Is the market moving? Is it not?

From CNBC:

Parsing Home Prices Proves Precarious

Another day, another double-dose of home price reports, a home sentiment survey and a weekly report on mortgage applications.

All seem to point in different directions.

Both Lender Processing Services and CoreLogic released home price data, the former for December and the Latter for January; however, LPS claims that much of CoreLogic’s data comes from transactions in December, so you be the judge.

They both show prices down around 3 percent annually, but CoreLogic gives you distressed (foreclosures/short sales) versus non-distressed, showing that non-distressed prices are down just under one percent.

Why should we care about the difference?

Because well over a third of the housing market today is investors and first timers buying distressed properties, and that share will likely rise as foreclosures ramp up after the big “robo-settlement” between banks and state and federal governments.

You can see it in the weekly mortgage applications numbers. Home sales are rising, but mortgage applications to purchase a home are not. They are down nearly 8 percent from a year ago, despite a seemingly more busy spring market. Regular buyers are using all-cash because lending standards are still too tight, and investors are using cash because it gives them a competitive edge for distressed properties, especially in hotter markets where there is limited supply.

So what are we to take from this onslaught of data and perception? Housing is moving again. Buyers are coming out of the woodwork, but make no mistake, there will be no great surge in prices and no return to “normalcy” any time soon. There is still far to much distress left over, especially in states where foreclosures require a judge, and it will take years to move through that distress. Prices nationally will falter more and then stay flat, but in certain markets where investors are driving sales and where prices dropped the most, we will see faster appreciation. In states like New Jersey and New York, where foreclosures will clog the system for years, prices drops will be steeper and longer.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 132 Comments

Forclosure activity ticks higher as lenders resume resposessions

From Reuters:

Foreclosure starts jump 28 percent in January : LPS

Starts on U.S. home foreclosures shot up 28 percent in January, data provider Lender Processing Services (LPS.N) said on Tuesday in a report that suggested paper backlogs that had clogged the system were rapidly clearing.

U.S. lenders had cut back on foreclosure after accusations of faulty foreclosure practices had surfaced in late 2010.

Last month, five big U.S. banks reached a $25 billion settlement with the federal government to end a national investigation into claims of flaws in their foreclosure process, including allegations of so-called “robo-signing” of documents.

“One-month anomalies do occur, but make no mistake about it, this is a larger move than we’ve seen since the late 2010 period when the process reviews and moratoria really took hold,” said Herb Blecher, senior vice president at LPS Applied Analytics, a unit of the Jacksonville, Florida-based company.

LPS also said foreclosure sales, which it defined as a bank repossession of a home from the borrower or in some cases the completion of a short sale, surged 29 percent in January from the previous month.

Mortgage delinquencies were down more than 25 percent from their January 2010 peak, according to the report. The delinquency rate stood at 7.97 percent in January, down 10.5 percent from a year earlier.

Posted in Foreclosures, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 134 Comments

Do you have an FHA originated before June, 2009?

You are in luck. From the WSJ:

White House Cuts Refinance Fees

The U.S. government will cut fees on federally insured mortgages that have prevented some borrowers from refinancing their home loans at ultra-low interest rates, the latest in a series of White House efforts to boost the flagging housing market.

The change was announced Tuesday by President Obama. Mr. Obama’s administration has focused on revamping its efforts to aid the weak housing market of late after falling well short of its initial goals set out in early 2009.

The White House estimated that between 2 million and 3 million homeowners would be eligible and said the reduced fees would save homeowners around $1,000 per year. The administration has been pushing to allow more homeowners to take advantage of interest rates that have been averaging under 4% for 30-year mortgages, the lowest levels on record.

“This is not something the government, by itself, can solve,” Mr. Obama said at a news conference. “But I’m not one of those people who believe that we should just sit by and wait for the housing market to hit bottom.”

The changes will apply to borrowers with loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, a federal agency that guarantees mortgages made to borrowers who have weaker credit scores and need low down payments.

Those borrowers are currently allowed to refinance into new FHA loans without providing verification of their credit score, income or a new appraisal. However, high fees have prevented many from doing so.

Since the FHA guarantees these loans and is on the hook for any losses, allowing these borrowers to take advantage of low rates could result in fewer defaults for the agency.

