Mortgage settlement near?

Posted on January 24, 2012 by grim

From Bloomberg:

Bank Foreclosure Deal Reviewed by States as Delaware Drops Out

State attorneys general reviewed a proposed settlement with banks over foreclosure and mortgage- servicing practices that negotiators are pressing to complete as Delaware said it would reject a deal said to total $25 billion.

Representatives of Democratic attorney general offices met at a Chicago hotel yesterday to discuss the negotiated terms and ask questions, said Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller. Miller, who is helping to lead talks, said an agreement with the banks is getting closer.

“There are still issues to be worked out,” Miller said in an interview. “This is one step along the way, and it was a very productive day.”

State and federal officials have been negotiating a settlement with the five largest mortgage servicers — Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. (C), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and Ally Financial Inc (ALLY). Talks were triggered by disclosures that the companies were using faulty documents in seizing homes.

The $25 billion deal would fund loan principal writedowns for homeowners and provide refinancings, a person familiar with the matter said before yesterday’s meeting. The proposal also sets requirements for how the banks conduct home foreclosures. The settlement would drop to $19 billion if California Attorney General Kamala Harris decides not to sign on, the person said.
…
Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden won’t sign on to the proposed agreement as drafted, Delaware Deputy Attorney General Ian McConnel said in a phone interview. He declined to comment on the reason for Biden’s decision.

Biden has been among a group of attorneys general, including New York’s Eric Schneiderman and Harris in California, who have said any settlement shouldn’t protect banks from claims that haven’t been fully investigated, such as claims stemming from the packaging of mortgages into securities sold to investors.

From the NYT:

Political Push Moves a Deal on Mortgages Inches Closer

About one million homeowners facing foreclosure could have their mortgage burden cut by about $20,000 each as part of a long-awaited deal taking shape among state attorneys general, federal officials and the nation’s largest mortgage servicers.

But a final agreement remained out of reach Monday despite political pressure from the White House, which had been trying to have a deal in hand that President Obama could highlight in his State of the Union address Tuesday night.
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The agreement could be worth about $25 billion, state and federal officials with knowledge of the negotiations said, with up to $17 billion of that used to reduce principal for homeowners facing foreclosure. Another portion would be set aside for homeowners who have been the victim of improper foreclosure practices, with about 750,000 families receiving about $1,800 each. But bank officials said Monday that the total amount of principal reduction and reimbursement would depend on how many states eventually sign on.

Posted in Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, Politics | 167 Comments

Why do we keep believing we can fix housing?

Posted on January 23, 2012 by grim

From the WSJ:

Economists See Ways to Aid Housing Market

he underpinnings of a housing recovery are hiding in plain sight: sharp price declines, low mortgage rates and rising rents have made owning more affordable than renting in a growing number of markets.

Yet housing largely remains in a funk. The prospect of continued price declines—led by the oversupply of foreclosed homes—has deterred some potential buyers, while others can’t qualify for loans.

Many economists, including some at the Federal Reserve, are urging President Barack Obama to do more, and the president will be “aggressive on housing” in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, his housing secretary said last week. The administration is already rebooting a refinancing initiative and putting finishing touches on programs to convert some foreclosed properties into rentals.

What more can be done? Economists cite three broad ideas that could advance a housing recovery.

First, local investors could play a greater role in spurring a recovery in their own communities. Some mom-and-pop investors have begun to buy up excess housing stock and rent it out.
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Second, policy makers could restore clarity to lending by finalizing a clutch of pending regulations. The government’s extraordinary steps to rescue Fannie and Freddie helped prevent a cataclysmic shock but it has made no real movement to overhaul the companies and the nation’s broader housing-finance machinery.
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Third, a growing number of economists are warning that the overhang of debt in some of the most distressed housing markets will linger for years, particularly if more borrowers default. They say mortgage investors and banks should consider reducing debt for more troubled homeowners.
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Mustering the political will to take any of these three steps wouldn’t be easy. Given the state of the market, “there isn’t a solution which will make everyone love you and cost no money,” Mr. Ranieri says.

Indeed, no single idea will fix all of housing’s problems. Many involve taking on more risk or rewarding bad behavior.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 155 Comments

Après-ski (or sled) open discussion

Posted on January 21, 2012 by grim

Some weekend gossip, from the Real Deal blog:

NBA veteran suffers big loss on NJ condo sale

Atlanta Hawks center Jason Collins sold his North Bergen condo — fully stocked with electronics and furniture — at a 58 percent loss this week, according to New Jersey Multiple Listing Service data.

