July Beige Book

Posted on July 14, 2016 by grim

From the Federal Reserve:

Beige Book – July 13, 2016 Second District–New York

The Second District’s economy has picked up, growing modestly since the last report, and labor markets remain tight. Contacts note continued moderate pressure on input prices and wages but little change in selling prices overall. Manufacturers report a modest rebound in activity, while service-sector businesses indicate a slight increase. Consumer spending was little changed, on balance, and tourism activity has remained sluggish. Residential real estate markets were mostly improved but weaker at the high end, while commercial real estate markets were steady to stronger. Residential construction has tapered off, whereas commercial construction has picked up. Banks report further strengthening in loan demand and continued improvement in delinquency rates.

Construction and Real Estate

The District’s housing markets have been mixed since the last report, with widespread signs of weakness at the high end of the market. New York City’s rental market has shown further signs of slackening: rents have been flat to down slightly in Manhattan, while they have continued to edge up in Brooklyn and Queens. In all these areas, rents on larger units have declined. Vacancy rates across the city, though still low, have moved up, and landlord concessions (e.g., free month’s rent, waived fees) have reportedly grown more widespread.

New York City’s co-op and condo resale market has strengthened somewhat–mainly in Brooklyn and Queens, where prices are up 8-10 percent or more from a year ago and sales volume has picked up as well. Manhattan resale prices are up roughly 5 percent from a year ago, with most of the rise on smaller apartments, while sales volume has receded from high levels. The inventory of resale units remains low, while the inventory of newly developed apartments for sale, mostly luxury, is reported to be high.

Elsewhere across the region, resale activity for single-family homes has picked up across New York State and in northern New Jersey. A real estate contact in the Buffalo area characterizes the local housing market as particularly robust and notes strong demand for downtown properties. There has also been a strong pickup in sales volume in suburbs around New York City, though prices have held steady. Residential construction has tapered off throughout most of the District, in both the multi-family and single-family sectors.

Commercial real estate markets have been stable to somewhat stronger through mid-year. Office availability rates edged up in Manhattan; despite a pickup in leasing activity, a large amount of space coming onto the market was not fully absorbed. Elsewhere, office availability rates were steady to down slightly; across upstate New York, they were at multi-year lows. New office construction has picked up in New York City but remains sluggish across the rest of the District. Industrial real estate markets strengthened further–particularly across the New York City metro region–with asking rents continuing to climb briskly and vacancy rates falling to their lowest levels since before the recession. New factory and warehouse construction picked up in the second quarter.

Posted in Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, North Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 41 Comments

Can we say the national foreclosure crisis is over?

Posted on July 13, 2016 by grim

From HousingWire:

Foreclosures, serious delinquencies nearing decade low

The number of homes in some stage of foreclosure and the number of seriously delinquent mortgages continued to decline in May, falling to the lowest level since October 2007, according to the latest data from CoreLogic.

CoreLogic’s May 2016 National Foreclosure Report shows the national foreclosure inventory, which is the total number of homes at some stage of the foreclosure process and completed foreclosures, hovers around 390,000 homes.

In April, the national foreclosure inventory was roughly 406,000 homes, and in March, that figure was 427,000 homes.

According CoreLogic’s report, May’s foreclosure inventory hit the lowest level in nearly nine years.

CoreLogic’s report also showed that in May, the foreclosure inventory declined by 24.5% and completed foreclosures declined by 6.9% compared with May 2015.

The number of completed foreclosures nationwide decreased year over year from 41,000 in May 2015 to 38,000 in May 2016, which represents a decline of 67.9% from the peak of 117,813 in September 2010.

CoreLogic’s report also showed the sustained improvement in the number of mortgages in serious delinquency, defined as loans that are 90 days or more past due, and loans in foreclosure or Real Estate Owned.

According to CoreLogic’s report, the number of mortgages in serious delinquency fell by 21.6% from May 2015 to May 2016, with 1.1 million mortgages, or 2.8% of all mortgages, in this category.

The May 2016 serious delinquency rate is also the lowest in nearly nine years, reaching the lowest level since October 2007.

Posted in Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 43 Comments

Trading lawns for square footage

Posted on July 12, 2016 by grim

From the Atlantic:

The Shrinking of the American Lawn

The American house is growing. These days, the average new home encompasses 2,500 square feet, about 50 percent more area than the average house in the late 1970s, according to Census data. Compared to the typical house of 40 years ago, today’s likely has another bathroom and an extra bedroom, making it about the same size as the Brady Bunch house, which famously fit two families.

