Foreclosure Filings up 25% in October

From CNN/Money:

85,000 homes lost to foreclosure in October

As government and industry scrambled to stem the housing crisis, another 84,868 homes were lost to foreclosure in October, according to a report released Thursday.

Last month 279,561 struggling borrowers received foreclosure filings, including default notices, notices of auction sales and bank repossessions, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosures. That’s a 5% increase from September, and up 25% from October 2007.

“October marks the 34th consecutive month where U.S. foreclosure activity has increased compared to the prior year,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, in a statement.

A total of 936,439 homes have been lost to foreclosure since the housing crisis hit in August, 2007.

Foreclosures hit a record high in August when 304,000 homes were in default and 91,000 families lost their houses. Since then, a number of states have adopted legislation to freeze foreclosures and give homeowners a chance to modify their mortgages. These laws have helped slowed the rate of foreclosures.

“The really sobering reality for us is that despite these various state programs that are artificially keeping the numbers down, we are still up 25% from a year ago,” said Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac.

Posted in Foreclosures, National Real Estate | 221 Comments

“We’re in for a pretty serious recession”

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Slump May Be Longest in Decades as Growth Fell Off `Cliff’

The U.S. downturn will be the longest in three decades, and the drought in consumer spending may be the worst ever, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The implosion of credit markets last month will cause the economy to shrink at a 3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter and decline at a 1.5 percent pace in the first three months of 2009, according to the median estimate of 59 economists surveyed Nov. 3 to Nov. 11. Following last quarter’s 0.3 percent drop, the slump would be the longest since 1974-75.

“The economy fell off a cliff in October,” said Richard Berner, co-head of global economics at Morgan Stanley in New York. “We had a huge financial shock that intensified the credit crunch and triggered a sharp downturn.”

Declines in household spending will extend into next year as the worst financial crisis in seven decades forces employers to keep cutting payrolls on top of the 1.2 million jobs already lost this year. President-elect Barack Obama has said the U.S. needs a second economic stimulus package “sooner rather than later.”

The pace of contraction this quarter would be the worst since 1990. Berner is among economists projecting the current slump will also be the most serious in a quarter century as the lack of credit causes a reinforcing, vicious circle of declines in confidence, spending and hiring.

“All of these adverse feedback loops are working to reinforce the downturn,” he said. “At the moment, it looks like the deepest U.S. recession since ’81.”

Some members of the group that officially determines when U.S. contractions begin and end are even more pessimistic.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 373 Comments

Tax Collections Down Statewide

From the Press of Atlantic City:

State down $73.1 million amid low home sales, gaming, retail

The housing-market downturn isn’t just affecting property owners looking to unload their homes; the state, too, is feeling the pinch, collecting $17.6 million less this year as fewer sales translated to less realty-transfer tax.

Collections of the fee, a sliding percentage based on the value of the home, fell nearly 17 percent over the past year, according to comparisons of July, August and September.

The state collected $86.2 million this year during the same three months, more than 15 percent less than expected.

But the realty tax is the only area in which the state is hurting. An array of similar figures shows the ongoing economic downturn collectively resulted in more than $73.1 million less in taxes collected.

While some tax collections went up, state declines included a gap of more than $56.4 million in sales tax, almost $12.8 million in lottery funds and more than $7.1 million in casino revenue taxes.

But while the economy may be worsening, it is unclear what the overall impact on the state’s finances and its $33 billion budget will be.

Speaking with reporters last week, state Treasurer David Rousseau said the state still looked at a potential $400 million budget deficit next year, repeating a figure initially used by Gov. Jon S. Corzine in an Oct. 15 speech before a joint session of the state Legislature as he laid out an ambitious recovery plan that would aid the neediest households while increasing short-term employment and pushing long-term development and keeping state spending in check.

Rousseau said he might update the potential deficit figures in the coming weeks.

He said last month it was difficult to diagnose the state’s fiscal health from one quarter’s figures. But some shortfalls during the three months have been steep.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 327 Comments

Pace of Jersey Teardowns slows

From the New York Times:

A Slower Pace in Teardowns

NO. 1 Teardown State. That has been New Jersey’s ranking from the National Trust for Historic Preservation each year since 2002, when the trust began keeping track of how many older houses in historic neighborhoods were being demolished to make way for new and often bigger houses. In August, the trust cited 85 communities — from Alpine to Fairlawn; from Morristown to Wykoff — where teardowns were heavily concentrated.

