Sandy’s Foreclosures

From the NY Daily News:

Even with surge in foreclosures post-Sandy, real estate prices in Queens, Brooklyn rise

One year after Hurricane Sandy, New York area homeowners are drowning under a wave of foreclosure notices.

In a sign that Sandy victims can’t keep up with their mortgage payments or are choosing to abandon their battered homes, foreclosure activity in New York City and Long Island surged 33% in the first nine months of the year, compared with the same period last year, according to a special report from RealtyTrac.

“People whose homes were damaged are making the decision to walk away because it doesn’t make financial sense to keep making those mortgage payments,” RealtyTrac vice president Daren Blomquist told the Daily News.

The survey counted all types of foreclosure notices: default notices – which come early on when homeowners skip payments – scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions.

Not surprisingly, the two boroughs that got hit the worst, Queens and Staten Island, saw the biggest foreclosure notice surge. Activity was up 61% in Queens and 40% in Staten Island.

The number of homes hit with foreclosure papers in the Bronx rose 39%. The increase in Brooklyn was 28%.

Foreclosed homes sold by banks are going fast.

“There is a line of buyers to buy those homes because they are priced under the market,” Laffey said. “They are selling within a matter of days.”

Posted in Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 139 Comments

Otteau: NJ home prices to rise 5% per year

From the Record:

NJ home values to rise 5% a year, appraiser predicts

A growing demand for housing will push up New Jersey home prices about 5 percent a year for the next several years, appraiser Jeff Otteau predicted Tuesday.

The state’s slowly improving job picture is “like oxygen to the housing recovery,” Otteau said at a seminar in East Hanover for real estate agents.

Otteau, an East Brunswick appraiser who researches real estate statewide, said the state is on track to add about 40,000 jobs this year, after adding more than 66,000 last year – the highest number in more than a decade. However, New Jersey’s unemployment rate was still 8.5 percent in August, compared with a national rate of 7.3 percent. Moreover, the state lost jobs in July and August, though Otteau said that was largely the result of sluggish hiring at the shore because of damage from Superstorm Sandy.

Bergen County is among the areas leading the way in the housing revival, with a five-month supply of homes for sale, said Otteau, whose reports are widely followed in the industry. A supply below eight months generally results in rising prices. Passaic has a 6.4-month supply.

Eight of the 21 hottest markets in the state are in Bergen County, according to Otteau: Glen Rock, Wyckoff, Midland Park, North Arlington, Ridgewood, Emerson, Mahwah and Ho-Ho-Kus.

Otteau’s optimistic outlook was matched Tuesday by new data from the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which said that prices in the New York metropolitan area, including North Jersey, rose 3.6 percent from August 2012 to August 2013. Nationally, home prices were up by a more substantial 12.8 percent year over year. Both nationally and in the region, prices are back to the levels of mid-2004, and about 20 percent below the housing-boom peaks of mid-2006.

The area’s home prices have not been rising as quickly as national averages recently in part because they didn’t fall as far during the housing bust, and have less ground to make up. In addition, the foreclosure process in the region is among the slowest in the nation, leaving an overhang of distressed properties that put downward pressure on prices.

Otteau said that several New Jersey housing markets are still suffering, including the market for 55-and-up housing; the market for homes priced above $2.5 million, and markets in South Jersey and Sussex County, which are far from job centers. With gasoline above $3 a gallon, home buyers don’t want long commutes, Otteau said.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 100 Comments

Forbes: Don’t worry about inventory or affordability

From Forbes:

Forget Affordability — Housing’s Trends Signal A Bright Future

It seems that whenever something happens in the housing market, a flock of articles pop up explaining why the signs are ominous and housing is destined to flounder. To me, the oddest one has to do with existing home sales this year. Prices have risen, and the inventory of homes for sale has fallen. This happy concurrence has been met with tsk-tsking that both changes will harm the recovery.

