From Bankrate:
Is the housing market going to crash? What the experts are saying
The U.S. housing market had finally started slowing in late 2022, and home prices seemed poised for a correction. But a strange thing happened on the way to the housing market crash: Home values started rising again. So much for the now-quaint notion that the post-pandemic “housing recession” would reverse some of the outsized price gains in homes.
In another reflection of ongoing increases, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price indexfor August was up 4.2 percent from a year earlier, another all-time high.
Despite prices being high, though, the volume of home sales has plunged, and inventories are still too low to meet demand. Homeowners who locked in 3 percent mortgage rates several years ago are declining to sell — and who can blame them, with current rates more than double that? — so the supply of homes for sale is staying tight. As a result, any correction will be nothing like the utter collapse of property prices during the Great Recession, when some housing markets experienced a 50 percent cratering of values.
“Even with the rapid price appreciation over the last few years, the likelihood of a market crash is minimal,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a November 2024 statement. “Distressed property sales and the number of people defaulting on mortgage payments are both at historic lows.”
…
The main driver of record home prices is a one-two punch straight from Econ 101 — a lack of housing supply coupled with strong demand. Inventories have been growing but remain frustratingly tight, with NAR’s September data showing a 4.3-month supply. Not even high mortgage rates have slowed price appreciation. For instance, in October 2023, home values held steady even as mortgage rates soared to 8 percent, their highest level in more than 23 years.
They have since dipped, but not enough to make a meaningful difference (despite the Fed’s rate cuts). The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in Bankrate’s weekly survey released Nov. 6 was 7.0 percent.
“You’re not going to see house prices decline,” says Rick Arvielo, head of mortgage firm New American Funding. “There’s just not enough inventory.”
Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, agrees. “We’re not in that space where things are suddenly going to be more affordable,” she says.
Numero uno.
Market is crazy, good !
Lib,
Wake me up when Trump deports the first immigrant.
Tidbits from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Repatriation:
During the great depression, a large number of Mexicans were deported. Estimates of how many were repatriated, deported, or expelled range from 300,000 to 2 million (of which 40–60% were citizens of the United States, overwhelmingly children).
…
Repatriation is not widely discussed in U.S. history textbooks. In a 2006 survey of the nine most commonly used American history textbooks in the United States, four did not mention the topic, and only one devoted more than half a page to the topic. In total, they devoted four pages to the repatriation.
Um? George Michael song?
SomeOne says:
November 11, 2024 at 8:06 am
Lib,
Wake me up when Trump deports the first immigrant.
US stock futures climbed on Monday, pointing to a return to the roaring post-election rally as investors looked ahead to a fresh reading on inflation.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) led the way higher, up roughly 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) moved up 0.3%. Both indexes are coming off their best week of the year, capped by record highs. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) added about 0.3%.
Stock markets are poised to open on Veterans Day at all-time highs thanks in large part to expectations for lower corporate taxes and deregulation from President-elect Donald Trump. Spirits are also buoyant after the Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate cut, though doubts about the rally’s staying power are starting to emerge.
Ride the wave. As for housing, nothing changes until/unless mortgage rates drop noticeably. I don’t know what that level is but until then, the faucet will continue to flow at a trickle.
When we talk about deportation of mexicans, we should also understand that Texas and large parts of the south were originally part of Mexico before the Alamo war. There are generations who never moved but part of America, wjo now get discriminated against. And Trump and Ted Cruz get elected because of it. How wonderful!
Can’t wait for Trump to lower prices on my cheap walmart stuff and housing.
Can’t wait for Trump to lower prices on my cheap walmart stuff and housing.
The modern democrat wouldn’t be caught dead in Walmart, they mingle with the high earners from top colleges, sporting advanced degrees. Ask ‘Very Stable Genius’, he will tell you. His suits and shoes run four figures. Only the best.
I think Bill Burr goes on SNL just so he can have hair again.
Funny stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2CCOCkKzpI
I thought Trump wore the best and most exclusive suit and tie. And what does Bernie wear?
Where do you get your high quality kool-aid from Eddie?
I agree that inflation was the killer for the Dems. Though, I don’t think they created it. Nor do any economists. But Trump said it, over and over and over, so people believe it. I would like to know what Trump plans to do to lower food prices.
The federal reserve creates inflation. The government can only alleviate it by not pursuing policies that hinder the supply of goods/services. As far as denial, they didn’t create it, but they sure as hell tried pretend it wasn’t a problem or in some cases, it wasn’t real.
And now, a message from our vice president:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzITUeUqXeE
BRT I am wondering what your thoughts are on the Fed Dept of Ed.
I think that’s one area that we might agree upon.
There was a post-covid surge in inflation around the world. (US inflation has been in the middle of the pack.)
