From Bloomberg (Hat tip Hoodafa):
Millennials Need a New Housing Bubble
Every year since 2009 we’ve been running a housing deficit: More housing for sale has been absorbed than built. With a glut of housing left over from the housing bubble and the great recession, it’s logical that construction of new supply was subdued for a few years. But vacant inventory for sale normalized in 2012, and currently stands at a 12-year low. So why aren’t builders building more? The pace of construction remains far below the rate of household creation.
Part of the blame is caused by a shortage of construction workers. After the housing bust, many construction workers left for other industries, such as the then-booming energy sector, or retired. They’ve been slow to return, and current immigration policy makes it difficult to bring in new workers from other countries. As a result, the unemployment rate for construction workers is at its lowest level since 2000. If current trends continue, by next summer the construction labor shortage may be approaching the severity seen immediately after World War II.
In response to a nearly generational low in housing inventory and construction worker shortage, one might expect that there would be booming wage growth for construction workers, drawing labor away from other industries. Yet we don’t have conclusive signs of that. Year-over-year wage growth for construction workers is currently 2.7 percent, nearly a full point lower than it was at the same time in the year 2000.
The lack of growth in new construction jobs is sobering. Despite a need for more housing, and despite the labor shortage and the wage growth, construction industry employment fell 6,000 in April and 16,000 in May and showed no growth in June. This is the first time in more than five years that construction employment has shown no growth for three months.
This is all the more perplexing because the cyclical conditions for real estate have rarely been better. In addition to the low level of inventory and rising secular demand as millennials are ready to buy homes, the economy has rising wage growth and historically low levels of interest rates, as I wrote about last week.
While the signals from the economic data are very strong, the market signals have been more muted. What’s clear is that 2-3 percent construction wage growth and 5-6 percent house price appreciation isn’t anywhere close to creating strong enough price signals to encourage the market to build all the housing we’re going to need over the next decade.
Demand… and rising prices isn’t going to fix that.
I was going to make fun of the Jonas brothers for failing in real estate, but the guy built a nice looking house.
http://realestate.nj.com/realestate-news/2016/07/kevin_jonas_boonton_home_for_s.html#incart_river_home
That said, he might be losing his shirt on the deal, down to $2.32m ask from $3.35m. Hell, there was a time when that would take the top spot on Price Reduced!
Actions have consequences.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0ZG2GR
One of those “costs” was their voluntary wage hike. That’s their business and I don’t blame Starbucks for slashing headcount or raising prices. I don’t have to go there.
But the whining Millenials and downtrodden who lost jobs amuse me. First, did they not understand basic economics? And second, where they hoping to live out their lives as career baristas? On the bright side, maybe anon is among those cut.
Workforce management?
This isn’t new, this is a key part of managing a large labor force in an environment of changing and highly variable demand.
This is one of the reasons that outsourcers are more successful at running the business than companies themselves. Generally, we find that companies looking to outsource are running their own internal operations incredibly inefficiently. Most of them don’t even forecast demand. They have a bunch of people that clock in, and clock out. No idea. Manufacturers figured this out years ago, but most service-oriented businesses had no idea at all. Manufacturers has teams of PhDs to figure this out. Service industries had names on white boards in the break room. We’ve seen businesses with 30% more staff than actually needed. Basically 1/3rd of the company just sitting around doing nothing.
We use some very sophisticated systems to manage workforce, to give you an idea, we manage it on a 15 minute interval. In any 15 minute period over the day, we have a forecast, we know our forecast accuracy, we match actual demand to forecast and adjust labor accordingly. Based on exactly what every employee is doing, at every minute of the day, and we have almost 100,000 of them.
We’re well beyond broken at this point.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
July 14, 2016 at 11:00 pm
I think you mean:
There are far more dangerous and destructive ways to break attack a populace that i hope we never have to endure.
We won’t be broken.
Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité.
Vive la France, vive les Etats-Unis!
if by “We” you mean the GOP, I agree 100%
Joyce says:
July 15, 2016 at 7:28 am
We’re well beyond broken at this point.
It also looks like Starbucks strategy to move the transaction to self service over mobile devices is working incredibly effectively.
You’ll see more companies following and making the investment based on those results.