The rationale is that the shrinking inventory is causing the house price rise, making homes less affordable and undercutting the buying needed to sustain the recovery. However, these shifts are actually welcome signs – proof that housing is finally shaking off both the Great Recession and the excesses of the preceding housing bubble.

1. The 2001 recession following the Internet bubble-burst had little effect on house sales and inventory. Note that the ratio of sales to inventory held steady around 2.5.

2. Then the housing bubble took hold, driving sales up. Inventory also rose but at a slower pace, pushing the ratio up to a peak of over 3.

3. In late-2005, early-2006 the reversal in the housing market took hold. Inventory jumped both because of the natural buildup of unsold homes amid falling sales and because of speculators deciding to sell properties. These contrary moves (sales down, inventory up) produced a sharp drop in the ratio to a low of only 1.2.

4. In 2008 and 2009 the Great Recession and housing bubble-burst kept the ratio low as sales remained down and financial strains kept the listing coming.

5. Then, beginning in 2010, sales began their steady rise eating into the inventory, producing a fast rise in the sales-to-inventory ratio.

6. This year the moves have taken us back to what Realtor.com calls “equilibrium.” Note that sales, inventory and the ratio have all completed their recovery to pre-bubble levels

That last observation deserves emphasis: The existing house sales, the for-sale listings and the ratio between the two are back to the healthy levels that existed prior to the housing bubble and the subsequent Great Recession and bubble-burst. In addition, Realtor.com’s recent press release states the quality of listings is up, as shown by the “median days on the market” declining 10% since last year to 93. Moreover, the sales/inventory/price improvements are occurring virtually everywhere, even those markets previously hardest hit.

The decrease in existing for-sale housing inventory and the increase in sales and prices are neither abnormal nor ominous. Rather, the housing market is emerging fully from its bubble-and-bust period with regained health. Inventory levels, sales and prices also set the stage for continued improvement. Therefore, we can expect to see more good news coming – most likely when the 2014 spring/summer selling season emerges. It looks as though 2013 could be the pivotal year needed to produce a bright future in housing.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 174 Comments

Warren Buffett loves real estate

From Bloomberg:

Buffett Says Gains in Housing Fall Short of Equilibrium

Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A), said the U.S. housing market has made progress and still has a way to go in recovering.

“It’s coming back,” Buffett, 83, said yesterday during an event at the New York Public Library. “Pricing is better in almost all markets by a reasonable percentage from a few years ago. Housing starts are up somewhat. They still are not where I would regard as an equilibrium point, where they match household formation.”

A rebounding housing market has helped Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire’s subsidiaries that make carpet, bricks, insulation and houses. Some of those businesses have expanded in recent years through acquisitions as the industry recovers from the worst slump in seven decades.

Buffett has been predicting a real estate revival for years and positioning his company to benefit from it. He said in early 2010 that the turnaround would probably begin “within a year or so.” While that call proved wrong, he has since reiterated that the industry would rebound because of increasing population and limited supply.

Berkshire also has invested in some of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders, including Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and Bank of America Corp.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 45 Comments

Mortgage rates dip, will we see 3.xx% again?

From HousingWire:

Mortgage rates fall to four-month lows

Fixed mortgage rates spiraled down this week amid market speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue to commit to its bond buying purchases this year.

Consequently, mortgage rates declined to four-month lows as the industry deals with weak jobs numbers and the aftermath of the government shutdown.

The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage came in at 4.13%, down from 4.28% last week, but up from 3.41% last year, Freddie Mac said in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

“Mortgage rates slid this week as the partial government shutdown led to market speculation that the Federal Reserve will not alter its bond purchases this year,” said Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist Frank Nothaft.

The 15-year, FRM decreased to 3.24%, down from 3.33% last week and a steep rebound from 2.72% last year.

Meanwhile, the 5-year Treasury-index adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3%, dropping from 3.07% last week, but an increase from 2.75% a year ago.

Additionally, the 1-year Treasury-index ARM came in at 2.6%, down from 2.63% last week, but up from 2.59% a year earlier.