Collins sold the 2,400-square-foot duplex penthouse he owns in the Mirabelle on the Hudson, at 8125 River Road, for $700,000 — exactly $1 million less than he paid for it in 2005, when it was a new development. He bought it when played for the New Jersey Nets, but has since signed with the Atlanta Hawks and settled on a home in that area.

“The real estate bubble hit everyone, [Collins] included,” said Joshua Baris, the Coldwell Banker agent who listed the property. “People made decisions based on the market at the time, and he obviously took a big loss, but he handled it gracefully.”

The Mirabelle is home to several other celebrities, and the rapper and reality TV star Ice-T lives two units down, according to a source with knowledge of the building.

Collins commissioned Baris through a mutual acquaintance, and Baris said it was “awkward” to tell the 7-footer what he realistically thought the apartment would sell for. Baris listed it in June for $788,000.

“It was priced like a short sale. But for him to hold on to a property that wasn’t going to increase anytime soon was a liability,” Baris said. “So he cut his losses.”
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“My clients took advantage of the current market and received a great deal,” said Gershon Adjaye, the Keller Williams NYC agent who represented the buyer. “All the furnishings and electronics were included. A ‘pack-a-suitcase-and-move-in’ style purchase.” Adjaye, who has licenses in New York and New Jersey, would not disclose the buyer’s identity.

Posted in Comp Killer | 107 Comments

NJ unemployment ticks down to 9 in December

Posted on January 19, 2012 by grim

From New Jersey Newsroom:

N.J. jobless rate drops to 9%, lowest since May 2009

New Jersey’s unemployment rate in December dropped 0.1 percent to 9 percent, the lowest jobless rate in the state since May 2009, 31 months ago.

And while the state’s unemployment rate has declined in four of the last five months, that is not welcome news to the 7,200 New Jerseyans who lost their jobs in the private sector. Another 7,300 people found work, including 2,400 who obtained public employment, mainly in municipal and county governments.

Job losses occurred in construction 2,800, manufacturing 200, trade, transportation and utilities 4,100, and leisure and hospitality 100. Job gains were made in financial activities 1,800, professional and business services 1,500, other services 1,300, and education and health services 300.

The number of New Jerseyans who had jobs at the end of last month was 3,881,100. Another 410,700 are unemployed.

“The numbers show that 2011 was the best year for private sector job growth since the year 2000,” state Chief Economist Charles Steindel said. “We still have a long way to go to get back close to full employment, but it’s evident we are going in the right direction.”

From the Record:

NJ adds 400 jobs in December

New Jersey added just 400 jobs in December and unemployment fell slightly in a weak finish to a year in which the state added a relatively healthy 39,400 private sector jobs.

The state lost 2,000 private sector jobs and added 2,400 government jobs, according to the monthly jobs report by the Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

Unemployment, fell from 9.1 percent to 9 percent, leaving it still above the national rate of 8.5 percent.

For the year, the state added a total of 36,400 jobs, losing 3,000 government positions.
…
The report also revised downwards the previously released figures for November, reporting 10,000 jobs added, instead of 10,300.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 120 Comments

I’d like a tax cut, but can we afford it?

Posted on January 19, 2012 by grim

From the APP:

Gov. Christie takes rosy look at state revenues

By calling for a 10 percent income tax cut, Gov. Chris Christie must believe boom times are coming to state finances.

Because with the scheduled increases for pension payments and transportation funding, it will take tax revenue jumps of 4 percent or 5 percent a year — or smaller increases combined with further state budget cuts — to pay for the proposed tax cut that would eventually reach some $1.2 billion or more.

It was hard for most analysts and experts to see that scenario on Wednesday as the state reported that tax collections for the current budget were $325.7 million, or 3.2 percent, under the administration’s own expectations.

Meanwhile, New Jersey is required by law, under reforms Christie enacted, to pay $484 million toward its pension system by June 30, and then dramatically increase that contribution to $1 billion in the next fiscal year and $5 billion by fiscal year 2016.

