It’s just a jump to the left, and then a step to the right.

From the Record:

North Jersey home values trapped in a time warp

In the overheated housing market of 2005, Barbara O’Leary and Dennis Poletto bought a Bergenfield colonial for $440,000 — just five years after the previous owner had paid $175,000.

Now, they’d like to downsize into a place with no stairs. But they feel they can’t move, because real estate agents have told them their home would probably sell for about $330,000.

“Nobody expected the world to fall down and the housing market to fall through, and that’s where we stand now,” said O’Leary, 77, a retired executive secretary.

The couple’s experience is common across North Jersey, especially in lower-priced housing markets. Ten years after home prices peaked — before tumbling into the worst downturn in decades — most homes are still worth less than they were in mid-2006. One reason: New Jersey leads the nation in foreclosure starts, as the state catches up on a backlog of distressed properties.

An analysis by The Record found that last year, the median home price in Bergen County ticked up only 2.5 percent, to $415,000; it remains 13 percent behind its peak during the housing boom. In Passaic County, the median was unchanged, at $285,000 — 25 percent off its peak.

The Record’s analysis also found a sharp contrast between North Jersey’s struggles to regain home values and far more robust gains in other metro areas around the country — particularly in the South and West — where stronger job and population growth have helped fuel a rising real estate market. The area’s woes also stand out in comparison to Manhattan and Brooklyn, where home prices have shot past their housing-boom highs by 44 percent to 55 percent.

There are some positive signs in New Jersey, analysts say: New Jersey employers are creating jobs at a more lively pace. Lenders are whittling down a backlog of homes destined for foreclosure. Mortgage rates remain low. And rising rents may persuade more young households to make the leap into homeownership. As long as the economy can stay out of recession, analysts say, demand for homes should support rising prices.

But as 2016 began, median home values in North Jersey were about where they were in late 2003 or early 2004, meaning that the majority of homeowners who bought in the last 12 or 13 years have, at best, broken even. The pace of sales has been dampened because many homeowners — like O’Leary and Poletto — are reluctant to sell at current prices. The number of sales is down about 37 percent from the peak in Bergen County, to about 8,900 last year, and down about 47 percent in Passaic, to about 3,500.

In lower-priced areas like Hackensack, Garfield, Paterson or Passaic — where foreclosures are still an issue — values remain down by more than 25 percent from their peaks in mid-2006, with the typical house or condominium selling for less than $300,000, according to The Record’s analysis.

By contrast, in upper-end towns, prices are typically less than 10 percent below their previous peaks. In a few very pricey communities — such as Ridgewood, Alpine, Ho-Ho-Kus, Demarest and Englewood Cliffs — median prices have rebounded to within 5 percent of their prior peaks, or even surpassed them.

“There’s no question that the lower-income markets fell the hardest during the housing correction and have been the slowest to recover,” said Jeffrey Otteau of Otteau Valuation Group in East Brunswick, a widely followed analyst of the New Jersey housing market.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 54 Comments

Casino!

From the WSJ:

Debate Heats Up Over Gambling for Northern New Jersey

After a bitter battle over a proposed state takeover of Atlantic City, supporters of a gambling expansion are ramping up efforts to convince voters to allow two new casinos in the northern part of New Jersey.

Lawmakers agreed in January to allow a ballot referendum this fall on a proposal to expand casinos into northern New Jersey.

Gambling parlors are restricted to Atlantic City, and some fear the city’s financial problems—and the lengthy, acrimonious debate over how to keep it out of bankruptcy—may have soured the state’s voters on casinos.

“I think it’s going to be extremely difficult to pass gaming in northern New Jersey,” said Senate President Steve Sweeney, a Democrat. “People are seeing what’s going on with gaming and looking at all the problems and reading all the headlines…and saying, ‘Is that really what we want for our town?’ ”

Mr. Sweeney, a co-sponsor of the proposed constitutional amendment to allow gambling in northern New Jersey, said he isn’t “giving up yet” on the Nov. 8 referendum. On Friday, he attended a rally in support of the expansion in Rutherford, near the Meadowlands site where New York real estate mogul Jeffrey Gural wants to build a $1.3 billion casino in partnership with Hard Rock International.

Last week, Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican, signed legislation that gives the city, which opposes a state takeover, until October to balance its budget. Now that the Atlantic City legislative battle is over, “we’ve been able to go on the offensive,” Mr. Gural said.

Mr. Gural said he is planning an aggressive social media and public campaign ahead of the November election, but doesn’t know yet how much he will spend.