This expansion has come at a cost: the American lawn.
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As homes have grown larger, the lots they’re built on have actually gotten smaller—average area is down 13 percent since 1978, to 0.19 acres. That might not seem like a lot, but after adjusting for houses’ bigger footprints, it appears the median yard has shrunk by more than 26 percent, and now stands at just 0.14 acres. The actual value lies somewhere between those two numbers, since a house’s square footage could include a second (or third) floor. Either way, it’s a substantial reduction.
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And this is data on new homes. No one is going door-to-door and lopping off front lawns (well, except for where they are). The truth is far more sinister: Americans are voluntarily buying houses with smaller yards. What does the United States stand for, if not the right to a fertile, springy carpet of turf thicker than the Bradys’ wall-to-wall shag?
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Forced to choose between having a bigger lawn and a bigger house, Americans who live near economic hubs are picking the house.

The cultural primacy of the lawn has other enemies, too. As my colleague Megan Garber noted last year in “The Life and Death of the American Lawn,” a mix of drought-conscious environmentalism and shift in social mores has made spending money and effort on perfectly tufted turfgrass seem a bit simpering, even selfish. “Maybe, as the billboards dotting California’s highways cheerily insist, ‘Brown Is the New Green,’” she wrote. Witness the rise in rock gardens and drought-resistant yards.

An inflection point approaches. For now, a lawn is still an end in itself, a place to play and garden and stick pink flamingos. But if the shrinkage continues, the lawn is in danger of becoming merely symbolic. That’s nothing new to city dwellers, who count themselves lucky to have a patch of grass and have made public parks their front yards for centuries. But it would signal a profound change in suburbia, and not an altogether attractive one, as McMansions squeeze ever tighter together, hulking and lonely.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Development | 58 Comments

People still want to live here?

Posted on July 11, 2016 by grim

From the Record:

Sales of starter homes spark rise in North Jersey real estate activity

When Makeda and Kai Mallea started shopping for a house in Maywood, they had to compete with other eager buyers.

“Houses would come on the market and disappear instantly. There would be five or six offers on the table,” says Kai Mallea, a 32-year-old software engineer.

So when he and his wife, a social worker, saw a three-bedroom colonial they liked, they realized they had to act quickly.

“We looked at the home, we liked it, we drove around the neighborhood to check it out, and we put in an offer that night,” Mallea recalls.

The Malleas’ experience reflects a jump in demand for North Jersey homes — especially starter homes — during the spring, traditionally the liveliest home-buying season.

According to the New Jersey Realtors, the volume of sales from January through May rose almost 20 percent in Bergen County and 28 percent in Passaic County over the same period last year. And buyers’ hunger for homes left the supply of properties on the market down about 17 percent in both counties in May, the most recent figures available.

Even with the increased demand, prices have barely budged. According to the New Jersey Realtors, single-family homes sold for a median $439,000 in Bergen and $288,250 in Passaic in the first five months of the year — both little changed from a year earlier. That could be because after watching home prices crater in the housing bust, buyers (and their mortgage lenders) are wary about overpaying.

Realtors say that while the luxury market has been cool this spring, the under-$400,000 price range has been busy, with bidding wars often breaking out over houses in good condition.
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This spring’s activity in the starter-house market cuts against the grain of recent nationwide trends.

First-timers have been conspicuously absent from the home market in recent years, making up only about 30 percent of buyers, down from long-term averages around 40 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Millennials have held back because of student debt, a preference for urban lifestyles and a concern that homes may not be a wise investment, after watching property values plummet in the housing crash about 10 years ago.

But many of those millennials seem to be moving toward homeownership, as they marry and have children or just grow tired of paying ever-rising rents.

Posted in Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 27 Comments

Neighbors to the north looking strong

Posted on July 9, 2016 by grim

From LoHud:

Reports: Home sales surge across region

The Lower Hudson Valley real estate market showed some health in the second quarter, as the number of home sales in Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties rose sharply compared to the same period last year.

In Westchester, the number of home sales from April to June was 2,241, up 11.5 percent from the 2015 figure, 2,009. The volume was second highest for a second quarter in a decade, according to Jonathan Miller, CEO and president of Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants and the author of the Elliman report, which covers sales in Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess counties.

