Philly – Hottest SFH Market in 10 Years

From the Inquirer:

Phila. single-family home prices, sales volume soar in 2Q, data show

In the spring, Philadelphia’s single-family housing market had its best quarter in a decade, with prices and sales volume surging throughout the city.

The average house value “soared” by 7.3 percent in 2015’s second quarter compared with the first three months of the year, said Kevin Gillen, chief economist of Meyers Research and senior research fellow at Drexel University’s Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation.

Based on single-family home sales data between April 1 and June 30 from the city Recorder of Deeds, Gillen said, the quarterly price rise was the largest since second quarter 2005, at the height of the real estate boom.

“With this increase, average Philadelphia house prices are up 5.4 percent from where they were a year ago, and 14.4 percent since their bottom in the first quarter of 2012,” said Gillen, who tracks the real estate market throughout the Philadelphia area. (His analysis of second-quarter sales in the region will be available in two to three weeks.)

Spring 2015’s median price of $138,600 was up 18 percent from $117,500 in the previous quarter, and 20 percent higher than the $115,000 median of second-quarter 2014, Gillen said. (The report did not include sales of condos, which he defines as multifamily housing.)

Every city neighborhood saw an increase in price – the first time that has occurred since second quarter 2013, he noted.

“It is the hottest market I’ve seen in more than 10 years,” said Carol McCann, an agent with Re/Max Millennium in Fox Chase.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 112 Comments

First sign of cracks in the mega-landlord model

From Bloomberg:

Blackstone Selling 1,300 Atlanta Houses in Strategy Shift

Blackstone Group LP’s Invitation Homes, after spending more than $9 billion in a U.S. property-buying spree, is starting to sell some houses as it shifts focus from rapid expansion to fine-tuning its holdings.

The housing landlord has agreed to sell about 1,300 Atlanta-area residences that don’t fit its strategy, which targets communities with higher rents and quality schools, according to Chief Executive Officer John Bartling. The transaction would be the biggest bulk sale for the 3-year-old company, the largest U.S. owner of single-family homes.

“It’s that stage in our lives where we’re now in a position of looking at dispositions as an active part of portfolio balance,” Bartling said in an interview. “You should expect us to sell 5 percent of our portfolio every year.”

Blackstone led private equity firms, hedge funds and other large investors in buying thousands of houses after the real estate crash, creating a new asset class of single-family rentals. With the market recovering, landlords are seeking ways to increase profitability by raising rents and making operations more efficient. For Invitation Homes, paring its portfolio may also help it in preparation for a potential initial public offering, which Blackstone has said it could be ready for in the next two years.

Most of the Atlanta houses in the sale are worth less than the average Blackstone-owned home. Lower-value properties tend to have higher vacancy, turnover and capital spending rates, according to Brian Grow, managing director in the credit-ratings unit of Morningstar Inc.

“The lower-value properties are much higher touch,” Grow said. “If you own a huge portfolio nationwide and you want consistency on how you manage the properties and you don’t want as high touch, I think the higher-value properties can be beneficial.”

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 88 Comments

Seems that everyone is taking shots at Jersey lately…

From Realtor.com (yes, realtor.com):

More Bad News for New Jersey? Or Is It Good News for the Middle Class?

If we can’t blame New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie for the traffic jams, maybe he can’t take the hit for this news either: While home prices are spiking in the rest of the country, in the home state of Tony Soprano, they’re still more than 20% below the 2006 peak, according to a report from CoreLogic.

No, it’s not that people are stuck in traffic and can’t get to the open houses, or that too many goodfellas are getting whacked. It’s that the number of foreclosed properties is high (8.12% according to the Mortgage Bankers Association).

Is it just that those “Joisey” folk live waaaaay beyond their means (Hello, Teresa Giudice!)? Not entirely. It’s a kind of stagnation.

“People are both unwilling to list their homes and are unwilling to buy, in many cases, because they fear that their prices will be undercut when these distressed mortgages finally go to market,” said economic researcher Patrick O’Keefe of CohnReznick in Roseland. New Jersey’s population growth is also to blame. It’s half the national average, which in turn keeps the demand to buy a home down.