A Fitch Ratings analysis released Thursday said the expansion of gambling in northern New Jersey could cause up to four Atlantic City casinos to close.

Mr. Sweeney said he believes northern New Jersey casinos would more likely compete with casinos in New York and Pennsylvania than those in Atlantic City.

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 11 Comments

A Flipper Cooker?

From CNBC:

House flipping heats up, creating ‘home price pressure cooker’

It looks so easy on TV. Buy a bargain-basement house, pull up some nasty carpet, re-tile the bathroom, paint away the wall stains and sell it for a hefty profit.

It’s not, however, all those popular shows that are driving the flipping market today. It’s pure and simple prices — and profit. There is a severe lack of good quality, turn-key homes for sale, and that has created a seller’s market across the nation, even for those reselling homes.

After cooling off in 2014, home flipping is on the rise again — its share of all home sales is up 20 percent in the first three months of this year from the previous quarter and up 3 percent from the same period a year ago, according to a new report from RealtyTrac, which defines a flip as a property bought and resold within a 12-month period.

While flipping today is nothing like it was during the housing boom a decade ago, when investors used risky mortgages, it is reaching new peaks in 7 percent of the nation’s metro markets, including Baltimore, Buffalo, New Orleans, San Diego and even pricey Seattle.

“While responsible home flipping is helpful for a housing market, excessive and irresponsible flipping activity can contribute to a home price pressure cooker that overheats a housing market, and we are starting to see evidence of that pressure cooker environment in a handful of markets,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at RealtyTrac.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Development | 81 Comments

The Love and Hate of Higher Home Prices

From Bloomberg:

Curbing Our Enthusiasm Over Rising Home Prices

Home prices went up in March. That was the news Tuesday from S&P/Case-Shiller; all indications are that April was an up month too, and that this summer’s “selling season” will see continued price increases. Bit by bit, prices are regaining the ground lost during the long collapse from 2006 through early 2012.

In some ways this is great news. It means fewer underwater mortgages. It means better times for lenders, real estate agents and builders. It’s a sign of broader economic health.

Still, if there’s one thing we should have learned from the housing bust, it’s that rising home prices aren’t an unalloyed good. Rapid price increases in the early 2000s directly led to the subsequent crash. Sale prices lost all connection with both rents and incomes; after a certain point they were going up mainly just because they were going up, and buyers feared missing out. That couldn’t go on forever.

Even short of a bubble, though, higher home prices can be problematic. As economist Matthew Rognlie reported in a famous paper last year, the rising value of housing has been a major driver of income inequality in the developed world. It has also, economists Peter Ganong and Daniel Shoag found in another paper, caused incomes to diverge among regions in the U.S. And it doesn’t really take an economics degree to understand that when homes get more expensive, housing becomes less affordable.

With pretty much any other good or service, higher prices are something to complain about. And yes, there are those who complain about high housing prices. But even with the big fall in the home-ownership rate since 2006, 63.5 of American households live in owner-occupied housing. For homeowners, housing isn’t just something one consumes; it’s an investment. And when your investment rises in price, that’s a good thing.

This simple truth explains a lot about public policy surrounding housing in the U.S. The home mortgage interest deduction is a subsidy for the affluent that serves no discernible economic purpose, but is almost impossible to get rid of because removing it would (1) raise taxes for those with mortgages and (2) depress home prices across the board. Zoning and other land-use regulations have been accused (and to some extent convicted) of segregating Americans by income and slowing U.S. economic growth, but it’s almost impossible to get rid of them because they raise the price of existing homes.

So no, I don’t see my nation suddenly embracing the idea that rising home prices are a terrible thing. But it seems like it’s worth the effort to try and at least sow a little doubt.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 43 Comments

March Case Shiller

From the WSJ:

U.S. Home Prices Jump as Supply Pinch Plays Out

Home prices are back to near-record highs across the U.S. amid rising demand and supply constraints, a sign that the lopsided housing-market recovery of the past five years is gaining some strength.

The S&P/Case-Shiller national home-price index, released Tuesday, has clawed its way back to within 4% of its 2006 peak, a steep rise from the near 30% decline at the bottom in 2012.

U.S. new-home sales, meanwhile, in April posted their strongest month in more than eight years, with a nearly 17% jump from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said last week.

After years of volatility, home prices have grown at a rate around 5% since early 2015. That bodes well for sellers heading into the peak home-selling season in May and June but could pose challenges for buyers, especially first-timers who may be priced out of the market as supply, particularly among starter homes, remains thin.