Bankrate also witnessed mortgage rates hitting a four-month low as a result of the government shutdown’s aftershock on the market, and disappointing jobs report — driving investors into the haven of government bonds, which resulted in lower yields.

Bankrate’s 30-year FRM dropped to 4.27% from 4.42% a week earlier.

Additionally, the 15-year, FRM decreased to 3.37%, down from 3.49%, while the 5/1 ARM dropped to 3.27%, down from 3.31%.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, Mortgages | 75 Comments

Born to run

From the WSJ:

Home Sales Heating Up

Long Island home sales, which slumbered when the market perked up across the U.S., jumped in the third quarter to their highest level since 2006.

Sales also were up elsewhere across the region—New Jersey, Westchester County and New York City—at a time when home sales appeared to be cooling off nationwide.

Median prices also rose across most of the region, and the inventory of homes on the market shrank, suggesting prices may continue to increase at least in the near term, analysts said.

In one sought-after New Jersey suburb, Glen Ridge, a less than seven-week supply of homes remained on the market at the current sales pace, according to Jeffrey G. Otteau, a New Jersey appraiser and analyst and president of the Otteau Valuation Group. Nearby Montclair had a 2 1/2 -month supply.

Mr. Otteau said the region was just catching up to the housing recovery that had long bypassed the suburbs. He said the comeback showed the first signs of life in 2009 in Manhattan, where federal bailouts for banks “created a soft landing” for real-estate buyers. It then spread in 2010 to the Midwest and Northwest where manufacturing had surged.

“The housing rebound started later than the rest of the country and therefore it has longer to run,” he said. “The housing market is still strengthening.”

In New Jersey, Mr. Otteau said sales in September were up 9% over the previous September. Preliminary figures showed median prices were up 5.5% in the third quarter from the same period in 2012, the fourth consecutive quarter of price improvement.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 65 Comments

Housing affordability drags down sales

From Forbes:

Existing Homes Sales Fall In September As Housing Becomes Less Affordable

Well it shouldn’t necessarily come as a surprise. Sales of previously owned homes fell 1.9% in September from a month earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors, as the summertime spike in mortgage rates pressured activity and housing affordability decreased.

“Affordability has fallen to a five-year low as home price increases easily outpaced income growth,” says Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist. “Expected rising mortgage interest rates will further lower affordability in upcoming months.”

The annual pace of existing home sales slipped to 5.29 million, in line with economists’ expectations. NAR also downwardly revised its August estimate to 5.39 million, meaning activity was closer to a near-four-year high rather than the six-and-a-half-year high initially reported by NAR.

Still, September existing home sales are 10.7% higher than a year ago and activity has remained higher than year-ago levels for a consecutive 27 months now.

Despite the decrease in sales activity, homes continue to trade at prices higher than a year ago. Nationally, the median existing-home price in September was $199,200 — an 11.7% yearly jump. NAR notes that median prices have climbed at double-digit year-over-year rates for 10 straight months now. Higher prices have bitten into affordability levels as well.

The Realtors chalk rising prices up to still-tight inventory levels. Total housing inventory, comprised of single-family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops, remained unchanged in September with 2.2 million existing homes listed for sale. At the current pace, that represents a 5-month supply; a healthy market is typically comprised of a six-month supply.

Since sales of existing homes can take up to two months to close, September’s report reflects the effects rising mortgage rates and home prices have been having on prospective buyers.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 77 Comments

Foreclosure Schmoreclosure

From the WSJ:

Foreclosure Haunts Next Home Purchase

Jumbo borrowers who went into foreclosure a few years ago are learning the hard way: You can’t go home again.

Affluent home buyers attempting to get back into real estate after defaulting on their home loan are finding that few lenders are willing to work with them. Those that do often impose long waiting periods, higher down payments and higher interest rates.

Since spring, lenders say they have increasingly been hearing from would-be buyers who went through foreclosure. “We get the calls routinely,” says Al Engel, executive vice president at Valley National Bank, based in Wayne, N.J.