The number of homes up for sale in that quarter was 5,149 in Westchester, down 13.7 percent from the 2015 figure, 5,965.
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“We’ve now had sales going up for over four years, with regional transactions rising in 16 out of the last 18 quarters,” Rand stated. “Most importantly, we’re now seeing sustained sales increases driving sales totals to levels that rival the height of the last seller’s market, with almost 15,000 single-family home and 3,000 condos sold over the past 12 months.”
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Surges in sales haven’t directly translated into an increase in pricing, however, particularly in Westchester.

Westchester’s overall median sales price for residential properties in the second quarter was $492,000, up 6.3 percent from a year before. But the second quarter median sales price for single family homes went down to $640,750 from $650,500 in 2015, according to the Elliman report.

The drop was largely caused by a “relative lack of demand in the very high end of the market, for homes selling above $3 million,” Rand wrote.

The number of Westchester single-family home sales in the second quarter was 1,472, up by 20.1 percent from the 2015 figure, 1,226. The inventory was 3,417 in the second quarter, down by 10.7 percent from a year before, 3,826.
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In Rockland, the second quarter median sale price for single family homes was $430,000, up 4.9 percent from the 2015 median, according to the Rand Report. The number of sales also rose 28.2 percent to 495 from the same time last year.

In Putnam, the second quarter median sale price for single family homes was $314,000, up 10.2 percent from 2015. The number of sales rose 36.3 percent to 274 in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, when the figure was 201.

Posted in Housing Recovery, National Real Estate, NYC | 16 Comments

International purchases rise, shift to lower priced properties

Posted on July 8, 2016 by grim

From CNBC:

Foreign buyers flood US real estate, but buy cheaper homes

The appetite for U.S. real estate continues to flourish, but international buyers are shifting their sights from luxury to less-pricey properties. This may be due to overall higher home prices, along with a stronger U.S. dollar, which both cost foreign buyers more at the negotiating table. There are also fewer nonresident foreigners investing in the market.

“Weaker economic growth throughout the world, devalued foreign currencies and financial market turbulence combined to present significant challenges for foreign buyers over the past year,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). “While these obstacles led to a cool down in sales from nonresident foreign buyers, the purchases by recent immigrant foreigners rose, resulting in the overall sales dollar volume still being the second highest since 2009.”
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Foreign buyers purchased $102.6 billion of residential property in the U.S. between April 2015 and March 2016, according to NAR’s annual report on international activity in U.S. real estate. That is a 1.3 percent decline in dollar volume from the previous survey. The number of properties purchased, however, rose 2.8 percent to 214,885. The value of homes bought by foreigners was typically higher than the median price of all U.S. homes.

“The slight drop in dollar volume can probably be accounted for based on the types of properties purchased, and the locations of many of those properties. We’ve seen at least some evidence that foreign buyers — both investors and people just looking for a home — have begun looking beyond expensive markets like San Francisco, New York City and Washington D.C., and buying properties in smaller, less-expensive cities in the Southeast and Midwest,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president at Ten-X (formerly Auction.com), an online real estate marketplace .

Another major shift was in the makeup of international buyers. Chinese purchasers continued to outpace all others, with their dollar volume exceeding the total of the next four ranked countries combined. Their dollar volume of sales, at $27.3 billion, was a slight decrease from last year’s survey but was still three times as much as Canadian buyers, who were ranked second. Chinese buyers also bought the most expensive homes at a median price of $542,084.
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As for U.S. destinations, five states accounted for half of foreign buyer purchases: Florida, (22 percent), California (15 percent), Texas (10 percent), Arizona and New York (each at 4 percent). Latin Americans, Europeans and Canadians, who historically favor warmer climates, were most prevalent in Florida and Arizona. Asian buyers flocked to California and New York. Texas was more a mix of buyers from Latin American, the Caribbean and Asia. Texas may be more of an investment play, as demand for single-family rentals there remains strong.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 114 Comments

refinance … BOOM!

Posted on July 7, 2016 by grim

From National Mortgage News:

Brexit Drives Mortgage Application Activity Surge: MBA

Mortgage applications increased 14.2% from one week earlier as rates dropped in reaction to the Brexit vote, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 1 found that the refinance index increased 21% from the previous week to the highest level since January 2015. Meanwhile, the market share of refi apps increased to 61.6%, the highest level since February 2016, from 58.1%.

At the same time, the seasonally adjusted purchase index increased 4% from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, purchase applications are up 23% over the same week in 2015.