“The governor set out a laudable goal of reducing the tax burden, but I would caution that we do it in a prudent way,” said Raphael J. Caprio, a professor of public administration at Rutgers University who was part of a group that issued a dire report on state finances last year.

“As we phase in tax cuts, we will be phasing in pension liabilities and other obligations. We need to careful of undermining one at the expense of the other,” Caprio said.

In addition to pension costs, the state plans to spend $8 billion, through 2016, for the Transportation Trust Fund, which pays for large-scale bridge and road repairs, new trains and rail, and other major projects.
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Private estimates Wednesday pegged the Christie tax cut as a $150 million cost to the upcoming budget, then grow to $350 million in fiscal 2014 and $950 million in fiscal 2015 before being fully implemented at $1.2 billion a year later.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 149 Comments

Bottoms Up?

Posted on January 18, 2012 by grim

From the WSJ:

From Bottom Up, Signs of Housing Recovery

After years of watching home prices slide, Claudia Ruggiero, a teacher in White Plains, was ready to strike.

She and her husband Michael Johnson, also a teacher, had a 14-month-old son at home and needed a shorter commute. They found a three-bedroom Dutch colonial in Armonk, a neighborhood they thought they could never afford, for a bit more than $500,000.

In a strong sign of recovery in the housing market, cost-conscious buyers such as Ms. Ruggiero have stormed back into the market for lower-priced properties across the New York area in recent months, leading analysts to speculate that the worst of the housing slump may be over.

Across Westchester, the number of buyers in contract to buy homes priced less than $500,000 at the end of 2011 rose by nearly 40% compared to a year earlier, according to a market report issued by the broker Houlihan Lawrence. Sales weakened at higher price points.

Analysts have noted a similar pattern in New Jersey. Sales have picked up due to buyers of properties priced less than $400,000, according to data compiled by the Otteau Valuation Group. The number of such contracts signed during the fourth quarter rose by 11.3% compared to the same period a year earlier.

Analysts said housing-market recoveries often begin at the bottom.

“It is nice when you get the high end of the market doing well,” said Chris Meyers, chief operating officer of Houlihan Lawrence, the largest residential brokerage in Westchester, “but in our experience the strong markets get healthy from the bottom up.”

Jeffrey G. Otteau, an appraiser and housing analyst in New Jersey, said that state’s market had “bottomed out.” He said the surge in lower-end sales strengthened month by month since September. It was, he said, like a “snowball, rolling down hill and gaining momentum” that was likely to continue in 2012.

He attributed the change to an improved economy, with the creation of entry-level jobs triggering home buying by first time homebuyers backed by support from federal housing programs. A bump down in mortgage rates was also a factor, brokers said.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 192 Comments

Location, location, location, or something else?

Posted on January 16, 2012 by grim

From the Record:

Location still holds key to value

The decline in housing values has not fallen equally on all towns.

A Record analysis of home prices in the first half of 2011 (the latest available in public records) found that, overall, prices were down about 3 percent in Bergen and Passaic counties from the period a year earlier. (Prices are down 17 percent in Bergen and 21.6 percent in Passaic since 2007, when housing prices peaked.)

But in early 2011 at least, wealthier towns generally fared better than lower-income areas affected by the foreclosure crisis.

In addition, less-affluent towns were more affected by tighter mortgage standards and unemployment above 9 percent.

Geography played a role, too.

Towns in eastern Bergen County, close to the George Washington Bridge, also seemed to hold their value better from 2010 to 2011.

From the Press of Atlantic City:

South Jersey towns see more than 16 percent increase in vacant homes

U.S. Census reports show that while the number of total housing units increased nationally by almost 14 percent from 2000 to 2010, the number of vacant housing units ballooned by almost 44 percent.

Michael Busler, a fellow at the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Richard Stockton College, says the gloomy trend may not have reached its end point. “It’s going to get a little bit worse before it gets better,” he said.

New Jersey’s numbers are just as striking — an increase in housing of more than 7 percent while the number of vacant units increased by more than 38 percent. One Essex County town, Belleville, for example, saw the number of vacant housing units jump 134 percent as the number of overall units went up just 1 percent.

Locally, 14 of 23 Atlantic County municipalities have seen the number of vacant housing units increase by 16 percent or more from 2000 to 2010. In addition, 11 of 16 towns in Cape May County and 10 of 14 towns in Cumberland County have seen a similar jump.

