroom apartment and you can stick your arm out the window and shake hands with your neighbor in their house.
We need more ““accessory dwelling units”….only a few towns allow them.
I have room out back…
Juice: Why are they still building all these public storage spaces for people to pay to store crap they don’t need. There are 3 more just bring finished in Paramus/ Maywood. They are all over the place in Bergen Co.
Yup..
Bottom line: just like last recession in housing, the nice desirable houses do not go for sale. If they do, they want top dollar.
No One says:
June 27, 2024 at 10:00 am
The specific house in the specific town that you covet? That will probably not come down much. The house on a corner of a busy street in a town with mediocre schools, that home price will probably fall within your reach.
3b – garage overflow? People are pack rats.
BTW we use our garages every day for our cars, unlike neighbors who filled their garages with useless junk.
Juice: Why are they still building all these public storage spaces for people to pay to store crap they don’t need.
Same business model as gyms, they are predicated on people signing up, forgetting about it, and continuing to pay because the cancellation is a headache.
This is why they have these absurdly cheap teasers – 3 months for $11, which then escalates to $250 a month, three month advance notification, need to cancel by certified letter, etc etc.
Grim/ Juice: It’s such a waste. I can’t believe people will drop 250 a month or more to pay for these units, and then some not cancel because it’s a hassle??? 250. 00 a month is a hassle to cancel so they just keep paying it? That’s insane. Americans have too much crap.
So Phil got a meeting set up to diagnose the systemic problems leading to all of the train delays, and mayor Pete is his counterpart. Have I mentioned this is a banana republic.
The narrative about the vegetables executive order reducing the criminal invasion is entirely fake. The reduced invasion has to do with blinken and mayorkas going to Mexico and Central America at the start of the year. The meaningless executive order is window dressing now that the flow has slowed How stupid do they think we are. Pretty stupid I guess.
That’s insane. Americans have too much crap.
I’d argue that in most every case, the shit being stored is worth less than what someone will outlay for the unit.
Grim: Agreed.
“Why are they still building all these public storage spaces for people to pay to store crap they don’t need.”
A lot of new rental units being built in NJ (most without garages) and those people need somwhere to store their stuff.
As to that stuff being “crap they don’t need”, well, when you don’t spend your weekends doing lawn maintenance or deck repairs or unclogging drains or trimming the hedges or replacing the furnace… you have a lot of time to “play”, and those toys (in my case 4 canoes, 2 bikes and a sailboat) all need a place to live.
My rental comes with a garage (my car has never been in it), but otherwise I’d have to rent some storage space too.
A lot of us renters think that big front lawns fall into the category of “crap you don’t need”. ;)
grim says:
June 27, 2024 at 3:22 pm
“…the shit being stored is worth less than what someone will outlay for the unit.”
We’re all hoarders to one extent or another. I own a half acre of desert scrub outside Deming, New Mexico (‘gift’ years ago from elderly uncle). I pay $42/year in tax, and a land buyer in Texas keeps offering $400 to take it off my hands; why don’t I sell???
Why Clutter Is Ruining Your Life:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/12-surprising-ways-clutter-is-ruining-your-life-infographic_b_59160aace4b02d6199b2eee5
Small: Because for only 42 bucks a year you get to say I own a patch of desert in New Mexico. That is a cool conversation piece right there. As oppressed to paying 250 a month to store a Lazy Boy Chair, a cracked surf board, old fishing gear, various bric s brac and unused holiday decorations and other crap.
I’d farm peyote.
“I own a half acre of desert scrub outside Deming, New Mexico”
That’s only 30 miles from Mexico. When you retire you should move down there and help defend the border. ;)
Speaking of defending the border. I heard a pretty interesting interview from an international economist. He said the only reason the US is winning the war on inflation is due to our immigration policy. It’s why we came out of the Covid period relatively unscathed while the rest of the world is not doing so well. Just something to think about. The speaker worked a decade at Morgan Stanley before joining the United Nations (I think that’s where he is now). So no real agenda.
Lib: I think there would have to be more research on that before determining how true it is. How much are states spending on caring for illegal migrants vs how much they are contributing. Even if it’s true and I am skeptical, I am sure it’s no consolation to the people whose lives have been destroyed by illegal migrants who killed family members. The 12 year old girl in Texas had her hands tied behind her back while being repeatedly raped and then killed. One can only try and imagine the horror that child went through before her death.