“Interest rates continued to drop last week as markets assessed the impact of Brexit, downgrading the likelihood of additional rate hikes by the Fed, and mortgage rates for 30-year conforming loans dropped to their lowest level in over three years,” said Mike Fratantoni, the MBA’s chief economist.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to its lowest level since May 2013, 3.66%, from 3.75%.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) decreased to its lowest level since January 2011, 3.67%, from 3.74%.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year mortgages insured by the FHA decreased to its lowest level since May 2013, 3.56%, from 3.61%, while for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, the average decreased to its lowest level since May 2013, 2.96%, from 3.02%.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 62 Comments

Corelogic: Prices rise in May (But not in NJ)

Posted on July 6, 2016 by grim

From HousingWire:

CoreLogic: Home prices keep rising, demand not letting up

Home prices in May are up both monthly and annually, according to the Home Price Index and HPI Forecast released today by CoreLogic.

Overall, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 5.9% from last year, and 1.6% from April, according to the CoreLogic HPI.

“Housing remained an oasis of stability in May with home prices rising year over year between 5% and 6% for 22 consecutive months,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said. “The consistently solid growth in home prices has been driven by the highest resale activity in nine years and a still-tight housing inventory.”

It does not seem like the demand will let up any time soon, as the industry continues to predict that mortgage rates will drop still further. In the wake of the United Kingdom’s shocking decision to leave the European Union, experts throughout the U.S. housing industry weighed in on the potential impact of the Brexit.

The general consensus among those experts is that mortgage interest rates will go down, but just how low? Here’s the prediction from Fitch Ratings.

“CoreLogic reported a strong rise in house prices in May, in line with the recent run of solid gains,” Capital Economics Property Economist Matthew Pointon said. “With mortgage rates now likely to stay close to record lows for longer, house prices will continue to come under upwards pressure.”

The HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. The values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

The HPI Forecast showed that prices will increase by 5.3% annually by May 2017, and by 0.8% month-over-month in June 2016.

Posted in Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 69 Comments

Has Asbury finally made it?

Posted on July 5, 2016 by grim

From the NYT:

New Beach Destination on the Jersey Shore? Asbury Park

For nearly a century, the Baronet Theater in Asbury Park, N.J., was a popular venue for vaudeville theater and blockbuster films. Then it, like the city that was its home, fell into disrepair. Eventually its roof collapsed and it was demolished.

This summer, the salvaged marquee of the former theater is lit anew with the opening of the Asbury, a boutique hotel with a rooftop movie theater, complete with lawn chairs, a popcorn machine and a small bar, framed by a white picket fence and stunning Atlantic Ocean views.

The hotel offers the retro-meets-modern sensibility that now defines Asbury Park, which has once again become one of the mid-Atlantic’s top beach destinations.

Across this postage-stamp-size city are examples of the old and the new melding in a refreshingly creative way, pulling in families, professionals, young bar hoppers and a large gay population, all of them across income levels. This eclectic mix is a stark contrast to more stuffy (and staid) nearby beach towns, like Spring Lake.

“It’s Brooklyn on the beach,” said Jon Biondo, a local lawyer who runs a group called the Asbury Park Social Club, which hosts parties at venues including the Baronet Theater.
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Part of Asbury Park’s appeal is that it is so easy to reach: It’s just over an hour from New York City or Philadelphia by car, and an easy ride on a New Jersey Transit train, which drops off day-trippers just a few blocks from the beach.

“It is everyone, and everything,” said Josh Melendez, 28, a bartender who works in Hell’s Kitchen in New York, but takes day trips to Asbury Park with his friends. “Straight, gay, families — you all kind of come together here.”

There is a sense of confidence in Asbury Park today, as locals and major national real-estate developers make increasingly large bets. IStar, the New York City-based real-estate company that owns all 35 acres of beachfront land in Asbury Park, and Madison Marquette, the real estate company in charge of leasing beachfront retail spaces, are planning to invest more than $1 billion in the city over the next decade.
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But by far the biggest news in Asbury Park this year is the Asbury, designed by Anda Andrei, who in nearly three decades as the chief of design for Ian Schrager worked on such renowned hotels as the Delano in Miami, the Paramount in New York, the Mondrian in Los Angeles and the Public hotel in Chicago. The Asbury is one of her first projects since branching off on her own. It won’t be her last. She has been named creative director and lead designer for 10 projects planned or underway with the backing of iStar and its partners.
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The revival slowly got underway about 15 years ago; New Yorkers built up a gay enclave as they bought rundown but still beautiful Victorian homes. The city still has its gritty parts — generally in areas at least five blocks from the beach — where some homes are boarded up and where crime is still a problem. But now the rebirth of Asbury Park is no longer in question.