“People are becoming frustrated by the system, and a lot of them are walking away from properties,” said James Schroeder, an attorney and real estate agent with Keller Williams in Northfield. He cited statistics from the New Jersey Law Review stating that there were 1.5 million homes nationwide in foreclosure and ready for sale, another 3.5 million to 4 million within three to six months of being sold.

In the end, he said, his company believes that it will be another five to seven years before the traditional housing market picks up again.
…
Cape May County saw an overall increase in vacant units for sale, not seasonal, of 75 percent compared with just an 8 percent increase in total units.

Upper Township saw an increase of 232 percent (83 vacant units for sale in 2010 compared with 25 in 2000), while Cape May saw a 245 percent increase (38 compared to 11), Wildwood Crest a 442 percent increase (130 compared to 24) and Cape May Point a whopping 650 percent increase (15 compared to 2).

Nine Atlantic County towns have seen increases in vacant units for sale of 75 percent or more, including increases of 100 percent in Longport and Estell Manor, 111 percent in Buena Vista Township, 126 percent in Linwood and 204 percent in Somers Point — which saw the number of homes vacant and for sale almost triple, going from 24 in 2000 to 73 in 2010.

Nine other towns in the county have a double-digit increase in the percentage of vacant units for sale, leading to a 32 percent increase overall — in a county that saw just an 11 percent increase in total units.

In Ocean County, the number of homes vacant and for sale in Barnegat Township more than doubled (76 to 172). In Stafford Township, that figure jumped from 151 to 272.

Posted in Economics, North Jersey Real Estate, South Jersey Real Estate | 229 Comments

The other New Jersey housing market

Posted on January 13, 2012 by grim

From the NY Times:

Rural Areas Slower to Rebound

FOR whatever reason, homes sales picked up in New Jersey in the latter part of 2011. A new statewide market report shows contract signings increased in six of the seven months from May through November, compared with 2010.

Also, the inventory of homes for sale shrank every month since May, according to Jeffrey G. Otteau, an analyst, whose Otteau Valuation Group in East Brunswick does monthly reports for the real estate industry; he called the latest news a concrete sign that the market was “stabilizing.”

His December report was the first one in several years to sound a hopeful note. Until the state’s huge foreclosure backlog comes back on the market — and how fast that happens is important — the market may improve sometime this year to the point that prices stop declining and perhaps even modestly start to rise.

But that is the statewide picture. A great division in market fortunes between northern and southern Jersey — and urbanized areas close to Manhattan and more rural regions — became clear during the recent recession and remains stark in the fresh statistics. Mr. Otteau predicted that the gap would shape the timing and pattern of potential recovery, and several agents in the field agreed with him.

“Simply put,” said Dawn Rapa, a Coldwell Banker Elite agent working in rural Salem County, “the only people I’ve seen selling their houses recently are those who absolutely had to — because they were in financial disarray, a job change, divorce or death.”

Salem County, rich in historic houses and farmland but short on well-paying jobs or a quick commute to an urban center, has the largest inventory of all 21 counties surveyed: 44.5 months’ worth of houses, the preponderance of them priced under $400,000.
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Several other counties in southern New Jersey have inventories about twice the size of the state average — 29 months’ worth in Cumberland County, 26 in Cape May County, and 24 in Atlantic County.

In Cape May and Atlantic, the primary backlog is for more expensive homes, many of them built in the boom years to appeal to shoreline vacationers. Atlantic has just shy of six years’ worth of inventory in the $600,000-to-$1 million range.

For homes priced from $1 million to $2.5 million, the Otteau report predicted, it will take more than four years to sell the inventory in Atlantic County and close to seven years in Ocean County.
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The market misery is not all concentrated in the south, however. In the northernmost county, Sussex, the inventory is 20 months. In the $400,000-to-$599,999 bracket, five and a half years’ supply is already on the market.

In the town of Vernon, which is home to several popular ski areas, and where construction was booming in the mid-2000s, the average sale price of a home was $250,000 in 2007, according to the real estate Web site Trulia. Now the site has it at $100,000.
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Nearby in the somewhat more affluent town of Sparta, a number of large houses built about a decade ago on one-acre or larger lots are now being offered at reduced prices or as short sales.