Callers include self-employed borrowers whose income dropped during the recession, causing them to fall behind on their mortgages, but who have since financially recovered. Also affected are borrowers who walked away from their homes after their values plummeted and owed more on their mortgage than the house was worth. Now that home values have stopped falling in most housing markets, they want back in.

Borrowers who intentionally default—the ones who walked away from their homes—are less likely to be approved for another mortgage soon after. Lenders that originate private jumbos often follow guidelines set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which require strategic defaulters to have re-established their credit profile for at least seven years after foreclosure in order to get a mortgage.

But experts say more flexibility among lenders could emerge in the next year. A recent change allows certain borrowers to become eligible for mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration in as little as one year after their foreclosure. Previously the waiting period was at least three years. “This may be an influence on the private lenders to loosen a little bit on their waiting period,” says Daren Blomquist vice president at RealtyTrac.

Borrowers who overcame a financial hardship that was out of their control and improved their credit profile and are shopping for a mortgage should consider smaller lenders. Valley National Bank and Fremont Bank, which is based in the San Francisco Bay area, say they are open to working with some private jumbo applicants in as little as 2½ to three years, respectively, after the date of foreclosure.

Posted in Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, Risky Lending | 79 Comments

October Beige Book

From the Federal Reserve:

Beige Book — October 16, 2013 Second District–New York

Economic growth in the Second District has continued at a moderate pace since the last report. Contacts indicate some increase in cost pressures, though selling prices continue to be steady to up slightly. Labor market conditions have shown further signs of improvement, and there are scattered reports of wage pressures. General merchandise retailers indicate that sales were generally steady in September and close to plan, while new auto sales have been increasingly robust. Tourism activity has shown some signs of picking up since the last report. Commercial and especially residential real estate markets have shown signs of firming. In contrast, contacts in the manufacturing sector report a pause in growth, and the climate in the financial sector is described as downbeat. Bankers report softer loan demand from the household sector, no change in credit standards, little change in loan spreads, and continued widespread declines in delinquency rates. More broadly, some contacts express concern about potential disruptive effects of a prolonged federal government shutdown.

Construction and Real Estate

Residential real estate markets in the District have been steady to stronger since the last report. Buffalo-area contacts continue to describe market conditions as robust in both August and September, with brisk sales volume, moderately rising prices, and continued reports of bidding wars. Sales activity in New York City’s co-op and condo market was exceptionally brisk in the third quarter–the highest since 2007 and the 2nd highest in 24 years. Sales of smaller (one bedroom) apartments were particularly strong. The inventory of available apartments for sale has fallen to new lows, as completed transactions are outnumbering the flow of new listings. Whereas Manhattan prices have risen only modestly, prices for Brooklyn apartments are reported to be up 10-15 percent over the past year. New York City’s rental market has been mixed: while Manhattan rents have stopped rising and are down slightly from a year ago, Brooklyn rents have been rising at a more than 10 percent pace.

A contact in New Jersey’s housing industry reports continued gradual improvement in market conditions. Prices continue to rise modestly, held back by a persistent overhang of distressed properties. The Jersey shore sales market remains tepid, with prices still well below their pre-recession peaks–particularly in areas hard hit by Sandy last October.

Office markets were steady to stronger in the third quarter. Manhattan’s vacancy rate declined to 7.3 percent–its lowest level in more than four years–while asking rents continued to rise, particularly on Class B properties. Long Island’s office vacancy rate also edged down below 8 percent, though asking rents were little changed. In the northern New Jersey and Westchester/Fairfield markets, however, vacancy rates were unchanged at much higher levels, while asking rents were little changed. A New Jersey real estate contact maintains that non-residential construction activity is almost strictly limited to renovations and improvements on existing properties.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 72 Comments

We’re all the US Government now

From MarketWatch:

Mortgage rates could spike if U.S. defaults

Democrats and Republicans have two days to reach a deal before the government breaches the debt ceiling. Should a default occur, mortgage applicants could face a worst-case scenario that includes rates that rise by as much as one to two percentage points within a day or so, says Stu Feldstein, president of mortgage-research firm SMR Research. “Interest rates would go through the roof immediately,” he says.