But since then, another trend has become a lot more noticeable — even in New Jersey. The overall economic situation and the sorry state of the housing market mean that fewer and fewer people are “throwing away perfectly good houses,” as one preservation-minded architect from Point Pleasant, Verity L. Frizzell, put it.

Ms. Frizzell said she had closely observed an instance in nearby Bay Head a few years ago in which a carefully restored Victorian was sold, demolished and replaced. “That upset a lot of people,” she said, “and there was a big push for a moratorium on teardowns there.” But some residents argued that “it would be taking away from their property value, and the zoning change was ultimately defeated.”

“Now,” Ms. Frizzell said in a cheerful tone, “the point is probably moot.” Since the beginning of the year, she added, she and half a dozen other Monmouth and Ocean County architects whom she informally surveyed by telephone have seen a decline of roughly 15 percent in the inquiries they receive about “teardown and build” projects.

“Just six months ago,” said Stacey Ruhle Kleisch, who is president-elect of the American Institute of Architects’ New Jersey chapter, “it was ‘the sky’s the limit’ with my clientele. Whenever possible, it was, ‘Tear it down, and make something new.’ ”

But that is definitely “grinding to a halt,” said Ms. Kleisch, whose firm GK&A Architects is based in Rutherford. “Now, it’s, ‘Let’s see what choices we can make to save money, immediately, and over the life cycle of a home.’ ”

ames Foerst is a Westfield town councilman who based his first run for office in 2003 on a pledge to slow down the pace of teardowns. He said he believed that tightening local limits on the permitted height and size of new houses three years ago had made some difference.

Even so, he said, the number of teardowns did not peak in Westfield until last year, when there were around 80.

“This year,” Mr. Foerst added, “we still have some. But I’ll be surprised if it reaches 30.”

It is certainly not as if the bulldozers had gone quiet around the state. Last summer, for instance, a frayed but once-grand 1910 colonial on Park Street in Montclair went down abruptly after a developer bought it. The new colonial now under construction — at 4,200 square feet, slightly smaller than the old house, but outfitted with a full array of modern technological conveniences — is being marketed by Re/Max for $1.85 million.

Peter Primavera, a vice chairman of the Urban Land Institute in New Jersey, says that although he perceives a lull in teardown activity, that does not translate into a halt.

“When the stock market is up,” Mr. Primavera said, “old houses go down. Now, things are bad on Wall Street and fewer houses are being taken down. But the overall dynamic is still in place of people wanting to build new, big McMansions when they have the money to do so.”

Mr. Primavera pointed out that there tended to be less restriction on teardown activity in poorer urban areas, where the populace and public officials can be overburdened with keeping streets safe and similar issues, and where there is a lack of resources to focus on the loss of older housing stock.

Posted in Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 124 Comments

Weekend Open Discussion

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

Posted in General | 446 Comments

“If it wasn’t for (them), I don’t think I would have sold the house.”

From the Daily Record:

Morris seniors get help moving on to the next phase of their lives

Vincent Keegan moved to Cedar Crest in Pompton Plains in late August, after Morris County’s largest senior retirement community helped him sell his Rockaway Township home.

Keegan, a widower who lived in the Birchwood Village development for 50 years, used $6,500 provided by Cedar Crest to spruce up his split-level house for potential buyers and pay his moving expenses.

“I didn’t think they were going to help me out that much,” said Keegan. “If it wasn’t for (them), I don’t think I would have sold the house.”

The help offered to Keegan is part of a series of financial incentives that Cedar Crest’s parent company, Erickson Retirement Communities, recently began to help prospective residents sell their homes in the slumping economy and move to the sprawling complex in Pequannock.

Some other retirement communities in Morris County, including Chelsea Senior Living in Montville and Franciscan Oaks in Denville, also are offering financial incentives to help potential residents combat the real estate slump, such as special reduced rates for assisted living.

At Cedar Crest, the programs offer residents three options: up to $3,000 towards moving expenses, up to $7,500 in Realtor’s fees, or a flexible payment program. Some residents can choose to participate in all three, said Cedar Crest sales director Ray Guarino.

All prospective residents are also contacted by Erickson Realty and Moving Services, which partners with Cedar Crest and offers advice on staging and sprucing up homes to sell, he said.

“We haven’t actually seen a downturn in business specifically linked to the lousy economy,” Kranz said. “But we have heard that there’s concern about the value of investments, especially 401(k)s, which are often the source of funding for an assisted living apartment.”