The insurance premiums that FHA borrowers must pay up-front for refinanced loans will be nearly eliminated, falling to just 0.01% of the loan balance–or a fee of just $17.50 for a $175,000 mortgage. In addition, the FHA will also cut in half the annual premium it charges to 0.55% from 1.15% of the loan balance. That means this fee will drop to about $960 from about $2,000 on a $175,000 loan.

However, the changes apply only to borrowers who took out loans before June 1, 2009. As a result, the majority of FHA borrowers won’t be able to take advantage of the reduced fees.

Posted in Mortgages, Politics, Risky Lending | 24 Comments

Does more REO mean lower prices?

From HousingWire:

Home price declines resilient against REO saturation: Clear Capital

National home prices fell by the smallest margin in 10 months in light of REO saturation increases, a trend that Clear Capital calls “unusual and encouraging.”

Prices declined 1.9% year-over-year, according to the firm’s Home Data Index market report. Short-term prices remained stable, falling only 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, highlighting short-term stability over the last few months.

All regions showed improvements in yearly and quarterly price drops, while three out of four saw upticks in real estate-owned properties for sale.

Clear Capital found that the nation’s top 15 peforming metropolitan statistical areas were resilient against higher REO saturation, with six of them showing quartely price appreciation greater than 2%. Quarterly losses among the lowest MSAs eased in February, averaging 4.1% against an average loss of 4.7% in January.

“With this uptick in REO activity, we’ll be keeping a very close eye on the effects of the attorneys general settlement with servicers, as it could dramatically change the flow of REO properties moving through the foreclosure process and significantly impact values in the near future,” Alex Villacorta, Clear Capital’s director of research and analytics, said.

Villacorta cited improvements in the job market, stronger consumer confidence and the heightened activity of investors with cash as putting upward pressure on prices and adding to the resiliency in prices against the nation’s REO bulk.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery | 91 Comments

Real estate sentiment starting to change?

From CNBC:

As Home Prices Fall Further, Is It Time to Buy?

Nobody wants to catch a falling knife. It is as simple as that. If potential buyers see continued home price erosion, they will stay parked on the sidelines. But as with everything else in this unique and historic housing market, perhaps the usual logic doesn’t apply.

“Housing is one of the great investments right now. I tell people all the time when they come up to me, they say, “What should I do, Mr. Trump?” I say go buy a house,” said Donald Trump earlier today on CNBC.

“It wouldn’t be an obvious mistake to buy a house now,” hedged Robert Shiller, barely a few hours later.

Perhaps they were just jumping off Warren Buffett’s declaration yesterday that if he had a way to manage them, he would buy a couple of hundred thousand single family homes and rent them out.

Housing appears to be rated a “buy” these days, especially among investors, who see a ripe and rising rental market and big potential for income. But is it the right time yet for what I call “organic” buyers to get in? By this I mean people buying a home to actually live in it, raise a family in it, let the dog run around in the back yard. If prices are still falling, couldn’t an even better deal be waiting down the road a bit?

No. House prices will continue to fall on a national basis at least through 2012, but you have to look past national headlines to your local market, which is likely already recovering nicely. The trouble with the national numbers is that they are heavily weighted toward the lower end of the market and to the distressed end of the market.

You cannot time housing any more than you can time the stock market. True, housing moves far more slowly, but that works to its benefit, as prices don’t rise and fall on daily news or even on major events. Sales have clearly bottomed in housing, and prices always lag sales. They will lag longer this time around, no question, but they will come back. Supply and demand will eventually win out, even after an historic crash. If you can’t get a good mortgage now, then perhaps it’s not your time, but if you can, waiting may not buy you much.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 176 Comments

Fix’er-Uppers Dream

From the NY Times:

‘Rehab’ Loans to the Rescue

AFTER months of searching for a mother-daughter home that they could afford in the Bergen County town where they were renting, Adrian and Rosanna Mercado came upon a Victorian with enough room for them to live upstairs and Mrs. Mercado’s parents to live on the first floor. The only problem was that the century-old house was in serious need of repairs.