As a result we have seen the “in party” (left and right) losing elections everywhere. Inflation has driven a real “throw the bums out” mentality around the world, and the Dem’s had to face those headwinds just like every other party in power.
People really hate inflation.
Now in the US, wage increases lagged inflation when it started, but since then they’ve caught up and exceeded inflation. So real wages in the US are now higher than pre-covid.
This is not in dispute. Just look at the fed charts on real incomes.
But people don’t vote based on Fed charts. They vote based on vibes.
And if you want to win elections you have to address those vibes- and the Dems failed to do that.
BTW, while US inflation was middle of the pack, we have led the world in economic growth post covid.
With 2.2% inflation, 4.1% unemployment, and real GDP growth almost 3%, Trump has inherited the strongest US economy in decades.
Ex, they DOE has done zero for me my entire career. They are useless. I set my own standards.
Lib, SoFi taking off.
11:30 I tend to agree.
Ex, especially in NJDOE. They just stick a political appointee in who knows nothing about education. The state has consistently changed the “standards” and I always pick through them and they are filled with errors. That being said, my wife does alignment to standards for a major online company, California’s science standards were written beautifully. They are comprehensive, logical, and make sense. They gave a good blueprint for any teacher new to the subject on what they have to do and to what depth.
11:39 people are panicking that elimination of the DOE will affect fair education for underprivileged kids. To which I say that title 1 is a fallacy. No one on Reddit wanted to hear that.
BRT,
Yes on SOFI. I am making a lot of money on this trade. They should benefit greatly from the end of the government paying off of student loans. It’s simply an amazing product anyhow.
My point is money is money and “if” it’s being spent on an organization that is superfluous at the Federal level. Visa Vis all of the States handling the money for Education, to my knowledge, and the States also on the hook for pensions. Couple that with lower birthrates and schools will begin to consolidate and close. Money will be tight. Fewer Tax dollars for the classroom as well, If all of th Cash goes to a bureaucrat at the Federal level.
Stephen Miller will now frame immigration policy.
Mass deportations, muslim ban will be back. Oh wait, it won’t affect you.
Waiting for the knock on my door for my rants here.
“First they came for the socialists…”
1:43 Grim would never give us up!! I think what is interesting is how complex some of these issues are and the ripple effect. As far as migrants? The Farmers here that voted red are now going to be out of luck in terms of cheap labor. It expected they’ll pay “Billions” more Statewide if they follow through with deportations.
Ex, just came back from a trip to Geeorgia and South Carolina. There were help wanted signs everywhere. Some even had the pay listed. One fast food joint was advertising $9 to $11 and hour for full time openers and closers. When these positions won’t fill at $9 to $11 with open borders. What do you think they will have to pay to get the Kid Rock lovers to work those jobs. Yup, prices will be going up. Same at the farm and in the supermarkets. Throw in the tariffs and it’s a recipe for disaster.
As for the dismantling of the DOE, it’s all a ploy to get more vouchers into the hands of rich people who pay a ton for their kid’s prep school tuitions. I agree, the government is wholly inefficient and government workers, with their union protections, tend to be the most unskilled and best paid morons amongst us.
It will be interesting to see how the working class reacts in four years when they don’ty have health care, their schools are gutted and everything costs way more than today. Maybe they will finally realize that Trump is nothing like them. All the clues are there. But pass, pass, pass.
2:25 ooof.
The democrats are already talking about their platform in four years from now. Don’t they realize democracy has ended? Opera Winfry said we’ll never be able to vote again.
… and Tom Homan will restart separating kids from their parents as an effective strategy against immigration. The Elian Gonzales episode will be nothing compared to what’s coming down the pipe
White Trash is more worried about the Dems future strategy than the immediate destruction of the American experiment.
… and Tom Homan will restart separating kids from their parents as an effective strategy against immigration.
Guys in bandanas, black masks and full metal jackets will be standing behind the kids as the kids recite extreme right propaganda while being filmed.
Should be fun to watch.
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard”.
– H.L. Mencken
Libturd says:
November 11, 2024 at 3:07 pm
“Should be fun to watch.”
You TDS sufferers thought it was fun watching SlowJoe hustled away from crowds by the Easter Bunny, Afghan allies falling off the landing gear of C17 cargo planes as we left them behind, and Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment complexes here in the USA. So I suspect you won’t find it fun to watch good, strong, clear-eyed governance.
RentL0rd says:
November 11, 2024 at 2:56 pm
“Tom Homan will restart separating kids…”
Sour grapes and hysterics — very unbecoming of a grown man. I suggest putting on your pink pussyhat and screaming at the sky — it’ll make you feel better.
It will be interesting to see how the working class reacts in four years when they don’ty have health care
You know a lot of people who have ACA plans don’t even know it, because they buy their insurance off of state exchanges, which have names like Kentucky’s “Kynect Health Coverage”.