Posted in Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 376 Comments

Underwater? So what.

From the Wall Street Journal:

‘Underwater’ Need Not Mean Foreclosure

What does being “underwater” in your house really mean? Probably not that you’re drowning.

The number of underwater homeowners — those who owe more on their mortgages than their home is now worth — has been growing sharply since 2006 as real-estate prices have tumbled. By some estimates, between one in six and one in eight homeowners are in that position, most of them people who bought homes in the past few years or who put down small or no down payments.

This worries economists and policy makers, since owing more than your home is worth is the first step toward foreclosure. And it’s a concern to the rest of us because foreclosures are roiling the financial markets and, closer to home, they drag down our neighborhoods. (Most people who still have equity, by contrast, would rather sell their houses at a loss than lose what’s left of their investment.)

But experts who have studied previous sharp housing downturns in Texas, California, New York and Massachusetts say that being underwater, while unpleasant, doesn’t lead huge numbers of homeowners to default on their mortgages and end up in foreclosure.

Christopher L. Foote, Kristopher Gerardi and Paul S. Willen of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank studied more than 100,000 homeowners who were underwater in Massachusetts in 1991 and found that just 6.4% of them lost their homes to foreclosure over the next three years, according to a paper published in the September Journal of Urban Economics. The vast majority of homeowners simply continued paying as usual because they focused on the affordability of their payments, not on what they owed, and they believed home values would eventually recover.

The economists found that homeowners typically lost their homes only after at least two things happened: Their home values dropped and they either couldn’t afford the payments or stopped making payments after losing hope that prices would eventually recover.

Typically, homeowners fall behind after a job loss, divorce or serious illness. In the current downturn, foreclosures are higher than in previous cycles because more homeowners reached beyond their means to buy their homes and simply can’t keep up the payments. As a result, the Boston economists project that up to 8% of underwater Massachusetts homeowners could lose their homes between now and 2010 — a significant amount, but still not catastrophic.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 413 Comments

Election Day Open Discussion

First, go vote.

Second, talk about it here.

Third, assume the identity of a dead relative and vote again. (Hudson Country Residents only, please!)

Posted in Politics | 515 Comments

“We may look back and see these as the good old days.”

From the Record:

No place to hide from foreclosures

Foreclosures continue to rise in North Jersey, with thousands of homeowners in Bergen and Passaic counties in danger of losing their homes.

There were 2,422 foreclosure filings in Bergen County and 3,883 in Passaic from January through August of this year, according to RealtyTrac, which tracks foreclosures nationwide.

By contrast, in the same period last year, Bergen County saw 571 filings and Passaic, 2,594. Those numbers include all foreclosure actions, from the initial bank notice that a homeowner is late on mortgage payments, all the way through to a sheriff’s auction.

“It’s scary. It’s affecting a lot of people,” said Bill Maer, spokesman for the Passaic County Sheriff’s Department.

In all of 2007, 348 properties were auctioned in Passaic County; by mid-October of this year, that number stood at 548, and the county expects it to approach 700 by the end of the year.

In New Jersey, foreclosures have had the heaviest impact on urban and working-class towns. In those places, low-income homeowners stretched beyond their limits to buy houses, or borrowed against their homes to pay other bills.

But middle-class and even wealthy areas are not immune. Foreclosure actions have been filed this year in Woodcliff Lake, Tenafly, Franklin Lakes and Saddle River, among other affluent towns.

When properties are auctioned these days, they are usually bought back by the lenders. Because housing values have dropped in the last couple of years, most homes in foreclosure are now worth less than the amount owed on the mortgage.

Foreclosures are a tragedy for the family involved, of course, but they also affect nearby properties. When banks buy the homes at auction, they put them back on the market, usually priced aggressively for a quick sale. That tends to depress the prices of neighboring properties.

From the Philly Inquirer:

Stormy economy batters town budgets

In a region where a mere rumor of slippery roads can induce panic, David Brill is hoping for a mild, uneventful winter.

Brill, finance director of Tredyffrin Township, has budgeted $700,000 or so to remove snow and ice from the hilly, often-congested roads of the Main Line suburb.

He would be delighted not to spend it.

Like other town business managers throughout the region – and all over the country – Brill is confronting the economic storm that has battered bank accounts, stock portfolios and municipal budgets.

The ripple effects of a declining real estate market, tight credit, and the lower interest rates that have reduced yields on investments are likely to spell budget cuts and higher taxes for hundreds of thousands of property owners in the region in the new year.