To be fair to the Garden State (so called, the joke goes, because “Oil, Petroleum, Nuclear, Landfill, and Toxic Waste State” didn’t fit on a license plate), home prices are rising (3% from the year before—about a $150,000 average sales price at last count).

And that’s actually good news, at least for home buyers: Perhaps New Jersey, despite its record high income taxes, can maintain its place as the everyman’s state, and can be one of the last refuges for the middle class in the New York City area.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 47 Comments

Brooklyn hits record highs

From Crains NY:

Brooklyn housing boom pushes sale prices and rentals to new highs

Rents and home prices reached record levels in Brooklyn during the second quarter of 2015, according to a market report released Thursday.

The average sale price for a Brooklyn home reached a record $788,529 during the second quarter, according to a report by Douglas Elliman Real Estate. The price inched above the previous high-water mark the same time last year by $5,233. Historically low inventory, a lack of new product being built and tight credit conditions contributed to the increase.

As a consequence, many people who would have purchased a home continued to rent, especially in popular Brooklyn neighborhoods. That pushed median rent in the northwestern portion of Brooklyn, which runs from Greenpoint and Williamsburg down through Park Slope, to an all-time high of $2,964 a month.

“Whether you’re renting or buying, you’re looking at higher housing costs,” said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Miller Samuel, the firm that prepared Douglas Elliman’s report. “As a general rule, this is not necessarily a good thing for a city that is creating jobs, because the people who fill them might not be able to afford to live here.”

Granted, Brooklyn did record a 35% increase in the supply of for-sale homes compared with the same period last year, according to a report from the Corcoran Group. But those apartments came on the market after three quarters of declining inventory, and were being snapped up at a historically high pace, only sitting on the market for an average 71 days.

Meanwhile in Manhattan, the median rent rose 2.1% to $3,369 a month in the second quarter, according to the Douglas Elliman report. And just last week, a flurry of market reports noted that the average sale price there also reached an all-time high.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, NYC | 109 Comments

HUD to tell you who you are permitted to live next to

From HousingWire:

HUD’s social engineering is coming to your neighborhood

Look out American neighborhoods, you’re about to get engineered good and hard.

Why? Because market pricing is now considered discrimination.

In fact, any neighborhood that doesn’t meet with the approval of a demographic spreadsheet model in the bowels of some government bureaucrat’s office is considered discrimination.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced a final rule today for the “affirmatively furthering fair housing program” but the debate is far from being final.

Under the program, the federal government will collect large sums of personal data on the makeup of neighborhoods throughout the country searching for evidence of “disparities by race, color, religion, sex, familial status, national origin, or disability in access to community assets” — even though there is no evidence of actual discrimination. And, in fact, such discrimination has been illegal since 1968.

Those communities that don’t fit the demographic models — let’s be frank here, they’re quotas — of “What Should Be” will have to be re-engineered by the smarter minds that are federal government bureaucrats. (What do you know about your own neighborhood? They know better.)

Those communities that don’t measure up to the spreadsheets will be targeted for correction, using billions in grants, as well as government blackmail (think how highway funds are used to bully states) to change their zoning, so that neighborhoods full of successful, prosperous people who worked to build their homes and their peaceful communities will be forced to welcome neighbors who haven’t worked for it, and who don’t value it.

Welcome to Fair Housing 2015, where market pricing is discrimination.

According to the Obama administration’s own wording, “housing choices continue to be constrained through housing discrimination, the operation of housing markets, [and] investment choices by holders of capital.”

There it is. Right there. Sounds like Piketty or Marx, but it’s the White House.

Not in black and white, but in green — as in the color of money and the color of envy.

This is social engineering at its worst, and a violation of basic local zoning and (trigger warning) freedom of association.

Also, consider that they want to eliminate neighborhoods that they say have a demographic imbalance. Well, by that logic, we’d never have any Little Italy’s, Chinatowns, or any other ethnic enclaves that celebrate cultures. Gone is the revival by middle and upper-class black people in places like Harlem in New York and Oak Cliff in my own Dallas. No more Koreatown, no more Little Mexico. So much for celebrating diversity.

