July Beige Book

From the Federal Reserve:

Beige Book – July 13, 2016 Second District–New York

The Second District’s economy has picked up, growing modestly since the last report, and labor markets remain tight. Contacts note continued moderate pressure on input prices and wages but little change in selling prices overall. Manufacturers report a modest rebound in activity, while service-sector businesses indicate a slight increase. Consumer spending was little changed, on balance, and tourism activity has remained sluggish. Residential real estate markets were mostly improved but weaker at the high end, while commercial real estate markets were steady to stronger. Residential construction has tapered off, whereas commercial construction has picked up. Banks report further strengthening in loan demand and continued improvement in delinquency rates.

Construction and Real Estate

The District’s housing markets have been mixed since the last report, with widespread signs of weakness at the high end of the market. New York City’s rental market has shown further signs of slackening: rents have been flat to down slightly in Manhattan, while they have continued to edge up in Brooklyn and Queens. In all these areas, rents on larger units have declined. Vacancy rates across the city, though still low, have moved up, and landlord concessions (e.g., free month’s rent, waived fees) have reportedly grown more widespread.

New York City’s co-op and condo resale market has strengthened somewhat–mainly in Brooklyn and Queens, where prices are up 8-10 percent or more from a year ago and sales volume has picked up as well. Manhattan resale prices are up roughly 5 percent from a year ago, with most of the rise on smaller apartments, while sales volume has receded from high levels. The inventory of resale units remains low, while the inventory of newly developed apartments for sale, mostly luxury, is reported to be high.

Elsewhere across the region, resale activity for single-family homes has picked up across New York State and in northern New Jersey. A real estate contact in the Buffalo area characterizes the local housing market as particularly robust and notes strong demand for downtown properties. There has also been a strong pickup in sales volume in suburbs around New York City, though prices have held steady. Residential construction has tapered off throughout most of the District, in both the multi-family and single-family sectors.

Commercial real estate markets have been stable to somewhat stronger through mid-year. Office availability rates edged up in Manhattan; despite a pickup in leasing activity, a large amount of space coming onto the market was not fully absorbed. Elsewhere, office availability rates were steady to down slightly; across upstate New York, they were at multi-year lows. New office construction has picked up in New York City but remains sluggish across the rest of the District. Industrial real estate markets strengthened further–particularly across the New York City metro region–with asking rents continuing to climb briskly and vacancy rates falling to their lowest levels since before the recession. New factory and warehouse construction picked up in the second quarter.

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41 Responses to July Beige Book

  1. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Deplumiest. says:


  2. Juice Box says:

    A vision of the future.


  3. D-FENS says:


    DNC Goons ripping signs out of Bernie supporters’ hands and then trying to look innocent.

  4. grim says:

    Neuromancer – Gibson is a prophet.

  5. nwnj3 says:

    Looks like the fat man is on the short list for VP. I suspect Trump is just flattering him and has no intention of offering it to him. I don’t know any segment where Christie is highly popular and he has baggage.

    Meanwhile Trump continues to demonstrate a particular genius for campaigning. He’s just kicking back now and allowing Hillary’s duplicity to blow up in her face.

  6. Juice Box says:

    Christie for ambassador to Iraq

  7. Juice Box says:

    Some idiot this morning stopped on the side of the parkway chasing the Pokemon

  8. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    Christie for the FOOD and drug administration

  9. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    cause old farts need fear to get an erektion

    The generation with student debt feels better than the generation that will get 100% of its Social Security payments

  10. grim says:

    Good piece yesterday. Christie put Trump’s son-in-law’s father in jail.

    Don’t forget about Kushner.

  11. That’s great Juice!

    A vision of the future.


  12. GOP's broken (the good one) says:


    None of the five living GOP nominees–


    –will speak at the party’s 2016 convention

  13. Juice Box says:

    Re#2 – it is Trumps party now, no more neocons, no more war party. The war party is now the Democrats.

  14. Not the Expat says:

    About the Vimeo video.

    That is the app that they need to put on those Google/Apple glasses. Add infrared/image amplification for blind bats like me, and let me adjust/kill ads and put my personalize stuff and is worth it.

    Only bad side. That is extremely closed to how a “schizophrenic” person experiences the world.

    So to the future, full of imitation schizophrenics – brought to you by Google.