Nationally, for the first time in at least 20 years, three major sources of municipal revenue – income taxes, sales taxes and property taxes – are down, said Christopher Hoene, director of policy and research for the National League of Cities.

It may be years before the full impact of the crisis hits town halls. “We’ve only begun to scratch the surface of what those implications are,” says William G. Dressel, executive director of the New Jersey State League of Municipalities. “Everybody’s suffering, and it’s the calm before the storm.”

Based on recent figures, levies collected on real estate sales are off 25 percent from last year in New Jersey and 17 percent in Pennsylvania.

In Cherry Hill, officials are warning that municipal taxes for property owners might go up 20 percent, or about $150 on average, in the new year. The municipal tax is 13 percent of the property-tax bill.

Towns all over New Jersey are feeling the aid cuts from Trenton, but Cherry Hill officials say it already is clear that the economic crisis is adding to the sting. Reduced building and permit fees and lower investment income from fallen interest rates have cost the township about $1.4 million, spokesman Dan Keashen said.

As in other municipalities, he said, Cherry Hill is scrambling for ways to lower costs. However, Keashen estimated that 80 percent of the township’s costs were locked in as salaries, benefits packages, debt service and capital expenditures. The situation is similar elsewhere.

Dressel said that in the months and years ahead, other shoes are likely to drop.

“It doesn’t take an economist or a wizard looking into the crystal ball to be able to see that if things don’t turn around soon, things are going to get considerably worse,” he said.

“We may look back and see these as the good old days.”

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 410 Comments

Weekend Open Discussion

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

Posted in General | 671 Comments

Follow the debt

From the Times of Trenton:

Bankruptcy lawyers’ business booming

With real estate activity in a deep freeze, a deviation of the famous mantra is being whispered in law firms throughout New Jersey: Follow the debt.

McCarter & English, the state’s largest law firm, will announce today it’s ramping up its workout practice by hiring Charles Stanziale, one of the state’s top bankruptcy lawyers, to concentrate on what promises to be a growth industry with the national and state economy in a recession.

“In these uncertain financial and economic times, there is an increased demand for lawyers with expertise in restructuring and debt management,” McCarter & English chairman Drew Barry said.

Lawyers, too, go where recessions take them. Personal bankruptcy filings are skyrocketing this year, and corporate filings are trending up, though not as dramatically, being that there is historically a one-year lag between an economic downturn and corporate insolvency.

Many McCarter real estate attorneys, who in recent years were consumed with acquisitions and closings, will now be assigned to help Stanziale liquidate real estate holdings in bankruptcy cases, Barry said.

“The current lack of real estate work will be made up for with restructuring work,” he said.

Cole Schotz in recent months has hired eight insolvency lawyers, bringing the number of that team to more than 30 in New Jersey, Wilmington, Baltimore and New York. They are looking to hire more, Sirota said.

One trend Sirota sees in the current economic downturn is a bit more humility from banks who are trying to keep their balance sheets in order.

“The (bankruptcy) filings would be even more fast and furious, except for the fact that lenders are now more willing to settle than go through liquidation in the courts,” he said.

Scrivo said his firm’s “robust” bankruptcy practice has recently added two attorneys in its Philadelphia office and is “always looking” to add more, particularly in this economic climate. The firm is involved in several commercial foreclosures that are headed to bankruptcy, he said.

“I’m guessing,” he said, “we’re going to see more.”

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 477 Comments

ZIRP Wednesday!

From Bloomberg:

Fed May Cut Rate to 1%, Signal Steps to Save Economy

The Federal Reserve may lower its benchmark interest rate to 1 percent today and signal further reductions to levels unseen since Dwight Eisenhower was president.

Tumbling commodities prices and weaker consumer spending are slowing inflation, which officials described as a “significant concern” at their last scheduled meeting in September. Tomorrow, the Commerce Department will probably report that the economy shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the most since the 2001 recession, economists predict.

The Fed “will be very aggressive,” said Mark Gertler, a New York University economist and research co-author with Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. “Inflation risks are off the table” and “the issue now is how bad the recession will be.”

He predicted the benchmark rate will be cut by half a point today, matching the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Bernanke and his team could push borrowing costs to zero by June if the credit crunch intensifies, Gertler said.

The Fed has already cut the benchmark rate from 5.25 percent in the past 13 months and created six lending programs channeling more than $1 trillion into the financial system. Banks are still reluctant to lend to each other and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is down almost 36 percent this year, even after yesterday’s surge.