The only question that does remain is how much of Asbury’s character will be retained as it becomes a summertime mecca again.

“It is my legacy and obligation to not ruin this town,” Jay Sugarman, chief executive of iStar, told Ms. Andrei when he hired her to take over design of their efforts there. “We are not going to turn this into a Disneyland.”

Posted in Housing Recovery, Shore Real Estate | 94 Comments

Sorry Pennsylvania

Posted on July 3, 2016 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Christie eyes scrapping tax deal with Pa., which could cost some N.J. residents more

Gov. Chris Christie will contemplate ending a 38-year-old agreement with Pennsylvania that allows New Jersey and Pennsylvania residents who work across the river to pay income taxes where they live

In an executive order Thursday night, the governor instructed state officials to explore the consequences of withdrawing from that income tax pact.

Christie’s order comes 12 years after former Gov. James E. McGreevey proposed to end the reciprocal tax agreement, but dropped the plan after angering south Jersey residents and lawmakers who said many New Jerseyans who worked in Pennsylvania would have paid more in taxes.
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Currently, New Jersey doesn’t collect income taxes from people living in Pennsylvania and working in New Jersey. Christie’s former treasurer has estimated the Garden State would reap $180 million in revenue from Pennsylvania residents forced to pay taxes here.

The treasurer and attorney general, Christie said in an executive order, are to explore what it would take to pull out of the agreement and “prepare an estimate of the effects such a withdrawal would have on New Jersey’s revenue collections.”

Under the reciprocal agreement, a resident of New Jersey who works in Pennsylvania need only file a tax return in New Jersey. The same is true for a Pennsylvania resident working in New Jersey.
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In a column in NJ Spotlight last year, former Treasurer Andrew Sidamon-Eristoff predicted ending the arrangement would bring $180 million into the state.

“New Jersey’s losses from not being able to tax wealthy Bucks County residents who commute to high-paying jobs in New Jersey far outweighs the taxes New Jersey collects on low- and moderate-income Camden and Gloucester County residents who work in Pennsylvania, typically Philadelphia,” he wrote.

He said it wouldn’t take an act of the Legislature to cancel the pact, and that the state can terminate it with 120 days notice.

Posted in Politics | 43 Comments

Will 24 mortgages even make a dent?

Posted on July 2, 2016 by grim

From HousingWire:

New York launches “first of its kind” program; will buy delinquent mortgages from FHA

In what officials are calling a “first of its kind” program, the city of New York announced Thursday that it is plans to buy a number of delinquent loans from the Federal Housing Administration as part of an effort to keep struggling homeowners from losing their homes to foreclosure.

According to the office of New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, the “Community Restoration Program” will see the city purchase 24 distressed mortgages for one- to four-family homes – with a total of 41 residential units – in the Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island.

The goal of the program? According to de Blasio’s office, the program is designed to stabilize neighborhoods that are not yet recovered from housing crisis.

And what makes this program unique, according to de Blasio’s office, is that marks “one of the first times” that a municipality buys distressed Federal Housing Administration mortgages that would otherwise have been sold at auction to the highest bidder.

“We are fighting to help homeowners stay in the neighborhoods they helped build. And we won’t let predators force them out,” said Mayor Bill de Blasio. “The Community Restoration Program is the first of its kind, and it puts government squarely on the side of struggling families so they can keep their homes.”

The program will cost $13 million, which is being funded by a combination of several sources.

According to de Blasio’s office, the $13 million program is being funded with $1 million in seed money allocated by the New York City Council, $6.9 million in private financing from Goldman Sachs’ Urban Investment Group, and a $2.2 million grant from the Local Initiatives Support Corporation, a major national affordable housing group, that was funded by a bank settlement obtained by the New York State Attorney General.

The program will also be funded by $2.9 million received from Morgan Stanley as part of their $3.2 billion settlement for “deceptive” mortgage bond practices, which was announced in February.
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According to de Blasio’s office, after purchasing the mortgages, the non-profit partner organizations will do “active outreach” and work one-on-one with homeowners, providing counseling and identifying potential solutions to keep current homeowners in their home.