With any luck, the next administration, Democrat or Republican, will reject this class-warfare attack on “discrimination by the holders of capital.” But democracy isn’t exactly the best bulwark for preserving freedom and free markets.

As H.L. Mencken said, and from which I borrowed for my lede, “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”

Well, here it comes again. You’re about to be bureaucratically and culturally enriched.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 132 Comments

Finally a good time to sell?

From HousingWire:

Consumer attitudes on housing signal healthier purchase market ahead

Americans’ outlook toward the current home selling market and the future of home rental prices may bode well for purchase activity this year, according to results from Fannie Mae’s June 2015 National Housing Survey.

Amid continued strong job and income growth, consumers are looking more favorably on the current selling climate, perhaps portending an uptick in the existing home supply.

“Our June survey results show the positive impact on housing of job and income growth,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “The expectation of higher rents is a natural outgrowth of increasing household formation by newly employed individuals putting upward pressure on rental rates. A complementary rise in the good time to sell measure suggests that limited inventory, which is putting upward pressure on house prices, gives an increasing advantage to sellers.

“Together, these results point to a healthier home purchase market, with more renters likely to find owning to be more cost-effective than renting and more sellers likely to put their homes on the market,” Duncan said.

Among those surveyed, the share who believe now is a good time to sell a home reached a new survey high, increasing three percentage points to 52% and crossing the 50-percent threshold for the first time in the survey’s history. At the same time, the share who said they expect home rental prices to go up in the next 12 months rose four percentage points to 59%, also an all-time survey high.

Here are some highlights:

The average 12-month home price change expectation fell to 2.6%.

The share of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months fell to 47%. The share who say home prices will go down rose to 7%.

The share of respondents who say mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months rose 3 percentage points to 50%.

Those who say it is a good time to buy a house fell to 63% – tying a survey low – while those who say it is a good time to sell rose to 52% – a new survey high.

The average 12-month rental price change expectation fell to 4.2%.

The percentage of respondents who expect home rental prices to go up rose to 59% – a new survey high.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 164 Comments

NJ 23th largest economy in the world

From the Star Ledger:

N.J.’s economy would crack world’s Top 25 if it was its own country, report says

New Jersey’s economic growth fared worse than nearly every other state in the nation last year.

But the state’s gross domestic product is roughly the same size as Poland’s, according to a map created by an economist at the American Enterprise Institute.

The gross domestic product in New Jersey grew by 0.4 percent in 2014, federal data shows, to roughly $504 billion. That increase ranked New Jersey 46th nationwide. Only Maine, Virginia, Mississippi and Alaska had lower rates of growth last year.

Using data on gross domestic products from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the International Monetary Fund, Mark J. Perry, the editor of the Carpe Diem blog for American Enterprise Institute, matched the economic output of states to those of countries and mapped the results.

“It’s pretty amazing how ridiculously large the US economy is, and the map above helps put America’s GDP of nearly $18 trillion in 2014 into perspective by comparing the GDP of US states to other country’s entire national GDP,” Perry wrote in a June 10 blog post .

California’s $2.31 trillion in economic output in 2014 is just short of Brazil’s gross domestic product in the same year, according to Perry, while Texas is about equal to Canada and New York is similar to Spain.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 95 Comments

The difference between NJ and CA real estate

In NJ, if you have a stalker you can’t sell the house. In SF, if you find a dead body during the home inspection, nobody cares.

From HousingWire:

Corpse found in $1M San Francisco house for sale – Price could go higher

A mummified corpse of the homeowner was found in a Lake District Victorian house for sale in San Francisco, according to an article from SocketSite.

The article explained that the homeowner’s daughter, who was living in the house, was a hoarder.

Despite all this, the home still received a bid of $1 million, and the final price could go higher.

As the mother’s death was never reported, the sale will require court confirmation. And while the $1,029,500 bid for the house has tentatively been accepted, interested parties will have an opportunity to bid higher at the probate hearing for the estate, the date for which has yet to be scheduled.