“Speaking of defending the border. I heard a pretty interesting interview from an international economist. He said the only reason the US is winning the war on inflation is due to our immigration policy. It’s why we came out of the Covid period relatively unscathed while the rest of the world is not doing so well.”
The majority of economists will tell you that immigration is a big positive for the economy. More workers = bigger economy and more economic growth.
I’m confused, Europe isn’t experiencing mass immigration?
“The 12 year old girl in Texas had her hands tied behind her back while being repeatedly raped and then killed. One can only try and imagine the horror that child went through before her death.”
Native born white guys are much more likely to commit crimes like that!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_serial_killers_in_the_United_States
OC1: Why am I not surprised you deflect. It’s typical. No one is arguing we don’t have our own home grown, native born killers, rapists, etc. The point is these were illegal migrants and should not have been here in the first place. The rest is all BS. Of course, it’s someone else’s child, or mother, or family member so who cares. You should send the research to the dead child’s family. I am sure they will take great consolation in it.
Libturd says:
June 27, 2024 at 4:58 pm
Speaking of defending the border. I heard a pretty interesting interview from an international economist. He said the only reason the US is winning the war on inflation is due to our immigration policy.
That is so laughable, I just can’t stop. Thirty ( 30%) food inflation what are we winning?? American families are feeling the pinch, Joe has fckd the country…. but he is so out of it that he blames it on the Republicans and the press runs with it.
But that is not as good as your last crap story:
Libturd says:
June 18, 2024 at 7:43 pm
When there is a labor shortage due to the lack of us having kids, you will thank Libturd and his support of legal immigration. Heck, it’s how we all got here. We are no different than the current crop.
Again, time will tell
I guess your OK with raping and killing of women and that is sad . One death is one too many but there have been multiple.
The only problem is children getting raped by illegals, then killed in Texas, raped in central park another illegal, rape and murdered in Jersey City another illegal, mother of 5 killed in Maryland another illegal, two workers at Texas chik filet killed by an illegal. Also 400 members of ISIS have found their way here and the whereabouts of 250 of them are unknown. Joe just lets millions of non vetted people in to our country, and no one knows what these people have done. Granted I am sure there are many good people but we already know a lot of bad eggs have come in….and they are not done with their crime sprees. Today a 15 year old was raped in NY state, police caught the illegal. Who can forget Laken Riley murdered in Georgia after being raped, 22 years old of course by another illegal. The list is much longer but time has shown just how poor Joes immigration policies has been and we are FAR from the end. Any body supporting open borders is just plain dumb.
“OC1: Why am I not surprised you deflect”
3b why am am not surprised that you pick an outlier to support your argument. Yes that crime was horrendous, but it does not reflect the community as a whole, in fact the opposite is true.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2014704117
Fab: Typical for you too. They were illegal migrants that is a fact. They killed a 12 year old child. That is a fact. If they had not been allowed into the country the child would be alive. That is a fact. Legal immigration is fine, and what built this country in the past. My parents were immigrants they followed the process and entered the country legally. My Father was drafted 9 months after arriving. I don’t support open borders with thousands arriving unvetted, no questions asked. This child a citizen is dead because 2 people who have no legal right to be here killed her. That is a fact. But, not your child or Mother, or family member, and didn’t happen in our nice towns. So give a big shrug and say yeah it’s sad, but let’s just pretend the border is fine and continue to allow thousands in and hope for the best.
Ok Jim, I’ll go slow and steady here. There is no such thing as “Food Inflation”. The inflation calculation specifically excludes Food and Gas. Consumer Price Index is a better measurement as it does include food, but that index has its issues.
Why have prices gone up? Well here are some reasons we can discuss. Bird Flu hit the chicken population so egg prices went up. Farmers could not get seasonal workers to come over the border to pick crops so they rotted in the field. Drought hit places like Spain and Italy so the Olive crop was ruined so the price shot up. It also hit the corn yields here in the US. Add in losing the Ukraine Wheat and corn production and yes prices are going up.
Yes, labor costs have gone up as have transportation costs.
Here Maine, standard lobster roll is up to 30 dollars now. Was 20 3 years ago
3b ,
Go google Donald Trump’s spiritual advisor Robert Morris and come back to me.
Fab: Again, you deflect and bring up an American born pastor who admitted to having sex with a 12 year old girl, and somehow equate that with the two illegal migrants who killed a 12 year old girl. As previously noted the fact we have native born killers and rapists. The two that raped and murdered the 12 year old child were illegal; it really is that simple as much as you twist it like a pretzel into something else. But, not your child, your Mother, or family member. Just shrug your shoulders and bring up Trump. Deflection indeed.