@pwizla
Universal Basic Income: The Answer to Automation?
grim says:
July 15, 2016 at 7:48 am
You’ll see more companies following and making the investment based on those
All my Starbucks and Dunkin orders have been via Mobile app for the past few months and it’s infinitesimally faster and accurate. Plus, there’s nothing better than watching all of those sheep in line sneer when I run in and out with my coffee. Plus, the discounts and promos have me paying probably around $1 per large coffee.
Nice to see those tough French gun laws working so well! Maybe we need to tighten them up here?
@Trump
We should exercise the Hiroshima Nagasaki option on Mecca. We need to Tell Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb that he has 6 months to end Islamic radicalization and if he fails, boom goes the rock.
(Trump didn’t actually say this, but I bet he would)
bourgeois drone
Libturd feeling the Berning Cankles says:
July 15, 2016 at 8:09 am
All my Starbucks and Dunkin orders have been via Mobile app for the past few months and it’s infinitesimally faster and accurate. Plus, there’s nothing better than watching all of those sheep in line sneer when I run in and out with my coffee. Plus, the discounts and promos have me paying probably around $1 per large coffee.
“bourgeois drone”
Thanks. I’ll wear that badge proudly.
Really..160 minute back up at inbound upper deck GWB…..that is over 2.5 hours for you non math majors…
[14] libturd
“Thanks. I’ll wear that badge proudly.”
That’s how we feel about “Masshole”
[8] grim
“You’ll see more companies following and making the investment based on those results.”
I hope not. Then anon and Otto will have even more time to post inane comments on their Obamaphones while sitting around in their parents’ houses.
[11] libturd
I was commenting to a fellow member of your tribe on Facebook who said she could not get her head around the events in France. I reminded her that in Israel, things like this happen on a weekly basis, however the perpetrators rarely are able to kill that many people. I think that is because In Israel, a great number of people are packing heat. Consequently, perpetrators like this often find themselves ventilated long before they are able to get very far.
Story in BNA Pension and Benefits reporter says that New Jersey unions and public interest/advocacy groups will blow through records for spending on referenda.
Thought you would avoid political advertising and outreach because NJ isn’t a competitive state? Think again.
Err how is this not terrorism?
CNN)An explosion in Central Park that seriously injured a tourist during the Fourth of July weekend was caused by the homemade explosive TATP, according to multiple law enforcement officials briefed on the investigation.
The chemicals used to make the improvised explosive were placed in a shopping bag, investigators said. The bag was pressure sensitive and activated when a tourist put his foot on it and triggered the explosion, suffering severe foot injuries.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/14/us/central-park-explosion/
In Israel, security (military) is high at all events. Security is also ingrained into society as everyone must serve (women too). In our pussified country, we can’t even make teenagers do public service.
Coming to a state near you?
“In 2011, Michigan passed the Health Insurance Claims Assessment Act (“the Act” or “the Michigan Act”), 2011 Mich. Pub. Acts 142, codified at Mich. Comp. Laws §§ 550.1731-1741, to generate the revenue necessary to fund Michigan’s obligations under Medicaid. The Act imposes a one-percent tax on all “paid claims” by “carriers” or “third party administrators” for services rendered in Michigan for Michigan residents. . . . ”
On remand from the Supreme Court, the 6th Circuit upheld this law. So cash-strapped states can now start taxing health benefits unless SCOTUS takes the case. And sales taxes are always pass through.
http://www.leagle.com/decision/In%20FCO%2020160701086/SELF-INSURANCE%20INSTITUTE%20OF%20AMERICA,%20INC.%20v.%20SNYDER
re # 19 – Yup the public sector workers now need a constitutional amendment and it will be on the November ballot thanks to the latest court rulings.
VOTE NO FOLKS….. the towns negotiated the teachers pay and they should be made to pay for the largess given out over the last 30 years.
https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey_Public_Worker_Pension_Plan_Amendment_(2016)
Cops and a guy (cop perhaps) on a motorcycle tried to stop the truck.
