New Jersey Real Estate Report

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

From the Press of Atlantic City:

N.J. economic outlook sinks as joblessness rises

The Federal Reserve’s forecasting gauge for New Jersey’s economy has turned negative for the first time in 17 years.

The leading index of the Fed’s Bank of Philadelphia predicts the state’s economy will shrink 0.2 percent during the next nine months.

Jason Novak, senior economic analyst for the Philadelphia Fed who oversees the forecast, said Monday the outlook has dimmed mainly due to joblessness.

While the index includes information on housing permits, interest rates, business delivery times and more, the labor component is driving the decline. Joblessness in New Jersey jumped from 4.9 percent to 5.4 percent in May.

“It’s just this unemployment rate issue, that’s what concerns me,” Novak said. “It looks a lot like Pennsylvania and Delaware do.”

The weaker economies in those states turned their forecasts negative last year. He said New Jersey’s worsening outlook could be a blip that might be reversed next month or the start of a prolonged slowdown similar to neighboring states.

Building permits fell sharply in the state in the May index, released Friday, and delivery times turned negative. The most positive measure for the month was a slight increase in payrolls, Novak said.

Need a day off.

Now Open, Part II!

Rich was nice enough to provide us with our weekend fill of Bergen County comp killers! Thanks Rich!

Harrington Park FUTURE Comp Killer!

182 SCHRAALENBURGH RD
Purchased $600,000 9/21/2006
MLS# 2825662
Listed 6/24/2008
Current Asking: $579,000

Hillsdale FUTURE Comp Killer!

260 MAGNOLIA AVE
Purchased $510,000 10/2/2007
MLS# 2825778
Current Asking: $499,999 6/25/2008

Mahwah FUTURE Comp Killer!

290 MILLER RD
Purchased $540,000 9/30/2004
MLS# 2825724
Current Asking: $529,000 6/25/2008

Wyckoff FUTURE Comp Killer!

727 MOUNTAIN AVE
Purchased $562,500 8/15/2006
Current MLS# 2825519
OLP: $619,900 3/19/2007
Current Asking: $549,900 6/24/2008

Woodcliff Lake FUTURE Comp Killer!

212 GLEN RD
Purchased: $838,000 8/8/2006
Current MLS#: 2825921
OLP: $829,000 5/1/2008
Current Asking: $799,000 6/26/2008

Ridgewood FUTURE Comp Killer!

8 PATRICIA CT
Purchased: $1,105,000 12/1/2004
MLS#: 2721648
OLP: $1,275,000 5/30/2007
Current Asking: $1,040,000 6/26/2008

Lodi FUTURE Comp Killer!

286 FARNHAM AVE
Purchased: $760,000 8/4/2006
Current MLS#: 2826140 (also listed as a 2-family)
Original List: $839,555 11/29/2006
Current Asking: $697,500 6/27/2008

Hackensack FUTURE Comp Killer!

108 LAWRENCE ST
Purchased: $249,900 3/21/2005
MLS#: 2823262
Original List: $242,900 6/6/2008
Current Asking: $235,900 6/27/2008

Ho-Ho-Kus FUTURE Comp Killer!

160 BLAUVELT AVE
Purchased: $1,350,000 6/30/2004
MLS#: 2813578
Original List: $1,479,000 4/4/2008
Current Asking: $1,349,000 6/26/2008

Teaneck FUTURE Comp Killer!

42 GENESEE AVE
Purchase: $380,000 11/22/2004
MLS#: 2819298
Original List: $350,000 5/9/2008
Current Asking: $320,000 6/27/2008

Waldwick FUTURE Comp Killer!

79 E PROSPECT ST
Purchase: $369,000 4/4/2007
MLS#: 2746066
Original List: $392,000 11/16/2007
Current Asking: $339,000 6/27/2008

Dumont FUTURE Comp Killer!