  15. Anybody else selling stocks and buying PHYS, PSLV today?

  16. grim says:

    In a week, Pokemon Go is outranking both Twitter and Facebook in active users and engagement time.

  17. Juice Box digging his own grave says:

    Re:# 16 – No doubt I caught two of them this morning while sitting in meetings.

  18. Wait until the new fleshlight app comes out.

    In a week, Pokemon Go is outranking both Twitter and Facebook in active users and engagement time.

  19. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Deplumiest. says:

    Imagine if a Fox anchor or executive said these things


    Oh, wait, we don’t have to imagine

  20. Hillary's Cankles are ground zero for Zika virus says:

    Time to dust off the old DOW 19,000 hat?

  21. WickedOrange says:
  22. LOL! Somebody check this out. I don’t know who got into Google’s SEO, but if you just search for “obama” in Google News, this is the top hit right now:

    Obama Signs Executive Order Allowing Military to Fight US Citizens

  23. My favorite is S&P 2075. We’ve crossed it hundreds of times since 2014. I’m not throwing that hat out yet, either;-)

    Time to dust off the old DOW 19,000 hat?

  24. How about the Dump Trump contingent in the rules committee being in the wrong place at the wrong time? Rasmussen poll has Trump with a 7 point lead over the cover model from the Articles Dictionary of Impeachment. They can’t even make a case that he’ll lose.

  25. Telecoms and Staples close to following Utilities into the red. It’s about time.

  26. I’ve heard 4 identical ads from this Hillary PAC on conservative talk radio in the last half hour, all geared to getting Trump to release his tax returns with no mention of Hillary:


  27. GOP's broken (the good one) says:


    Tim Tebow makes Donald Trump’s list of Republican convention speakers

  28. Juice Box digging his own grave says:

    Is Christie on suicide watch?

  29. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Deplumiest. says:

    [22] expat

    Obama has authorized use of military force against civilians in EOs, just not in that one.

    Further, use of the military domestically is authorized in the Insurrection Act.

  30. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Deplumiest. says:

    Also, most EOs extend older ones so Obama may have been extending an action by a predecessor

  31. grim says:

    You know, if Billy Mays was still alive, Trump would have picked him over Pence.

    Trump+Mays would have been absolutely fantastic, amazing, close down the state department because you would want no better negotiators. China would cower.

  32. walking bye says:

    Ex Pat , I would gladly appreciate a sell off in utilities. PEG would have been a nice buy at 35-37. What do you see in Silver? I hate metals as I always get it wrong.

  33. Nom – going the other way, can a sitting president unilaterally rescind a predecessor’s EO and thereby force a successor, should he wish to usurp similar powers for himself, to create his own effective replacement out of whole cloth?

    Also, most EOs extend older ones so Obama may have been extending an action by a predecessor

  34. Its not so much what I like but, rather, the inverse correlation with PM and equities.

    In short, buy gold(and maybe silver) in complacent times at VIX=12 to 13 and sell at stressful times when VIX>=18 during the pullback. If the bottom drops out, just hold it.

    Ex Pat , I would gladly appreciate a sell off in utilities. PEG would have been a nice buy at 35-37. What do you see in Silver? I hate metals as I always get it wrong.

  35. Walking bye says:

    Another terror attack in France? Not good for Hillary

  36. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Deplumiest. says:

    [33] expat

    I believe so

  37. A Home Buyer says:

    37 – The scary part about this is that you cannot prepare or protect against this. You can’t make box trucks, or even pickups, illegal or “controlled”.

    There are far more dangerous and destructive ways to break a populace that i hope we never have to endure.

  38. I think you mean:

    There are far more dangerous and destructive ways to break attack a populace that i hope we never have to endure.

    We won’t be broken.

  39. jcer says:

    The thing that’s scary for me is I was just on vacation there 2 months ago, I also was in Istanbul, so it seems the terrorists have gotten my itinerary and are using it as a terror check list. France should definitely start to expel Muslim immigrants and put the remaining citizens on terror watch. I mean this makes the other attacks look humane this was a bunch of people out on a summer evening watching fireworks, I’m sure there were a lot of children around. I don’t really have an issue with Muslims, I am friendly with a few, they are good people. But that idiot Trump is right that more recent migrants present a big risk.

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