The primary goal is home retention through mortgage modification or refinancing, de Blasio’s office said. “When neither is feasible, for example if a home has been abandoned or a homeowner is not eligible for a modified loan, the fund will work to ensure that the homes are repositioned as affordable homeownership or rental housing opportunities,” de Blasio’s office added.

“With this program, New York continues to lead the path forward in our collective efforts to rebound from the depths of the foreclosure crisis,” Schneiderman said.

“It’s one more tool in the City’s and State’s arsenal for preserving affordable housing and helping homeowners still reeling from the housing crash,” Schneiderman continued.

Posted in Foreclosures, NYC, Politics | 20 Comments

June HousingTrends

Posted on July 1, 2016 by grim

From the Otteau Group:

NJ Purchase Contracts Rise Again in May

Home purchase demand in New Jersey increased for the 21st consecutive month in May rising to nearly 11,000 home-purchase contracts. This was the highest number of purchase contracts recorded in the month of May since 2005, reflecting a 9% increase compared to the same month one year ago. Considering the 15% increase (y-o-y) in May of 2015, home sales in the month of May have increased by more than 24% over the past 2 years.

On a year-to-date basis (January-May) home purchase demand in New Jersey continues to expand, increasing by 17%. The majority of this year’s increase has been concentrated in homes priced below $400,000, as first-time ‘Millennial’ buyers begin to transition from rentership to homeownership, while the number of contracts concentrated in luxury homes priced higher than $2,500,000 has declined by 3%. Reasons for this trend include a greater number of younger-age first home buyers, trade-down purchases by older-age empty-nesters, and relaxed mortgage lending standards which have reduced minimum down-payment amounts.

Shifting to the supply side of the equation, the supply of homes being offered for sale continues to be relatively low which is limiting choices for home buyers. The number of New Jersey homes being offered for sale declined by more than 4,000 (-7%) in May compared to one year ago. This is about 21,000 (-28%) fewer homes on the market compared to the cyclical high in 2011. Today’s unsold inventory equates to 4.8 months of sales (non-seasonally adjusted), which is lower than one year ago when it was 5.7 months.

Currently, the majority (86%) of New Jersey’s 21 counties have less than 8.0 months of supply, which is a balance point for home prices. Hudson County is presently experiencing the strongest market conditions in the state with fewer than 3 months of supply, followed by Essex, Morris, Union and Somerset Counties, which all have fewer than 4 months of supply. None of the counties have an unsold inventory level equivalent to a supply of 12 months or greater, however those with the largest amount of unsold inventory are concentrated in the southern portion of the state including Cape May (10.1), Cumberland (10.7) and Atlantic (11.6).

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 64 Comments

Pending Home Sales pause in May

Posted on June 30, 2016 by grim

From CNBC:

Pending home sales down 3.7%, marking first annual drop in two years

The final push of the spring housing season turned out weaker than expected. Signed contracts to buy existing homes fell 3.7 percent in May compared to April, according to the National Association of Realtors.

April’s reading was revised down. These so-called pending home sales were 0.2 percent lower than May of 2015, the first annual drop since August of 2014.

“With demand holding firm this spring and homes selling even faster than a year ago, the notable increase in closings in recent months took a dent out of what was available for sale in May and ultimately dragged down contract activity,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. “Realtors are acknowledging with increasing frequency lately that buyers continue to be frustrated by the tense competition and lack of affordable homes for sale in their market.”

That competition has pushed home prices higher faster than expected and far faster than income growth. Prices have reached new peaks in seven major metropolitan markets (Denver, Dallas, Portland Oregon, San Francisco, Seattle, Charlotte, and Boston), according to the latest report from S&P/Case-Shiller. Homes are also spending far less time on the market, averaging just 30 days in May, compared to 40 days a year ago.
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Regionally, pending home sales in the Northeast dropped 5.3 percent for the month and are now unchanged from a year ago. In the Midwest sales slipped 4.2 percent in May, and are 1.8 percent below May 2015. Sales in the South declined 3.1 percent for the month but are 0.6 percent higher than last May. The West saw a 3.4 percent monthly drop, and sales are 0.1 percent below a year ago.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 68 Comments

Home prices set new highs in April (but not us)

Posted on June 29, 2016 by grim

From the Record:

Home prices in N.Y. metro area continue gradual increases

Home prices in the region are rising, but at only half the rate of the national averages, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index reported Tuesday.