A motorcycle riding hero died under the wheels of the truck apparently.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/15/motorcycle-hero-tried-to-board-truck-used-in-bastille-day-attack
Google revealed Pokemon Go two years ago and everyone thought it was a joke.
http://www.newsy.com/videos/google-revealed-pokemon-go-2-years-ago-and-we-thought-it-was-a-joke/?utm_campaign=Dynamic&utm_medium=Text&utm_source=Reddit
I spent the end of a dinner last Wednesday night being berated by friends over my views on gun control. I even said at one point you can ban all guns and take them away but if somebody wants to kill a bunch of people they are going to do it. I even brought up that the kid in Newton could just as easily ran over the kids lined before school with an SUV or Truck and killed as many. They all told me that wouldn’t kill nearly as many as an assault weapon. So after Nice when are we going to start that truck ban legislation?
@LKrauss1
Looks like the lying hateful buffoon will choose anti-woman, homophobic faith-head as his running mate.
A confederacy of dunces.
Donate to the Clinton Foundation to get around pay to play.
Does anyone find it unusual that the press is not backing the teachers on the pension issue?
What percentage of the private sector US population receives a pension? 7%. Will never pass.
cool, you must be proud that your “friends” really hate you
HEHEHE says:
July 15, 2016 at 10:43 am
I spent the end of a dinner last Wednesday night being berated by friends
Anon…DICK
20 / 26 –
It is sad, scary, and perhaps ironic note but the actions taken by these extremists are not intended to cause structural damage to western cultures. From what I have read, these organizations are actually run like businesses competing for funding from wealthy nations or individuals.
Consider why attacks are mostly designed with gunman going out in a blaze of glory. If your intent is to cause sustained harm, why waste a valuable resource (the dedicated individual willing to die) in such a futile and short lived effort. Not to downplay the loss of life, but from a strategic perspective you waste substantially more effort then you gain against the enemy in this manner when you consider the toll vs total population.
The attacks we see are more designed to grab headlines and secure additional funding for additional attacks. Take this latest attack where they had explosives / grenades and they were not even used in favor of mowing innocents down with a truck. There are millions of non-hardened or unprotected targets that could drastically impact the way we live as a society that also do not require the loss of their operatives life.
The real targets we need to be worried about simply are not flashy enough to secure the funding these organizations need. No one would care if a telephone pole in the Ozarks is taken down. At least for now.
The new way to not blame Radical Islam:
EXCLUSIVE – ‘He drank alcohol, ate pork and took drugs. He was NOT a Muslim – he was a s***’: Truck terrorist’s cousin reveals he is an ‘unlikely jihadist’ who beat his wife and NEVER went to the mosque
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3691895/He-drank-alcohol-ate-pork-took-drugs-NOT-Muslim-Truck-terrorist-Mohamed-Lahouaiej-Bouhlel-s-cousin-reveals-unlikely-jihadist-beat-wife-NEVER-went-mosque.html
grim – Yeah, but he built it in Morris County in a town that doesn’t rhyme with Schmendham.
I was going to make fun of the Jonas brothers for failing in real estate, but the guy built a nice looking house.
^^^ Apologies in advance to those who live in Smoke Rose;-)
30 – Troll
See, that is what adults call a “discussion” where people of different philosophies come together to discuss ideas that they do not always agree with it. A key feature of a “discussion” is that they listen to each other and still remain cordial even if they cannot come to a common consensus.
I know that is a hard concept for some people to understand given the way discussions are now viewed as “You don’t agree with me so you must be an enemy and your views must be marginalized and silenced in response”.
Lib – The obvious answer is new federal truck control laws and federal driver reform.
Nice to see those tough French gun laws working so well! Maybe we need to tighten them up here?
Seriously I thought of throwing my share of the bill on the table and walking out.
Three guys from NYC area I’ve known for 10 years all looking at me like I was a nut job who had three heads. Felt like Galileo arguing with the Earth-centrists.
Anon is not a troll. That is too kind. He is simply a feeble-minded dolt.
Hero for sure, but I assume the dude on the bike thought it was a runaway truck and not an Islamic terrorist or he wouldn’t as willingly become a speed bump.
The onslaught by the ISIS inspired sect is definitely bad for Hillary, especially when they choose trucks and bombs as their tools of trade. Kind of deflates her gun grab mantra.
She is so desperate to save some of her standing on the security issue that she actually appeared on O’Reilly’s show last night, not that anyone buys it.