The FOMC is scheduled to announce its decision on rates at about 2:15 p.m. in Washington.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 454 Comments

S&P Case-Shiller: Home Prices Down 16.6% in August

From Bloomberg:

August Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fall 16.6% From Year Ago

House prices in 20 U.S. cities declined in the year ended in August at the fastest pace on record as more properties went into foreclosure before the credit crisis deepened this month.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 16.6 percent in August from a year earlier, as forecast, after a 16.3 percent decline in July. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007, and year-over-year records began in 2001.

The decrease in property values, which helped boost sales last month to the highest level of the year, will probably intensify in coming months as the latest tightening of credit markets threatens to dry up mortgage financing. Prolonged price declines may push even more houses into foreclosure, weakening consumer spending and the economy.

“House prices will remain on a downward trend for some time and until they are low enough to stimulate sufficient demand to clear the market,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said before the report. “Prices will need to fall further.”

Home prices decreased 1 percent in August from the prior month after declining 0.9 percent in July, the report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to- month.

From the IHT:

S&P: Home prices post 17 pct annual drop in August

A closely watched index shows home prices tumbled by the sharpest annual rate ever in August.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index released Tuesday dropped a record 16.6 percent in August from the year-ago month, the largest drop since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index plunged 17.7 percent, its biggest decline in its 21-year history.

Both indices have recorded year-over-year declines for 20 consecutive months.

Prices in the 20-city index have plummeted more than 20 percent since peaking in July 2006. The 10-city index has fallen nearly 22 percent since its peak in June 2006.

No city in the Case-Shiller 20-city index saw annual price gains in August — for the fifth straight month.

From CNBC:

US Home Prices Plunge Record 16.6% in August

Prices of U.S. single-family homes plunged a record 16.6 percent in August from a year earlier, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

The composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 1.0 percent in August from July, S&P said in a statement on Tuesday.

S&P said its composite index of 10 metropolitan areas declined 1.1 percent in August from July for a 17.7 percent year-over-year drop, also a record.

From MarketWatch:

Home prices off record 16.6% in past year, Case-Shiller says

Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities dropped 1% in August compared with July and had fallen a record 16.6% from the previous year, according to the Case-Shiller home price index published Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s. Prices have fallen in all 20 cities compared with a year ago. Only two of the 20 cities showed price gains in August: Boston and Cleveland. The largest declines in August were found in the San Francisco metro area, where prices fell 3.5%. In the past year, Phoenix and Las Vegas have had the largest declines, down nearly 31% in both cities.

Posted in General | 358 Comments

Since when did owning a house become the American Dream?

Whatever happened to democracy, freedom, liberty, hard work, opportunity and dedication?

From the Press of Atlantic City:

American Dream is still alive, it’s just getting harder for the middle class to achieve it

The taupe-colored house in Pleasantville stands out for its spiffy newness. The front door is blizzard white and the wooden porch is clutter-free. Jorge and Maria Hernandez zero in on the house’s “for sale” sign.

Could this be home?

They digest the view before a real estate agent ushers them inside. Maria had been unsure from the outside, but now her affection for the house grows when she realizes just how much room there is: A walk-in closet in the master bedroom. A second bathroom for the children. A backyard – spacious enough for a deck.

The initial buyer decided to pull out at the last minute, leaving the seller in a bind, the agent says. The house is priced at $249,000, but the seller will negotiate.
“Maria, this one is right,” Jorge tells his wife. She prays on it.

Three months later, Maria is in her two-bedroom apartment on the Pleasantville-Absecon border, which she shares with her husband, young grandson and goddaughter.

“I want it for my grandson,” she says. “I want my baby to say, ‘This is my house.'”

They are another family trying to pull themselves up the economic rungs of the American middle class. Now, more than ever, it’s a harder climb and a longer haul.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 377 Comments

Weekend Open Discussion

Anecdote for history buffs.

Today marks the 79th anniversary of the official start of the Crash of ’29. Black Thursday, which took place on October 24th, 1929, was the first phase of the three phases which defined the Great Crash.

Strap in, it is going to be a wild ride. Dow and S&P futures are currently trading “limit down”, the maximum daily amount permitted. The Nikkei fell over 800 points last night (nearly 10 percent), European stocks fell more than 7% and the Russians have halted trading until Tuesday.

———————————–

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

Posted in General | 725 Comments