“But, not your child, your Mother, or family member. ”
Exactly my point. In my world Illegal Migrants are not the biggest threat to my kids. In my Tony neighborhood. I would expect that as 90% of the neighbors have a lawn service and outsource everything that requires a hammer to hit a nail, the number of Illegal migrants in my neighborhood on any given day is probably in the triple digits. I am less worried about them that the actual occupiers of the houses.
The biggest threat to kids in the US is people they know. But hey, keep banging on that Boogeyman.
There are lots of good reasons to stop illegal immigration.
Reducing crime isn’t one of them.
But there is also a counterfactual- some of those illegal immigrants are escaping dangerous situations in their own countries, and some of them will be murdered if they are sent back, or even forced to stay in Mexico (a much more dangerous place than the US).
Are those lost lives less valuable than the 12 yo girl you brought up?
Or suppose the guy who murdered that 12 yo was here legally on a tourist visa- would that be justification for ending tourist visas?
I’ll say it again- there are lots of good reasons to stop illegal immigration. Reducing crime isn’t one of them.
And as I think JJ said,
“If the worst thing that they are doing is taking a Sh1t on my Lawn, I’m ok with that!”
Fab: And for the 12 year old girl and her family, the bogeymen were all to real. But, that did not have to be the case. But hey, not your child, mother, or family member. You don’t need to worry about such things. I have to say there is something very cold and callous in that statement.
LOL, Biden sounds like my fraternity cokehead.
Biden takes the stage, a ghastly shade of pale.
His voice is fragile and quiet. Oh Lordy.
Oc1: Are you seriously comparing tourist visas to illegal immigration?? Really? And are you saying that 12 year old child’s life was somehow less valuable then the some people you reference that might be in danger but you really don’t know how many and you certainly don’t know who they are. I think you should mention that statement to the 12 year old child’s family. Tell them her life was no more valuable then the lives of people you believe are in danger but have no idea who they are.
What a cold/ indifference statement on your part. I have to say some of you guys that consider yourselves Liberal are very cold , callous, and indifferent. It’s sad, but again not your child, mother or family member.
At that 12 yo with a pastor, how real was that bogeyman. “your child, mother, or family” which one scares you. Because that one scares me.
Are you seriously comparing tourist visas to illegal immigration??
How many of your Irish relatives came over on a tourist visa and stayed and were illegal?
Biden looks like Crap, but Donnie is on full BS.
Donnies is a jughead. White college educated women will run him out on a rail.
““The 12 year old girl in Texas had her hands tied behind her back while being repeatedly raped and then killed. One can only try and imagine the horror that child went through before her death.
Native born white guys are much more likely to commit crimes like that!”
Probably the coldest comment I’ve seen in nearly two decades here.
Made so much worse but the repeated attempted defense of it.
Somebody’s twelve year old daughter was tied, raped, and killed, asshole.
Fab: I think you need to reread Oc1 statement on the use of tourist visas vs illegal immigration. As to your question, none of my relatives over stayed their tourist visas.
Newsflash Donald Trump beats up an old man.
Juice: It’s like watching Beavis and Butthead. Trump is in typical form, does not answer any of the questions. Biden looks lost, thin voice, no real record to defend either. What a sad choice for President.
3B – Beavis and Butthead?
Nice pull I love Mike Judge…….
BTW – Covid seems the be a radioactive topic tonight…
Joe crawling to the finish line. Oofa.
Joe might hafta go bye bye.
Nah is anyone stayed awake for Joe’s 10 :30 pm line it was pretty good .
Juice: He is fading again.
CNN – tossing Biden under the bus..
This is bad….
CNN is destroying Biden, why would they do that??
Talking about how incoherent he was, poor answers , gibberesh. Very surprised at Trump keeping his cool.
They may pick somebody else to run for Biden because he is too old , inept, and his job ratings are in the toilet.
3b,so your family members didn’t, but?
https://www.cnn.com/2017/03/16/us/white-irish-undocumented-trnd/index.html
Where do you stand on those?
DNC convention starts August 19th…
Imagine the angst there..
Fabius Maximus says:
June 27, 2024 at 7:54 pm
Ok Jim, I’ll go slow and steady here. There is no such thing as “Food Inflation”. The inflation calculation specifically excludes Food and Gas. Consumer Price Index is a better measurement as it does include food, but that index has its issues.