In order for such a spike to occur — and last more than just a few days — several scenarios would have to play out. Besides defaulting on its debt, the U.S. government would have to signal that it isn’t planning on making its payments soon or it would have to take the position of not intervening to stabilize the mortgage market. Analysts say complete inaction is unlikely since a severe increase in rates would lead to a drop in mortgage applications that would stall the housing recovery.

Home buyers, however, should be aware of the link between a government default and mortgage rates. A default would lead to an increase in Treasury yields, which serve as a benchmark for determining rates on many mortgages. The Treasurys impacted first would be those with the shortest-term duration—which would make adjustable-rate mortgages more expensive for borrowers, says Brad Hunter, chief economist at Metrostudy, a housing market research and consulting firm. These loans are given to borrowers with an initial teaser-like rate, which is normally fixed for a number of years; once that rate becomes variable, it’s often pegged to the one-year Treasury yield. That yield has barely budged in the last couple of weeks, though experts say a default would send it climbing.

Posted in Employment, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 99 Comments

Shocker: Houses expensive in North Jersey

From the Star Ledger:

Where homes are within reach for the middle class in New Jersey

Only about 19 percent of the homes for sale in Bergen County are within reach of the average middle-class family, a recent survey shows, while in Salem County, the number skyrockets to 92 percent.

Real estate company Trulia compared the price of an average home for sale in each New Jersey county with the local median household income. It arrived at the affordability percentage based on whether the total monthly payment for the home was 31 percent or less than the household income.

According to Trulia, a family with a median household income of $56,000 in Bergen can afford a home priced at $274,000 – a scarcity in one of the country’s most expensive counties. By contrast, there are plenty of homes for $319,000 – the perfect price for a family earning $62,000 in Salem County.

The calculations assumed a 4.5 percent 30-year mortgage, and took into account property taxes and insurance.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 143 Comments

Want a house? Go west (but not too far west)

From HousingWire:

Middle-class affordability shrinks in key housing markets

For the typical middle-class household, owning a home is highly achievable, just as long as they choose to live in the Midwest.

In the middle of the country, the average household can afford to live in at least 80% of the homes on the market. But move to San Francisco, Orange County, Los Angeles, New York and San Diego and fewer than 30% of middle-class households can afford properties,Trulia noted.

“For the middle-class today, homeownership is well within reach in some parts of the country, but in others, it’s more of a pipe dream than the American Dream,” Jed Kolko, chief economist with Trulia, said. “Even after taking income differences into account, homeownership affordability varies hugely across the country.”

The survey determined affordability based on whether the total monthly payment for that home was less than 31% of the metro’s median household income.

Chicago reigned in as the least affordable housing market, with only 14% of the homes for sale deemed as affordable. Additionally, the average size of a house in October was 1,000 square feet.

Comparatively, Akron, Ohio, ranked as the most affordable housing market, with 86% of the listed homes classified as affordable.

“Even though the median household income is 60% higher in San Francisco than in Akron – which means San Franciscans can afford more expensive homes – the median price per square foot in San Francisco is close to seven times higher than in Akron,” Kolko said. “As a result, just 14% of the homes for sale in San Francisco are within reach of its relatively well-paid middle class.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 83 Comments

Foreclosures at 7 year low (except in NJ)

From CNBC:

Fewer US homes entered foreclosure track in third quarter

The number of U.S. homes set on the path to foreclosure slid to a seven-year low in the third quarter, reflecting a gradually improving housing market and fewer homeowners falling behind on mortgage payments.

Lenders initiated foreclosure action on 174,366 homes in the July-September period, the lowest level since the second quarter of 2006, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac said Thursday.

Foreclosure starts declined 13 percent from the previous quarter and were down 39 percent from the third quarter last year, the firm said.

“It’s looking really good that there are not more coming into the pipeline,” said Daren Blomquist, a vice president at RealtyTrac. “Barring any other economic shock to the system, we expect that to bode well going forward.”