“Houses are selling,” said Catherine Kut, an agent at Weichert Realtors in Sparta, “but they have to be in fabulous condition and still occupied, as a rule.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 220 Comments

January Beige Book

Posted on January 11, 2012 by grim

From the Federal Reserve:

Beige Book – Second District–New York

The Second District’s economy has grown at a somewhat faster pace since the last report, led by brisk holiday-season spending. Labor market conditions, as well as prices, have remained generally stable. Manufacturers report modestly improved general business conditions and steady employment since the last report, along with increased optimism about the near-term outlook. Retailers generally characterize holiday season spending as robust, particularly in the final days before Christmas and right after. Auto dealers report that sales have remained strong since the last report. Tourism activity has held steady at a high level. Conditions have generally remained stable in the housing market, though the rental market has continued to improve. Commercial real estate markets have been stable to moderately stronger in late 2011. Finally, bankers report increased loan demand, steady to somewhat tighter credit standards, and lower delinquency rates across the board.
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Construction and Real Estate

Residential rental markets continue to strengthen, while real estate sales have shown little change since the last report and new development activity continues to be sluggish. New York City’s rental market remains tight: rents continue to rise, as the inventory of available units remains lean. Manhattan co-op and condo prices were little changed in the fourth quarter, while sales activity slowed from its fairly brisk third quarter pace. Market conditions were reported to be similar in Brooklyn but a bit softer in the other boroughs and on Long Island. On a more positive note, one industry expert in New Jersey sees improved fundamentals in the housing market and foresees a pickup in market conditions in 2012. Real estate contacts in other parts of the District also note some increase in optimism among developers.

Commercial real estate markets have been steady to somewhat stronger since the last report. New York City’s office market has picked up in late 2011, with office vacancy rates edging down and asking rents rising. There were also modest signs of improvement in Westchester and Fairfield counties and in the Albany area, whereas office markets in northern New Jersey and western New York State appear to have slackened modestly. Industrial leasing markets were generally steady overall: conditions firmed in Long Island but showed some signs of softening across upstate New York; in the rest of the District, conditions were little changed.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 163 Comments

Additional info from the Corelogic November HPI

Posted on January 10, 2012 by grim

From CoreLogic (no link):

CoreLogic® Home Price Index Shows Fourth Consecutive Month-Over-Month Decline – Home Prices Down 4.3 Percent Year-Over-Year

Posted in Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 151 Comments

CoreLogic: November home prices down 4.3% (0.6% excluding distressed homes)

Posted on January 10, 2012 by grim

From HousingWire:

Home prices decline 4.3% in November: CoreLogic

Home prices nationwide fell 4.3% year-over-year in the month of November, according to analytics firm CoreLogic in its November Home Price Index.

Santa Ana, Calif.-based CoreLogic said home prices declined 1.4% from October to November, making it the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

When excluding distressed home sales, prices year-over-year fell only 0.6%, compared to 1.6% in October. Distressed sales include all short sales and REO deals.

“With one month of data left to report, it appears that the healthy, non-distressed market will be very modestly down in 2011,” said Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist. “Distressed sales continue to put downward pressure on prices, and is a factor that must be addressed in 2012 for a housing recovery to become a reality.”

Capital Economics expects prices to stop falling this year, although the recent acceleration in the rate of declines “will provide more support to those Fed officials who recently have championed more action to revive the housing market.”

“The current balance between demand and supply, as measured by how long it would take to clear all the homes on the market at recent rates of sale, is consistent with prices stabilizing in six months’ time,” according to the Toronto-based firm.

Posted in Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 166 Comments

2010 – Lowest property tax increases since 1992

Posted on January 9, 2012 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Special Report: Did N.J. property tax reform help most taxpayers?

New Jersey homeowners paid an average of 2.4 percent more for property taxes in 2011, the smallest increase in nearly two decades, showing Gov. Chris Christie’s push to restrain local levies might be working.

A Star-Ledger analysis of taxes in all 566 New Jersey towns shows the average property tax bill was $7,758 last year, an increase of about $182 from 2010.

Although more than 82 percent of the towns saw some increase in their average property tax bills last year, the 2.4 percent increase was a significantly slower rate of growth, the newspaper found. In 2010, property taxes rose 4.1 percent and year-over-year increases topped 7 percent for three consecutive years in the middle of the past decade.