Posted in Humor | 90 Comments

Yeah, New Jersey stinks. Stinks like money.

I hear people complain about the drive up or down 95, it stinks, dark and dank industrial wasteland. Miles and miles of warehouse, factory, smokestacks, power plants, shipping containers, garbage dumps.

It’s beautiful.

You can keep your scenic roadways and parks, we’ll keep the industry that makes us the one of the most economically productive areas in the entire world, and one of the wealthiest areas in the world.

Where do people think jobs come from? Where manufacturing takes place? Where shipping and trade happen? In quaint downtowns with pretty tree lined streets? On fancy dot com campuses with rainbow slides and sleeping pods? Get real you idiots.

Next time you drive down the turnpike, open your eyes and revel in the economic powerhouse that is not only critical to the Northeast, but the entire United States. Want to see the greatest wonder of the new economic world? Drive through the Northeast corridor of the US, the one where we’re at the heart.

By the way, stay the f*ck out if you don’t like us.

From CBS:

New Jersey Residents: Poll Ranking State As Nation’s Least Likeable ‘Stinks’

A recent poll was not winning too many fans in New Jersey Friday, after it ranked the Garden State dead last in favorability among the 50 states.

As CBS2’s Dave Carlin reported, those who really know New Jersey praise the people as great, and the real estate as prime – with beautiful sights like the waterfalls in Nutley.

But others dismiss the state as a land of mobsters and grime.

“I don’t think the Sopranos helped the state of New Jersey,” said Charles Derios of Newark.

Indeed, Hollywood stereotypes got the blame for the poll results from YouGov that slammed the Garden State as the place to hate.
The survey asked Americans to rate the states, and New Jersey came dead last – as least likable of 50.

In fact, New Jersey was the only state for which more respondents had an unfavorable opinion than a favorable one. Forty percent of poll respondents rated New Jersey unfavorably, and 30 percent rated the state favorably – giving the state a net favorability rating of minus 10 percent, according to YouGov.

A YouGov article on the poll said the state has an image problem in popular cuture.

“The popular image of New Jersey often falls somewhere between the MTV show ‘Jersey Shore,’ HBO’s award winning mafia drama ‘The Sopranos’ and the chemical plants and gray industrial landscape stretched along I-95 that inspired much of the work of Bruce Springsteen,” Peter Moore wrote for YouGov.

Dwayne Quinn of New Orleans spoke to 1010 WINS’ Al Jones on Thursday about the poll. He said there simply isn’t much in New Jersey.

“I mean I’ve heard it as the armpit capital of the world or even the butt crack capital of the world. You know, there’s not much that attracts,” he said.

But one New Jersey resident responded, “I think it stinks.”

Posted in Humor, New Jersey Real Estate | 77 Comments

NY Metro Home Prices up 2.8% in April

From the Record:

Region’s home prices tick up 2.8%

As the housing market continues to recover, single-family home prices in the New York metropolitan area ticked up 2.8 percent in the year that ended in April, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes reported Tuesday.

Nationally, prices rose 4.2 percent, according to Case-Shiller.

Home prices in the region are back to the levels of July 2004 and remain about 18.7 percent below their peaks in mid-2006, according to Case-Shiller Nationally, home values are at the levels of autumn 2004, about 14 percent to 16 percent below their peaks.

“Home prices continue to rise across the country, but the pace is not accelerating,” David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “Recent housing data is positive. Sales of new and existing homes are rising, and construction of new homes enjoyed strong gains in May.”

Prices in the region didn’t fall as far as national averages during the housing crash, so they have not rebounded as quickly as the market has recovered. In addition, home values in New Jersey are under downward pressure from a large backlog of distressed properties heading into foreclosure. And New Jersey’s job market has been slower to heal after the recession than the national employment market, which has limited the ability of many families to buy homes. New Jersey’s unemployment rate of 6.5 percent is a full percentage point above the national rate.