Foreclosure starts fell on an annual basis in the third quarter in 38 states, including Colorado, Arizona, California, and Illinois. They increased from a year earlier in 11 states, including Maryland, Oregon, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

While fewer homes are entering the foreclosure process, lenders stepped up home repossessions, which led to a quarterly increase in homes lost to foreclosure.

Completed foreclosures rose 7 percent in the third quarter versus the April-June period, the firm said. Completed foreclosures were down 24 percent from the third quarter last year, however.

All told, 119,485 homes were taken back by lenders in the July-September quarter. That puts the nation on pace to end this year with roughly 507,497 completed foreclosures, or down about 24 percent from 2012’s total.

Foreclosures peaked in 2010 at 1.05 million and have been declining ever since.

The number of homes taken back by banks in the third quarter climbed from the previous quarter in 26 states, including New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Virginia, RealtyTrac said.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 130 Comments

“It’s not your father’s Brooklyn anymore”

From the NY Post:

Brooklyn home prices hit 10-year record high

Brooklyn is no longer the place to buy a home when you can’t afford Manhattan.

Homes in the Borough of Kings are selling at record-high prices, thanks to surging demand and low-but-rising mortgage rates, according to new real-estate figures.

Before the economic meltdown, the average price of a Brooklyn home hit $603,428 in 2007 — then sank to $494,720 in 2009 — but has rebounded to a stunning $694,777, according to the Elliman Report.

“It isn’t a discount neighborhood anymore,” said Pam Liebman, CEO of The Corcoran Group.

Pricey Manhattan homes are helping to drive buyers across the Brooklyn Bridge, but many are attracted to the hipster borough because it’s become an attractive place to live.

“Brooklyn is commanding record sales because it is truly a destination. People no longer view it as an alternative to living in Manhattan,” said Dottie Herman, president and CEO of Douglas Elliman Real Estate.
Liebman concurs.

“People are choosing to go to Brooklyn for the lifestyle. It’s not your father’s Brooklyn anymore,” she said.

Condos in Williamsburg/Greenpoint now average $914,000, up 21 percent over the year, according to Cor­coran.

Upper-end luxury homes jumped to a median sales price of $1.7 million borough-wide, an increase of 18 percent.

Meanwhile, even if you can afford a Brooklyn home, it’s harder to find one. Inventory is at its lowest third-quarter level in five years. And what’s available is relatively new.

Posted in Demographics, Housing Recovery, NYC | 43 Comments

This again? Conforming loan limits may drop.

From HousingWire:

GSE conforming loan limits could adjust again

Policymakers are contemplating a reduction in the maximum size of home loans that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are allowed to acquire, hoping this change will reduce the government’s dominant footprint in the mortgage market.

However, many industry experts are concerned such a move to adjust conforming loan limits will limit the pool of potential homebuyers, derailing the current housing recovery. Rumors really took off when the Wall Street Journal noted that plans are underway to adjust the limits.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said it’s prepared to work with Congress on mortgage finance reforms that maintain consumer access to affordable mortgage products for qualified borrowers. But it’s too soon to change the conforming loan limits, the association’s leader said.

“It would be counterproductive to make changes to the loan limits before capital is fully engaged,” explained NAR president Gary Thomas.

Currently, both enterprises have loan balances as high as $417,000 in the majority of the country and up to $625,000 in expensive housing markets such as San Francisco, Boston and Washington D.C.

Mortgage Bankers Association president and CEO David Stevens believes the loan limits will adjust downward to $400,000 and $600,000, respectively.

While it may seem marginal, Stevens says without a comfortable return of private capital, only the wealthiest borrowers with high downpayments and solid credit scores will be able to purchase a mortgage.

“While the change will be small, it will be assumed that borrowers in the middle class won’t have an option for a home loan unless FHA takes over the loans that are no longer eligible,” the MBA CEO and president argued.

Posted in Housing Recovery, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 80 Comments