I think they are in for some surprises.
Not to mention all the rural hospitals that rely on medicaid patients to stay open…
re Farmers and cheap labor.
There are plenty of people who won’t do that kind of hard work no matter the price offered.
Never heard of the H2-A visas? There are about 370,000 agricultural workers here now on those visas, of which the majority of H-2A visa holders are from Mexico and work on farms in California.
Here is a round up of some of the left conspiracy stories, some even being floated by the MSM and our politicians.
So far I have heard from the Washington Post that Trump made a call to Putin last Thursday and threated Russia if they don’t end the war in Ukraine.
Then there is everyone on the left favorite repost that Elon Musk’s satellites hacked the election.
Next up is no more people to work the farms, we are going to starve!!
Oh and Trump’s gestapo is going to of course “target” people for re-education or jail based upon their political beliefs. Some of the nutters out there are saying Gitmo type camps, enemy of the state no trials kind of stuff.
Bernie is wrong….about everything in regards to the Democratic Party and why they got beaten like a red headed step child.
Chuck Schumer says he will get “two moderate republicans”, so he still gets to be Senate leader.
More to come on the stages…denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance.
We already witnessed four years of Trump leadership. Maybe we’ll get lucky and he’ll have a stroke.
Fact is most farms are now corporate farms. Cheap farm workers allowed them not to invest in technology. But most low birth/hi tech countries like Japan and many in Europe have replaced people with machinery.
The LA Times had an article about family own farms, more than a few owned by the same family for centuries, in one case I remember over 400yrs. They are original Hispanos settlers of New Mexico and South Colorado.
The farmers were complaining about lack of legal/illegal labor even with what they consider higher pay, which is not competitive relative to everywhere else for legal/illegal. Because they had done it the same way based on cheap labor for centuries, they don’t see any other options outside of “legalized imported cheap labor”, when they need to upgrade technologically.
SmallGov, if we are going to have an argument, I would expect you to man up and talk facts instead of resorting to insults at the drop of a hat.
Everything I said is based on facts – that unfortunately don’t seem to matter.
Juice,
He grabs ’em buy the pussy and blows his microphone. Nearly everything he does ends up in failure, like his first term. It’s going to be fun to sit back and watch him screw those who fell for his bullshit. As long as he doesn’t take away the provisions in the ACA that force insurance companies to consider mental illness an illness and he doesn’t take away insurance for those with preexisting conditions, I’ll be fine. Heck, reading his economic moves is wonderful for smart stockpickers like me. These upcoming four years should provide me with a very rich retirement. I feel for the 99%. Now, not only are they about to get royally screwed, but this time they’ve given their heart and soul to the emperor.
Rent,
Facts simply don’t matter to MAGA. If it sounds good, then it simply must be true. That is their litmus test.
WRT the planned mass deportations:
The big 3 states for illegal immigrants are California (1.9m), Texas (1.6m), and Florida (900k).
I wonder what states they’ll target first- blue, red, mix it up?
Either way, I hope we get to see a lot of ice agents swarming onto farms in those red states- the heart of Trump support.
It wouldn’t bother me in the least if Trump repays their support by concentrating deportations in heavily red states and areas.
Voters in those areas want mass deportations the most. I think it’s only fair that we target their areas first.
RentL0rd says:
November 11, 2024 at 3:57 pm
“Everything I said is based on facts”
RentL0rd says:
November 11, 2024 at 3:04 pm
“the immediate destruction of the American experiment.”
So the immediate destruction of the American experiment is a fact? As I said, sour grapes and hysterics.
Where are the white people going to get their Fentanyl? Maybe they’ll legalize it?
Numbers matter, the farm workers are about 2.6 million total.. Roughly 40% are illegal undocumented immigrants who lack work authorization.
Any deportation will be more nuanced. Criminals and others first. Then many more before they start raiding farms to get maybe only 1/10th of the illegal undocumented immigrants here now.
I hedge my personal portfolio so it is serially uncorrelated with how I generate fees.
I do not believe in crypto in general, but it is restricted by Gensler from advisory accounts. As a result, I overloaded with it since the ETF were introduced earlier this year. Holy fuck….
Here is a round up of some of the left conspiracy stories, some even being floated by the MSM and our politicians.
Have Biden or Harris been floating them?
>> So the immediate destruction of the American experiment is a fact? As I said, sour grapes and hysterics.
So, SmallGov, what is your idea of the American Experiment? Do you even know what that is – other than making a quick buck and guns for all?
I like to take Stephen Miller and Tom Homan at face value for what they have said and did in the past. That is against the values of this country – belief in individual rights, being the main one.
Read somewhere that about 8% of the workforce in Florida are illegal immigrants. Maybe start there? They can drop that unemployment rate down to -5%! Should work out well for everyone.