The last time property taxes rose by such a small rate was 1992, when they went up 1.9 percent, according to state figures.

Christie has made reining in New Jersey’s highest-in-the-nation property taxes a big goal of his administration. Along with the Democrat-controlled Legislature, he limited property tax collections for towns, schools and counties at 2 percent, starting last January.

“Am I satisfied? Of course not. Unless you told me it was 2 percent, I wouldn’t be satisfied,” Christie said in an interview. “But we’re making great progress. When you think that in the 10 years before I became governor, property taxes went up 70 percent in 10 years and now people are talking about 2-and-change increase, that’s great progress and progress that nobody else before we got here created in this state.”
…
The analysis found:

• In total, towns, counties and schools collected about $25.6 billion from taxpayers in 2011, a 2.5 percent increase from 2010.

• Loch Arbour Village in Monmouth County had the highest average property tax bill at $22,715. Tiny Tavistock Borough, Camden County, came in second with $22,297, followed by Millburn, where the average property taxpayer coughed up $19,989.

• The least expensive place to live in New Jersey was Walpack in Sussex County, where the average taxpayer paid about $514.

• Bergen, Morris and Union counties had the highest average property taxes in 2011. The average Bergen County taxpayer paid $10,317, a 2.6 percent jump from 2010. Morris County’s average bill was $9,644, while Union County overtook Essex for third place, at $9,493.

• The lowest county average was in Cumberland, where the average tax bill was about $3,419 in 2011, down 1 percent.

• Together, the three taxing authorities (towns, schools and counties) exceeded a 2 percent increase in collections in 312 towns, while 165 stayed within 2 percent and 89 saw the levy stay the same or decrease. In 2010, 529 towns saw an increase in their total tax levy, 425 of which went over 2 percent.

• Counties were more successful than towns and schools in keeping their tax levy below the cap.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 135 Comments

NJ downpayment size, 13.71%, highest in the nation

Posted on January 7, 2012 by grim

From the NY Times:

State Leads Nation in Down-Payment Size

BUYERS in New Jersey have the highest down-payment rate in the country, putting down an average 13.71 percent of the purchase price, according to a new report from LendingTree. That surpasses percentages in cities like Washington, and states like New York, Hawaii and California, though only by tenths of a point. In New York, the average down payment works out to 13.47 percent. The national average is 12.24 percent, for the year ending in November.

Of course, very few borrowers pay the average percentage, which is computed by figuring out the average down payment on conventional loans made by banks and government-insured Federal Housing Administration or Department of Veterans Affairs loans, which have down payment minimums of 3.5 percent.

Countrywide, about a quarter of all mortgage loans are government-backed, according to lending specialists.

State market experts offered various nuanced reasons for New Jersey’s unenviable top position on the list compiled by LendingTree, which tries to match borrowers and favorable mortgage deals. Most boiled down to this: There is more higher-priced housing in New Jersey than in most other states. The bigger a mortgage loan is, the greater the percentage that lenders now require in down payment.
…
Mortgage lenders have “definitely tightened loan requirements across the board in the last three years,” said Michael DiSalvio, the president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of New Jersey and an account manager for Genworth Financial. “We’ve learned our lesson.”

But he also said all of the roughly 75 banks belonging to the association offered some loans to qualified buyers of midpriced homes with just 5 percent down.

“We are stricter with credit scores for buyers,” he said. “Our limit is 660 to 670 from FICO, while the F.H.A. will take lower, maybe down to 640. We also have tightened the debt-to-income ratio; we keep it at 45 percent of buyers’ projected income, and F.H.A. will keep it at 55 percent. But 5 percent money is out there, it is widely available” among banks.
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Sounding the same note as LendingTree’s founder and chief executive, Douglas Lebda, who announced results of the down-payment study last month, Mr. DiSalvio opposed federal regulators’ idea for a 20 percent down payment on conventional loans carrying the lowest interest rates. He said such a move would “suffocate” the housing industry.
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“It would destroy us,” said Edward Walters Jr., the founding partner of the Walters Group, a development company that is building on 370 acres of the Pinelands region in southern New Jersey. (The Ocean Acres development where the Gallaghers bought their house is a part of it.)