Case-Shiller does not break out home values by county, but according to New Jersey Realtors, single-family prices in Bergen County were a median $462,500 in April, up 6.9 percent from April 2014. The median in Passaic was $282,250, up 3.8 percent from a year earlier.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 54 Comments

Cash sales top 48% in NJ

From Inman:

All-cash purchases, institutional investors saw record lows in May single-family market

The percentage of single-family homes and condos purchased with all cash or by institutional investors hit record lows in May.

Nearly 25 percent of all home sales in May were all cash purchases, according to RealtyTrac’s U.S. Home & Foreclosure Sales Report. This figure represents the lowest level of all-cash closings since November 2009. A year ago, more than 30 percent of buyers closed with all cash.

The share of institutional investors — entities purchasing at least ten properties in a calendar month — dropped to 2.4 percent of single-family home sales in May, the lowest level since January 2000.

The most common states for all cash deals in May were New Jersey and Florida, with these transactions accounting for nearly 48 percent of all sales in both locales. New York (38.8 percent) and Massachusetts (37.1 percent) followed.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 114 Comments

New highs for NYC, over the river … notsomuch

From the NYT:

Average Home Price in Manhattan Reaches $1.87 Million, a New High

After flirting with records for more than a year, the average sales price of a Manhattan apartment hit a new high in the second quarter, according to at least two reports to be released on Wednesday by major real estate brokerage firms.

A strong local economy, combined with high demand and not enough listings, pushed the average sales price up 11 percent, to $1.87 million, compared with the same period in 2014, surpassing the previous peak of $1.77 million reached in the first quarter of last year, according to Jonathan J. Miller, the president of the appraisal firm Miller Samuel and the author of a report for Douglas Elliman Real Estate.

The median sales price, which measures the middle of the market and is less affected by high-end sales, was $980,000, just behind the record of $1.025 million set in the second quarter of 2008, before the financial crisis hit, according to Miller Samuel.

“It’s like everyone revved up their engines again,” said Pamela Liebman, the chief executive of the Corcoran Group, which put the record average sales price at $1.81 million and the median at $960,000. “We saw continuous demand across all price points, buoyed by some exciting new developments that have come on the market and a continued influx of buyers from China.”

“In all my years of doing this,” she added, “I have never seen such a hunger for New York City real estate.”

The higher prices were driven by two key factors. Inventory growth has begun to stall, especially in the resale market, where potential sellers are reluctant to list their properties as they are often outbid, turned down for loans or simply cannot find what they are looking for. The number of available listings barely budged, up 1.3 percent in the second quarter to 5,730, compared with a year ago, according to Douglas Elliman.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, NYC | 121 Comments

Pending Home Sales Hits Post-Recession Highs

From the WSJ:

U.S. Pending Home Sales at Highest Level in Nine Years

A forward-looking indicator of home sales rose to its highest level in more than nine years in May, a sign the housing market is gaining traction after a shaky start to the year.

The National Association of Realtors said Monday its index of pending home sales increased 0.9% to a seasonally-adjusted 112.6, the highest level since April 2006. The index tracks contract signings, which usually close within two months.

The April index was revised down to 111.6 from 112.4.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 1.2% increase in May.

“The steady pace of solid job creation seen now for over a year has given the housing market a boost this spring,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said.

Monday’s index was “a little softer than expectations,” wrote Daniel Silver of J.P. Morgan in a note. “But the trend in the series still looks favorable, with pending sales up for five straight months through May.”

First-time home buyers also started making their way back to the real-estate market last month.

But existing home sales, which account for about 90% of the market, are still well below their prerecession peak, when they routinely exceeded 6 million and even topped 7 million for part of 2005.

Prices have also been rising lately. The median price of an existing home last month was $228,700, or 7.9% higher than in May 2014.

“Housing affordability remains a pressing issue with home-price growth increasing around four times the pace of wages,” Mr. Yun said.

Pending home sales rose 6.3% in the Northeast and 2.2% in the West but fell 0.6% in the Midwest and 0.8% in the South.

Posted in Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 86 Comments

Home prices setting new records in April

From HousingWire:

Black Knight: Home prices rise 1% in April from March

U.S. home prices were up 1% for the month, rising 4.9% on a year-over-year basis, according to Black Knight’s latest Home Price Index report, based on April 2015 residential real estate transactions.