A two-family in Closter, the house had sat empty for two years. It was “selling for less than it would go for if it was fixed up,” Mr. Mercado recalled, “so we thought, ‘We’ve got to jump on that.’ ”

“We figured we’d get a mortgage to buy the house, and then another loan to do the renovations.”

But they found banks reluctant to make loans on uninhabited homes — and even less eager to offer home equity loans. In fact, mortgage brokers say home equity products have all but dried up in today’s tight-fisted lending climate.

In the end it was another loan that came to the Mercados’ rescue: the Federal Housing Administration’s 203(k), also known as the F.H.A. rehab loan, which is designed to cover not only buying the home but also renovating it, and is then paid back like a regular mortgage. A hybrid that has been around for more than 30 years, the loan program has recently surged in popularity.

“We’re seeing an explosive grown in these loans,” said Ed Brehm, the branch manager of the Point Pleasant office of Prospect Mortgage, one of the country’s largest processors of 203(k) loans. The demand is being fueled by the numbers of bank-owned properties, he said, “but also from clients who can no longer get home equity loans.”

The National Association of Realtors’ January housing survey, released last month, found that 35 percent of houses on the market were either short sales or foreclosures, up from 32 percent in December and 29 percent in November. Of these, 37 percent were categorized as being “below” or “well below” average condition, sometimes resulting from the ravages of abandonment, others from damage inflicted on homes by disgruntled owners forced into foreclosure. Either way, a buyer of such a home will have trouble securing financing on something deemed less than habitable.

Enter the 203(k), an especially attractive loan for those drawn to the bargain prices but who don’t have the cash to bring the house up to habitable standards. The renovation part of the loan can be used for everything from new floors or appliances to major structural rehabilitation. Also, the loan is available for a variety of house sizes, from one-families to four-family owner-occupied units. Fannie Mae offers a similar combination lending program called HomePath.

The 203(k) is available in two structures: the Streamline K and the Consultant K. The former is for smaller, nonstructural projects that cost less than $35,000 (minus a 10 percent contingency fee that is held in reserve in the event that the project needs additional work). With these projects, the contractor doing the repairs gets paid 50 percent upfront and the remainder once the completed project has been inspected by an F.H.A. appraiser.

Because such rehab loans are more complicated and time consuming, not all lenders offer them. But those who do have found a lucrative niche. The Real Estate Mortgage Network, a mortgage company based in Edison, created a whole department around the loans, and even hired someone to serve as the company’s 203(k) concierge, according to Richard Pollock, the network’s area manager for South Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania and Maryland.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 55 Comments

Big jump in contracts in January

From the Otteau Group (no link):

NJ Home Sales Record 31% Increase in January

Given the malaise in the housing market in recent years, a double digit increase in purchase demand is a big deal. What’s even more impressive is that this increase occurred in the month of January, and without homebuyer tax credits stimulating demand. Housing demand in New Jersey exploded off the chart in January with 4,700 home-purchase contracts which equates to a 31% increase compared to one year earlier. That performance exceeded the 4,600 recorded in January 2010 when home sales surged due to the availability of home buyer tax credits, and was the best since 2008. Certainly the mild January weather had a hand in this compared to last year’s heavy snow accumulations. But an increase of this magnitude extends beyond a weather related influence.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 254 Comments

“We might be on the verge of a home recovery, but then, maybe not.”

From the WSJ:

Home Prices Hit New Depths

Home prices fell to fresh lows in December, but economists say that a drop in the number of homes listed for sale could help stabilize prices in parts of the country this year.

Home prices fell by 4% last year, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index that tracks 20 metro areas. Prices dropped by 1.1% for the three-month period ending in December compared with the same period ending in November.That was slightly better than November’s reading, when prices were down 1.3% from October.

Tuesday’s report is the latest evidence that the housing market still faces a cloudy outlook after a six-year downturn. The inventory of homes for sale has contracted, reducing competition among sellers, according to The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of housing-market conditions in 28 metro areas.

But a large potential backlog of foreclosed properties hangs over many housing markets. Other headwinds including tight mortgage-lending standards that show few signs of easing.

“These are times of continued, great uncertainty about home prices,” said Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist who co-founded the index that bears his name. “We might be on the verge of a home recovery, but then, maybe not.”