Mr. Walters put it this way: “You don’t have to have a degree from Harvard to recognize that average people, making average salaries, paying normal utility and tax bills, figuring in the cost of food and gas, and considering loan interest rates of 5 or 6 percent, these people will not be able to afford a $350,000-to-$450,000 house — which is what about 80 percent of what our product is — if they have to come up with 20 percent down.”

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 46 Comments

Just a little more 2012 prognostication

Posted on January 6, 2012 by grim

From the Ledger:

Real Estate May Begin to Come to Life in 2012

The housing market — staggering under a slow economy and still paying for the excesses of the boom years — may start to stir to life in 2012.

But experts warn that a real rebound is still several years away.

“Our outlook is that things (in 2012) will be a little bit better than 2011,” said Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight. “But that’s not saying much.”

Blame the economy, with unemployment topping 8 percent. If economic and job growth pick up in 2012, housing is likely to get a boost. But that’s a big “if.” IHS expects the U.S. economy to grow at an anemic 1.6 percent — or possibly even tip into recession as a result of Europe’s debt problems.

“Our view is that the economy isn’t going to grow fast enough to bring down the unemployment rate,” said Newport. “That’s one of the reasons that it will take the housing market another 1 ½ to two years to get back on track and start growing again.”

“People are not going to come out and make the most expensive purchase of their lives if there’s any uncertainty about their jobs,” said Robert Denk, an economist with the National Association of Home Builders, who predicts that home construction won’t return to normal levels until 2015.

And the housing market is still suffering a hangover from the wild times of 2004 and 2005, when questionable mortgage practices inflated prices to unsustainable levels, and allowed unqualified buyers to get into homes they couldn’t afford.
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Newport expects prices nationwide to slide another 5 or 10 percent in 2012, as the foreclosure pipeline gets moving again, dumping distressed properties on the market. Foreclosed properties tend to sell at a discount of 20 to 30 percent, according to several studies.

Lower prices have left many homeowners (especially those who paid high prices at the market peak) owing more on their homes than the properties are worth.

Of course, the lower prices have also made it easier for buyers to afford homes. And once the foreclosure bottleneck is cleared, many low-priced properties will come onto the market, said Patrick O’Keefe, an economist with J.H. Cohn in Roseland, N.J.

“There will be a lot of opportunities for purchasers to get steeply discounted properties,” he said. He predicted prices will stabilize by the end of 2012.
…
During the 2007-09 recession, about 2 million fewer new households than expected were created, according to Denk, the economist with the National Association of Home Builders. And household formation has continued to be depressed since the recession ended, Denk said.

After losing their jobs (or their homes to foreclosure), millions of people doubled up with friends or relatives. At the same time, young adults stayed in their parents’ homes longer while they searched for good jobs.

But sooner or later, most of these people will create their own households, ratcheting up demand for apartments and homes.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 150 Comments

Housing Bailout #307b – “Sacrifice for the greater good”

Posted on January 5, 2012 by grim

From HousingWire:

Bernanke calls for nationwide REO rental program

The government should consider helping the nation’s vacant, unsold stock of foreclosed properties by supporting initiatives to occupy.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke believes that one aspect should be a government support program that allows renters to move into those houses.

In a letter Wednesday to ranking members on the House Committee of Financial Services, Reps. Spencer Bachus, R-Ala., and Barney Frank, D-Mass., Bernanke said that inefficiencies in the foreclosure and mortgage origination processes are dragging on the economic recovery.

However, solutions are available, he added.

“Preliminary estimates suggest that about two-fifths of Fannie Mae’s REO inventory would have a cap rate above 8% — sufficiently high to indicate renting the property might deliver a better loss recovery than selling the property,” Bernanke’s staff writes in a supporting white paper.

“Estimated cap rates on the Federal Housing Administration’s REO inventory are a bit higher — about half of the current inventory has a cap rate above 8% — because FHA properties tend to have somewhat lower values relative to area rents,” they said.
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In a scenario of declining house prices such as this, homeownership should be promoted, according to the white paper. Indeed, they argue that in many cases REO-to-rentals may be inappropriate. Yet unless mortgage origination requirements, with tighter underwriting standards, are loosened in the immediate future, borrowers may have little choice but to rent.

Furthermore, support for such a program will cost mortgage servicers, bond investors and even taxpayers. But it may be a sacrifice for the greater good.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 222 Comments