But the rise in prices comes amid lingering weakness in some parts of the market. Overall sales volume and new construction remain well below their pre-crisis peaks. And a broader collection of figures point to an uneven recovery that has seen a flourishing market at the high end, mainly in big U.S. cities, while the lower end lags.

“It’s a great market if you have pristine credit and lots of money,” said Sean Becketti, chief economist at Freddie Mac. “The people starting out who are looking for that first home—they’re having a tougher time.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 60 Comments

Most of NJ still has a long way to go

From the Star Ledger:

N.J. home prices slowly recover from housing bubble – See how your town fared

Slowly but steadily, New Jersey’s housing market is recovering.

The average home sale price in New Jersey in 2015 was $397,279, according to the state Division of Taxation. But most towns throughout New Jersey are still showing average sales below the pre-housing bubble peaks.

“We’re not out of the woods yet,” said Tg Glazer, president of the New Jersey Realtors Association. “There’s still work to be done, but everything is looking very positive and I believe that things will continue to move forward throughout the year.”

Figures from the New Jersey Realtors Association for 2015 show home sales rose 12.3 percent to 93,635 and there were small upticks in the median and average sales prices, according to figures from the New Jersey Realtors Association — a hopeful sign as the spring selling season gets underway.

The 22.7 percent jump in pending sales in December over the year before pointed to 2016 getting off to a strong start. But even as job gains, low mortgage rates and consumer confidence help boost home sales, the number of homes for sale has fallen.

In December, for example, there were 10.6 percent fewer listings — 49,829 compared to 55,720 at the same time in 2014.

“Our economy and housing sector are both better than where they were in the recession, but both have a ways to go before anybody would want to cheer at the pace of activity,” said Patrick O’Keefe, director of economic research at CohnReznick, an accounting and consulting firm.

Even though home prices are showing signs of increasing, there is still a large number of homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages and are reluctant to sell at a loss, he said.

“If they bought from 2005 to 2007, they paid prices that were still well above where the market is today,” O’Keefe said. “As a consequence, if they list their homes for sale, they’re going to get offers well below what they paid and unless it’s a distressed situation where they have to move, it would be irrational to sell the house at the discounts.”

Nationally, prices in the last quarter of 2015 were 0.3 percent higher than in 2007, while New Jersey’s prices were 13.8 percent less. But compared with New Jersey’s own peak in the second quarter of 2006, prices are down 21.3 percent.

“Those price factors are a major reason why the state’s housing recovery has lagged the rest of the country,” O’Keefe said. “Our prices ran up more sharply prior to the housing meltdown and have recovered far more slowly in the aftermath of the meltdown.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 35 Comments

Megahome bubble?

From the NYT:

A Worrisome Pileup of $100 Million Homes

One of the latest symbols of the overinflated luxury housing market is a pink mansion perched above the Mediterranean on the French Riviera.

The 13,000-square-foot property, built and owned by the fashion magnate Pierre Cardin, is composed of giant terra cotta orbs arranged in a sprawling hive. The home’s name befits its price. “Le Palais Bulles,” or “the Bubble Palace,” is being offered for sale at approximately $450 million.

The listing is part of a global pileup of homes listed for $100 million or more. A record 27 properties with nine-figure prices are officially for sale, according to Christie’s International Real Estate. That is up from 19 last year and about a dozen in 2014.

If you add in high-priced “whisper listings” that are offered privately, brokers say the actual number of nine-figure listings worldwide could easily top 40 or 50.

The rise in nine-figure real estate listings comes just as sales of luxury real estate have cooled. Many say the sudden surge in hyperprice homes — often built and sold by speculative investors — is the ultimate bubble signal.

“When you have a record number of homes for sale at a price point of $100 million or more, that tells you these homes aren’t selling,” said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and research firm. “It’s not as deep a market as some might hope.”

“The era of aspirational pricing is over, and I’m not sure it ever really worked,” Mr. Miller said. “These prices get headlines, but the properties just don’t sell.”

Yet the market for megamansions and penthouses has cooled significantly in the last year. Prices for homes in the top 5 percent of the real estate market fell 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, according to Redfin. Prices for the rest of the housing market increased 4.7 percent.

Brokers say the very top of the market — consisting of eight- and nine-figure homes — is faring the worst as slowing economies overseas and volatile stock markets have spooked buyers. The supply of homes for the rich exploded as builders aimed at the high end after the financial crisis.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 5 Comments

Men, evidence that your wife should be responsible for picking your house

From the Philly Inquirer:

Study: Homeownership favors men, but not in Pa., N.J.

Homeownership is more profitable for men than for women, a study released Thursday by the real estate search engine RealtyTrac maintains.