Others are becoming somewhat optimistic. Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist in Leesburg, Va., said the S&P/Case-Shiller index should hit a bottom this spring. He said many analysts have overlooked positive developments, including a dearth of new construction and the falling share of homes selling out of foreclosure.

At the current sales rate, it would take about four months to sell the supply of homes on the market in Denver, Washington, D.C., and Orange County, Calif. That level is lower, at less than three months, in Phoenix and San Francisco, and has dropped to just 1.9 months in Sacramento, Calif., according to figures compiled by John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

“The TV and the papers make it seem like there’s a ton of houses out there, but it’s been a shock to us,” said Andy Rysdam, 24, who is looking to buy his first home in Phoenix. He said he isn’t worried about buying and then seeing prices tumble “because it doesn’t seem like they can go much lower.”

But several markets still face supply-demand imbalances that could keep pressure on prices. New York’s Long Island had a 13-month supply of homes at the end of the fourth quarter. Nashville and Charlotte, N.C., had a 12-month supply, and northern New Jersey had a nearly 11-month supply.

Those numbers will rise if banks sell more foreclosed properties as they correct deficient mortgage-handling practices.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 170 Comments

January pending home sales up 14.2% year-over-year in the Northeast

From Crain’s NY:

Northeast, South lead US pending home resales

The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes rose more than forecast in January, indicating the industry that triggered the last recession is improving.

The index of pending home resales climbed 2% after a 1.9% decrease the prior month that was smaller than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said Monday in Washington. The median forecast of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 1% rise.

Buyers are returning to the market on the heels of faster job gains for three straight months, falling home prices and record low borrowing costs. At the same time, foreclosures are weighing on property values and construction, slowing the housing recovery.

“Affordability is keeping the market afloat,” Sean Incremona, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, said before the report. “We’ve seen a bottom for home sales. There’s a gradual upward trend in demand.”

Sales were projected to rise after an originally reported drop of 3.5% in December, according to the Bloomberg survey. January estimates ranged from a drop of 1.7% to an increase of 3.3%.

Compared with a year earlier, January pending home sales climbed 10.3%.

Two of four regions saw an increase in pending home sales, Monday’s report showed. That included a 7.6% gain in the Northeast and a 7.7% increase in the South. Pending purchases dropped in the West and Midwest.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 173 Comments

Affordability? Where?

From the Record:

With incomes down and rents up, housing is less affordable

Despite the recent drop in home prices, one-third of New Jersey’s working households struggle with severe housing costs, the Center for Housing Policy said Thursday.

According to the Washington, D.C.-based center, 32 percent of working households faced severe housing cost burdens, defined as spending more than half of their incomes on housing. That’s up from 28 percent as recently as 2008, as the recession began.

Nationally, 23.6 percent of working households paid more than half of their incomes for housing in 2010, up from 21.8 percent in 2008.

To keep up with housing costs, “a lot of people are forgoing needs as well as wants,” said Laura Williams, author of the report “Housing Landscape 2012.”

“Maybe you buy fewer groceries, or don’t get new clothes,” Williams said.

While a big drop in home values has made buying a house more affordable, that was offset by a decline in household incomes from 2008 to 2010. It’s even worse for renters, who are being squeezed on both sides, as their incomes dropped 4 percent from 2008 to 2010, and rents rose 4 percent in the same period.

Demand for rentals has increased during the housing bust, as tougher credit standards made it more difficult for households to buy, and as many families lost their homes to foreclosure. But construction of new rentals has not kept up with demand, in part because lenders have been cautious about financing residential building.

“There are two sides to housing affordability,” said Arnold Cohen of the Housing and Community Development Network of New Jersey. “One is what people are earning, and we know what’s happening with that picture, and the second is what’s available. … For a certain population of people, we need to look at how government can help, because the private market is not doing it.”

The Center for Housing Policy report defines working households as those with a household income of no more than 120 percent of the area’s median income. About half of the state experienced a “significant” decrease in affordability for working households between 2008 and 2010, the report said.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 130 Comments

Seller’s Market Buyer’s Market Renters Market! (and a squatter’s market too)

A Two-Parter from Bloomberg (Hat tip Chi!):

Why Renters Rule U.S. Housing Market (Part 1): A. Gary Shilling

The collapse in housing and the 33 percent plunge in house prices since 2006 are favoring renting over homeownership. This trend will dominate the housing market for the next four or five years, and put additional pressure on a weak economy.