Played a one of Trumps golf courses this year, didn’t see any Pineys on the maintenance staff. Maybe check Mar a Lago?
Social media. Social media. Social media.
Our overlords used to control the means of how information was disseminated in this country to the mouth-breathing masses. For better of worse, information was vetted with due reasonable care.
With the advent of social media, this went right out the window. I believe this is why you saw the sharpest increase to the right in under 30s’s.
Now that foreign governments are able to disseminate propaganda just as easily as domestic actors, there is no going back. You can target and exploit those who are least able to defend against what are effectively psy-ops.
If I am getting ads for sht I googled just recently, you can bet Bubba Muffler is getting absolutely bombarded with the slickest propaganda foreign governments can afford.
Any deportation will be more nuanced. Criminals and others first.
We’ve already been targeting criminals for decades. Obama deported a helluva lot more than Trump did when he was president.
Then many more before they start raiding farms to get maybe only 1/10th of the illegal undocumented immigrants here now.
But JD Vance said that illegals are the reason houses cost so much. Doesn’t seem like deporting just 1/10 of them is going to do much in that regard.
OC1,
But JD Vance said that illegals are the reason houses cost so much. Doesn’t seem like deporting just 1/10 of them is going to do much in that regard.
No, he was complaining about the “wrong” kind of “officially legal” but illegal in his mind. Versus similar type of people that are from, say, Ukraine.
Of course, people (including the corporations) buying multiple homes has no impact on the prices.
Boomer, yes and algorithms.
Check out Harare’s take on this
https://youtu.be/q-kUIBoXlVA?si=gDLPuuZXvMC7yd_a
Also, as per this video, Grim can easily win the next Presidency ;-)
3:20 too much . Trump botched his first term,
Good luck with no. 2. Buckle up unless you are wealthy.
Then, you should be OK.
Face it folks. The “D” students won. But Oprah made a million. Isn’t that really all that matters?
D students won indeed. 44 yo with no experience whatsoever will head the EPA.
Because you know, we don’t want a science and fact based educated elite
They burned $1,000,000,000 for that epic shit show and every celebrity that “campaigned” for her demanded to get paid. Meanwhile, Trump ran a brilliant campaign resulting in the biggest win in 40 years. Greatest comeback in political history.
You gotta be riding high! Let’s hope he doesn’t completely destroy the Country.
RentL0rd says:
November 11, 2024 at 6:19 pm
“no experience whatsoever will head the EPA. Because you know, we don’t want a science and fact based educated elite”
You mean like the Dem DEI hire that currently heads the EPA; the guy who’s specialty is addressing environmental racism?
You’re new Sec Of State. https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1746649076282576932
Donnie is screaming for Senate Recess appointments. With a 53-47 advantage, he knows he is putting up candidates that cant even clear that bar.
SmallGov, labels aside, this is Regan, the current EPA head:
Regan attended North Carolina A&T State University, where he received a Bachelor of Science degree in earth and environmental science. He then attended George Washington University in Washington, D.C., where he received a Master of Public Administration.
Now tell me how this compares to the new guy – and if you believe in merit, tell me how the new guy has more merit than this guy to head the EPA
The talk of deportation must have slowed down the migration flows. So it works.
There will be 10-20% already planning to return to their countries not to take the risk of getting misery here. I’d say they are going to cancel some of living conditions for illegals (banking limits, ICE checkups).
In TX/FL 20-30% of illegals should be working for construction. So for hurricane repair, it will delay 1-2 years if deportation kicks off. Perhaps it would be the best, so that our own kids can work perhaps instead of swiping TicTocs, or checking their insta pages.
Perhaps it would be the best, so that our own kids can work perhaps instead of swiping TicTocs, or checking their insta pages.
Amen here. From the age of 16 to 25, I did nearly every “Dirty Jobs” job Mike Rowe presented on his show. I can’t even begin. So, our kids need to check their privilege and get down to it.
It is not either or.
Kids are smart – they know they can never afford to buy a home or raise a family with hourly labor – so they want to resort to quick bucks like being a tiktok influencer. The jobs that the immigrants are taking on, are not sustainable for your kids. So, today’s kids have all but given up on the older generation – who have borrowed endlessly with low interest rates, with the deficit in trillions and endless printing, we have literally borrowed money from our kids and giving them begging bowls.
So, no, it’s not the immigrant’s fault but that of our (40+) generation. But of course, we need a scapegoat, so it’s the poor migrant’s fault.
And the dirty job you talk about – has all been commoditized and packed into derivatives and sold on the stock market. So, that’s gone. Harris – successful or not, had a good slogan. We are not going back. We can’t.
But hey, Obama sold on hope and Orangeman sold on bitching.