Analyzing 2.1 million single-family homes nationwide, RealtyTrac found that homes owned by single men on average are worth 10 percent more and have appreciated $10,112 (16 percent) more since purchase than those owned by single women.

Single male homeowners accounted for 1.14 million of the total, and single women for 1.01 million, based on public record tax assessor data collected by RealtyTrac.

Pennsylvania and New Jersey do not quite follow the national trend, RealtyTrac data show.

Although single men in Pennsylvania own houses worth $8,160 (5 percent) more than single women – $149,486 versus $141,326 – the average gain since purchase is $689, or 2 percent, in favor of women, RealtyTrac showed.

The actual return on purchase is 31.95 percent for women and 28.9 percent for men, data show.

In New Jersey, the gap at purchase is 5 percent in the men’s favor – $257,805 versus $246,188.

The average gain in value since purchase, however, favors the women – $8,546 or 29 percent more, the RealtyTrac data show.

“Single women I sell to gravitate to smaller, less expensive houses that offer an easier lifestyle,” said Val Nunnenkamp, an agent with Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Fox & Roach Realtors in Marlton.

“I’d say 89 percent of them do, and what they do with the houses and how that is presented to the next buyer at sale time makes the difference,” he said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Humor, New Jersey Real Estate | 81 Comments

FHFA: 19 consecutive quarterly price increases

From HousingWire:

FHFA: Home prices increase again, rise 1.3

While home prices only increased a meager 1.3% in the first quarter of 2016, it’s added onto a long string of increases; 19 consecutive quarterly price increases to be exact.

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index, this chart shows the seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly appreciation rates.

From first quarter 2015 to first quarter 2016, house prices rose 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive year in which prices grew more than 5%.

The FHFA added that its seasonally adjusted monthly index for March was up 0.7% from February.

“While the overall appreciation rate was robust in the first quarter, home price appreciation was somewhat less widespread than in recent quarters,” said FHFA Supervisory Economist Andrew Leventis.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 135 Comments

Skipping the starter

From NJ101.5:

NJ millennials are skipping ‘starter homes’ and going for these instead

The term “starter home” may be on the path to extinction, at least here in New Jersey. It seems many young buyers are skipping that first step and going big right out of the gate.

Randi Dickman, broker associate for Re/Max Signature Properties, has been in the real estate business for 17 years and lately she’s been noticing a decline in interest for homes that let buyers enter the market and get their feet wet before eventually transitioning into a “forever home.”

Instead, that forever home — one with multiple bedrooms and bathrooms, along with a garage, basement and yard — is what many young buyers are searching for on their first trip through the real estate market.

“A lot of them are living at home until they’re 25-26 years old, so they have those first years from 20 to 26 to save the money, and that’s where they’re coming up with these large down payments,” Dickman said. “The millennial generation is living home longer, and so that’s giving them the opportunity to save their money.”

Moving into a larger home, to young couples, means no need to move again later on, even if a couple children are added to the equation.

The millennial generation is a “different beast,” according to Dickman, who handles properties in Monmouth, Ocean and Middlesex counties.

Patrick O’Keefe, director of economic research at CohnReznick in Roseland, also points to changing patterns among generations. Baby Boomers, for the most part, followed an immediate pattern of school-job-home.

“That still is probably the predominant map that most people are following, but it is no longer the only route that particularly-young adults view themselves traveling,” O’Keefe said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery | 96 Comments

South Jersey recovery key for NJ

From the Press of Atlantic City:

South Jersey real estate sales jumped last month, prices mixed

Homes sold faster all over South Jersey last month, with the number of closed deals up sharply in most of the region from April 2015.

Atlantic County led the way with an increase of almost 27 percent in completed sales of single-family homes over the year before, but prices continued to drop in the county, according to data from the New Jersey Association of Realtors.

The median price of a single home fell to $168,500 this April, down more than 12 percent from last year.

Cumberland and Ocean counties also saw double-digit increases in their volume of closed sales, with Cumberland’s going up 10.3 percent and Ocean’s up by 13.2 percent.

Cape May County had the smallest increase the number of single-home sales, at 4.4 percent, and prices for those properties dropped by more than 10 percent. The median price went down to $269,000.

But in the category of townhouses and condos, a popular option near the beaches and bays in many of that county’s shore towns, the number of deals was up nearly 35 percent from the year before.

And prices for those places also increased 6 percent, to a median of $429,000, all according to monthly figures from the New Jersey Association of Realtors.