Policy makers in Washington continue to have a soft spot for homeownership. Many recent government actions can be viewed as attempts to keep people in their homes, even owners who clearly can’t afford them. In addition to specific plans such as the Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, and the Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, the Obama administration is trying to revive the moribund housing sector by encouraging mortgage lenders and servicers to refinance loans at lower rates.

Why Renters Rule U.S. Housing Market (Part 2): A. Gary Shilling

In making my case for continued housing weakness, I’ve emphasized the negative effect of excess inventories on house sales, prices, new construction and just about every other aspect of residential real estate.

In housing, as in every goods-producing sector, excess inventories are the mortal enemy of prices. Lower prices are needed to unload surplus inventory, yet they also lead to the creation of more inventory by anxious sellers. The plight of house sellers and the reluctance of buyers are made worse by the realization that house prices can fall, and are falling for the first time in 70 years.

There are about 2 million excess housing units in the U.S., over and above normal inventory working levels. Before the housing collapse began in 2006, housing starts and completions were volatile but averaged about 1.5 million per year. So a 2 million excess is much more than the previous annual average build.

Furthermore, that excess is rising as homeownership declines as a result of foreclosures, unemployment, inability to meet mortgage standards or reluctance to own a depreciating asset.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, Politics, Risky Lending | 164 Comments

“Not quite time to celebrate”

From the Press of Atlantic City:

Sales of existing homes rise in January by 4.3%

Housing sales increased in January over the same period last year, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday, with sales of existing homes up 4.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.6 million sales.

Sales of single-family homes rose 3.8 percent; the number of first-time homebuyers, a key element for a housing recovery, went up slightly and represented 33 percent of all sales. A healthy market usually shows first-time buyers making up 40 percent of sales.

“Things are actually going well. I’m kind of excited about how the year is starting off,” Anthony D’Alicandro, president of the Atlantic City and County Board of Realtors and owner of Coldwell Banker Casa Bella Realtors in Linwood, said Wednesday.

Atlantic County saw a 1.3 percent increase in the sales of existing homes last month, D’Alicandro said, when including single-family dwellings, condominiums and townhouses.

Sales had declined sharply in the fourth quarter of 2011, not because of a lack of buyers, but due to a shortage of homes on the market, D’Alicandro said. That is because New Jersey was slower than other states to allow foreclosures to continue after the “robo-signing” scandal of late 2010.

“New Jersey is just starting to see a pickup in inventory,” D’Alicandro said.

Prices are likely to remain flat for some time, as a glut of foreclosures starts to hit the market, D’Alicandro said. Banks will work aggressively to get the distressed homes off their lists, and some have not been well-maintained.

Real estate agent Hader Rivas of Re/Max Atlantic in Northfield said he is getting busy showing homes to prospective buyers. In fact, he just sold a unit earlier Wednesday, he said.

“They’re finally coming off the fence and (realizing) there are a lot of great deals out there,” Rivas said. “Phones are ringing and people are looking.”

Sales declined somewhat in Ocean City, but a lot of people signed contracts to buy homes, D’Alicandro said. Once the deals close, the increases will show up in the February and March numbers, he said.

But an increasing number of contracts are being canceled, D’Alicandro said. Sometimes the buyer can’t get financing or an appraiser says the home is worth less than the agreed-upon price. But the biggest reason for ending contracts is that short sales — or selling the home for less than the money owed on it — either don’t get approved by the bank or the buyer becomes frustrated at how long the process takes.

In the remainder of Cape May County, 110 housing units of all types were sold in January, compared to 86 in January 2011, said Brian Groetsch, president of the Cape May County Association of Realtors and an agent with Re/Max At the Shore. The median sales price was down slightly, from $315,000 last year to $307,500 this year.

While the report is good news, it’s not quite time to celebrate, Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors of Holland, Pa., and Margate, said Wednesday in a statement. Many of the homes being sold are “distressed,” or foreclosures and short sales, and some segments of the market are still not doing well.

A continuing supply of distressed homes should keep prices low, Naroff said. Also, nearly 25 percent of sales were to investors, not people planning to use the unit as a primary residence. That is good for a growing demand for rental housing, but won’t give a boost to the industry as a whole.