Gee thanks Fab, but food inflation is a reality to many families in America. The reason food and gas have been taken out of the inflation calculation because it was too volatile, but in reality it affects so many families who continue to struggle financially. Thanks for explaining the CPI to me, it was one of the biggest accomplishments by the Biden administration. Give credit where its due!
Fab – they should be deported too.
I actually have one in my family. Hiding in the boston area his kids are born here as well as his ex-wife.
He can’t go home so he says……..missed every family funeral or event for 25 years now.
Last I checked is now running with those gangs and well
Is not getting any younger.
Ok Jim, we are getting there, so lets correct this,
“Gee thanks Fab, but food is a reality to many families in America”
And the reason it went up is not inflation.
Juice, are they raping 12yo’s?
That’s what 3b seems to be focused on!
Fab: I am not going to go down these rabbit holes and engage in deflection like you so love to do either to be ornery or avoid admitting you might be wrong, which I think in general you might struggle with.
A 12 year old child was raped and murdered by 2 illegal migrants. Had the law been enforced they would not be here and she would be alive. It really is that simple. She was a child. Her family has to live with this for the rest of their lives. This was something that could have been prevented had these two men had not been allowed in. It really is that simple. You appear at best indifferent to this child’s death, and even cold and callous. I have to say it is surprising, or perhaps it’s not. Anyhow, I am done on the subject.
Fab: Now confirmed you are cold and callous.
Juice: I know some undocumented Irish people, most from the north. I think there is around 50k or so in the USA total from north and south. A lot of Irish Americans were involved in efforts to legalize the Irish who were here illegally. Irish American politicians worked tirelessly to get lotteries in place for Visas Morrison and Donnelly visas. They owe these people a big debt of gratitude.
If CNN is talking like that, it was planned ahead of time.
btw…the narrative to replace Biden has officially kickstarted from all the media channels. Oh…but that was just one of those right wing conspiracies months ago.
I am not going to go down these rabbit holes ”
AKA I will not acknowledge that my diaspora has a significant population in the US that are illegal. They should not be part of this discussion because they are …
Biden is done and Trump lies and ddn’t answer any questions. That was one hell of a debate.
“Oc1: Are you seriously comparing tourist visas to illegal immigration?? Really?”
Doesn’t answer my question.
“And are you saying that 12 year old child’s life was somehow less valuable then the some people you reference that might be in danger but you really don’t know how many and you certainly don’t know who they are.”
If I wanted to say that I would have said it.
“I think you should mention that statement to the 12 year old child’s family. Tell them her life was no more valuable then the lives of people you believe are in danger but have no idea who they are.
What a cold/ indifference statement on your part. I have to say some of you guys that consider yourselves Liberal are very cold , callous, and indifferent. It’s sad, but again not your child, mother or family member.”
In recent years, about 2,000 children per year have been murdered in the US (out of about 22,000 total murders). Some were more horrific than others, but every one of those was also a tragedy. Every one of those 2,000 children had a mother, a father, siblings, relatives…
Haven’t seen much outrage here over any of those murders – you cold, callous indifferent people!
But then again, most of those murders weren’t commited by the “demon dejure” (illegal immigrants) and most of the victims didn’t get extensive press coverage (for whatever reason).
Fact is, the US murder rate has been dropping over the past several years while the number of illegal immigrants entering the country has surged. And every statistic we have shows that illegal immigrants are less likely to commit crime than the native born.
So forgive me if I refuse to demonize an entire class of people based on the actions (however heinous) of a few.
Greetings from some island in the south Agean sea. Where it is perpetually 85F under clear skies, turquoise waters, and a steady cooling Meltemi winds blow around the clock.
This is your reminder that life happens everywhere.
DNC has just over a month. Aug. 7 is the deadline for the roll call vote before the convention. I doubt they will replace Sleepy Joe.
Jon Stewart said last night Biden had ‘resting 25th Amendment face’ at debate, and also said ““This cannot be real life. It just can’t,” he said.”
Seems despair is now settling in.
Check your dates on DNC. No time here but iirc the DNC moved the actual vote to a virtual vote next month because some red state governor (OH?) flipped the Dems the bird by not making a normal concession regarding the ballot. I believe that was part of the reason this debate took place so early, ie to be before the actual virtual nomination coming soon.