Expat [33];
The new way to not blame Radical Islam:
Ahh, the old “No True Scottsman” fallacy.
I had a similar reaction to the press reports about Mateen in Orlando; particularly how his “wife” was so chatty in the press to dirty him up, then literally disappeared.
Moose…Was thinking the same thing. It’s not easy to put yourself in the mindset that you must cowardly take out countless innocent lives. Something triggered it and I doubt it was the divorce alone.
[42] Maybe ISIS is even recruiting at rib joints to perpetuate Radical Islam plausible deniability?
I think the bulk of the world’s problems could be eliminated, or at least largely mitigated, if everyone lived by the same creed as Tom Brady. Rule #1: Be handsome.
Clearly a truck with 8-12 cylinders is too powerful for the populace at large to have access to so we should ban their sale.
I think these are the top 3 philosophical models I’ve learned over the years right here at njrere:
1. Occam’s Razor. (Nom)
2. Assume a can opener. (I forget)
3. No True Scotsman. (Moose)
Or at least legislate them down to 7 or 11 cylinders;-)
Clearly a truck with 8-12 cylinders is too powerful for the populace at large to have access to so we should ban their sale.
Nothing about Anon’s Pavlovian behavior?
Smoking is haram too, but just look at all the hookah joints.
I knew plenty of Muslims growing up that went out drinking, but would deny it vehemently in front of family.
Stu is the bacon king of North Jersey.
ISIS doesn’t seem to have any real problem raping children.
Since when has any of this been a reason for plausible deniability?
[47] expat
I’ve been using #2 since the mid-80’s and have frequently. So I may have used that as well. But its also pretty well known so anyone could have used that here.
[50] grim
“Since when has any of this been a reason for plausible deniability?”
Plausible deniability is for those you wish to convince or at least not alienate. But, following the liberal example, if you have enough true believers, they won’t be alienable so you don’t have to worry about straying from the faith as long as you deliver. The ends justify the means.
[45] expat,
“Tom Brady. Rule #1: Be handsome.”
Nah, that’s the hater talking. Tom Brady Rule No. 1 is Do Your Job. Rule No. 2 is Be Handsom.
why does it change my spelling after it accepts it?
Oh dear, Coup d’Etat in Turkey!
I guess Erdogan’s dream of rebuilding an Ottoman Empire in Europe is on the frits.
His covert support of the mess in Syria and Janus like behavior caused issues mainly with immigration leading to the Brexit vote among other irritations of the powers that.
Powers that are acting fast. Before you Trump gets elected.
Turkish secular military is overthrowing the president and islamist hardliner Erdogan
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/turkey-low-flying-jets-and-gunfire-heard-in-ankara1/
Did anybody else play this French card game 40 years ago? The card tray was green, not red, back then if it helps job your memory:
https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Moves-1034-Collectors-Edition/dp/B00004SDAP
or jog it, for that matter.
S&P 500 crashing after hours? Does Turkey really matter?
Turkish Lira taking a pounding.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=TRY&to=USD&view=12h
Gobble gobble Erdogan, enjoy your plucking!
Just after the market close :)
Guess who has a position in SPXS?
Does Ottoman approve?
I have two extra tickets to Coldplay for tomorrow night Sat 07/16 at MetLife stadium. Great seats – Section 131, Row 4. So far no takers on ticketmaster or craigslist. Tickets cost me $207 each. I will be having a fire sale soon so make an offer if you are interested.
You get to meet me and buy me all the drinks I can handle too.
email seanm123@gmail.com
“Just after the market close :)”
On a Friday.
ExPat [57];
Yes. I thought I had a PC version as well. My kids are probably the right age for it.
Melania Trump’s stump speech?
Look at me. Would it be better for Donald Trump to have unlimited time on his hands to do me? Or would it be better to occupy his time with something else? Vote Trump 2016. Vote that you support hot chicks not getting pounded by old guys…that much.
Meghan McCain to her Dan live just now, “Dad did you see this coming?” McCain, “No.
“
dad
If they were smart they’d have had those insolvent Italian banks and Deutsche Bank get loaded up on shorts of Turkish stocks and currency. Save the EU tax payers from the upcoming bailouts.