“While the housing market is slowly improving, there is little reason to think that the non-distressed segment of the market is poised to take off,” Naroff said. “Until the housing problems are resolved, which could take another three or more years in some regions, don’t expect sales or construction to pick up rapidly.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 162 Comments

January home sales looking better? Or was it just the weather?

From Bloomberg:

Previously Owned U.S. Home Sales Probably Rose to Highest Since May 2010

Sales of previously owned U.S. houses probably rose in January to the highest level since May 2010, adding to signs the housing market is regaining its footing, economists said before a report today.

Purchases climbed 1.1 percent, a fourth straight monthly increase, to a 4.66 million annual rate from a 4.61 million pace in December, according to the median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

A strengthening job market, combined with record affordability driven by the drop in home prices and mortgage rates, will probably keep underpinning demand. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve and Obama administration are striving to find ways to lend the industry additional assistance amid concern that mounting foreclosures will continue to hinder the recovery.

“Things are beginning to pick up here,” said Kevin Cummins, an economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “We will see better home sales data in coming months. With healthier gains in payrolls, incomes should be picking up as well. That’s going to spill over.”

The National Association of Realtors’ data are due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Economists’ estimates ranged from 4.4 million to 4.91 million.

Existing-home sales, tabulated when a contract closes, climbed to 4.26 million last year, from 4.19 million in 2010. Demand peaked at 7.1 million in 2005 during the housing boom. In 2008, sales totaled 4.1 million, the least since 1995.

The fourth-warmest January on record may have boosted homebuyer traffic. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported the average temperature was 36.3 degrees Fahrenheit (2.39 Celsius), 5.5 degrees above the 1901-2000 long- term average.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 160 Comments

Mind of the buyer in 2012

From MarketWatch:

Coldwell Banker Real Estate Survey Reveals Sellers More Willing to Price Competitively in 2012

A recent survey over 600 Coldwell Banker Real Estate professionals in the United States revealed home buyers and sellers are adjusting expectations and “getting real” about real estate in 2012. More than half (51 percent) reported that sellers are more willing to price their homes more competitively than this time last year, and 45 percent said sellers are more willing to change the appearance of their homes to entice buyers than they were one year ago.

94 percent say their sellers are getting rid of clutter and making cosmetic updates, such as fresh paint and minor repairs.

78 percent agree clients are willing to “de-personalize” the home.

59 percent say sellers are even bringing in new home decorations or furniture to help make the home more appealing.

33 percent of surveyed agents say that a new or updated kitchen is the most important feature to homebuyers.

14 percent say the most important feature to homebuyers is an open floor plan, while 12 percent say it is a new or updated bathroom.

Only 1 percent of the real estate professionals surveyed say they believe that entertainment rooms or finished basements are the most important feature.

70 percent of real estate professionals say a new baby or growing family is the “most common,” or a “very common” reason buyers search for a new home.

69 percent say relocation for job reasons.
59 percent say marriage.
48 percent say divorce.
37 percent say retirement.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 119 Comments

A good week for housing news?

From Bloomberg:

Home Sales Probably Increased in January

Home sales in the U.S. probably climbed in January to the highest level since May 2010, adding to evidence the housing market is regaining its footing, economists said reports this week will show.

Combined purchases of new and existing houses rose to a 4.97 million annual rate from 4.92 million in December, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Claims for jobless benefits held near the lowest level since 2008, bolstering consumer confidence, other reports may show.

A strengthening job market, combined with record affordability driven by the drop in home prices and mortgage rates, will probably keep underpinning demand. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve and Obama administration are striving to find ways to lend the industry additional assistance amid concern that mounting foreclosures will continue to hinder the recovery.

“Home sales have bottomed, and from here on, we should see a moderate pickup,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York. “Hiring is improving slowly, so that’s helping.” More policy efforts are needed as “we still can’t rely on housing to recover on its own,” she said.

The National Association of Realtors will release data on existing house sales on Feb. 22. Purchases increased 0.9 percent to a 4.65 million annual rate, following a 4.61 million pace in December, according to the Bloomberg survey median.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 66 Comments