5 BIRCH RD
Purchased: $410,000 6/23/2005
Purchased: $425,000 6/30/2007
Current MLS#: 2824085
Original List: $429,000 2/12/2008
Current Asking: $389,900 6/27/2008

Bogota FUTURE Comp Killer!

69 MCDOUGALL LN
Purchased: $460,000 1/11/2006
MLS#: 2826265
Current Asking: $400,000 6/23/2008

Ridgefield FUTURE Comp Killer!

511 LOWE AVE
Purchased: $595,000 3/2/2007
MLS#: 2826177
Current Asking: $539,000 6/27/2008

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

From MarketWatch:

Existing-home sales rise 2% in May

U.S. home and condo resales inched higher in May as prices continued to fall, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday.

Resales of U.S. houses and condos rose 2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.99 million in May from 4.89 million in April. It’s the highest sales pace since February.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to rise to 5 million.
…
Resales have sunk 15.9% in the past year and are down 31% from the peak in 2005. The pace of sales has been relatively stable since August at around a 5 million annual pace.
…
Inventories of unsold homes on the market fell 1.4% to 4.49 million, a 10.8-month supply at the May sales pace. The inventory figures are not seasonally adjusted. Inventories are up 2.4% in the past year.

The median sales price in May was $208,600, down 6.3% compared with a year ago.

“It’d be premature to say the improvement marks a turnaround,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate group, which continues to advocate for congressional action to boost home buying, including a first-time buyer tax credit and higher loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

From Bloomberg:

Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rose to 4.99 Million Rate in May

Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. rose in May from a record low, signaling depressed prices lured some buyers into the market.

Resales increased 2 percent to a 4.99 million annual rate, higher than forecast, from a 4.89 million pace in April, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price dropped 6.3 percent from May last year.

A drop in property values may have spurred demand in some of the most distressed areas, such as California and the Midwest. Even so, rising mortgage rates, a glut of unsold homes, and stricter borrowing rules indicate the real estate recession will persist for most of the year.

“There’s going to be a little more adjustment until we can say the worst is over,” Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “If you don’t have the confidence of a job and banks are reluctant to lend money,” housing will stay weak.

Economists forecast home resales would rise to a 4.95 million pace, according to the median of 72 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 4.75 million to 5.15 million.

April’s matched a record low for existing home sales.

Compared with a year earlier, sales were down 16 percent in May.

(Click to Enlarge)

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index – NY Metro Commutable

Low Tier (Under $332,377)
October 2006 – 259.75 (peak)
April 2007 – 255.94
April 2008 – 233.29
8.85% year over year decline
10.19% decline from peak

Mid Tier ($332,377 – $479,467)
September 2006 – 224.18 (peak)
April 2007 – 221.43
April 2008 – 200.83
9.30% year over year decline
10.42% decline from peak

High Tier (Over $479,467)
June 2006 – 193.24 (peak)
April 2007 – 188.57
April 2008 – 177.72
5.75% year over year decline
8.03% decline from peak

Aggregate Index
June 2006 – 215.83 (peak)
April 2007 – 211.61
April 2008 – 193.93
8.35% year over year decline
10.15% decline from peak

New Jersey Association of Realtors

New Jersey State Median Price
2006.Q3 – $385,200 (peak)
2007.Q1 – $361,300
2008.Q1 – $350,700
2.93% year over year decline
8.96% decline from peak
(seasonal effects come in to play here, this isn’t a valid comparison)

Source data: https://njrereport.com/files/NJ_home_prices.xls

Data geeks can find the underlying index data at the following S&P link:

April 2008 S&P Case Shiller HPI (XLS)

From Reuters:

Home prices extend record slide in April: S&P

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. home prices extended their record slide in April, with every top metropolitan area now posting annual losses and many showing double-digit declines, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price index report on Tuesday.

From Bloomberg:

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Fell 15.3% in April, Index Shows

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in April by the most on record, signaling the housing recession is far from over, a private survey showed today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 15.3 percent from a year earlier, less than forecast, after a 14.3 percent decline in March. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007. The group began keeping year-over-year records in 2001.