As the nation continues to recover from the worst housing downturn in decades, single-family values rose 2.6 percent in the New York metropolitan area in the 12 months ending in April, compared with 5 percent nationwide, Case-Shiller reported. Prices in the region are at about the same levels they reached in September 2004, while national prices are at the levels of October 2005. And values are still below their peaks of mid-2006 — about 10 percent nationwide and 16.5 percent below in the region.

Home values haven’t rebounded as smartly in the area as in the nation as a whole, in part because they didn’t crater as far during the housing crash. In addition, foreclosures continue to weigh on the New Jersey market, which was slower to deal with the crisis than the nation as a whole. According to the New Jersey Realtors, single-family home prices rose 1 percent in Bergen County in April, to a median $465,000, and 7 percent in Passaic, to a median $300,000.

April’s price gains were especially strong in the West, led by Dallas, Denver, Portland and Seattle. Northeastern and Midwestern cities, including Washington, New York and Chicago, had gains of 3 percent or less.

David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said the national numbers reflect “a strong price performance” over the past six months. “The home price increases reflect the low unemployment rate, low mortgage interest rates, and consumers’ generally positive outlook,” Blitzer said. “One result is that an increasing number of cities have surpassed the high prices seen before the Great Recession. Currently, seven cities – Denver, Dallas, Portland OR, San Francisco, Seattle, Charlotte, and Boston – are setting new highs.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 70 Comments

Spy house still empty, Fitz-Hume and Millbarge disapprove.

Posted on June 28, 2016 by grim

From the NY Times:

‘Spy House,’ a Decrepit Reminder of Betrayal, Sits Empty in New Jersey

Amid the 75 houses inside the oak-lined, no-outlet neighborhood, a single home stands unoccupied, a celebrity eyesore.

Inside the house, the baseboards have been torn from the walls, with wires visibly protruding. The back deck is deteriorating, and the foundation may be pitched slightly toward the wildlife preserve adjacent to the back yard.

Around here, in a section of town called Fieldstone, everyone knows the peach-colored colonial with a sagging facade as the spy house, where a flock of Federal Bureau of Investigation agents arrested the Murphy family six years ago, on June 27, 2010.

Richard and Cynthia Murphy were really Vladimir and Lidiya Guryev, Russian spies, part of a Northeast corridor cell that was soon sent back to Moscow by the United States government in an exchange. The Guryevs and their two talented, popular daughters, Katie and Lisa, became an inspiration for the FX show “The Americans.”

They are long gone, but the unoccupied house remains a frustrating story of its own and an unwanted symbol of betrayal for the community.
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“The whole thing is pretty creepy on a psychological level,” said Elizabeth Lapin, who lives about 60 yards from the spy house. “The spies resumed a normal life in Moscow, and we’re left with this reminder. The neighborhood was wounded, and it became part of a TV show. Until the house has another family, the story isn’t written.”
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The F.B.I. tore the place apart on the day the Guryevs were arrested, after dragging them away in handcuffs.

That began a Dickensian, bureaucratic process: More than a year passed before the family’s green Honda Civic was repossessed from the driveway; two more years went by before the place was technically put up for sale by the United States Marshals Service in April 2013.

The 1,830-square-foot home with a “recently updated kitchen” was originally listed at $444,900, and several neighbors expressed interest. Later, the price was reduced to $365,500. Would-be buyers, however, were told by the broker, Fast Track Real Estate Company of Waldwick, N.J., that the property was either in escrow or not for sale. Structural questions lingered, and potential buyers wondered if the deed was fully cleared.
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Then last month, on May 16, Santander Bank, based in Boston, acquired the deed as a lienholder.

The Russians, it turned out, owed money.
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The sales process was reset to square one this spring. The federal government had by then remitted about $38,000 in property taxes on the spy house over the last three years. The Marshals Service also kept the home winterized and occasionally sent landscapers to mow the lawn.

But when Santander first took over, the property was ignored and the weeds grew higher. Public Service Electric & Gas had taken to parking its equipment in the driveway. A contractor came to look at the crumbling front steps but did not return.

“It’s not safe,” said Chris Delaney, who lives across the street from the spy house. “It could catch fire. You worry if there will be people squatting in there, and what bothers me the most is it’s a giant waste of money. What was the government doing for five years?”
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“We have been working with the approved brokers and we are ensuring that the property is being maintained in preparation for sale,” a Santander spokeswoman wrote in an email.

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