This puts national home prices up nearly 3% since the start of the year and up just under 24% since the bottom of the market at the start of 2012.
At $248,000, the national level HPI is now just 7.6% off its June 2006 peak of $268,000.

Washington led gains among the states, seeing 2.0% month-over-month appreciation, while Seattle led metro areas with 2.2% growth from March.
Detroit, Michigan; San Jose, California, and Ft Collins, Colorado all saw home prices rise 2.0% for the month, making them three of the nation’s best performing metro areas.

Among the nation’s 20 largest states, four hit new peaks in April:

Colorado ($294K)

New York ($345K)

Tennessee ($174K)

Texas ($208K)

Of the nation’s 40 largest metros, 10 hit new peaks:

Austin, TX ($277K)

Columbus, OH ($181K)

Dallas, TX ($209K)

Denver, CO ($314K)

Honolulu, HI ($526K)

Houston, TX ($214K)

Nashville, TN ($213K)

San Antonio, TX ($189K)

San Francisco, CA ($701K)

San Jose, CA ($847K)

Both Boston, MA and Portland, OR are within 0.75% of reaching new peaks.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 87 Comments

Peek into the Lower Hudson Valley Market

From Lohud.com:

The slump is over: real estate is back

Looks like very good news for homeowners across the Lower Hudson Valley — experts are saying that the multi-year real estate slump is finally over.

“It’s the best market we’ve had since 2007, both in price and the velocity of sales,” said Arthur Scinta of Houlihan Lawrence, who works exclusively in the red-hot Pelhams.

In Rockland, the number of home sales is up 16 percent this spring compared to 2014. In Putnam, they shot up 23 percent compared to last spring. Westchester has seen a more temperate increase of 6 percent.

“It’s a sellers’ market,” said Brian Levine, manager of the Houlihan Lawrence office in Irvington, another strong market.”We’re seeing bidding wars, we’re seeing all-cash offers. We’re sending people away with really good credit. They’re not getting the houses they want because people are showing up with all cash, and as we all know cash is king.”

The endless winter we endured put a big damper on the early spring real estate market, leaving buyers and sellers alike huddled indoors behind mountains of snow. Who wants to put their home on the market when you can’t even goose up the curb appeal with basics like a newly painted front door and fresh landscaping?

But for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and for certain price points the market has come roaring back to life these last couple of months.

Some houses are selling very fast. “I listed a house on May 13th in West Harrison and we had signed contracts on it by the evening of the 20th,” said Wendy Alper, an agent with Julia B. Fee Sotheby’s International Realty in Rye.

It’s definitely a seller’s market, Scinta said. At least 30 of the 59 houses sold in Pelham so far this year had multiple bids. “Generally, that translates into over the asking price,” he said.

Buyer demand remains strong locally and a shortage of homes on the market continues to be a problem, Levine said. “There is a severe inventory shortage across the nation, and that’s true here as well.”

In Yonkers, Jane McAfee of Houlihan Lawrence has seen a very low inventory since January. “At the beginning of the year there were 199 houses on the market in Yonkers, and for Yonkers that’s not many,” she said. On June 1, 2014, for example, there were 304 single-family homes for sale in the city.

“It’s unlike any spring market I’ve been in — and I’ve been doing this for 21 years — because it’s so late,” McAfee said. “It’s not just that there were storms, it was so bad all winter long. People were not getting their houses ready — they certainly couldn’t do any work outside.”

In most years, “we’d be at the tail end of the spring market now, but we’re still in the thick of it,” said Levine, the Irvington manager. “We’re seeing a lot of activity. I keep looking at the calendar and saying it should be starting to slow down now.”

“The closer to New York City the better — Pelham, Bronxville, Larchmont, the river towns (Dobbs Ferry, Hastings-on-Hudson, Irvington and Tarrytown),” said Scinta, the Pelham agent. “The market is always driven by the city and it rolls north. As the market recovers, it pushes its way up.”

Posted in Housing Recovery, NYC | 30 Comments