Mortgage defaults and foreclosures are adding to the glut of properties on the market, while stricter loan rules are making it more difficult for prospective buyers to get financing. The prolonged real-estate slump, along with higher fuel prices and a shrinking job market, is taking a toll on consumers and the economy.

“The weakness in prices is going to persist,” Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio, said before the report. “The mindset has yet to change. We’ll be looking at year-over-year declines in home prices well into 2009.”

Home prices decreased 1.4 percent in April from a month earlier after a 2.2 percent decline in March, the report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects, so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month to month.

The index was forecast to fall 16 percent from a year earlier, after a previously reported 14.4 percent drop in the 12 months ended in March, according to the median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from declines of 15.4 percent to 17 percent.

From CNBC:

US Home Prices Continue Record Declines in April

U.S. home prices extended their record slide in April, with every top metropolitan area now posting annual losses and many showing double-digit declines, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price index report.

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metro areas fell 1.4 percent in April from March and slumped by a record 15.3 percent over the year.

Economists expected prices for the 20-city index to fall 2.0 percent in the month and 15.9 percent from April 2007, according to the median forecast in a Reuters survey.

S&P said its composite index of 10 metro areas slid 1.6 percent in April for a record 16.3 percent annual drop.

Home prices in a dozen of the metro areas have fallen for eight straight months.

From the WSJ:

Great Depression Home-Price Declines

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index, which reflects prices in 20 U.S. cities, is expected Tuesday to be reported down 16% in April from a year earlier, worse than March’s 14.4% decline.

“Most of the severe price declines are appearing now,” says Mark Zandi, of Moody’s Economy.com, who says house prices are down nationwide about 15% from their 2006 peak. With heavy inventory still to plow through, “I expect prices, when all is said and done, will be down about 25% this time next year,” he says. That skid off the peak would rank it on par with the Great Depression.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Consumer Confidence in June Probably Fell to 15-Year Low

A report from S&P/Case-Shiller at 9 a.m. may show house prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas plunged 16 percent in April from a year earlier, the most since records began in 2001, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed. Forecasts ranged from declines of 15.4 percent to 17 percent.

From Forbes:

On the Watch: Home Prices

On Tuesday, two indexes measuring the change in home prices in April are likely to show declines, as a glut of unsold homes continues to pressure the struggling market.

The March Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city index showed home prices tumbling 14.4 percent in the month to the lowest level since the index was started in 2001.

Press release and datasets can be found at Standard & Poor’s:

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Now Open, Part II!

Weekend Comp Killers!

Summit Killer Comp Killer

MLS# 2100704 – 20 Caldwell Ave
Listed: 8/15/2008
OLP: $649,900
Last List Price: $599,000
DOM: 184
Expired
Foreclosed, REO
Sold: 6/19/2008
Sale Price: $390,000

Basking Ridge Comp Killer

51 Battalion Drive
Purchased: 9/26/2005
Purchase Price: $585,000
MLS# 2505733
Sold: 6/12/2008
Sale Price: $544,000

Chatham Comp Killer

35 Edgehill Ave
Purchased: 4/26/2006
Purchase Price: $1,025,000
MLS# 2499523
Original List Price: $1,140,000
Sold: 6/20/2008
Sale Price: $985,000

Cedar Grove Comp Killer

411 Holly Lane
Purchased: 8/30/2004
Purchase Price: $564,414
MLS# 2491976
OLP: $579,900
Sold: 6/20/2008
Sale Price: $520,000

Upper Saddle River Future Comp Killer

6 Northern Drive
Purchased: 7/6/2006
Purchase Price: $1,425,000
MLS# 2814543
Listed: 4/10/2008
OLP: $1,449,000
Current Asking: $1,349,000

Ridgewood Comp Killer
635 Albert Street
Purchased: 8/17/2005
Purchase Price: $609,000
MLS# 2802116
Listed: 1/16/2008
OLP: $599,000
Sold: 6/20/2008
Sale Price: $570,000