Posted in Housing Recovery, South Jersey Real Estate | 51 Comments

Ain’t no America left for Americans like me

Posted in General | 74 Comments

April Existing Home Sales beat estimates

From CNBC:

Existing home sales hit 5.45 million units in April, vs. expectations of 5.4 million

U.S. home resales rose more than expected in April, suggesting the economy continues to gather pace during the second quarter.

The National Association of Realtors said on Friday existing home sales increased 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.45 million units.

March’s sales pace was revised slightly higher to 5.36 million units from the previously reported 5.33 million units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales rising to a 5.40 million-unit pace last month. Sales were up 6.0 percent from a year ago.

However, there were regional variations. Home sales surged in the Midwest by 12.1 percent last month and also rose in the Northeast while the South and West lost steam.

The number of unsold homes on the market rose 9.2 percent to 2.14 million in April from March, but was down 3.6 percent compared to a year ago.

“Housing shortage is still present,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.At April’s sales pace, it would take 4.7 months to clear the stock of homes on the market, up from 4.4 months in March. A six-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.

The share of first-time homebuyers rose to 32 percent from 30 percent last month and a year ago.Nationwide, the median home price stood at $232,500. That was an increase of 6.3 percent from one year ago.It was the 50th consecutive month house prices rose on a year-on-year basis, Yun added.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 18 Comments

The Zombie Census

From the Philly Inquirer:

Still No. 1: New Jersey’s supply of ‘zombie’ homes

The number of U.S. houses left vacant because of foreclosure was down at the start of the second quarter compared with the same period last year. But New Jersey’s share of these “zombies” continues to be tops in the nation, real estate information provider RealtyTrac said Thursday.

Zombie homes are defined as houses that mortgage borrowers vacated for which the foreclosure process was never completed.

In the United States overall, just 19,187, or 4.7 percent, of residential properties in the foreclosure process were zombies as of May, according to the Irvine, Calif., company, which monitors foreclosures nationwide. New Jersey claimed 4,003 of them. Pennsylvania had 572.

In South Jersey, zombies totaled 1,268 as of May, making up 11.2 percent of homes in foreclosure in Burlington County, 9.4 percent in Camden County, and 8 percent in Gloucester County.

RealtyTrac reported that Gloucester County had the fewest foreclosures, 2,975, and the fewest zombies, 237. Burlington County had 468 zombies among its 4,185 houses in foreclosure.

Only Camden County showed a year-over-year decline, 5.5 percent, in the number of zombies. Of the region’s three South Jersey counties, it had the most foreclosures, 5,967, and the most zombies, 563.

Typically, New Jersey has a roughly three-year timeline for moving houses in foreclosure’s many stages through the courts. At an average 1,103 days, it is the longest in the country. (Pennsylvania’s timeline is about 554 days.) High volume has exacerbated the Garden State’s situation, lawyers and experts say.

Posted in Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate | 39 Comments

Price Reduced! Frick Mansion Still Empty

With the Realtors posting snarky lowball pieces about overpriced NJ houses – maybe it is time to call it quits. From Realtor.com:

6 Years Later, New Jersey’s Most Expensive Home Still Waiting for Its First Resident

In this age of tiny houses and the less-is-more aesthetic of millennials, can a house be too large for its market—even when that market sports a median home price around the $5 million mark? That has to be a question that occurs when viewing this massive 30,000-square-foot home listed for $48,880,000 in tony Alpine, NJ.

New Jersey’s most expensive home is only 30 minutes from Manhattan, and the property has been on and off the market since being built in 2010 by real estate mogul Richard Kurtz. Currently, Alpine’s median listing price is $4,995,000, and an estate just down the road from this mansion is listed for $27.8 million.

Kurtz originally had the home built for him and his wife, but they decided it was too much house after construction was done. He put it on the market in 2010. The home has apparently never been lived in, although one report noted Kurtz has been paying roughly $300,000 a year in property tax since it was built.

Listing agent Sharon Kurtz with Prominent Properties Sotheby’s International Realty–Alpine didn’t return a request for comment on the mansion.

The listing price for the home, known as the Stone Mansion, has fallen from $68 million in 2010 to $56 million in 2013 to $49 million later that year to today’s price of $48.88 million. The manse features 12 bedrooms, 15 full bathrooms, and four half-baths. And, of course, there is every imaginable amenity, including an indoor basketball court, a 4,000-bottle wine cellar, gold fixtures in the bathrooms, and a master suite that is larger than most New York City apartments just across the Hudson.

Posted in Humor, New Jersey Real Estate, Price Reduced | 38 Comments